Analyzing IM South Africa 2011

Chrissie Wellington had another amazing race in South Africa – this is what most triathlon new sites are reporting. Here’s a closer look at the statistical outcome of this race.

Race Adjustment

IM South Africa is usually a medium quick race (course handicap around 10 minutes), but in the last few years has been a bit faster – not sure what has caused this, but there might have been some course changes before the 2008 race. Compared to these years, the 2011 race was typical with an adjustment of 17:27. (To recap, the adjustment is the average difference between the participant’s ratings and their actual race time.) Conditions have been reported to be quite nice, but maybe a bit hot during the run. This may have contributed to quite a few big names dropping out, for example the pre-race favorite Marino Vanhoenacker, Luke Bell, Rutger Beke, Jason Shortis, Michael Göhner, Bert Jammaer and Natascha Badmann. Tom Lowe didn’t even start the race, but I haven’t heard anything of why that was the case.

Female Results

As noted above, the big result this weekend was Chrissie Wellington’s quick time, so I’ll start with the females:

Rank Name Nation Actual Time Expected Time
1 Chrissie Wellington GBR 08:33:56 08:40:32
2 Rachel Joyce GBR 09:08:23 09:23:52
3 Diana Riesler GER 09:20:37 n/a
4 Silvia Felt GER 09:24:31 n/a
5 Amanda Stevens USA 09:25:50 n/a
6 Belinda Granger AUS 09:28:59 09:28:29
7 Simone Benz SWI 09:31:21 10:55:35
8 Martina Dogana ITA 09:47:47 09:40:28
9 Yvette Grice GBR 09:59:28 10:14:56
10 Eva Dollinger AUT 10:00:24 09:34:34
11 Claire Horner SAF 10:11:55 10:47:25
12 Helen Buley SAF 10:26:29 10:17:14
13 Caroline Koll SAF 10:37:39 10:17:59

Expected time is based on athlete’s rating (prior to race) and race conditions.

Chrissie posted a quicker time than her 8:36 at IM Arizona time from last November. (I find it a bit silly to call it an “IM world record” knowing that she posted an 8:19 in Roth 2010.)  Looking at the statistics, the TOP4 best results ever are from Chrissie – and all on different courses!

Rank Name Adjusted Result Actual Result Race
1 Wellington, Chrissie 08:40:26 08:19:13 Challenge Roth on 2010-07-18
2 Wellington, Chrissie 08:48:59 08:54:02 IM Hawaii on 2009-10-10
3 Wellington, Chrissie 08:50:32 08:33:56 IM South Africa on 2011-04-10
4 Wellington, Chrissie 09:00:42 08:36:13 IM Arizona on 2010-11-21

Simply amazing – for me that’s about as impressive as the fact that Chrissie posted the overall best run split. The sky seems to be the limit for her.

Behind Chrissie, Rachel Joyce had another great race, but her excellent 9:03 – twenty minutes quicker than expected – pales in comparison with Chrissie’s performance. With Natascha not finishing, I predicted Belinda Granger to round out the TOP3, but even with her solid 9:28 (almost exactly as predicted) it was a trio of three unrated pros coming in before her and Diana Riesler getting the third spot.

Male Results

On the male side, there was quite a bit back and forth at the top of the race, and finally home favorite Raynard Tissink was able to defend his title from last year. All the athletes that were much better rated than him dropped out (most notably Marino Vanhoenacker who was right in the mix), but it was a hard-fought win and he had to post a new course record of 8:05, more than 20 minutes quicker than expected. A really great performance from such an established athlete!

Rank Name Nation Actual Time Expected Time
1 Raynard Tissink SAF 08:05:36 08:28:38
2 Andreas Bocherer GER 08:08:36 09:12:29
3 James Cunnama ZAF 08:13:18 08:47:47
4 Daniel Fontana ITA 08:18:51 08:33:00
5 Cyril Viennot FRA 08:30:42 n/a
6 Eduardo Sturla ARG 08:32:52 08:27:20
7 Uwe Widmann GER 08:33:39 08:30:42
8 Petr Vabrousek CZE 08:40:36 08:46:06
9 Trevor Delsaut FRA 08:41:57 n/a
10 Balazs Csoke HUN 08:43:06 n/a
11 Dominik Berger AUT 08:52:24 n/a
12 Kent Horner SAF 08:58:39 09:18:39
13 Toby Radcliffe GBR 09:01:17 09:17:13
14 Mike Schifferle SWI 09:04:02 09:07:13
15 Sergio Marques PRT 09:09:30 08:50:00
16 Craig Twigg GBR 09:10:01 n/a
17 Gilad Rotem ISR 09:12:06 n/a
18 Erik-Simon Strijk NDL 09:16:32 n/a
19 Bryn Freeman SAF 09:23:29 09:27:21
20 Erich Felbabel FRA 09:23:36 n/a
21 Marcel Bischof GER 09:32:47 n/a
22 Heinrich Sickl AUT 10:08:14 09:28:07
23 Freddy Lampret SAF 10:46:11 09:38:47

Expected time is based on athlete’s rating (prior to race) and race conditions. 

