Race

This is an excerpt of the data in my 2016 Kona Rating Report. (Find out more in this info post, you can download the report here).

Male Race Participants

Here are my predictions for the male Kona field.

One important disclaimer: This is a statistical analysis, but “past performance is not an indicator of future performance” – at least not down to the last few important seconds or minute or two. The results for an “experiment of one” (such as the Kona 2016 race) are usually different to averages: People have a great day or a crappy one, some weird things may happen (such as a mechanical or a penalty) or athletes may decide to “go for it” and blow up on the run. So my data is just an indication of what may happen and the race still has to be raced. In addition, the focus shouldn’t be on absolute times but on the comparison between different athletes – e.g. not that my expected swim time for Frodo is exactly 49:56 (the actual time can be influcenced by a lot of factors) but that he should be about three and a half minutes faster than Sebi. Also the data shows how close the racing in Kona is expected to be – there are less ten minutes between for example 8th seeded Andi Boecherer and 33rd seeded Fabio Carvalho. Ten minutes is easily the difference between a good day and a bad day. At least for me, the data and predictions make it easier during the race to spot things that are different from what’s normal for each of the athletes and make following the coverage more interesting.

Rank	Bib	Name	Nation	Expected	Rating	Swim	Bike	Run
1	1	Jan Frodeno	GER	08:09:06	08:07:15	00:49:56	04:26:24	02:47:46
2	2	Sebastian Kienle	GER	08:17:57	08:12:23	00:53:33	04:22:35	02:56:50
3	9	Andreas Raelert	GER	08:18:26	08:22:24	00:51:59	04:30:51	02:50:36
4	3	Brent McMahon	CAN	08:20:51	08:12:59	00:51:20	04:29:46	02:54:46
5	4	Andy Potts	USA	08:21:54	08:23:08	00:50:18	04:34:03	02:52:34
6	8	Timothy O’Donnell	USA	08:22:11	08:36:59	00:51:15	04:30:40	02:55:16
7	20	Patrick Lange	GER	08:22:25	08:22:32	00:52:26	04:37:02	02:47:57
8	16	Andi Boecherer	GER	08:25:29	08:26:08	00:51:03	04:25:59	03:03:27
9	6	Eneko Llanos	ESP	08:26:15	08:22:51	00:51:42	04:28:46	03:00:48
10	12	Frederik Van Lierde	BEL	08:26:19	08:22:37	00:51:31	04:29:28	03:00:20
11	10	Tyler Butterfield	BMU	08:26:49	08:35:36	00:52:09	04:31:45	02:57:55
12	31	Timo Bracht	GER	08:27:20	08:24:07	00:53:07	04:34:51	02:54:22
13	18	Cyril Viennot	FRA	08:27:57	08:32:30	00:53:47	04:35:05	02:54:05
14	5	Tim Van Berkel	AUS	08:28:17	08:28:55	00:51:18	04:37:26	02:54:32
15	39	Will Clarke	GBR	08:28:56	08:34:13	00:53:14	04:42:20	02:48:22
16	44	Ivan Rana	ESP	08:29:27	08:25:23	00:51:25	04:43:17	02:49:44
17	29	Luke McKenzie	AUS	08:30:12	08:34:07	00:51:59	04:28:58	03:04:14
18	11	Pete Jacobs	AUS	08:30:26	08:48:31	00:50:22	04:35:36	02:59:28
19	19	David Dellow	AUS	08:30:45	08:25:20	00:50:56	04:38:07	02:56:42
20	27	Bart Aernouts	BEL	08:30:47	08:26:01	00:56:20	04:37:43	02:51:44
