Analyzing IM Australia 2011 results

Race Conditions

The reports from IM Australia indicated that the conditions were quite hard, with a heavy wind making the bike and run pretty hard when having to attack it head-on. This is borne out by the race results. Before the race, the course was rated 12:14 (i.e. 12:14 faster than a normalized course). This year’s results resulted in an adjustment of 9:30, so conditions were about 3 minutes slower than usually in Australia.

Male Results

The men’s field was not very deep, but after Craig Alexander’s cancellation a few days before the race the race was wide open. It even seemed possible that Patrick Vernay might be able to continue his winning streak. In the end, however, it was Pete Jacobs who scored his first IM win:

Rank Name Nation Actual Time Expected Time
1 Pete Jacobs AUS 08:29:28 08:37:27
2 Patrick Vernay NCL 08:35:50 08:28:31
3 Jason Shortis AUS 08:46:07 08:47:39
4 Scott Neyedli GBR 08:47:16 08:55:25
5 Courtney Ogden AUS 08:49:56 08:44:37
6 Luke Whitmore   08:54:57 n/a
7 Scott Curry CAN 09:06:31 09:15:25
8 Chris Dmitrieff AUS 09:39:26 09:02:06
9 Adam Holborow AUS 09:40:49 09:12:55

Pete Jacobs continued his streak of strong race results, Patrick Vernay was just a little bit off but managed a 2nd place. 40-year old Jason Shortis almost exactly raced according to predictions and held off Scott Neyedli, whose good time wasn’t quite good enough for the podium.

The most interesting consequence of the race may be the changes to Crowie’s future race plans: He has to finish one Ironman to validate his Hawaii spot, and my prediction is that he will do an early race as soon as he is over his infection. Maybe he’ll be a late addition to IM Texas? (IM China may be good conditions for him – i.e. hot -  but probably “too hard” for what he is trying to achieve.)

Female Results

Rank Name Nation Actual Time Expected Time
1 Caroline Steffen SWI 09:29:54 09:28:45
2 Amelia Pearson AUS 09:38:23 10:03:08
3 Nicole Ward AUS 09:49:23 10:08:16
4 Kirsten Molloy AUS 09:53:55 10:08:46
5 Erin Spitler   10:08:33 n/a

Expected time is based on athlete’s rating (prior to race) and race conditions.

I don’t think there ever was any doubt that Caroline Steffen would win this race as long as she finishes. She seemed to have some issues during the race, but finished right where I expected her. If she can enjoy a good Hawaii prep, she is certainly a contender for a podium finish, even if she seems to be not quite on the same level of Chrissie or Rinnie.

Looking forward to IM Australia (Main Post)

The next race on the IM calendar is Ironman Australia. Here is a look IM Australia and the upcoming race. Some additional details on the athletes can be found in the previous post.

Previous Results

Last year’s IM Australia results on Ironman.com and the race’s site are a bit of a mess, so here is “cleaned up” version of the pro results (at least to the best of what I was able to do looking at race results and press releases – please let me know if there’s anything wring) :

Male Race Results 2010

Rank Name Nation Time
1 Patrick Vernay NCL 08:23:54
2 Scott Neyedli GBR 08:27:58
3 Courtney Ogden AUS 08:35:54
4 Matt White AUS 08:36:39
5 Paul Ambrose AUS 08:38:24
6 Tim Berkel AUS 08:40:46
7 Adam Holborow AUS 08:48:36
8 David Meade AUS 08:56:14
9 Adrian Cominotto   09:28:28
10 Nathan Fitzakerley   09:32:23
11 Joshua Rix   09:58:11

Female Race Results 2010

Rank Name Nation Actual
1 Carrie Lester AUS 09:23:46
2 Rebekah Keat AUS 09:33:10
3 Amelia Pearson AUS 09:46:09
4 Diana Riesler GER 09:57:04
5 Kirsten Molloy AUS 09:59:10
6 Conny Dauben GER 10:46:03
7 Desiree Ficker USA 11:14:54

Course Rating

Overall, IM Australia is about as fast as IM South Africa or IM Canada with a course rating of 12:41 (compared to 2:46 for IM Hawaii as the slowest course and 29:30 for Challenge Roth as the quickest course).

