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Ironman Wisconsin 2014 (Sept 7th) – Predictions

Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2005 Andriy Yastrebov (UKR) 09:01:34 Ute Mueckel (GER) 10:11:22
2006 Markus Forster (GER) 09:07:24 Katja Schumacher (GER) 10:01:22
2007 Maik Twelsiek (GER) 08:52:49 Gina Crawford (NZL) 09:37:03
2008 Chris McDonald (AUS) 08:43:29 Hillary Biscay (USA) 09:47:25
2009 Raynard Tissink (ZAF) 08:45:19 Amy Marsh (USA) 09:43:59
2010 Joe Gambles (AUS) 08:38:32 Gina Crawford (NZL) 09:27:26
2011 Ezequiel Morales (ARG) 08:45:18 Jessica Jacobs (USA) 09:41:03
2012 Ben Hoffman (USA) 08:32:51 Elizabeth Lyles (USA) 09:34:35
2013 Maik Twelsiek (GER) 08:40:15 Jackie Arendt (USA) 09:47:07

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Maik Twelsiek GER 00:52:38 04:34:58 03:06:09 08:40:15
2 Daniel Bretscher USA 00:53:00 04:49:15 02:57:26 08:46:00
3 Elliot Holtham CAN 00:55:48 04:48:08 03:00:53 08:50:45

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Jackie Arendt USA 00:57:00 05:27:30 03:16:03 09:47:07
2 Beth Shutt USA 01:01:16 05:29:28 03:15:50 09:53:42
3 Malaika Homo USA 00:56:41 05:23:03 03:32:38 09:58:49

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:32:51 Ben Hoffman 2012-09-09
Swim overall 00:44:56 John Flanagan 2010-09-12
Bike overall 04:34:58 Maik Twelsiek 2013-09-08
Run overall 02:50:21 Maximilian Longree 2010-09-12
Total female 09:27:26 Gina Crawford 2010-09-12
Swim female 00:48:41 Linda Gallo 2005-09-11
Bike female 05:12:50 Gina Crawford 2010-09-12
Run female 02:59:33 Elizabeth Lyles 2012-09-09

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Wisconsin is – 05:52.

Race Adjustments for IM Wisconsin

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Athletes Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2005 -16:31 00:20 -08:43 -09:50 14 -16:31 00:20 -08:43 -09:50
2006 -19:50 -03:33 -17:21 -02:58 22 -18:10 -01:36 -13:02 -06:24
2007 -01:51 -03:52 -04:28 03:31 33 -12:44 -02:22 -10:11 -03:06
2008 01:44 -00:39 -02:13 02:39 28 -09:07 -01:56 -08:11 -01:40
2009 -04:49 -01:30 -01:14 -02:58 25 -08:15 -01:51 -06:48 -01:55
2010 00:22 -01:19 -01:22 01:39 24 -06:49 -01:45 -05:54 -01:20
2011 -07:38 -01:43 -01:48 -04:09 19 -06:56 -01:45 -05:19 -01:44
2012 -06:05 -01:37 -00:17 -00:03 23 -06:50 -01:44 -04:41 -01:31
2013 01:50 -03:17 -00:51 02:54 22 -05:52 -01:54 -04:15 -01:02

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Wisconsin has 2000 KPR points for the winner. It has a total prize purse of 25k$.

