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Ironman Wales 2014 (Sept 14th) – Predictions

Thanks to Steve Clark who sent me the Wales start list.

Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2011 Jeremy Jurkiewicz (FRA) 09:04:21 Kristin Moeller (GER) 10:01:19
2012 Sylvain Rota (FRA) 08:52:43 Regula Rohrbach (SUI) 09:45:09
2013 Scott Neyedli (GBR) 09:09:10 Lucy Gossage (GBR) 09:51:21

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Scott Neyedli GBR 00:47:13 05:11:26 03:02:35 09:09:10
2 Marek Jaskolka POL 00:47:05 05:16:02 03:07:22 09:18:16
3 Michael Goehner GER 00:52:07 05:16:10 03:02:05 09:19:01

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Lucy Gossage GBR 00:56:59 05:31:36 03:15:02 09:51:21
2 Regula Rohrbach SUI 00:56:01 05:36:54 03:35:44 10:18:00
3 Katja Konschak GER 00:51:09 06:02:30 03:12:39 10:24:05

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:52:43 Sylvain Rota 2012-09-16
Swim overall 00:44:07 Harry Wiltshire 2012-09-16
Swim overall 00:44:07 Daniel Halksworth 2012-09-16
Bike overall 05:04:16 Sylvain Rota 2012-09-16
Run overall 02:48:01 Jeremy Jurkiewicz 2011-09-11
Total female 09:45:09 Regula Rohrbach 2012-09-16
Swim female 00:47:55 Anja Beranek 2011-09-11
Bike female 05:31:36 Lucy Gossage 2013-09-08
Run female 03:02:28 Kristin Moeller 2011-09-11

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Wales is – 11:39.

Race Adjustments for IM Wales

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Athletes Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2011 -19:41 04:20 -25:30 00:21 20 -19:41 04:20 -25:30 00:21
2012 02:13 04:44 -23:34 17:26 22 -08:44 04:32 -24:32 08:53
2013 -17:28 00:55 -28:37 -01:19 22 -11:39 03:20 -25:53 05:29

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Wales has 2000 KPR points for the winner. It has a total prize purse of 25k$.

Male Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating Rank
1 1 Fraser Cartmell GBR 09:12:00 09:00:21 00:47:54 04:43:15 03:17:54 (100)
2 4 Nick Baldwin SEY 09:12:32 09:00:52 00:53:41 04:45:10 03:04:23 105
3 14 Matt Trautman ZAF 09:12:56 09:01:16 00:48:14 04:41:32 02:59:20 (110)
4 2 Daniel Niederreiter AUT 09:16:33 09:04:48 00:51:25 04:53:28 03:09:12 123
5 11 Mike Schifferle SUI 09:20:01 09:08:12 01:00:33 04:52:00 03:06:17 137
6 12 Oliver Simon GBR 09:46:06 09:33:44 00:48:39 04:55:39 03:33:48 232
7 15 Hendrik-Jan Verhaegen BEL 09:46:49 09:34:26 00:55:57 04:51:59 03:13:18 (238)
8 5 James Brown GBR 09:52:20 09:39:50 01:01:30 05:02:04 03:14:57 262
9 3 Paul Hawkins GBR 09:53:32 09:41:00 00:59:43 05:35:27 03:24:43 (265)
10 6 Steve Clark GBR 10:03:57 09:51:12 00:57:57 05:02:25 03:22:03 (303)
11 17 Martin Cain GBR 10:28:57 10:15:41 00:59:11 05:17:20 03:37:13 382
12 7 Christian Funk GER 11:43:09 11:28:19 01:25:38 05:37:16 03:41:38 (454)
8 Rinus Holvoet BEL n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
9 Dominic Rohan-Gates GBR n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
10 Peru Alfaro ESP n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
13 Harry Springall GBR n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
16 Peter Wilby GBR n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Female Race Participants

Tamsin Lewis was planning on racing in Wales, but has said on Twitter she can’t start. This leaves only a small women’s field:

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating Rank
1 24 Julia Bohn GER 10:36:59 10:23:32 01:01:02 05:30:38 03:36:17 (119)
2 22 Katharina Grohmann GER 10:38:31 10:25:02 01:14:22 05:26:24 03:21:45 121
3 23 Amy Forshaw GBR 11:01:21 10:47:24 01:03:45 05:40:27 03:35:21 146
4 25 Laura Bostock GBR 12:41:25 12:25:21 01:02:32 06:13:09 04:32:03 (162)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

