Race

Ironman Hawaii 2016 – Head to Head

February 26, 2017

Kona 2016 is expected to be a big “showdown” between the two big favorites Jan Frodeno and Sebastian Kienle on the male side and Daniela Ryf and Mirinda Carfrae. This post has a look at how the results when these athletes have raced each other. As Daniela and Rinny only have very few joint results, I have added another interesting “Head to Head”: Daniela vs. Melissa Hauschildt.

Frodeno vs. Kienle

Date	Race	Frodo	Rank	Sebi	Rank	Winner
08.09.13	70.3 World Championship	DNF		03:54:02	1	(Sebi)
29.03.14	70.3 California	03:49:25	1	03:53:21	3	Frodo
03.05.14	70.3 St. George	03:45:21	1	03:49:38	10	Frodo
06.07.14	IM Germany	08:07:05	3	07:55:14	1	Sebi
07.09.14	70.3 World Championship	03:42:11	2	03:53:59	18	Frodo
11.10.14	IM Hawaii	08:20:32	3	08:14:18	1	Sebi
05.07.15	IM Germany	07:49:48	1	08:01:39	2	Frodo
30.08.15	70.3 World Championship	03:51:19	1	03:52:48	2	Frodo
10.10.15	IM Hawaii	08:14:40	1	08:29:43	8	Frodo

Ryf vs. Carfrae

Date	Race	Daniela	Rank	Rinny	Rank	Winner
11.10.14	IM Hawaii	09:02:57	2	09:00:55	1	Rinny
10.10.15	IM Hawaii	08:57:57	1	DNF		(Daniela)

Ryf vs. Hauschildt

Date	Race	Daniela	Rank	Mel	Rank	Winner
22.09.13	70.3 Cozumel	04:15:38	3	04:13:12	2	Mel
08.09.13	70.3 World Championship	04:28:46	6	04:20:07	1	Mel
07.09.14	70.3 World Championship	04:09:19	1	DNF		(Daniela)
03.07.16	IM Germany	DNF		09:01:17	1	(Mel)
04.09.16	70.3 World Championship	04:14:09	4	04:11:09	2	Mel

Ironman Barcelona 2016 – Analyzing Results

February 26, 2017

Race Conditions

While the bike course in Barcelona was as fast as is typical for the Spanish course, both the swim and the run have been slower than in previous years.

Patrik Nilsson had some mechanical issues on the bike and lost some time, he still managed to go sub-8 and post a new course record. He also posted a new run course record while Johann Ackermann’s 4:12 is a new bike course record. On the female side, Astrid Stienen’s 4:40 was also a new bike course record.