Male Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating Rank
1 11 Konstantin Bachor GER 08:43:30 08:37:53 00:49:06 04:29:58 03:11:52 41
2 17 Matt Hanson USA 08:53:47 08:48:03 00:55:48 04:56:56 02:48:48 71
3 2 Brandon Marsh USA 08:57:53 08:52:06 00:47:28 04:47:13 03:10:21 86
4 1 Daniel Bretscher USA 09:00:16 08:54:28 00:50:51 04:48:31 03:06:53 98
5 3 Pedro Gomes POR 09:03:01 08:57:11 00:51:22 04:50:58 03:10:02 115
6 6 Thomas Gerlach USA 09:05:40 08:59:48 00:54:13 04:45:24 03:13:32 127
7 13 Andres Castillo COL 09:11:09 09:05:14 00:47:46 04:53:45 03:19:57 (151)
8 14 Karol Dzalaj SVK 09:14:24 09:08:27 00:53:30 04:49:17 03:18:52 170
9 5 Guy Crawford NZL 09:17:08 09:11:09 00:49:45 04:50:58 03:29:00 183
10 18 Chad Holderbaum USA 09:17:21 09:11:22 00:54:57 04:54:12 03:13:28 184
11 12 Adam Bohach USA 09:23:27 09:17:24 00:55:02 05:03:15 03:11:33 199
12 10 Jared Milam USA 09:24:36 09:18:32 00:54:13 05:05:02 03:13:36 203
13 8 Ryan Rau USA 09:27:33 09:21:27 00:58:37 05:11:49 03:03:47 (212)
14 21 Ryan Bates USA 09:34:59 09:28:48 00:53:00 04:52:57 03:22:42 (247)
15 4 Blake Becker USA 09:36:48 09:30:36 00:53:14 05:01:05 03:32:44 253
16 20 Peter Kotland USA 10:09:31 10:02:58 00:57:40 05:18:19 03:37:45 375
17 16 Paul Eicher USA 10:10:35 10:04:01 00:53:42 05:01:00 03:46:01 (380)
18 19 Jeremy Howard USA 10:14:30 10:07:54 00:52:18 05:19:02 03:33:38 (388)
19 7 Jared Woodford USA 10:23:58 10:17:16 00:52:21 05:13:53 03:54:13 (418)
9 Jason Smith USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
15 Nick Early USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating Rank
1 35 Britta Martin NZL 09:43:09 09:36:53 00:59:57 05:11:01 03:16:00 34
2 32 Kim Schwabenbauer USA 09:44:20 09:38:03 01:02:22 05:15:01 03:14:41 37
3 30 Ashley Clifford USA 09:49:44 09:43:24 00:53:54 05:31:30 03:12:19 46
4 36 Tamara Kozulina UKR 09:50:33 09:44:12 01:01:06 05:21:22 03:15:57 52
5 27 Jessica Jacobs USA 09:55:56 09:49:32 01:06:05 05:15:23 03:19:57 64
6 34 Ariane Monticeli BRA 09:57:45 09:51:20 01:02:09 05:30:56 03:17:45 70
7 26 Jackie Arendt USA 10:00:20 09:53:53 00:54:59 05:27:46 03:22:29 76
8 39 Malaika Homo USA 10:03:42 09:57:13 00:53:04 05:22:42 03:35:02 86
9 40 Jessica Smith USA 10:14:48 10:08:12 00:54:19 05:26:24 03:40:40 102
10 28 Kate Bevilaqua AUS 10:21:31 10:14:50 00:57:49 05:31:19 03:40:21 121
11 33 Tami Ritchie USA 10:48:14 10:41:16 00:52:06 05:57:33 03:46:09 151
12 38 Ali Black USA 10:58:03 10:50:59 01:03:21 05:33:24 03:49:14 (157)
13 31 Palmira Alvarez MEX 11:21:52 11:14:32 01:19:10 05:42:57 03:52:09 (162)
37 Andrea Hutchins USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

  • Konstantin Bachor: 53% (1-1)
  • Brandon Marsh: 21% (4-1)
  • Pedro Gomes: 15% (6-1)
  • Daniel Bretscher: 6% (16-1)
  • Thomas Gerlach: 3% (37-1)
  • Matt Hanson: 2% (64-1)

Female Race Participants

  • Britta Martin: 37% (2-1)
  • Jessica Jacobs: 14% (6-1)
  • Ariane Monticeli: 13% (7-1)
  • Tamara Kozulina: 12% (8-1)
  • Kim Schwabenbauer: 11% (8-1)
  • Ashley Clifford: 8% (11-1)
  • Jackie Arendt: 3% (37-1)
  • Kate Bevilaqua: 2% (64-1)

Women Pro Slots for Kona

Over the last weeks, there has been a lot of discussion around the issue of Women Pro slots for Kona. Tawnee and I have repeatedly discussed what was happening on our EndurancePlanet podcast, and I thought that this is a good time to sum up the recent developments and issues.

