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Ironman Australia 2015 – Analyzing Results

Course Conditions

This year’s race in Port Macquarie had pretty slow conditions, especially on the run. A low adjustment of -2:35 (mainly caused by a -1:16 run) leads to a new course rating of 4:15. After a few year’s of smaller fields (9 athletes in 2012 and 8 in 2013), this year had a larger field with 16 Pros.

Male Race Results

Paul Ambrose took the lead in the second half of the bike, building a lead of almost 7 minutes into T2. Luke Bell was working hard to close the gap and whittled it down to about a minute with 5k to go. Paul was then able to find another gear and won by just over two minutes while Luke Bell had to settle for second. Brian Fuller finished third, resulting in an all-Australian podium.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected Prize Money
1 Paul Ambrose AUS 00:47:34 04:39:24 03:05:22 08:35:53 -12:50 US$ 10000
2 Luke Bell AUS 00:44:58 04:49:01 03:01:01 08:38:34 -14:46 US$ 5000
3 Brian Fuller AUS 00:48:28 04:49:53 03:08:30 08:49:39 -14:36 US$ 3250
4 Luke Martin AUS 00:50:30 04:54:20 03:08:13 08:56:19 00:32 US$ 2500
5 Nick Baldwin SEY 00:48:24 04:46:59 03:21:11 08:59:44 06:07 US$ 1750
6 Carl Read NZL 00:50:28 05:07:47 02:58:47 09:02:08 04:31 US$ 1250
7 Petr Vabrousek CZE 00:52:43 05:01:17 03:18:07 09:16:07 14:01 US$ 750
8 Dan McGuigan AUS 00:58:38 04:51:16 03:23:50 09:18:50 -40:59 US$ 500
9 Pete Jacobs AUS 00:44:59 04:57:28 03:53:06 09:38:34 49:52  
10 Graham O’Grady NZL 00:44:56 04:59:05 03:51:24 09:38:34 08:22  
11 Matt Randall NZL 00:55:20 04:59:21 03:54:28 09:52:35 00:28  
12 Josef Svoboda CZE 01:09:27 06:07:50 04:16:34 11:42:28 -15:48
  Matt Burton AUS 00:52:37 04:56:32   DNF  
  Peter Robertson AUS 00:48:27 05:05:48   DNF  
  Lachlan Kerin AUS 00:48:21     DNF  

Both Luke Bell (3.665) and Paul Ambrose (2.875) will some more Kona points for a safe July slot. However, Pete Jacobs validated his Automatic Qualifier slot with a 9th place finish in 9:38. He was in the lead until 120k on the bike, but said on Twitter after the race that he ran out of gas at that point. 

Female Race Results

Lisa Marangon was leading the race into T2, but had to end her race early in the run. At that point, Jessica Fleming took the lead, but she was run down by Michelle Bremer who won the race with the fastest marathon. Jessica finished second, while Michelle Gailey took the third place in her come-back race.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected Prize Money
1 Michelle Bremer NZL 00:53:13 05:18:15 03:23:17 09:38:24 -07:28 US$ 10000
2 Jessica Fleming AUS 00:56:26 05:11:50 03:30:35 09:42:18 -10:34 US$ 5000
3 Michelle Gailey AUS 00:52:54 05:24:59 03:28:56 09:50:51 00:01 US$ 3250
4 Marie Sorrell NZL 00:55:52 05:24:53 03:32:24 09:57:06 n/a US$ 2500
5 Caroline Gregory USA 00:53:15 05:44:45 03:35:35 10:16:56 -03:13 US$ 1750
6 Michelle Wu AUS 00:53:18 05:54:08 03:31:52 10:24:49 19:30 US$ 1250
  Lisa Marangon AUS 00:51:59 05:13:34   DNF  
  Christie Sym AUS 00:53:01 05:16:57   DNF  
  Marina Jurjevic AUS 01:00:14     DNF  

At this point, it seems unlikely that any of the female Pro athletes from IM Australia will be able to get a Kona slot.

