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KPR Observer – Preview

The last few days I’ve been busy setting up the 2015 KPR Observer. I still have a few more todos on my list, in the meantime you can still benefit from the reduced pre-order price of 24$!

In order to give you a better idea of the value that I’ll provide with the KPR Observer updates during the season, here’s a look at two documents with different views on the KPR Rankings: the Graphical View for an overview, and the KPR Table for all the details. Together with my commentary on recent developments and a look at the upcoming races, they make following the KPR very easy and will safe you a ton of time!

Graphical View

The graphical view shows a lot of information on a single page. Here is an example of the Men’s Standing in early July (of course, there is a similar page for women’s qualifying):

KPR Men 20140707

Here’s what you can see on this page:

  • Automatic Qualifiers (blue)
    All the „potential“ Automatic Qualifiers are listed, with my assessment of whether they’ll validate and take their slot.
  • Projected Cutoff
    Based on my projections, I give a projection for the July cutoff (and later for the August cutoff as well).
  • Safe (green)
    Based on the cutoff, the athletes that have a safe Kona slot are listed. Some names are in UPPERCASE, these are new in the category. (For example, Jan Frodeno had just finished third in Frankfurt, thereby fulfilling the requirement of racing at least one IM and also scoring enough points.)
  • Bubble (yellow)
    Athletes that are within a few hundred points of the projected cutoff. If they score a couple hundred more points, they should be able to move into safe territory, but without any points might  come up just short. (In fact, all athletes on the bubble made it to Kona after scoring some more points.)
  • Close (orange)
    These athletes are within a thousand points of the cutoff, but do not have enough points for a slot at this point.
  • Potential (brown)
    These athletes are even further back, but are on the start list for one of the remaining IMs, and could secure a slot with a good performance. (For example, Kyle Buckingham got a slot by winning IM Lake Placid.)
  • Not interested (red)
    These athletes may be placed well in the rankings, but have said that they are not interested in a Kona slot. Therefore, they probably won’t validate their slot or further improve their score.

On the bottom there is some background information how far the season has progressed (date, last race, number of completed IMs etc.).

KPR Table

The KPR Table shows similar information, but goes into much more details. Again, here is a look at the men’s standings in early July:

KPRTable

The Table is delivered as Excel spreadsheets (one for the men and one for the women, plus another sheet showing the Points schemes). Some details on the columns in this sheet:

  • Rank
    For the ranking, I am not counting Automatic Qualifiers (marked “AQ”) and those not interested in a slot (denoted by a “-“), so #40 (for the men) will actually be the last one in a position to receive a July slot.
  • Validated
    This column indicates whether an athlete has already fulfilled the minimum requirement of finishing at least on IM outside of Kona to be eligible for a Kona slot.
  • Races
    In this column I show how many races an athlete already has on his scorecard and which score would drop off the scorecard once another good result is added.
  • Kona
    This is my assessment of the athlete’s chances to get a Kona slot, going from a green up arrow showing a safe slot down to a red down arrow meaning that a Kona slot is very unlikely.
  • Comments
    Some more information about the athlete, e.g. known race plans.
  • Races1-5, Points1-5
    Shows where the athlete scored how many points (only those races that are part of the athlete’s total).

If you purchase the KPR Observer, you’ll receive this information at least six times (and more likely, ten times) as the season progresses, therefore aways staying up to date on recent developments. You still have a few day left to benefit from it’s reduced pre-release price of 24$ at https://gum.co/2015KPR.

Ironman Arizona 2014 (Nov 16th) – Predictions

Arizona

Updates

Since initially publishing my predictions, there have been a few changes:

  • Eva Wutti announced she won’t be racing.
  • Matt Russell plans to just do the swim/bike (“most likely” were his words) and properly prepare for Cozumel.
  • After finishing 3rd in Florida, Ashley Clifford won’t be racing Arizona.
  • After winning Florida, Lionel Sanders also ended his season.

Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2005 Faris Al-Sultan (GER) 08:25:42 Kate Major (AUS) 09:44:02
2006 Michael Lovato (USA) 08:20:56 Michellie Jones (AUS) 09:12:53
2007 Rutger Beke (BEL) 08:21:14 Heather Gollnick (USA) 09:36:40
2008 Jozsef Major (HUN) 08:34:19 Erika Csomor (HUN) 09:14:49
2008 Andreas Raelert (GER) 08:14:16 Heleen Bij De Vaate (NED) 09:21:06
2009 Jordan Rapp (USA) 08:13:35 Samantha McGlone (CAN) 09:09:19
2010 Timo Bracht (GER) 08:07:16 Chrissie Wellington (GBR) 08:36:13
2011 Eneko Llanos (ESP) 07:59:38 Leanda Cave (GBR) 08:49:00
2012 Nils Frommhold (GER) 08:03:13 Linsey Corbin (USA) 09:01:41
2013 Victor Del Corral (ESP) 08:02:00 Julia Gajer (GER) 08:52:49

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Victor Del Corral ESP 00:54:03 04:20:11 02:43:58 08:02:00
2 Jordan Rapp USA 00:52:45 04:14:44 02:54:54 08:06:13
3 Jens Petersen-Bach DEN 00:52:10 04:22:23 02:49:39 08:07:53

