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Ironman Western Australia (Dec 7th) – Predictions

Busselton

Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2005 Mitchell Anderson (AUS) 08:27:35 Charlotte Paul (AUS) 09:47:27
2006 Jason Shortis (AUS) 08:03:55 Lisbeth Kristensen (DEN) 09:10:00
2007 Patrick Vernay (NCL) 08:05:58 Charlotte Paul (AUS) 09:00:54
2008 Tim Van Berkel (AUS) 08:07:06 Gina Ferguson (NZL) 08:59:24
2009 Patrick Vernay (NCL) 08:13:59 Gina Crawford (NZL) 09:16:52
2010 Courtney Ogden (AUS) 08:14:01 Kate Bevilaqua (AUS) 09:19:44
2011 Timo Bracht (GER) 08:12:39 Michelle Bremer (NZL) 09:25:38
2012 Jimmy Johnsen (DEN) 08:29:06 Britta Martin (NZL) 09:13:00
2013 Jeremy Jurkiewicz (FRA) 08:08:16 Elizabeth Lyles (USA) 08:59:44

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Jeremy Jurkiewicz FRA 00:47:03 04:29:17 02:48:18 08:08:16
2 Markus Thomschke GER 00:53:17 04:27:16 02:51:23 08:16:01
3 David Dellow AUS 00:48:16 04:32:34 02:54:26 08:19:10

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Elizabeth Lyles USA 00:57:11 04:58:21 03:00:37 08:59:44
2 Mareen Hufe GER 00:59:49 04:47:53 03:16:24 09:08:00
3 Lisa Marangon AUS 00:54:10 04:56:20 03:24:29 09:19:29

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:03:55 Jason Shortis 2006-12-03
Swim overall 00:44:42 Pete Jacobs 2007-12-01
Bike overall 04:18:07 Mitchell Anderson 2006-12-03
Run overall 02:43:48 Robert Thomas 2007-12-01
Total female 08:59:24 Gina Ferguson 2008-12-07
Swim female 00:48:25 Tereza Macel 2007-12-01
Bike female 04:47:53 Mareen Hufe 2013-12-08
Run female 03:00:37 Elizabeth Lyles 2013-12-08

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Western Australia is 13:14.

Race Adjustments for IM Western Australia

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Athletes Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2005 01:52 -02:59 01:39 -02:20 20 01:52 -02:59 01:39 -02:20
2006 14:45 00:28 14:38 02:50 25 08:19 -01:15 08:09 00:15
2007 24:27 00:42 13:35 04:21 37 13:41 -00:36 09:57 01:37
2008 15:18 -00:10 15:45 -00:09 29 14:05 -00:30 11:24 01:11
2009 12:44 01:13 14:16 -04:43 19 13:49 -00:09 11:59 00:00
2010 09:25 00:07 10:11 02:03 21 13:05 -00:06 11:41 00:20
2011 05:08 -00:24 08:46 02:38 25 11:57 -00:09 11:16 00:40
2012 14:49 -01:25 08:46 02:40 23 12:18 -00:19 10:57 00:55
2013 20:42 00:06 15:03 05:48 16 13:14 -00:16 11:24 01:28

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Western Australia has 2000 KPR points for the winner. It has a total prize purse of 50k$.

Male Race Participants

Please note special bib #83: Western Australia will be the 83rd and final Ironman race for Jason Shortis.