Male Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time	Diff to expected	Prize Money
1	Patrik Nilsson	SWE	00:49:32	04:20:15	02:41:25	07:55:28	-06:36	US$ 10000
2	Ivan Tutukin	RUS	00:49:32	04:28:50	02:42:58	08:05:22	n/a	US$ 5000
3	Miquel Blanchart Tinto	ESP	00:49:44	04:29:05	02:44:25	08:07:16	-13:19	US$ 3250
4	Johann Ackermann	GER	00:49:33	04:12:06	03:02:20	08:08:16	-14:18	US$ 2500
5	Daniil Sapunov	UKR	00:49:35	04:28:40	02:48:33	08:11:21	-33:24	US$ 1750
6	Mark Oude Bennink	NED	00:49:24	04:13:11	03:06:00	08:12:40	-20:43	US$ 1250
7	Ritchie Nicholls	GBR	00:52:43	04:30:47	02:45:23	08:13:01	-12:01	US$ 750
8	Alexander Schilling	GER	00:49:34	04:27:31	02:55:23	08:16:24	-13:08	US$ 500
9	Guilherme Manocchio	BRA	00:52:42	04:22:58	02:56:50	08:18:02	-09:41
10	Tim Brydenbach	BEL	00:49:31	04:28:42	02:56:19	08:19:05	00:43
11	Luis Henrique Ohde	BRA	00:49:39	04:29:33	02:59:44	08:24:26	-02:37
12	Jonathan Ciavattella	ITA	00:49:38	04:28:34	03:00:37	08:24:45	n/a
13	Christian Hoerper	GER	00:53:58	04:24:51	03:05:48	08:29:14	n/a
14	Christian Brader	GER	00:56:36	04:21:58	03:06:52	08:29:41	-04:35
15	Andrey Lyatskiy	RUS	00:52:43	04:31:02	03:01:10	08:29:56	-13:18
16	Andreas Fuchs	AUT	00:59:35	04:23:58	03:10:20	08:38:20	-09:16
17	Lars Vold	NOR	00:55:06	04:23:01	03:16:30	08:40:01	00:35
18	Kirill Goldovskiy	RUS	00:49:31	04:29:35	03:17:18	08:42:00	n/a
19	Thomas Leboucher	FRA	00:54:47	04:24:34	03:18:39	08:42:54	-19:00
20	Nicolas Hemet	FRA	00:54:47	04:28:18	03:20:17	08:48:05	-01:53
21	Allan Hovda	NOR	01:05:44	04:31:16	03:06:49	08:48:32	-06:32
22	Olivier Godart	LUX	00:58:12	04:46:04	03:06:27	08:56:06	01:32
23	Marius Elvedal	NOR	00:59:27	04:38:20	03:14:23	08:56:12	n/a
24	Pavel Andreev	RUS	00:59:25	04:34:29	03:16:54	08:56:40	n/a
25	Pierre-Yves Facomprez	FRA	01:08:23	04:33:08	03:09:04	08:57:05	-09:43
26	Harri Sokk	EST	00:59:30	04:37:41	03:14:36	08:58:14	-04:39
27	Filip Przymusinski	POL	00:54:38	04:42:33	03:15:10	08:58:39	n/a
28	Hywel Davies	GBR	00:59:48	04:47:14	03:08:26	09:03:13	03:50
29	Kasper Ougaard	DEN	01:02:46	04:40:41	03:15:29	09:04:43	01:20
30	David Berthou	FRA	00:56:17	04:41:21	03:23:18	09:06:34	n/a
31	Dennis Matzen	DEN	00:57:53	04:46:06	03:20:15	09:08:53	n/a
32	Emanuele Ciotti	ITA	00:54:42	04:28:04	03:44:08	09:12:06	00:04
33	Pavel Simko	SVK	00:52:45	04:25:45	03:52:08	09:15:30	45:53
34	Enric Gussinyer	ESP	00:54:34	04:42:45	03:31:54	09:16:23	05:20
35	Ohad Sinai	ISR	01:00:02	05:01:27	03:12:07	09:18:24	n/a
36	Zoltan Biro	HUN	01:01:10	04:53:29	03:20:00	09:20:08	n/a
37	Darren Jenkins	AUS	01:06:37	04:46:07	03:23:21	09:23:20	24:43
38	Ivan Jezko	SVK	01:01:20	04:41:37	03:38:10	09:27:38	12:31
39	Peter Kern	IRL	00:59:19	04:43:41	03:41:20	09:29:33	-01:37
40	Frantz Andersen	DEN	01:06:03	04:50:50	03:36:04	09:38:44	n/a
41	Gergely Nagy	HUN	00:56:37	04:37:22	03:59:34	09:40:10	-13:50
42	Kevin Thewes	GER	01:11:36	04:52:44	03:37:15	09:48:19	n/a
43	Gilian Oriet	SUI	00:59:25	04:42:51	04:02:47	09:51:16	13:37
44	Vincent Depuiset	FRA	01:11:11	04:56:09	03:37:10	09:51:56	26:54
45	Nis Lind	DEN	00:59:30	04:44:35	04:18:16	10:07:59	30:15
46	Sacha Cavelier	CAN	00:59:38	04:55:33	04:16:00	10:17:18	n/a
47	Petr Bednar	CZE	01:08:07	04:57:32	04:05:33	10:18:26	n/a
48	Marek Nemcik	SVK	01:11:08	05:15:42	04:52:49	11:26:49	-00:58
	Bas Diederen	NED	00:49:33	04:13:02		DNF
	Oliver Simon	GBR	00:54:40	04:23:30		DNF
	Craig Twigg	GBR	00:55:01	04:23:37		DNF
	Carlos Lopez Diaz	ESP	00:49:22	04:30:04		DNF
	Xavier Torrades	ESP	00:49:45	04:33:47		DNF
	Mikolaj Luft	POL	00:54:43	04:30:12		DNF
	Robert Brundish	GBR	00:59:29	04:27:55		DNF
	Marcel Bischof	GER	00:59:22	04:37:35		DNF
	Romain Garcin	FRA	01:16:08	04:25:52		DNF
	Roman Thuerauer	AUT	00:59:38	04:44:18		DNF
	Stanislav Krylov	RUS	00:49:48	09:02:17		DNF
	Ivan Risti	ITA	00:49:35			DNF
	John Manuel Galindo Rooney	ESP	00:49:40			DNF
	Philipp Koutny	SUI	00:54:43			DNF
	Hannes Cool	BEL	00:54:44			DNF
	Ignacio Rubio Gomez	ESP	00:56:10			DNF
	Stefan Eichheimer	GER	00:59:31			DNF