21	14	Boris Stein	GER	08:31:03	08:29:44	00:57:38	04:33:01	02:55:24
22	33	Jesse Thomas	USA	08:31:32	08:32:00	00:55:07	04:37:37	02:53:48
23	40	Ronnie Schildknecht	SUI	08:31:32	08:27:26	00:56:00	04:36:03	02:54:29
24	32	David McNamee	GBR	08:31:33	08:26:14	00:51:40	04:44:52	02:50:01
25	46	Joe Skipper	GBR	08:31:42	08:35:40	00:57:57	04:33:30	02:55:15
26	59	Callum Millward	NZL	08:32:02	08:31:20	00:52:13	04:40:05	02:54:44
27	24	James Cunnama	ZAF	08:32:55	08:33:58	00:53:13	04:37:48	02:56:54
28	37	Michael Weiss	AUT	08:33:06	08:32:02	00:58:40	04:28:45	03:00:41
29	21	Ben Hoffman	USA	08:33:35	08:33:32	00:52:06	04:33:53	03:02:36
30	51	Jordan Rapp	USA	08:34:17	08:28:38	00:56:12	04:34:23	02:58:43
31	7	Lionel Sanders	CAN	08:34:22	08:31:14	01:00:11	04:35:12	02:53:59
32	15	Tim Don	GBR	08:34:32	08:27:38	00:51:42	04:40:01	02:57:48
33	53	Fabio Carvalho	BRA	08:35:07	08:50:15	00:52:15	04:37:27	03:00:25
34	26	Terenzo Bozzone	NZL	08:36:14	08:33:13	00:51:43	04:39:02	03:00:29
35	25	Kevin Collington	USA	08:36:40	08:39:16	00:52:20	04:42:18	02:57:02
36	22	Marko Albert	EST	08:37:21	08:34:34	00:50:28	04:38:30	03:03:24
37	41	Paul Matthews	AUS	08:37:45	08:31:16	00:50:57	04:39:49	03:01:58
38	28	Stefan Schmid	GER	08:37:51	08:37:07	00:56:40	04:38:00	02:58:11
39	23	Tim Reed	AUS	08:38:34	08:36:15	00:52:06	04:37:34	03:03:54
40	35	Alessandro Degasperi	ITA	08:38:36	08:34:13	00:55:30	04:45:12	02:52:54
41	36	Ruedi Wild	SUI	08:39:06	08:41:57	00:54:14	04:46:02	02:53:50
42	54	Denis Chevrot	FRA	08:39:45	08:35:50	00:50:42	04:45:39	02:58:23
43	49	Christian Kramer	GER	08:40:21	08:37:27	00:51:15	04:39:44	03:04:22
44	48	Igor Amorelli	BRA	08:40:54	08:40:16	00:51:20	04:35:31	03:09:03
45	38	Pedro Gomes	POR	08:41:23	08:39:41	00:55:33	04:44:31	02:56:19
46	17	Matthew Russell	USA	08:42:34	08:51:18	01:01:45	04:38:51	02:56:58
47	42	Kirill Kotshegarov	EST	08:44:48	08:46:51	00:57:58	04:38:40	03:03:09
48	34	David Plese	SLO	08:44:55	08:41:10	00:56:38	04:43:57	02:59:20
49	56	Trevor Wurtele	CAN	08:45:30	08:44:48	00:56:50	04:40:57	03:02:44
50	47	Kyle Buckingham	ZAF	08:45:50	08:38:31	00:53:26	04:39:21	03:08:03
51	57	Per Bittner	GER	08:46:00	08:42:03	00:53:35	04:42:44	03:04:41
52	58	Jens Petersen-Bach	DEN	08:46:22	08:41:56	00:55:11	04:48:46	02:57:24
53	55	Jan Van Berkel	SUI	08:49:20	08:45:24	00:53:03	04:41:00	03:10:17
54	50	Andrej Vistica	CRO	08:49:21	08:45:32	00:58:18	04:44:17	03:01:46
55	52	Harry Wiltshire	GBR	08:52:20	08:49:16	00:51:07	04:50:03	03:06:11
56	30	Markus Thomschke	GER	08:53:42	08:55:13	00:57:40	04:39:39	03:11:23
57	45	Bertrand Billard	FRA	08:54:40	08:57:11	00:54:10	04:44:55	03:10:34
58	43	Mauro Baertsch	SUI	08:55:03	08:56:38	00:58:14	04:50:08	03:01:41

Heatmap

Here is another way of looking at the data in the table: Instead of showing predicted times I have converted them into zero to five starts for each of the legs and overall and showing them as a “heat map”. A darker red corresponds to more stars, white is equal to no stars.

