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Ironman Brasil 2015 (May 31st) – Predictions

IMBrasilYou can submit your own predictions for IM Brasil at IM-Predictions.

Updates (May 30th): After checkin, Guto Antunes, Anja Beranek, Diana Riesler and Eimear Mullan are no longer on the start list.

Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2005 Olaf Sabatschus (GER) 08:50:37 Joanna Zeiger (USA) 09:31:43
2006 Oscar Galindez (ARG) 08:15:19 Lisbeth Kristensen (DEN) 09:20:47
2007 Oscar Galindez (ARG) 08:21:09 Nina Kraft (GER) 09:12:40
2008 Eduardo Sturla (ARG) 08:28:24 Fernanda Keller (BRA) 09:42:50
2009 Eduardo Sturla (ARG) 08:13:39 Dede Griesbauer (USA) 09:10:15
2010 Luke McKenzie (AUS) 08:07:38 Tereza Macel (CZE) 09:19:12
2011 Eduardo Sturla (ARG) 08:13:12 Amy Marsh (USA) 09:07:49
2012 Ezequiel Morales (ARG) 08:22:40 Sofie Goos (BEL) 09:17:42
2013 Timothy O’Donnell (USA) 08:01:32 Amanda Stevens (USA) 09:05:53
2014 Igor Amorelli (BRA) 08:07:54 Sara Gross (CAN) 08:56:35

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Igor Amorelli BRA 00:47:38 04:26:06 02:52:07 08:07:54
2 Santiago Ascenco BRA 00:51:08 04:20:44 02:55:43 08:11:46
3 Marcel Zamora ESP 00:50:49 04:26:41 02:53:22 08:16:16

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Sara Gross CAN 00:55:41 04:49:42 03:06:12 08:56:35
2 Sofie Goos BEL 00:56:41 04:49:24 03:09:41 09:00:21
3 Ariane Monticeli BRA 00:59:28 04:55:21 03:02:53 09:02:44

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:01:32 Timothy O’Donnell 2013-05-26
Swim overall 00:42:26 Luke McKenzie 2010-05-30
Bike overall 04:20:44 Santiago Ascenco 2014-05-25
Run overall 02:49:31 Ezequiel Morales 2010-05-30
Total female 08:56:35 Sara Gross 2014-05-25
Swim female 00:45:48 Dede Griesbauer 2010-05-30
Bike female 04:46:38 Jessie Donavan 2014-05-25
Run female 03:02:53 Ariane Monticeli 2014-05-25

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Brasil is 17:19.

Race Adjustments for IM Brasil

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Athletes Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2006 17:51 01:58 04:01 00:49 21 17:51 01:58 04:01 00:49
2007 14:50 -00:15 06:43 03:00 24 16:20 00:51 05:22 01:55
2008 09:19 -06:37 11:23 01:14 25 14:00 -01:38 07:22 01:41
2009 17:23 -00:30 09:10 03:46 26 14:51 -01:21 07:49 02:12
2010 21:29 04:10 09:36 00:25 36 16:10 -00:15 08:11 01:51
2011 20:26 n/a n/a n/a 26 16:53 -00:15 08:11 01:51
2012 15:35 02:31 21:24 -04:24 23 16:42 00:13 10:23 00:48
2013 15:44 02:40 16:05 04:16 33 16:34 00:34 11:12 01:18
2014 23:14 00:24 21:43 05:46 29 17:19 00:33 12:31 01:52

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Brasil is a P-4000 race. It has a total prize purse of 150.000 US$. The winners will receive automatic Kona slots.

