TriRating – Page 265 – Triathlon. Data. Insights.

IM Lake Placid 2013 – Analyzing Results

February 26, 2017

Race Conditions

With an adjustment of -2:09 conditions were typically slow for Lake Placid (new course rating of -1:58). Even across the disciplines the adjustments were in line with what we’ve seen in the last years.

Male Race Results

Andy Potts took care of business: Even with a slower than expected race, he validated his Kona slot and won the race with time to spare. Daniel Fontana came in second – and barely missed qualifying for Kona. Ian Mikelson continued his streak of beating my estimates and improving his rating (and also got enough points for a Kona slot).

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time	Diff to expected
1	Andy Potts	USA	00:46:48	04:48:33	03:02:41	08:43:29	13:04
2	Daniel Fontana	ITA	00:49:23	04:56:21	02:58:00	08:48:29	14:06
3	Ian Mikelson	USA	00:49:55	05:02:43	02:53:41	08:51:07	-07:42
4	Balazs Csoke	HUN	00:49:22	04:58:29	03:02:09	08:55:55	-07:12
5	Ryan Cain	CAN	00:54:31	04:59:23	02:56:37	08:55:57	-38:30
6	Scott Defilippis	USA	00:55:03	05:04:00	02:53:10	08:57:58	-14:13
7	Douglas Maclean	USA	00:58:37	05:01:29	03:02:51	09:08:49	-34:32
8	Nathan Buttrick	USA	01:00:21	05:06:11	03:03:33	09:15:49	n/a
9	Rene Vallant	AUT	00:56:41	04:48:58	03:25:30	09:17:10	-12:33
10	Patrick Wheeler	USA	00:54:58	05:12:01	03:05:28	09:20:05	-38:15
11	Tim Snow	USA	00:54:44	05:21:54	03:01:54	09:25:39	-03:59
12	Jared Milam	USA	00:52:33	05:14:07	03:18:40	09:30:25	11:36
13	Tom Wood	USA	00:56:49	05:22:59	03:15:02	09:40:44	n/a
14	Brad Seng	USA	00:57:01	05:21:24	03:17:05	09:42:21	20:20
15	Chris Glibert	USA	01:02:17	05:37:07	02:59:23	09:43:57	09:47
16	John Hirsch	USA	00:54:46	05:25:02	03:22:46	09:48:49	02:52
17	Aubrey Aldy	USA	01:05:42	05:30:09	03:11:10	09:53:11	n/a
18	Brendan Halpin	USA	01:05:39	05:11:15	03:38:05	10:01:00	29:17
19	Jim Lamastra	USA	00:52:42	05:15:52	04:10:26	10:29:57	49:18
20	Peter Kotland	USA	01:00:25	05:29:33	03:54:55	10:32:46	00:45

Female Race Results

Carrie Lester was leading the race early in the run, but couldn’t hold on and ended in third. After coming 2nd in Lake Placid last year (and also in IM Texas), she posted the fastest run, improved her finish time by more than 20 minutes (even in slightly slower conditions) and managed to win her first Ironman race. The podium was completed by Katy Blakemore.

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time	Diff to expected
1	Jennie Hansen	USA	01:03:16	05:20:25	03:05:04	09:35:06	-09:21
2	Katy Blakemore	USA	00:52:05	05:32:12	03:12:31	09:42:35	-06:48
3	Carrie Lester	AUS	00:55:17	05:23:29	03:23:10	09:47:59	11:37
4	Kristin Andrews	USA	01:00:48	05:31:37	03:11:41	09:50:34	-10:06
5	Danielle Kehoe	USA	01:03:20	05:22:58	03:24:32	09:56:33	n/a
6	Dede Griesbauer	USA	00:52:16	05:23:02	03:42:46	10:04:07	-12:30
7	Kelly Fillnow	USA	01:04:58	05:34:53	03:22:59	10:09:42	-09:02
8	Jacqui Gordon	USA	01:00:16	05:31:54	03:38:46	10:17:35	03:20
9	Sharon Schmidt-Mongrain	USA	01:02:15	05:37:59	03:41:52	10:28:03	06:03
10	Marie Danais	CAN	00:57:45	05:44:50	03:53:44	10:44:21	06:11
11	Robin Sandos	USA	00:58:40	05:48:57	04:01:28	10:56:13	n/a
12	Mackenzie Madison	USA	00:58:23	05:31:18	04:52:24	11:28:46	49:28

Ironman UK 2013 – Predictions

February 26, 2017

Previous Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Daniel Halksworth	GBR	00:47:56	05:00:23	03:03:20	08:55:11
2	Fraser Cartmell	GBR	00:48:15	04:59:30	03:15:45	09:07:00
3	Paul Hawkins	GBR	00:52:39	05:02:38	03:11:18	09:10:50

