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IM Lake Placid 2011 – Predictions (Details Post)

Male Race Participants

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Eduardo Sturla ARG 08:41:30 08:39:40 23
2 Jason Shortis AUS 08:52:22 08:50:30 73
3 Luke Bell AUS 08:53:13 08:51:21 78
4 Torsten Abel GER 08:53:18 08:51:26 80
5 Ben Hoffman USA 08:55:22 08:53:29 88
6 TJ Tollakson USA 08:56:45 08:54:52 90
7 Mike Neill CAN 08:59:22 08:57:29 108
8 Mike Caiazzo USA 09:01:57 09:00:03 116
9 Ian Mikelson USA 09:13:37 09:11:41 176
10 Christopher Bagg USA 09:16:42 09:14:45 198
11 Raul Furtado BRA 09:20:40 09:18:42 236
12 Matthew Russell USA 09:24:02 09:22:03 260
13 Tim Snow USA 09:31:44 09:29:44 306
14 Logan Franks USA 09:36:42 09:34:41 336
15 Kyle Pawlaczyk USA 09:43:22 09:41:19 390
16 John Hirsch USA 09:47:24 09:45:20 414
17 Raymond Botelho USA 10:01:42 09:59:35 503
18 Arland Macasieb PHL 10:21:59 10:19:48 621
19 Sergio Quezada MEX 10:28:12 10:26:00 652
20 Tyler Lord CAN 10:41:16 10:39:01 691
21 Ryan Grant CAN 11:23:51 11:21:27 770
22 Ryan Cain CAN n/a unrated n/a
23 Holden Cameau USA n/a unrated n/a
24 Ryan Kelly USA n/a unrated n/a

Female Race Participants

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Heather Wurtele CAN 09:36:53 09:34:52 17
2 Tine Deckers BEL 09:42:11 09:40:09 28
3 Tyler Stewart USA 09:42:18 09:40:15 30
4 Jackie Arendt USA 10:10:53 10:08:44 102
5 Jacqui Gordon USA 10:13:13 10:11:04 111
6 Marie Danais CAN 10:26:42 10:24:30 157
7 Miranda Alldritt CAN 10:53:48 10:51:30 215
8 Amber Ferreira USA 11:40:57 11:38:30 265

Results for Eduardo Sturla (ARG)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Brasil 2011-05-29 08:13:12 08:33:39 08:39:40 1
IM South Africa 2011-04-10 08:32:52 08:44:04 08:40:41 6
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 08:48:07 08:50:44 08:40:02 31
IM Brasil 2010-05-30 08:20:24 08:36:44 08:37:54 4
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 08:49:22 08:47:16 08:38:09 19
IM Brasil 2009-05-31 08:13:39 08:25:48 08:36:06 1
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 08:36:53 08:36:36 08:38:43 10
IM Brasil 2008-05-25 08:28:27 08:37:34 08:39:17 1
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 08:36:31 08:37:21 08:39:49 13
IM Brasil 2007-05-27 08:29:27 08:40:20 08:40:42 3
IM Florida 2006-11-04 08:23:49 08:31:34 08:40:53 2
IM Brasil 2006-01-01 08:39:06 08:45:58 08:47:15 7
IM Austria 2005-07-03 08:48:43 08:48:43 08:48:43 14

Results for Jason Shortis (AUS)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Australia 2011-05-01 08:46:07 08:55:15 08:50:30 3
IM South Africa 2010-04-25 08:34:52 08:42:56 08:49:16 4
IM Lake Placid 2009-07-26 08:58:09 08:58:15 08:50:48 3
IM Australia 2009-04-05 09:02:22 09:07:24 08:48:59 11
IM Wisconsin 2008-09-07 08:59:14 08:59:50 08:43:40 3
IM Australia 2007-04-08 08:25:33 08:27:43 08:38:27 2
IM Korea 2006-08-27 08:34:09 08:36:45 08:41:24 5
Challenge Roth 2006-06-24 08:30:55 08:43:09 08:42:46 8
IM Australia 2006-05-11 08:36:08 08:33:59 08:42:37 3
IM Hawaii 2005-10-15 08:57:06 08:56:53 08:47:56 38
Challenge Roth 2005-06-24 08:27:25 08:38:10 08:38:10 8

Results for Luke Bell (AUS)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Texas 2011-05-21 08:12:22 08:19:49 08:51:21 3
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 09:24:34 09:27:22 08:59:41 53
IM Coeur d’Alene 2010-06-27 08:43:16 08:51:09 08:51:48 4
IM Canada 2009-08-30 09:26:26 09:31:32 08:52:02 19
IM Australia 2008-04-06 08:56:17 09:00:55 08:36:34 6
IM New Zealand 2007-03-03 08:27:41 08:31:29 08:27:56 2
IM Hawaii 2006-10-21 08:24:26 08:22:07 08:26:42 7
IM Brasil 2006-01-01 08:15:48 08:22:21 08:28:48 2
IM Hawaii 2005-10-15 08:33:43 08:33:31 08:32:29 13
IM Australia 2005-04-08 08:31:17 08:31:17 08:31:17 2