Male Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Overall
1 41 Brent McMahon CAN 07:52:47 08:18:15 00:45:58 04:17:42 02:44:06 (4)
2 3 Timothy O’Donnell USA 08:09:06 08:37:20 00:46:08 04:23:52 02:54:06 38
3 7 Marino Vanhoenacker BEL 08:10:16 08:27:46 00:48:56 04:20:05 02:56:15 15
4 38 Matt Trautman ZAF 08:12:55 08:30:24 00:48:49 04:24:29 02:54:38 17
5 6 Paul Matthews AUS 08:13:50 08:26:11 00:45:58 04:27:53 02:54:58 11
6 10 Denis Chevrot FRA 08:16:27 08:38:58 00:46:41 04:33:01 02:51:46 43
7 1 Igor Amorelli BRA 08:18:07 08:38:50 00:46:38 04:29:41 02:56:47 42
8 8 Tyler Butterfield BMU 08:19:47 08:38:58 00:49:05 04:30:57 02:54:44 43
9 9 Kyle Buckingham ZAF 08:19:54 08:33:42 00:48:34 04:24:40 03:01:39 29
10 2 Santiago Ascenco BRA 08:21:08 08:45:52 00:49:56 04:27:41 02:58:32 (66)
11 12 Daniel Fontana ITA 08:25:22 08:46:23 00:48:30 04:32:33 02:59:19 68
12 32 Mike Aigroz SUI 08:28:19 08:52:32 00:47:58 04:31:46 03:03:36 96
13 23 Per Bittner GER 08:28:20 08:44:33 00:49:18 04:33:14 03:00:48 62
14 29 Anton Blokhin UKR 08:28:36 08:48:21 00:48:14 04:35:32 02:59:51 81
15 4 Guilherme Manocchio BRA 08:29:22 08:55:33 00:48:09 04:38:19 02:57:53 112
16 19 Jonathan Shearon USA 08:30:03 08:59:54 00:52:15 04:29:46 03:03:01 129
17 11 Mario De Elias ARG 08:36:29 09:13:55 00:49:47 04:39:45 03:01:58 (189)
18 13 Thiago Vinhal BRA 08:39:10 09:04:00 00:47:36 04:50:30 02:56:03 148
19 40 Nick Baldwin SEY 08:39:58 08:57:33 00:52:44 04:36:55 03:05:18 120
20 16 Simon Billeau FRA 08:40:52 08:55:43 00:53:47 04:30:26 03:11:39 113
21 17 Balazs Csoke HUN 08:43:00 09:00:43 00:47:11 04:37:19 03:13:31 132
22 42 Michael Davidson ZAF 08:44:40 09:01:53 00:55:10 04:44:44 02:59:46 136
23 39 Karol Dzalaj SVK 08:46:00 09:07:26 00:53:16 04:36:47 03:10:57 158
24 26 Ciro Violin BRA 08:46:43 09:26:29 00:50:08 04:41:04 03:10:32 (243)
25 15 Marcel Bischof GER 08:46:57 09:19:14 00:55:06 04:40:43 03:06:08 208
26 20 Ivan Risti ITA 08:48:00 09:16:27 00:47:11 04:54:45 03:01:04 (197)
27 28 Frank Silvestrin BRA 08:48:11 09:10:19 00:48:19 04:44:16 03:10:37 176
28 36 Felipe De Oliveira Manente BRA 08:52:14 09:36:39 00:51:38 04:43:39 03:11:57 (282)
29 27 Guto Antunes BRA 09:03:27 09:35:35 00:50:55 04:58:25 03:09:06 (278)
30 18 Rene Vallant AUT 09:06:49 09:41:44 00:55:12 04:37:24 03:29:12 (304)
31 5 Fabio Carvalho BRA 09:18:39 10:04:38 00:46:43 05:01:08 03:25:47 378
32 25 Edmilson Pereira BRA 09:20:08 09:53:16 00:49:40 05:12:47 03:12:41 (347)
33 30 Christian Carletto ARG 09:23:18 09:50:49 00:54:09 04:56:09 03:27:59 (335)
34 37 Gaston Duran ARG 09:46:36 10:21:17 00:57:40 05:10:09 03:33:47 (428)
35 35 Andres Darricau Arg 09:54:00 10:26:01 00:54:51 04:58:43 03:55:26 (439)
14 Jason Britton CAN n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
21 Alejo Badino ARG n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
22 Jorge Vazquez MEX n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
24 Luan Ortiz Silva BRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
31 Sergio Carrettoni ARG n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
33 Bruno Lazaretti BRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Overall
1 64 Anja Beranek GER 09:04:53 09:32:43 00:52:03 04:49:36 03:18:14 (30)
2 59 Tine Deckers BEL 09:05:28 09:38:44 00:57:43 04:53:21 03:09:25 43
3 65 Elizabeth Lyles USA 09:06:14 09:30:10 00:55:55 05:01:34 03:03:45 26
4 68 Diana Riesler GER 09:07:03 09:33:41 00:56:51 04:48:23 03:16:49 31
5 53 Haley Chura USA 09:11:39 09:37:25 00:47:49 05:02:02 03:16:48 40
6 52 Amanda Stevens USA 09:12:26 09:35:48 00:49:35 04:55:30 03:22:20 34
7 71 Asa Lundstroem SWE 09:14:50 09:32:35 00:59:28 04:57:02 03:13:20 29
8 54 Ariane Monticeli BRA 09:18:17 09:53:18 01:00:13 05:05:20 03:07:45 72
9 76 Mareen Hufe GER 09:19:10 09:37:00 00:59:24 04:52:01 03:22:45 39
10 60 Lucie Reed CZE 09:20:19 09:47:03 00:50:06 05:04:01 03:21:11 55
11 77 Eimear Mullan IRL 09:21:20 09:52:51 00:58:27 05:05:52 03:12:01 70
12 70 Ashley Clifford USA 09:23:50 09:40:16 00:54:06 05:14:22 03:10:22 46
13 61 Astrid Ganzow GER 09:24:08 09:43:53 00:58:17 04:58:53 03:21:58 49
14 66 Laurel Wassner USA 09:24:36 09:46:54 00:53:51 05:14:04 03:11:42 53
15 67 Mariana Andrade BRA 09:31:32 10:16:16 00:59:08 04:56:27 03:30:56 117
16 58 Mette Pettersen Moe NOR 09:34:55 10:01:39 00:52:05 05:02:20 03:35:31 (88)
17 72 Karen Thibodeau CAN 09:40:11 10:05:18 00:55:24 05:15:01 03:24:46 97
18 74 Ana Lidia Borba BRA 09:40:27 10:25:02 00:54:56 04:59:30 03:41:01 143
62 Laura Barrena ARG n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

KPR Situation

As a Regional Championship, Basil is a P-4000 race so a lot of athletes that are trying to qualify for Kona will be on the start line.

Female

In order to qualify for Kona, Liz Lyles (4.390) basically needs an Ironman finish – even if she is looking for a much better result in Brasil.

In addition to Liz, there is a large number of athletes that want to score the points they still need for a Kona slot. Ashley Clifford has currently the most points (4.130-1.070) but as she already raced three IMs she is effectively sitting at 3.060 points. Asa Lundstroem (3.740-405) has also three IMs. Ariane Monticelli (3.810), Haley Chura (3.240), Mareen Hufe (3.155) and Astrid Ganzow (2.520) can add another IM to their score. Anja Beranek (2.170) and Amanda Stevens (2.140) would need at least a podium finish to have enough points for a Kona slot.