Female Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Eimear Mullan	IRL	01:03:19	05:42:25	03:18:32	10:08:44
2	Amanda Stevens	USA	00:48:19	05:44:46	03:39:07	10:16:57
3	Annett Kamenz	GER	01:04:02	05:46:56	03:23:23	10:21:58

Course Records

Leg	Gender	Record	Athlete	Date
Total	overall	08:24:34	Aaron Farlow	2011-07-31
Swim	overall	00:43:35	Fraser Cartmell	2010-08-01
Bike	overall	04:45:31	Frank Heldoorn	2006-08-16
Run	overall	02:41:46	Aaron Farlow	2011-07-31
Total	female	09:19:04	Kristin Moeller	2011-07-31
Swim	female	00:45:34	Dede Griesbauer	2006-08-16
Bike	female	05:19:03	Dede Griesbauer	2006-08-16
Run	female	02:41:57	Kristin Moeller	2011-07-31

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM UK is 02:35.

Race Adjustments for IM UK

Year	Adjustment	Swim Adj.	Bike Adj.	Run Adj.	# of Athletes	Rating	Swim Rating	Bike Rating	Run Rating
2005	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	4	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a
2006	09:29	05:21	04:21	03:24	18	09:29	05:21	04:21	03:24
2007	08:38	03:24	-04:17	10:22	28	09:04	04:23	00:02	06:53
2008	-02:58	01:14	-13:56	04:20	21	05:03	03:20	-04:37	06:02
2009	01:23	-03:27	-10:14	12:33	16	04:08	01:38	-06:01	07:39
2010	-02:17	04:49	-23:29	11:21	12	02:51	02:16	-09:31	08:24
2011	08:31	05:05	-14:11	24:23	15	03:48	02:44	-10:18	11:04
2012	-04:41	00:04	-09:49	00:46	8	02:35	02:22	-10:14	09:35

KPR points and Price Money

IM UK has 1000 KPR points for the winner. It has a total price purse of 25k$.

Male Race Participants

Rank	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Rank	Swim Rating	Bike Rating	Run Rating
1	Joe Skipper	GBR	08:40:17	08:42:47	63	00:53:11	04:40:37	03:03:13
2	James McCurdy	USA	08:41:52	08:44:23	70	00:54:40	04:39:58	03:08:40
3	Scott Neyedli	GBR	08:46:27	08:48:59	91	00:50:44	04:53:45	03:02:29
4	Dorian Wagner	GER	08:47:10	08:49:42	98	00:48:53	04:51:38	03:07:11
5	Daniel Halksworth	GBR	08:49:37	08:52:10	108	00:47:43	04:49:38	03:09:27
6	Fraser Cartmell	GBR	08:52:16	08:54:50	122	00:47:57	04:43:17	03:17:51
7	Stephen Bayliss	GBR	08:52:32	08:55:06	124	00:47:59	04:50:45	03:06:29
8	Joel Jameson	GBR	08:53:50	08:56:24	132	00:57:13	04:57:12	03:01:49
9	Teemu Lemmettylae	FIN	08:56:38	08:59:13	148	00:56:14	04:54:34	03:03:06
10	Jens Kaiser	GER	08:57:50	09:00:25	160	00:58:30	04:47:53	03:12:07
11	James Brown	GBR	09:17:58	09:20:39	288	01:01:30	05:02:15	03:13:32
12	Martin Cain	GBR	09:40:08	09:42:55	418	00:57:30	05:10:05	03:27:45
13	Harry Wiltshire	GBR	10:30:09	10:33:11	624	00:47:51	05:07:18	04:33:08
	Cedric Lassonde	FRA	n/a	unrated	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated

Female Race Participants

With only six professional women on the start list, this looks like a great chance for late entries:

Rank	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Swim Rating	Bike Rating	Run Rating	Rank
1	Lucy Gossage	GBR	09:21:20	09:24:02	00:57:33	05:16:27	03:07:23	13
2	Bella Bayliss	GBR	09:37:56	09:40:43	00:55:41	05:19:18	03:19:06	48
3	Joanna Carritt	GBR	10:17:07	10:20:05	01:03:03	05:31:01	03:39:04	167
4	Bethan Fowler	GBR	11:11:33	11:14:47	01:03:49	06:02:49	03:56:12	239
	Amy Forshaw		n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a
	Laura Bostock		n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

Daniel Halksworth is back to defend his title, but he faces strong competition from a lot of other fast and/or experienced athletes:

Dorian Wagner: 30% (2-1)
Stephen Bayliss: 22% (4-1)
Scott Neyedli: 15% (6-1)
Joel Jameson: 9% (10-1)
Teemu Lemmettylae: 7% (13-1)
Fraser Cartmell: 5% (18-1)
Daniel Halksworth: 5% (20-1)
Joe Skipper: 4% (24-1)
James McCurdy: 3% (37-1)

Female Race Participants

There is a similar story on the women’s side: “Upcoming” athlete (Lucy Gossage with two fast race results from Barcelona) vs. experience (Bella Bayliss, Jo Carritt):