Having added the previous IM Australia results (generously supplied by Athlinks), there were some new results for Chris McCormack (winner in 2005 and 2006) and for Craig Alexander (3rd in 2007). As this was Crowie’s first IM race, he approached it cautiously and posted his slowest IM time. This resulted in Crowie dropping to the 3rd spot in the ratings (Macca still being No. 1). Andreas Raelert picked up one spot and is now 2nd – but he’s got some slower results in IM Germany (which is up for processing before the early July race).

Men’s Predictions

Here’s a look at my predictions for the men’s pro race:

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Craig Alexander AUS 08:09:21 08:24:42 3
2 Patrick Vernay NCL 08:21:53 08:37:38 10
3 Pete Jacobs AUS 08:30:43 08:46:44 24
4 Courtney Ogden AUS 08:37:55 08:54:10 40
5 Jason Shortis AUS 08:40:46 08:57:06 48
6 Scott Neyedli GBR 08:48:25 09:05:00 82
7 Chris Dmitrieff AUS 08:55:01 09:11:48 100
8 Adam Holborow AUS 09:05:42 09:22:49 144
9 Nathan Stewart AUS 09:07:09 09:24:19 151
10 Scott Curry CAN 09:08:11 09:25:23 164
11 Gavin Scott NZL 09:08:23 09:25:35 165

Craig Alexander is the overall favorite, and should be able to post a finishing time close to 8 hours. I’m quite interested in Pete Jacobs performance, he seems to be on a pretty good development (posting the fastest run split in Kona), and if he has a good day, he might be one to give Craig a bit of a scare. Behind the TOP3 there are another 3 good, solid athletes that will try to take a spot on the podium – and I’m sure that 6th ranked Scott Neyedli will try to defend his 2nd spot from last year.

Women’s Predictions

As in the men’s race, there is a clear pre-race favorite:

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Caroline Steffen SWI 09:21:22 09:38:59 12
2 Amelia Pearson AUS 09:55:15 10:13:56 74
3 Nicole Ward AUS 10:00:32 10:19:23 85
4 Kirsten Molloy AUS 10:00:49 10:19:40 86

Looking forward to IM Australia (Athlete Details)

Male Race Participants

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Craig Alexander AUS 08:09:21 08:24:42 3
2 Patrick Vernay NCL 08:21:53 08:37:38 10
3 Pete Jacobs AUS 08:30:43 08:46:44 24
4 Courtney Ogden AUS 08:37:55 08:54:10 40
5 Jason Shortis AUS 08:40:46 08:57:06 48
6 Scott Neyedli GBR 08:48:25 09:05:00 82
7 Chris Dmitrieff AUS 08:55:01 09:11:48 100
8 Adam Holborow AUS 09:05:42 09:22:49 144
9 Nathan Stewart AUS 09:07:09 09:24:19 151
10 Scott Curry CAN 09:08:11 09:25:23 164
11 Gavin Scott NZL 09:08:23 09:25:35 165

Female Race Participants

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Caroline Steffen AUS 09:21:22 09:38:59 12
2 Amelia Pearson AUS 09:55:15 10:13:56 74
3 Nicole Ward AUS 10:00:32 10:19:23 85
4 Kirsten Molloy AUS 10:00:49 10:19:40 86

Results for Craig Alexander (AUS)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 08:16:53 08:23:33 08:24:42 4
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 08:20:21 08:16:48 08:25:07 1
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 08:17:45 08:18:50 08:28:50 1
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 08:19:04 08:23:00 08:34:58 2
IM Australia 2007-04-08 08:38:48 08:47:59 08:47:59 3