Race Conditions

This year’s race was much slower than in the past (adjustment of 5:55, leading to a new course rating of 11:54), mainly because the run was really hard this year – probably a result of the heat on race day.

Male Race Results

After IM Austria in June, Marino won another Ironman race – if my data is correct it was his 16th win in an Ironman. He continues to be one of the best Ironman athletes, in addition to being a fast bike rider he is also able to follow that up with a strong run – his 2:55 was the second fastest of the day and one of only three sub-3 runs. After a broken elbow forced him out of IM Texas (and any decent chance of qualifying for Kona), Jeff Symonds was back to racing, and the fastest marathon of the day allowed him to run into second place. Third place went to Matthew Russell in his fifth IM-distance race of the year – and he’s also on the Kona startlist. After a few sub-par races Matt Hanson claimed 4th, Justin Daerr finished in 5th place.

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time	Diff to expected	Prize Money
1	Marino Vanhoenacker	BEL	00:45:08	04:27:28	02:55:26	08:12:22	-01:01	US$ 20000
2	Jeff Symonds	CAN	00:45:10	04:39:18	02:50:13	08:19:27	-07:28	US$ 10000
3	Matthew Russell	USA	00:45:15	04:31:04	03:04:06	08:24:53	-15:37	US$ 6500
4	Matt Hanson	USA	00:45:06	04:39:22	02:57:07	08:25:36	-08:17	US$ 4000
5	Justin Daerr	USA	00:45:11	04:37:55	03:01:54	08:29:47	-09:31	US$ 3000
6	Esben Hovgaard	DEN	00:45:15	04:39:09	03:15:50	08:44:55	00:04	US$ 2000
7	Jozsef Major	HUN	00:50:30	04:48:21	03:01:17	08:45:44	-03:56	US$ 1500
8	Eric Limkemann	USA	00:41:25	04:35:15	03:27:38	08:49:30	14:55	US$ 1250
9	Chad Holderbaum	USA	00:45:17	04:41:00	03:22:46	08:54:24	-07:09	US$ 1000
10	Clint Kimmins	AUS	00:45:07	04:42:38	03:28:41	09:01:36	n/a	US$ 750
11	Adam Otstot	USA	00:45:19	04:58:22	03:17:29	09:06:32	15:21
12	Colin Laughery	USA	00:47:26	04:54:34	03:26:46	09:15:44	04:53
13	James Lubinski	USA	00:57:08	04:55:42	03:18:44	09:17:04	00:20
14	Patrick Schuster	USA	00:55:39	04:51:40	03:33:57	09:26:25	-04:18
15	Matt Shanks	USA	00:49:26	05:06:02	03:37:12	09:38:35	-01:04
16	Dusty Spiller	CAN	00:51:48	05:15:41	03:27:50	09:40:35	n/a
17	Peter Kotland	CZE	00:49:28	05:05:54	03:50:30	09:52:45	09:49
18	Ivan Dominguez	USA	00:47:21	05:04:03	04:06:14	10:04:36	n/a
	Viktor Zyemtsev	UKR	00:45:13	04:39:29		DNF
	Barrett Brandon	USA	00:41:20	04:48:20		DNF
	Mario De Elias	ARG	00:45:14	04:46:06		DNF
	Raymond Botelho	USA	00:45:21	05:00:18		DNF
	Blake Becker	USA	00:46:13	04:59:48		DNF
	Brent Mcburney	USA	00:49:24	05:10:42		DNF
	Dantley Young	USA	00:55:53	05:17:07		DNF

Race Conditions

IM Mallorca saw pretty “normal” conditions this year, the adjustment of 7:05 is in line with the course rating of 6:03.

Female race winner Jocelyn McCauley posted new overall and run course records, while Tineke Van den Berg had the first female sub-5 bike ride on the Mallorca bike course.