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Overall
1 1 David Dellow AUS 08:19:25 08:29:32 00:47:37 04:29:50 02:56:58 11
2 18 Clayton Fettell AUS 08:21:28 08:49:59 00:45:11 04:24:54 03:06:23 (57)
3 3 Joe Gambles AUS 08:28:01 08:40:23 00:49:09 04:32:50 03:01:01 31
4 8 Christian Kemp AUS 08:29:44 08:53:26 00:47:05 04:32:53 03:04:46 (73)
5 9 Matty White AUS 08:33:14 09:04:24 00:51:36 04:32:08 03:04:30 119
6 7 Jens Petersen-Bach DEN 08:33:54 08:52:24 00:52:31 04:40:42 02:55:41 66
7 2 Romain Guillaume FRA 08:34:21 08:51:06 00:49:04 04:32:11 03:08:06 61
8 5 Matt Burton AUS 08:34:35 08:55:17 00:54:17 04:30:00 03:05:18 (83)
9 20 Todd Israel AUS 08:35:14 09:09:28 00:50:11 04:40:15 02:59:48 141
10 16 Denis Chevrot FRA 08:35:21 08:55:52 00:48:36 04:44:31 02:57:13 87
11 10 Markus Thomschke GER 08:35:50 09:07:01 00:54:03 04:34:31 03:02:16 136
12 83 Jason Shortis AUS 08:37:10 08:57:14 00:54:25 04:39:46 02:58:00 96
13 4 Patrik Nilsson SWE 08:37:27 09:03:03 00:50:30 04:37:36 03:04:20 113
14 11 Simon Billeau FRA 08:39:57 09:03:31 00:52:17 04:29:44 03:12:56 (114)
15 19 Jarmo Hast FIN 08:44:05 08:54:33 00:51:40 04:45:19 03:02:05 80
16 29 Joshua Rix AUS 08:44:21 09:07:26 00:49:59 04:34:08 03:15:14 138
17 17 Guy Crawford NZL 08:44:31 09:18:42 00:48:37 04:33:03 03:17:51 186
18 13 Per Bittner GER 08:44:32 08:54:47 00:51:06 04:43:27 03:04:59 82
19 30 Jan Van Berkel SUI 08:46:01 09:04:50 00:49:12 04:36:11 03:15:38 121
20 26 Sylvain Rota FRA 08:47:38 09:03:32 00:53:15 04:38:25 03:10:58 115
21 6 Nick Baldwin SEY 08:49:23 09:05:00 00:55:09 04:41:13 03:08:00 123
22 22 Pontus Lindberg SWE 08:50:11 09:10:27 00:54:32 04:45:37 03:05:01 146
23 28 Mike Schifferle SUI 08:59:48 09:11:40 01:02:02 04:45:20 03:07:25 151
24 12 Johan Borg AUS 09:00:08 09:29:43 00:55:36 04:42:26 03:17:06 227
25 15 Simon Cochrane NZL 09:00:23 09:17:20 00:53:44 04:53:45 03:07:54 177
26 23 Gergö Molnar HUN 09:00:40 09:21:19 00:51:25 04:51:25 03:12:50 196
27 25 Daniel Niederreiter AUT 09:01:36 09:10:30 00:53:04 04:50:36 03:12:56 147
28 21 Darren Jenkins AUS 09:10:46 09:36:03 01:05:32 04:56:55 03:03:19 (251)
29 24 Andreas Niedrig GER 09:11:18 09:22:50 00:48:56 04:41:36 03:35:46 202
30 27 Shanon Stallard NZL 09:15:00 09:38:55 00:57:30 05:00:03 03:12:27 263
  14 Daniel Brown AUS n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Overall
1 43 Yvonne Van Vlerken NED 09:06:24 09:21:18 00:59:01 04:51:08 03:11:15 6
2 42 Liz Blatchford GBR 09:12:48 09:22:41 00:51:29 05:05:32 03:10:48 8
3 41 Elizabeth Lyles USA 09:13:39 09:31:57 00:57:28 05:05:02 03:06:09 18
4 48 Anja Beranek GER 09:13:49 09:37:51 00:53:26 04:54:09 03:21:14 (30)
5 46 Diana Riesler GER 09:20:51 09:41:33 00:59:16 04:55:02 03:21:33 35
6 64 Britta Martin NZL 09:21:51 09:38:40 01:00:34 05:03:36 03:12:40 30
7 62 Mareen Hufe GER 09:27:23 09:44:42 01:00:57 04:56:39 03:24:48 46
8 49 Lisa Marangon AUS 09:28:57 09:53:09 00:54:19 04:59:40 03:29:58 58
9 45 Asa Lundstroem SWE 09:31:15 09:43:23 01:01:30 05:06:31 03:18:14 39
10 44 Bree Wee USA 09:32:19 09:48:05 00:54:44 05:09:34 03:23:01 51
11 51 Kate Bevilaqua AUS 09:35:51 10:17:05 00:57:02 05:05:03 03:28:46 104
12 53 Jeanne Collonge FRA 09:36:47 09:59:18 00:58:37 05:09:00 03:24:09 76
13 47 Melanie Burke NZL 09:37:34 09:54:17 01:06:45 05:05:04 03:20:45 59
14 66 Sarah Piampiano USA 09:38:18 09:51:54 01:02:33 05:07:09 03:23:37 55
15 60 Dede Griesbauer USA 09:42:57 10:01:11 00:54:04 05:08:02 03:35:51 81
16 59 Beth Gerdes USA 09:48:57 10:05:15 01:04:11 05:27:36 03:12:10 85
17 58 Erin Furness NZL 09:52:11 10:26:17 01:01:21 05:19:56 03:25:55 124
18 68 Keiko Tanaka JPN 09:53:08 10:09:52 00:56:46 05:24:44 03:26:38 94
19 56 Michelle Duffield AUS 09:53:15 10:14:07 01:01:05 05:21:22 03:25:48 101
20 55 Katy Duffield AUS 09:54:23 10:21:34 00:59:22 05:23:02 03:27:00 (112)
21 50 Dimity-Lee Duke AUS 09:54:42 10:14:45 01:03:42 05:20:06 03:25:54 103
22 65 Larisa Marsh NZL 09:56:43 10:19:43 01:01:47 05:16:59 03:32:57 (109)
23 61 Monique Grossrieder SUI 09:58:15 10:18:14 01:06:06 05:21:17 03:25:52 106
24 57 Tracy Douglas AUS 10:01:07 10:26:43 01:07:58 05:16:47 03:31:22 (126)
25 67 Nina Pekerman ISR 10:04:01 10:23:11 01:01:10 05:20:34 03:37:17 114
26 52 Svetlana Blazevic SCG 10:05:30 10:23:18 00:53:44 05:22:33 03:44:13 (115)
27 63 Kristy Hallett AUS 10:17:55 10:48:41 01:05:04 05:20:55 03:46:57 151
  54 Kym Coogan AUS n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
  69 Pip Taylor AUS n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