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Julia Gajer GER 00:53:24 04:51:46 03:02:02 08:52:49
2 Meredith Kessler USA 00:50:14 04:45:33 03:16:05 08:55:47
3 Michelle Vesterby DEN 00:53:30 04:42:57 03:16:43 08:57:24

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 07:59:38 Eneko Llanos 2011-11-19
Swim overall 00:46:02 Kieran Doe 2008-11-23
Bike overall 04:14:44 Jordan Rapp 2013-11-17
Run overall 02:43:30 Victor Zyemtsev 2011-11-19
Total female 08:36:13 Chrissie Wellington 2010-11-21
Swim female 00:48:13 Leanda Cave 2008-11-23
Bike female 04:42:57 Michelle Vesterby 2013-11-17
Run female 02:52:56 Chrissie Wellington 2010-11-21

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Arizona is 14:09.

Race Adjustments for IM Arizona

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Athletes Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2006 05:53 -00:36 04:34 -00:24 29 05:53 -00:36 04:34 -00:24
2007 02:55 -00:35 01:13 01:35 26 04:24 -00:36 02:53 00:36
2008 04:58 00:04 04:21 -00:51 38 04:35 -00:22 03:22 00:07
2008 10:55 01:10 09:07 01:58 51 06:10 00:01 04:49 00:35
2009 18:02 -01:00 12:13 02:33 37 08:33 -00:12 06:17 00:58
2010 13:36 -00:22 09:06 01:47 46 09:23 -00:13 06:46 01:06
2011 23:10 -00:56 15:27 02:15 55 11:21 -00:19 08:00 01:16
2012 18:17 -01:58 16:28 02:29 50 12:13 -00:32 09:04 01:25
2013 29:35 -00:21 19:57 03:50 58 14:09 -00:31 10:16 01:41

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Arizona has 2000 KPR points for the winner. It has a total prize purse of 75k$.

