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2017 KPR Observer Now Available

2017 Title ThumbI have just released the 2017 edition of the KPR Observer, following Kona qualifying for the Professional athletes.

The Kona Pro Ranking (or KPR for short) is the system used to determine which Professional triathletes qualify for the Ironman World Championships in Kona. The 2017 KPR Observer consists of an Initial Information Package about the KPR and ongoing updates during the season.

The Initial Information Package (delivered at the time of purchase) contains:

  • a description of how the KPR works in qualifying Pros for Kona
  • changes to the 2017 rules and their implications
  • base projections for the men’s and women’s cutoff
  • graphs and descriptions of the current KPR standings

During the season, there will be at least six EMail Updates (and probably ten) about the KPR Standings, who is already in, who is close to qualifying, how many slots are still open and updated estimates of where the cutoffs will occur.

To give you a short glimpse of the material in the KPR Observer, here is a look at the women’s and men’s KPR rankings at the end of the 2016 racing season:

If you want to qualify as a Pro, coach a Pro athlete, write about professional Ironman racing or are otherwise interested in the KPR, this is must-read information! The time you’ll save with the KPR Observer is easily worth the price of 29$ for the full season.

(If you are a Professional athlete looking to qualify for Kona, please send an email to thorsten@trirating.com to receive information about a complimentary copy.)

Order today at https://gum.co/2017KPR or click on the button below:

Get 2017 KPR Observer

Ironman Western Australia 2016 – Analyzing Results

Race Conditions & Course Records

As always, IM Western Australia has been a fast course. Last year there was some wind that lead to a slower swim and a “less fast” bike, this year’s conditions were quick even for WA (adjustment of 17:32 leading to a new course rating of 13:57). Not surprisingly, we’ve seen a large number of fast results.

First of all, Terenzo Bozzone had a fantastic race and posted a new overall course record with a balanced race. He improved on Luke McKenzie’s time from last year, which was also the fastest Ironman on Australian soil. In addition, Terenzo improved on the Australian continental record (meaning Australia and New Zealand) – until today it was held by Chris McCormack (7:54 from Challenge Roth 2007). Andy Potts’ 7:55:12 finish was a new US fastest time, he improved 10 seconds on Andy Starykowicz’s 7:55:22 from IM Florida 2013.

The female side saw some fast times as well. After IM Arizona this was another race where the Top 3 women finished under 9 hours – for Melissa, Mareen and Sarah it was the first time they finished that quick. Melissa also improved Britta Martin’s 2014 overall course record, and Mareen’s bike time was faster than her own bike course record by almost three minutes.

Male Race Results

So far Terenzo’s Ironman results haven’t been quite up to his stellar 70.3 racing, but there can be no doubt that he absolutely nailed Ironman Western Australia. It wasn’t a surprise to see him come out of the water close to the lead, but then he posted a massive new personal bike best: His 4:10 was more 20 minutes faster than ever before and gave him a solid lead in T2. In addition he almost posted a marathon PR (his 2:50 was just a minute off his best time from his first race at IM New Zealand 2009) to win his first Ironman race.

After a somewhat disappointing 11th place in Kona, Andy Potts showed that you shouldn’t write him off for a Kona podium just yet: He biked and ran faster than ever before, improving on his IM PR (dating back to IM Cozumel 2010) by 20 minutes. Even with Terenzo’s fantastic performance, he was able to keep the race interesting with a 2:44 marathon, slowly eating into the lead and closing the gap to less than four minutes at the end.