At the top of the odds there are a lot of the Australians who either missed Kona (such as David Dellow with an injury, Clayton Fettell who took a year off IM racing) or didn’t quite have the race they wanted (Joe Gambles who finished 27th).

  • David Dellow: 34% (2-1)
  • Joe Gambles: 15% (6-1)
  • Clayton Fettell: 12% (7-1)
  • Romain Guillaume: 9% (10-1)
  • Markus Thomschke: 8% (11-1)
  • Christian Kemp: 6% (15-1)
  • Patrik Nilsson: 4% (24-1)
  • Matty White: 2% (40-1)
  • Joshua Rix: 2% (65-1)

Female Race Participants

After having only 8 female finishers last year, this year sees a strong and deep women’s field, headed by Yvonne Van Vlerken (recent winner of IM Florida) and defending champion Liz Lyles. However, there are a lot of other IM winners in the field (Liz Blatchford, Anja Beranek, Diana Riesler, Britta Martin, Asa Lundstroem, Bree Wee, Kate Bevilacqua, Dede Griebauer), so we can expect an interesting race not only for first place but also for the money slots.

  • Yvonne Van Vlerken: 39% (2-1)
  • Elizabeth Lyles: 28% (3-1)
  • Anja Beranek: 12% (7-1)
  • Liz Blatchford: 9% (10-1)
  • Diana Riesler: 6% (17-1)
  • Britta Martin: 4% (22-1)

Ironman Cozumel 2014 (Nov 30th) – Predictions

Update Nov 27th: The start list on Ironman.com has been updated:

  • Withdrawals by Thomas Gerlach, Chad Holderbaum, Christoper Sweet, Jim Lubinski, Diana Riesler & Karen Thibodeau
  • Late Additions by Marcel Bischof, Rene Vallant & Amy Javens

Previous Winners

Cozumel

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2009 Rutger Beke (BEL) 08:18:40 Yvonne Van Vlerken (NED) 09:06:58
2010 Andy Potts (USA) 08:15:57 Yvonne Van Vlerken (NED) 09:07:08
2011 Michael Lovato (USA) 08:23:52 Simone Braendli (SUI) 09:14:08
2012 Ivan Rana (ESP) 08:15:07 Mary Beth Ellis (USA) 09:15:38
2013 Michael Weiss (AUT) 07:55:23 Rachel Joyce (GBR) 08:52:28

Last Year’s TOP 3

Last year’s swim was shortened, so the times were really quick and do not count for the course records.

