IM Western Australia 2011 – Predictions

The final race of the Ironman 2011 season is coming up this weekend: Ironman Western Australia.

Previous Results

Western Australia is one of the quicker courses with the same course rating as IM Germany (11:54). Last year’s winners were Courtney Ogden (8:14) and Kate Bevilaqua (9:19).

Male Participants

Defending champion Courtney Ogden faces some very strong competition for his title – he has only the 8th best rating! (Still, he has the second highest odds for winning.) The favorite has to be Timo Bracht – apparently he is repeating his last season with an early qualifier to secure his spot for Kona:

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Timo Bracht GER 08:13:08 08:24:14 7
2 Aaron Farlow AUS 08:27:14 08:38:39 28
3 Leon Griffin AUS 08:28:09 08:39:36 31
4 Maik Twelsiek GER 08:28:15 08:39:42 33
5 Luke McKenzie AUS 08:30:48 08:42:18 40
6 Clayton Fettell AUS 08:32:58 08:44:31 47
7 Mitchell Anderson AUS 08:33:41 08:45:15 54
8 Courtney Ogden AUS 08:34:32 08:46:07 59
9 Simon Billeau FRA 08:43:43 08:55:31 113
10 Jason Shortis AUS 08:46:28 08:58:19 125
11 Petr Vabrousek CZE 08:46:51 08:58:43 128
12 Guy Crawford AUS 08:50:45 09:02:42 150
13 Luke Whitmore AUS 08:54:52 09:06:55 175
14 Shinya Suganuma JPN 09:05:43 09:18:00 257
15 Chris Dmitrieff AUS 09:05:53 09:18:11 257
16 Dion Harrison GBR 09:16:32 09:29:04 345
17 James Bowstead NZL 09:24:40 09:37:23 401
18 Hirotsugu Kuwabara JAP 09:58:19 10:11:47 627

The odds for winning are as follows:

  • Timo Bracht: 60%
  • Courtney Ogden: 14%
  • Luke McKenzie: 9%
  • Mitchell Anderson: 7%
  • Jason Shortis: 4%
  • Maik Twelsiek: 3%
  • Aaron Farlow: 2%

Female Participants

Similar story on the women’s side: The defending champ (Kate Bevilaqua, ranked 4th) faces strong competition, even if the females athletes before her are not that well known:

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Kristin Moeller GER 09:22:07 09:34:47 22
2 Carrie Lester AUS 09:31:40 09:44:32 46
3 Michelle Mitchell AUS 09:32:42 09:45:36 48
4 Kate Bevilaqua AUS 09:45:05 09:58:16 78
5 Emi Shiono JPN 09:55:25 10:08:50 110
6 Hillary Biscay USA 10:03:19 10:16:54 145
7 Yvette Grice GBR 10:07:01 10:20:41 157
8 Elly Franks AUS 10:16:38 10:30:31 183
9 Jodie Scott AUS 10:27:01 10:41:08 207
10 Michelle Bremer NZL n/a unrated n/a

The odds for winning are as follows (again the defending champ looks better in the odds than in the ratings):

  • Kristin Moeller: 35%
  • Kate Bevilaqua: 22%
  • Michelle Mitchell: 18%
  • Carrie Lester: 16%
  • Emi Shiono: 4%
  • Yvette Grice: 3%
  • Hillary Biscay: 2%

IM Cozumel 2011 – Analyzing Results

Race Conditions

Adjustments in Cozumel are settling in at around 11 minutes, this time at 10:50. From what I heard conditions were all over the place, with sunshine, rain and wind. Not sure if that was causing it, but a lot of big names had to pull out, most notably pre-race favorite Mathias Hecht and defending champion Yvonne van Vlercken.

Male Results

Michael Lovato managed a solid race when all the people that came off the bike with him ran into problems. One of those athletes is Christian Ritter who was even leading the race on the run. He finished as the last pro (at least fulfilling his “at least one IM” requirement and snagging 50 points in the KPR).