Results for Patrick Vernay (NCL)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 08:35:44 08:42:39 08:37:38 19
IM Australia 2010-03-28 08:23:54 08:39:14 08:36:59 1
Challenge Roth 2009-07-12 08:03:46 08:35:51 08:36:40 5
IM Australia 2009-04-05 08:24:53 08:37:07 08:36:47 1
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 08:30:23 08:31:29 08:36:44 6
Challenge Roth 2008-07-13 08:09:34 08:39:31 08:37:36 1
IM Australia 2008-04-06 08:31:32 08:42:51 08:37:14 1
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 08:35:10 08:39:14 08:36:00 10
IM Australia 2007-04-08 08:21:48 08:30:41 08:35:11 1
IM Hawaii 2006-10-21 08:28:13 08:32:17 08:36:33 10
IM Australia 2006-05-11 08:27:28 08:37:00 08:38:14 2
IM Hawaii 2005-10-15 08:31:58 08:35:13 08:38:56 12
IM Australia 2005-04-08 08:42:58 08:42:58 08:42:58 5

Results for Pete Jacobs (AUS)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 08:23:26 08:30:11 08:46:44 9
Challenge Roth 2010-07-18 08:08:56 08:30:40 08:49:05 3
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 08:30:15 08:26:38 08:52:00 8
Challenge Roth 2009-07-12 08:02:01 08:33:59 08:56:08 2
IM Australia 2009-04-05 08:29:03 08:41:23 09:00:15 2
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 09:56:02 09:57:19 09:04:20 70
Challenge Roth 2008-07-13 08:12:53 08:43:02 08:51:06 2
IM New Zealand 2008-03-01 08:47:03 09:09:29 08:53:39 5
Challenge Roth 2007-06-24 08:09:18 08:38:42 08:46:57 3
IM Hawaii 2006-10-21 08:38:12 08:42:20 08:51:58 17
IM Wisconsin 2005-09-11 09:06:47 09:03:31 09:03:31 2

Results for Courtney Ogden (AUS)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
Challenge Wanaka 2011-01-01 09:07:25 08:51:51 08:54:10 2
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 08:42:11 08:49:12 08:54:39 25
IM Coeur d’Alene 2010-06-27 08:38:17 08:59:52 08:56:02 2
IM Australia 2010-03-28 08:35:54 08:51:36 08:54:48 3
IM Canada 2009-08-30 08:44:37 08:52:05 08:56:14 3
IM Canada 2008-08-24 08:47:04 09:05:13 08:59:04 8
IM Canada 2006-08-27 08:47:46 08:50:35 08:50:35 2

Results for Jason Shortis (AUS)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM South Africa 2010-04-25 08:34:52 08:52:03 08:57:06 4
IM Lake Placid 2009-07-26 08:58:09 08:56:51 08:58:05 3
IM Australia 2009-04-05 09:02:22 09:15:30 08:58:21 11
IM Wisconsin 2008-09-07 08:59:14 09:11:35 08:54:03 3
IM Australia 2007-04-08 08:25:33 08:34:30 08:48:54 2
Challenge Roth 2006-06-24 08:30:55 08:56:20 08:53:17 8
IM Australia 2006-05-11 08:36:08 08:45:49 08:52:10 3
IM Hawaii 2005-10-15 08:57:06 09:00:31 08:55:45 38
Challenge Roth 2005-06-24 08:27:25 08:50:44 08:50:44 8

Results for Scott Neyedli (GBR)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Canada 2010-08-29 08:41:36 09:00:20 09:05:00 6
IM Australia 2010-03-28 08:27:58 08:43:25 09:06:24 2
IM New Zealand 2008-03-01 09:00:17 09:23:17 09:15:20 10
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 09:04:48 09:09:06 09:12:17 32
IM South Africa 2007-03-18 09:20:43 09:23:13 09:14:05 7
IM Hawaii 2006-10-21 09:00:01 09:04:20 09:04:20 44

Results for Chris Dmitrieff (AUS)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Australia 2009-04-05 08:53:06 09:06:01 09:11:48 9
IM Australia 2007-04-08 09:17:13 09:27:05 09:14:07 11
IM Hawaii 2006-10-21 09:15:29 09:19:55 09:08:49 61
IM Florida 2005-11-05 08:41:40 09:03:45 09:02:02 4
IM Australia 2005-04-08 09:00:09 09:00:09 09:00:09 9

Results for Adam Holborow (AUS)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Australia 2010-03-28 08:48:36 09:04:41 09:22:49 7
IM Australia 2009-04-05 09:10:23 09:23:43 09:34:18 13
IM Australia 2008-04-06 09:34:03 09:46:45 09:46:45 15