Bella Bayliss: 48% (1-1)
Lucy Gossage: 35% (2-1)
Joanna Carritt: 12% (7-1)
Bethan Fowler: 2% (55-1)

Results for Joe Skipper (GBR)

Race	Date	Swim	Bike	Run	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
Challenge Barcelona	2012-09-30	00:54:08	04:28:14	02:58:38	08:23:57	08:42:47	08:42:47	5

Results for James McCurdy (USA)

Race	Date	Swim	Bike	Run	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM Florida	2012-11-03	00:57:49	04:19:17	03:06:45	08:29:04	08:44:23	08:44:23	9

Results for Scott Neyedli (GBR)

Race	Date	Swim	Bike	Run	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
Challenge Henley	2012-09-16	00:52:18	04:52:37	02:55:24	08:44:37	08:52:09	08:48:59	5
IM Arizona	2011-11-19	00:51:37	04:32:15	03:01:06	08:29:03	08:41:48	08:48:23	11
IM Australia	2011-05-01				08:47:16	08:51:21	08:49:31	4
IM Western Australia	2010-12-05	00:47:44	04:44:24	02:59:05	08:34:45	08:40:33	08:49:13	7
IM Canada	2010-08-29	00:48:59	04:52:15	02:56:37	08:41:36	08:49:28	08:50:47	6
IM Australia	2010-03-28				08:27:58	08:35:43	08:51:02	2
IM Western Australia	2009-12-05	00:47:24	04:37:30	02:52:51	08:17:47	08:29:08	08:54:21	2
IM Lanzarote	2009-05-23	00:50:15	05:11:52	02:55:44	09:04:29	08:55:22	09:00:36	6
IM UK	2008-09-07	00:51:33	05:11:51	02:57:41	09:04:30	09:01:30	09:02:00	2
IM New Zealand	2008-03-01	00:49:25	05:00:08	03:05:35	09:00:17	09:06:02	09:02:08	10
IM Hawaii	2007-10-13	00:58:01	04:56:40	03:05:31	09:04:48	09:02:37	09:00:54	31
IM UK	2007-08-19	00:47:07	04:56:55	02:48:32	08:35:57	08:44:12	09:00:13	1
IM South Africa	2007-03-18	01:02:03	04:59:19	03:19:19	09:20:43	09:10:49	09:10:10	7
IM Switzerland	2006-07-02	00:52:32	04:58:15	03:03:52	08:57:29	09:09:22	09:09:22	10

Results for Dorian Wagner (GER)

Race	Date	Swim	Bike	Run	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM Sweden	2012-08-18	00:48:38	04:26:31	02:49:49	08:08:06	08:34:03	08:49:42	2
Challenge Roth	2012-07-08	00:47:40	04:44:26	02:45:04	08:19:47	08:31:48	08:56:02	7
Challenge Barcelona	2011-10-02	00:48:50	04:37:56	03:41:48	09:11:48	09:21:34	09:11:42	19
IM Austria	2011-07-03	00:46:50	04:44:45	03:00:37	08:37:01	09:01:05	09:01:05	8

Results for Daniel Halksworth (GBR)

Race	Date	Swim	Bike	Run	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM Germany	2013-07-07	00:46:05	04:34:04	03:05:57	08:30:07	08:43:52	08:52:10	16
IM Wales	2012-09-16	00:44:07	05:15:50	02:54:59	09:02:13	09:00:15	08:55:47	4
IM UK	2012-07-22	00:47:56	05:00:23	03:03:20	08:55:11	08:50:33	08:53:25	1
IM Regensburg	2012-06-17	00:45:05	04:52:18	03:08:59	08:50:38	08:56:22	08:56:22	6

Results for Fraser Cartmell (GBR)

Race	Date	Swim	Bike	Run	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM Germany	2013-07-07	00:46:13	04:34:26	03:15:23	08:40:21	08:54:23	08:54:50	24
IM UK	2012-07-22	00:48:15	04:59:30	03:15:45	09:07:00	09:02:15	08:55:01	2
IM Arizona	2011-11-19	00:48:44	04:28:00	03:29:03	08:50:14	09:03:31	08:51:23	25
IM Hawaii	2010-10-09	00:51:26	04:39:46	03:12:01	08:47:45	08:47:17	08:42:49	29
IM UK	2010-08-01	00:43:35	05:02:48	02:49:56	08:40:18	08:38:06	08:38:06	1

Results for Stephen Bayliss (GBR)