Ironman Australia 2015 (May 3rd) – Predictions

Previous WinnersIMAUS

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2005 Chris McCormack (AUS) 08:25:44 Lisa Bentley (CAN) 09:13:20
2006 Chris McCormack (AUS) 08:20:42 Lisa Bentley (CAN) 09:19:44
2007 Patrick Vernay (NCL) 08:21:49 Rebekah Keat (AUS) 09:12:59
2008 Patrick Vernay (NCL) 08:31:32 Chrissie Wellington (GBR) 09:03:54
2009 Patrick Vernay (NCL) 08:24:53 Chrissie Wellington (GBR) 08:57:10
2010 Patrick Vernay (NCL) 08:23:54 Carrie Lester (AUS) 09:23:46
2011 Pete Jacobs (AUS) 08:29:28 Caroline Steffen (SUI) 09:29:54
2012 Paul Ambrose (GBR) 08:17:38 Michelle Gailey (AUS) 09:34:57
2013 Luke Bell (AUS) 08:30:23 Rebecca Hoschke (AUS) 09:34:55
2014 Elliot Holtham (CAN) 08:35:18 Melissa Hauschildt (AUS) 09:28:43

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Elliot Holtham CAN 00:49:26 04:49:09 02:53:28 08:35:18
2 Paul Ambrose GBR 00:46:29 04:46:28 03:01:37 08:37:47
3 Nick Baldwin SEY 00:50:10 04:50:54 02:56:22 08:41:19

Last year’s winner Elliot Hotham is not back to defend his title. He said that he „got so burnt out chasing points and racing Kona“ – even after winning in Australia he had to race until the end of August to collect the required points for a slot. He took a lot off time off after Kona but is now already trying to figure out how to return to Kona in 2016.

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Melissa Hauschildt AUS 00:50:46 05:19:57 03:13:57 09:28:43
2 Lisa Marangon AUS 00:49:49 05:12:19 03:23:53 09:30:50
3 Melanie Burke NZL 00:58:08 05:21:39 03:09:19 09:32:53

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:17:38 Paul Ambrose 2012-04-29
Swim overall 00:44:24 Luke Bell 2014-05-04
Bike overall 04:31:25 Paul Ambrose 2012-04-29
Run overall 02:47:20 Tim Van Berkel 2012-04-29
Total female 08:57:10 Chrissie Wellington 2009-04-05
Swim female 00:48:42 Melissa Ashton 2006-05-11
Bike female 05:00:57 Carrie Lester 2010-03-28
Run female 03:01:06 Lisa Bentley 2006-05-11

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Australia is 05:01.

Race Adjustments for IM Australia

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Athletes Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2006 01:43 02:10 -07:45 00:29 16 01:43 02:10 -07:45 00:29
2007 04:09 01:53 -05:32 01:03 24 02:56 02:01 -06:38 00:46
2008 -00:09 -00:01 -03:18 00:46 20 01:54 01:21 -05:31 00:46
2009 02:03 -00:18 -04:25 02:34 24 01:57 00:56 -05:15 01:13
2010 07:37 04:52 03:16 00:04 14 03:05 01:43 -03:33 00:59
2011 01:59 02:13 -02:32 01:44 13 02:54 01:48 -03:23 01:07
2012 05:09 02:20 01:15 04:04 9 03:13 01:53 -02:43 01:32
2013 11:54 01:34 -03:27 07:58 8 04:18 01:50 -02:48 02:20
2014 10:40 03:32 -02:43 08:29 13 05:01 02:02 -02:48 03:01

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Australia is a P-2000 race. It has a total prize purse of 50.000 US$.