After Raynard, my young countryman Andy Böcherer had a great result and came in second – more than one hour quicker than expected! (Then again, I just had one race in my database for him, probably one of his slower results.) Another South African, James Cunnama, managed to snag the last spot on the podium, he was also more than half an hour quicker than expected. A lot of people had told me that Cunnama was underrated before the race, so I’ll have a look at my methodology before my next round of predictions for IM Australia …

Looking forward to IM South Africa (Main Post)

The next race on the IM calendar is coming up soon: IM South Africa will be held on April 10th. I’ve put together a preview for this race, based on the pro list (from early March) from their website at http://www.triangle.cc/event/default.asp?micrositeid=2. This list is almost a month old, so some changes are to be expected.

The Course

IM South Africa is medium fast race  with a course rating of 10:31. It is 8 1/2 minutes faster than IM Hawaii (course rating of 1:53), but more than 15 minutes slower than Challenge Roth (course rating of 27:41). The last few years, however, were pretty quick (race handicaps of 17 to 22 minutes), so if the conditions are right, the race can be fast (comparable to typical results at IM Arizona).

The Male Field

Here are the predictions for the male pros (for more infos, see my IM South Africa details):

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Marino Vanhoenacker BEL 08:17:19 08:33:38 8
2 Tom Lowe GBR 08:18:43 08:35:04 9
3 Michael Goehner GER 08:24:32 08:41:05 15
4 Eduardo Sturla ARG 08:27:37 08:44:16 21
5 Rutger Beke BEL 08:27:49 08:44:28 22
6 Raynard Tissink SAF 08:28:56 08:45:37 23
7 Uwe Widmann GER 08:31:00 08:47:45 29
8 Swen Sundberg GER 08:39:35 08:56:37 47
9 Jason Shortis AUS 08:39:38 08:56:40 48
10 Petr Vabrousek CZE 08:46:24 09:03:40 74
11 James Cunnama ZAF 08:48:05 09:05:24 81
12 Luke Bell AUS 08:48:52 09:06:13 84
13 Sergio Marques PRT 08:50:18 09:07:41 87
14 Bert Jammaer BEL 08:59:28 09:17:10 110
15 Patrick Wallimann SWI 09:01:03 09:18:48 123
16 Mike Schifferle SWI 09:07:32 09:25:29 161
17 Andreas Bocherer GER 09:12:47 09:30:55 184
18 Toby Radcliffe GBR 09:17:32 09:35:49 206
19 Heinrich Sickl AUT 09:28:26 09:47:05 253

Some interesting things:

  • it’ll be interesting to see the race between the established Marino Vanhoenacker (with excellent results over the last 6 seasons) and the newcomer Tom Lowe (whose single results from IM Arizona last November would be good enough for a spot on the TOP 10).
  • If both of them race, look for the pair of Rutger Beke and Rayard Tissink. Rutger hasn’t had too many good IM results lately, while Raynard has had a great IM Hawaii and is always racing strong in his home race. (However, Raynard is rumored to consider dropping out of the race.)

The Female Pro Field

I’ve got some predictions for the women’s field as well (again, for some previous race results, see my IM South Africa details post):

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Chrissie Wellington GBR 08:40:49 08:57:54 1
2 Natascha Badmann SWI 09:11:38 09:29:43 5
3 Rachel Joyce GBR 09:24:11 09:42:41 16
4 Belinda Granger AUS 09:28:48 09:47:27 23
5 Eva Dollinger AUT 09:34:54 09:53:45 35
6 Martina Dogana ITA 09:40:48 09:59:51 43
7 Yvette Grice GBR 10:15:17 10:35:28 122
8 Nicole Woysch GER 10:37:44 10:58:39 153
9 Simone Benz SWI 10:55:57 11:17:28 171

Some things of note here:

  • The real question for the women’s race is probably not if Chrissie is going to win but how far up in the men’s field she’s going to end up. Based on the ratings, I’m calling a TOP 10 finish, but not much higher up if the people from the pro list actually show up.
  • I’m quite interested in how Natascha Badmann is going to perform: Her last posted race is more than four years ago, and she’s had some up and down years in between. If she has a solid race, she should be able to finish runner-up.
  • However, Rachel Joyce and Belinda Granger are solid racers that are not too far off – and they will try to make the race for TOP3 interesting.

Looking forward to IM South Africa (Athlete Details)

In case you’re interested and want to dig a little deeper, here is a look at all rated Pro athletes and the results I have for them in the database.