We also have Diana Riesler (4.270), Mette Moe (2.060) and Eimear Mullan (2.000), but it’s doubtful that they will start in Brasil as they are also on the list for Lanzarote just one week before Brasil.

Male

Matt Trautmann (5.525) and Brent McMahon (4.380) should already be safe for a Kona slot at this point, they are in Brasil to gain more racing experience and maybe win another Ironman.

Things are more critical for athletes that need more points: Guilherme Manochio (2.685), Denis Chevrot (2.500), Tim O’Donnell (2.230), Igor Amorelli (1.885) and Paul Matthews (1.810) can add one more IM to their score. Others have already raced three IMs, so their worst score will get bumped from the total. This includes Per Bittner (3.030-540), Nick Baldwin (2.400-540) and Karol Dzalaj (2.349-305).

In addition to these, almost all athletes have a chance to qualify for Kona with a podium finish in Brasil, this includes Kona 2014 participant Kyle Buckingham (1.330).

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

Marino Vanhoenacker has announced that he won’t be targeting Kona any more, but still wants to win a few more Ironman races – he’s my favorite for Brasil. He’ll be competing against athletes that need Kona points (as noted above), especially “TO” Tim O’Donnell, Paul Matthews, Denis Chevrot or Igor Amorelli. Brent McMahon and Matt Trautmann can race without any points pressure – they’ll be focused on another Ironman win:

  • Marino Vanhoenacker: 24% (3-1)
  • Timothy O’Donnell: 23% (3-1)
  • Brent McMahon: 19% (4-1)
  • Paul Matthews: 9% (10-1)
  • Denis Chevrot: 8% (11-1)
  • Matt Trautman: 5% (18-1)
  • Igor Amorelli: 4% (25-1)

Female Race Participants

It’s very hard to pick a favorite in the pretty even field at Brasil. Based on the number I see a slight advantage for Tine Deckers, but she had two DNFs in her last IMs in Mont Tremblant and South Africa. Haley Chura seems to be on a good upward path, her last IM was a win in Fortaleza. Liz Lyles had great results in 2014 (2nd in Germany and 7th in Kona) and showed her good form by winning Wildflower. Anja Beranek has taken a bit of a break from IM racing (her last was a DNF in Kona 2013) – it will be interesting to see what she’ll be able to do. Amanda Stevens will be close to the front for most of the day, but she’ll need a great run to repeat her 2013 win.

  • Tine Deckers: 35% (2-1)
  • Haley Chura: 21% (4-1)
  • Diana Riesler: 13% (7-1)
  • Elizabeth Lyles: 10% (9-1)
  • Anja Beranek: 9% (10-1)
  • Amanda Stevens: 6% (17-1)

Ironman Lanzarote 2015 (May 23rd) – Predictions

IMLanzarote

Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2005 Ain-Alar Juhanson (EST) 08:55:38 Virginia Berasategui (ESP) 10:09:40
2006 Ain-Alar Juhanson (EST) 08:54:14 Karin Thuerig (SUI) 09:52:45
2007 Eneko Llanos (ESP) 08:49:39 Tiina Boman (FIN) 09:58:42
2008 Bert Jammaer (BEL) 08:59:40 Bella Bayliss (GBR) 10:02:30
2009 Bert Jammaer (BEL) 08:54:03 Bella Bayliss (GBR) 09:54:58
2010 Eneko Llanos (ESP) 08:37:43 Catriona Morrison (GBR) 10:03:53
2011 Timo Bracht (GER) 08:30:34 Rachel Joyce (GBR) 09:28:12
2012 Victor Del Corral (ESP) 08:44:39 Michelle Vesterby (DEN) 09:58:06
2013 Faris Al-Sultan (GER) 08:42:40 Kristin Moeller (GER) 09:37:34
2014 Romain Guillaume (FRA) 08:47:39 Lucy Gossage (GBR) 09:41:40

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Romain Guillaume FRA 00:47:31 04:56:07 02:57:55 08:47:39
2 Miquel Blanchart Tinto ESP 00:49:58 05:13:53 02:48:12 08:58:06
3 Bert Jammaer BEL 00:47:51 05:02:55 03:03:35 09:00:44

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Lucy Gossage GBR 00:55:37 05:31:38 03:07:20 09:41:40
2 Susan Blatt GER 00:56:28 05:27:07 03:14:24 09:44:59
3 Corinne Abraham GBR 00:56:23 05:42:53 03:06:10 09:51:41

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:30:34 Timo Bracht 2011-05-21
Swim overall 00:46:15 Luc Van Lierde 2006-05-20
Bike overall 04:40:58 Maik Twelsiek 2010-05-22
Run overall 02:44:29 Gerrit Schellens 2005-06-04
Total female 09:28:12 Rachel Joyce 2011-05-21
Swim female 00:50:40 Hillary Biscay 2010-05-22
Bike female 05:26:23 Tara Norton 2010-05-22
Run female 02:58:37 Kristin Moeller 2013-05-18

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Lanzarote is – 12:47.

