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Challenge Weymouth 2014 – Analyzing Results

Because of bad weather conditions, the swim in Weymouth was shortened to a 1.2 mile swim, and the run appears to be short by at least 4k. Therefore, I can’t really compare the finishing times to other IM-distance races and I’m not including the results in my rating analysis.

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected
1 Joe Skipper GBR 00:31:00 04:43:18 02:29:40 07:49:03 n/a
2 Joel Jameson GBR 00:33:05 04:45:17 02:34:38 07:57:37 n/a
3 Stephen Bayliss GBR 00:27:26 04:51:09 02:41:57 08:04:37 n/a
4 Darren Jenkins AUS 00:36:58 04:48:16 02:41:31 08:12:03 n/a
5 Craig Twigg GBR 00:30:42 04:50:50 02:52:47 08:20:07 n/a
6 Egoitz Zalakain ESP 00:32:54 04:57:29 02:49:08 08:24:56 n/a
7 Keegan Williams NZL 00:30:19 05:11:40 02:41:01 08:28:07 n/a
8 Thomas Vickery 00:33:52 05:08:36 02:41:40 08:29:44 n/a
9 Zoltan Petsuk 00:29:48 05:02:30 02:53:52 08:30:56 n/a
10 Magnus Magnoy 00:38:54 05:15:08 03:00:54 09:02:15 n/a
Karl Alexander 00:35:04 04:50:29 DNF
Chris Goodfellow GBR 00:54:00 DNF

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected
1 Eleanor Haresign GBR 00:33:33 05:21:34 02:55:50 08:54:41 n/a
2 Joanna Carritt GBR 00:37:16 05:20:24 02:56:15 08:59:49 n/a
3 Michi Herlbauer AUT 00:32:09 05:26:10 02:57:45 09:01:14 n/a
4 Gabriella Zelinka HUN 00:36:47 05:26:36 03:04:01 09:13:58 n/a
5 Tamsyn Hayes NZL 00:36:32 05:23:39 03:14:03 09:20:34 n/a
6 Charisa Wernick USA 00:36:25 05:38:37 03:25:20 09:46:40 n/a

Ironman Wales 2014 – Analyzing Results

Race Conditions

As usual, Wales was very slow – an adjustment of -20:23 is just as little bit slower than previous races (except for 2012 where the run was shortened). The slow times are mainly the result of the bike course at -28:42 which the slowest of the active Ironman courses.

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected
1 Matt Trautman ZAF 00:51:54 05:03:29 03:04:44 09:07:28 -14:28
2 Fraser Cartmell GBR 00:51:58 05:03:23 03:07:21 09:10:16 -10:51
3 Peru Alfaro ESP 00:48:29 05:12:17 03:09:09 09:18:28 n/a
4 Nick Baldwin SEY 00:54:40 05:19:45 03:17:58 09:41:04 18:16
5 Harry Springall GBR 00:58:27 05:15:48 03:29:07 09:52:05 n/a
6 James Brown GBR 01:03:05 05:28:11 03:19:05 09:58:53 -03:33
7 Rinus Holvoet BEL 00:56:25 05:32:27 03:21:25 10:00:28 n/a
8 Mike Schifferle SUI 01:05:53 05:24:13 03:18:54 10:03:09 32:11
9 Steve Clark GBR 01:02:50 05:38:58 03:25:58 10:17:36 03:05
10 Paul Hawkins GBR 00:52:26 05:31:17 04:07:49 10:40:02 34:52
11 Martin Cain GBR 01:07:57 05:58:21 03:52:20 11:13:49 32:42
12 Christian Funk GER 01:29:28 06:21:29 03:42:26 11:49:10 -05:55
  Daniel Niederreiter AUT 00:51:57 05:10:51   DNF  
  Oliver Simon GBR 00:49:49     DNF  

Update: An earlier version of this post missed Peru Alfaro, thanks to Charlie Pennington for pointing it out to me.

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected
1 Amy Forshaw GBR 01:08:13 06:06:44 03:33:10 10:57:26 -14:47
2 Julia Bohn GER 01:08:52 06:23:06 03:37:38 11:20:54 31:40

Ironman Malaysia (Sep 27th) – Predictions

This is the first race on this course, so there are no course ratings and expected finishing times.

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Malaysia has 2000 KPR points for the winner. It has a total prize purse of 40k$.