Male Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Overall
1 6 Paul Matthews AUS 08:13:20 08:25:44 00:46:50 04:29:08 02:52:21 6
2 1 Jordan Rapp USA 08:18:13 08:31:51 00:52:46 04:23:29 02:56:59 15
3 3 Timothy O’Donnell USA 08:24:13 08:48:18 00:47:41 04:31:28 03:00:04 52
4 14 Clemente Alonso McKernan ESP 08:24:52 08:34:29 00:48:47 04:37:51 02:53:14 18
5 2 Victor Zyemtsev USA 08:27:43 08:41:57 00:51:05 04:39:37 02:52:01 35
6 33 Jens Petersen-Bach DEN 08:28:07 08:52:24 00:52:27 04:37:03 02:53:37 65
7 36 Horst Reichel GER 08:28:30 08:55:52 00:49:17 04:34:12 03:00:00 84
8 11 Pedro Gomes POR 08:29:57 08:53:26 00:50:25 04:33:53 03:00:39 71
9 4 Maik Twelsiek GER 08:30:11 08:41:16 00:50:37 04:25:52 03:08:42 33
10 49 Stephan Vuckovic GER 08:30:23 08:48:02 00:50:27 04:37:35 02:57:21 (52)
11 5 Kyle Buckingham ZAF 08:31:54 08:42:30 00:50:50 04:32:48 03:03:16 37
12 22 Marc Duelsen GER 08:32:57 09:02:49 00:53:20 04:33:50 03:00:47 (111)
13 24 Markus Fachbach GER 08:33:28 08:44:11 00:50:38 04:36:58 03:00:51 44
14 40 Matthew Russell USA 08:36:50 08:56:25 00:59:35 04:33:53 02:58:22 90
15 39 Michael Ruenz GER 08:36:53 08:58:00 00:54:12 04:42:51 02:54:50 (97)
16 13 Christophe Bastie FRA 08:42:35 08:59:24 00:54:20 04:34:22 03:08:53 100
17 12 Thomas Gerlach USA 08:44:49 09:04:58 00:54:34 04:34:30 03:10:45 119
18 10 Joe Umphenour USA 08:45:07 09:02:44 00:48:24 04:41:58 03:09:45 110
19 43 Jonathan Shearon USA 08:46:09 09:15:55 00:54:34 04:38:50 03:07:46 165
20 51 Nicholas Ward Munoz GBR 08:46:22 09:08:39 00:55:06 04:47:54 02:58:21 137
21 19 Mike Caiazzo USA 08:48:35 08:57:26 00:56:53 04:50:00 02:56:43 (96)
22 20 Scott Defilippis USA 08:50:50 09:15:55 00:56:47 04:50:56 02:58:07 165
23 41 Mike Schifferle SUI 08:53:17 09:11:40 01:01:20 04:42:08 03:04:49 149
24 28 Jared Milam USA 08:54:17 09:27:03 00:55:03 04:48:40 03:05:34 215
25 18 Chris Boudreaux USA 08:54:21 09:18:54 00:52:45 04:44:59 03:11:38 183
26 16 Blake Becker USA 08:58:00 09:36:47 00:53:17 04:47:38 03:12:04 255
27 25 Derek Garcia USA 08:58:21 09:17:21 00:54:18 04:40:24 03:18:39 175
28 56 Steven Zawaski USA 08:58:52 09:24:29 00:58:23 04:50:18 03:05:11 (207)
29 26 Chad Holderbaum USA 08:59:04 09:16:56 00:55:41 04:45:53 03:12:30 172
30 35 Ryan Rau USA 09:02:23 09:30:29 00:57:43 04:58:15 03:01:25 226
31 45 Anthony Toth CAN 09:03:03 09:34:19 00:58:08 04:51:14 03:08:41 242
32 17 Patrick Bless GER 09:03:45 09:17:51 00:55:51 04:56:07 03:06:48 (179)
33 46 Edo Van der Meer NED 09:04:31 09:38:45 00:48:39 04:41:09 03:29:42 (262)
34 52 Patrick Wheeler USA 09:06:25 09:29:48 00:57:40 04:56:29 03:07:17 225
35 23 Lewis Elliot USA 09:07:08 09:34:59 00:54:32 04:42:09 03:25:27 246
36 27 Jim Lamastra USA 09:11:36 09:41:22 00:53:09 04:46:07 03:27:20 273
37 44 Oliver Simon GBR 09:11:43 09:39:28 00:49:33 04:45:20 03:31:50 264
38 42 Patrick Schuster USA 09:13:25 09:37:02 01:04:15 04:47:05 03:17:05 257
39 53 Richard Whitfield GBR 09:13:42 09:40:02 00:58:23 04:51:25 03:18:54 (267)
40 48 Jesse Vondracek USA 09:16:36 09:43:47 00:56:25 04:59:23 03:15:47 286
41 47 Hendrik-Jan Verhaegen BEL 09:16:59 09:44:02 00:58:10 04:52:29 03:21:20 (288)
42 32 Devon Palmer USA 09:22:36 09:46:10 00:53:27 04:44:15 03:39:54 293
43 55 Dantley Young USA 09:34:19 10:18:47 01:03:59 04:58:44 03:26:36 (394)
44 50 Robbie Wade IRL 09:54:03 10:31:39 00:59:28 05:01:37 03:47:58 (430)
45 21 Vincent Depuiset FRA 09:55:40 10:18:01 01:10:45 05:11:12 03:28:43 (391)
46 54 Richard Wygand BRA 10:16:05 10:46:59 01:07:13 05:15:25 03:48:27 448
47 29 Jimi Minnema USA 10:20:19 10:53:02 01:04:42 05:20:41 03:49:56 (452)
48 31 Marek Nemcik SVK 11:25:22 12:11:24 01:12:05 05:39:27 04:28:51 468
7 Brent McMahon CAN n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
8 David Kahn USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
9 Lionel Sanders CAN n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
15 Randy Arriola USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
30 CW Moran USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
34 Botond Racz HUN n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
37 Eric Reid USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
38 Dominic Rohan-Gates GBR n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Overall
1 65 Meredith Kessler USA 09:09:19 09:34:13 00:50:09 04:57:30 03:16:40 22
2 68 Eva Wutti AUT 09:11:13 09:27:12 00:58:37 04:55:30 03:12:07 12
3 93 Amanda Stevens USA 09:21:16 09:41:59 00:50:01 05:01:28 03:24:47 35
4 67 Lisa Huetthaler AUT 09:21:26 09:46:25 00:56:39 04:57:10 03:22:37 (47)
5 79 Danielle Kehoe USA 09:25:51 10:00:39 01:03:51 05:04:14 03:12:45 77
6 84 Carrie Lester AUS 09:32:20 09:42:19 00:56:34 05:06:45 03:24:00 38
7 72 Kathleen Calkins USA 09:32:56 09:54:04 00:58:02 05:10:09 03:19:46 57
8 73 Ashley Clifford USA 09:35:15 09:47:47 00:55:29 05:23:21 03:11:25 48
9 66 Uli Bromme USA 09:35:33 09:59:36 01:03:14 05:05:56 03:21:24 74
10 70 Katy Blakemore USA 09:41:46 09:57:27 00:53:44 05:23:09 03:19:52 65
11 85 Mackenzie Madison USA 09:41:59 10:03:31 01:02:15 05:12:25 03:22:20 81
12 76 Malaika Homo USA 09:43:14 10:07:12 00:54:18 05:14:18 03:29:38 86
13 82 Carolin Lehrieder GER 09:44:51 10:18:47 00:58:32 05:24:23 03:16:55 (106)
14 74 Sarah Graves USA 09:51:50 10:19:58 01:12:08 05:16:10 03:18:32 (109)
15 75 Christine Hammond USA 09:53:42 10:11:39 00:55:41 05:18:48 03:34:13 95
16 91 Jessica Smith USA 09:56:40 10:25:34 00:55:05 05:17:00 03:39:36 120
17 92 Jacqui Gordon USA 10:02:50 10:18:52 01:01:32 05:17:53 03:38:26 106
18 88 Olesya Prystayko UKR 10:05:29 10:24:29 01:02:30 05:20:18 03:37:41 117
19 86 Katya Meyers USA 10:06:40 10:24:34 01:09:07 05:14:11 03:38:22 (118)
20 77 Christina Jackson USA 10:06:44 10:35:35 00:54:58 05:26:47 03:39:59 (140)
21 71 Kate Bruck USA 10:08:43 10:40:50 01:07:22 05:31:20 03:25:01 (146)
22 81 Angela Kuehnlein GER 10:27:08 10:56:57 01:04:15 05:24:43 03:53:10 (157)
23 83 Jennifer Lentzke CAN 10:40:35 11:02:13 01:14:17 05:33:38 03:47:40 (160)
24 87 Jenni Plane USA 12:36:30 13:04:37 01:05:17 06:29:51 04:56:21 (166)
69 Heather Jackson USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
78 Sarah Jarvis USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
80 Corrie Kristick USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
89 Maggie Rusch USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
90 Laura Siddall GBR n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