The men’s race promises some close racing, and there is no obvious pre-race favorite:

  • Nick Baldwin: 34% (2-1)
  • Daniel Niederreiter: 20% (4-1)
  • Matt Trautman: 18% (4-1)
  • Mike Schifferle: 16% (5-1)
  • Fraser Cartmell: 9% (10-1)

Female Race Participants

  • Julia Bohn: 56% (1-1)
  • Katharina Grohmann: 31% (2-1)
  • Amy Forshaw: 8% (12-1)
  • Laura Bostock: 2% (47-1)

Challenge Almere 2014 (Sep 13th) – Predictions

Previous Winners

Almere is the second-oldest Ironman-distance race. It has been a member of the challenge family since 2013.

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2013 Bart Colpaert (BEL) 08:34:50 Susan Blatt (GER) 09:24:40

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Bart Colpaert BEL 00:46:14 04:46:34 02:57:24 08:34:50
2 Georg Potrebitsch GER 00:49:20 04:49:23 03:00:12 08:43:19
3 Erik-Simon Strijk NED 00:53:07 04:42:55 03:05:03 08:45:48

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Susan Blatt GER 00:56:19 05:06:12 03:17:25 09:24:40
2 Irene Kinnegim NED 01:07:27 05:14:35 03:17:17 09:47:37
3 Kathrin Walther GER 00:56:44 05:23:27 03:40:01 10:07:44

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:34:50 Bart Colpaert 2013-09-14
Swim overall 00:46:10 Dylan McNeice 2013-09-14
Bike overall 04:42:55 Erik-Simon Strijk 2013-09-14
Run overall 02:57:24 Bart Colpaert 2013-09-14
Total female 09:24:40 Susan Blatt 2013-09-14
Swim female 00:51:37 Hillary Biscay 2013-09-14
Bike female 05:06:12 Susan Blatt 2013-09-14
Run female 03:17:17 Irene Kinnegim 2013-09-14

Course Rating

The Course Rating for Challenge Almere is 11:13.

Race Adjustments for Challenge Almere

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Athletes Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2013 11:13 00:18 01:44 03:49 16 11:13 00:18 01:44 03:49

Male Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating Rank
1 4 Markus Fachbach GER 08:33:10 08:44:03 00:49:48 04:43:09 03:04:05 (46)
2 6 Gerrit Schellens BEL 08:34:51 08:45:46 00:53:25 04:57:39 02:46:36 (49)
3 8 Dejan Patrcevic CRO 08:39:57 08:50:59 00:52:14 04:58:05 02:54:39 (63)
4 2 Georg Potrebitsch GER 08:47:33 08:58:44 00:49:19 04:54:11 03:13:06 93
5 5 Petr Vabrousek CZE 08:49:36 09:00:50 00:55:10 04:52:38 03:03:45 104
6 11 Sergio Marques POR 08:49:59 09:01:13 00:55:07 05:01:41 02:58:59 109
7 1 Bart Colpaert BEL 08:50:03 09:01:17 00:46:55 04:46:44 03:05:38 (110)
8 7 Andrey Lyatskiy RUS 08:53:05 09:04:23 00:48:34 04:55:51 03:09:52 120
9 9 Tuukka Miettinen FIN 09:00:21 09:11:49 00:55:34 04:54:28 03:06:22 (153)
10 21 David Naesvik SWE 09:03:36 09:15:08 00:55:11 04:48:47 03:16:38 161
11 3 Dirk Wijnalda NED 09:04:52 09:16:25 00:57:00 05:00:07 03:06:33 171
12 10 Thomas Naasz NED 09:24:53 09:36:52 00:55:35 05:01:20 03:18:32 (248)
13 15 Thijs Koelen NED 09:29:15 09:41:19 00:51:50 04:54:33 03:26:33 (267)
14 19 Evgeniy Nikitin RUS 09:51:16 10:03:48 00:51:04 05:10:48 03:45:08 351
15 18 Georgy Kaurov RUS 09:59:52 10:12:35 00:50:24 05:00:19 03:33:54 (376)
16 14 Diederik Scheltinga NED 11:29:29 11:44:06 00:51:44 05:23:30 04:52:03 (455)
12 Alexey Brylev RUS n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
13 Vladimir Savic SRB n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
16 Bart Candel NED n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
17 Valentin Zasypkin RUS n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
20 Jon Thorp NOR n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
22 Aleksandr Kocetkov LTU n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
23 Margus Nomm EST n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
24 Jan Jakubicek CZE n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
25 Petr Minarik CZE n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating Rank
1 51 Heleen Bij De Vaate NED 09:47:37 10:00:05 01:05:40 05:16:11 03:29:31 75
2 53 Kristin Lie NOR 10:04:14 10:17:03 01:12:06 05:18:06 03:29:02 103
3 52 Celia Kuch GER 10:12:28 10:25:27 01:03:20 05:25:28 03:38:10 123
4 59 Lina-Kristin Schink GER 10:27:52 10:41:11 01:10:18 05:31:08 03:30:48 (142)
5 56 Tineke Van den Berg NED 10:29:42 10:43:03 01:09:09 05:11:29 03:40:30 (142)
6 54 Vanessa Pereira POR 10:35:28 10:48:57 01:02:01 05:39:14 03:41:40 148
7 57 Rahel Bellinga NED 10:50:03 11:03:50 01:02:49 05:18:42 04:00:32 (157)
8 60 Zeljka Saban CRO 11:00:33 11:14:34 00:56:00 06:04:53 03:59:46 (159)
9 55 Corine Nelen NED 11:12:55 11:27:11 01:01:31 05:32:12 04:10:57 (160)
58 Victoria Gill GBR n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
61 Anna Kusch GER n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