Results for Nathan Stewart (AUS)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Australia 2009-04-05 09:18:17 09:31:49 09:24:19 16
IM Australia 2008-04-06 09:03:27 09:15:29 09:15:29 8

Results for Scott Curry (CAN)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM New Zealand 2011-03-05 08:50:44 09:00:42 09:25:23 5
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 09:19:39 09:27:10 09:29:04 52
IM Canada 2010-08-29 08:48:57 09:07:57 09:29:23 9
IM Canada 2009-08-30 09:20:09 09:28:08 09:33:29 16
IM Coeur d’Alene 2009-06-21 09:04:45 09:25:36 09:51:05 7
IM Canada 2008-08-24 08:52:36 09:10:56 09:56:07 11
IM Coeur d’Alene 2008-06-22 09:18:50 09:38:14 10:05:33 8
IM Florida 2007-11-03 10:30:03 11:01:52 10:12:31 51
IM Canada 2007-08-26 11:32:04 11:49:31 09:57:47 30
IM Florida 2006-11-04 08:45:12 09:03:41 09:12:17 5
IM Canada 2006-08-27 08:55:57 08:58:49 09:17:03 5
IM Wisconsin 2005-09-11 09:41:50 09:38:22 09:38:22 12

Results for Gavin Scott (NZL)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM New Zealand 2011-03-05 09:15:10 09:25:35 09:25:35 8

Results for Caroline Steffen (AUS)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 09:06:00 09:13:20 09:38:59 2
IM South Africa 2010-04-25 09:22:00 09:40:46 09:50:27 2
IM Australia 2009-04-05 09:38:44 09:52:45 09:57:20 3
IM Hawaii 2006-10-21 09:59:22 10:04:09 10:04:09 22

Results for Amelia Pearson (AUS)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Australia 2010-03-28 09:46:09 10:03:59 10:13:56 3
Challenge Roth 2008-07-13 09:41:36 10:17:11 10:20:38 9
IM Australia 2008-04-06 10:10:44 10:24:15 10:24:15 7

Results for Nicole Ward (AUS)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Coeur d’Alene 2010-06-27 09:56:48 10:21:39 10:19:23 6
IM New Zealand 2010-03-06 09:51:05 10:10:08 10:18:41 6
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 10:20:46 10:16:22 10:22:14 33
IM New Zealand 2009-03-07 09:56:04 10:19:04 10:25:57 7
IM Australia 2007-04-08 10:24:18 10:35:21 10:35:21 12

Results for Kirsten Molloy (AUS)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM New Zealand 2011-03-05 09:49:02 10:00:06 10:19:40 6
IM Australia 2010-03-28 09:59:10 10:17:24 10:25:47 5
IM Australia 2009-04-05 10:08:09 10:22:53 10:28:52 7
IM Australia 2008-04-06 10:23:16 10:37:04 10:31:35 9
IM Australia 2007-04-08 10:11:18 10:22:07 10:28:07 7
IM Australia 2006-05-11 10:23:23 10:35:05 10:35:05 10

Analyzing IM South Africa 2011

Chrissie Wellington had another amazing race in South Africa – this is what most triathlon new sites are reporting. Here’s a closer look at the statistical outcome of this race.

Race Adjustment

IM South Africa is usually a medium quick race (course handicap around 10 minutes), but in the last few years has been a bit faster – not sure what has caused this, but there might have been some course changes before the 2008 race. Compared to these years, the 2011 race was typical with an adjustment of 17:27. (To recap, the adjustment is the average difference between the participant’s ratings and their actual race time.) Conditions have been reported to be quite nice, but maybe a bit hot during the run. This may have contributed to quite a few big names dropping out, for example the pre-race favorite Marino Vanhoenacker, Luke Bell, Rutger Beke, Jason Shortis, Michael Göhner, Bert Jammaer and Natascha Badmann. Tom Lowe didn’t even start the race, but I haven’t heard anything of why that was the case.