There are two main groups contending for the Arizona win: On the one hand you have athletes such as Jordan Rapp that have focused on this race, on the other hand there athletes that have raced in Kona and are looking for more points (e.g. Paul Matthews) or redemption for a sub-par race (e.g. Tim O’Donnell):

  • Paul Matthews: 26% (3-1)
  • Jordan Rapp: 20% (4-1)
  • Timothy O’Donnell: 19% (4-1)
  • Horst Reichel: 17% (5-1)
  • Clemente Alonso McKernan: 7% (14-1)
  • Victor Zyemtsev: 4% (25-1)
  • Jens Petersen-Bach: 3% (32-1)
  • Kyle Buckingham: 2% (49-1)
There are also some „new“ Ironman athletes: Lionel Sanders has just won in the no-swim Florida (not sure if he’ll back up he won’t be starting in Arizona), and Brent McMahon will race his first IM.

Female Race Participants

On the women’s side, Meredith Kessler is the clear favorite – hopefully her Kona troubles (DNF after vomiting on the bike) won’t occur again. Eva Wutti is a fast IM athlete but she’s either on (going sub-9) or off (DNF). (Eva announced she won’t be starting.) Still, Eva is was probably the only athlete that can challenge MBK for the win she’s been looking for in the last years. (Meredith has been 4-3-2-2 the last four years – she seems to be due for an Arizona win!)

  • Meredith Kessler: 56% (1-1)
  • Eva Wutti: 23% (3-1)
  • Amanda Stevens: 10% (9-1)
  • Danielle Kehoe: 5% (21-1)
  • Lisa Huetthaler: 2% (50-1)
  • Carrie Lester: 2% (64-1)

Heather Jackson is on the start list as well – she was aiming for Kona this year but had to postpone her IM debut (originally planned for CdA in the June) with injury problems. Hopefully she can have her debut IM in 2014 after all!

Ironman Florida 2014 – Analyzing Results

Race Conditions

TimeTrialStart

On race day, there were currents and riptides that did not allow for a safe swim. After the cancellation, the race was started in a time trial fashion, with athletes starting every 30 seconds (see photo on right, photo credit Ironman.com).

Of course, the times from this year are not really comparable to a „normal“ Ironman race with a swim. Therefore, I can’t be using the Florida results in my ratings. However, I was able to do a rough comparison of the raw bike and run times to expected times before the race, allowing my to assess how fast the course was and if an athlete had a good race. This analysis also shows that the bike was relatively slow for Florida (adjustment of 7:32 compared to a bike rating of 15:06). This was probably caused by the cold and windy conditions. The run was pretty quick for Florida, but still a bit slower than last year’s ideal racing conditions.

Male Race Results

Lionel Sanders was racing his first full distance race. After the cancellation of the swim he was the clear favorite, quickly took control of the race and built a huge lead into T2. On the run, he even increased his lead, delivering the fastest bike and faster run, winning by almost 20 minutes. Behind Lionel, Tom Lowe had a good start to the 2014 season finishing second, and Maxim Kriat took the last spot on the podium. Ben Hoffman validated his Kona slot with a 10th place.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected
1 Lionel Sanders CAN 04:12:46 02:44:12 06:58:46 n/a
2 Tom Lowe GBR 04:25:07 02:50:35 07:17:53 -09:00
3 Maxim Kriat UKR 04:33:28 02:48:52 07:24:50 -02:55
4 Joerie Vansteelant BEL 04:30:11 02:56:43 07:29:31 -31:31
5 Pedro Gomes POR 04:35:03 02:52:33 07:29:45 -10:54
6 Per Bittner GER 04:36:29 02:55:16 07:33:47 -07:33
7 David Naesvik SWE 04:36:35 03:07:25 07:46:30 -11:51
8 Artem Parienko RUS 04:53:02 02:56:15 07:51:19 n/a
9 Karl-Johan Danielsson SWE 04:40:02 03:13:10 07:55:34 -08:23
10 Ben Hoffman USA 04:37:02 03:17:25 07:57:13 39:11
11 Frederic Limousin FRA 04:51:00 03:07:56 08:01:59 n/a
12 Peter Kotland CZE 04:46:49 03:21:23 08:12:41 -37:08
13 Aubrey Aldy USA 05:09:14 03:04:39 08:16:08 -25:36
14 Rod De Kanel FRA 04:51:46 03:27:13 08:24:06 n/a
15 Dantley Young USA 05:24:23 02:58:56 08:29:06 -27:15
16 Vincent Depuiset FRA 05:05:43 03:19:55 08:29:37 -25:56
17 Brent Mcburney USA 05:12:59 03:18:15 08:33:18 -1:02:29
18 Philip Mosley GBR 04:54:41 03:41:57 08:39:01 n/a
19 Ludovic Le Guellec FRA 05:26:40 03:20:26 08:50:21 -02:53
20 Roman Krutina CZE 05:01:28 04:00:15 09:05:30 08:04
21 Luan Ortiz Silva BRA 05:35:10 03:34:26 09:12:06 n/a
Marek Nemcik SVK 05:54:22 DNF
Ed Donner USA 05:02:42 DNF
Alberto Casadei ITA 05:01:00 DNF
Raymond Botelho USA 04:39:36 DNF