Male Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating Rank
1 1 Cameron Brown NZL n/a 08:29:47 00:50:00 04:41:22 02:52:25 12
2 2 Fredrik Croneborg SWE n/a 08:54:59 00:51:38 04:51:58 02:55:52 77
3 4 Matt Burton AUS n/a 08:55:17 00:53:22 04:40:00 03:04:42 (79)
4 3 Luke Bell AUS n/a 09:04:43 00:49:16 04:49:48 03:19:33 120
5 5 Benjamin Sanson FRA n/a 09:09:15 00:46:24 05:34:51 03:32:38 141
6 6 Carl Read NZL n/a 09:10:37 00:53:02 05:00:35 03:03:22 148
7 14 Karol Dzalaj SVK n/a 09:15:49 00:53:09 04:49:34 03:17:24 164
8 10 Simon Cochrane NZL n/a 09:17:20 00:52:51 05:02:18 03:06:52 175
9 7 Brian Fuller AUS n/a 09:17:21 00:51:51 04:50:47 03:14:59 176
10 21 Tohara Kaito JAP n/a 09:27:54 00:54:36 04:55:55 03:05:39 (211)
11 15 Eneko Elosegui ESP n/a 09:36:12 00:58:52 04:55:50 03:24:58 240
12 16 Michal Kulich SVK n/a 09:38:46 01:01:42 05:10:17 03:05:13 255
13 8 Patrik Nilsson SWE n/a 09:38:56 00:49:44 04:42:11 03:41:08 (256)
14 17 Daiki Masuda JPN n/a 09:40:43 00:56:03 05:11:15 03:34:13 260
15 19 Yu Shinozaki JPN n/a 09:44:53 00:55:46 04:56:20 03:35:42 276
16 9 Adam Gordon NZL n/a 09:56:34 00:54:51 05:11:24 03:29:35 (321)
17 27 Jon Woods NZL n/a 10:00:16 00:56:21 05:08:02 03:34:57 336
18 11 Timothy Beardall AUS n/a 10:00:39 01:01:42 04:46:44 03:55:23 339
19 12 Dan Brown PHI n/a 10:11:53 01:03:20 05:39:36 03:50:56 366
20 20 Josef Svoboda CZE n/a 12:20:41 01:12:22 06:08:10 04:30:31 448
13 Zsombor Deak ROM n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
18 Markus Mlinar AUT n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating Rank
1 31 Diana Riesler GER n/a 09:43:49 00:58:41 05:05:35 03:24:07 37
2 35 Rebecca Preston AUS n/a 09:44:34 00:56:05 05:24:48 03:18:18 (39)
3 36 Beth Gerdes USA n/a 10:02:16 01:02:57 05:34:08 03:08:49 (78)
4 37 Michelle Duffield AUS n/a 10:11:59 00:59:53 05:29:39 03:23:44 (95)
5 34 Keiko Tanaka JPN n/a 10:13:58 00:55:21 05:25:45 03:27:47 97
6 32 Shiao-yu Li TWN n/a 10:14:44 01:06:40 05:26:08 03:18:42 99
7 40 Maki Nishiuchi JPN n/a 10:25:43 00:52:41 05:36:58 03:50:13 (122)
8 33 Dimity-Lee Duke AUS n/a 10:28:15 01:03:00 05:30:52 03:34:05 (126)
9 39 Kristy Hallett AUS n/a 10:39:04 01:02:42 05:28:21 03:44:47 (136)
10 38 Zsuzsanna Harsanyi HUN n/a 11:04:26 01:03:54 06:00:45 03:48:07 (154)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

Cam Brown is the big name on the start list, but it’s hard to predict how he will do after a long season (including a recent win at MetaMan and declining his Kona slot). Luke Bell is coming back from an injury (and DNFs in Western Australia, Australia and Mont Tremblant), so Fredrik Croneburg has a much better winning chance than his rating would imply.

  • Cameron Brown: 64% (1-1)
  • Luke Bell: 17% (5-1)
  • Fredrik Croneborg: 10% (9-1)
  • Matt Burton: 6% (15-1)

Female Race Participants

Diana Riesler is clearly the strongest athlete on the bike – but it remains to be seen if she’ll be able to race well in the Malaysia climate:

  • Diana Riesler: 64% (1-1)
  • Shiao-yu Li: 16% (5-1)
  • Beth Gerdes: 12% (8-1)
  • Michelle Duffield: 4% (22-1)
  • Dimity-Lee Duke: 2% (54-1)
  • Keiko Tanaka: 2% (55-1)

Challenge Almere 2014 – Analyzing Results

Race Conditions

The weather in Almere was much better this year than last year where we had strong winds, rain and cold temperatures. This resulted in an adjustment that was about six minutes faster than last year (17:17, leading to a new course rating of 14:15) and also faster winning times.