Male Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Overall
1 1 Pete Jacobs AUS 08:24:07 08:53:49 00:45:14 04:39:42 02:54:10 102
2 4 Peter Robertson AUS 08:33:11 08:48:32 00:45:11 04:43:47 02:59:13 (81)
3 2 Paul Ambrose GBR 08:36:11 08:46:15 00:46:54 04:41:04 03:03:12 64
4 3 Luke Bell AUS 08:36:40 08:53:31 00:45:45 04:41:43 03:04:12 100
5 7 Matt Burton AUS 08:46:19 09:01:52 00:51:12 04:43:04 03:07:03 137
6 5 Nick Baldwin SEY 08:48:29 08:56:20 00:51:28 04:50:59 03:01:02 118
7 9 Carl Read NZL 08:51:53 09:00:23 00:50:08 04:58:59 02:57:47 133
8 12 Simon Billeau FRA 08:53:08 08:55:43 00:52:20 04:45:14 03:10:34 116
9 16 Luke Martin AUS 08:53:34 09:03:56 00:49:45 04:57:28 03:01:21 (149)
10 6 Petr Vabrousek CZE 08:54:46 08:59:27 00:53:24 04:55:05 03:01:16 129
11 13 Brian Fuller AUS 08:58:56 09:12:37 00:50:32 04:51:14 03:12:10 186
12 14 Darren Jenkins AUS 09:10:36 09:18:23 01:01:59 05:02:02 03:01:36 209
13 8 Graham O’Grady NZL 09:27:47 09:44:38 00:43:49 04:51:04 03:47:55 (319)
14 15 Lachlan Kerin AUS 09:41:06 09:58:20 00:48:22 05:04:31 03:43:13 (369)
15 18 Matt Randall NZL 09:49:39 10:13:12 01:01:15 05:03:03 03:40:22 (411)
16 17 Dan McGuigan AUS 09:57:32 10:15:15 00:59:59 05:01:14 03:51:19 (417)
17 11 Daniel Brown AUS 10:45:15 11:04:23 01:01:54 05:38:51 03:59:31 (476)
18 10 Josef Svoboda CZE 11:52:39 12:12:15 01:10:21 06:12:10 04:25:09 484

Female Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Overall
1 21 Lisa Marangon AUS 09:36:01 09:56:22 00:51:09 05:11:42 03:28:09 81
2 22 Melanie Burke NZL 09:41:52 09:49:29 01:02:22 05:17:43 03:16:47 62
3 24 Michelle Gailey AUS 09:41:55 09:53:53 00:51:25 05:33:12 03:12:18 75
4 23 Michelle Bremer NZL 09:42:05 09:48:56 00:56:04 05:17:56 03:23:04 59
5 25 Jessica Fleming AUS 09:50:22 10:07:57 00:58:41 05:20:15 03:26:27 (104)
6 28 Christie Sym AUS 09:55:26 10:08:54 00:56:30 05:23:04 03:30:52 (108)
7 27 Michelle Duffield AUS 10:01:23 10:08:09 00:58:47 05:30:52 03:26:43 105
8 26 Michelle Wu AUS 10:02:43 10:20:35 00:57:15 05:48:45 03:11:43 (137)
9 29 Caroline Gregory USA 10:08:31 10:29:36 00:53:25 05:45:55 03:24:12 154
10 31 Marina Jurjevic AUS 10:10:02 10:28:07 01:01:59 05:16:13 03:46:50 (152)
30 Marie Sorrell NZL n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

There is a very interesting mix of athletes in this field. Pete Jacobs is the biggest name on paper, but he hasn’t had a good race since he won in Kona 2012. Hopefully, he was able to have a decent preparation for this race – then he would have to be considered the favorite. Peter Robertson and Luke Bell have both started in Melbourne but didn’t have the results they were looking for (Peter DNF’d probably hoping for a better day in Port Macquarie, Luke had 4h marathon and finished 15th). Paul Ambrose (winner in 2012 and second finisher last year) is hard to predict. Nick Baldwin has just finished 6th at IM Taiwan and is probably still be a bit tired.

  • Peter Robertson: 34% (2-1)
  • Paul Ambrose: 19% (4-1)
  • Luke Bell: 17% (5-1)
  • Pete Jacobs: 13% (7-1)
  • Nick Baldwin: 6% (17-1)
  • Matt Burton: 4% (22-1)
  • Carl Read: 4% (27-1)
  • Petr Vabrousek: 2% (40-1)

Female Race Participants

Lisa Marangon is always close to the front – last year she finished second to Mel Hauschildt and has to be considered the front runner for this year. But she faces strong competition in Melanie Burke (recently third at IM New Zealand), Michelle Gailey (coming back after injuries and a 2014 scare with skin cancer) and Michelle Bremer (athlete with the best rating).

  • Lisa Marangon: 53% (1-1)
  • Melanie Burke: 16% (5-1)
  • Michelle Gailey: 15% (6-1)
  • Michelle Bremer: 12% (7-1)
  • Jessica Fleming: 3% (32-1)

Ironman Taiwan 2015 – Analyzing Results

Course Conditions

This was the first time for a full-distance Ironman-branded race in Taiwan. The typically hot conditions and the hilly bike course did not allow for fast times, a race adjustment of 8:37 is similar to Switzerland or Mont Tremblant.