Female Race Results

The result of the female race was also evident early on, with Yvonne Van Vlerken posting the fastest bike and run and winning by 35 minutes! Second across the line was Ashley Clifford, but in the time trial start she had started before Camilla Lindholm and her final time was 27 seconds slower, so Camilla ended up second and Ashley was third.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected
1 Yvonne Van Vlerken NED 04:55:57 03:03:06 08:01:47 -01:33
2 Camilla Lindholm SWE 05:14:05 03:20:03 08:36:28 -04:30
3 Ashley Clifford USA 05:24:11 03:09:51 08:36:55 12:49
4 Rachel Jastrebsky USA 05:17:53 03:19:34 08:39:43 -33:38
5 Michelle Bozarth USA 05:30:25 03:16:44 08:50:13 n/a
6 Leslie Lamacchia USA 05:38:59 03:29:00 09:10:59 -19:33
7 Tami Ritchie USA 05:48:17 03:21:46 09:13:29 -09:57
8 Dee Atkins USA 05:35:54 03:52:56 09:32:32 n/a
9 Carla Moreno BRA 05:58:43 03:48:58 09:53:58 35:43
Kristin Lie NOR 08:32:00 DNF

Ironman Fortaleza 2014 (Nov 9th) – Predictions

Fortaleza

This is the first race on this course. Therefore, there are no previous results and course ratings. The expected times are based on a „neutral“ course, but usually courses are quite a bit faster (my guess is in the area of 10 to 15 minutes).

Updates

There are a few updates to the published start list that the athletes have announced:

  • Brandon Marsh has ended his 2014 season.
  • Tim O’Donnell will probably start in Arizona.
  • Mirinda Carfrae has announced she will not start in Fortalezza this year.
  • Leanda Cave has ended her season with a severe cold.

(Nov 8th) After registration, a few more athletes won’t be starting:

  • Vanessa Gianini
  • Hillary Biscay
  • Igor Amorelli
  • Camilla Lindholm (still on the list, but won’t be starting after placing 2nd in Florida)

There are also two additions:

  • Bib #46 – Daniel Fontana (ITA) – expected at 8:46:37
  • Bib #47 – Antonio Marcos de Souza (BRA)

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Fortaleza has 2000 KPR points for the winner. It has a total prize purse of 75k$.