Male Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time	Diff to expected	Prize Money
1	Carlos Lopez Diaz	ESP	00:48:56	04:36:15	02:55:42	08:26:09	-22:21	US$ 10000
2	Markus Fachbach	GER	00:52:41	04:38:00	02:56:20	08:31:51	01:27	US$ 5000
3	Gustavo Rodriguez	ESP	00:53:54	04:45:13	02:48:02	08:32:32	-35:45	US$ 3250
4	Marcel Zamora	ESP	00:52:47	04:41:28	03:00:11	08:39:29	05:22	US$ 2500
5	Michael Ruenz	GER	00:57:51	04:42:34	02:53:48	08:39:37	-01:19	US$ 1750
6	Joan Nadal Clar	ESP	00:57:09	04:41:20	02:55:06	08:40:25	n/a	US$ 1250
7	Samuel Huerzeler	SUI	00:52:58	04:43:42	03:00:43	08:43:18	-13:15	US$ 750
8	Roman Deisenhofer	GER	00:52:30	04:44:20	03:04:58	08:47:28	00:07	US$ 500
9	Bart Borghs	BEL	01:01:31	04:51:27	02:50:03	08:48:45	-07:56
10	Darby Thomas	FIN	00:59:06	04:41:33	03:04:31	08:50:59	06:41
11	Konstantin Bachor	GER	00:52:31	04:38:52	03:14:32	08:51:12	23:24
12	Guillaume Jeannin	FRA	00:53:44	04:46:15	03:10:43	08:55:46	-24:44
13	Thomas Bosch	GER	00:57:56	04:47:43	03:04:58	08:56:10	-22:30
14	Mikita Hryhoryeu	POL	00:53:07	04:57:31	03:03:35	08:59:56	02:30
15	Erik Holmberg	SWE	00:53:42	04:52:14	03:10:25	09:00:58	n/a
16	Horst Reichel	GER	00:48:59	04:45:48	03:22:05	09:01:40	13:37
17	Herve Banti	MCO	00:52:44	04:44:08	03:37:14	09:19:20	17:12
18	Alfred Rahm	GER	01:03:34	04:56:20	03:14:50	09:23:32	-14:08
19	Tomas Swift-Metcalfe	GBR	01:01:38	04:56:44	03:24:59	09:31:58	n/a
20	Vincent Depuiset	FRA	01:07:18	05:03:27	03:16:55	09:34:45	-04:44
21	Jan Hron	CZE	01:01:15	05:16:25	03:10:59	09:36:06	-05:43
22	Rafael Espinar Puig	ESP	01:08:17	05:18:12	03:13:17	09:49:44	14:19
23	Ludovic Le Guellec	FRA	01:06:20	05:15:57	03:20:00	09:50:22	-11:17
24	Sebastian Pedraza	ITA	00:57:43	05:03:21	03:47:58	09:54:37	38:42
25	Santiago Abad de Agueda	ESP	01:01:42	05:12:35	03:34:58	09:55:49	-27:26
26	Chris Walker	GBR	00:53:40	05:03:54	03:50:53	09:56:07	n/a
27	Alen Kralj	SVN	00:58:50	05:15:57	03:33:26	09:56:31	n/a
28	Marek Nemcik	SVK	01:11:51	05:47:45	04:10:41	11:18:53	-27:10
	Matic Modic	SLO	00:56:42	04:45:17		DNF
	Trevor Delsaut	FRA	00:53:46	05:02:19		DNF
	Tomas Mika	CZE	00:53:11	05:03:39		DNF
	Francisco Fernandez Cortes	ESP	00:52:35			DNF
	Michael Van Cleven	BEL	00:52:50			DNF
	Hendrik-Jan Verhaegen	BEL	00:57:53			DNF
	Simon Brierley	SEY	00:57:58			DNF
	Johan Kaerner	SWE	00:58:59			DNF
	Hannes Bonami	BEL	01:01:31			DNF

