Ironman Hamburg 2018 (July 29th) – Seedings

IMHH_LogoUpdate July 27th: Ironman was forced to cancel the swim, instead the race will start with a 6k and then continue as planned (180k bike and a marathon). This is a closer look at the changed situation for the race on Sunday.

After record temperatures (above 30 °C) for a prolonged time, the water temperature in the Alster (a man-made lake in the middle of Hamburg) has also increased, leading to an explosion of toxic blue algae. The town of Hamburg declared swimming the Alster and a number of other swim venues as a health risk and does not allow people in the water. There was no option for Ironman Hamburg to have a swim under the current circumstances. Instead it was decided to have a swim-bike-run, and there will be a 6k to start the event (replacing the swim) before the unchanged bike and run. The only other changes will be a later start (7:00/7:02 am for Pros instead of 6:30/6:32) and a longer rolling start for the agegroupers (now starting at 7:10 but taking a full hour instead of the planned 30 minutes for the swim).

I have updated my seedings with the changed course. (The original seedings can still be found below.) A few notes:

  • Instead of a swim there will be a 6k run. I have calculated the runtime from their marathon time, so the actual times for the first run are likely to be a bit faster.
  • The race dynamics will change significantly from the normal swim-bike-run format. I don’t expect the leading group to break up (both for the men and the women), but it could also mean that quite a few athletes overtake the first run. However, they will only find out in the second half of the marathon that the initial run was too fast for them.
  • In the “#” column (indicating the seeding rank) I have added in (brackets) where athletes have been seeded based on the normal Ironman format. As you can see, the order of the seedings isn’t much impacted, the bigger change will result from the new race dynamics. However, weaker swimmer (Bart Aernouts, Joe Skipper or Katharina Grohmann) will move up a bit in the rankings, and two good runs can significantly change the outcome of the race.
  • A few of the male athletes still on the list have not been present at the Pro meeting, they might not be racing on Sunday. I have marked their bib number with a “?”.