Race	Date	Swim	Bike	Run	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
Challenge Roth	2013-07-14	00:46:03	04:39:56	03:09:00	08:38:00	08:56:43	08:55:06	14
IM Lanzarote	2013-05-18	00:47:45	05:18:58	03:47:40	10:00:31	09:40:40	08:54:58	10
Challenge Barcelona	2012-09-30	00:48:01	04:35:04	04:19:27	09:44:39	10:06:29	08:51:11	45
Challenge Henley	2012-09-16	00:48:39	04:54:53	02:42:43	08:29:31	08:36:50	08:45:36	1
Challenge Roth	2012-07-08	00:47:24	04:32:15	02:50:52	08:13:01	08:24:52	08:46:18	5
IM Lanzarote	2012-05-19	00:48:01	05:05:40	02:54:07	08:53:37	08:37:14	08:48:02	2
Challenge Henley	2011-09-18	00:48:01	04:46:07	03:07:27	08:44:31	08:43:08	08:48:57	4
Challenge Vichy	2011-08-21	00:50:20	04:36:27	03:14:48	08:45:28	08:39:24	08:49:23	1
Challenge Kopenhagen	2011-08-01	00:45:22	04:35:29	03:07:12	08:34:52	08:57:46	08:50:10	8
IM Austria	2011-07-03	00:46:41	04:35:08	02:50:29	08:16:47	08:39:55	08:49:32	5
IM Cozumel	2010-11-28				09:04:07	09:13:56	08:50:24	18
IM UK	2010-08-01	00:43:37	05:09:32	02:49:35	08:46:19	08:44:06	08:48:28	2
IM Austria	2010-07-04	00:47:41	04:35:01	03:04:31	08:31:07	08:41:21	08:48:49	6
IM South Africa	2010-04-25	00:47:39	04:48:32	03:01:12	08:40:28	08:45:29	08:49:27	5
IM Hawaii	2009-10-10	00:50:58	05:08:13	03:16:55	09:19:56	09:07:21	08:49:49	45
IM UK	2009-08-02	00:51:13	05:04:50	02:47:43	08:48:30	08:49:52	08:48:22	2
IM Austria	2009-07-05	00:47:32	04:32:32	02:53:20	08:17:06	08:31:13	08:48:15	3
IM Lanzarote	2009-05-23	00:50:13	05:11:24	02:54:38	09:02:15	08:53:11	08:49:46	5
IM South Africa	2009-04-05	00:47:38	04:48:39	03:07:42	08:47:26	09:02:19	08:49:27	4
IM New Zealand	2009-03-07	00:47:55	04:44:14	03:02:15	08:38:29	08:45:47	08:48:10	6
IM Hawaii	2008-10-11	00:51:41	04:51:58	03:02:01	08:49:38	08:42:35	08:48:25	18
IM UK	2008-09-07	00:45:55	05:09:05	02:56:05	08:53:59	08:51:03	08:49:03	1
IM Austria	2008-07-13	00:46:03	04:39:38	02:44:33	08:13:53	08:29:59	08:48:49	2
IM South Africa	2008-04-13	00:47:29	04:38:20	02:51:02	08:18:23	08:29:25	08:51:10	1
IM New Zealand	2008-03-01	00:47:08	04:49:48	02:55:29	08:37:03	08:42:33	08:54:03	4
IM Western Australia	2007-12-01	00:48:18	04:35:09	02:54:23	08:17:50	08:40:02	08:55:44	5
IM Florida	2007-11-03	00:49:21	04:41:14	02:57:19	08:30:59	08:49:28	08:58:13	4
IM UK	2007-08-19	00:47:04	04:57:01	02:51:10	08:38:09	08:46:26	08:59:49	2
IM Brasil	2007-05-27	00:49:15	04:54:05	02:53:42	08:37:02	08:46:40	09:02:37	5
IM Florida	2006-11-04	00:50:34	04:53:23	02:56:42	08:43:41	08:55:47	09:06:28	4
IM Brasil	2006-05-28	00:45:46	04:47:49	03:01:27	08:35:01	08:49:18	09:09:14	4
IM Arizona	2006-04-09	00:49:29	04:44:03	03:23:48	09:00:38	09:03:16	09:15:09	14
IM Florida	2005-11-05	00:49:18	04:48:36	03:02:18	08:47:06	09:00:23	09:19:54	6
IM UK	2005-08-21	00:45:45	05:25:30	03:01:03	09:15:14	09:15:14	09:30:35	4
IM Lanzarote	2005-06-04	00:49:51	05:28:37	03:25:36	09:46:55	09:46:55	09:46:55	12

Results for Joel Jameson (GBR)

Race	Date	Swim	Bike	Run	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
Challenge Henley	2012-09-16	00:57:48	04:47:20	02:42:10	08:31:03	08:38:24	08:56:24	2
IM Coeur d’Alene	2012-06-24	01:01:36	05:05:37	02:59:26	09:09:52	09:10:02	09:06:00	6
IM Melbourne	2012-03-24	00:58:28	04:53:21	03:03:44	08:59:28	09:07:11	09:04:28	23
IM Florida	2011-11-05	00:56:46	04:36:28	02:56:55	08:35:31	08:55:38	09:03:00	11
IM Lanzarote	2011-05-21	00:52:57	05:11:27	02:51:12	09:01:48	08:51:15	09:10:03	4
IM UK	2005-08-21	00:57:57	05:46:56	03:57:34	10:48:13	10:48:13	10:48:13	12