Bart Colpaert is back to defend his title, but he faces strong competition by last year’s second finisher Georg Potrebitsch and by Markus Fachbach who is my pre-race favorite:

  • Markus Fachbach: 33% (2-1)
  • Georg Potrebitsch: 23% (3-1)
  • Bart Colpaert: 14% (6-1)
  • Sergio Marques: 10% (9-1)
  • Gerrit Schellens: 10% (9-1)
  • Dejan Patrcevic: 6% (16-1)
  • Petr Vabrousek: 2% (58-1)

Female Race Participants

The women’s race appears to be a close call between Kristin Lie (solid racer who will probably have to chase after the swim) and veteran Heleen Bij De Vaate. Celia Kuch will be in the mix early on but will probably fall back on the bike and run:

  • Kristin Lie: 40% (1-1)
  • Heleen Bij De Vaate: 34% (2-1)
  • Celia Kuch: 22% (3-1)
  • Lina-Kristin Schink: 2% (55-1)

Ironman Wisconsin 2014 – Analyzing Results

Race Conditions

This year was probably the last Pro race in Wisconsin. It had the fastest conditions that I’ve seen here so far: an adjustment of 6:47 was way faster than the course rating of -3:36. It helped Daniel Bretscher to post a new course record, and female winner Britta Martin was only three minutes slower than Gina Crawford’s course record of 9:27.

Male Race Results

Konstantin Bachor was leading the race into T2, and was able to hold the lead until about the 16 mile mark. Then his wheels came off a little bit, and Daniel Bretscher managed to take the lead. He was able to win the race even if Brandon Marsh closed the gap to just a minute in the last section of the run. Pedro Gomes managed to take the third spot on the podium.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected
1 Daniel Bretscher USA 00:52:16 04:42:57 02:50:14 08:31:20 -23:20
2 Brandon Marsh USA 00:47:52 04:46:54 02:51:06 08:32:23 -14:54
3 Pedro Gomes POR 00:52:17 04:42:51 02:55:41 08:36:56 -16:02
4 Konstantin Bachor GER 00:52:16 04:31:14 03:08:27 08:38:42 -01:17
5 Matt Hanson USA 00:53:32 04:55:17 02:55:42 08:50:16 -00:09
6 Karol Dzalaj SVK 00:52:24 04:51:03 03:09:40 08:59:38 -10:20
7 Jared Milam USA 00:56:33 04:58:49 03:07:11 09:08:47 -12:29
8 Adam Bohach USA 00:59:09 05:08:37 03:03:28 09:18:11 00:06
9 Ryan Rau USA 00:59:50 05:10:18 03:03:11 09:18:59 -03:58
10 Nick Early USA 00:52:20 04:56:29 03:28:17 09:23:24 n/a
11 Blake Becker USA 00:52:27 05:10:43 03:42:57 09:52:33 27:31
12 Jared Woodford USA 00:52:27 05:13:44 03:45:02 09:58:31 -23:43
13 Paul Eicher USA 00:52:34 04:59:33 03:59:03 09:59:43 -03:16
14 Jeremy Howard USA 00:52:19 05:34:10 03:40:52 10:13:52 -00:51
15 Andres Castillo COL 00:47:54 05:14:59 04:05:48 10:15:29 1:10:07
16 Thomas Gerlach USA 00:56:30 04:47:29 04:27:38 10:17:36 1:21:23
17 Jason Smith USA 00:57:22 05:23:26 04:09:13 10:37:12 n/a