Female Race Results

Big smiles on the female podium: Astrid Stienen goes sub-9 and wins her second IM, Lisi Gruber moves up from 3rd last year to second, and Annah Watkinson finishes 3rd setting a new South African Ironman record.

(Photo supplied by Chris Decker)

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time	Diff to expected	Prize Money
1	Astrid Stienen	GER	01:00:29	04:40:13	03:09:05	08:54:27	-21:22	US$ 10000
2	Elisabeth Gruber	AUT	01:04:51	04:49:16	03:06:55	09:05:52	-07:03	US$ 5000
3	Annah Watkinson	ZAF	00:58:28	04:42:46	03:25:06	09:12:13	-12:38	US$ 3250
4	Pamela Tastets	CHI	00:58:31	04:54:53	03:19:27	09:20:16	n/a	US$ 2500
5	Lucie Reed	CZE	00:55:21	05:04:09	03:21:32	09:26:17	-03:24	US$ 1750
6	Michaela Rudolf	AUT	01:06:40	04:47:52	03:33:13	09:33:04	-03:42	US$ 1250
7	Bruna Mahn	BRA	00:58:30	05:07:32	03:29:45	09:41:09	-24:35	US$ 750
8	Evi Neuscheler	GER	01:07:27	05:12:10	03:55:05	10:23:00	56:09	US$ 500
	Celia Kuch	GER	01:07:11	05:06:25		DNF
	Carolin Lehrieder	GER	00:58:26			DNF
	Helena Herrero Gomez	ESP	01:03:08			DNF

Ironman Taiwan 2016 – Analyzing Results

February 26, 2017

Race Conditions

IM Taiwan moved from a date earlier in the year (April) to October – a change that can clearly be seen in the race data. While the swim and bike were similar to last year, the run was much slower, an adjustment of -18:53 is one of the slowest ever – a lot of athletes struggled in the heat.