Results for Torsten Abel (GER)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Texas 2011-05-21 08:38:40 08:46:31 08:51:26 10
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 08:42:42 08:45:18 08:52:59 26
IM Arizona 2009-11-22 08:20:39 08:32:27 08:55:43 3
IM Switzerland 2009-07-12 08:36:38 08:49:43 09:04:41 3
IM Canada 2007-08-26 09:02:07 09:03:18 09:12:37 12
IM Coeur d’Alene 2007-06-23 09:34:05 09:35:51 09:16:46 16
IM Canada 2006-08-27 09:14:42 09:13:49 09:02:40 10
Challenge Roth 2005-06-24 08:36:06 08:47:02 08:47:02 11

Results for Ben Hoffman (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM St. George 2011-05-07 08:41:39 08:43:29 08:53:29 4
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 09:03:29 09:06:11 08:56:19 42
IM Lake Placid 2010-07-25 08:39:34 08:44:37 08:53:12 1
IM St. George 2010-05-01 08:52:54 08:48:34 08:56:51 2
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 09:29:54 09:27:38 09:02:19 58
IM Arizona 2008-11-23 08:24:13 08:29:44 08:29:44 6

Results for TJ Tollakson (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM St. George 2011-05-07 08:40:20 08:42:10 08:54:52 3
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 08:54:00 08:56:39 08:58:04 38
IM Arizona 2009-11-22 08:20:22 08:32:10 08:58:27 2
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 09:06:20 09:04:10 09:05:28 32
IM Coeur d’Alene 2009-06-21 08:42:03 08:47:07 09:05:54 2
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 09:53:43 09:53:23 09:14:40 68
IM Arizona 2008-04-13 08:34:36 08:39:17 08:50:44 2
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 09:03:05 09:03:58 09:03:58 29

Results for Mike Neill (CAN)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Texas 2011-05-21 08:39:40 08:47:31 08:57:29 11
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 09:11:07 09:08:56 09:00:22 37
IM New Zealand 2009-03-07 08:44:05 08:53:56 08:58:27 7
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 08:57:00 08:56:42 08:59:30 26
IM Coeur d’Alene 2008-06-22 08:53:09 08:58:23 09:00:15 4
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 08:47:57 08:48:48 09:00:50 21
IM Australia 2007-04-08 08:55:36 08:57:54 09:05:02 6
IM Hawaii 2006-10-21 08:52:29 08:50:02 09:08:06 31
IM Lake Placid 2006-07-23 08:57:44 08:50:15 09:19:03 5
IM Canada 2005-08-29 09:57:42 09:56:21 09:56:21 22

Results for Mike Caiazzo (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Lake Placid 2009-07-26 08:59:57 09:00:03 09:00:03 4

Results for Ian Mikelson (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Arizona 2010-11-21 08:41:18 08:54:26 09:11:41 8
IM Wisconsin 2010-09-12 09:10:38 09:13:58 09:17:00 11
IM Lake Placid 2010-07-25 09:15:58 09:21:22 09:18:15 7
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 09:09:51 09:07:40 09:16:13 36
IM Coeur d’Alene 2009-06-21 09:20:07 09:25:33 09:25:33 12

Results for Christopher Bagg (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Canada 2010-08-29 08:48:11 08:58:32 09:14:45 8
IM Canada 2009-08-30 09:31:13 09:36:21 09:36:21 22

Results for Raul Furtado (BRA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Texas 2011-05-21 09:09:39 09:17:58 09:18:42 16
IM Brasil 2009-05-31 08:53:20 09:06:28 09:19:16 5
IM Brasil 2008-05-25 08:55:04 09:04:40 09:29:04 5
IM Brasil 2007-05-27 09:49:00 10:01:35 10:01:35 26

Results for Matthew Russell (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Texas 2011-05-21 09:03:06 09:11:19 09:22:03 14
IM Arizona 2010-11-21 09:09:15 09:23:05 09:28:31 21
IM Lake Placid 2010-07-25 09:28:58 09:34:30 09:34:30 13

Results for Tim Snow (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Coeur d’Alene 2011-06-26 09:12:04 09:18:17 09:29:44 6
IM Lake Placid 2010-07-25 09:10:48 09:16:09 09:32:04 5
IM St. George 2010-05-01 09:34:35 09:29:55 09:35:01 14
IM Lake Placid 2009-07-26 09:26:26 09:26:32 09:36:06 11
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 10:02:51 10:02:31 09:38:02 73
IM Lake Placid 2008-07-20 09:18:38 09:18:12 09:33:19 10
IM Florida 2007-11-03 08:49:50 09:05:59 09:36:39 16
IM Coeur d’Alene 2007-06-23 09:21:12 09:22:56 09:43:20 11
IM Arizona 2007-04-15 09:29:49 09:33:10 09:48:19 14
IM Canada 2006-08-27 13:38:30 13:37:12 09:52:53 32
IM Lake Placid 2006-07-23 09:59:10 09:50:49 09:52:53 24
IM Florida 2005-11-05 10:02:12 10:05:21 09:53:33 30
IM Hawaii 2005-10-15 10:04:53 10:04:38 09:49:20 86
IM Germany 2005-07-11 09:47:00 09:43:45 09:41:01 12
IM Coeur d’Alene 2005-06-26 09:38:16 09:38:16 09:38:16 15