Nick Kastelein showed that training with Jan Frodeno (and as far as I know Terenzo as well) helped him developed into a good Ironman athlete. In only his second IM-distance race he finished on the podium in front of a number of Kona caliber athletes. Jens Petersen-Bach finished 4th after his DNF in Kona, while 2014 winner Denis Chevrot took 5th place.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected Prize Money
1 Terenzo Bozzone NZL 00:46:23 04:10:49 02:50:38 07:51:26 -26:28 US$ 10000
2 Andy Potts USA 00:46:21 04:20:05 02:44:41 07:55:12 -11:54 US$ 5000
3 Nick Kastelein AUS 00:46:10 04:22:12 02:53:01 08:05:24 -01:39 US$ 3250
4 Jens Petersen-Bach DEN 00:49:54 04:28:34 02:48:45 08:11:20 -09:29 US$ 2500
5 Denis Chevrot FRA 00:46:22 04:28:39 02:56:03 08:15:23 -03:56 US$ 1750
6 Esben Hovgaard DEN 00:50:02 04:25:31 02:58:21 08:18:00 -16:27 US$ 1250
7 Michael Fox AUS 00:46:17 04:29:58 02:57:55 08:18:07 -04:21 US$ 750
8 Konstantin Bachor GER 00:49:59 04:18:17 03:07:02 08:19:51 -05:12 US$ 500
9 Courtney Ogden AUS 00:50:03 04:31:00 03:01:45 08:27:46 00:42
10 Levi Maxwell AUS 00:53:08 04:38:11 02:52:59 08:28:28 -19:35
11 Giles Clayton AUS 00:47:40 04:33:04 03:02:40 08:28:40 n/a
12 Luke Martin AUS 00:50:11 04:30:52 03:06:44 08:32:10 -08:55
13 Jonathan Shearon USA 00:53:29 04:27:23 03:07:02 08:32:37 -00:11
14 Till Schramm GER 00:53:35 04:40:56 03:01:36 08:40:59 -20:45
15 Derek Cross AUS 00:49:56 04:37:18 03:10:34 08:42:51 n/a
16 Carl Read NZL 00:53:48 04:41:29 03:05:38 08:46:42 03:53
17 Petr Vabrousek CZE 00:56:58 04:47:29 03:18:08 09:07:50 21:28
18 Bryce McMaster NZL 00:49:59 05:31:33 03:34:12 10:03:21 n/a
19 Patrick Evoe USA 00:53:33 04:31:16 05:01:15 10:30:32 1:54:17
Matt Burton AUS 00:50:08 04:27:11 DNF
Matthew Pellow AUS 00:46:23 04:45:08 DNF
Vincent Depuiset FRA 01:09:47 06:02:57 DNF
Clayton Fettell AUS 00:46:10 DNF
Jeff Symonds CAN 00:50:03 DNF
Leigh Stabryla AUS 00:53:14 DNF
Allister Caird AUS 00:56:55 DNF
Michael Louys BEL 01:04:15 DNF

With his win (and points from 70.3 Champs) Terenzo is safe for a July slot. Andy Potts can also start to plan his 2017 season with a clear Kona focus. Nick Kastelein needs about another 500 points – a win in a P-500 70.3 is probably enough to qualify, but racing another Ironman race is likely a benefit if he want to go to Kona 2017.

Female Race Results

Just a minute behind after the swim Melissa Hauschildt quickly took the lead on the bike. Mareen Hufe exited the swim with an improved Sarah Piampiano and they rode together for some time before Mareen put down the hammer, gapped Sarah, closed the distance to Melissa and finally took the lead with a new bike course record time. But Melissa proved to be the better runner, re-taking the lead by the half marathon mark and winning in course record time – also improving her IM winning record to 4 wins and 1 DNF. Mareen kept the pressure up on the run, and she was less than three minutes behind in second place.