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Michael Weiss AUT 00:36:54 04:22:20 02:51:34 07:55:23
2 Tyler Butterfield BMU 00:34:12 04:35:14 02:49:48 08:02:42
3 Eneko Llanos ESP 00:34:19 04:34:40 02:52:38 08:05:21

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Rachel Joyce GBR 00:36:59 05:03:41 03:07:10 08:52:28
2 Jessie Donavan USA 00:44:46 05:00:35 03:12:02 09:01:12
3 Amanda Stevens USA 00:34:17 05:06:18 03:21:47 09:06:40

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:15:07 Ivan Rana 2012-11-25
Swim overall 00:41:48 John Kenny 2009-11-29
Bike overall 04:19:17 Michael Lovato 2011-11-27
Run overall 02:44:05 Ivan Rana 2012-11-25
Total female 09:06:58 Yvonne Van Vlerken 2009-11-29
Swim female 00:46:39 Bree Wee 2009-11-29
Bike female 04:45:20 Simone Braendli 2011-11-27
Run female 03:02:39 Beth Gerdes 2012-11-25

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Cozumel is 10:19.

Race Adjustments for IM Cozumel

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Athletes Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2009 09:05 06:53 01:58 -00:35 27 09:05 06:53 01:58 -00:35
2010 07:19 00:54 13:25 -04:58 30 08:12 03:53 07:42 -02:47
2011 15:07 01:40 12:41 02:14 40 10:30 03:09 09:21 -01:06
2012 09:45 -04:05 07:10 -00:08 55 10:19 01:20 08:48 -00:52

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Cozumel has 2000 KPR points for the winner. It has a total prize purse of 75k$.