Results for Logan Franks (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Coeur d’Alene 2011-06-26 09:34:58 09:41:26 09:34:41 12
IM Lake Placid 2010-07-25 09:20:27 09:25:54 09:25:54 11

Results for Kyle Pawlaczyk (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Coeur d’Alene 2011-06-26 09:19:50 09:26:08 09:41:19 8
IM Florida 2010-11-06 09:40:43 09:58:09 09:50:48 29
IM Lake Placid 2010-07-25 09:37:13 09:42:50 09:42:50 16

Results for John Hirsch (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Lake Placid 2010-07-25 09:36:33 09:42:09 09:45:20 15
IM Lake Placid 2006-07-23 09:45:26 09:37:17 09:49:22 20
IM Florida 2005-11-05 09:32:03 09:35:02 09:57:24 25
IM Arizona 2005-04-09 10:23:47 10:23:47 10:23:47 28

Results for Raymond Botelho (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Arizona 2010-11-21 10:01:55 10:17:05 09:59:35 32
IM Florida 2008-11-01 09:05:26 09:25:20 09:41:32 23
IM Florida 2007-11-03 09:45:16 10:03:06 10:03:06 47

Results for Arland Macasieb (PHL)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Coeur d’Alene 2011-06-26 10:24:40 10:31:42 10:19:48 16
IM Florida 2010-11-06 09:48:00 10:05:39 10:14:33 30
IM Lake Placid 2010-07-25 10:13:33 10:19:31 10:19:42 24
IM Lake Placid 2008-07-20 10:15:35 10:15:07 10:19:55 23
IM Lake Placid 2006-07-23 10:37:18 10:28:26 10:28:26 26

Results for Sergio Quezada (MEX)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM St. George 2010-05-01 10:55:32 10:50:13 10:26:00 24
IM Canada 2009-08-30 10:02:53 10:08:18 10:07:15 29
IM Wisconsin 2007-09-09 10:05:29 10:05:25 10:05:25 20

Results for Tyler Lord (CAN)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Florida 2010-11-06 10:20:24 10:39:01 10:39:01 35

Results for Ryan Grant (CAN)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Wisconsin 2009-09-13 11:39:53 11:39:21 11:21:27 24
IM Lake Placid 2006-07-23 10:46:15 10:37:15 10:37:15 27

Results for Ryan Cain (CAN)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Holden Cameau (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Ryan Kelly (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Heather Wurtele (CAN)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM St. George 2011-05-07 09:30:33 09:32:34 09:34:52 1
IM Arizona 2010-11-21 09:19:10 09:33:15 09:35:27 5
IM Canada 2010-08-29 09:17:17 09:28:13 09:36:05 2
IM St. George 2010-05-01 09:35:26 09:30:46 09:38:59 1
IM Coeur d’Alene 2009-06-21 09:34:24 09:39:59 09:43:07 3
IM Canada 2008-08-24 09:39:51 09:45:39 09:45:10 3
IM Coeur d’Alene 2008-06-22 09:38:58 09:44:39 09:44:39 1

Results for Tine Deckers (BEL)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Texas 2011-05-21 09:19:27 09:27:55 09:40:09 5
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 09:41:31 09:44:24 09:43:21 19
IM France 2010-06-27 09:21:29 09:36:19 09:43:03 1
IM South Africa 2010-04-25 09:29:58 09:38:54 09:45:24 3
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 09:47:00 09:44:40 09:48:37 12
IM France 2009-06-28 09:30:29 09:39:07 09:51:32 1
IM Florida 2006-11-04 10:08:47 10:18:09 10:18:09 13

Results for Tyler Stewart (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Texas 2011-05-21 09:13:13 09:21:35 09:40:15 4
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 09:41:11 09:44:04 09:45:20 18
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 09:42:41 09:40:22 09:45:43 10
IM Coeur d’Alene 2009-06-21 09:23:21 09:28:49 09:47:14 1
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 10:24:11 10:23:50 09:53:44 30
IM Florida 2007-11-03 09:09:18 09:26:02 09:41:29 3
IM Lake Placid 2007-07-22 09:47:38 09:42:54 09:48:27 2
IM Hawaii 2006-10-21 09:53:41 09:50:57 09:52:23 19
IM Hawaii 2005-10-15 09:54:32 09:54:18 09:54:18 17

Results for Jackie Arendt (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM St. George 2011-05-07 10:06:36 10:08:44 10:08:44 2

Results for Jacqui Gordon (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Texas 2011-05-21 09:27:20 09:35:55 10:11:04 8
IM Florida 2010-11-06 10:09:42 10:28:00 10:19:16 9
IM Lake Placid 2009-07-26 10:08:19 10:08:26 10:17:05 6
IM South Africa 2009-04-05 09:46:26 09:57:43 10:18:53 4
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 10:20:49 10:20:28 10:23:53 27
IM Lake Placid 2008-07-20 10:31:53 10:31:24 10:24:47 6
IM Arizona 2008-04-13 10:32:32 10:38:18 10:22:39 15
IM Florida 2007-11-03 09:51:46 10:09:48 10:16:03 15
IM Canada 2007-08-26 10:29:13 10:30:36 10:19:44 14
IM Hawaii 2006-10-21 10:08:41 10:05:53 10:05:53 29