Male Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Overall
1 41 Eneko Llanos ESP 08:27:43 08:28:12 00:48:40 04:38:42 02:55:21 10
2 22 Timothy O’Donnell USA 08:39:09 08:48:33 00:47:43 04:44:19 03:02:07 52
3 30 Igor Amorelli BRA 08:49:06 08:45:08 00:48:23 04:48:27 03:07:16 46
4 34 Brandon Marsh USA 08:49:59 08:51:28 00:48:04 04:51:00 03:05:55 62
5 36 Stefan Schmid GER 08:53:49 08:50:30 00:54:07 04:51:31 03:03:11 56
6 27 Balazs Csoke HUN 09:04:43 09:10:09 00:48:40 04:53:50 03:17:13 143
7 35 Petr Vabrousek CZE 09:04:47 09:01:04 00:56:18 04:56:59 03:06:31 107
8 40 Guilherme Manocchio BRA 09:05:18 09:08:11 00:50:05 05:03:55 03:06:17 136
9 24 Andres Castillo COL 09:10:40 09:15:58 00:48:00 04:55:13 03:22:28 170
10 25 Patrick Jaberg SUI 09:11:21 09:14:01 00:54:28 04:58:59 03:12:53 159
11 39 Bryan Rhodes NZL 09:11:56 09:29:05 00:48:24 04:55:22 03:23:09 (224)
12 32 Thiago Vinhal BRA 09:13:35 09:14:34 00:50:02 05:13:43 03:04:50 163
13 38 Frank Silvestrin BRA 09:15:46 09:21:43 00:50:19 05:06:54 03:13:32 197
14 29 Raul Furtado BRA 09:16:22 09:32:45 00:53:20 04:53:11 03:24:51 238
15 31 Blake Becker USA 09:17:28 09:36:49 00:53:38 05:02:56 03:15:55 258
16 26 Luiz Francisco Ferreira BRA 09:18:32 09:20:16 00:47:47 05:07:56 03:17:50 190
17 45 Ciro Violin BRA 09:18:32 09:27:33 00:52:00 05:03:34 03:17:59 (222)
18 44 Fabio Carvalho BRA 09:21:10 09:23:24 00:48:54 05:13:44 03:13:32 (206)
19 28 Felipe De Oliveira Manente BRA 09:24:00 09:40:31 00:53:48 05:05:32 03:19:41 (272)
20 23 Raphael Galvao Menezes dos santos BRA 09:28:10 09:39:35 00:52:26 05:16:13 03:14:30 (270)
21 37 Henrik Oftedal NOR 09:32:53 09:35:37 01:03:11 04:59:39 03:25:02 (252)
22 33 Jordan Bryden CAN 09:36:29 09:43:32 00:50:05 05:15:50 03:25:34 287
21 Alexandre Aguiar Moura BRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
42 Ivan Risti ITA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Overall
1 1 Mirinda Carfrae AUS 09:07:11 09:07:03 00:55:32 05:10:02 02:56:38 1
2 11 Leanda Cave GBR 09:27:37 09:28:12 00:51:06 05:13:03 03:18:27 14
3 13 Erika Csomor HUN 09:40:56 09:35:43 00:59:20 05:18:34 03:18:02 26
4 9 Jessie Donavan USA 09:43:52 09:41:25 01:07:35 05:11:27 03:19:50 33
5 3 Vanessa Gianinni BRA 09:45:32 09:52:14 00:56:20 05:18:41 03:25:31 (55)
6 6 Ariane Monticeli BRA 09:54:18 10:01:40 01:02:41 05:30:57 03:15:40 80
7 8 Haley Chura USA 09:54:47 09:50:58 00:50:11 05:29:40 03:29:56 51
8 7 Mette Pettersen Moe NOR 10:01:55 10:14:00 00:53:42 05:23:09 03:40:04 (101)
9 14 Camilla Lindholm SWE 10:02:04 10:04:35 01:10:25 05:23:02 03:23:37 83
10 4 Mariana Andrade BRA 10:03:14 10:20:44 01:01:25 05:17:30 03:39:19 111
11 2 Ana Lidia Borba BRA 10:12:13 10:22:41 00:57:01 05:21:01 03:49:11 115
12 10 Hillary Biscay USA 10:12:58 10:12:19 00:53:24 05:35:42 03:38:51 98
13 5 Caroline Gregory USA 10:20:12 10:32:06 00:59:06 05:50:13 03:25:52 139
14 12 Nicole Woysch GER 10:28:24 10:28:08 00:59:27 05:34:09 03:49:48 134

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

The clear favorite is Eneko Llanos who had a DNF in Kona and will be looking for some KPR points in order to qualify for Kona 2015:

  • Eneko Llanos: 70% (1-1)
  • Igor Amorelli: 15% (6-1)
  • Stefan Schmid: 8% (11-1)
  • Balazs Csoke: 2% (65-1)

Female Race Participants

Is she starts in Fortaleza, Leanda will be the pre-race favorite (but she is also on the list for Florida and might also consider Arizona):

  • Leanda Cave: 52% (1-1)
  • Erika Csomor: 19% (4-1)
  • Jessie Donavan: 13% (7-1)
  • Ariane Monticeli: 8% (12-1)
  • Vanessa Gianinni: 5% (20-1)
  • Haley Chura: 2% (50-1)

Ironman Florida 2014 (Nov 1st) – Predictions

IMFlorida

Updates

  • Andrew Starykowicz was injured before Kona and seems to need a longer break to heal properly. He is no longer on the start list.
  • Tim O’Donnell hasn’t announced his final plans, but he appears to favor Arizona for his fall IM and is off the Florida list.
  • Thomas Gerlach is also focusing on Arizona.
  • Leanda Cave announced that she ended her season with a bad cold after racing 70.3 Miami.
  • Jessie Donavan will be starting at IM Fortaleza.
  • Mike Schifferle, Allan Villanueva and Christoph Bastie are also off the list, as are Kathleen Calkins, Uli Brömme, Carolin Lehrieder, Katya Meyers and Sharon Gallant.

Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2005 Marino Vanhoenacker (BEL) 08:28:26 Bella Bayliss (GBR) 09:33:09
2006 Jan Raphael (GER) 08:22:44 Bella Bayliss (GBR) 09:28:28
2007 Stephan Vuckovic (GER) 08:21:29 Nina Kraft (GER) 09:05:35
2008 Tom Evans (CAN) 08:07:59 Bella Bayliss (GBR) 09:07:48
2009 Kirill Kotshegarov (EST) 08:24:29 Sofie Goos (BEL) 09:08:38
2010 James Cunnama (ZAF) 08:15:59 Jessica Jacobs (USA) 09:07:49
2011 Ronnie Schildknecht (SUI) 07:59:42 Jessica Jacobs (USA) 08:55:10
2012 Andrew Starykowicz (USA) 08:06:17 Yvonne Van Vlerken (NED) 08:51:35
2013 Victor Del Corral (ESP) 07:53:12 Yvonne Van Vlerken (NED) 08:43:07

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Victor Del Corral ESP 00:55:23 04:15:15 02:37:29 07:53:12
2 Andrew Starykowicz USA 00:49:53 04:02:17 02:58:18 07:55:22
3 Filip Ospaly CZE 00:48:06 04:23:53 02:41:17 07:58:44

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Yvonne Van Vlerken NED 01:00:14 04:35:49 03:01:55 08:43:07
2 Ashley Clifford USA 00:55:21 04:51:20 02:56:35 08:49:03
3 Erika Csomor HUN 01:02:13 04:45:09 03:03:32 08:56:41

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 07:53:12 Victor Del Corral 2013-11-02
Swim overall 00:44:36 John Flanagan 2011-11-05
Bike overall 04:02:17 Andrew Starykowicz 2013-11-02
Run overall 02:37:29 Victor Del Corral 2013-11-02
Total female 08:43:07 Yvonne Van Vlerken 2013-11-02
Swim female 00:50:26 Tereza Macel 2007-11-03
Bike female 04:35:49 Yvonne Van Vlerken 2013-11-02
Run female 02:53:26 Jessica Jacobs 2011-11-05

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Florida is 21:44.

Race Adjustments for IM Florida

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Athletes Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2005 15:03 -00:58 07:51 -01:11 27 15:03 -00:58 07:51 -01:11
2006 13:10 -03:00 05:27 04:34 40 14:07 -01:59 06:39 01:41
2007 22:23 00:01 14:36 05:11 69 16:52 -01:19 09:18 02:51
2008 23:10 -00:38 14:09 04:22 44 18:27 -01:09 10:31 03:14
2009 17:40 -02:03 15:44 04:18 29 18:17 -01:20 11:34 03:27
2010 15:13 -00:07 11:43 04:44 33 17:47 -01:08 11:35 03:39
2011 24:57 -00:25 15:37 04:12 32 18:48 -01:02 12:10 03:44
2012 22:39 -03:01 23:50 00:30 36 19:17 -01:16 13:37 03:20
2013 41:17 -01:33 27:00 09:10 54 21:44 -01:18 15:06 03:59

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Florida has 2000 KPR points for the winner. It has a total prize purse of 25k$.