Male Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Overall
1 5 Clemente Alonso McKernan ESP 08:22:00 08:31:11 00:47:07 04:34:38 02:55:15 15
2 1 Michael Weiss AUT 08:27:38 08:34:30 00:53:33 04:27:55 03:01:10 19
3 9 Bas Diederen NED 08:28:14 08:37:35 00:46:53 04:37:38 02:58:42 25
4 3 Victor Del Corral ESP 08:29:06 08:45:24 00:54:03 04:38:22 02:51:41 47
5 2 Viktor Zyemtsev USA 08:30:10 08:40:35 00:49:22 04:39:27 02:56:21 33
6 8 Maxim Kriat UKR 08:34:45 08:39:43 00:50:02 04:40:42 02:59:01 (30)
7 19 Stephen Bayliss GBR 08:38:30 08:57:07 00:46:55 04:40:25 03:06:11 94
8 7 Pedro Gomes POR 08:39:26 08:53:26 00:49:38 04:39:36 03:05:12 73
9 39 Jonathan Shearon USA 08:43:41 09:03:42 00:52:28 04:37:03 03:09:10 116
10 10 Trevor Delsaut FRA 08:45:35 09:01:48 00:53:11 04:46:11 03:01:12 111
11 14 Michael Ruenz GER 08:45:44 09:08:02 00:53:03 04:45:41 03:02:01 139
12 16 Todd Skipworth AUS 08:46:13 09:07:15 00:44:42 04:31:17 03:25:15 (138)
13 4 Matthew Russell USA 08:46:18 08:56:25 00:57:58 04:39:54 03:03:26 92
14 13 Andrey Lyatskiy RUS 08:52:04 09:06:22 00:47:42 04:47:40 03:11:42 132
15 24 Andres Castillo Latorre COL 08:52:27 09:16:07 00:46:12 04:42:33 03:18:42 170
16 18 Peru Alfaro ESP 08:52:32 09:13:49 00:46:14 04:47:29 03:13:50 (160)
17 35 Darby Thomas FIN 08:54:23 09:05:29 00:57:23 04:46:45 03:05:16 126
18 33 Georg Swoboda AUT 08:54:49 09:12:57 00:56:03 04:36:15 03:17:31 157
19 11 Thomas Gerlach USA 08:55:35 09:04:58 00:53:43 04:40:35 03:16:17 122
20 20 Sebastian Bleisteiner GER 08:59:38 09:21:12 00:51:43 04:50:42 03:12:13 (195)
21 28 Dan Mcintosh USA 09:02:20 09:27:19 00:51:29 04:50:12 03:15:39 221
22 27 Chad Holderbaum USA 09:03:00 09:16:56 00:54:00 04:48:16 03:15:44 175
23 6 Matt Chrabot USA 09:03:12 09:24:55 00:47:54 04:45:08 03:25:10 (211)
24 41 Gustavo Rodriguez ESP 09:09:36 09:31:34 00:53:50 04:55:14 03:15:31 (230)
25 25 Greg Close USA 09:13:09 09:35:16 00:56:55 04:56:37 03:14:37 (249)
26 37 Allan Villanueva MEX 09:14:26 09:48:39 00:52:19 04:53:30 03:23:38 305
27 40 Jim Lubinski USA 09:16:18 09:44:33 01:01:32 05:01:16 03:08:29 287
(28) 43 Rene Vallant AUT 09:16:27 09:38:18 00:54:00 04:42:44 03:34:43 (260)
(28) 42 Marcel Bischof GER 09:17:18 09:31:51 00:56:19 04:54:52 03:21:07 231
28 22 James Brown GBR 09:28:38 09:40:21 01:01:22 05:01:09 03:21:07 266
29 23 Jordan Bryden CAN 09:33:43 09:59:49 00:49:30 05:08:05 03:31:08 345
30 30 Sergio Quezada MEX 09:49:26 10:16:07 00:50:06 05:05:54 03:48:26 388
31 31 Jason Smith USA 10:39:13 11:04:46 00:56:14 05:20:46 04:17:13 (460)
32 38 Jason Watson USA 10:56:30 11:18:08 00:58:28 05:30:19 04:22:43 (462)
33 29 Marek Nemcik SVK 11:37:56 12:13:44 01:10:40 05:45:49 04:36:27 466
15 Francisco Serrano MEX n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
17 Rodrigo Acevedo COL n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
21 Scott Bradley USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
26 Oliver Gonzalez MEX n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
32 Christopher Sweet USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
34 Raul Tejada GTM n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
36 Jorge Vazquez MEX n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Overall
1 52 Michelle Vesterby DEN 09:21:47 09:31:32 00:50:59 05:02:12 03:23:36 17
2 57 Diana Riesler GER 09:23:57 09:41:33 00:57:31 04:57:32 03:23:54 35
3 51 Kelly Williamson USA 09:25:52 09:37:37 00:52:20 05:21:26 03:07:07 29
4 54 Erika Csomor HUN 09:29:48 09:41:26 00:57:47 05:08:27 03:18:33 34
5 56 Celine Schaerer SUI 09:29:50 09:48:11 00:47:29 05:12:22 03:24:59 (52)
6 50 Jessie Donavan USA 09:32:10 09:44:01 01:06:02 05:00:41 03:20:27 42
7 61 Ruth Brennan Morrey USA 09:34:25 09:57:22 01:01:27 05:18:26 03:09:31 (67)
8 55 Lucie Reed CZE 09:36:42 09:50:55 00:50:30 05:12:16 03:28:57 53
9 71 Jennie Hansen USA 09:37:05 09:45:55 01:02:58 05:13:52 03:15:15 47
10 58 Eimear Mullan IRL 09:39:33 09:56:12 00:58:53 05:16:46 03:18:54 62
11 75 Mackenzie Madison USA 09:43:44 09:58:47 00:58:54 05:13:25 03:26:26 72
12 62 Brooke Brown CAN 09:49:40 10:25:34 01:04:26 05:16:20 03:23:54 (120)
13 60 Anne Basso FRA 09:54:38 10:27:49 00:56:50 05:18:57 03:33:52 130
14 59 Karen Thibodeau CAN 09:55:49 10:14:26 00:55:35 05:24:24 03:30:49 102
15 70 Christine Hammond USA 09:58:02 10:11:39 00:53:58 05:21:20 03:37:44 96
16 73 Tine Holst DEN 10:05:27 10:20:49 01:06:13 05:14:36 03:39:39 111
17 68 Jacqui Gordon USA 10:05:50 10:18:52 00:59:56 05:19:41 03:41:13 108
18 64 Jocelyn Cornman USA 10:08:32 10:32:51 00:59:46 05:33:37 03:30:08 (140)
19 79 Nicole Woysch GER 10:10:07 10:28:07 00:57:41 05:20:28 03:46:58 132
20 66 Christine Fletcher CAN 10:11:33 10:19:50 00:58:26 05:24:58 03:43:08 109
21 78 Kathryn Thomas USA 10:14:36 10:33:49 00:53:39 05:29:39 03:46:18 (141)
22 65 Kelly Fillnow USA 10:14:45 10:28:26 01:05:49 05:30:21 03:33:35 133
(23) 80 Amy Javens USA 10:17:26 10:35:51 01:05:16 05:22:16 03:44:53 (142)
23 72 Helena Herrero Gomez ESP 10:18:12 10:36:32 01:00:16 05:42:06 03:30:50 (142)
24 77 Tami Ritchie USA 10:33:04 10:53:01 00:51:08 05:43:10 03:53:47 153
25 63 Ann Ciaverella USA 10:39:44 11:02:58 01:03:20 05:39:36 03:51:48 161
53 Nicola Spirig SWI n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
67 Shannon Florea USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
74 Corrie Kristick USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
76 Ruth Nivon Machoud MEX n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