Male Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time	Diff to expected	Prize Money
1	Daniel Fontana	ITA	00:51:26	04:32:35	03:12:53	08:40:45	-10:06	US$ 5000
2	Tohara Kaito	JPN	00:55:17	04:47:27	03:09:51	08:56:47	-16:26	US$ 2750
3	Patrick Evoe	USA	00:54:14	04:29:46	03:34:28	09:03:17	-06:56	US$ 1750
4	Adam Gordon	AUS	00:53:57	04:43:06	03:19:38	09:05:55	-13:02	US$ 1250
5	Gerhard De Bruin	ZAF	00:53:55	04:42:53	03:30:19	09:11:51	-48:49	US$ 1000
6	Patrick Jaberg	SUI	00:54:47	04:35:20	03:39:26	09:14:34	03:23	US$ 750
7	Levi Maxwell	AUS	00:54:20	04:47:53	03:31:13	09:17:34	n/a
8	Guy Crawford	NZL	00:51:49	04:32:00	04:00:07	09:29:13	06:47
9	Eneko Elosegui	ESP	01:00:34	04:44:13	03:45:59	09:35:48	-13:37
10	Jordan Bryden	CAN	00:51:33	04:31:49	04:26:48	09:55:34	16:56
11	Allister Caird	AUS	00:55:15	04:33:27	04:34:25	10:07:14	36:25
12	Simon Cochrane	NZL	00:51:46	04:50:09	04:20:11	10:07:14	54:55
13	Deak Zsombor	ROM	00:58:16	05:18:01	04:05:25	10:32:38	41:23
	Andreas Niedrig	GER	00:52:02	04:37:39		DNF
	Simon Billeau	FRA	00:55:13	04:34:51		DNF
	Antony Costes	FRA	00:51:49	04:45:48		DNF
	Yu Shinozaki	JPN	01:00:31	05:04:12		DNF
	Balazs Csoke	HUN	00:49:05	05:44:06		DNF
	Gudmund Snilstveit	NOR	01:00:38			DNF

Female Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time	Diff to expected	Prize Money
1	Danielle Mack	USA	01:02:52	05:10:55	03:31:32	09:50:03	-03:30	US$ 5000
2	Shiao-yu Li	TWN	01:06:04	05:13:07	03:45:41	10:10:43	-01:32	US$ 2750
3	Katharina Grohmann	GER	01:09:39	05:06:53	03:59:01	10:21:10	09:13	US$ 1750
4	Jana Candrova	CZE	01:08:59	05:31:44	04:03:34	10:50:04	03:40	US$ 1250
5	Stef Puszka	AUS	01:05:19	05:41:42	04:34:24	11:27:11	35:37	US$ 1000
6	Emi Sakai	JPN	01:09:49	06:20:36	04:01:45	11:37:51	1:03:23	US$ 750
7	Alison Fitch	AUS	01:01:15	06:11:20	05:23:33	12:42:58	2:14:04
	Keiko Tanaka	JPN	00:57:08			DNF

Ironman Hawaii 2016 – Female Pro Predictions

February 26, 2017

This is an excerpt of the data in my 2016 Kona Rating Report. (Find out more in this info post, you can download the report here).

Female Race Participants

Here are my predictions for the female race in Kona. Similar to the men’s predictions, please don’t focus too much on the times in the table but the differences between the athletes. Again I expect very close racing especially for the last spots in the Top 10.