Results for Marie Danais (CAN)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Lake Placid 2010-07-25 10:44:08 10:50:24 10:24:30 12
IM Lake Placid 2009-07-26 10:15:30 10:15:37 10:19:26 8
IM Florida 2008-11-01 10:01:51 10:23:49 10:20:06 8
IM Arizona 2008-04-13 10:48:02 10:53:56 10:19:29 16
IM Florida 2007-11-03 09:40:24 09:58:05 10:13:57 12
IM Wisconsin 2007-09-09 10:08:30 10:08:26 10:16:34 6
IM Lake Placid 2007-07-22 10:17:01 10:12:03 10:18:06 9
IM Hawaii 2006-10-21 10:05:29 10:02:42 10:19:25 25
IM Canada 2006-08-27 10:17:10 10:16:11 10:23:01 7
IM Arizona 2006-04-09 10:29:53 10:32:36 10:24:48 11
IM Florida 2005-11-05 09:56:24 09:59:31 10:22:26 8
IM Wisconsin 2005-09-11 10:39:34 10:22:29 10:30:50 5
IM Lake Placid 2005-07-24 10:11:43 10:06:39 10:35:22 6
IM Arizona 2005-04-09 11:06:34 11:06:34 11:06:34 16

Results for Miranda Alldritt (CAN)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Switzerland 2011-07-10 12:52:27 13:11:43 10:51:30 8
IM France 2011-06-26 10:56:48 11:03:00 10:51:30 11
IM Texas 2011-05-21 10:19:12 10:28:34 10:50:00 14
IM St. George 2011-05-07 11:51:45 11:54:16 10:53:06 8
IM Canada 2010-08-29 12:47:12 13:02:14 10:42:51 18
IM St. George 2010-05-01 10:40:59 10:35:47 10:42:51 7
IM Arizona 2009-11-22 09:53:01 10:07:00 10:43:52 12
IM Coeur d’Alene 2009-06-21 13:39:19 13:47:16 10:49:11 14
IM New Zealand 2009-03-07 10:18:02 10:29:39 10:49:11 10
IM Arizona 2008-11-23 10:06:24 10:13:02 10:51:47 12
IM Wisconsin 2008-09-07 10:54:52 10:55:35 10:57:12 12
IM Canada 2008-08-24 11:21:23 11:28:12 10:57:27 17
IM Coeur d’Alene 2008-06-22 10:18:14 10:24:18 10:52:01 8
IM Arizona 2008-04-13 10:21:42 10:27:22 10:57:37 13
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 10:43:58 10:45:00 11:04:44 48
IM Arizona 2007-04-15 10:16:31 10:20:08 11:09:48 5
IM Canada 2006-08-27 11:15:34 11:14:30 11:23:59 17
IM Coeur d’Alene 2006-06-25 11:22:19 11:22:25 11:26:57 19
IM Hawaii 2005-10-15 11:27:13 11:26:56 11:28:53 55
IM Canada 2005-08-29 11:19:15 11:17:43 11:29:55 14
IM Coeur d’Alene 2005-06-26 11:42:45 11:42:45 11:42:45 5

Results for Amber Ferreira (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM St. George 2011-05-07 11:36:03 11:38:30 11:38:30 7

IM UK 2011 – Predictions (Details Post)

Male Race Participants

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Stephen Bayliss GBR 08:42:14 08:49:38 70
2 Nick Saunders GBR 08:49:57 08:57:28 107
3 Philip Graves GBR 08:51:29 08:59:01 112
4 Domenico Passuello ITA 09:01:02 09:08:42 158
5 Gregorio Morales ESP 09:01:42 09:09:23 163
6 Romain Guillaume FRA 09:10:11 09:17:59 226
7 Toby Radcliffe GBR 09:16:51 09:24:44 278
8 Chris Brands NLD 09:17:45 09:25:39 287
9 Paul Hawkins GBR 09:35:02 09:43:11 397

Female Race Participants

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Tine Deckers BEL 09:32:03 09:40:09 29
2 Yvette Grice GBR 10:17:51 10:26:36 164
3 Monika Stadlmann AUT 10:18:35 10:27:21 170
4 Joanna Carritt GBR 10:24:38 10:33:29 183
5 Conny Dauben GER 10:42:50 10:51:57 219