Male Race Participants

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Marino Vanhoenacker BEL 08:17:19 08:33:38 8
2 Tom Lowe GBR 08:18:43 08:35:04 9
3 Michael Goehner GER 08:24:32 08:41:05 15
4 Eduardo Sturla ARG 08:27:37 08:44:16 21
5 Rutger Beke BEL 08:27:49 08:44:28 22
6 Raynard Tissink SAF 08:28:56 08:45:37 23
7 Uwe Widmann GER 08:31:00 08:47:45 29
8 Swen Sundberg GER 08:39:35 08:56:37 47
9 Jason Shortis AUS 08:39:38 08:56:40 48
10 Petr Vabrousek CZE 08:46:24 09:03:40 74
11 James Cunnama ZAF 08:48:05 09:05:24 81
12 Luke Bell AUS 08:48:52 09:06:13 84
13 Sergio Marques PRT 08:50:18 09:07:41 87
14 Bert Jammaer BEL 08:59:28 09:17:10 110
15 Patrick Wallimann SWI 09:01:03 09:18:48 123
16 Mike Schifferle SWI 09:07:32 09:25:29 161
17 Andreas Bocherer GER 09:12:47 09:30:55 184
18 Toby Radcliffe GBR 09:17:32 09:35:49 206
19 Heinrich Sickl AUT 09:28:26 09:47:05 253

Female Race Participants

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Chrissie Wellington GBR 08:40:49 08:57:54 1
2 Natascha Badmann SWI 09:11:38 09:29:43 5
3 Rachel Joyce GBR 09:24:11 09:42:41 16
4 Belinda Granger AUS 09:28:48 09:47:27 23
5 Eva Dollinger AUT 09:34:54 09:53:45 35
6 Martina Dogana ITA 09:40:48 09:59:51 43
7 Yvette Grice GBR 10:15:17 10:35:28 122
8 Nicole Woysch GER 10:37:44 10:58:39 153
9 Simone Benz SWI 10:55:57 11:17:28 171

Results for Marino Vanhoenacker (BEL)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 08:13:14 08:18:47 08:33:38 3
IM South Africa 2009-04-05 08:17:32 08:34:36 08:38:26 1
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 08:53:14 08:54:07 08:39:43 22
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 08:23:31 08:26:41 08:33:10 5
IM Hawaii 2006-10-21 08:24:17 08:27:32 08:37:16 6
IM Florida 2005-11-05 08:28:26 08:48:38 08:48:38 1

Results for Tom Lowe (GBR)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Arizona 2010-11-21 08:11:44 08:35:04 08:35:04 3

Results for Michael Goehner (GER)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
Challenge Roth 2010-07-18 08:13:09 08:34:07 08:41:05 4
Challenge Roth 2009-07-12 07:55:53 08:26:44 08:43:13 1
IM South Africa 2009-04-05 08:32:01 08:49:35 08:48:57 2
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 08:43:55 08:47:12 08:48:38 18
IM Hawaii 2006-10-21 08:53:47 08:57:13 08:49:34 33
Challenge Roth 2005-06-24 08:21:34 08:40:05 08:40:05 5

Results for Eduardo Sturla (ARG)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 08:48:07 08:54:03 08:44:16 31
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 08:49:22 08:44:22 08:40:40 19
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 08:36:53 08:37:44 08:38:59 10
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 08:36:31 08:39:46 08:39:46 13
IM Florida 2006-11-04 08:23:49 08:39:46 08:39:46 2

Results for Rutger Beke (BEL)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 09:17:19 09:23:35 08:44:28 51
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 08:21:23 08:22:13 08:30:19 3
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 11:13:58 11:18:12 08:33:11 89
IM Arizona 2007-04-15 08:21:14 08:38:52 08:33:11 1
IM Hawaii 2006-10-21 08:21:04 08:24:18 08:31:00 4
IM Lake Placid 2006-07-23 08:46:44 08:43:19 08:34:42 3
IM Hawaii 2005-10-15 08:22:30 08:24:56 08:24:56 4

Results for Raynard Tissink (SAF)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 08:20:11 08:25:48 08:45:37 5
IM South Africa 2010-04-25 08:23:28 08:39:27 08:48:46 1
IM Florida 2009-11-07 08:40:21 09:06:59 08:50:23 8
IM Wisconsin 2009-09-13 08:45:19 08:50:02 08:47:12 1
Challenge Roth 2009-07-12 08:07:18 08:38:54 08:46:33 7
Challenge Roth 2008-07-13 08:55:59 09:27:38 08:48:45 19
IM South Africa 2008-04-13 08:23:09 08:43:56 08:36:10 2
IM South Africa 2007-03-18 08:36:07 08:37:31 08:32:41 2
IM South Africa 2006-03-18 08:37:37 08:31:04 08:29:44 2
IM Hawaii 2005-10-15 08:25:52 08:28:19 08:28:19 7

Results for Uwe Widmann (GER)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Florida 2008-11-01 08:25:34 08:53:36 08:47:45 5
IM Hawaii 2006-10-21 08:42:24 08:45:46 08:43:20 22
IM Hawaii 2005-10-15 08:37:57 08:40:28 08:40:28 15

Results for Swen Sundberg (GER)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Florida 2010-11-06 08:33:44 08:59:03 08:56:37 10
Challenge Roth 2009-07-12 08:07:50 08:39:28 08:56:00 8
IM Florida 2008-11-01 08:26:52 08:54:59 09:00:20 6
Challenge Roth 2008-07-13 08:30:47 09:00:57 09:01:59 8
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 08:57:37 09:01:00 09:02:25 27
IM Coeur d’Alene 2007-06-23 09:14:41 09:18:17 09:03:14 9
IM Arizona 2006-04-09 08:30:07 08:44:55 08:44:55 4