Even though she “only” finished third, Sarah is probably happy with her race: A good swim and the fastest run split gave her the first sub-9 finish of her career. At the end of the season Asa Lundstroem had another solid race, but she probably wasn’t fresh enough to finish higher up than in fourth place in the strong WA field. “Lisi” Gruber lost too much time on the bike to contend for more than fifth place.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected Prize Money
1 Melissa Hauschildt AUS 00:54:29 04:48:46 03:06:39 08:54:39 -05:53 US$ 10000
2 Mareen Hufe GER 00:59:12 04:41:32 03:12:25 08:57:36 -19:47 US$ 5000
3 Sarah Piampiano USA 00:59:11 04:49:29 03:05:13 08:58:51 -13:15 US$ 3250
4 Asa Lundstroem SWE 01:00:55 04:47:23 03:13:20 09:06:08 -05:36 US$ 2500
5 Elisabeth Gruber AUT 01:00:50 05:04:40 03:05:17 09:15:59 02:59 US$ 1750
6 Kym Coogan AUS 00:57:53 05:09:21 03:23:50 09:36:36 -06:13 US$ 1250
7 Vanessa Murray NZL 00:53:33 05:10:12 03:38:28 09:48:05 16:42 US$ 750
8 Tracy Morrison AUS 01:00:02 05:26:08 03:32:47 10:04:10 -01:02 US$ 500
9 Emi Sakai JPN 01:09:02 05:10:53 03:39:34 10:06:12 01:07
10 Georgia Stott AUS 00:53:27 05:22:59 03:49:06 10:12:16 n/a
11 Rahel Bellinga NED 01:06:58 05:00:28 04:02:04 10:16:11 10:55
Lauren Parker AUS 00:52:31 DNF

With regards to Kona slots, Mel, Sarah and Asa should be safe for a July slot (being able to use Kona or 70.3 Champs points), while Mareen still needs another podium result in an IM.

Data on Female Participation in Ironman Races

Every year there are announcements that record numbers of women are participating in Ironman races. This post checks the numbers behind these claims and offers some more data on female participation.

Number of Female Finishers

The last years before the Ironman World Championships in October, a number of press releases and posts claimed record numbers of female participants in Kona such as an Ironman press release from 2015 (“It will be the largest female field in the event’s history”) or a post by Triathlete magazine from 2016 (“That marks the largest female field ever at the Ironman World Championship”).

So here’s a look at the number of Female Finishers in Kona:

FemaleFinishersKona

There has been a steady climb in the last years from about 500 in 2008/09 to 697 in 2016. This growth in absolute numbers is not limited to Kona, here’s a graph showing the total number of female finishers in all Ironman races:

FemaleFinishersAllIM

For all Ironman races the growth is even more pronounced, female finisher numbers were pretty steady at about 7.000 between 2007 and 2009, the number of females in Ironman has more than doubled to almost 16.000 for the 2016 season.

Percentage of Female Finishers

While it’s great to see more and more women finish in Kona or an Ironman in general, absolute numbers are not indicative of women playing a bigger role in Ironman racing. For Kona, the number of females racing is mainly a result of the qualifying system (I’m sure there are a lot more men and women who’d love to race there), and for all Ironman races you can evaluate the growth of female finishers only in conjunction with the increased number of Ironman races per season. So here are graphs showing the percentage of females among the overall number of finishers, both for Kona and for all Ironman races:

PercentageKona

PercentageOverall

These graphs paint a less positive picture: While the share of females has been increasing in the last few years, that growth is relatively small: For Kona it has grown from about 27.5% between 2008 and 2011 to 30.2% this year, and the overall growth has been even smaller (from about 18% to 20% this year). Obviously, there is still a lot to accomplish before even close to 50% of Ironman finishers are females.

Regional Differences

In analyzing the data, I have noticed that there a lot of differences between races. The following graph shows the percentage of female finishers by continent, distinguishing between the North American, the European and “rest of the world” races:

PercentageContinents

Clearly, North America has the biggest share of female racers, while Europe has the smallest.

Breaking this down into individual races shows that there is surprisingly little “overlap” between these three groups, for example even the European race with the biggest percentage (IM Sweden with 14.7% of female finishers) has a lower share than all North American races, even the one with the lowest percentage (IM Louisville with 21.4%):

PercentageRaces

Outlook

The data shows large regional differences, and there are probably lots of others differences buried in the data (maybe between age groups or finishing times?). I haven’t found any detailed analysis of finisher data such as the graphs above (please let me know if they are out there), and I’d be interested in further analysis.