Race Adjustments for IM Lanzarote

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Athletes Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2006 -03:59 02:16 -19:18 01:23 25 -03:59 02:16 -19:18 01:23
2007 -11:15 -01:06 -09:09 -04:34 31 -07:37 00:35 -14:14 -01:36
2008 -13:30 00:45 -18:45 04:59 37 -09:35 00:38 -15:44 00:36
2009 -09:00 -00:10 -14:27 03:47 40 -09:26 00:26 -15:25 01:24
2010 -07:03 01:31 -09:52 00:21 32 -08:57 00:39 -14:18 01:11
2011 -08:44 02:19 -16:36 04:49 20 -08:55 00:56 -14:41 01:47
2012 -18:10 00:50 -17:44 04:03 16 -10:14 00:55 -15:07 02:07
2013 -19:20 00:20 -19:52 03:26 18 -11:23 00:51 -15:43 02:17
2014 -24:00 00:47 -18:38 -01:35 30 -12:47 00:50 -16:02 01:51

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Lanzarote is a P-2000 race. It has a total prize purse of 25.000 US$.

Male Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Overall
1 4 Christian Kramer GER 08:42:37 08:33:30 00:46:44 04:56:33 02:54:20 28
2 1 Miquel Blanchart Tinto ESP 08:46:32 08:42:53 00:48:01 05:04:58 02:48:32 55
3 3 Konstantin Bachor GER 08:47:41 08:45:11 00:48:24 04:47:40 03:06:37 62
4 11 Alessandro Degasperi ITA 08:49:35 08:47:44 00:50:29 04:57:30 02:56:36 (75)
5 2 Bert Jammaer BEL 08:51:42 08:48:10 00:48:08 04:59:26 02:59:08 78
6 16 Marc Duelsen GER 08:51:45 08:40:27 00:51:42 04:55:37 02:59:25 51
7 10 Stephen Bayliss GBR 08:55:59 08:59:06 00:46:59 05:01:47 03:02:13 (127)
8 12 Joe Skipper GBR 08:56:05 08:47:31 00:52:45 05:04:23 02:53:58 74
9 13 Sergio Marques POR 09:00:28 09:02:01 00:53:10 05:08:18 02:54:01 140
10 48 Swen Sundberg GER 09:04:12 08:48:40 00:51:48 05:02:21 03:05:03 83
11 35 Cedric Lassonde FRA 09:09:50 09:07:55 00:53:03 05:03:43 03:08:04 (164)
12 15 Guy Crawford NZL 09:15:31 09:08:03 00:47:48 05:00:25 03:22:17 164
13 36 Mauro Baertsch SUI 09:15:55 09:07:42 00:53:26 05:15:33 03:01:55 163
14 31 Mark Oude Bennink NED 09:16:11 09:08:47 00:47:38 05:06:16 03:17:18 (171)
15 18 Dominik Berger AUT 09:17:18 09:02:38 00:47:49 05:07:01 03:17:28 144
16 23 Daniel Herlbauer AUT 09:17:46 09:15:50 00:53:13 05:09:20 03:10:13 (200)
17 49 Miguel Platero ESP 09:29:38 09:30:29 00:52:01 05:08:19 03:24:18 (258)
18 41 Craig Twigg GBR 09:35:17 09:46:51 00:52:15 05:04:34 03:33:28 320
19 46 Hendrik-Jan Verhaegen BEL 09:35:42 09:31:11 00:55:59 05:15:36 03:19:07 (262)
20 45 James Brown GBR 09:36:54 09:31:23 01:00:07 05:18:43 03:13:04 263
21 34 Herve Banti MEX 09:39:20 09:48:55 00:51:32 05:24:07 03:18:41 (328)
22 32 Henrik Oftedal NOR 09:41:08 09:32:04 01:00:35 05:14:59 03:20:34 267
23 37 Roman Deisenhofer GER 09:44:04 09:42:02 00:52:29 05:07:42 03:38:54 (309)
24 20 Marcus Hultgren SWE 09:47:26 09:42:53 00:56:58 05:22:40 03:22:48 (310)
25 50 Ivan Kharin RUS 10:04:43 10:02:58 01:06:24 05:27:14 03:26:04 (378)
26 33 Remmert Wielinga NED 10:25:23 10:30:40 01:11:45 05:24:17 03:44:20 (456)
9 Will Clarke GBR n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
17 Gilian Oriet SUI n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
38 Rayco Marrero avero ESP n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
39 Guillaume Jeannin FRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
40 Frederic Schaffner FRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
42 Tom Angerer AUT n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
43 Christoph Schlagbauer AUT n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
44 Owen Cummins IRL n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
47 Antonio Cardona ESP n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Overall
1 21 Diana Riesler GER 09:38:32 09:33:41 00:56:48 05:19:00 03:17:44 30
2 22 Michi Herlbauer AUT 09:38:40 09:36:39 00:53:44 05:28:24 03:11:32 (38)
3 19 Lisa Roberts USA 09:51:42 09:35:54 01:04:05 05:34:41 03:07:57 35
4 6 Eimear Mullan IRL 09:53:39 09:52:51 00:58:19 05:37:46 03:12:35 71
5 26 Verena Walter GER 10:00:49 09:58:44 00:57:56 05:30:49 03:27:04 (85)
6 14 Kate Bevilaqua AUS 10:04:11 10:20:47 00:54:43 05:36:48 03:27:40 (137)
7 28 Evi Neuscheler GER 10:04:33 09:54:16 01:02:07 05:30:40 03:26:45 75
8 5 Saleta Castro ESP 10:07:16 10:15:01 00:54:56 05:43:39 03:23:41 (117)
9 24 Mette Pettersen Moe NOR 10:08:01 10:01:39 00:52:02 05:34:27 03:36:32 (91)
10 8 Shiao-yu Li TWN 10:11:04 10:00:40 01:06:33 05:42:19 03:17:12 86
11 29 Caroline Livesey GBR 10:18:11 10:16:02 01:00:38 05:46:43 03:25:50 (120)
12 27 Nicole Woysch GER 10:32:22 10:22:34 00:57:23 05:46:57 03:43:02 142
13 7 Amy Forshaw GBR 10:35:52 10:28:18 01:03:09 05:57:39 03:30:05 152
14 25 Alena Stevens SVK 10:49:10 10:46:55 01:02:32 06:00:36 03:41:02 (165)
30 Anne Jensen DNK n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
51 Corina Hengartner SWI n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