Male Race Participants

# Bib Name Nat Expected Rating ERun1 EBike ET2 ERun2 Consistency Overall
1 (1) 1 James Cunnama ZAF 07:41:43 08:19:06 00:23:30 04:27:56 04:56:26 02:45:17 55% +29% -16% (27) 13
2 (2) 2 Tim Don GBR 07:43:50 08:18:42 00:23:55 04:26:45 04:55:40 02:48:10 43% +33% -24% (5) (12)
3 (3) 39 Bart Aernouts BEL 07:45:12 08:18:38 00:22:41 04:37:57 05:05:38 02:39:34 93% +0% -7% (13) 11
4 (5) 26 Joe Skipper GBR 07:47:39 08:23:17 00:23:35 04:33:09 05:01:44 02:45:55 71% +10% -20% (22) 22
5 (4) 34 Will Clarke GBR 07:49:24 08:30:39 00:22:54 04:40:26 05:08:20 02:41:04 17% +46% -37% (9) 49
6 (6) 6? Clemente Alonso McKernan ESP 07:52:59 08:25:02 00:23:43 04:37:31 05:06:14 02:46:45 58% +7% -35% (16) 28
7 (7) 27 Jesper Svensson SWE 07:55:30 08:35:40 00:24:33 04:33:20 05:02:53 02:52:37 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (71)
8 (11) 36? Bryan McCrystal IRL 07:59:19 08:49:42 00:25:57 04:25:48 04:56:45 03:02:34 32% +45% -23% (6) 110
9 (8) 3 Horst Reichel GER 08:02:03 08:44:24 00:24:23 04:41:11 05:10:34 02:51:29 34% +26% -40% (19) 91
10 (9) 38 Markus Fachbach GER 08:03:57 08:46:33 00:24:56 04:38:40 05:08:36 02:55:21 47% +0% -53% (23) 99
11 (12) 9? Miquel Blanchart Tinto ESP 08:05:01 08:35:19 00:23:41 04:49:44 05:18:25 02:46:36 89% +2% -9% (20) 68
12 (20) 7? Victor Arroyo Bugallo ESP 08:05:03 08:55:58 00:23:59 04:47:26 05:16:25 02:48:38 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (142)
13 (10) 37 Paul Schuster GER 08:05:45 08:47:55 00:25:28 04:36:10 05:06:38 02:59:07 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (105)
14 (15) 5? Michael Patrick Alonso Mckernan ESP 08:06:24 08:54:35 00:25:48 04:34:07 05:04:55 03:01:29 0% +42% -58% (3) (136)
15 (16) 24 Jonathan Shearon USA 08:06:34 08:46:08 00:25:10 04:39:27 05:09:37 02:56:57 63% +16% -21% (22) 97
16 (19) 29 Domenico Passuello ITA 08:07:14 09:07:01 00:25:09 04:40:11 05:10:20 02:56:54 6% +10% -84% (10) 176
17 (18) 13 Christian Haupt GER 08:07:42 08:54:13 00:25:05 04:41:15 05:11:20 02:56:22 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (135)
18 (14) 22 Michael Raelert GER 08:08:23 08:54:08 00:24:50 04:43:52 05:13:42 02:54:41 31% +0% -69% (4) (135)
19 (13) 15 Christian Kramer GER 08:08:45 08:37:28 00:25:21 04:40:03 05:10:24 02:58:21 75% +4% -20% (22) 79
20 (22) 33? Michael Ruenz GER 08:09:31 08:55:59 00:24:17 04:49:24 05:18:41 02:50:50 61% +0% -39% (14) 142
21 (17) 8? Per Bittner GER 08:11:04 08:45:20 00:25:18 04:42:51 05:13:09 02:57:55 43% +6% -51% (26) 93
22 (23) 10 Christian Brader GER 08:14:38 08:50:48 00:24:46 04:50:41 05:20:27 02:54:11 62% +2% -37% (42) 117
23 (21) 23 Alexander Schilling GER 08:18:03 08:47:47 00:26:09 04:43:02 05:14:11 03:03:52 100% +0% -0% (3) 104
24 (25) 19 Philipp Mock GER 08:19:54 09:08:30 00:26:51 04:39:12 05:11:03 03:08:51 100% +0% -0% (2) (184)
25 (24) 16 Markus Liebelt GER 08:21:26 09:20:09 00:26:39 04:42:22 05:14:01 03:07:25 23% +0% -77% (3) (212)
26 (27) 32 Thomas Bosch GER 08:25:51 09:10:10 00:25:43 04:54:16 05:24:59 03:00:52 54% +34% -12% (6) 187
27 (26) 21? Andreas Niedrig GER 08:35:30 09:15:35 00:28:38 04:40:27 05:14:05 03:21:25 28% +19% -53% (15) (203)
28 (28) 25? Pavel Simko SVK 08:42:22 09:22:02 00:28:11 04:50:58 05:24:09 03:18:13 53% +0% -47% (5) 222
29 (29) 11 Inaki De La Parra POL 08:57:04 09:46:09 00:29:26 04:55:37 05:30:03 03:27:01 43% +0% -57% (2) (266)
30 30 Michal Ivanco SVK 09:09:09 10:13:59 00:28:27 05:15:34 05:49:01 03:20:08 100% +0% -0% (4) 282
31 (30) 18 Markus Mlinar AUT 09:15:50 10:22:15 00:30:26 05:06:18 05:41:44 03:34:06 15% +0% -85% (4) (286)
32 (32) 14? Aleksander Kochetkov LTU 10:12:22 11:11:58 00:32:54 05:43:05 06:20:59 03:51:23 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (296)
33 (33) 20 Marek Nemcik SVK 10:38:25 11:59:59 00:36:44 05:38:20 06:20:04 04:18:21 35% +20% -45% (47) 301
12 Patrick Dirksmeier GER n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
17 Franz Loeschke GER n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
35? Artem Parienko RUS n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (1 IM Pro race) (n/a)

Female Race Participants

# Bib Name Nat Expected Rating ERun1 EBike ET2 ERun2 Consistency Overall
1 (1) 65 Sarah Crowley AUS 08:36:56 09:15:36 00:26:00 05:03:06 05:34:06 03:02:50 54% +46% -0% (7) 8
2 (2) 51 Daniela Saemmler GER 08:39:27 09:20:18 00:26:57 04:57:55 05:29:52 03:09:35 46% +40% -14% (12) 19
3 (4) 60 Sonja Tajsich GER 08:47:20 09:29:09 00:26:12 05:11:55 05:43:07 03:04:13 88% +2% -10% (25) 35
4 (3) 59 Maja Stage Nielsen DEN 08:50:23 09:28:02 00:26:38 05:11:25 05:43:03 03:07:20 65% +0% -35% (4) 33
5 (6) 55 Katharina Grohmann GER 08:59:22 09:49:51 00:27:05 05:16:46 05:48:51 03:10:31 81% +19% -0% (18) 72
6 (5) 57 Carolin Lehrieder GER 09:14:16 10:32:57 00:28:23 05:21:17 05:54:40 03:19:36 13% +5% -82% (13) (142)
7 (7) 58 Kristin Lie NOR 09:32:33 10:26:29 00:29:57 05:26:57 06:01:54 03:30:39 93% +1% -6% (16) 135
8 (8) 53 Rahel Bellinga NED 09:48:33 10:33:20 00:33:25 05:15:05 05:53:30 03:55:03 88% +9% -3% (10) 144
9 (9) 62 Jana Candrova CZE 09:54:45 10:47:15 00:31:04 05:40:10 06:16:14 03:38:31 57% +0% -43% (20) 152
56 Trine Boye Larsen DEN n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)