Results for Teemu Lemmettylae (FIN)

Race	Date	Swim	Bike	Run	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM Sweden	2012-08-18	00:58:39	04:25:48	02:53:39	08:21:51	08:48:31	08:59:13	9
Challenge Roth	2012-07-08	00:55:54	04:46:48	02:54:23	08:40:48	08:53:19	09:01:46	12
Challenge Vichy	2011-08-21	01:00:37	04:37:53	03:06:32	08:49:41	08:43:34	09:04:17	2
IM Germany	2011-07-24	00:53:06	04:46:15	02:53:06	08:36:36	08:42:49	09:10:33	10
Challenge Barcelona	2010-10-03	00:55:39	04:35:40	03:15:00	08:50:44	09:05:08	09:22:12	15
IM Coeur d’Alene	2009-06-21	00:59:52	05:13:07	03:21:51	09:40:23	09:50:01	09:30:44	14
IM Lanzarote	2008-05-24	00:51:59	05:22:59	02:55:50	09:18:53	09:07:16	09:20:34	9
IM Hawaii	2007-10-13	00:59:38	05:15:44	03:16:43	09:37:54	09:35:35	09:28:57	50
IM Lanzarote	2007-05-20	00:55:42	05:33:47	02:57:47	09:34:09	09:21:30	09:21:30	9

Results for Jens Kaiser (GER)

Race	Date	Swim	Bike	Run	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
Challenge Henley	2012-09-16	00:57:46	04:46:58	03:13:27	09:02:41	09:10:29	09:00:25	10
IM Regensburg	2012-06-17	00:57:00	04:43:28	02:58:48	08:43:57	08:49:37	08:49:37	4

Results for James Brown (GBR)

Race	Date	Swim	Bike	Run	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM Austria	2013-06-30	00:55:41	04:50:17	03:06:14	08:57:30	09:20:39	09:20:39	26

Results for Martin Cain (GBR)

Race	Date	Swim	Bike	Run	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM Germany	2013-07-07	00:56:32	04:59:25	03:15:47	09:17:29	09:32:31	09:42:55	38
IM Lanzarote	2013-05-18	00:59:13	05:52:06	03:15:18	10:16:39	09:56:16	09:47:03	12
IM Wales	2012-09-16	00:51:28	05:30:22	03:27:50	09:58:21	09:56:10	09:41:21	14
IM UK	2012-07-22	00:54:53	05:07:18	03:24:09	09:30:48	09:25:51	09:25:51	5

Results for Harry Wiltshire (GBR)

Race	Date	Swim	Bike	Run	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM Wales	2012-09-16	00:44:07	05:33:54	04:08:41	10:35:30	10:33:11	10:33:11	16

Results for Cedric Lassonde (FRA)

Race

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Bike

Run

Total

Adjusted

Rating

Rank in Race

Results for Lucy Gossage (GBR)

Race	Date	Swim	Bike	Run	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
Challenge Barcelona	2012-09-30	00:57:30	04:55:47	03:02:57	08:58:43	09:18:50	09:24:02	1
Challenge Barcelona	2011-10-02	00:59:34	05:08:53	03:08:33	09:21:01	09:30:57	09:30:57	4

Results for Bella Bayliss (GBR)