Male Race Results

Ex-Pro bike racer Domenico Passuello exited the swim two minutes after early leaders Rod DeKanel, Fredrik Croneborg and Cam Brown. He quickly rode up to them, then built an eight minute lead into T2. After a solid 2:55 marathon he continued his winning streak (he won 70.3 Putrajaya a week ago), but still needs another 1.100 points for a Kona slot.

DomenicoTaiwan

The race best marathon (2:49) allowed Fredrik Croneborg to finish second – again coming up just short of a win (he was also second at IM Malaysia), but he is now safe for a Kona slot. Third place went to Patrick Evoe who had to play catch up all day after a slower than normal swim.

Cam Brown said after the race that he had „nothing in the tank“, he still finished fourth and now also has a safe Kona slot.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected Prize Money
1 Domenico Passuello ITA 00:52:25 04:32:16 02:55:52 08:25:54 -17:42 US$ 5000
2 Fredrik Croneborg SWE 00:50:35 04:42:57 02:49:48 08:28:37 -07:02 US$ 2750
3 Patrick Evoe USA 00:55:41 04:42:27 02:57:06 08:40:58 -07:24 US$ 1750
4 Cameron Brown NZL 00:50:56 04:42:29 03:04:22 08:43:13 24:11 US$ 1250
5 Patrick Jaberg SUI 00:52:21 04:40:53 03:05:47 08:44:46 -07:33 US$ 1000
6 Nick Baldwin SEY 00:52:24 04:53:01 02:54:32 08:45:59 04:01 US$ 750
7 Mauro Baertsch SUI 00:52:41 04:47:51 02:59:18 08:46:33 -11:42
8 Karol Dzalaj SVK 00:52:13 04:45:35 03:01:12 08:46:40 -08:16
9 Mike Schifferle SUI 00:58:23 04:37:51 03:04:12 08:50:43 -04:43
10 Samuel Huerzeler SUI 00:52:05 04:56:15 03:05:16 09:00:29 04:32
11 Deak Zsombor ROM 00:58:18 05:03:50 03:14:21 09:22:39 -07:19
12 Henrik Oftedal NOR 00:57:53 05:01:04 03:26:00 09:31:35 21:56
13 Rod De Kanel FRA 00:50:35 05:06:02 04:07:20 10:12:45 n/a
14 Daniel Brown AUS 01:02:00 05:26:48 03:59:06 10:34:43 n/a
Josef Svoboda CZE 01:14:27 DNF

Female Race Results

It was almost six years ago that Dede Griesbauer won IM Brasil in 2009. She went through a long period of dealing with injuries sustained after crashing at IM Germany 2011. At 44 years of age, she is now back on full form: She finished second at IM Mallorca and also won her first 70.3 at Taiwan at the end of 2014. She’s had another great race in Taiwan: Close to the front at after the swim, then quickly building a lead on the bike, and finishing off her race with a 3:17 marathon to win by more than ten minutes.

DedeTaiwan

Second place went to Dimitry-Lee Duke who had the strongest marathon. Kim Schwabenbauer took third spot, posting a new swim PR just over an hour, had a solid bike, but then didn’t quite have the run she was probably hoping for.

Because there are fewer WPRO slots for Kona, they need more points and none of the Taiwan athletes has enough points for a safe slots.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected Prize Money
1 Dede Griesbauer USA 00:51:10 05:05:19 03:17:16 09:20:23 -24:38 US$ 5000
2 Dimity-Lee Duke AUS 00:58:08 05:16:14 03:10:17 09:31:31 -08:11 US$ 2750
3 Kim Schwabenbauer USA 01:00:08 05:15:41 03:15:53 09:38:35 10:45 US$ 1750
4 Shiao-yu Li TWN 01:07:10 05:22:36 03:14:57 09:50:52 07:30 US$ 1250
5 Keiko Tanaka JPN 00:54:39 05:21:01 03:34:05 09:55:41 14:28 US$ 1000
6 Eva Potuckova CZE 00:51:18 05:27:31 03:32:42 09:57:47 n/a US$ 750
7 Alena Stevens SVK 01:01:01 05:31:40 03:38:23 10:18:01 n/a
8 Angela Kuehnlein GER 01:01:03 05:30:53 03:42:52 10:21:28 00:33
9 Maki Nishiuchi JPN 00:54:38 05:39:58 03:42:54 10:24:44 13:39
10 Samantha Morrison USA 00:51:06 05:40:57 05:57:17 12:37:04 n/a
Camilla Lindholm SWE 01:10:54 05:27:09 DNF
Caroline Gregory USA 00:57:14 05:45:33 DNF

Photo Credit: Finisher Pix Twitter account (@FinisherPix)

Ironman Taiwan 2015 (April 12th) – Predictions

This is the first race on this course. The „predicted“ times are therefore only based on the athletes previous results and do not take potential course conditions into account.