Results for Jason Shortis (AUS)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM South Africa 2010-04-25 08:34:52 08:51:13 08:56:40 4
IM Lake Placid 2009-07-26 08:58:09 08:55:58 08:58:25 3
IM Wisconsin 2008-09-07 08:59:14 09:10:02 08:59:23 3
Challenge Roth 2006-06-24 08:30:55 08:55:07 08:53:50 8
IM Hawaii 2005-10-15 08:57:06 08:59:42 08:53:06 38
Challenge Roth 2005-06-24 08:27:25 08:46:09 08:46:09 8

Results for Petr Vabrousek (CZE)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM New Zealand 2011-03-05 08:58:30 09:05:31 09:03:40 6
Challenge Wanaka 2011-01-01 09:27:44 09:11:56 09:03:34 5
IM Florida 2010-11-06 08:29:59 08:55:06 09:03:07 7
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 08:56:26 09:02:28 09:03:34 41
IM Canada 2010-08-29 08:39:16 08:58:26 09:03:38 4
IM Lake Placid 2010-07-25 08:46:33 08:56:27 09:03:56 2
Challenge Wanaka 2010-01-16 09:00:08 09:12:27 09:04:25 4
IM Arizona 2009-11-22 08:37:45 09:08:11 09:03:55 10
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 09:23:03 09:17:44 09:03:39 50
IM Wisconsin 2009-09-13 09:08:26 09:13:22 09:02:42 7
IM Lake Placid 2009-07-26 09:10:24 09:08:10 09:01:57 6
Challenge Roth 2009-07-12 08:15:03 08:47:09 09:01:29 10
IM South Africa 2009-04-05 08:36:07 08:53:49 09:02:38 3
Challenge Wanaka 2009-01-01 08:44:38 08:59:34 09:08:58 2
IM Arizona 2008-11-23 08:28:09 08:46:30 09:09:44 8
IM Florida 2008-11-01 08:23:00 08:50:54 09:11:46 3
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 09:04:42 09:05:36 09:13:44 33
IM Lake Placid 2008-07-20 08:55:20 08:59:08 09:14:35 2
Challenge Wanaka 2008-01-19 09:09:36 09:22:06 09:16:18 7
IM Florida 2007-11-03 08:53:05 09:18:47 09:15:38 21
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 09:42:26 09:46:05 09:15:15 71
IM Arizona 2007-04-15 08:41:59 09:00:20 09:10:56 4
IM South Africa 2007-03-18 08:48:19 08:49:45 09:12:30 4
IM Hawaii 2006-10-21 09:10:45 09:14:18 09:16:24 54
IM Lake Placid 2006-07-23 09:03:12 08:59:41 09:16:48 7
IM Arizona 2006-04-09 08:44:54 09:00:08 09:20:38 8
IM South Africa 2006-03-18 08:38:52 08:32:18 09:26:12 3
IM Hawaii 2005-10-15 09:12:17 09:14:58 09:46:05 54
IM Wisconsin 2005-09-11 11:19:03 11:10:14 10:02:25 22
IM Arizona 2005-04-09 08:49:46 08:49:46 08:49:46 4

Results for James Cunnama (ZAF)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Florida 2010-11-06 08:15:59 08:40:25 09:05:24 1
Challenge Roth 2010-07-18 08:18:47 08:39:59 09:12:01 5
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 09:25:05 09:19:45 09:22:48 53
IM South Africa 2009-04-05 08:55:24 09:13:46 09:24:06 6
IM South Africa 2008-04-13 08:52:17 09:14:16 09:30:41 10
IM South Africa 2007-03-18 09:48:38 09:50:13 09:50:13 13

Results for Luke Bell (AUS)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 09:24:34 09:30:55 09:06:13 53
IM Coeur d’Alene 2010-06-27 08:43:16 09:04:11 08:58:46 4
IM Canada 2009-08-30 09:26:26 09:33:40 08:56:34 19
IM New Zealand 2007-03-03 08:27:41 08:44:27 08:36:17 2
IM Hawaii 2006-10-21 08:24:26 08:27:41 08:31:35 7
IM Hawaii 2005-10-15 08:33:43 08:36:12 08:36:12 13

Results for Sergio Marques (PRT)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 09:41:02 09:35:32 09:07:41 63
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 09:47:16 09:48:14 09:00:18 66
Challenge Roth 2008-07-13 11:10:37 11:50:14 08:46:19 26
IM Florida 2007-11-03 08:23:49 08:48:07 08:46:19 2
IM Hawaii 2006-10-21 08:40:32 08:43:53 08:45:43 19
IM Arizona 2006-04-09 08:31:26 08:46:17 08:46:26 5
IM Hawaii 2005-10-15 08:43:45 08:46:17 08:46:31 20
IM Arizona 2005-04-09 08:46:47 08:46:47 08:46:47 3

Results for Bert Jammaer (BEL)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 09:41:51 09:48:23 09:17:10 58
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 08:41:13 08:36:17 09:07:19 16
IM Florida 2008-11-01 09:43:19 10:15:40 09:18:43 38
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 08:35:53 08:39:07 08:52:28 12
IM Hawaii 2006-10-21 09:01:47 09:05:16 09:00:57 45
IM Hawaii 2005-10-15 08:53:16 08:55:51 08:55:51 32