IMHH_Logo Update July 24th: Removed a few DNS, especially on the female side.

Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2017 James Cunnama (ZAF) 08:00:36 Daniela Saemmler (GER) 09:07:49

Last Year’s TOP 3

Here’s the link to the full results analysis from last year.

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 James Cunnama ZAF 00:49:05 04:24:32 02:40:58 08:00:36
2 Horst Reichel GER 00:48:59 04:40:12 02:47:35 08:22:27
3 Markus Fachbach GER 00:49:10 04:36:27 02:53:47 08:25:36

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Daniela Saemmler GER 00:55:53 04:55:24 03:08:53 09:07:49
2 Eva Wutti AUT 00:58:58 05:14:59 03:02:02 09:23:35
3 Kristin Moeller GER 01:03:37 05:30:06 02:58:10 09:39:43

Course Records

There have been significant changes to the bike course from last year, this year’s course is flat and expected to be much faster.

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:00:36 James Cunnama 2017-08-13
Swim overall 00:47:38 Carlos Lopez Diaz 2017-08-13
Bike overall 04:24:32 James Cunnama 2017-08-13
Run overall 02:40:58 James Cunnama 2017-08-13
Total female 09:07:49 Daniela Saemmler 2017-08-13
Swim female 00:55:53 Daniela Saemmler 2017-08-13
Bike female 04:55:24 Daniela Saemmler 2017-08-13
Run female 02:58:10 Kristin Moeller 2017-08-13

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Hamburg is 05:18.

Race Adjustments for IM Hamburg

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Finishers Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2017 05:18 00:18 04:14 07:05 18 of 20 05:18 00:18 04:14 07:05

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Hamburg is a P-2000 race. It has a total prize purse of 80.000 US$, paying 10 deep.

Male Race Participants

The strength of the field is 13% of a typical Kona field.