Rank Name Nation Actual Time Expected Time
1 Michael Lovato USA 08:23:52 08:37:43
2 Patrick Evoe USA 08:30:36 08:46:19
3 Alejandro Santamaria ESP 08:32:50 08:54:39
4 Zach Ruble USA 08:34:51 09:07:11
5 Andrey Lyatskiy RUS 08:43:05 09:07:30
6 Trevor Delsaut FRA 08:44:03 08:54:30
7 Brandon Marsh USA 08:45:43 08:59:58
8 Bruno Clerbout BEL 08:47:07 09:05:27
9 Markus Thomschke   08:51:23 n/a
10 Axel Zeebroek BEL 08:54:06 08:39:27
11 Raul Furtado BRA 08:54:39 09:07:02
12 Mike Schifferle SWI 09:01:18 08:59:37
13 Brendan Halpin USA 09:04:36 09:30:27
14 Richard Thompson   09:05:17 n/a
15 Michael Wetzel GER 09:07:02 08:59:01
16 Ben Cotter CAN 09:08:05 09:23:31
17 Andres Castillo Latorre COL 09:08:06 09:05:13
18 Gregorio Morales ESP 09:11:49 08:58:23
19 Luiz Francisco Ferreira BRA 09:19:46 09:01:46
20 Adam O’Meara CAN 09:20:26 09:25:30
21 Tim Snow USA 09:21:03 09:17:33
22 Oscar Galindez ARG 09:27:15 08:44:42
23 Sergio Quezada MEX 09:27:31 10:15:31
24 Patrick Wallimann SWI 09:35:38 09:00:51
25 Christopher Bagg USA 09:38:04 08:53:24
26 Horst Reichel GER 09:38:20 08:59:58
27 Luca De Paolis ITA 09:41:16 n/a
28 Simon Malo CAN 09:47:58 09:36:57
29 Cesar Valera VEN 09:55:39 09:59:41
30 Richard Wygand BRA 10:03:04 10:46:27
31 Christian Ritter GER 11:04:22 08:36:19

Female Results

On the women’s side Simone Benz won her first Ironman. She held on during the run after Sonja Tajsich suffered a flat on the bike and was too far back  to catch her:

Rank Name Nation Actual Time Expected Time
1 Simone Benz SWI 09:14:08 10:11:25
2 Sonja Tajsich GER 09:23:15 09:17:08
3 Sophie De Groote   09:26:07 n/a
4 Terra Castro USA 09:39:35 10:11:41
5 Kristin Andrews   09:42:14 n/a
6 Sara Gross CAN 09:56:29 09:41:44
7 Sarah Piampiano   09:57:58 n/a
8 Francesca Tibaldi   10:01:39 n/a
9 Tatiana Vertiz   10:15:06 n/a
10 Anne Basso FRA 10:18:53 10:06:04
11 Federica Frontini URU 10:22:41 10:37:36
12 Tami Ritchie   10:26:04 n/a
13 Conny Dauben GER 10:40:38 10:34:48
14 Annett Kamenz CAN 11:23:14 09:56:44
15 Mariana Andrade BRA 11:36:34 10:26:34

IM Cozumel 2011 – Predictions

I’m pretty busy in my day job right now, but Chris Bagg sent me an email asking for my predictions, so I put something together based on the start list on the Cozumel website. With the new IM Pro membership, there are quite a few athletes signing up for a lot of races. When they cancel, the lists are rarely updated accordingly. For example Dirk Bockel was on the list for Arizona, even though he had said weeks before that he wouldn’t start. So I hope this list doesn’t change too much before the start of the race …

Male Participants

Matthias Hecht is the favorite for winning the race:

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Mathias Hecht SWI 08:33:56 08:42:07 37
2 Stephan Vuckovic GER 08:37:25 08:45:40 54
3 Swen Sundberg GER 08:37:55 08:46:10 60
4 Christian Ritter GER 08:38:42 08:46:58 65
5 Michael Lovato USA 08:40:03 08:48:20 72
6 Chris McDonald AUS 08:40:13 08:48:30 74
7 Axel Zeebroek BEL 08:41:47 08:50:06 86
8 Oscar Galindez ARG 08:47:03 08:55:27 110
9 Patrick Evoe USA 08:48:41 08:57:06 116
10 Mikel Elgezabal ESP 08:52:31 09:01:00 136
11 Christopher Bagg USA 08:55:47 09:04:19 151
12 Alejandro Santamaria ESP 08:57:04 09:05:37 160
13 Trevor Delsaut FRA 08:57:07 09:05:40 161
14 Ian Mikelson USA 08:59:09 09:07:44 174
15 Balazs Csoke HUN 09:00:17 09:08:53 180
16 Michael Wetzel GER 09:01:26 09:10:04 187
17 Horst Reichel GER 09:02:25 09:11:04 193
18 Brandon Marsh USA 09:02:26 09:11:05 194
19 Mike Schifferle SWI 09:03:28 09:12:08 200
20 Patrick Wallimann SWI 09:03:34 09:12:14 201
21 Luiz Francisco Ferreira BRA 09:04:12 09:12:52 207
22 Bruno Clerbout BEL 09:07:57 09:16:41 233
23 Raul Furtado BRA 09:09:30 09:18:15 250
24 Zach Ruble USA 09:09:34 09:18:19 252
25 Andrey Lyatskiy RUS 09:09:58 09:18:44 257
26 Tim Snow USA 09:20:02 09:28:57 333
27 Ben Cotter CAN 09:26:02 09:35:03 374
28 Adam O’Meara CAN 09:28:01 09:37:04 385
29 Brendan Halpin USA 09:32:59 09:42:07 418
30 Simon Malo CAN 09:39:28 09:48:42 465
31 Cesar Valera VEN 10:02:21 10:11:57 612
32 Bojan Maric SCG 10:05:19 10:14:58 629
33 Sergio Quezada MEX 10:18:16 10:28:07 694
34 Richard Wygand BRA 10:49:21 10:59:42 778
35 Luca De Paolis ITA n/a unrated n/a

Here are the percentages for winning the race:

  • Mathias Hecht: 28%
  • Michael Lovato: 24%
  • Swen Sundberg: 12%
  • Stephan Vuckovic: 12%
  • Chris McDonald: 8%
  • Axel Zeebroek: 6%
  • Patrick Evoe: 4%
  • Oscar Galindez: 2%

Female Participants

On the women’s side, I’m picking my country woman Sonja Tajsich for winning the race:

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Sonja Tajsich GER 09:19:39 09:28:34 9
2 Erika Csomor HUN 09:27:10 09:36:12 24
3 Amanda Stevens USA 09:34:48 09:43:57 42
4 Sara Gross CAN 09:48:52 09:58:15 77
5 Ana Lidia Borba BRA 09:52:02 10:01:28 85
6 Annett Kamenz CAN 09:59:22 10:08:55 109
7 Anne Basso FRA 10:08:48 10:18:30 143
8 Simone Benz SWI 10:14:12 10:23:59 159
9 Terra Castro USA 10:14:20 10:24:07 160
10 Mariana Andrade BRA 10:29:21 10:39:23 198
11 Conny Dauben GER 10:37:40 10:47:50 218
12 Federica Frontini URU 10:40:28 10:50:40 222
13 Amanda Lovato USA 10:58:32 11:09:02 252

There are a few “shaky” candidates on the list (Amanda Stevens just raced in Arizona), but here are the odds for winning:

  • Sonja Tajsich: 50%
  • Erika Csomor: 33%
  • Amanda Stevens: 6%
  • Annett Kamenz: 5%
  • Sara Gross: 4%

IM Arizona 2011 – Analyzing Results

Race Conditions

Arizona has been quite consistent with the adjustment in the last years, and this year it came in at 12:25. It started with a few slower years and has course rating of 7:57, quite a bit slower than Florida (22:04 this year, overall 14:16).

Male Results

Eneko Llanos was the second male athlete posting a sub-8 result in North America within two weekends. As noted above, Arizona is a slower course than Florida, so his performance was more than just a few seconds better than the clock time showed.