Results for Patrick Wallimann (SWI)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 09:25:33 09:20:12 09:18:48 54
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 09:01:16 09:02:10 09:17:55 30
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 09:32:51 09:36:27 09:36:27 61

Results for Mike Schifferle (SWI)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Arizona 2010-11-21 08:47:53 09:12:56 09:25:29 11
IM Florida 2010-11-06 09:09:02 09:36:05 09:27:55 22
IM Wisconsin 2010-09-12 08:58:35 09:10:26 09:25:58 8
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 09:08:49 09:03:38 09:30:42 34
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 09:21:13 09:22:09 09:40:19 53
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 09:28:17 09:31:51 09:48:12 57
IM Florida 2006-11-04 09:41:45 10:00:10 09:57:45 31
IM Hawaii 2006-10-21 09:51:31 09:55:20 09:55:20 77

Results for Andreas Bocherer (GER)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 09:24:34 09:30:55 09:30:55 53

Results for Toby Radcliffe (GBR)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Florida 2010-11-06 09:01:02 09:27:41 09:35:49 19
IM Arizona 2009-11-22 09:12:44 09:45:13 09:40:59 18
IM Florida 2008-11-01 09:05:41 09:35:57 09:35:57 24

Results for Heinrich Sickl (AUT)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Arizona 2010-11-21 09:01:31 09:27:12 09:47:05 16
IM Arizona 2008-11-23 09:32:21 09:53:01 09:52:59 32
IM Canada 2008-08-24 09:16:53 09:35:03 09:52:59 21
IM Wisconsin 2007-09-09 09:42:46 09:56:24 09:59:21 16
IM Florida 2006-11-04 09:56:35 10:15:28 10:00:39 34
IM Florida 2005-11-05 09:21:53 09:44:12 09:51:31 20
IM Arizona 2005-04-09 09:59:34 09:59:34 09:59:34 25

Results for Chrissie Wellington (GBR)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Arizona 2010-11-21 08:36:13 09:00:42 08:57:54 1
Challenge Roth 2010-07-18 08:19:13 08:40:26 08:57:10 1
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 08:54:02 08:48:59 09:02:32 1
Challenge Roth 2009-07-12 08:31:59 09:05:11 09:07:53 1
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 09:06:23 09:07:17 09:09:33 1
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 09:08:45 09:12:12 09:12:12 1

Results for Natascha Badmann (SWI)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM South Africa 2007-03-18 09:22:01 09:23:32 09:29:43 1
IM Hawaii 2006-10-21 09:38:52 09:42:36 09:32:07 10
IM South Africa 2006-03-18 09:46:38 09:39:12 09:26:09 1
IM Hawaii 2005-10-15 09:09:30 09:12:10 09:12:10 1

Results for Rachel Joyce (GBR)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 09:18:48 09:25:05 09:42:41 5
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 09:32:27 09:27:02 09:50:08 6
IM South Africa 2009-04-05 09:37:00 09:56:48 10:03:07 3
IM Florida 2008-11-01 09:37:50 10:09:53 10:09:53 5

Results for Belinda Granger (AUS)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
Challenge Wanaka 2011-01-01 10:26:17 10:08:51 09:47:27 1
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 10:18:29 10:25:26 09:45:20 30
Challenge Roth 2010-07-18 09:15:25 09:39:02 09:41:06 4
IM Canada 2009-08-30 09:40:48 09:48:13 09:41:20 2
Challenge Roth 2009-07-12 09:12:12 09:48:00 09:40:35 5
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 09:56:01 09:57:00 09:39:42 17
IM Canada 2008-08-24 09:17:58 09:36:10 09:37:40 1
Challenge Roth 2008-07-13 08:58:08 09:29:55 09:37:52 4
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 09:37:54 09:41:32 09:39:01 9
IM Lake Placid 2007-07-22 09:40:20 09:43:44 09:38:39 1
Challenge Roth 2007-06-24 09:07:56 09:39:08 09:37:48 3
Challenge Wanaka 2007-01-20 09:38:26 09:52:14 09:37:32 1
IM Hawaii 2006-10-21 09:35:48 09:39:30 09:34:11 8
IM Canada 2006-08-27 09:25:13 09:28:55 09:32:42 1
Challenge Roth 2006-06-24 09:10:27 09:36:32 09:34:08 2
IM Hawaii 2005-10-15 09:28:16 09:31:01 09:32:45 7
Challenge Roth 2005-06-24 09:14:06 09:34:34 09:34:34 1

Results for Eva Dollinger (AUT)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 09:47:09 09:53:45 09:53:45 21

Results for Martina Dogana (ITA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM South Africa 2010-04-25 09:48:13 10:06:54 09:59:51 7
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 10:04:45 09:59:02 09:55:42 23
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 09:50:47 09:51:46 09:51:46 15

Results for Yvette Grice (GBR)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 10:14:49 10:21:43 10:35:28 28
IM Wisconsin 2009-09-13 10:41:24 10:47:10 10:44:55 8
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 10:37:51 10:41:51 10:41:51 44

Results for Nicole Woysch (GER)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 10:51:20 10:58:39 10:58:39 41

Results for Simone Benz (SWI)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Canada 2010-08-29 10:53:21 11:17:28 11:17:28 16

IM New Zealand 2011 – Analyzing the Results

This Saturday, Cameron Brown won IM New Zealand for an amazing 10th time. The women’s race was an unexpected win by Sam Warriner.

image (Photos from news article at Ironman website.)