Race	Date	Swim	Bike	Run	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
Challenge Henley	2012-09-16	00:56:16	05:25:42	03:12:22	09:40:23	09:48:44	09:40:43	2
IM Switzerland	2012-07-15	00:59:45	05:05:26	03:16:50	09:25:54	09:32:02	09:39:51	2
IM Lanzarote	2012-05-19	00:56:12	05:47:54	03:14:06	10:06:12	09:47:35	09:40:45	2
IM UK	2010-08-01	00:50:17	05:48:26	03:22:43	10:06:52	10:04:18	09:39:54	2
IM Lanzarote	2010-05-22	00:52:38	05:41:15	03:34:43	10:16:47	10:08:50	09:37:58	3
IM Cozumel	2009-11-29	00:50:01	05:13:32	03:14:34	09:22:34	09:26:44	09:35:28	1
IM Florida	2009-11-07		04:56:20	03:11:08	09:13:52	09:31:03	09:36:08	3
IM UK	2009-08-02	00:59:20	05:26:18	03:01:09	09:34:00	09:35:29	09:36:32	1
IM Austria	2009-07-05	00:54:04	04:49:42	03:00:21	08:50:13	09:05:16	09:36:38	1
IM Lanzarote	2009-05-23	00:56:00	05:46:37	03:04:06	09:54:58	09:45:01	09:39:20	1
IM New Zealand	2009-03-07	00:55:10	05:17:41	03:22:28	09:41:04	09:49:15	09:38:49	5
IM Florida	2008-11-01	00:54:54	04:59:05	03:08:07	09:07:48	09:29:26	09:37:50	1
IM Hawaii	2008-10-11	00:59:02	05:21:46	03:08:31	09:34:08	09:26:30	09:38:37	7
IM UK	2008-09-07	00:53:26	05:33:38	03:16:27	09:49:07	09:45:52	09:39:50	1
IM Austria	2008-07-13	00:53:11	04:48:13	03:04:50	08:51:17	09:08:36	09:39:10	2
IM Lanzarote	2008-05-24	00:56:17	05:48:14	03:09:20	10:02:30	09:49:59	09:42:42	1
IM South Africa	2008-04-13	00:55:38	05:19:01	03:10:56	09:27:48	09:40:23	09:41:47	1
IM New Zealand	2008-03-01	00:53:11	05:11:00	03:15:34	09:25:33	09:31:34	09:41:59	4
IM Western Australia	2007-12-01	00:55:33	05:05:13	03:13:38	09:14:24	09:39:07	09:43:34	3
IM Florida	2007-11-03	00:55:31	05:00:54	03:11:58	09:13:34	09:33:35	09:44:19	4
IM UK	2007-08-19	00:49:45	05:31:16	03:10:01	09:36:13	09:45:26	09:46:23	1
IM Brasil	2007-05-27	00:58:03	05:09:04	03:13:02	09:20:09	09:30:35	09:46:36	3
IM South Africa	2007-03-18	01:07:58	05:25:04	03:15:37	09:48:41	09:38:18	09:50:49	3
IM Florida	2006-11-04	00:58:27	05:14:02	03:11:40	09:28:28	09:41:36	09:55:00	1
IM Brasil	2006-05-28	00:54:43	05:12:19	03:32:13	09:39:14	09:55:18	10:00:43	4
IM Florida	2005-11-05	01:02:21	05:05:02	03:22:04	09:33:09	09:47:35	10:04:00	1
IM UK	2005-08-21	00:56:39	05:55:28	03:25:21	10:21:25	10:21:25	10:21:25	3

Results for Joanna Carritt (GBR)

Race	Date	Swim	Bike	Run	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM Germany	2013-07-07	00:56:45	05:20:04	03:28:21	09:50:16	10:06:11	10:20:05	15
IM South Africa	2013-04-14	01:06:53	05:13:21	03:51:36	10:16:59	10:23:23	10:21:49	11
IM Western Australia	2012-12-09	01:08:44	05:11:48	03:43:41	10:09:14	10:23:38	10:21:36	8
IM Wales	2012-09-16	00:57:38	05:55:01	03:09:12	10:12:34	10:10:20	10:21:20	3
Challenge Roth	2012-07-08	01:00:23	05:17:54	03:42:52	10:04:53	10:19:25	10:22:56	17
IM UK	2011-07-31	00:55:21	05:53:08	03:05:59	09:59:21	10:08:48	10:23:30	4
IM Lanzarote	2011-05-21	00:56:35	06:06:02	03:59:33	11:09:59	10:56:57	10:25:33	7
Challenge Wanaka	2011-01-15				10:57:21	10:21:40	10:20:47	3
IM Western Australia	2010-12-05	01:04:42	05:28:49	03:34:09	10:11:13	10:18:06	10:20:38	6
IM Hawaii	2010-10-09	01:13:01	05:37:58	03:26:48	10:23:05	10:22:32	10:21:06	35
IM UK	2010-08-01	00:58:16	06:03:05	03:09:28	10:16:22	10:13:46	10:20:48	3
IM France	2010-06-27	01:04:27	05:29:45	03:26:15	10:07:44	10:19:53	10:22:34	8
IM Lanzarote	2010-05-22	01:02:31	05:46:52	03:26:34	10:24:30	10:16:27	10:23:26	7
IM Lanzarote	2009-05-23	01:03:57	06:01:55	03:30:45	10:45:32	10:34:44	10:26:38	7
IM Germany	2008-07-06				09:43:19	10:11:06	10:22:23	8
IM Switzerland	2007-06-24	01:04:57	05:14:53	03:34:51	09:57:28	10:15:43	10:30:06	8
IM Lanzarote	2007-05-20	01:07:17	05:57:23	03:45:15	10:59:25	10:44:53	10:44:53	7

Results for Bethan Fowler (GBR)

Race	Date	Swim	Bike	Run	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM Wales	2012-09-16	00:57:15	06:19:28	03:27:14	10:52:53	10:50:31	11:14:47	7
IM UK	2012-07-22	01:05:33	06:30:27	04:04:18	11:46:16	11:40:09	11:40:09	5

Results for Amy Forshaw ()

Race

Date

Swim

Bike

Run

Total

Adjusted

Rating

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Results for Laura Bostock ()

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Date

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Bike

Run

Total

Adjusted

Rating

Rank in Race

IM Switzerland 2013 – Analyzing Results

February 26, 2017

Race Conditions

Wow – this year’s IM Switzerland was really slow. I calculated a total adjustment of -10:02. The non-wetsuit swim and the bike were just a bit slower than the last year, but the run (in a severe heat) had an adjustment of -4:12 – more than 10 minutes slower than last year. A lot of people ran into issues on the run: T2 leader Jan Van Berkel had to withdraw with a heat stroke, and there is a lot of red in the run column (indicating slower than expected – even after the adjustment).

