IM Regensburg 2011 – Analyzing Results

Race Conditions

Conditions on race day in Regensburg were similar to Frankfurt – cold, with some rain. Compared to last year (when it was quite hot), the times were a little bit faster (adjustment of 11:27 this year vs. 6:31 last year), resulting in a new course rating of 8:59.

Male Results

Race favorite Andreas Raelert injured his foot a few days before the race, so he just raced to validate his Kona slot. This allowed Markus Fachbach to win his first IM in front of a number of veteran athletes:

Rank Name Nation Actual Time Expected Time
1 Markus Fachbach GER 08:29:16 08:36:58
2 Stefan Riesen SWI 08:36:54 08:36:47
3 Frank Vytrisal GER 08:37:12 08:47:17
4 Horst Reichel GER 08:42:07 09:30:45
5 Lothar Leder GER 08:45:30 08:52:48
6 Rene Vallant AUT 08:56:50 09:22:59
7 Christian Brader GER 09:06:09 08:48:43
8 Mario De Elias ARG 09:06:20 n/a
9 Daniel Mueller GER 09:07:39 09:31:02
10 Matjaz Kovac SVN 09:09:08 09:39:46
11 Heinrich Sickl AUT 09:25:50 09:33:57
12 Brian Hadley USA 09:45:23 08:57:10
13 Andreas Raelert GER 10:21:05 08:03:57

Female Results

On the female side, the favorite Mary Beth Ellis won convincingly:

Rank Name Nation Actual Time Expected Time
1 Mary Beth Ellis USA 09:18:55 08:55:04
2 Annett Kamenz CAN 09:28:23 10:07:12
3 Nicole Leder GER 09:30:27 09:36:03
4 Heidi Jesberger GER 09:32:42 10:01:08
5 Katja Rabe GER 09:44:45 09:51:30
6 Ute Streiter GER 10:20:34 10:17:25
7 Ariane Monticeli BRA 11:03:14 09:48:17
8 Olja Bregar SLO 13:46:56 10:21:04

She couldn’t quite match her blazing fast time from Austria four weeks ago, but is the newest member of the women’s TOP 10 in fourth place.

IM UK 2011 – Analyzing Results

Race Conditions

IM UK has gone through quite a few course changes and we’ve seen some pretty wild swings in the race adjustments. This year was no different, the race was still in the same location as last year but apparently the course was made a little bit easier. The race adjustment was 10:23 bringing the course rating to 1:30.

Male Results

Some of the pre-race favorites did not show up, so Aaron Farlow managed to win this race:

Rank Name Nation Actual Time Expected Time
1 Aaron Farlow GBR 08:24:34 08:35:51
2 Romain Guillaume FRA 08:41:25 09:07:14
3 Nick Saunders GBR 08:51:31 08:47:05
4 Domenico Passuello ITA 08:51:52 08:58:06
5 Oliver Simon   08:54:28 n/a
6 Gregorio Morales ESP 09:01:44 08:58:48
7 Paul Hawkins GBR 09:03:41 09:31:53
8 Toby Radcliffe GBR 09:04:24 09:13:46
9 Juha Laitinen FIN 09:39:00 09:49:54

Female Results

Defending champion Yvette Grice had a pretty good race but was beat by two up-and-coming German athletes:

Rank Name Nation Actual Time Expected Time
1 Kristin Moeller GER 09:19:04 09:31:58
2 Diana Riesler GER 09:25:41 09:29:01
3 Yvette Grice GBR 09:37:32 10:14:31
4 Joanna Carritt GBR 09:59:21 10:21:17
5 Nicole Klingler GER 10:09:58 09:44:07
6 Monika Stadlmann AUT 10:37:06 10:15:07
7 Conny Dauben GER 10:41:39 10:39:22

IM Lake Placid 2011 – Analyzing Results

Race Conditions

Lake Placid is one of the slower courses with a course rating of –1:35. This year had relatively good conditions (relatively cool and low winds) with an adjustment of 0:22.

Male Results

The good conditions helped TJ Tollakson win his first IM in almost course record times:

Rank Name Nation Actual Time Expected Time
1 TJ Tollakson USA 08:25:15 08:54:28
2 Ben Hoffman USA 08:33:29 08:53:05
3 Jason Shortis AUS 08:47:18 08:50:07
4 Eduardo Sturla ARG 09:04:16 08:39:21
5 Daniel Bretscher USA 09:07:05 n/a
6 Ian Mikelson USA 09:12:42 09:11:16
7 Mike Neill CAN 09:13:03 08:57:05
8 Tim Snow USA 09:16:01 09:29:20
9 Matthew Russell USA 09:26:26 09:21:39
10 John Hirsch USA 09:45:50 09:44:56
11 Tyler Lord CAN 10:09:48 10:38:32
12 Sergio Quezada MEX 10:29:11 10:25:32
13 Ryan Kelly USA 10:30:39 n/a
14 Holden Cameau USA 10:33:27 n/a
15 Ryan Cain CAN 10:50:16 n/a

Ben Hoffman improved on his last year’s result and held on for second, while Jason Shortis had the fastest marathon to capture the third spot.

Female Results

Heather Wurtele won her second IM this year, and leading from start to finish she actually managed to set a new course record:

Rank Name Nation Actual Time Expected Time
1 Heather Wurtele CAN 09:19:03 09:34:26
2 Tine Deckers BEL 09:34:41 09:39:44
3 Tyler Stewart USA 09:38:09 09:39:50
4 Jackie Arendt USA 09:56:21 10:08:16
5 Jacqui Gordon USA 10:07:22 10:10:36
6 Suzanne Zelazo CAN 10:21:08 11:18:11
7 Amber Ferreira USA 10:30:39 11:37:57
8 Miranda Alldritt CAN 10:46:46 10:51:00
9 Marie Danais CAN 10:48:26 10:24:03

Heather Wurtele is steadily improving, she is now rated as #12 and it’ll be interesting to see how she is going to do in Hawaii (if she is going to race there).