Rank	Bib	Name	Nation	Expected	Rating	Swim	Bike	Run
1	101	Daniela Ryf	SUI	08:55:34	08:55:01	00:55:04	04:50:25	03:05:05
2	111	Mirinda Carfrae	AUS	09:02:35	08:59:59	00:59:13	05:02:50	02:55:32
3	108	Jodie Swallow	GBR	09:14:46	09:12:46	00:52:52	04:59:16	03:17:39
4	130	Yvonne Van Vlerken	NED	09:19:13	09:16:26	01:02:18	04:58:38	03:13:17
5	104	Heather Jackson	USA	09:19:40	09:18:38	01:03:41	05:03:37	03:07:22
6	106	Julia Gajer	GER	09:19:55	09:17:14	00:57:44	05:07:52	03:09:19
7	105	Lucy Gossage	GBR	09:21:48	09:16:53	01:03:07	05:01:26	03:12:15
8	116	Michelle Vesterby	DEN	09:22:00	09:23:10	00:55:47	05:04:08	03:17:05
9	138	Carrie Lester	AUS	09:22:14	09:25:57	00:58:12	05:04:46	03:14:16
10	102	Susie Cheetham	GBR	09:22:19	09:16:19	00:58:11	05:14:21	03:04:47
11	127	Linsey Corbin	USA	09:22:58	09:19:23	01:02:07	05:09:37	03:06:14
12	113	Mary Beth Ellis	USA	09:24:03	09:18:08	00:55:06	05:02:00	03:21:57
13	110	Camilla Pedersen	DEN	09:24:11	09:18:07	00:55:48	05:03:11	03:20:12
14	120	Meredith Kessler	USA	09:24:20	09:17:50	00:53:53	05:03:56	03:21:31
15	121	Melissa Hauschildt	AUS	09:24:27	09:23:29	01:01:14	05:07:32	03:10:40
16	112	Leanda Cave	GBR	09:24:48	09:25:21	00:54:55	05:07:45	03:17:09
17	103	Sarah Piampiano	USA	09:26:02	09:31:37	01:08:16	05:04:45	03:08:01
18	109	Kaisa Lehtonen	FIN	09:26:20	09:27:57	00:59:25	05:11:26	03:10:28
19	115	Anja Beranek	GER	09:26:28	09:19:29	00:56:15	04:59:01	03:26:11
20	119	Elizabeth Lyles	USA	09:27:09	09:26:12	01:00:24	05:12:22	03:09:23
21	139	Jodie Robertson	USA	09:28:28	09:28:36	01:11:50	05:04:06	03:07:33
22	118	Asa Lundstroem	SWE	09:30:03	09:31:21	01:04:41	05:06:15	03:14:06
23	117	Annabel Luxford	AUS	09:31:51	09:26:22	00:55:55	05:03:34	03:27:22
24	143	Michaela Herlbauer	AUT	09:32:57	09:33:18	01:00:35	05:13:18	03:14:04
25	128	Tine Deckers	BEL	09:33:02	09:28:53	01:02:40	05:02:15	03:23:07
26	125	Heather Wurtele	CAN	09:33:27	09:29:44	00:58:41	05:06:32	03:23:15
27	114	Lisa Roberts	USA	09:38:17	09:38:04	01:10:10	05:15:39	03:07:28
28	144	Natascha Badmann	SUI	09:39:20	09:36:16	01:06:11	05:05:12	03:22:58
29	122	Sarah Crowley	AUS	09:39:30	09:38:36	01:01:54	05:08:44	03:23:53
30	~~126~~	~~Mareen Hufe~~	~~GER~~	~~09:39:34~~	~~09:35:18~~	~~01:05:14~~	~~05:03:15~~	~~03:26:05~~
31	129	Daniela Saemmler	GER	09:41:54	09:38:28	01:00:35	05:12:01	03:24:18
32	132	Kristin Moeller	GER	09:42:25	09:38:18	01:09:33	05:21:34	03:06:17
33	123	Katja Konschak	GER	09:46:17	09:54:16	00:57:58	05:25:34	03:17:46
34	~~141~~	~~Natascha Schmitt~~	~~GER~~	~~09:47:34~~	~~09:52:58~~	~~00:58:45~~	~~05:14:27~~	~~03:29:22~~
35	135	Ariane Monticeli	BRA	09:47:47	09:43:49	01:06:18	05:21:39	03:14:50
36	107	Gurutze Frades Larralde	ESP	09:48:17	09:51:50	01:06:44	05:23:20	03:13:13
37	124	Alicia Kaye	USA	09:50:07	09:52:22	00:56:37	05:16:46	03:31:44
38	142	Laurel Wassner	USA	09:50:23	09:46:47	00:59:13	05:25:46	03:20:24
39	137	Alexandra Tondeur	BEL	09:52:01	09:52:32	01:06:30	05:22:48	03:17:44
40	136	Dimity-Lee Duke	AUS	09:53:51	09:45:33	01:04:51	05:20:13	03:23:47
41	133	Verena Walter	GER	09:54:44	09:57:27	01:04:54	05:15:53	03:28:58
42	134	Saleta Castro Nogueira	ESP	09:56:15	10:02:44	01:00:34	05:30:52	03:19:49
43	140	Bianca Steurer	AUT	09:57:18	09:54:25	01:02:41	05:24:51	03:24:46
44	131	Tine Holst	DEN	10:01:03	10:02:35	01:09:13	05:17:10	03:29:39

Heatmap

Here’s the heat map for the women’s race – a darker red corresponding to faster athletes in the swim, bike, run and overall.

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