My top pick Clemente Alonso recently finished second at IM Arizona, so he may be a DNS. If he doesn’t start, there are (at least) four athletes that  could contend for the win without any clear favorite:

  • Clemente Alonso McKernan: 31% (2-1)
  • Victor Del Corral: 22% (4-1)
  • Michael Weiss: 16% (5-1)
  • Bas Diederen: 14% (6-1)
  • Viktor Zyemtsev: 12% (8-1)
  • Trevor Delsaut: 2% (40-1)
  • Stephen Bayliss: 2% (57-1)

Female Race Participants

There are three big contenders on the women’s side: Michelle Vestry, Diana Riesler and Kelly Williamson. All of them have been racing in the fall with different results: Michelle finished 14th in Kona, Diana won at IM Malaysia, and Kelly finished 19th in Kona. It will be a question of who has the best form on race day …

  • Michelle Vesterby: 31% (2-1)
  • Diana Riesler: 29% (2-1) Diana won’t be racing in Cozumel, she is on the start list for Western Australia
  • Kelly Williamson: 17% (5-1)
  • Jessie Donavan: 7% (13-1)
  • Erika Csomor: 6% (17-1)
  • Celine Schaerer: 5% (18-1)
  • Lucie Reed: 2% (55-1)

An interesting addition to the field is Olympic Champion Nicola Spirig who will do her first IM in Cozumel.

Ironman Arizona 2014 – Analyzing Results

Race Conditions

During the race, there were a lot of mentions of windy conditions. Looking at the numbers, this year’s race was the slowest in Arizona since they moved to the fall time slot in 2008. With an adjustment of 16:31, it was still a very quick race, and it seems that the conditions didn’t affect the front of the race too much.