Male Race Results

Ronnie Schildknecht continued his non-Kona winning streak: As far as I know he is the first athlete winning an Ironman race seven times in a row. Ivan Rana and Per Bittner round out the podium (also grabbing Kona slots).

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time	Diff to expected
1	Ronnie Schildknecht	SWI	00:55:59	04:32:16	03:01:59	08:33:39	-03:21
2	Ivan Rana	ESP	00:52:37	04:45:57	02:59:09	08:40:55	-04:11
3	Per Bittner	GER	00:55:47	04:49:07	02:57:54	08:46:23	-03:54
4	Maxim Kriat	UKR	00:55:55	04:46:58	03:01:26	08:47:54	05:37
5	Marko Albert	EST	00:52:18	04:52:10	03:02:10	08:50:15	01:14
6	Cyril Viennot	FRA	00:55:50	04:49:27	03:03:17	08:52:24	07:04
7	David Plese	SVN	01:00:20	04:43:48	03:08:58	08:57:16	11:44
8	Mike Schifferle	SUI	01:02:52	04:46:14	03:07:21	09:01:13	-12:49
9	Petr Vabrousek	CZE	01:01:16	04:56:02	03:10:15	09:12:26	08:28
10	Joseph Spindler	GER	01:08:30	04:48:55	03:14:35	09:15:32	01:53
11	Ben Cotter	CAN	01:01:09	04:54:21	03:15:56	09:16:02	-07:38
12	Michael Wetzel	GER	01:04:52	04:52:16	03:30:01	09:31:46	12:07
13	Jarda Brynda	CZE	00:55:54	05:10:23	03:24:08	09:35:02	04:58
14	Ciro Violin	BRA	00:56:06	05:15:48	03:37:11	09:56:19	40:36
15	Martin Lamontagne Lacasse	CAN	01:00:18	05:17:39	03:39:51	10:04:03	24:55
16	Josef Krivanek	CZE	01:08:13	05:07:47	03:58:09	10:19:40	11:15
17	Daniel Mueller	GER	00:56:01	05:04:03	04:28:44	10:32:48	53:04
18	Juha Laitinen	FIN	01:10:06	05:51:23	04:01:53	11:09:59	01:03
19	Jacson Kluts	NZL	01:09:35	05:53:07	04:30:57	11:42:20	56:27
20	Andrej Palinsky	SVK	01:28:43	05:14:29	04:51:39	11:43:35	07:12
21	Josef Svoboda	CZE	01:23:06	05:53:48	04:26:27	11:54:17	07:35

Female Race Results

On the women’s side, late entry Anja Beranek overcame her Frankfurt DNF by winning in Switzerland. IM-newbies Celine Schärer and Emma Pooley finished well after smart races in 2nd and 5th. Erika Csomor rounded out the podium, while Sofie Goos, Rebecca Hoschke and Sara Gross grabbed enough points for a Kona slot.

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time	Diff to expected
1	Anja Beranek	GER	00:58:21	04:56:23	03:22:55	09:21:31	-16:25
2	Céline Schärer	SUI	00:52:38	05:06:57	03:24:09	09:28:28	n/a
3	Erika Csomor	HUN	01:01:21	05:10:12	03:17:24	09:33:17	-07:19
4	Sofie Goos	BEL	01:01:18	05:17:05	03:16:57	09:39:14	-12:24
5	Emma Pooley	GBR	01:08:16	04:59:53	03:29:15	09:44:57	n/a
6	Stephanie Jones	USA	01:08:16	05:07:49	03:26:34	09:47:07	-24:18
7	Rebecca Hoschke	AUS	01:08:23	05:20:09	03:15:25	09:48:14	-08:40
8	Sara Gross	CAN	01:01:23	05:33:58	03:16:25	09:55:48	-04:11
9	Linda Schuecker	GER	01:12:05	05:15:19	03:25:01	09:56:20	-38:51
10	Joyce Wolfe	IRL	01:07:23	05:22:11	03:28:45	10:03:22	-16:42
11	Monique Grossrieder	SWI	01:10:13	05:25:01	03:34:59	10:14:34	08:41
12	Charisa Wernick	USA	01:07:47	05:34:19	03:37:16	10:23:58	17:00
13	Anna Halasz	HUN	01:15:07	05:23:24	03:52:09	10:35:02	n/a
14	Simona Vykoukalova	CZE	01:14:52	05:33:48	03:42:28	10:35:43	-12:13
15	Megumi Shigaki	JPN	01:07:27	05:20:47	04:15:18	10:48:11	-27:01
16	Conny Dauben	GER	01:14:19	05:32:22	04:04:20	10:56:06	-14:41
17	Zsuzsanna Harsanyi	HUN	01:07:27	05:46:26	04:09:16	11:09:01	-06:36