Male Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Overall
1 1 Andrew Starykowicz USA 08:11:27 08:41:19 00:49:02 04:11:44 03:05:41 34
2 2 Ben Hoffman USA 08:14:20 08:35:18 00:50:21 04:25:20 02:53:38 21
3 9 Maxim Kriat UKR 08:17:37 08:39:46 00:51:42 04:30:29 02:50:27 (29)
4 3 Timothy O’Donnell USA 08:18:28 08:48:33 00:48:20 04:27:35 02:57:33 52
5 6 Tom Lowe GBR 08:22:00 08:37:47 00:57:24 04:26:57 02:52:39 26
6 4 Pedro Gomes POR 08:23:03 08:53:28 00:51:01 04:29:37 02:57:25 71
7 15 Alberto Casadei ITA 08:31:06 08:59:38 00:49:33 04:35:51 03:00:41 (104)
8 10 Christophe Bastie FRA 08:33:09 08:59:27 00:54:45 04:27:46 03:05:38 102
9 13 Per Bittner GER 08:33:33 08:54:48 00:51:28 04:36:36 03:00:28 79
10 26 Pontus Lindberg SWE 08:35:18 09:10:30 00:55:21 04:33:59 03:00:58 146
11 7 Thomas Gerlach USA 08:40:47 09:04:55 00:55:47 04:30:28 03:09:32 120
12 34 Joerie Vansteelant BEL 08:41:04 09:13:49 01:01:57 04:29:36 03:04:31 (158)
13 29 David Naesvik SWE 08:45:48 09:13:53 00:56:00 04:33:47 03:11:01 158
14 16 Karl-Johan Danielsson SWE 08:48:10 09:20:57 00:50:20 04:34:05 03:18:44 192
15 8 Mike Schifferle SUI 08:48:39 09:11:41 01:02:27 04:38:20 03:02:52 151
16 21 Vinny Johnson USA 08:49:56 09:29:05 00:55:42 04:44:32 03:04:42 224
17 11 Marcel Bischof GER 09:05:20 09:31:53 00:58:45 04:46:43 03:14:52 234
18 14 Raymond Botelho USA 09:06:03 09:47:58 00:55:41 04:39:25 03:25:58 303
19 39 Allan Villanueva MEX 09:21:07 09:48:43 00:56:12 04:53:40 03:26:15 307
20 30 Evgeniy Nikitin RUS 09:24:58 10:19:32 00:52:51 05:06:10 03:20:57 402
21 36 Dantley Young USA 09:25:15 10:18:47 01:04:01 04:52:30 03:23:44 (399)
22 12 Aubrey Aldy USA 09:31:52 10:02:04 01:06:23 05:09:33 03:10:55 360
23 19 Ed Donner USA 09:32:33 10:14:18 01:00:00 04:56:28 03:31:05 389
24 22 Peter Kotland CZE 09:37:56 10:09:35 00:59:05 04:58:16 03:35:36 374
25 24 Ludovic Le Guellec FRA 09:38:12 10:19:06 01:03:16 05:09:00 03:20:57 401
26 18 Vincent Depuiset FRA 09:47:07 10:18:04 01:11:33 05:05:00 03:25:34 (396)
27 35 Robbie Wade IRL 09:48:26 10:31:41 01:00:28 04:57:13 03:45:45 (437)
28 23 Roman Krutina CZE 09:48:44 10:25:45 00:58:49 05:00:00 03:44:56 (423)
29 27 Brent Mcburney USA 10:19:54 10:58:53 01:01:21 04:58:39 04:14:54 (464)
30 37 Jason Smith USA 10:25:29 11:04:48 00:58:44 05:12:15 04:09:30 (469)
31 40 Marek Nemcik SVK 11:14:38 12:11:23 01:12:58 05:31:59 04:24:41 476
5 Lionel Sanders CAN n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
17 Rod De Kanel FRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
20 Robert Duncan USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
25 Frederic Limousin FRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
28 Philip Mosley GBR n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
31 Luan Ortiz Silva BRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
32 Artem Parienko RUS n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
33 Andreas Thissen GER n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
38 Jacob Rhyner USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Overall
1 50 Yvonne Van Vlerken NED 08:53:40 09:21:20 00:59:21 04:43:59 03:05:20 6
2 52 Leanda Cave GBR 09:04:46 09:28:12 00:51:57 04:54:55 03:12:55 14
3 56 Ashley Clifford USA 09:15:29 09:47:48 00:55:25 05:11:19 03:03:45 48
4 66 Tamara Kozulina UKR 09:19:41 09:46:20 01:03:23 05:01:21 03:09:57 46
5 53 Jessie Donavan USA 09:20:23 09:41:25 01:08:34 04:52:53 03:13:55 33
6 60 Kathleen Calkins USA 09:29:16 09:53:53 00:59:10 05:07:12 03:17:55 58
7 54 Uli Bromme USA 09:33:34 09:59:37 01:04:40 05:03:12 03:20:42 75
8 68 Carolin Lehrieder GER 09:36:27 10:18:49 00:59:14 05:18:08 03:14:05 (107)
9 57 Camilla Lindholm SWE 09:37:51 10:04:35 01:11:27 05:03:48 03:17:36 83
10 55 Anna Cleaver NZL 09:42:46 10:15:57 00:54:22 05:12:50 03:30:35 (104)
11 69 Kristin Lie NOR 09:45:24 10:20:42 01:14:11 05:00:42 03:25:30 110
12 70 Katya Meyers USA 09:51:13 10:24:36 01:09:30 05:04:13 03:32:30 (121)
13 61 Jocelyn Cornman USA 09:55:27 10:32:53 01:02:21 05:24:26 03:23:39 (142)
14 73 Nicole Woysch GER 10:03:07 10:28:08 01:00:23 05:14:32 03:43:13 134
15 65 Rachel Jastrebsky USA 10:06:46 10:37:30 01:03:35 05:20:01 03:38:10 146
16 72 Tami Ritchie USA 10:22:22 10:53:03 00:53:59 05:35:16 03:48:08 156
17 64 Alyssa Godesky USA 10:23:05 10:55:31 01:06:16 05:26:47 03:45:03 158
18 62 Federica Frontini URU 10:30:06 10:56:53 01:10:50 05:22:38 03:51:38 159
19 67 Leslie Lamacchia USA 10:31:15 10:59:45 01:09:53 05:32:03 03:44:20 162
20 71 Carla Moreno BRA 10:34:22 10:54:25 00:57:04 05:53:49 03:38:28 (157)
21 63 Sharon Gallant CAN 10:43:02 11:23:28 01:06:18 05:42:11 03:49:34 (167)
58 Dee Atkins USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
59 Michelle Bozarth USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

The race favorites are three athletes that have started in Kona – but with very different results. Ben finished second (and if he starts will probably be focused on validating), Andrew had a DNF (and will be looking to deliver a good result) and TO had a frustrating 3:52 marathon (he might do Arizona instead of Florida). If all of them are not in great shape for Florida, then the race will be hotly contested between three other solid IM racers:

  • Ben Hoffman: 31% (2-1)
  • Andrew Starykowicz: 24% (3-1)
  • Timothy O’Donnell: 20% (4-1)
  • Maxim Kriat: 9% (10-1)
  • Tom Lowe: 7% (13-1)
  • Pedro Gomes: 6% (14-1)

Female Race Participants

As for the men, the top contenders have started in Kona: Yvonne had a DNF, and Leanda finished 18th – both will be looking for a good Florida result:

  • Yvonne Van Vlerken: 64% (1-1)
  • Leanda Cave: 23% (3-1)
  • Ashley Clifford: 4% (23-1)
  • Tamara Kozulina: 4% (26-1)
  • Jessie Donavan: 4% (27-1)
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