Rank Name Nation Actual Time Expected Time
1 Eneko Llanos ESP 07:59:38 08:13:08
2 Paul Amey USA 08:01:29 08:33:40
3 Victor Zyemtsev USA 08:14:36 08:33:51
4 Torsten Abel GER 08:16:44 08:37:57
5 Stephane Poulat 08:18:55 n/a
6 Sebastian Kienle GER 08:19:29 08:05:57
7 Jeremy Jurkiewicz FRA 08:19:38 08:29:28
8 Michael Weiss AUT 08:21:36 08:21:18
9 Trevor Wurtele CAN 08:22:21 09:08:01
10 Christophe Bastie FRA 08:26:10 08:42:17
11 Scott Neyedli GBR 08:29:03 08:40:21
12 Matthew Russell USA 08:29:19 08:59:53
13 Stefan Schmid 08:32:59 08:58:47
14 Patrick Jaberg 08:33:50 08:58:18
15 Nick Waninger 08:34:14 n/a
16 Joe Umphenour 08:36:10 n/a
17 Lewis Elliot USA 08:38:13 09:31:56
18 Gudmund Snilstveit NOR 08:38:39 08:47:58
19 Ryan Rau 08:40:54 09:39:22
20 Mike Schifferle SWI 08:41:48 08:59:21
21 Flo Kriegl AUT 08:44:46 n/a
22 Kevin Taddonio 08:45:51 08:46:00
23 Pedro Gomez POR 08:46:19 08:22:04
24 Jared Milam 08:47:23 n/a
25 Fraser Cartmell GBR 08:50:14 08:36:21
26 Jesse Vondracek USA 08:53:56 09:18:52
27 Thomas Gerlach 08:57:00 10:06:55
28 Timothy O’Donnell USA 08:59:36 08:04:24
29 Christian Nitschke 08:59:56 08:48:30
30 Ivan Albano BRA 09:01:14 09:09:08
31 Dominik Berger AUT 09:02:52 08:56:15
32 Jeff Paul 09:05:19 n/a
33 Dave Harju CAN 09:08:42 09:06:51
34 Douglas Maclean 09:09:57 09:52:50
35 Erich Kunz SUI 09:12:03 08:54:03
36 Chris Boudreaux 09:20:19 n/a
37 Chad Johnston 09:26:25 09:30:28
38 Oliver Simon 09:26:33 08:51:28
39 Stefano Paoli ITA 09:33:08 09:36:14
40 Andrew Powell 09:37:59 10:09:50
41 Arland Macasieb PHL 09:44:30 10:04:31
42 Ryan Kelly USA 10:25:41 10:18:59
43 Marek Nemcik SVK 11:19:16 12:03:12
44 John Dahlz USA 11:21:09 10:36:32

One other thing came out of this race: Tim O’Donnell was leading the race after the bike and dropped to 28th on the run. His 3:44 was probably the slowest marathon for a sub-9 finish – probably one of the weirder records in Ironman racing.

Female Results

On the women’s side, we also had a “sub-x result”, in fact both the winner Leanda Cave and second place Linsey Corbin broke 9 hours. Meredith Kessler was just 15 seconds away.

Rank Name Nation Actual Time Expected Time
1 Leanda Cave GBR 08:49:00 09:22:32
2 Linsey Corbin USA 08:54:33 09:21:09
3 Meredith Kessler USA 09:00:14 09:27:16
4 Amanda Stevens USA 09:09:39 09:30:28
5 Michelle Vesterby 09:11:23 n/a
6 Kelly Williamson USA 09:12:18 09:21:58
7 Kathleen Calkins 09:12:40 n/a
8 Sara Gross CAN 09:18:03 09:44:29
9 Susan Dietrich GER 09:19:47 09:31:44
10 Charisa Wernick USA 09:22:37 10:18:00
11 Jessie Donavan 09:24:52 n/a
12 Jessica Smith 09:34:45 n/a
13 Whitney Garcia 09:40:22 12:46:28
14 Lisa Ribes 09:41:55 09:48:21
15 Amber Ferreira USA 09:42:20 10:49:00
16 Mirjam Weerd NLD 09:45:50 09:39:27
17 Kelly Liljeblad USA 09:49:41 10:15:31
18 Regula Rohrbach SUI 09:50:10 09:44:15
19 Caroline Gregory USA 09:50:44 09:57:58
20 Rebekka Essmiller Ger 09:51:21 10:22:25
21 Erin Spitler 09:55:03 10:04:01
22 Jeanne Collonge FRA 09:57:26 09:47:12
23 Marie Danais CAN 09:58:21 10:20:03

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