Updated the TOP 10 Ratings
Just updated the TOP 10 Ratings to include the results from Kona, Arizona, Florida, Cozumel and Western Australia. Please check the main menu!
IM Western Australia 2011 – Analyzing Results
Race Conditions
This year was one of the slower races for Western Australia – the adjustment was 7:30 compared to the new course rating of 11:16 (down from 11:54), so it was about four minutes slower than the average of the last years.
Male Results
Timo Bracht had to come up with another strong run to catch a courageous Clayton Fettel:
Rank Name Nation Actual Time Expected Time 1 Timo Bracht GER 08:12:39 08:17:14 2 Clayton Fettell AUS 08:19:02 08:37:14 3 Jason Shortis AUS 08:27:31 08:50:51 4 Joshua Rix 08:30:59 09:14:24 5 Aaron Farlow AUS 08:34:09 08:31:27 6 Petr Vabrousek CZE 08:35:08 08:51:14 7 Mitchell Anderson AUS 08:35:57 08:37:58 8 Simon Billeau FRA 08:38:06 08:48:05 9 Luke Whitmore AUS 08:54:35 08:59:20 10 Maik Twelsiek GER 08:56:10 08:32:29 11 Luke McKenzie AUS 09:03:44 08:35:03 12 Leon Griffin AUS 09:03:49 08:32:23 13 Guy Crawford AUS 09:10:50 08:55:10 14 Shinya Suganuma JPN 09:19:15 09:10:15 15 Mike Gee 09:22:49 n/a 16 Dion Harrison GBR 09:57:07 09:21:10 17 Hirotsugu Kuwabara JAP 10:47:05 10:03:18
Maik Twelsiek and Luke McKenzie were predicted to go quite a bit faster, but they already lined up their “validation” IM, so now they can – as well as Timo Bracht – focus on their Kona 2012 prep.
Female Results
On the female side, IM rookie Michelle Bremer won her first IM. Pre-race favorite Kristin Moeller was 40 minutes slower than expected, so she dropped out of the prize money spots:
Rank Name Nation Actual Time Expected Time 1 Michelle Bremer NZL 09:25:38 n/a 2 Michelle Mitchell AUS 09:28:07 09:37:28 3 Carrie Lester AUS 09:32:44 09:36:25 4 Elly Franks AUS 09:37:51 10:21:46 5 Hillary Biscay USA 09:39:41 10:08:20 6 Kate Bevilaqua AUS 09:43:37 09:49:58 7 Yvette Grice GBR 09:53:33 10:12:04 8 Emi Shiono JPN 10:00:23 10:00:23 9 Kristin Moeller GER 10:07:05 09:26:48 10 Suzanne Blackborrow 10:31:51 n/a
IM Western Australia 2011 – Predictions
The final race of the Ironman 2011 season is coming up this weekend: Ironman Western Australia.
Previous Results
Western Australia is one of the quicker courses with the same course rating as IM Germany (11:54). Last year’s winners were Courtney Ogden (8:14) and Kate Bevilaqua (9:19).
Male Participants
Defending champion Courtney Ogden faces some very strong competition for his title – he has only the 8th best rating! (Still, he has the second highest odds for winning.) The favorite has to be Timo Bracht – apparently he is repeating his last season with an early qualifier to secure his spot for Kona:
Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank 1 Timo Bracht GER 08:13:08 08:24:14 7 2 Aaron Farlow AUS 08:27:14 08:38:39 28 3 Leon Griffin AUS 08:28:09 08:39:36 31 4 Maik Twelsiek GER 08:28:15 08:39:42 33 5 Luke McKenzie AUS 08:30:48 08:42:18 40 6 Clayton Fettell AUS 08:32:58 08:44:31 47 7 Mitchell Anderson AUS 08:33:41 08:45:15 54 8 Courtney Ogden AUS 08:34:32 08:46:07 59 9 Simon Billeau FRA 08:43:43 08:55:31 113 10 Jason Shortis AUS 08:46:28 08:58:19 125 11 Petr Vabrousek CZE 08:46:51 08:58:43 128 12 Guy Crawford AUS 08:50:45 09:02:42 150 13 Luke Whitmore AUS 08:54:52 09:06:55 175 14 Shinya Suganuma JPN 09:05:43 09:18:00 257 15 Chris Dmitrieff AUS 09:05:53 09:18:11 257 16 Dion Harrison GBR 09:16:32 09:29:04 345 17 James Bowstead NZL 09:24:40 09:37:23 401 18 Hirotsugu Kuwabara JAP 09:58:19 10:11:47 627
The odds for winning are as follows:
- Timo Bracht: 60%
- Courtney Ogden: 14%
- Luke McKenzie: 9%
- Mitchell Anderson: 7%
- Jason Shortis: 4%
- Maik Twelsiek: 3%
- Aaron Farlow: 2%
Female Participants
Similar story on the women’s side: The defending champ (Kate Bevilaqua, ranked 4th) faces strong competition, even if the females athletes before her are not that well known:
Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank 1 Kristin Moeller GER 09:22:07 09:34:47 22 2 Carrie Lester AUS 09:31:40 09:44:32 46 3 Michelle Mitchell AUS 09:32:42 09:45:36 48 4 Kate Bevilaqua AUS 09:45:05 09:58:16 78 5 Emi Shiono JPN 09:55:25 10:08:50 110 6 Hillary Biscay USA 10:03:19 10:16:54 145 7 Yvette Grice GBR 10:07:01 10:20:41 157 8 Elly Franks AUS 10:16:38 10:30:31 183 9 Jodie Scott AUS 10:27:01 10:41:08 207 10 Michelle Bremer NZL n/a unrated n/a
The odds for winning are as follows (again the defending champ looks better in the odds than in the ratings):
- Kristin Moeller: 35%
- Kate Bevilaqua: 22%
- Michelle Mitchell: 18%
- Carrie Lester: 16%
- Emi Shiono: 4%
- Yvette Grice: 3%
- Hillary Biscay: 2%
Looking for ideas for end-of-year analysis
My friends over at the IMTalk podcast are helping me to come up with some ideas for interesting analysis at the end of the 2011 season. They have made this their “weekly discussion”. You can leave ideas on their facebook page or comment on this post. John and Bevan also have a new, monthly podcast called “Legends of Triathlon” – please check it out!