Female Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time	Diff to expected	Prize Money
1	Jocelyn McCauley	USA	00:56:02	05:06:10	03:03:50	09:11:55	-39:38	US$ 10000
2	Maja Stage Nielsen	DEN	00:58:59	05:06:06	03:13:19	09:23:40	-1:07:27	US$ 5000
3	Tineke Van den Berg	NED	01:05:20	04:53:59	03:18:57	09:24:27	-32:20	US$ 3250
4	Sara Svensk	SWE	01:00:35	05:13:53	03:09:00	09:28:58	n/a	US$ 2500
5	Diane Luethi	SUI	00:55:59	05:12:47	03:24:41	09:39:58	-18:01	US$ 1750
6	Natascha Schmitt	GER	00:55:59	05:08:43	03:41:54	09:52:42	13:23	US$ 1250
7	Petra Krejcova	CZE	01:00:29	05:28:32	03:25:45	10:00:17	02:02	US$ 750
8	Helena Herrero Gomez	ESP	00:59:32	05:31:52	03:23:19	10:01:06	-08:59	US$ 500
9	Deborah Van Gossum	BEL	00:55:59	05:40:31	03:59:41	10:42:42	-19:00
	Lauren Parker	AUS	00:53:31	05:31:59		DNF
	Nicole Woysch	GER	01:00:23	05:25:10		DNF
	Jessica Ahlund	SWE	00:59:33	05:41:31		DNF
	Emma Bilham	SUI	00:55:23			DNF

Previous Winners

Year	Male Winner	Time	Female Winner	Time
2015	Domenico Passuello (ITA)	08:25:54	Dede Griesbauer (USA)	09:20:23

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Domenico Passuello	ITA	00:52:25	04:32:16	02:55:52	08:25:54
2	Fredrik Croneborg	SWE	00:50:35	04:42:57	02:49:48	08:28:37
3	Patrick Evoe	USA	00:55:41	04:42:27	02:57:06	08:40:58

Female Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Dede Griesbauer	USA	00:51:10	05:05:19	03:17:16	09:20:23
2	Dimity-Lee Duke	AUS	00:58:08	05:16:14	03:10:17	09:31:31
3	Kim Schwabenbauer	USA	01:00:08	05:15:41	03:15:53	09:38:35

Course Records

Leg	Gender	Record	Athlete	Date
Total	overall	08:25:54	Domenico Passuello	2015-04-12
Swim	overall	00:50:35	Rod De Kanel	2015-04-12
Swim	overall	00:50:35	Fredrik Croneborg	2015-04-12
Bike	overall	04:32:16	Domenico Passuello	2015-04-12
Run	overall	02:49:48	Fredrik Croneborg	2015-04-12
Total	female	09:20:23	Dede Griesbauer	2015-04-12
Swim	female	00:51:06	Samantha Morrison	2015-04-12
Bike	female	05:05:19	Dede Griesbauer	2015-04-12
Run	female	03:10:17	Dimity-Lee Duke	2015-04-12

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Taiwan is 09:19.

Race Adjustments for IM Taiwan

Year	Adjustment	Swim Adj.	Bike Adj.	Run Adj.	# of Finishers	Rating	Swim Rating	Bike Rating	Run Rating
2015	09:19	01:16	04:20	01:34	24 of 27	09:19	01:16	04:20	01:34

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Taiwan is a P-2000 race. It has a total prize purse of 25.000 US$.