# Bib Name Nat Expected Rating ESwim EBike ET2 ERun Consistency Overall
1 1 James Cunnama ZAF 08:07:23 08:19:06 00:49:10 04:27:56 05:22:06 02:45:17 55% +29% -16% (27) 13
2 2 Tim Don GBR 08:07:51 08:18:42 00:47:56 04:26:45 05:19:41 02:48:10 43% +33% -24% (5) (12)
3 39 Bart Aernouts BEL 08:14:25 08:18:38 00:51:54 04:37:57 05:34:51 02:39:34 93% +0% -7% (13) 11
4 34 Will Clarke GBR 08:15:29 08:25:36 00:48:58 04:40:26 05:34:25 02:41:04 22% +58% -20% (8) 30
5 26 Joe Skipper GBR 08:17:01 08:24:21 00:52:56 04:33:09 05:31:06 02:45:55 67% +11% -22% (21) 26
6 6 Clemente Alonso McKernan ESP 08:17:57 08:25:02 00:48:41 04:37:31 05:31:12 02:46:45 58% +7% -35% (16) 28
7 27 Jesper Svensson SWE 08:18:04 08:35:40 00:47:06 04:33:20 05:25:27 02:52:37 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (71)
8 3 Horst Reichel GER 08:26:54 08:44:24 00:49:14 04:41:11 05:35:25 02:51:29 34% +26% -40% (19) 91
9 4 Johann Ackermann * GER 08:28:07 08:38:32 00:48:38 04:33:25 05:27:03 03:01:04 80% +0% -20% (11) 83
10 38 Markus Fachbach GER 08:28:49 08:46:33 00:49:48 04:38:40 05:33:28 02:55:21 47% +0% -53% (23) 99
11 37 Paul Schuster GER 08:29:54 08:47:55 00:49:36 04:36:10 05:30:47 02:59:07 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (104)
12 36 Bryan McCrystal IRL 08:30:35 08:49:42 00:57:13 04:25:48 05:28:01 03:02:34 32% +45% -23% (6) 109
13 9 Miquel Blanchart Tinto ESP 08:31:05 08:35:19 00:49:45 04:49:44 05:44:29 02:46:36 89% +2% -9% (20) 68
14 15 Christian Kramer GER 08:31:48 08:37:28 00:48:24 04:40:03 05:33:27 02:58:21 75% +4% -20% (22) 79
15 22 Michael Raelert GER 08:31:54 08:54:08 00:48:21 04:43:52 05:37:13 02:54:41 31% +0% -69% (4) (134)
16 5 Michael Patrick Alonso Mckernan ESP 08:35:30 08:54:35 00:54:54 04:34:07 05:34:01 03:01:29 0% +42% -58% (3) (134)
17 24 Jonathan Shearon USA 08:35:48 08:46:08 00:54:24 04:39:27 05:38:51 02:56:57 63% +16% -21% (22) 97
18 8 Per Bittner GER 08:35:51 08:45:20 00:50:05 04:42:51 05:37:56 02:57:55 43% +6% -51% (26) 93
19 13 Christian Haupt GER 08:35:59 08:54:13 00:53:22 04:41:15 05:39:37 02:56:22 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (134)
20 29 Domenico Passuello ITA 08:37:23 08:58:57 00:55:18 04:40:11 05:40:29 02:56:54 9% +14% -76% (9) (150)
21 7 Victor Arroyo Bugallo ESP 08:37:40 08:55:58 00:56:36 04:47:26 05:49:02 02:48:38 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (140)
22 23 Alexander Schilling GER 08:40:49 08:47:47 00:48:54 04:43:02 05:36:57 03:03:52 100% +0% -0% (3) 103
23 33 Michael Ruenz GER 08:42:02 08:55:59 00:56:48 04:49:24 05:51:12 02:50:50 61% +0% -39% (14) 140
24 10 Christian Brader GER 08:45:23 08:50:48 00:55:31 04:50:41 05:51:12 02:54:11 62% +2% -37% (42) 116
25 16 Markus Liebelt GER 08:50:23 09:20:09 00:55:35 04:42:22 05:42:58 03:07:25 23% +0% -77% (3) (211)
26 31 Niclas Bock GER 08:51:38 09:27:06 00:52:20 04:42:31 05:39:51 03:11:47 5% +0% -95% (4) (236)
27 19 Philipp Mock GER 08:52:09 09:08:30 00:59:06 04:39:12 05:43:18 03:08:51 100% +0% -0% (2) (184)
28 21 Andreas Niedrig GER 08:55:13 09:10:05 00:48:21 04:40:27 05:33:48 03:21:25 44% +30% -26% (14) (188)
29 32 Thomas Bosch GER 08:58:51 09:10:10 00:58:43 04:54:16 05:57:59 03:00:52 54% +34% -12% (6) 188
30 25 Pavel Simko SVK 09:06:06 09:22:02 00:51:55 04:50:58 05:47:53 03:18:13 53% +0% -47% (5) 221
31 11 Inaki De La Parra POL 09:27:09 09:46:09 00:59:32 04:55:37 06:00:08 03:27:01 43% +0% -57% (2) (268)
32 18 Markus Mlinar AUT 09:43:14 10:22:15 00:57:49 05:06:18 06:09:08 03:34:06 15% +0% -85% (4) (288)
33 30 Michal Ivanco SVK 10:00:34 10:13:59 01:19:52 05:15:34 06:40:26 03:20:08 100% +0% -0% (4) 284
34 28 Kevin Thewes GER 10:15:35 10:53:36 01:10:39 05:19:31 06:35:11 03:40:24 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (296)
35 14 Aleksander Kochetkov LTU 10:49:02 11:11:58 01:09:34 05:43:05 06:57:39 03:51:23 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (298)
36 20 Marek Nemcik SVK 11:14:54 11:59:59 01:13:13 05:38:20 06:56:33 04:18:21 35% +20% -45% (47) 302
12 Patrick Dirksmeier GER n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
17 Franz Loeschke GER n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
35 Artem Parienko RUS n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (1 IM Pro race) (n/a)

Note: Athletes with a ‘*’ are also registered for another race within 8 days.