Here is a closer look at the results.

Conditions

The conditions on race day sounded really bad – there was a lot of rain, probably also pretty cold weather. While these horrible sounding conditions are sometimes actually quite good for fast racing, this was not the case for New Zealand:

  • Course Rating prior to race: 18:39
  • Adjustment for 2011 race: 7:06

This means that New Zealand is usually about a quarter hour faster than IM Hawaii (which has a course rating of 2:50), but this year was about 11:30 minutes slower than usual. This is pretty much in line with the horrible race conditions.

Men’s Results

Rank Name Nation Actual Time Expected Time
1 Cameron Brown NZL 08:31:07 08:29:55
2 Terenzo Bozzone NZL 08:41:54 08:34:29
3 Mathias Hecht SWI 08:45:36 08:39:17
4 Keegan Williams NZL 08:49:34 08:47:01
5 Scott Curry CAN 08:50:44 09:32:03
6 Petr Vabrousek CZE 08:58:30 09:00:44
7 Tuukka Miettinen FIN 09:12:16 09:20:32
8 Gavin Scott NZL 09:15:10 n/a
9 Hiroyuki Nishiuchi JPN 09:25:39 09:15:47
10 James Bowstead NZL 09:39:38 09:42:59
11 Brent Foster NZL 09:46:45 09:33:27
12 Scott McGregor NZL 09:52:32 n/a
13 Kerry Weeks NZL 10:04:24 n/a
14 Rich Munro AUS 10:53:20 09:33:45

Expected time is based on athlete’s rating (prior to race) and race conditions.

Among the top athletes, Cameron was the one that was least affected by the conditions and landed a really convincing win. Petr Vabrousek was also even better than his expected time, but was passed by Scott Curry who really improved on his prior results.

Women’s Results

Rank Name Nation Actual Time Expected Time
1 Samantha Warriner NZL 09:28:24 n/a
2 Mirinda Carfrae AUS 09:31:33 09:00:22
3 Joanna Lawn NZL 09:31:53 09:28:29
4 Kate Bevilaqua AUS 09:40:01 10:06:56
5 Belinda Harper NZL 09:40:33 n/a
6 Kirsten Molloy AUS 09:49:02 n/a
7 Michelle Mitchell AUS 09:50:04 n/a
8 Renee Lane AUS 10:01:59 n/a
9 Maki Nishiuchi JPN 10:16:48 10:19:06
10 Jo Carrel NZL 10:54:31 10:50:28

Expected time is based on athlete’s rating (prior to race) and race conditions.

Previously unrated Sam Warriner pulled off a surprise win. Her first rated race would put her into a Top10 spot in the rankings (but I require a minimum of two rated races). (I think I read somewhere that she has done a previous IM-distance race. Does anyone know where? Please let me know in the comments.)

Top rated Mirinda Carfrae had two flats on the bike, and she just edged out Jo Lawn. Kate Bevilaqua and the the other previously unrated women also performed well, posting solid times and provided some close racing.

Looking ahead to IM New Zealand

Since my last post, I’ve worked a bit more on the results and ratings I have on file for IM New Zealand. Here is the full data!

Male Race Participants

Rank Name Nation Rating Rank
1 Cameron Brown NZL 08:37:51 10
2 Terenzo Bozzone NZL 08:42:44 15
3 Mathias Hecht SWI 08:46:24 25
4 Keegan Williams NZL 08:55:41 39
5 Petr Vabrousek CZE 09:04:30 67
6 Hiroyuki Nishiuchi JPN 09:24:17 126
7 Tuukka Miettinen FIN 09:27:59 139
8 Scott Curry CAN 09:40:52 191
9 Brent Foster NZL 09:43:01 196
10 Rich Munro AUS 09:43:11 197
11 Heinrich Sickl AUT 09:46:31 213
12 James Bowstead NZL 09:52:15 238
13 John Carey AUS 09:59:37 269
14 Kerry Weeks NZL unrated n/a
15 Scott McGregor NZL unrated n/a
16 Gavin Scott NZL unrated n/a
17 Matt Burgess NZL unrated n/a

Female Race Participants

Rank Name Nation Rating Rank
1 Mirinda Carfrae AUS 09:08:06 2
2 Joanna Lawn NZL 09:38:39 11
3 Sarah Pollett AUS 10:03:11 45
4 Britta Martin NZL 10:13:15 58
5 Kate Bevilaqua AUS 10:16:25 66
6 Maki Nishiuchi JPN 10:26:58 85
7 Donna Phelan USA 10:30:50 92
8 Desiree Ficker USA 10:51:22 121
9 Amanda Balding USA 11:22:07 142
10 Jo Carrel NZL unrated n/a
11 Laura-Clare Whelan NZL unrated n/a
12 Michelle Mitchell AUS unrated n/a
13 Samantha Warriner NZL unrated n/a
14 Hannah Lawrence NZL unrated n/a
15 Kirsten Molloy AUS unrated n/a
16 Michelle Bremer NZL unrated n/a
17 Renee Lane AUS unrated n/a
18 Belinda Harper NZL unrated n/a