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected
1 Markus Fachbach GER 00:46:56 04:41:45 02:54:28 08:28:25 00:38
2 Dirk Wijnalda NED 00:54:54 04:45:59 02:47:54 08:33:09 -26:51
3 Chris Fischer DEN 00:50:12 04:42:43 02:56:19 08:34:05 -23:09
4 Sergio Marques POR 00:50:00 04:46:53 02:55:42 08:37:11 -07:29
5 Petr Vabrousek CZE 00:53:29 04:47:21 02:57:30 08:43:57 -00:07
6 Gerrit Schellens BEL 00:50:12 04:59:58 02:48:33 08:44:30 15:31
7 David Naesvik SWE 00:50:05 04:42:58 03:09:23 08:46:55 -11:21
8 Thijs Koelen NED 00:50:35 04:46:16 03:05:39 08:47:26 -37:00
9 Dejan Patrcevic CRO 00:49:54 04:57:51 02:55:57 08:48:49 14:45
10 Bart Candel NED 00:53:23 04:52:52 02:59:31 08:50:29 n/a
11 Georgy Kaurov RUS 00:46:51 04:49:59 03:15:54 08:58:41 -56:40
12 Andrey Lyatskiy RUS 00:46:56 04:51:12 03:28:25 09:11:19 24:35
13 Thomas Naasz NED 00:53:20 05:02:23 03:15:32 09:16:56 -02:07
14 Petr Minarik CZE 00:56:31 05:12:04 03:11:09 09:24:52 n/a
15 Aleksei Brylev RUS 00:50:07 05:37:07 03:17:48 09:50:23 17:57
16 Margus Nomm EST 01:02:59 05:08:58 03:31:22 09:51:49 n/a
17 Valentin Zasypkin RUS 01:04:35 05:28:15 03:37:12 10:15:04 n/a
18 Jan Jakubicek CZE 00:50:11 05:19:55 04:14:42 10:39:01 n/a
19 Aleksandr Kocetkov LTU 01:04:33 05:34:35 03:53:10 10:41:23 n/a
20 Evgeniy Nikitin RUS 00:50:05 05:22:57 05:02:16 11:21:05 1:39:05
Georg Potrebitsch GER 00:46:54 04:46:48 DNF
Diederik Scheltinga NED 00:49:54 04:46:29 DNF
Vladimir Savic SRB 00:49:59 04:53:13 DNF
Tuukka Miettinen FIN 00:56:24 05:02:04 DNF
Bart Colpaert BEL 00:44:25 DNF
Jon Thorp NOR 00:54:30 DNF

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected
1 Heleen Bij De Vaate NED 01:01:24 04:59:22 03:10:59 09:16:26 -25:51
2 Tineke Van den Berg NED 01:01:13 05:01:23 03:17:28 09:26:04 -58:52
3 Victoria Gill GBR 01:01:12 05:15:29 03:20:41 09:42:53 n/a
4 Celia Kuch GER 00:59:16 05:19:33 03:32:12 09:56:25 -09:57
5 Lina-Kristin Schink GER 01:06:50 05:21:21 03:34:58 10:08:59 -12:43
6 Anna Kusch GER 00:56:26 05:40:55 03:30:43 10:13:20 n/a
7 Rahel Bellinga NED 00:58:51 05:10:18 04:02:31 10:19:08 -24:53
8 Corine Nelen NED 00:55:37 05:30:50 03:51:30 10:22:57 -44:18
9 Vanessa Pereira POR 00:59:19 05:35:24 03:46:16 10:27:53 -00:58
10 Zeljka Saban CRO 00:53:21 06:02:32 04:11:45 11:14:37 21:38
Kristin Lie NOR 01:06:49 05:23:40 DNF
Camilla Larsson SWE 01:18:24 DNF

Kona 2014 Rating Report

Title Kona 2014 Rating Report Thumb

I have released my Kona 2014 Rating Report focused on the upcoming “big dance” on Hawaii.

The report is 90 pages with tons of information:

  • Ironman Hawaii results, the course and course records
  • Detailed analysis from last year’s race
  • The Kona 2014 start list and my predicted finishing times for the pro athletes
  • Based on the predicted times for each of the legs, I have a look how the race may unfold
  • Odds for the winners and Top 3
  • My views on the contenders and interviews with a lot of Pro starters
  • Previous results of all Kona Pros

A lot of people have asked how they can pay me back in some way for the information I’ve been putting out. In order to enable that, I’m releasing this report through Gumroad. The report is still free (you can just enter “0” as the amount), but if you want to help with my hosting costs and enable me to provide a better race coverage, you can donate an amount of your choice. Regardless of whether you donate or not, feel free to share with others and enjoy!

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