50WomenToKona

In the summer of 2013, the issue of extra Kona slots for women Pros has been raised by Rachel Joyce in a witsup article. Last year, the discussion never really gained momentum. Then in July 2014, a new Twitter account with the name of „50WomenToKona“ took up the issue, contacted a lot of triathletes, managed to get a lot of interest and is still actively pushing the issue.

To sum up the discussion, the argument for men to have more slots than women is based on the fact that there are more men participating in Ironman events, both at the age group and the Professional level. The counter arguments are that participation numbers shouldn’t determine the size of the field for Championship events, that the top end of the field of the women is as close as for the men, and that women simply deserve equal treatment in 2014.

Boulder Meeting (Early August)

With the mounting pressure around the number of Kona slots, a meeting was set up between WTC CEO Andrew Messick and a number of Pro women in the week before IM Boulder. Other Pros had the chance to at least listen to the discussion via a conference call. I was not part of this meeting, so I have to rely on the accounts of the meeting – mostly from interviews by Andrew (with Triathlete and with Slowtwitch) and an interview that Mirinda Carfrae did with Triathlete.

Among other things discussed, Andrew acknowledged the push for extra slots, but instead of agreeing to something specific, he indicated that

„[t]he women we talked to were not at all focused on a specific number, they just wanted it to be the same. So we’re going to look at that for 2015, [… asking] what is the right number of professional athletes that should be starting at the world championship.”

Since that interview, I have not seen this issue discussed in public except for a few tweets by Jordan Rapp, and no final decision has been announced by WTC.

Extra Slots for 2014?

Another issue discussed in the Boulder meeting was extra women Pro slots for 2014. I don’t have any official information on this, most of what is in the public was written by Jordan Rapp in a thread on the Slowtwitch forum.

Apparently, WTC offered extra WPRO slots for 2014 – either an extra 10 or 15 slots. (There is conflicting information about this.) I’m not aware of the specific procedure that these slots would have been assigned (e.g. how many extra July and/or August slots), but the Pro women were to agree whether or not to have extra slots for 2014. (Again, specific details are sketchy – was that just a majority decision or did a decision require unanimity?) In case the WPROs decided to accept the extra slots, they were expected to participate in a one-day event focused on „women issues“. (Once again, unclear if this was to be an internal workshop or a „PR event“ for WTC.) All of the Top 50 women were given a chance to weigh in (coordinated by Rachel Joyce), and the decision would be made by the athletes already qualified at that point (28 point slots at the end of July plus automatic qualifiers).

The extra slots didn’t get the required support, the main argument was that „moving the goalposts“ wouldn’t be fair: Some athletes raced another IM to make sure they qualify (e.g. Natascha Badmann and Kristin Möller who backed up in Switzerland after Germany), some decided to have a lighter schedule (e.g. Amy Marsh who tried to qualify with another 70.3 or Angela Naeth who decided against racing another IM). Other examples include Mareen Hufe who might not have DNF’d in Frankfurt after it was clear she would not get the points to get a spot in the Top 28 for July; and there are probably athletes – further away form the Top 28 or 35 – who might have added another race to their schedule.

Lots of Open Questions

As far as I can see, the only thing that seems certain is that there will be no changes in the number of WPRO slots for Kona 2014. We don’t have any hard announcements by WTC concerning 2015, neither regarding equality of slots nor a specific number of slots. There are a lot of other loose ends for Kona 2015 qualifying (apparently the number of races counting for the KPR score is also still open). We only have a few more days before the first Ironman with KPR points for Kona 2015 (Ironman Wisconsin on September 7th), and it would only be fair to all Pro athletes to know the rules for qualifying. I hope that WTC will soon announce more details and make things a bit more predictable!

MetaMan Bintan 2014 – Analyzing Results

Race Conditions

With an adjustment of 4:26 this year has been the fastest we have seen from MetaMan (new course rating -4:15) – maybe a sign that this year not too many athletes are focused on Kona and tried to save their legs? Both the bike and the run have been faster than before, but the heat and humidity still cause a pretty slow run (run adjustment of -4:29).