Also, I am not aware of a “good explanation” for these differences, but I hope that a discussion can lead to hints at how to further increase female participation in the future for existing races – and for new races as well. I hope this post helps in advancing the discussion.

Thank you to Russell Cox for supplying the data underlying the analysis and the graphs.

Ironman Cozumel 2016 – Analyzing Results

Race Conditions

This year IM Cozumel had the fastest conditions ever for that course, mainly on the bike (maybe not too much wind?). Winner Frederik Van Lierde posted a new course record and got pretty close to breaking 8 hours, while female swim leader (and eventual second place finisher) Lauren Brandon posted a new swim course record, improving on Bree Wee’s 2009 time.

Male Race Results

Frederik Van Lierde was among the first in T1, then posted a strong bike to be within seconds of the lead in T2. He then went on to win the race by posting the strongest run of the bike leaders, winning with a new course record time. Matt Russell ran through the field by posting the second fastest marathon of the day and as last year finished in second place. After winning his first Ironman at Mont Tremblant, Chris Leiferman had another solid race and claimed the last spot on the podium.

Frederik Van Lierde validated his AQ Kona slot and is the first athlete to be a secure Kona 2017 Pro participant. In addition to him Matt Russell has enough points to be safe for a Kona slot.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected Prize Money
1 Frederik Van Lierde BEL 00:43:46 04:22:37 02:52:42 08:03:09 -09:54 US$ 20000
2 Matthew Russell USA 00:48:20 04:21:28 02:51:18 08:04:24 -28:37 US$ 10000
3 Chris Leiferman USA 00:48:28 04:21:09 02:55:58 08:09:11 02:40 US$ 6500
4 Michael Weiss AUT 00:48:26 04:17:45 02:59:55 08:10:44 -07:51 US$ 4000
5 Chris McDonald AUS 00:48:44 04:21:08 03:02:35 08:15:59 -20:08 US$ 3000
6 Guilherme Manocchio BRA 00:47:18 04:26:14 03:01:23 08:19:26 -13:37 US$ 2000
7 Jozsef Major HUN 00:57:13 04:32:31 02:46:50 08:21:33 -22:34 US$ 1500
8 Karl-Johan Danielsson SWE 00:47:14 04:22:33 03:08:44 08:23:01 -24:44 US$ 1250
9 Miquel Blanchart Tinto ESP 00:44:09 04:39:53 02:57:03 08:24:44 -00:53 US$ 1000
10 Philipp Koutny SUI 00:48:16 04:32:43 03:04:22 08:29:16 n/a US$ 750
11 Barrett Brandon USA 00:43:37 04:41:02 03:10:14 08:39:39 07:02
12 Andrey Lyatskiy RUS 00:46:39 04:42:43 03:07:21 08:41:21 -07:50
13 Kevin Collington USA 00:43:46 04:40:48 03:17:46 08:45:52 28:11
14 Anton Blokhin UKR 00:46:36 04:42:53 03:14:42 08:48:22 12:30
15 Alan Carrillo MEX 00:51:32 04:48:09 03:10:22 08:54:46 n/a
16 Frederic Garcia FRA 00:57:05 04:51:53 03:03:51 08:58:05 -14:18
17 Scott Bradley USA 00:58:16 04:37:11 03:18:44 08:59:52 -17:49
18 Josep Vinolas ESP 00:51:24 04:45:11 03:19:44 09:00:20 08:29
19 Oliver Gonzalez MEX 00:46:32 05:05:38 03:10:55 09:08:07 -12:01
20 Jarrod Shoemaker USA 00:43:44 05:12:26 03:08:57 09:09:10 n/a
21 Jorge Vazquez MEX 00:48:21 04:57:52 03:34:21 09:26:48 -20:13
22 Gilian Oriet SUI 00:54:41 05:09:11 03:28:52 09:39:58 -10:24
23 Igor Amorelli BRA 00:43:41 04:23:09 04:31:06 09:41:32 1:13:49
24 Bruno Matheus BRA 00:47:11 05:13:42 03:35:16 09:41:32 n/a
25 Sergio Quezada MEX 00:48:18 05:08:53 03:41:42 09:44:17 -13:46
26 Eduardo Chong MEX 00:57:00 05:08:12 03:39:28 09:49:29 -04:13
27 Stephen Bayliss GBR 00:43:41 05:20:57 03:47:03 09:55:49 1:17:33
28 Derek Yorek USA 01:03:14 05:06:26 04:02:12 10:21:46 n/a
29 Rod De Kanel FRA 00:46:34 05:02:11 04:50:39 10:44:58 35:34
30 Scott Defilippis USA 00:51:54 04:56:29 05:08:10 11:02:05 1:10:02
Mark Oude Bennink NED 00:43:48 DNF
Alessandro Degasperi ITA 00:48:21 DNF
Trevor Delsaut FRA 00:48:25 DNF
Christopher Bagg USA 00:48:27 DNF