Results for Stephen Bayliss (GBR)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Austria 2011-07-03 08:16:47 08:38:51 08:49:38 5
IM UK 2010-08-01 08:46:19 08:53:40 08:50:43 2
IM Austria 2010-07-04 08:31:07 08:50:33 08:50:28 6
IM South Africa 2010-04-25 08:40:28 08:48:37 08:50:28 5
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 09:19:56 09:17:43 08:50:38 47
IM UK 2009-08-02 08:48:30 08:46:00 08:48:18 2
IM Austria 2009-07-05 08:17:06 08:32:27 08:48:30 3
IM Lanzarote 2009-05-23 09:02:15 08:59:35 08:50:02 5
IM South Africa 2009-04-05 08:47:26 08:57:35 08:49:04 4
IM New Zealand 2009-03-07 08:38:29 08:48:14 08:48:09 6
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 08:49:38 08:49:20 08:48:08 18
IM UK 2008-09-07 08:53:59 08:53:01 08:48:00 1
IM Austria 2008-07-13 08:13:53 08:31:04 08:47:21 2
IM South Africa 2008-04-13 08:18:23 08:26:37 08:49:39 1
IM New Zealand 2008-03-01 08:37:03 08:45:00 08:53:08 4
IM Florida 2007-11-03 08:30:59 08:46:33 08:54:32 4
IM UK 2007-08-19 08:38:09 08:44:24 08:56:01 2
IM Brasil 2007-05-27 08:37:03 08:48:06 08:58:28 5
IM Florida 2006-11-04 08:43:41 08:51:44 09:01:02 4
IM Arizona 2006-04-09 09:00:38 09:02:58 09:03:31 14
IM Brasil 2006-01-01 08:35:01 08:41:49 09:03:40 4
IM Florida 2005-11-05 08:47:06 08:49:51 09:11:45 6
IM UK 2005-08-21 09:15:14 09:01:57 09:23:45 4
IM Lanzarote 2005-06-04 09:46:55 09:46:55 09:46:55 12

Results for Nick Saunders (GBR)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 08:49:59 08:52:37 08:57:28 34
IM Regensburg 2010-08-01 08:33:19 08:39:33 08:58:31 5
IM Florida 2009-11-07 08:31:44 08:49:01 09:03:27 4
IM UK 2008-09-07 09:18:25 09:17:24 09:07:19 5
IM Switzerland 2008-07-13 08:47:23 09:01:43 09:04:56 5
IM South Africa 2008-04-13 08:42:24 08:51:01 09:05:52 6
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 09:05:41 09:06:34 09:11:25 34
IM New Zealand 2007-03-03 08:57:31 09:01:33 09:13:43 5
IM UK 2006-08-16 09:07:26 09:10:18 09:21:50 6
IM UK 2005-08-21 09:51:19 09:37:10 09:37:10 11

Results for Philip Graves (GBR)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 09:16:02 09:13:49 08:59:01 43
IM UK 2009-08-02 08:45:52 08:43:23 08:43:23 1

Results for Domenico Passuello (ITA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM France 2011-06-26 09:03:34 09:08:42 09:08:42 7

Results for Gregorio Morales (ESP)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Lanzarote 2011-05-21 09:03:45 08:59:31 09:09:23 6
IM UK 2010-08-01 09:03:54 09:11:30 09:11:39 4
IM Lanzarote 2010-05-22 09:15:26 09:14:00 09:11:41 11
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 08:58:35 08:56:27 09:11:04 28
IM Lanzarote 2009-05-23 09:01:06 08:58:26 09:15:17 4
IM Wisconsin 2008-09-07 09:04:29 09:05:05 09:21:09 6
IM Lanzarote 2008-05-24 09:11:35 09:08:58 09:27:32 5
IM Lanzarote 2007-05-20 09:25:23 09:23:18 09:38:15 6
IM Lanzarote 2006-05-20 09:48:43 09:44:18 09:49:36 17
IM Lanzarote 2005-06-04 09:56:34 09:56:34 09:56:34 16

Results for Romain Guillaume (FRA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Florida 2010-11-06 08:52:16 09:08:14 09:17:59 18
IM Wisconsin 2010-09-12 08:49:42 08:52:55 09:19:46 2
IM France 2010-06-27 08:58:56 09:13:10 09:25:31 5
IM Florida 2009-11-07 08:47:52 09:05:42 09:28:38 10
IM Switzerland 2009-07-12 08:53:07 09:06:37 09:34:45 11
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 09:15:56 09:15:37 09:43:45 48
IM France 2008-06-22 09:19:24 09:24:19 09:53:33 10
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 10:06:02 10:07:01 10:07:14 79
IM Switzerland 2007-06-24 09:37:17 09:51:42 10:07:21 17
IM Switzerland 2006-07-02 10:13:40 10:28:06 10:28:06 20

Results for Toby Radcliffe (GBR)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM South Africa 2011-04-10 09:01:17 09:13:06 09:24:44 13
IM Florida 2010-11-06 09:01:02 09:17:16 09:27:08 19
IM UK 2010-08-01 09:25:28 09:33:22 09:29:20 6
IM Arizona 2009-11-22 09:12:44 09:25:46 09:28:17 18
IM UK 2009-08-02 09:33:49 09:31:06 09:28:58 11
IM Florida 2008-11-01 09:05:41 09:25:36 09:28:15 24
IM UK 2008-09-07 09:30:36 09:29:34 09:29:13 6
IM UK 2007-08-19 09:15:21 09:22:03 09:29:02 14
IM Austria 2007-07-08 09:16:25 09:29:17 09:33:40 21
IM Austria 2005-07-03 09:41:28 09:41:28 09:41:28 29