Results for Cameron Brown (NZL)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 08:34:10 08:42:00 08:37:51 17
IM New Zealand 2010-03-06 08:21:52 08:36:49 08:37:08 1
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 08:53:41 08:49:28 08:37:11 22
IM New Zealand 2009-03-07 08:18:05 08:40:39 08:34:38 1
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 08:26:17 08:28:44 08:33:14 5
IM New Zealand 2008-03-01 08:24:49 08:47:00 08:34:30 1
IM New Zealand 2007-03-03 08:26:33 08:43:20 08:30:16 1
IM Hawaii 2006-10-21 08:25:22 08:29:12 08:25:01 8
IM Hawaii 2005-10-15 08:19:36 08:24:31 08:22:28 2
IM New Zealand 2005-05-03 08:20:15 08:20:15 08:20:15 1

Results for Terenzo Bozzone (NZL)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 08:38:23 08:46:17 08:42:44 20
IM New Zealand 2010-03-06 08:30:00 08:45:12 08:41:20 2
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 08:34:45 08:30:41 08:39:10 11
IM New Zealand 2009-03-07 08:25:37 08:48:31 08:48:31 2

Results for Mathias Hecht (SWI)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 08:37:29 08:33:24 08:46:24 13
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 08:34:02 08:36:32 08:52:05 8
IM Lake Placid 2008-07-20 08:56:33 09:03:31 09:01:17 3
IM Hawaii 2006-10-21 08:54:16 08:58:19 08:58:19 34

Results for Keegan Williams (NZL)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM New Zealand 2010-03-06 08:40:11 08:55:41 08:55:41 4

Results for Petr Vabrousek (CZE)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Florida 2010-11-06 08:29:59 08:55:03 09:04:30 7
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 08:56:26 09:04:37 09:05:16 41
IM Canada 2010-08-29 08:39:16 08:55:00 09:05:19 4
IM Lake Placid 2010-07-25 08:46:33 08:56:37 09:06:17 2
IM Arizona 2009-11-22 08:37:45 09:04:34 09:07:15 10
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 09:23:03 09:18:36 09:07:31 50
IM Lake Placid 2009-07-26 09:10:24 09:07:45 09:06:19 6
IM Arizona 2008-11-23 08:28:09 08:46:39 09:06:09 8
IM Florida 2008-11-01 08:23:00 08:51:26 09:08:26 3
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 09:04:42 09:07:20 09:10:39 33
IM Lake Placid 2008-07-20 08:55:20 09:02:17 09:11:09 2
IM Florida 2007-11-03 08:53:05 09:18:46 09:12:37 21
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 09:42:26 09:49:54 09:11:33 71
IM Arizona 2007-04-15 08:41:59 09:00:01 09:03:30 4
IM Hawaii 2006-10-21 09:10:45 09:14:56 09:04:20 54
IM Lake Placid 2006-07-23 09:03:12 08:56:42 09:01:19 7
IM Arizona 2006-04-09 08:44:54 09:00:48 09:03:03 8
IM Hawaii 2005-10-15 09:12:17 09:17:43 09:04:20 54
IM Arizona 2005-04-09 08:49:46 08:49:46 08:49:46 4

Results for Hiroyuki Nishiuchi (JPN)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 09:11:43 09:20:08 09:24:17 48
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 09:23:13 09:18:46 09:25:39 51
IM Canada 2008-08-24 09:13:56 09:35:20 09:28:20 20
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 09:18:41 09:25:50 09:24:58 48
IM Hawaii 2005-10-15 09:17:17 09:22:46 09:24:20 62
IM New Zealand 2005-05-03 09:26:02 09:26:02 09:26:02 21

Results for Tuukka Miettinen (FIN)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Coeur d’Alene 2009-06-21 09:02:49 09:27:59 09:27:59 5

Results for Scott Curry (CAN)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 09:19:39 09:28:11 09:40:52 52
IM Canada 2010-08-29 08:48:57 09:04:59 09:42:53 9
IM Canada 2009-08-30 09:20:09 09:31:30 09:49:55 16
IM Coeur d’Alene 2009-06-21 09:04:45 09:30:00 09:53:21 7
IM Canada 2008-08-24 08:52:36 09:13:10 09:58:31 11
IM Coeur d’Alene 2008-06-22 09:18:50 09:36:59 10:09:23 8
IM Florida 2007-11-03 10:30:03 11:00:24 10:19:15 51
IM Canada 2007-08-26 11:32:04 11:47:59 10:03:41 30
IM Florida 2006-11-04 08:45:12 09:03:14 09:03:19 5
IM Canada 2006-08-27 08:55:57 09:03:24 09:03:24 5