Female Race Results

Lauren Brandon was leading after the swim by almost five minutes, posting a new swim course record. She reached T2 together with the “Danish Duo” of Michelle Vesterby and Camilla Pedersen. Camilla was leading the race for most of the run, but eventually faded at the end and finished in third place. In her first IM finish in Texas Lauren was also leading into T1 and T2 but the struggled on the run (3:56). In Cozumel she ran a steady 3:23 and was able to finish in second place. The win went to Michelle Vesterby who had the best run of the leaders into T2, ending her 2016 racing year with her third Ironman win. Last year’s winner Corinne Abraham finished fourth after a long injury break – she posted the best marathon of the day and without a double flat towards the end of the bike she could have finished on the podium. Rachel McBride had a solid day to finish fifth in her first full Ironman race.

After her 6th place in Kona Michelle Vesterby has enough points to be safe for a Kona slot. Camilla Pedersen is close but needs a few more points, she should be fine with two good 70.3 results.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected Prize Money
1 Michelle Vesterby DEN 00:50:30 04:54:14 03:19:18 09:08:06 -01:57 US$ 20000
2 Lauren Brandon USA 00:45:43 04:58:52 03:23:53 09:12:43 n/a US$ 10000
3 Camilla Pedersen DEN 00:50:26 04:54:16 03:25:34 09:14:11 06:40 US$ 6500
4 Corinne Abraham GBR 00:56:48 05:10:41 03:07:44 09:19:14 09:52 US$ 4000
5 Rachel McBride CAN 00:53:06 04:59:14 03:32:42 09:29:33 n/a US$ 3000
6 Celine Schaerer SUI 00:50:35 05:18:02 03:23:50 09:37:20 16:25 US$ 2000
7 Kelly Fillnow USA 01:02:41 05:12:58 03:18:13 09:38:23 -08:15 US$ 1500
8 Nicole Valentine USA 01:00:58 05:20:26 03:17:22 09:43:26 -32:59 US$ 1250
9 Annett Finger GER 00:56:52 05:16:22 03:28:40 09:46:15 -12:09 US$ 1000
10 Lauren Capone USA 00:56:52 05:36:32 03:10:40 09:50:21 13:16 US$ 750
11 April Gellatly USA 00:53:10 05:12:11 03:43:07 09:53:46 -09:47
12 Palmira Alvarez MEX 01:02:54 05:18:54 03:32:07 09:58:13 -48:06
13 Amanda Wendorff USA 00:56:51 05:13:36 03:44:11 09:59:18 14:54
14 Neilia Bliss USA 01:02:49 05:22:16 03:49:48 10:20:35 09:29
15 Amelia McCracken USA 01:10:23 05:37:21 03:47:23 10:41:01 n/a
Molly Roohi USA 00:59:29 05:20:53 DNF
Caroline St-Pierre CAN 00:56:55 05:55:01 DNF
Amy Vantassel USA 01:02:47 05:53:04 DNF
Amber Ferreira USA 00:50:34 DNF
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