Results for Chris Brands (NLD)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM France 2011-06-26 09:49:31 09:55:05 09:25:39 15
IM Canada 2010-08-29 09:05:03 09:15:44 09:18:52 15
IM Austria 2010-07-04 08:52:52 09:13:08 09:19:34 18
IM Lanzarote 2010-05-22 09:18:04 09:16:37 09:21:18 12
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 09:35:15 09:32:58 09:22:58 61
IM Lanzarote 2009-05-23 09:16:01 09:13:17 09:18:45 10
IM Switzerland 2008-07-13 09:14:10 09:29:13 09:22:03 18
IM Canada 2006-08-27 09:05:42 09:04:50 09:15:40 8
IM Lanzarote 2006-05-20 09:31:40 09:27:23 09:27:23 12

Results for Paul Hawkins (GBR)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM France 2010-06-27 14:16:23 14:39:00 09:43:11 18
IM UK 2009-08-02 09:28:35 09:25:54 09:43:11 10
IM UK 2008-09-07 10:06:40 10:05:34 12:28:48 12
IM Switzerland 2007-06-24 14:00:55 14:21:54 14:24:37 25
IM France 2006-06-24 14:15:35 14:28:14 14:28:14 22

Results for Tine Deckers (BEL)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Texas 2011-05-21 09:19:27 09:27:55 09:40:09 5
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 09:41:31 09:44:24 09:43:21 19
IM France 2010-06-27 09:21:29 09:36:19 09:43:03 1
IM South Africa 2010-04-25 09:29:58 09:38:54 09:45:24 3
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 09:47:00 09:44:40 09:48:37 12
IM France 2009-06-28 09:30:29 09:39:07 09:51:32 1
IM Florida 2006-11-04 10:08:47 10:18:09 10:18:09 13

Results for Yvette Grice (GBR)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM South Africa 2011-04-10 09:59:28 10:12:33 10:26:36 9
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 10:14:49 10:17:52 10:29:07 28
IM UK 2010-08-01 10:01:03 10:09:27 10:31:10 1
IM Lanzarote 2010-05-22 10:22:39 10:21:02 10:35:43 6
IM Wisconsin 2009-09-13 10:41:24 10:40:54 10:39:21 8
IM France 2009-06-28 10:24:06 10:33:32 10:38:57 8
IM UK 2008-09-07 10:35:08 10:33:59 10:40:39 4
IM France 2008-06-22 10:49:08 10:54:50 10:42:53 10
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 10:37:51 10:38:53 10:37:25 44
IM UK 2007-08-19 10:25:42 10:33:14 10:36:33 5
IM UK 2006-08-16 10:37:39 10:40:59 10:40:59 7

Results for Monika Stadlmann (AUT)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Austria 2011-07-03 09:53:56 10:20:19 10:27:21 11
IM Austria 2009-07-05 11:45:45 12:07:32 10:49:56 13
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 10:52:26 10:52:04 10:30:29 39
IM UK 2008-09-07 10:35:27 10:34:18 10:24:59 5
IM France 2008-06-22 10:36:13 10:41:48 10:21:54 7
IM Austria 2007-07-08 10:02:11 10:16:07 10:12:57 10
IM Austria 2006-07-16 09:58:05 10:11:48 10:11:18 12
IM Hawaii 2005-10-15 10:19:42 10:19:27 10:10:58 35
IM Austria 2005-07-03 10:01:46 10:01:46 10:01:46 7

Results for Joanna Carritt (GBR)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Lanzarote 2011-05-21 11:09:59 11:04:46 10:33:29 7
Challenge Wanaka 2011-01-01 10:57:21 10:52:05 10:29:06 3
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 10:23:05 10:26:11 10:25:48 35
IM UK 2010-08-01 10:16:22 10:24:59 10:25:45 3
IM France 2010-06-27 10:07:44 10:23:47 10:25:53 8
IM Lanzarote 2010-05-22 10:24:30 10:22:53 10:26:18 7
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 10:19:25 10:16:57 10:27:08 30
IM Lanzarote 2009-05-23 10:45:32 10:42:21 10:29:44 7
IM Wisconsin 2008-09-07 10:33:37 10:34:19 10:25:59 11
IM Germany 2008-07-06 09:43:19 10:06:19 10:23:18 8
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 10:23:15 10:24:15 10:30:46 37
IM Switzerland 2007-06-24 09:57:28 10:12:23 10:34:23 8
IM Lanzarote 2007-05-20 10:59:25 10:56:59 10:56:59 7

Results for Conny Dauben (GER)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Australia 2010-03-28 10:46:03 10:56:54 10:51:57 6
IM France 2008-06-22 10:34:29 10:40:03 10:46:09 6
IM France 2005-06-19 11:00:38 11:00:38 11:00:38 7

IM Switzerland 2011 – Analyzing Results

Race Conditions

This year’s IM Switzerland was pretty typical – an adjustment of 13:28 means that it was just a little bit faster than the course rating of 12:01 implies. However, there were a bit fewer pro athletes than normal – 17 as compared to the more typical 30+ athletes. In contrast, the start list for IM Germany looks pretty full, so WTC seems to succeed in steering pro athletes to fewer, better paid races.