Female Race Results

On the women’s side, Britta Martin won the race by more than 10 minutes in front of Tamara Kozulina. Ashley Clifford ran herself into the third place.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected
1 Britta Martin NZL 00:59:13 05:15:26 03:08:40 09:30:08 -01:36
2 Tamara Kozulina UKR 01:04:13 05:15:52 03:14:15 09:41:16 02:47
3 Ashley Clifford USA 00:56:29 05:32:10 03:09:36 09:45:10 05:41
4 Ariane Monticeli BRA 01:04:11 05:30:17 03:04:11 09:49:40 -04:18
5 Jackie Arendt USA 00:56:28 05:30:23 03:29:30 10:03:58 15:39
6 Jessica Smith USA 00:57:12 05:28:10 03:57:02 10:29:41 18:59
7 Tami Ritchie USA 00:52:31 05:46:48 03:54:57 10:42:13 -01:19
8 Andrea Hutchins USA 01:11:25 05:53:43 03:34:19 10:49:36 n/a
9 Palmira Alvarez MEX 01:11:07 05:46:25 03:52:58 10:58:55 -18:25
  Kim Schwabenbauer USA 01:04:18 05:21:28   DNF  

Triathlete Kona Preview – Now available!

Triathlete October

Triathlete Magazine asked me to provide my input for the Kona Preview in their October issue which has just hit the newsstands.I really enjoyed writing about some of the contenders in the race and how different scenarios might play out.

You can download an electronic version of my Kona preview, and there is a lot more content in the magazine. I really enjoyed a discussion about Kona and preparing for the race by the top-notch coaches Siri Lindley, Dave Scott, and Matt Dixon.

I’ll expand on my thoughts in my upcoming Kona Rating Report (already available for pre-order).

Ironman Hawaii 2014 – Pro Startlists

At the end of the qualifying period and handling all rolldowns, the Pro start lists for Kona are finalized. At this point, there can be no more additions to the list – when athletes can’t start there won’t be any more rolldowns.

At this point, the bibs are preliminary and based on the procedure WTC used in the last years to assign the bibs (last year’s winner gets #1 or #101, the rest according to KPR rankings, and #13 is not assigned). As soon as an official bib list is available, I’ll update the numbers as necessary.The bibs are now based on the official start list published on ironman.com.

I plan to update this post (based on the original pro list from Ironman.com) with new developments, so that it always reflects the current information.

Updates

  • Aug 31st: Cameron Brown has declined his slot, and Andreas Raelert managed to get a last minute slot.
  • Sep 10th: Domenico Passuello decided he did not want his slot. This rolled the slot to Markus Thomschke – who didn’t want it.  Then it rolled to Paul Ambrose who accepted:
    Paul Tweet

Withdrawals

As usual, some athletes are qualified for Kona, but run into issues in their final Kona prep and can’t recover in time for a Kona start:

  • Melissa Hauschildt
    Melissa was dealing with a torn pec tendon since 70.3 Champs and has withdrawn for Kona (announced on Oct 3rd). “The diagnosis from the doctor in Boulder after x-rays and ultrasound, is a torn pec, intercostals and connective tissue and a subluxed rib. It’s on the mend. I can now ride completely pain free. I can run, although fast running flares it up a little.” (More at witsup.com)
  • Peter Robertson
    Robbo was training for Kona when he hit the deck hard and broke his clavicle:
    RobboTweet
    He announced his withdrawal on Sept 29th.
  • Jessie Donavan
    Jessie has been dealing with leg issues (“sciatic nerve inflammation”) for most of the season. She describes in her blog post “To Kona or Not to Kona” how she finally decided not to race.
  • David Dellow
    David is apparently out of the race with an injury (as reported by firstoffthebike).