IM Germany 2011 – Analyzing Results

Race Conditions

The conditions on race day were pretty bad. A lot of athletes struggled with the rainy, wet conditions. Still, some of the results were pretty good, and I guess people don’t really blow up in colder conditions. The adjustment of 12:58 was pretty much in line with the course rating.

Male Results

Faris Al-Sultan ran away this year and further solidified his spot in the TOP 10 ratings:

Rank Name Nation Actual Time Expected Time
1 Faris Al-Sultan GER 08:13:50 08:15:50
2 Jan Raphael GER 08:19:31 08:27:28
3 Michael Goehner GER 08:20:26 08:22:21
4 George Potrebitsch GER 08:22:29 n/a
5 Stephan Vuckovic GER 08:26:03 08:36:00
6 Luke McKenzie AUS 08:26:51 08:37:33
7 Cameron Brown NZL 08:31:47 08:19:31
8 Bert Jammaer BEL 08:32:26 08:50:11
9 Patrick Vernay NCL 08:32:59 08:22:53
10 Teemu Lemmettyla FIN 08:36:36 09:20:28
11 Simon Billeau FRA 08:43:58 08:49:59
12 Uwe Widmann GER 08:46:33 08:29:53
13 Dirk Wijnalda NLD 08:49:15 09:08:40
14 Per Bittner GER 08:53:44 n/a
15 Mike Schifferle SWI 08:54:20 09:01:34
16 Sergio Marques PRT 08:57:53 08:51:49
17 Michael Wetzel GER 08:58:40 n/a
18 Frank Vytrisal GER 09:01:04 08:42:43
19 Andres Castillo latorre COL 09:05:06 09:12:21
20 Andrey Lyatskiy RUS 09:07:09 n/a
21 Erich Felbabel FRA 09:19:08 09:33:29
22 Marc-Andre Hages GER 09:22:20 n/a
23 Rene Goehler DEU 09:30:26 08:54:03
24 Matjaz Kovac SVN 09:34:50 09:38:41
25 Ivan Tejero Vazquez ESP 09:49:31 10:15:53
26 Hirotsugu Kuwabara JAP 10:07:34 09:49:57
27 Marek Nemcik SVK 12:23:10 11:57:49

The German podium made the locals happy. Cam Brown and Patrick Vernay couldn’t quite live up to their ratings – at least for Cam I hope that he is really preparing for IM Hawaii this year.

Female Results

On the female side, Caroline Steffen also seemed to run away with race, but she really struggled on the run – so the top 4 women were each just a minute apart:

Rank Name Nation Actual Time Expected Time
1 Caroline Steffen SWI 09:12:13 09:22:54
2 Lucie Zelenkova ZAF 09:13:46 09:26:51
3 Sonja Tajsich GER 09:14:14 09:18:27
4 Yvonne Van Vlerken AUT 09:15:37 09:06:59
5 Samantha Warriner NZL 09:18:04 09:18:33
6 Meike Krebs GER 09:22:43 09:41:49
7 Silvia Felt GER 09:26:21 09:24:29
8 Susan Dietrich GER 09:28:08 09:38:23
9 Heleen Bij De Vaate NLD 09:32:51 09:25:41
10 Virginia Berasategui ESP 09:37:00 09:27:49
11 Uli Bromme USA 09:44:10 09:45:27
12 Fernanda Keller BRA 11:07:02 10:08:14
13 Simone Benz SWI 11:08:53 09:52:27
14 Saki Kubota JAP 11:17:03 n/a

This resulted in a few shifts in the TOP 10: Yvonne lost a place (but is still #5), Sonja Tajsich is now #8, Sam Warriner is #11, Caroline Steffen is #18 and Lucie Zelenkova is #20. All this just goes to show what a big race IM Germany was on the women’s race!

IM UK 2011 – Predictions (Main Post)

As per usual, you can find additional information on the participants in the detail post.

Previous Results

The UK race has seen some changes in recent years, both in the venue and also in the layout of the course. So I’ve seen wild swings in the adjustments, they average out at the current course rating of 0:04.

Last year’s race was won by Fraser Cartmell in 8:40 and Yvette Grice in 10:01. The Baylisses (Stephen and Bella) scored two second places, each back by just a few minutes.

Male Participants

Stephen Bayliss is back his year and I see him as the favorite for the race:

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Stephen Bayliss GBR 08:42:14 08:49:38 70
2 Nick Saunders GBR 08:49:57 08:57:28 107
3 Philip Graves GBR 08:51:29 08:59:01 112
4 Domenico Passuello ITA 09:01:02 09:08:42 158
5 Gregorio Morales ESP 09:01:42 09:09:23 163
6 Romain Guillaume FRA 09:10:11 09:17:59 226
7 Toby Radcliffe GBR 09:16:51 09:24:44 278
8 Chris Brands NLD 09:17:45 09:25:39 287
9 Paul Hawkins GBR 09:35:02 09:43:11 397

The field is not too big, and it looks that the relevance for the race is limited to British athletes.

Female Participants

Yvette Grice is back to defend her title, but Tine Deckers appears to be the clear favorite:

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Tine Deckers BEL 09:32:03 09:40:09 29
2 Yvette Grice GBR 10:17:51 10:26:36 164
3 Monika Stadlmann AUT 10:18:35 10:27:21 170
4 Joanna Carritt GBR 10:24:38 10:33:29 183
5 Conny Dauben GER 10:42:50 10:51:57 219

Bella Bayliss is not back (I think she is pregnant), and it’ll be tricky for a British athlete to win the home race.

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