Male Results

On the men’s side, Ronnie Schildknecht successfully defended his title:

Rank Name Nation Actual Time Expected Time
1 Ronnie Schildknecht SWI 08:19:51 08:21:30
2 Clemente Alonso-McKernan ESP 08:27:56 08:38:24
3 Mathias Hecht SWI 08:30:26 08:30:02
4 Cyril Viennot FRA 08:36:02 08:28:50
5 Mike Aigroz SWI 08:38:21 08:39:17
6 Sergio Marques PRT 08:48:01 08:51:56
7 Rafael Wyss SWI 08:51:36 09:04:28
8 Mike Schifferle SWI 08:53:57 09:01:52
9 Ueli Bieler SUI 09:07:08 09:08:30
10 Daniel Muller GER 09:46:22 09:22:23
11 Damien Landon FRA 09:49:55 09:25:35
12 Marek Nemcik SVK 11:44:49 12:00:32

He had to work quite hard for it on the run, where he battled with Mathias Hecht for quite some time. Mathias came in third after being overtaken by the fastest runner, Clemente Alonso.

Female Results

With Karin Thürig, we also had another repeat winner on the female side:

Rank Name Nation Actual Time Expected Time
1 Karin Thuerig SWI 09:03:26 09:09:23
2 Amy Marsh USA 09:11:36 09:19:27
3 Erika Csomor HUN 09:36:59 09:20:04
4 Regula Rohrbach SUI 09:42:18 n/a
5 Jana Candrova CZE 10:09:15 10:15:46
6 Kathrin Mannweiler GER 11:08:46 n/a
7 Megumi Shigaki JPN 11:49:02 n/a
8 Miranda Alldritt CAN 12:52:27 10:35:15

Amy Marsh came in second (again improving her rating), while Erika Csomor surprisingly raced again (just one week after her great time in Austria) and came in third.

Challenge Roth 2011 – Analyzing Results

Race Conditions

Just one week after Austria, the world record was broken again – this time, both the men’s and the women’s world best times were broken. As Austria the week before (race adjustment of 23:59), conditions in Roth were really good, even a bit better: Roth 2011 gets an adjustment of 24:25, the fastest I have ever seen and more than four minutes quicker than last year. (It also means that I rank Andreas’ time as quicker than Marino’s time from Austria, but Chrissie’s time from last year was actually a better performance than her time this year.)

Male Results

On the male side, Andreas Raelert bested Marino’s time from Austria a week ago by more than four minutes:

Rank Name Nation Actual Time Expected Time
1 Andreas Raelert GER 07:41:33 07:55:42
2 Sebastian Kienle GER 07:57:06 07:54:37
3 Keegan Williams NZL 08:16:01 08:32:02
4 Christian Ritter GER 08:18:40 08:26:09
5 Gilad Rotem ISR 08:20:11 08:51:36
6 Lothar Leder GER 08:22:00 08:45:46
7 Andriy Yastrebov UKR 08:24:34 08:23:22
8 Andreas Borch   08:25:38 09:05:11
9 Benjamin Sanson FRA 08:27:50 09:39:26
10 Clemens Coenen GER 08:29:26 08:31:22
11 Bernd Hagen GER 08:32:10 08:45:37
12 Bernd Eichhorn GER 08:39:12 08:36:30
13 Andreas Fuchs   08:40:44 08:57:48
14 Manuel Wyss   08:45:13 09:39:43
15 Dion Harrison GBR 08:54:39 09:08:36
16 Jan Strangmuller USA 09:06:59 09:40:35
17 Margus Tamm EST 09:15:08 08:52:48
18 Nicholas Kinsey GBR 09:22:46 09:32:22
19 Tim Sheeper USA 09:39:16 09:10:44
20 Gael Mainard FRA 09:54:35 08:55:07
21 Reinaldo Oliveira BRA 09:56:26 09:23:15
22 Glen Gore Sou 10:17:51 09:21:18
23 Daniel Wells CAN 10:49:44 09:06:59

Expected time is based on athlete’s rating (prior to race) and race conditions.

Although he was in front of Sebastian Kienle the whole day, apparently he felt pushed to the new world record. Andreas improved his rating a bit, securing his first spot in the rankings. Sebastian also put in a great time, going sub-8 for the second time in his second IM-distance race – giving him the 2nd place in the rankings. It would be great to see him race on another course in Kona, but he’s still pretty young. Keegan Williams made another step forward, he seems to be improving all the time.