Male Race Results

Brent McMahon already had a number of great 70.3 results, but this weekend he moved up in distance and was able to deliver a stunning Ironman debut race. He was the third athlete ever with a sub-8 debut (the others are Filip Osapaly and Sebastian Kienle) and the fastest IM debut ever. He won the race in a new course record of 7:55, including a 2:43 marathon. Jordan Rapp rode a new bike course record and followed it up with a 2:54 marathon. His 8:03 finish was his fastest time in Arizona – but even that was only good enough for third: Clemente Alonso ran a 2:47 and took second place. Maik Twelsiek was also close to the front for most of the day and held on for a fourth place followed by Tim O’Donnell in fifth.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected
1 Brent McMahon CAN 00:47:25 04:21:24 02:43:29 07:55:48 n/a
2 Clemente Alonso McKernan ESP 00:48:05 04:20:44 02:47:30 08:00:42 -19:05
3 Jordan Rapp USA 00:51:13 04:14:03 02:54:08 08:03:14 -13:50
4 Maik Twelsiek GER 00:51:05 04:15:25 02:57:16 08:07:59 -18:22
5 Timothy O’Donnell USA 00:48:07 04:26:03 02:53:01 08:11:00 -22:17
6 Viktor Zyemtsev USA 00:51:00 04:30:38 02:52:42 08:18:16 -08:27
7 Marc Duelsen GER 00:55:10 04:24:48 02:55:01 08:18:39 -28:55
8 Jonathan Shearon USA 00:53:10 04:25:17 02:57:52 08:20:28 -40:09
9 David Kahn USA 00:47:18 04:30:22 03:00:34 08:22:06 n/a
10 Paul Matthews AUS 00:48:08 04:37:08 03:01:08 08:29:52 19:43
11 Nicholas Ward Munoz GBR 00:57:01 04:36:29 02:55:54 08:33:43 -19:14
12 Edo Van der Meer NED 00:48:09 04:35:32 03:10:19 08:37:52 -45:03
13 Christophe Bastie FRA 00:55:21 04:25:59 03:12:55 08:38:25 -05:08
14 Joe Umphenour USA 00:48:03 04:41:27 03:12:03 08:46:24 -00:14
15 Stephan Vuckovic GER 00:51:02 04:42:29 03:17:21 08:54:48 23:07
16 Ryan Rau USA 01:01:05 04:49:09 03:04:33 08:59:08 -14:52
17 Jesse Vondracek USA 00:55:26 04:59:26 03:05:35 09:04:08 -23:01
18 Jared Milam USA 00:55:23 04:54:08 03:09:46 09:04:22 -06:02
19 Patrick Bless GER 00:59:09 05:01:59 03:14:37 09:21:22 20:41
20 Patrick Wheeler USA 00:55:14 05:13:27 03:08:40 09:22:36 10:00
21 Michael Ruenz GER 00:59:23 04:44:45 03:37:08 09:26:23 45:42
22 Oliver Simon GBR 00:49:53 04:43:29 03:50:49 09:28:21 06:16
23 Dantley Young USA 01:07:02 05:05:43 03:16:37 09:36:58 -24:11
24 Botond Racz HUN 01:01:17 05:07:52 03:28:21 09:44:15 n/a
25 Patrick Schuster USA 01:04:27 04:53:18 03:43:28 09:45:46 26:39
26 Steven Zawaski USA 00:55:02 04:43:58 04:05:39 09:49:26 42:58
27 Richard Wygand BRA 01:06:49 05:03:06 03:35:06 09:51:05 -37:50
28 Vincent Depuiset FRA 01:14:32 05:04:43 03:33:09 09:57:36 -02:09
29 Horst Reichel GER 00:49:56 04:38:32 05:02:23 10:37:41 1:01:19
30 Eric Reid USA 01:01:22 04:59:02 04:48:59 10:54:01 n/a
31 Randy Arriola USA 01:11:59 05:50:00 04:16:52 11:24:26 n/a
32 Marek Nemcik SVK 01:16:15 05:59:50 05:18:30 12:42:18 54:12
Markus Fachbach GER 00:51:08 04:22:41 DNF
Matthew Russell USA 01:02:38 04:20:57 DNF
Derek Garcia USA 00:55:15 04:29:43 DNF
Chad Holderbaum USA 00:55:12 04:44:40 DNF
Anthony Toth CAN 00:59:12 04:54:39 DNF
Kyle Buckingham ZAF 00:53:08 DNF
Pedro Gomes POR 00:54:18 DNF
Jim Lamastra USA 00:55:12 DNF
Thomas Gerlach USA 00:55:25 DNF
Scott Defilippis USA 00:55:28 DNF
Devon Palmer USA 00:55:32 DNF
Lewis Elliot USA 00:55:39 DNF
Dominic Rohan-Gates GBR 01:05:39 DNF

Female Race Results

Once the swim was underway, there was never a doubt that Meredith Kessler would be the winner. Leading after the swim, she posted the second fastest bike and run times to win in 8:50. Lisa Huetthaler was second, while Heather Jackson finished third in her Ironman Pro debut.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected
1 Meredith Kessler USA 00:50:22 04:48:06 03:07:56 08:50:41 -27:18
2 Lisa Huetthaler AUT 00:59:05 04:50:17 03:05:48 08:58:46 -31:11
3 Heather Jackson USA 00:58:57 04:47:07 03:18:51 09:08:57 n/a
4 Katy Blakemore USA 00:53:43 05:01:13 03:12:35 09:11:32 -29:03
5 Amanda Stevens USA 00:52:00 04:57:55 03:20:26 09:15:32 -09:28
6 Mackenzie Madison USA 00:59:24 05:02:05 03:16:09 09:22:42 -23:37
7 Uli Bromme USA 01:04:18 04:58:27 03:16:23 09:23:37 -18:45
8 Laura Siddall GBR 00:59:49 05:07:53 03:19:56 09:32:49 n/a
9 Christina Jackson USA 00:53:26 05:01:26 03:36:34 09:35:32 -42:27
10 Carrie Lester AUS 00:53:30 05:24:59 03:17:16 09:40:19 15:45
11 Kathleen Calkins USA 00:59:02 05:08:48 03:38:47 09:50:51 14:51
12 Sarah Graves USA 01:13:24 05:16:48 03:20:34 09:55:54 -05:51
13 Carolin Lehrieder GER 00:59:52 05:22:55 03:30:42 09:57:40 -02:51
14 Sarah Jarvis USA 01:00:30 05:13:25 03:47:46 10:06:00 n/a
15 Olesya Prystayko UKR 01:04:02 05:24:27 03:38:21 10:11:09 05:21
16 Maggie Rusch USA 01:04:13 05:27:48 03:43:28 10:20:02 n/a
17 Jenni Plane USA 01:03:48 06:41:45 04:26:05 12:20:15 -21:44
Malaika Homo USA 00:55:53 05:15:02 DNF
Danielle Kehoe USA 01:00:37 05:26:43 DNF
Jacqui Gordon USA 01:00:47 05:28:33 DNF
Jessica Smith USA 00:56:49 05:47:44 DNF
Angela Kuehnlein GER 01:07:30 DNF