Christian Kramer has to be considered the favorite in this field, but the hard bike course could help strong bikers Konstantin Bachor build a big lead. Miguel Blanchard Tinto has finished second here last year and would love to be the next Spanish winner in Lanzarote after Eneko Llanos and Victor Del Corral.

  • Christian Kramer: 34% (2-1)
  • Konstantin Bachor: 21% (4-1)
  • Miquel Blanchart Tinto: 19% (4-1)
  • Stephen Bayliss: 8% (12-1)
  • Sergio Marques: 6% (15-1)
  • Bert Jammaer: 5% (19-1)
  • Marc Duelsen: 4% (27-1)
From a KPR perspective a win or second place would be enough for Miquel (2.560 points), Christian (2.455) or Konstantin (2.240) to secure a Kona slot. Will Clarke (1.665 points) is racing his first IM and could shake up things.

Female Race Participants

Based on her previous results, Diana is the clear favorite, but Eimear and Lisa are also strong contenders for the win. Michi Herlbauer has only one IM in her resume, but that is a sub-9 in Austria. Kate Bevilaqua has struggled with a string of DNFs – hopefully she’ll be able to complete an Ironman again!

  • Diana Riesler: 50% (1-1)
  • Eimear Mullan: 16% (5-1)
  • Lisa Roberts: 14% (6-1)
  • Michi Herlbauer: 12% (7-1)
  • Kate Bevilaqua: 4% (23-1)

Diana (4.090 points) is quite close to qualifying for Kona. For Amy Forshaw (2.180), Shiao Yu-Li (2.100), Mette Moe (2.060) and Eimear (2.000) even a win in Lanzarote won’t be enough to qualify.

Ironman Texas 2015 – Analyzing Results

Race Conditions

As usual, the race in the Woodlands was hot and steamy, especially as the race progressed. The swim and bike were pretty much as they always are – the bike times were fast as expected. During the run, the athletes struggled a bit more – the run adjustment was -3:51 and we saw a pretty large number of DNFs. This year’s race had an overall adjustment of 8:36 and leading to a new course rating of 11:17.

The conditions lead to an interesting mix of records:

  • a new men’s bike course record by Joe Skipper – his 4:10:07 was the third fastest bike leg in an Ironman ever (only Andrew Starykowicz posted two faster splits in Florida), improving on the old record by Mathias Hecht (4:18:17 in 2012)
  • a new women’s bike course record by Corinne Abraham – her 4:40:39 improved on the old record by Rachel Joyce (04:42:29 in 2013)
  • a new overall male course record by Matt Hanson – his 8:07:03 improved on Eneko Llanos’ 8:08:20 from 2011
  • a new fastest 2015 IM marathon by Kelly Williamson in 3:01:02, improving on Susie Cheetham’s 3:03:38 in SouthAfrica

Male Race Results

Joe Skipper and Lionel Sanders put out two spectacular bike rides, and even with having to make up some time after the swim, they had a decent lead going into the run. Lionel quickly looked like he was working hard and was slowly dropping back from Joe. Matt Hanson was quickly working his way to the front, and the cameras were surprised when he was taking the lead around the half-marathon mark.

TexasMatt

He slowed down a bit on the third run loop, but won by almost ten minutes in front of Joe Skipper. Third place went to veteran racer Ronnie Schildknecht, who had one of only three sub-3h marathons.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected Prize Money
1 Matt Hanson USA 00:55:02 04:21:25 02:45:47 08:07:03 -28:02 US$ 30000
2 Joe Skipper GBR 00:55:09 04:10:07 03:04:35 08:16:26 -17:58 US$ 15000
3 Ronnie Schildknecht SUI 00:55:07 04:24:27 02:55:54 08:21:03 02:08 US$ 8000
4 Lionel Sanders CAN 00:57:19 04:11:25 03:11:22 08:24:54 n/a US$ 6500
5 Pedro Gomes POR 00:54:48 04:32:02 02:54:43 08:26:42 -08:22 US$ 5000
6 Jeremy Jurkiewicz FRA 00:48:45 04:31:34 03:05:45 08:31:30 05:08 US$ 3500
7 Matthew Russell USA 00:59:35 04:27:01 03:00:51 08:33:28 -09:11 US$ 2500
8 Ben Hoffman USA 00:49:29 04:20:38 03:18:30 08:33:55 11:00 US$ 2000
9 David Plese SLO 00:54:59 04:21:20 03:14:37 08:36:32 05:50 US$ 1500
10 Jarmo Hast FIN 00:52:57 04:37:12 03:03:41 08:39:48 00:47 US$ 1000
11 Matthew Curbeau USA 00:55:05 04:31:32 03:17:11 08:49:29 -27:21
12 Raymond Botelho USA 00:55:12 04:30:03 03:46:43 09:19:07 -01:53
13 Patrick Schuster USA 01:06:56 04:38:27 03:46:49 09:38:36 12:09
14 Timothy Clarke USA 00:58:14 04:53:08 03:41:36 09:39:23 n/a
15 Peter Kotland CZE 01:03:09 04:46:06 03:44:29 09:40:54 -08:41
16 Mario Radevic DEU 01:03:58 04:51:35 03:39:42 09:42:07 n/a
Todd Skipworth AUS 00:48:05 04:28:12 DNF
Barrett Brandon USA 00:48:07 04:28:39 DNF
Jonathan Shearon USA 00:55:08 04:22:25 DNF
Andreas Raelert GER 00:49:58 04:30:26 DNF
Chad Holderbaum USA 00:55:10 04:40:47 DNF
Faris Al-Sultan GER 00:48:44 04:47:17 DNF
Victor Del Corral ESP 01:03:06 04:37:37 DNF
Patrick Wheeler USA 00:55:01 04:50:44 DNF
Jordan Rapp USA 00:55:05 04:53:35 DNF
Patrice Brisindi CAN 01:01:39 05:13:33 DNF
Jorge Vazquez MEX 00:54:54 07:18:50 DNF
Chris McDonald AUS 00:54:57 DNF

