Ironman Hawaii 2016 – Female Pro Predictions

This is an excerpt of the data in my 2016 Kona Rating Report. (Find out more in this info post, you can download the report here).

Female Race Participants

Here are my predictions for the female race in Kona. Similar to the men’s predictions, please don’t focus too much on the times in the table but the differences between the athletes. Again I expect very close racing especially for the last spots in the Top 10.

Rank	Bib	Name	Nation	Expected	Rating	Swim	Bike	Run
1	101	Daniela Ryf	SUI	08:55:34	08:55:01	00:55:04	04:50:25	03:05:05
2	111	Mirinda Carfrae	AUS	09:02:35	08:59:59	00:59:13	05:02:50	02:55:32
3	108	Jodie Swallow	GBR	09:14:46	09:12:46	00:52:52	04:59:16	03:17:39
4	130	Yvonne Van Vlerken	NED	09:19:13	09:16:26	01:02:18	04:58:38	03:13:17
5	104	Heather Jackson	USA	09:19:40	09:18:38	01:03:41	05:03:37	03:07:22
6	106	Julia Gajer	GER	09:19:55	09:17:14	00:57:44	05:07:52	03:09:19
7	105	Lucy Gossage	GBR	09:21:48	09:16:53	01:03:07	05:01:26	03:12:15
8	116	Michelle Vesterby	DEN	09:22:00	09:23:10	00:55:47	05:04:08	03:17:05
9	138	Carrie Lester	AUS	09:22:14	09:25:57	00:58:12	05:04:46	03:14:16
10	102	Susie Cheetham	GBR	09:22:19	09:16:19	00:58:11	05:14:21	03:04:47
11	127	Linsey Corbin	USA	09:22:58	09:19:23	01:02:07	05:09:37	03:06:14
12	113	Mary Beth Ellis	USA	09:24:03	09:18:08	00:55:06	05:02:00	03:21:57
13	110	Camilla Pedersen	DEN	09:24:11	09:18:07	00:55:48	05:03:11	03:20:12
14	120	Meredith Kessler	USA	09:24:20	09:17:50	00:53:53	05:03:56	03:21:31
15	121	Melissa Hauschildt	AUS	09:24:27	09:23:29	01:01:14	05:07:32	03:10:40
16	112	Leanda Cave	GBR	09:24:48	09:25:21	00:54:55	05:07:45	03:17:09
17	103	Sarah Piampiano	USA	09:26:02	09:31:37	01:08:16	05:04:45	03:08:01
18	109	Kaisa Lehtonen	FIN	09:26:20	09:27:57	00:59:25	05:11:26	03:10:28
19	115	Anja Beranek	GER	09:26:28	09:19:29	00:56:15	04:59:01	03:26:11
20	119	Elizabeth Lyles	USA	09:27:09	09:26:12	01:00:24	05:12:22	03:09:23
21	139	Jodie Robertson	USA	09:28:28	09:28:36	01:11:50	05:04:06	03:07:33
22	118	Asa Lundstroem	SWE	09:30:03	09:31:21	01:04:41	05:06:15	03:14:06
23	117	Annabel Luxford	AUS	09:31:51	09:26:22	00:55:55	05:03:34	03:27:22
24	143	Michaela Herlbauer	AUT	09:32:57	09:33:18	01:00:35	05:13:18	03:14:04
25	128	Tine Deckers	BEL	09:33:02	09:28:53	01:02:40	05:02:15	03:23:07
26	125	Heather Wurtele	CAN	09:33:27	09:29:44	00:58:41	05:06:32	03:23:15
27	114	Lisa Roberts	USA	09:38:17	09:38:04	01:10:10	05:15:39	03:07:28
28	144	Natascha Badmann	SUI	09:39:20	09:36:16	01:06:11	05:05:12	03:22:58
29	122	Sarah Crowley	AUS	09:39:30	09:38:36	01:01:54	05:08:44	03:23:53
30	~~126~~	~~Mareen Hufe~~	~~GER~~	~~09:39:34~~	~~09:35:18~~	~~01:05:14~~	~~05:03:15~~	~~03:26:05~~
31	129	Daniela Saemmler	GER	09:41:54	09:38:28	01:00:35	05:12:01	03:24:18
32	132	Kristin Moeller	GER	09:42:25	09:38:18	01:09:33	05:21:34	03:06:17
33	123	Katja Konschak	GER	09:46:17	09:54:16	00:57:58	05:25:34	03:17:46
34	~~141~~	~~Natascha Schmitt~~	~~GER~~	~~09:47:34~~	~~09:52:58~~	~~00:58:45~~	~~05:14:27~~	~~03:29:22~~
35	135	Ariane Monticeli	BRA	09:47:47	09:43:49	01:06:18	05:21:39	03:14:50
36	107	Gurutze Frades Larralde	ESP	09:48:17	09:51:50	01:06:44	05:23:20	03:13:13
37	124	Alicia Kaye	USA	09:50:07	09:52:22	00:56:37	05:16:46	03:31:44
38	142	Laurel Wassner	USA	09:50:23	09:46:47	00:59:13	05:25:46	03:20:24
39	137	Alexandra Tondeur	BEL	09:52:01	09:52:32	01:06:30	05:22:48	03:17:44
40	136	Dimity-Lee Duke	AUS	09:53:51	09:45:33	01:04:51	05:20:13	03:23:47
41	133	Verena Walter	GER	09:54:44	09:57:27	01:04:54	05:15:53	03:28:58
42	134	Saleta Castro Nogueira	ESP	09:56:15	10:02:44	01:00:34	05:30:52	03:19:49
43	140	Bianca Steurer	AUT	09:57:18	09:54:25	01:02:41	05:24:51	03:24:46
44	131	Tine Holst	DEN	10:01:03	10:02:35	01:09:13	05:17:10	03:29:39

Heatmap

Here’s the heat map for the women’s race – a darker red corresponding to faster athletes in the swim, bike, run and overall.

Ironman Hawaii 2016 – Female Pro Predictions

Female Race Participants

Heatmap

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