Ironman Fortaleza 2014 – Analyzing Results

Course Rating

This was the first race in Fortaleza. The overall impression was a quick bike and relatively slow swims and runs, leading to an adjustment of 8:59, comparable to Switzerland or Cozumel.

Male Race Results

Eneko Llanos was the clear favorite and he was leading the race for a long time. However he struggled a bit on the run, and Guilherme Manocchio was close enough to overtake him about 5k from the finish. Eneko finished in second place, twenty minutes in front of 3rd place Thiago Vinhal.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected
1 Guilherme Manocchio BRA 00:52:20 04:32:09 03:02:22 08:30:15 -28:59
2 Eneko Llanos ESP 00:51:56 04:27:09 03:09:07 08:32:02 12:23
3 Thiago Vinhal BRA 00:51:58 04:56:47 02:58:18 08:52:54 -12:31
4 Stefan Schmid GER 00:57:50 04:36:34 03:17:16 08:58:08 16:45
5 Frank Silvestrin BRA 00:52:15 04:44:30 03:17:31 08:58:54 -13:46
6 Patrick Jaberg SUI 00:57:52 04:39:15 03:18:28 08:59:57 -05:04
7 Ivan Risti ITA 00:51:42 04:56:48 03:08:31 09:01:25 n/a
8 Balazs Csoke HUN 00:49:49 04:39:03 03:29:34 09:02:11 01:04
9 Bryan Rhodes NZL 00:51:46 04:32:47 03:35:39 09:03:24 -16:37
10 Antonio Marcos de Souza BRA 00:52:08 04:53:13 03:17:44 09:07:42 -1:16:19
11 Raul Furtado BRA 00:57:46 04:40:32 03:30:45 09:13:36 -09:23
12 Petr Vabrousek CZE 01:01:10 04:49:04 03:39:48 09:36:46 45:24
13 Luiz Francisco Paiva Ferreira BRA 00:49:47 04:46:38 04:02:08 09:42:42 n/a
14 Jordan Bryden CAN 00:57:35 05:08:43 03:56:42 10:11:36 38:14
15 Fabio Carvalho BRA 00:50:11 05:16:30 04:12:59 10:24:16 1:12:32
Daniel Fontana ITA 00:51:47 04:32:48 DNF
Felipe De Oliveira Manente BRA 00:57:54 04:51:02 DNF
Ciro Violin BRA 00:57:43 04:59:04 DNF
Alexandre Aguiar Moura BRA 01:23:04 06:20:23 DNF

Female Race Results

The winner on the women’s side was Haley Chura who had fantastic day. It was expected that she’d be leading after the swim, but she continued to extend her lead also posting the fastest bike and the second fastest run to win by more than 30 minutes. Ariane Monticeli ran herself into second place, and Jessie Donavan returned to IM racing with a third place finish.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected
1 Haley Chura USA 00:51:52 04:57:46 03:15:59 09:09:20 -32:18
2 Ariane Monticeli BRA 01:12:19 05:11:21 03:14:00 09:41:55 -09:56
3 Jessie Donavan USA 01:17:06 04:59:35 03:31:15 09:51:33 20:08
4 Mette Pettersen Moe NOR 00:57:44 05:06:48 03:50:23 09:58:51 -05:09
5 Caroline Gregory USA 00:53:46 05:25:42 03:44:06 10:06:48 -15:10
6 Mariana Andrade BRA 01:06:38 05:20:05 03:46:30 10:17:56 08:23
7 Ana Lidia Borba BRA 01:03:33 05:34:42 04:01:57 10:44:30 33:21
Erika Csomor HUN 01:13:57 05:53:16 DNF
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