Thanks for all the help!
IM Cozumel 2011 – Analyzing Results
Race Conditions
Adjustments in Cozumel are settling in at around 11 minutes, this time at 10:50. From what I heard conditions were all over the place, with sunshine, rain and wind. Not sure if that was causing it, but a lot of big names had to pull out, most notably pre-race favorite Mathias Hecht and defending champion Yvonne van Vlercken.
Male Results
Michael Lovato managed a solid race when all the people that came off the bike with him ran into problems. One of those athletes is Christian Ritter who was even leading the race on the run. He finished as the last pro (at least fulfilling his “at least one IM” requirement and snagging 50 points in the KPR).
Rank Name Nation Actual Time Expected Time 1 Michael Lovato USA 08:23:52 08:37:43 2 Patrick Evoe USA 08:30:36 08:46:19 3 Alejandro Santamaria ESP 08:32:50 08:54:39 4 Zach Ruble USA 08:34:51 09:07:11 5 Andrey Lyatskiy RUS 08:43:05 09:07:30 6 Trevor Delsaut FRA 08:44:03 08:54:30 7 Brandon Marsh USA 08:45:43 08:59:58 8 Bruno Clerbout BEL 08:47:07 09:05:27 9 Markus Thomschke 08:51:23 n/a 10 Axel Zeebroek BEL 08:54:06 08:39:27 11 Raul Furtado BRA 08:54:39 09:07:02 12 Mike Schifferle SWI 09:01:18 08:59:37 13 Brendan Halpin USA 09:04:36 09:30:27 14 Richard Thompson 09:05:17 n/a 15 Michael Wetzel GER 09:07:02 08:59:01 16 Ben Cotter CAN 09:08:05 09:23:31 17 Andres Castillo Latorre COL 09:08:06 09:05:13 18 Gregorio Morales ESP 09:11:49 08:58:23 19 Luiz Francisco Ferreira BRA 09:19:46 09:01:46 20 Adam O’Meara CAN 09:20:26 09:25:30 21 Tim Snow USA 09:21:03 09:17:33 22 Oscar Galindez ARG 09:27:15 08:44:42 23 Sergio Quezada MEX 09:27:31 10:15:31 24 Patrick Wallimann SWI 09:35:38 09:00:51 25 Christopher Bagg USA 09:38:04 08:53:24 26 Horst Reichel GER 09:38:20 08:59:58 27 Luca De Paolis ITA 09:41:16 n/a 28 Simon Malo CAN 09:47:58 09:36:57 29 Cesar Valera VEN 09:55:39 09:59:41 30 Richard Wygand BRA 10:03:04 10:46:27 31 Christian Ritter GER 11:04:22 08:36:19
Female Results
On the women’s side Simone Benz won her first Ironman. She held on during the run after Sonja Tajsich suffered a flat on the bike and was too far back to catch her:
Rank Name Nation Actual Time Expected Time 1 Simone Benz SWI 09:14:08 10:11:25 2 Sonja Tajsich GER 09:23:15 09:17:08 3 Sophie De Groote 09:26:07 n/a 4 Terra Castro USA 09:39:35 10:11:41 5 Kristin Andrews 09:42:14 n/a 6 Sara Gross CAN 09:56:29 09:41:44 7 Sarah Piampiano 09:57:58 n/a 8 Francesca Tibaldi 10:01:39 n/a 9 Tatiana Vertiz 10:15:06 n/a 10 Anne Basso FRA 10:18:53 10:06:04 11 Federica Frontini URU 10:22:41 10:37:36 12 Tami Ritchie 10:26:04 n/a 13 Conny Dauben GER 10:40:38 10:34:48 14 Annett Kamenz CAN 11:23:14 09:56:44 15 Mariana Andrade BRA 11:36:34 10:26:34