Female Results

On the female side, Chrissie managed to go even faster than a year ago:

Rank Name Nation Actual Time Expected Time
1 Chrissie Wellington GBR 08:18:13 08:32:29
2 Julia Wagner GER 08:56:23 n/a
3 Rebekah Keat AUS 08:59:22 09:03:02
4 Belinda Harper NZL 09:06:47 10:01:31
5 Belinda Granger AUS 09:12:56 09:18:24
6 Heike Priess GER 09:40:01 10:16:14
7 Alma Sarapuu EST 09:41:42 10:16:17
8 Celia Kuch NZL 09:47:13 10:04:50
9 Sonja Jaarsveld Net 09:56:03 09:24:43
10 Helen Buley Sou 10:11:18 10:09:43
11 Zeljka Saban   10:38:20 11:15:35

Expected time is based on athlete’s rating (prior to race) and race conditions.

German rookie Julia Wagner started her IM-distance career with a sub-9 and a second place. Bek Keat managed to post another sub-9, solidifying her spot in the TOP 10 rankings.

Challenge Roth 2011 – Predictions (Main Post)

As per usual, you can find additional information on the participants in the detail post.

Previous Results

Challenge Roth calls itself “the best of the old races”. It’s been an official IM race until the mid-2000s and managed to survive even after going out on their own. It’s a really fast course with a course rating of 18:54 and has been the site of the just-broken world record time.

It always attracts quite a few really good, strong athletes – mainly from Germany and Europe, so some names may not be that well known in the US. Last year’s race was won by Rasmus Henning in a fantastic time of 7:52 – but even going that fast he had to battle long-distance rookie Sebastian Kienle who posted a 7:59 in his first IM-distance race.

On the women’s side, Chrissie Wellington annihilated the world record with an unbelievable 8:19. (I’d rather avoid the WTC-speak of a “world best at another long distance race in Germany”.)

Male Participants

Sebastian Kienle is back for his second IM-distance race – and he’s going to battle it out with Andreas Raelert:

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Sebastian Kienle GER 07:58:29 (08:16:17)
2 Andreas Raelert GER 08:00:25 08:18:17 1
3 Juergen Zaeck GER 08:22:25 08:41:06 27
4 Andriy Yastrebov UKR 08:28:18 08:47:13 48
5 James Cunnama ZAF 08:28:34 08:47:29 50
6 Christian Ritter GER 08:31:12 08:50:13 67
7 Clemens Coenen GER 08:36:16 08:55:28 88
8 Keegan Williams NZL 08:37:04 08:56:18 95
9 Bernd Eichhorn GER 08:41:22 09:00:46 117
10 Andreas Niedrig GER 08:45:34 09:05:07 136
11 Bernd Hagen GER 08:50:37 09:10:21 164
12 Lothar Leder GER 08:50:56 09:10:41 166
13 Gilad Rotem ISR 08:56:51 09:16:49 212
14 Margus Tamm EST 08:57:48 09:17:48 222
15 Justin Granger AUS 08:58:24 09:18:26 228
16 Andreas Fuchs 09:03:07 09:23:19 266
17 Andreas Borch 09:10:32 09:31:01 310
18 Daniel Wells CAN 09:12:22 09:32:55 323
19 Dion Harrison GBR 09:14:00 09:34:36 331
20 Tim Sheeper USA 09:16:08 09:36:49 348
21 Nicholas Kinsey GBR 09:37:26 09:58:55 494
22 Benjamin Sanson FRA 09:45:08 10:06:54 541
23 Manuel Wyss 09:45:24 10:07:11 543
24 Jan Strangmuller USA 09:45:41 10:07:28 546

Sebastian has just one race result so no “official” rating as of now – it’ll be very interesting to see if he can go as fast as last year! Given his race tactics (usually going out pretty quick on the bike), it’ll be great to follow. There’s been some smack talk on the web and in the German press, underlining the fact that this race appears to be as important as Kona for these German athletes. (An interesting side note: As far as I know, Andreas still has to do an official IM to validate his Kona spot. He doesn’t have much time left, especially if he’s going to race Roth quite hard!)

After these two, there is a bit of a gap. Jürgen Zäck is an “old” athlete coming back for another race, his rating (from one race six years back) is probably not a true reflection of what he’s able to do right now – I’ve got to update the methodology for these rare cases. James Cunnama and Keegan Williams are probably for a fast time – one more thing to watch what these upcoming athletes are going to be able to do.

Female Participants

I don’t think you’ll find anyone willing to beat against Chrissie:

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Chrissie Wellington GBR 08:37:24 08:56:39 1
2 Rebekah Keat AUS 09:08:14 09:28:38 9
3 Belinda Granger AUS 09:23:51 09:44:49 43
4 Sonja Jaarsveld Net 09:30:15 09:51:28 57
5 Heather Gollnick USA 09:32:04 09:53:21 59
6 Belinda Harper NZL 10:07:25 10:30:01 171
7 Celia Kuch NZL 10:10:46 10:33:29 179
8 Helen Buley ZAF 10:15:33 10:38:27 187
9 Alma Sarapuu EST 10:21:46 10:44:54 202
10 Heike Priess 10:22:16 10:45:25 206
11 Zeljka Saban 11:22:15 11:47:38 267

My guess is that she will try to put another quick result in, but I think she’ll not go all out as last year (and try to avoid “weakening” for her Kona prep). Bek Keat and Belinda Granger have raced in Roth a couple of times before and seem to love this race. But they won’t be a match for Chrissie …

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