Male Race Results

Cameron Brown and Courtney Ogden were racing with one another for almost the whole day – it was only in the final part of the run that Cam moved ahead to win a nice paycheck. Courtney finished second, and Fredrik Croneborg third. Frederik again had the best run, but had lost too much time with a flat on the bike to be in contention.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected
1 Cameron Brown NZL 00:55:18 04:36:15 02:54:32 08:28:21 04:13
2 Courtney Ogden AUS 00:55:15 04:36:24 02:58:04 08:32:03 -07:01
3 Fredrik Croneborg SWE 00:55:04 04:44:22 02:53:51 08:35:04 -09:09
4 Stefan Schmid GER 00:55:12 04:36:10 03:03:40 08:37:33 -07:03
5 Benjamin Williams USA 00:55:14 04:57:38 03:06:44 09:01:55 -02:36
6 Carl Read NZL 00:56:34 04:54:35 03:12:48 09:06:11 11:13
7 Joseph Spindler GER 01:07:23 04:47:13 03:30:55 09:28:17 21:25
8 Peter Mauro AUS 00:56:34 05:03:17 03:39:13 09:41:09 n/a

Female Race Results

Gina Crawford also needed a solid run to move past Diana Riesler who was leading the race into T2. The podium is completed by Michelle Gailey in her comeback race after a long injury break.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected
1 Gina Crawford NZL 00:55:25 05:03:48 03:15:04 09:17:15 -03:23
2 Diana Riesler GER 00:59:39 04:54:33 03:22:44 09:19:49 -13:38
3 Michelle Gailey AUS 00:56:40 05:30:12 03:29:09 09:58:25 16:14
4 Erin Furness NZL 01:07:18 05:41:07 03:35:22 10:26:42 22:27
5 Rebecca Hoschke AUS 01:07:20 05:22:25 04:21:12 10:54:27 1:04:57

Challenge Penticton 2014 – Analyzing Results

Race Conditions

Challenge Penticton is held on the same course as the old Ironman Canada (before that moved to Whistler). Nonetheless, the results have been a bit quicker for the Challenge race – I’m not sure why. The race adjustment of 14:16 is consistent with what we’ve seen last year (course rating of 14:07) while for IM Canada the course rating was between 4 and 6 minutes. As usual, the lake swim was pretty slow (-4:48, about as slow as the swim in Kona) while the bike and run were faster.

Male Race Results

Jeff Symonds defended his title from last year without too much drama: His bike was good enough to be in the lead, so a 2:50 marathon (slow for him) was enough to win by more than 20 minutes. Chris Bagg and Simon Cochrane completed the podium.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected
1 Jeff Symonds CAN 00:53:39 04:39:28 02:50:36 08:26:58 04:40
2 Christopher Bagg USA 00:58:59 04:42:47 03:01:42 08:47:01 -35:59
3 Simon Cochrane NZL 00:56:57 04:52:49 02:57:00 08:50:05 -05:52
4 Andrew Russell CAN 00:53:41 04:50:28 03:04:53 08:52:11 00:57
5 Sean Bechtel CAN 00:53:40 04:47:05 03:11:18 08:55:30 06:14
6 Nathan Champness CAN 01:01:15 04:38:01 03:16:03 08:59:31 -22:45
7 Scott Defilippis USA 01:01:16 05:02:04 03:00:23 09:07:26 17:21
8 Nathan Killam CAN 01:01:11 04:53:05 03:10:25 09:08:16 -08:48
9 Douglas MacLean USA 01:02:07 05:01:35 03:02:46 09:11:24 04:34
10 Adam O’Meara CAN 00:59:11 05:03:35 03:12:28 09:21:43 11:08
11 Chris Young CAN 01:10:17 04:55:54 03:29:24 09:39:37 -44:01
12 Matt Lawrence 01:01:14 04:51:36 03:48:07 09:45:05 n/a
13 Matthew Sheeks USA 01:11:23 05:06:07 03:30:19 09:51:56 55:07
14 Elmar Heger GER 00:59:14 05:01:36 04:08:01 10:13:59 -11:25
Josh Seifarth CAN 00:53:32 05:10:34 DNF
Rick Floyd USA 00:59:09 05:30:15 DNF