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Taiwan is a P-2000 race. It has a total prize purse of 25.000 US$.

Male Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Overall
1 1 Cameron Brown NZL 08:31:17 08:27:23 00:51:05 04:42:22 02:52:50 17
2 2 Fredrik Croneborg SWE 08:45:42 08:49:01 00:51:56 04:52:19 02:56:26 83
3 13 Domenico Passuello ITA 08:52:22 09:07:46 00:55:31 04:44:55 03:06:56 159
4 4 Nick Baldwin SEY 08:54:57 09:06:26 00:53:51 04:48:34 03:07:31 152
5 5 Patrick Evoe USA 08:57:36 08:56:41 00:56:12 04:48:34 03:07:50 116
6 11 Patrick Jaberg SUI 09:02:26 09:06:05 00:53:35 04:53:45 03:10:06 151
7 3 Karol Dzalaj SVK 09:04:28 09:08:46 00:53:56 04:48:53 03:16:40 168
8 6 Mauro Baertsch SUI 09:05:38 09:17:38 00:53:52 05:02:12 03:04:33 (205)
9 14 Mike Schifferle SUI 09:05:44 09:03:54 01:00:51 04:51:49 03:08:04 146
10 10 Samuel Huerzeler SUI 09:09:41 09:10:01 00:53:54 05:03:34 03:07:13 176
11 15 Yu Shinozaki JPN 09:12:44 09:55:36 00:56:20 04:47:47 03:23:37 359
12 12 Henrik Oftedal NOR 09:19:58 09:24:21 01:02:01 04:53:47 03:19:10 (241)
13 9 Eneko Elosegui ESP 09:22:57 09:33:49 00:57:56 04:52:36 03:27:25 272
14 17 Deak Zsombor ROM 09:44:44 09:56:30 00:57:57 05:25:11 03:16:37 (366)
15 16 Josef Svoboda CZE 11:59:20 12:05:00 01:13:22 06:10:20 04:30:38 484
7 Daniel Brown AUS n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
8 Rod De Kanel FRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Overall
1 21 Kim Schwabenbauer USA 09:39:59 09:42:16 01:02:52 05:16:42 03:15:25 46
2 23 Dimity-Lee Duke AUS 09:44:38 09:54:42 01:02:38 05:18:04 03:18:55 76
3 25 Dede Griesbauer USA 09:46:55 09:59:54 00:53:03 05:15:32 03:33:21 87
4 22 Camilla Lindholm SWE 09:50:57 09:55:10 01:09:14 05:16:23 03:20:20 77
5 24 Keiko Tanaka JPN 09:53:23 10:02:36 00:55:17 05:30:04 03:23:02 93
6 26 Shiao-yu Li TWN 09:53:36 09:58:44 01:06:52 05:22:19 03:19:25 86
7 28 Caroline Gregory USA 10:14:13 10:23:22 00:55:47 05:44:42 03:28:44 145
8 31 Maki Nishiuchi JPN 10:18:52 10:21:03 00:54:02 05:32:04 03:47:46 139
9 29 Angela Kuehnlein GER 10:37:09 10:56:27 01:03:20 05:34:41 03:54:07 (169)
27 Sandra Fantini FRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
30 Samantha Morrison USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
32 Eva Potuckova CZE n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
33 Alena Stevens SVK n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

  • Cameron Brown: 70% (1-1)
  • Fredrik Croneborg: 18% (5-1)
  • Domenico Passuello: 5% (20-1)
  • Nick Baldwin: 3% (30-1)
  • Patrick Evoe: 2% (41-1)

Female Race Participants

  • Kim Schwabenbauer: 33% (2-1)
  • Dede Griesbauer: 30% (2-1)
  • Dimity-Lee Duke: 13% (6-1)
  • Camilla Lindholm: 9% (10-1)
  • Shiao-yu Li: 8% (12-1)
  • Keiko Tanaka: 7% (13-1)
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