Unofficial KPR for Women’s July cutoff

July 29, 2013

After IM Switzerland, here is an excerpt from my unofficial update to the KPR standings:

Rank	Name	Points
12	Erica Csomor	6.310
17	Sofie Goos	5.940
27	~~Rebeccah Hoschke~~	~~5.190~~
28	~~Sara Gross~~	~~5.110~~
2830	Amy Marsh	5.095
2931	Ashley Clifford	4.985
30	Sara Gross	4.830
31	Rebeccah Hoschke	4.740
32	Charisa Wernick	4.700
33	Britta Martin	4.650
34	Sarah Piampiano	4.530
35	Kathleen Calkins	4.490
36	Stephanie Jones	4.280
37	Rebekah Keat	4.160
38	Liz Blatchford	3.930

Update: Anna Ross noticed an error in the points for Rebeccah Hoschke. (I had one race too much for her. I’ve made the same error for Sara Gross.) Rebccah moves down to #31 and will probably get the last July spot. However, she is just 40 points ahead of Charisa Wernick, so any changes in the Switzerland results could result in more changes in the KPR standings.

Remember that the cutoff line comes at #31: There are 28 qualifiers, plus 2 automatic qualifiers (Rinnie and Leanda), and Kelly Williamson in #29 who is not interested in racing Kona this year (she also hasn’t validated). This means that I have Ashley Clifford as the last July qualifier.

A word of warning: I may have some errors in my numbers, the results are unofficial etc. As far as I can see, the ongoing races (at the time of this writing) in Lake Placid and Calgary are not going to change things – but I may have missed someone.

Congrats to all those who qualified and “have a great race” to all those that are going for an August slot.

Do Women have to race more often than Men in order to qualify for Kona?

July 27, 2013

As women will need more KPR points in order to qualify for Kona, the question has been asked if women have to race more often than men for a Kona slot. This post compares men’s and women’s number of Ironman races, KPR points and points per race.

Number of Ironman Races

Here’s a graph that shows the number of races for men and women:

MenWomen2013

The red line shows the data for women, the blue line the men’s data. On the x-axis, the graph shows the position in the KPR ranking, the y-axis the average number of IM-distance races that the first x number of athletes have races. (E.g. the data points at 15 show that the men and women between number 1 and 15 in the KPR rankings have raced a similar average number of races, about 2.6 races.)

At first the two graphs diverge a bit. This is caused by a few “outliers” of well-placed women with a large number of races:

Gina Crawford: 6 races
Meredith Kessler: 4 races

At about the July cutoff place for women (#28) the graphs are closer together, but women have raced slightly more often. The difference is about 0.2 races – pretty small, and probably caused again by a few outliers (Mirjam Weerd: 5 races, Mareen Hufe and Ashley Clifford 4 races).

After that, the graphs are very close together and the differences are only statistical blips. My interpretation of the data: There is no meaningful difference between the men’s and women’s number of races.

Number of KPR Points

The explanation of the different cutoff numbers for men and women is very simple: It is caused by the women’s cutoff occurring at #28, while the men’s cutoff occurs at #40 – obviously you need more points to place 28th than to place 40th.

But then the next question comes up: Is there a difference between the number of points required 28th (or 40th) between men and women? Here’s a graph that can help answer that question:

MenWomenPoints2013

Gain, the graph shows the place in the KPR rankings on the x-axis. ON the y-axis, it shows the number of points required to rank that high.

There is a clear separation of the two graphs around the women’s July cutoff of #28, it’s almost 900 points. The graphs narrow again at the #40 spot and stay pretty close together until about #60.

My interpretation: Women placed around #28 have a larger number of points than their male counterparts.

Putting both observations together

From the two graphs shown, we have two observations for the KPR spots around #28:

Women and men race about the same number of races for their points.
Women have a larger number of points than men.

There is only one way I can see that these two observations can both be true: Women must be making more points per race. So here is a third graph:

MenWomenPointsPerRace2013

The graph displays the average number of points per race on the y-axis. After the initial movements in the graph settle down, we can indeed see that women make more points per race: The difference around the #28 spot is about 150 points per race.

I’m assuming that this means that the women’s fields are not quite as deep as the men’s, so it is a bit easier to make more points for the women. However, the difference is quite small – 150 points is about the difference of 2 spots (5th place and 7th place, 6th to 8th etc) in a P-2000 race or 4 spots in a P-1000 race.

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