Male Race Participants

Bib Name Nation Age
1 Frederik Van Lierde BEL 35
2 Luke McKenzie AUS 33
3 Sebastian Kienle GER 30
4 Bart Aernouts BEL 30
5 Tyler Butterfield BMU 31
6 Timothy O’Donnell USA 34
7 Ivan Rana ESP 35
8 James Cunnama ZAF 31
9 Jan Frodeno GER 33
10 Terenzo Bozzone NZL 29
11 Craig Alexander AUS 41
12 Pete Jacobs AUS 32
14 Victor Del Corral ESP 34
15 Andy Potts USA 37
16 Michael Weiss AUT 33
17 Igor Amorelli BRA 30
18 Matthew Russell USA 31
19 Joe Gambles AUS 32
20 Tim Van Berkel AUS 30
21 Daniel Halksworth GBR 28
22 Chris McDonald AUS 36
23 David Plese SLO 31
24 Marino Vanhoenacker BEL 38
25 Eneko Llanos ESP 37
26 Maik Twelsiek GER 33
27 Elliot Holtham CAN 30
28 Faris Al-Sultan GER 36
29 TJ Tollakson USA 34
30 Paul Matthews AUS 31
31 Andrew Starykowicz USA 32
32 Harry Wiltshire GBR 31
33 Marek Jaskolka POL 38
34 Richie Cunningham AUS 41
35 Christian Kramer GER 31
36 Jeremy Jurkiewicz FRA
37 David Dellow AUS 35
38 Cyril Viennot FRA 32
39 Peter Robertson AUS 38
40 Filip Ospaly CZE 38
41 Ben Hoffman USA 31
42 Christian Brader GER 34
43 Nils Frommhold GER 28
44 Justin Daerr USA 33
45 Kyle Buckingham ZAF 30
46 Romain Guillaume FRA 29
47 Marko Albert EST 35
48 Bevan Docherty NZL 37
49 Daniel Fontana ITA 38
50 Timothy Reed AUS 29
51 Axel Zeebroek BEL 36
52 Boris Stein GER 29
53 Ronnie Schildknecht SUI 35
54 Andreas Raelert GER 38
55 Paul Ambrose GBR 30

Female Race Participants

Bib Name Nation Age
101 Mirinda Carfrae AUS 33
102 Rachel Joyce GBR 36
103 Meredith Kessler USA 36
104 Liz Blatchford GBR 34
105 Caroline Steffen SUI 36
106 Gina Crawford NZL 33
107 Yvonne Van Vlerken NED 35
108 Linsey Corbin USA 33
109 Caitlin Snow USA 32
110 Elizabeth Lyles USA 36
111 Leanda Cave GBR 36
112 Daniela Ryf SUI 27
113 Amber Ferreira USA 32
114 Melissa Hauschildt AUS 31
115 Sara Gross CAN 38
116 Catriona Morrison GBR 37
117 Mary Beth Ellis USA 37
118 Melanie Burke NZL
119 Asa Lundstroem SWE 30
120 Beth Shutt USA 35
121 Michelle Vesterby DEN 31
122 Kristin Moeller GER 30
123 Lucy Gossage GBR 34
124 Amanda Stevens USA 37
125 Jodie Swallow GBR 33
126 Sofie Goos BEL 34
127 Natascha Badmann SUI 47
128 Julia Gajer GER 32
129 Lisa Roberts USA 35
130 Corinne Abraham GBR 36
131 Simone Braendli SUI 34
132 Jackie Arendt USA 30
133 Kim Schwabenbauer USA 35
134 Bree Wee USA 34
135 Jessie Donavan USA 38
136 Heather Wurtele CAN 35
137 Kelly Williamson USA 36
138 Katja Konschak GER 36
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