Female Results

As noted above, the big result this weekend was Chrissie Wellington’s quick time, so I’ll start with the females:

Rank Name Nation Actual Time Expected Time
1 Chrissie Wellington GBR 08:33:56 08:40:32
2 Rachel Joyce GBR 09:08:23 09:23:52
3 Diana Riesler GER 09:20:37 n/a
4 Silvia Felt GER 09:24:31 n/a
5 Amanda Stevens USA 09:25:50 n/a
6 Belinda Granger AUS 09:28:59 09:28:29
7 Simone Benz SWI 09:31:21 10:55:35
8 Martina Dogana ITA 09:47:47 09:40:28
9 Yvette Grice GBR 09:59:28 10:14:56
10 Eva Dollinger AUT 10:00:24 09:34:34
11 Claire Horner SAF 10:11:55 10:47:25
12 Helen Buley SAF 10:26:29 10:17:14
13 Caroline Koll SAF 10:37:39 10:17:59

Expected time is based on athlete’s rating (prior to race) and race conditions.

Chrissie posted a quicker time than her 8:36 at IM Arizona time from last November. (I find it a bit silly to call it an “IM world record” knowing that she posted an 8:19 in Roth 2010.)  Looking at the statistics, the TOP4 best results ever are from Chrissie – and all on different courses!

Rank Name Adjusted Result Actual Result Race
1 Wellington, Chrissie 08:40:26 08:19:13 Challenge Roth on 2010-07-18
2 Wellington, Chrissie 08:48:59 08:54:02 IM Hawaii on 2009-10-10
3 Wellington, Chrissie 08:50:32 08:33:56 IM South Africa on 2011-04-10
4 Wellington, Chrissie 09:00:42 08:36:13 IM Arizona on 2010-11-21

Simply amazing – for me that’s about as impressive as the fact that Chrissie posted the overall best run split. The sky seems to be the limit for her.

Behind Chrissie, Rachel Joyce had another great race, but her excellent 9:03 – twenty minutes quicker than expected – pales in comparison with Chrissie’s performance. With Natascha not finishing, I predicted Belinda Granger to round out the TOP3, but even with her solid 9:28 (almost exactly as predicted) it was a trio of three unrated pros coming in before her and Diana Riesler getting the third spot.

Male Results

On the male side, there was quite a bit back and forth at the top of the race, and finally home favorite Raynard Tissink was able to defend his title from last year. All the athletes that were much better rated than him dropped out (most notably Marino Vanhoenacker who was right in the mix), but it was a hard-fought win and he had to post a new course record of 8:05, more than 20 minutes quicker than expected. A really great performance from such an established athlete!

Rank Name Nation Actual Time Expected Time
1 Raynard Tissink SAF 08:05:36 08:28:38
2 Andreas Bocherer GER 08:08:36 09:12:29
3 James Cunnama ZAF 08:13:18 08:47:47
4 Daniel Fontana ITA 08:18:51 08:33:00
5 Cyril Viennot FRA 08:30:42 n/a
6 Eduardo Sturla ARG 08:32:52 08:27:20
7 Uwe Widmann GER 08:33:39 08:30:42
8 Petr Vabrousek CZE 08:40:36 08:46:06
9 Trevor Delsaut FRA 08:41:57 n/a
10 Balazs Csoke HUN 08:43:06 n/a
11 Dominik Berger AUT 08:52:24 n/a
12 Kent Horner SAF 08:58:39 09:18:39
13 Toby Radcliffe GBR 09:01:17 09:17:13
14 Mike Schifferle SWI 09:04:02 09:07:13
15 Sergio Marques PRT 09:09:30 08:50:00
16 Craig Twigg GBR 09:10:01 n/a
17 Gilad Rotem ISR 09:12:06 n/a
18 Erik-Simon Strijk NDL 09:16:32 n/a
19 Bryn Freeman SAF 09:23:29 09:27:21
20 Erich Felbabel FRA 09:23:36 n/a
21 Marcel Bischof GER 09:32:47 n/a
22 Heinrich Sickl AUT 10:08:14 09:28:07
23 Freddy Lampret SAF 10:46:11 09:38:47

Expected time is based on athlete’s rating (prior to race) and race conditions. 