Male Race Participants

Rank	Bib	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Exp. Swim	Exp. Bike	Exp. Run	Consistency	Overall
1	22	Daniel Fontana	ITA	08:33:15	08:49:07	00:47:53	04:40:57	02:59:25	40% +0% -60% (13)	(89)
2	4	Gudmund Snilstveit	NOR	08:44:05	09:10:21	00:55:22	04:37:17	03:06:26	25% +12% -63% (9)	(167)
3	5	Simon Cochrane	NZL	08:45:43	09:03:32	00:49:21	04:47:09	03:04:13	67% +29% -5% (16)	138
4	1	Patrick Evoe	USA	08:47:37	08:57:33	00:54:44	04:42:29	03:05:23	89% +4% -7% (23)	120
5	6	Tohara Kaito	JPN	08:48:03	09:06:06	00:51:53	04:52:31	02:58:39	34% +50% -15% (7)	154
6	7	Patrick Jaberg	SUI	08:48:05	09:03:38	00:52:17	04:44:25	03:06:22	97% +0% -3% (17)	140
7	16	Adam Gordon	AUS	08:51:05	09:11:40	00:53:55	04:47:47	03:04:23	5% +53% -41% (5)	169
8	15	Balazs Csoke	HUN	08:53:18	09:06:38	00:46:39	04:47:55	03:13:44	54% +7% -39% (24)	155
9	8	Simon Billeau	FRA	08:53:47	09:03:29	00:53:11	04:39:51	03:15:45	43% +0% -57% (17)	137
10	10	Andreas Niedrig	GER	08:54:07	09:07:05	00:46:34	04:36:01	03:26:31	47% +39% -14% (13)	156
11	14	Jordan Bryden	CAN	08:55:52	09:30:23	00:48:20	04:52:21	03:10:11	16% +70% -14% (7)	221
12	2	Guy Crawford	NZL	08:57:10	09:14:38	00:47:42	04:39:19	03:25:10	27% +37% -36% (12)	181
13	12	AJ Baucco	USA	08:58:51	09:08:12	00:51:12	04:51:31	03:11:09	64% +0% -36% (7)	(157)
14	3	Antony Costes	FRA	08:59:42	09:30:49	00:47:40	04:38:51	03:28:10	30% +0% -70% (3)	(223)
15	21	Olivier Godart	LUX	09:07:01	09:24:55	00:54:22	04:57:09	03:10:31	31% +0% -69% (3)	(209)
16	17	Allister Caird	AUS	09:12:31	09:33:31	00:55:10	04:57:45	03:14:36	53% +0% -47% (2)	(227)
17	9	Yu Shinozaki	JPN	09:19:09	10:06:06	00:54:47	04:47:50	03:31:31	14% +22% -64% (10)	275
18	11	Deak Zsombor	ROM	09:26:21	09:48:04	00:58:23	05:07:21	03:15:37	100% +0% -0% (2)	(256)
19	20	Eneko Elosegui	ESP	09:27:56	09:41:45	00:57:21	04:55:03	03:30:32	62% +12% -25% (16)	246
20	13	Gerhard De Bruin	ZAF	09:43:35	09:53:40	00:54:27	05:04:24	03:39:45	100% +0% -0% (4)	263
	18	Levi Maxwell	AUS	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (no IM Pro race)	(n/a)
	19	Derek Cross	AUS	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (no IM Pro race)	(n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank	Bib	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Exp. Swim	Exp. Bike	Exp. Run	Consistency	Overall
1	32	Danielle Mack	USA	09:24:40	09:51:26	01:01:00	05:06:48	03:11:53	41% +14% -45% (6)	(67)
2	31	Shiao-yu Li	TWN	09:44:54	09:58:00	01:04:28	05:18:54	03:16:33	47% +36% -17% (11)	83
3	36	Kathryn Haesner	NZL	09:45:39	10:31:04	00:55:39	05:23:06	03:21:54	25% +36% -39% (3)	(142)
4	34	Katharina Grohmann	GER	09:49:35	10:03:27	01:09:17	05:19:06	03:16:12	100% +0% -0% (13)	93
5	33	Keiko Tanaka	JPN	09:50:13	10:04:10	00:53:10	05:23:49	03:28:14	48% +0% -52% (15)	95
6	35	Emi Sakai	JPN	10:11:01	10:24:22	01:04:56	05:20:25	03:40:39	69% +6% -25% (9)	(131)
7	39	Jana Candrova	CZE	10:23:36	10:37:33	01:05:11	05:32:27	03:40:58	80% +2% -18% (16)	150
8	38	Alison Fitch	AUS	10:25:00	10:17:13	00:54:58	05:39:45	03:45:17	5% +0% -95% (9)	117
9	37	Stef Puszka	AUS	10:30:49	10:54:47	01:03:16	05:45:56	03:36:37	n/a (1 IM Pro race)	(157)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

• Simon Cochrane: 28% (3-1)
• Daniel Fontana: 26% (3-1)
• Patrick Jaberg: 9% (10-1)
• Patrick Evoe: 9% (11-1)
• Andreas Niedrig: 6% (16-1)
• Tohara Kaito: 6% (16-1)
• Adam Gordon: 5% (18-1)
• Gudmund Snilstveit: 5% (20-1)
• Jordan Bryden: 4% (25-1)

Female Race Participants

• Danielle Mack: 43% (1-1)
• Shiao-yu Li: 25% (3-1)
• Katharina Grohmann: 14% (6-1)
• Keiko Tanaka: 11% (8-1)
• Kathryn Haesner: 7% (13-1)