As the winner, Matt Hanson gets an automatic Kona slot. Ben Hoffmann (9.650), Lionel Sanders (7.680), and Ronnie Schildknecht (5.310) are in safe Kona territory. Pedro Gomes (4.090) and Joe Skipper (4.015) are closer but should be fine. Jeremy Jurkiewicz (2.755) and Matt Russell (2.160) still have to race for more points.

Female Race Results

Angela Naeth had to make up six minutes after the swim, but she quickly joined Rachel Joyce and Leanda Cave at the front. Angela and Leanda then rode away and came into T2 within seconds of each other. On the run, Angela was running just a little bit faster than Leanda and won the race by roughly three minutes.

TexasAngela

Leanda finished second and also went sub-9. Rachel finished in third place with a decent 3:14 run.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected Prize Money
1 Angela Naeth CAN 00:59:35 04:41:38 03:09:13 08:55:19 -24:55 US$ 30000
2 Leanda Cave GBR 00:53:13 04:47:43 03:12:02 08:58:12 -17:44 US$ 15000
3 Rachel Joyce GBR 00:53:08 04:52:35 03:14:00 09:05:02 06:42 US$ 8000
4 Kelly Williamson USA 00:55:17 05:06:43 03:01:02 09:08:34 -13:55 US$ 6500
5 Corinne Abraham GBR 01:03:24 04:40:39 03:22:45 09:12:20 -03:06 US$ 5000
6 Sarah Piampiano USA 01:04:04 04:49:52 03:13:54 09:13:47 -21:00 US$ 3500
7 Heather Wurtele CAN 00:56:15 04:51:35 03:21:55 09:15:11 -07:07 US$ 2500
8 Katy Blakemore USA 00:53:13 04:54:51 03:24:22 09:18:02 -10:58 US$ 2000
9 Rebecca Preston AUS 00:59:45 04:58:36 03:22:11 09:26:23 -03:30 US$ 1500
10 Sofie Goos BEL 00:59:37 04:55:50 03:26:44 09:27:58 00:11 US$ 1000
11 Heather Jackson USA 00:59:39 04:55:08 03:42:49 09:43:27 34:47
12 Tami Ritchie USA 00:54:17 05:19:29 03:25:53 09:46:56 -40:56
13 Jocelyn Mccauley USA 00:59:48 05:02:21 03:39:52 09:49:06 -00:04
14 Katharina Grohmann GER 01:15:59 05:12:42 03:20:42 09:54:40 -00:05
15 Jessica Meyers USA 00:59:03 05:02:49 03:48:13 09:55:46 09:02
16 Olesya Prystayko UKR 01:06:21 05:32:56 04:13:38 10:59:26 57:21
17 Caroline Martineau CAN 01:09:11 05:43:51 04:43:52 11:46:22 n/a
Bree Wee USA 00:56:16 04:58:34 DNF
Kaitlin Anelauskas USA 00:55:57 05:06:53 DNF
Natasha Van der Merwe USA 01:03:14 07:30:40 DNF
Corrie Kristick USA 00:55:22 DNF
Keiko Tanaka JPN 00:55:59 DNF
Tamara Kozulina UKR 01:03:27 DNF
Camilla Lindholm SWE 01:26:10 DNF

As the winner, Angela Naeth gets an automatic Kona slot, similar for Leanda Cave as the 2012 Kona champion. From a points perspective, Rachel Joyce (11.100) and Heather Wurtele (7.280) are clearly ahead of the projected cutoff. Corinne Abraham (4.725) and Kelly Williamson (4.540) still need a few more points, potentially from 70.3s. Heather Jackson (3.800) and Sarah Piampiano (3.395) have to consider racing another IM if they want to qualify.

Photo Credit: Kelly Burns Gallager, follow Kelly on Twitter 

Ironman Texas 2015 (May 16th) – Predictions

Let us know your top picks for IM Texas at IM Predictions!

IMTexasUpdate: Unfortunately, Linsey Corbin had to withdraw a second time within a few days before a Regional Championship. Other DNS are Trevor Delsaut and Danielle Mack.

Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2011 Eneko Llanos (ESP) 08:08:20 Catriona Morrison (GBR) 08:57:51
2012 Jordan Rapp (USA) 08:10:44 Mary Beth Ellis (USA) 08:54:58
2013 Paul Amey (GBR) 08:25:06 Rachel Joyce (GBR) 08:49:14
2014 Bevan Docherty (NZL) 08:09:37 Kelly Williamson (USA) 08:54:42

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Bevan Docherty NZL 00:47:55 04:26:59 02:49:17 08:09:37
2 Matthew Russell USA 00:55:18 04:21:28 02:52:44 08:14:53
3 Justin Daerr USA 00:52:09 04:28:24 02:52:16 08:17:29

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Kelly Williamson USA 00:51:49 05:03:51 02:54:46 08:54:42
2 Julia Gajer GER 00:52:36 04:53:43 03:09:34 09:00:51
3 Amber Ferreira USA 00:52:58 05:02:16 03:11:24 09:11:48

In 2012, Haley Chura swam a 50:22 when she was still an agegrouper.

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:08:20 Eneko Llanos 2011-05-21
Swim overall 00:46:20 John Flanagan 2011-05-21
Bike overall 04:18:17 Mathias Hecht 2012-05-19
Run overall 02:41:38 Matt Hanson 2014-05-17
Total female 08:49:14 Rachel Joyce 2013-05-18
Swim female 00:51:49 Kelly Williamson 2014-05-17
Bike female 04:42:29 Rachel Joyce 2013-05-18
Run female 02:51:46 Caitlin Snow 2012-05-19

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Texas is 11:58, mainly because of a fast bike leg.

Race Adjustments for IM Texas

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Athletes Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2011 11:49 -02:46 16:30 -01:41 38 11:49 -02:46 16:30 -01:41
2012 12:31 -01:24 13:44 02:53 23 12:10 -02:05 15:07 00:36
2013 06:58 -01:46 14:28 02:24 24 10:26 -01:59 14:54 01:12
2014 16:33 00:33 15:59 03:53 36 11:58 -01:21 15:10 01:52

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Texas is a P-4000 race. It has a total prize purse of 150.000 US$. As a Regional Championship, the Pro winners receive an automatic Kona slot.

Male Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Overall
1 1 Jordan Rapp USA 08:12:26 08:26:02 00:53:08 04:17:01 02:57:18 11
2 6 Andreas Raelert GER 08:14:14 08:26:06 00:50:18 04:25:13 02:53:42 12
3 2 Faris Al-Sultan GER 08:16:09 08:33:53 00:49:19 04:23:00 02:58:49 (30)
4 4 Ben Hoffman USA 08:18:33 08:31:06 00:50:39 04:26:44 02:56:10 21
5 8 Ronnie Schildknecht SUI 08:18:53 08:26:54 00:53:00 04:25:44 02:55:08 14
6 3 Justin Daerr USA 08:23:25 08:43:24 00:54:11 04:28:54 02:55:20 56
7 9 Victor Del Corral ESP 08:25:07 08:34:21 00:56:51 04:31:26 02:51:50 32
8 22 Jeremy Jurkiewicz FRA 08:26:58 08:34:31 00:49:08 04:37:41 02:55:09 34
9 5 Chris McDonald AUS 08:28:29 08:49:52 00:54:17 04:28:09 03:01:02 84
10 24 David Plese SLO 08:28:35 08:38:56 00:54:41 04:30:34 02:58:19 45
11 11 Pedro Gomes POR 08:29:53 08:53:39 00:51:39 04:30:25 03:02:49 101
12 19 Matt Hanson USA 08:31:28 08:48:04 00:55:53 04:42:25 02:48:10 77
13 7 Matthew Russell USA 08:31:58 08:50:50 00:59:26 04:29:10 02:58:22 88
14 27 Jonathan Shearon USA 08:33:44 08:54:33 00:54:36 04:29:22 03:04:46 108
15 28 Joe Skipper GBR 08:34:39 08:47:31 00:55:38 04:37:39 02:56:22 74
16 14 Barrett Brandon USA 08:34:42 08:56:56 00:50:58 04:38:05 03:00:39 (119)
17 18 Trevor Delsaut FRA 08:36:03 08:53:56 00:55:17 04:37:34 02:58:12 103
18 20 Jarmo Hast FIN 08:37:09 08:52:34 00:52:22 04:39:42 03:00:05 97
19 26 Mike Schifferle SUI 08:48:30 09:03:40 01:02:14 04:35:28 03:05:47 148
20 21 Chad Holderbaum USA 08:50:13 09:13:43 00:56:26 04:38:26 03:10:21 191
21 29 Todd Skipworth AUS 08:54:04 09:16:33 00:47:24 04:40:45 03:20:56 (201)
22 12 Blake Becker USA 08:59:06 09:31:47 00:54:36 04:46:06 03:13:23 265
23 17 Matthew Curbeau USA 09:05:25 09:30:56 01:00:24 04:43:52 03:16:09 260
24 13 Raymond Botelho USA 09:07:15 09:41:21 00:55:58 04:38:20 03:27:58 302
25 32 Patrick Schuster USA 09:07:27 09:41:26 01:04:24 04:40:11 03:17:52 304
26 31 Patrick Wheeler USA 09:08:31 09:24:57 00:57:54 04:54:48 03:10:48 245
27 23 Peter Kotland CZE 09:48:10 10:04:49 00:59:09 05:03:09 03:40:52 386
10 Lionel Sanders CAN n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
15 Patrice Brisindi CAN n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
16 Timothy Clarke USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
25 Mario Radevic DEU n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
30 Jorge Vazquez MEX n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Overall
1 41 Rachel Joyce GBR 08:49:28 09:07:01 00:53:20 04:44:47 03:06:21 3
2 40 Kelly Williamson USA 09:07:38 09:31:13 00:53:50 05:09:21 02:59:27 27
3 46 Linsey Corbin USA 09:08:08 09:20:20 00:59:22 04:56:30 03:07:16 12
4 43 Corinne Abraham GBR 09:09:04 09:24:14 01:00:45 04:58:01 03:05:18 17
5 42 Leanda Cave GBR 09:10:26 09:22:15 00:52:19 04:56:51 03:16:15 14
6 47 Heather Jackson USA 09:11:03 09:34:51 00:59:54 04:43:59 03:22:09 (34)
7 49 Angela Naeth CAN 09:15:06 09:34:26 01:00:20 04:47:09 03:22:36 32
8 51 Sofie Goos BEL 09:18:19 09:36:50 00:57:32 04:58:40 03:17:07 38
9 60 Danielle Mack USA 09:20:43 09:56:23 01:04:40 04:58:48 03:12:15 81
10 44 Heather Wurtele CAN 09:21:55 09:31:08 00:57:05 04:59:19 03:20:31 26
11 45 Bree Wee USA 09:25:15 09:41:32 00:55:39 05:04:37 03:19:59 46
12 57 Katy Blakemore USA 09:25:35 09:43:40 00:54:34 05:08:15 03:17:47 50
13 59 Tamara Kozulina UKR 09:26:01 09:42:57 01:04:45 05:04:05 03:12:12 48
14 54 Sarah Piampiano USA 09:27:55 09:43:36 01:03:40 04:56:28 03:22:47 49
15 53 Rebecca Preston AUS 09:27:57 09:50:32 00:57:36 05:07:26 03:17:54 (64)
16 48 Camilla Lindholm SWE 09:37:52 10:01:07 01:11:21 05:01:57 03:19:34 89
17 63 Jessica Meyers USA 09:38:27 10:02:11 01:02:16 05:10:42 03:20:29 91
18 66 Keiko Tanaka JPN 09:43:51 10:00:13 00:57:24 05:15:40 03:25:47 85
19 55 Kaitlin Anelauskas USA 09:45:45 10:11:03 00:55:54 05:32:33 03:12:18 (111)
20 62 Jocelyn Mccauley USA 09:51:09 10:16:41 01:02:39 05:22:33 03:20:56 (122)
21 56 Anne Basso FRA 09:52:13 10:34:12 00:59:52 05:14:44 03:32:37 155
22 58 Katharina Grohmann GER 09:53:03 10:10:15 01:16:13 05:10:03 03:21:47 109
23 65 Olesya Prystayko UKR 09:55:38 10:18:43 01:03:13 05:11:21 03:36:04 128
24 67 Natasha Van der Merwe USA 10:08:59 10:37:50 01:04:50 05:12:14 03:46:55 158
25 52 Corrie Kristick USA 10:26:56 10:54:01 00:53:22 05:06:29 04:22:05 (167)
26 64 Samantha Morrison USA 12:39:38 13:12:27 00:54:51 05:35:47 06:04:00 (174)
61 Caroline Martineau CAN n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