Female Race Participants

The strength of the field is 23% of a typical Kona field.

# Bib Name Nat Expected Rating ESwim EBike ET2 ERun Consistency Overall
1 61 Helle Frederiksen DEN 09:05:09 09:24:25 00:52:24 05:02:43 06:00:07 03:05:02 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (27)
2 65 Sarah Crowley AUS 09:05:36 09:15:36 00:54:40 05:03:06 06:02:46 03:02:50 54% +46% -0% (7) 8
3 51 Daniela Saemmler GER 09:08:41 09:20:18 00:56:10 04:57:55 05:59:06 03:09:35 46% +40% -14% (12) 19
4 52 Corinne Abraham GBR 09:10:30 09:17:44 01:00:41 05:04:37 06:10:18 03:00:12 77% +23% -0% (15) 13
5 54 Anja Beranek GER 09:18:24 09:29:34 00:52:26 05:01:48 05:59:14 03:19:10 52% +3% -45% (13) 36
6 66 Sara Svensk * SWE 09:21:50 09:33:21 00:58:17 05:08:19 06:11:36 03:10:14 47% +30% -23% (4) 41
7 59 Maja Stage Nielsen DEN 09:22:50 09:28:02 00:59:05 05:11:25 06:15:30 03:07:20 65% +0% -35% (4) 33
8 60 Sonja Tajsich GER 09:24:04 09:29:09 01:02:57 05:11:55 06:19:51 03:04:13 88% +2% -10% (25) 35
9 63 Angela Naeth * CAN 09:28:06 09:51:46 00:59:36 05:00:26 06:05:01 03:23:05 9% +16% -75% (7) 76
10 57 Carolin Lehrieder GER 09:41:53 10:32:57 00:56:00 05:21:17 06:22:17 03:19:36 13% +5% -82% (13) (141)
11 55 Katharina Grohmann GER 09:43:35 09:49:51 01:11:18 05:16:46 06:33:04 03:10:31 81% +19% -0% (18) 73
12 58 Kristin Lie NOR 10:14:47 10:26:29 01:12:11 05:26:57 06:44:08 03:30:39 93% +1% -6% (16) 134
13 53 Rahel Bellinga NED 10:21:36 10:33:20 01:06:28 05:15:05 06:26:33 03:55:03 88% +9% -3% (10) 143
14 62 Jana Candrova CZE 10:31:13 10:47:15 01:07:32 05:40:10 06:52:42 03:38:31 57% +0% -43% (20) 151
56 Trine Boye Larsen DEN n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)

Note: Athletes with a ‘*’ are also registered for another race within 8 days.

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

  • James Cunnama: 45% (1-1)
  • Tim Don: 25% (3-1)
  • Bart Aernouts: 14% (6-1)
  • Joe Skipper: 6% (15-1)
  • Will Clarke: 5% (18-1)
  • Clemente Alonso McKernan: 4% (27-1)

Female Race Participants

  • Daniela Sämmler: 43% (1-1)
  • Sarah Crowley: 26% (3-1)
  • Corinne Abraham: 22% (4-1)
  • Helle Frederiksen: 4% (27-1)
  • Anja Beranek: 2% (49-1)

Kona Qualifying

As IM Hamburg is one of the final races before the July cutoff, a lot of athletes are looking for points to secure their slots. Here’s the “who needs what” for Hamburg.

Male Participants

  • Just finish: James Cunnama, Bart Aernouts
  • 8th or better: Will Clarke (but likely racing IM UK)
  • 4th or better: Jonathan Shearon, Tim Don
  • 3rd or better: Christian Kramer, Jesper Svensson
  • 2nd or better: Joe Skipper (Joe is now safe after his win at IM UK)
  • Win: Miguel Blanchard Tinto, Johann Ackermann

Female Participants

  •  Already Safe: Sarah Crowley, Helle Frederiksen
  • 4th or better: Sara Svensk
  • 2nd or better: Maja Stage Nielsen, Corinne Abraham
  • Win: Daniela Sämmler

The above is what the athletes will have to finish at to have a chance for a slot, for more details see my analysis of Kona July Qualifying.

Comments are closed.

Powered by WordPress. Designed by Woo Themes

By continuing to use the site, you agree to the use of cookies. more information

The cookie settings on this website are set to "allow cookies" to give you the best browsing experience possible. If you continue to use this website without changing your cookie settings or you click "Accept" below then you are consenting to this.

Close