Female Race Results

After having to DNF in Boulder, Carrie Lester managed to win in Penticton – similar to Jeff with the best run time and by more than 20 minutes! Mackenzie Madison and Jen Annett finished second and third.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected
1 Carrie Lester AUS 00:59:52 05:09:31 03:13:59 09:27:24 -01:40
2 Mackenzie Madison USA 01:02:10 05:16:24 03:24:55 09:47:49 12:15
3 Jen Annett CAN 01:11:11 05:10:00 03:23:53 09:48:58 -21:39
4 Christine Fletcher CAN 01:02:15 05:21:16 03:24:51 09:52:40 -10:02
5 Jennifer Luebke USA 01:01:14 05:20:49 03:32:26 09:58:51 -27:25
6 Trish Deim USA 01:11:34 05:22:48 03:28:28 10:06:57 -02:38
7 Natasha Van der Merwe USA 01:02:09 05:24:07 03:40:55 10:11:10 -04:46
8 Alyssa Godesky USA 01:06:35 05:32:45 03:37:51 10:21:50 -06:48
9 Cathleen Knutson USA 01:15:21 05:31:37 03:36:15 10:27:17 -09:10
10 Jana Candrova CZE 01:15:40 05:49:36 03:49:46 10:59:33 52:54
Karen Thibodeau CAN 00:59:03 DNF

Ironman Louisville 2014 – Analyzing Results

Race Conditions

The adjustments for IM Louisville don’t have a clear pattern: There are some fast years (like 2013 with 14:30) but also slow ones (like 2010 with -4:21). Compared to the average (new course rating of 3:28) this year was fast (adjustment of 8:04), but the heat affected the race this year, especially on the run (run adjustment of -4:39). Based on the announcements from WTC, this was the final Pro race in Louisville.

Male Race Results

Patrick Evoe led the race coming out of T2 but quickly fell back to finish in 3rd. Chris McDonald took the lead, but he was pushed right up to the finish line by Thomas Gerlach. Chris eventual won by 16 seconds over Thomas.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected
1 Chris McDonald AUS 00:48:28 04:39:01 03:08:27 08:40:51 03:25
2 Thomas Gerlach USA 00:48:30 04:39:16 03:07:40 08:41:07 -12:17
3 Patrick Evoe USA 00:51:39 04:35:36 03:16:59 08:49:27 01:22
4 Mike Hermanson USA 00:47:39 04:52:02 03:14:45 09:00:27 -42:54
5 Michael Starkey 00:53:24 04:47:10 03:14:41 09:01:10 n/a
6 Patrick Schuster USA 00:57:26 04:44:57 03:14:35 09:02:46 -29:17
7 Jason Shortis AUS 00:53:44 04:52:32 03:22:57 09:15:26 25:24
8 Tom Wood USA 00:48:01 05:03:47 03:23:52 09:23:00 -27:20
9 Peter Kotland USA 00:51:53 05:06:53 03:41:08 09:49:20 -05:45
10 Brent Mcburney USA 00:53:21 05:02:07 04:22:47 10:24:13 n/a
Guy Crawford NZL 00:46:01 04:37:25 DNF
Raymond Botelho USA 00:48:23 04:44:37 DNF
Clay Emge USA 00:48:34 04:58:37 DNF

Female Race Results

Kate Bevilaqua had a strong swim and bike, but had to DNF on the run. Nina Kraft took control of the race and won by 12 minutes, becoming the oldest Ironman winner at almost 46 years. Jackie Arendt finished second and got enough points for a Kona slot. Caroline Gregory had the best run of the day to get the final podium spot.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected
1 Nina Kraft GER 00:46:51 05:14:41 03:23:30 09:31:19 -05:31
2 Jackie Arendt USA 00:48:09 05:19:06 03:30:03 09:43:25 -02:02
3 Caroline Gregory USA 00:53:19 05:31:29 03:16:55 09:47:02 -33:51
4 Molly Roohi USA 00:54:58 05:13:03 03:36:56 09:51:49 -19:04
5 Amy Javens USA 00:59:15 05:20:58 03:40:38 10:07:16 -16:53
6 Cindy Lewis CAN 00:53:49 05:28:02 03:43:20 10:11:41 03:09
7 Rachel Jastrebsky USA 00:53:59 05:25:04 03:57:35 10:23:23 08:54
Kate Bevilaqua AUS 00:47:39 05:10:10 DNF
Heather Leiggi USA 00:54:02 05:15:09 DNF
Shannon Florea 00:53:52 05:38:55 DNF
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