Results for Brent Foster (NZL)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM New Zealand 2009-03-07 10:15:13 10:43:05 09:43:01 22
IM Arizona 2006-04-09 09:02:10 09:18:35 09:08:39 15
IM Hawaii 2005-10-15 08:54:41 08:59:56 09:03:09 34
IM Coeur d’Alene 2005-06-26 08:52:35 09:06:31 09:06:31 5

Results for Rich Munro (AUS)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM New Zealand 2010-03-06 09:26:18 09:43:11 09:43:11 8

Results for Heinrich Sickl (AUT)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Arizona 2010-11-21 09:01:31 09:27:12 09:46:31 16
IM Arizona 2008-11-23 09:32:21 09:53:11 09:53:28 32
IM Canada 2008-08-24 09:16:53 09:38:24 09:53:34 21
IM Florida 2006-11-04 09:56:35 10:17:04 10:01:19 34
IM Florida 2005-11-05 09:21:53 09:44:23 09:51:37 20
IM Arizona 2005-04-09 09:59:34 09:59:34 09:59:34 25

Results for James Bowstead (NZL)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM New Zealand 2010-03-06 09:02:46 09:18:56 09:52:15 5
IM New Zealand 2008-03-01 10:06:43 10:33:22 10:17:13 22
IM New Zealand 2007-03-03 09:39:03 09:58:14 09:58:14 14

Results for John Carey (AUS)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM New Zealand 2010-03-06 09:42:16 09:59:37 09:59:37 10

Results for Kerry Weeks (NZL)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Scott McGregor (NZL)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Gavin Scott (NZL)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Matt Burgess (NZL)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Mirinda Carfrae (AUS)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 08:58:36 09:06:49 09:08:06 1
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 09:13:59 09:09:37 09:09:37 2

Results for Joanna Lawn (NZL)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 09:43:08 09:52:01 09:38:39 20
IM New Zealand 2010-03-06 09:14:35 09:31:07 09:36:35 1
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 09:34:45 09:30:13 09:37:28 7
IM New Zealand 2009-03-07 09:23:08 09:48:38 09:38:47 2
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 09:45:33 09:48:23 09:36:51 14
IM New Zealand 2008-03-01 09:16:00 09:40:26 09:34:15 1
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 09:26:47 09:34:03 09:32:40 4
IM New Zealand 2007-03-03 09:20:02 09:38:35 09:32:14 1
IM Hawaii 2006-10-21 09:32:48 09:37:09 09:29:40 7
IM Hawaii 2005-10-15 09:14:53 09:20:20 09:25:06 4
IM New Zealand 2005-05-03 09:30:14 09:30:14 09:30:14 1

Results for Sarah Pollett (AUS)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM New Zealand 2010-03-06 09:45:44 10:03:11 10:03:11 4

Results for Britta Martin (NZL)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM New Zealand 2010-03-06 09:47:11 10:04:41 10:13:15 5
IM New Zealand 2009-03-07 09:56:18 10:23:19 10:23:19 8

Results for Kate Bevilaqua (AUS)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 10:19:31 10:28:58 10:16:25 34
IM Lake Placid 2010-07-25 09:53:39 10:04:59 10:13:18 4
IM New Zealand 2010-03-06 10:18:12 10:36:37 10:15:56 7
IM New Zealand 2008-03-01 09:20:06 09:44:43 10:07:09 2
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 10:00:56 10:08:38 10:17:03 25
IM Hawaii 2005-10-15 10:07:42 10:13:41 10:23:00 31
IM Coeur d’Alene 2005-06-26 10:16:40 10:32:48 10:32:48 2

Results for Maki Nishiuchi (JPN)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 10:31:57 10:26:58 10:26:58 35

Results for Donna Phelan (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 10:19:20 10:28:46 10:30:50 33
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 10:30:38 10:33:41 10:33:41 35

Results for Desiree Ficker (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 11:07:48 11:11:02 10:51:22 42
IM Canada 2008-08-24 09:56:09 10:19:11 10:47:42 6
IM Lake Placid 2008-07-20 11:09:30 11:18:12 10:54:05 7
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 10:40:43 10:48:55 10:47:15 47
IM Hawaii 2006-10-21 09:24:02 09:28:19 10:46:42 2
IM Arizona 2006-04-09 09:44:56 10:02:39 11:17:53 4
IM Lake Placid 2005-07-24 14:01:55 14:07:39 12:01:06 20
IM Arizona 2005-04-09 09:48:26 09:48:26 09:48:26 2

Results for Amanda Balding (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Florida 2008-11-01 10:09:38 10:44:06 11:22:07 9
IM Canada 2008-08-24 11:13:05 11:39:05 11:32:53 16
IM New Zealand 2008-03-01 10:53:05 11:21:47 11:30:32 13
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 11:49:33 11:58:38 11:35:14 56
IM Canada 2007-08-26 10:56:14 11:11:20 11:11:20 18

Results for Jo Carrel (NZL)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Laura-Clare Whelan (NZL)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Michelle Mitchell (AUS)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Samantha Warriner (NZL)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Hannah Lawrence (NZL)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Kirsten Molloy (AUS)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Michelle Bremer (NZL)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Renee Lane (AUS)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Belinda Harper (NZL)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

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