After Raynard, my young countryman Andy Böcherer had a great result and came in second – more than one hour quicker than expected! (Then again, I just had one race in my database for him, probably one of his slower results.) Another South African, James Cunnama, managed to snag the last spot on the podium, he was also more than half an hour quicker than expected. A lot of people had told me that Cunnama was underrated before the race, so I’ll have a look at my methodology before my next round of predictions for IM Australia …

Looking forward to IM South Africa (Main Post)

The next race on the IM calendar is coming up soon: IM South Africa will be held on April 10th. I’ve put together a preview for this race, based on the pro list (from early March) from their website at http://www.triangle.cc/event/default.asp?micrositeid=2. This list is almost a month old, so some changes are to be expected.

The Course

IM South Africa is medium fast race  with a course rating of 10:31. It is 8 1/2 minutes faster than IM Hawaii (course rating of 1:53), but more than 15 minutes slower than Challenge Roth (course rating of 27:41). The last few years, however, were pretty quick (race handicaps of 17 to 22 minutes), so if the conditions are right, the race can be fast (comparable to typical results at IM Arizona).

The Male Field

Here are the predictions for the male pros (for more infos, see my IM South Africa details):

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Marino Vanhoenacker BEL 08:17:19 08:33:38 8
2 Tom Lowe GBR 08:18:43 08:35:04 9
3 Michael Goehner GER 08:24:32 08:41:05 15
4 Eduardo Sturla ARG 08:27:37 08:44:16 21
5 Rutger Beke BEL 08:27:49 08:44:28 22
6 Raynard Tissink SAF 08:28:56 08:45:37 23
7 Uwe Widmann GER 08:31:00 08:47:45 29
8 Swen Sundberg GER 08:39:35 08:56:37 47
9 Jason Shortis AUS 08:39:38 08:56:40 48
10 Petr Vabrousek CZE 08:46:24 09:03:40 74
11 James Cunnama ZAF 08:48:05 09:05:24 81
12 Luke Bell AUS 08:48:52 09:06:13 84
13 Sergio Marques PRT 08:50:18 09:07:41 87
14 Bert Jammaer BEL 08:59:28 09:17:10 110
15 Patrick Wallimann SWI 09:01:03 09:18:48 123
16 Mike Schifferle SWI 09:07:32 09:25:29 161
17 Andreas Bocherer GER 09:12:47 09:30:55 184
18 Toby Radcliffe GBR 09:17:32 09:35:49 206
19 Heinrich Sickl AUT 09:28:26 09:47:05 253

Some interesting things:

  • it’ll be interesting to see the race between the established Marino Vanhoenacker (with excellent results over the last 6 seasons) and the newcomer Tom Lowe (whose single results from IM Arizona last November would be good enough for a spot on the TOP 10).
  • If both of them race, look for the pair of Rutger Beke and Rayard Tissink. Rutger hasn’t had too many good IM results lately, while Raynard has had a great IM Hawaii and is always racing strong in his home race. (However, Raynard is rumored to consider dropping out of the race.)

The Female Pro Field

I’ve got some predictions for the women’s field as well (again, for some previous race results, see my IM South Africa details post):

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Chrissie Wellington GBR 08:40:49 08:57:54 1
2 Natascha Badmann SWI 09:11:38 09:29:43 5
3 Rachel Joyce GBR 09:24:11 09:42:41 16
4 Belinda Granger AUS 09:28:48 09:47:27 23
5 Eva Dollinger AUT 09:34:54 09:53:45 35
6 Martina Dogana ITA 09:40:48 09:59:51 43
7 Yvette Grice GBR 10:15:17 10:35:28 122
8 Nicole Woysch GER 10:37:44 10:58:39 153
9 Simone Benz SWI 10:55:57 11:17:28 171

Some things of note here:

  • The real question for the women’s race is probably not if Chrissie is going to win but how far up in the men’s field she’s going to end up. Based on the ratings, I’m calling a TOP 10 finish, but not much higher up if the people from the pro list actually show up.
  • I’m quite interested in how Natascha Badmann is going to perform: Her last posted race is more than four years ago, and she’s had some up and down years in between. If she has a solid race, she should be able to finish runner-up.
  • However, Rachel Joyce and Belinda Granger are solid racers that are not too far off – and they will try to make the race for TOP3 interesting.

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