It’s almost impossible to picks a favorite for this race, though Jordan Rapp has made clear that he is focusing on this race. Ben Hoffmann has already validated his Kona slot and may not be at his absolute best. Andreas Raelert has been struggling for a few years, but appears to be healthy and focused. In addition to these three, no one would be surprised if Faris Al-Sultan, Justin Daerr, Ronnie Schildknecht or Victor Del Corral would win this races.

  • Jordan Rapp: 31% (2-1)
  • Ben Hoffman: 17% (5-1)
  • Andreas Raelert: 14% (6-1)
  • Faris Al-Sultan: 11% (8-1)
  • Justin Daerr: 9% (10-1)
  • Ronnie Schildknecht: 7% (13-1)
  • Victor Del Corral: 4% (26-1)
In addition are IM winners Chris McDonald, Matthew Russell, Lionel Sanders (even if his win was the non-swim-IM Florida) and Matt Hanson.

Female Race Participants

As seems to be getting the norm in the Regional Championships, the women’s field seems to be even deeper than the men’s field. Based on the data, Rachel Joyce is a step above the rest of the field, but she will probably be more focused on a good race in October than improving her course record from 2012. Corinne Abraham has shown great potential, winning two Regional Championships in the last two years. Linsey Corbin was ready to race IM South Africa but caught an infection shortly before the race. (She’s had some more bad luck before Texas and had to withdraw once again.) Leanda Cave hasn’t raced an IM this early in the season – she is usually strong in October/November. Defending Champion Kelly Williamson will be looking to repeat her fantastic performance from a year ago. Angela Naeth has taken last season to “learn IM racing” – ending the year with winning IM Chattanooga.

  • Rachel Joyce: 64% (1-1)
  • Corinne Abraham: 11% (8-1)
  • Linsey Corbin: 6% (16-1)
  • Leanda Cave: 6% (16-1)
  • Kelly Williamson: 5% (19-1)
  • Angela Naeth: 3% (31-1)

In addition to these athletes there are Heather Jackson, Sofie Goos, Danielle Mack (nee Kehoe), Bree Wee, Sarah Piampiano and especially Heather Wurtele that would love to play a big role in this race.

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