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IM New York 2012 – Analyzing Results

Race Conditions

There was quite a mixed feedback whether New York was a quick or slow course: A fast swim (with a current) and a slower run course. The results showed that a lot of athletes raced better than their ratings would indicate, resulting in an adjustment (and initial course rating) of 9:23, i.e. a medium quick course, comparable to Melbourne or Cozumel.

Male Results

Jordan Rapp dominated this race with the fastest bike an run splits:

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Actual Time Expected Time
1 Jordan Rapp USA 00:41:45 04:26:34 02:59:21 08:11:18 08:20:32
2 Maxim Kriat UKR 00:41:04 04:35:55 03:04:15 08:24:32 08:27:00
3 Jozsef Major HUN 00:43:47 04:33:09 03:06:12 08:27:00 08:38:30
4 Trevor Wurtele CAN 00:43:38 04:40:03 03:01:21 08:29:20 09:01:05
5 Markus Thomschke GER 00:42:40 04:33:52 03:09:20 08:30:02 09:06:56
6 TJ Tollakson USA 00:39:15 04:31:54 03:18:16 08:33:01 08:39:30
7 Bert Jammaer BEL 00:41:02 04:36:03 03:14:25 08:34:59 08:48:27
8 Pedro Gomez POR 00:42:37 04:41:05 03:11:01 08:38:40 08:39:03
9 Luke Bell AUS 00:39:08 04:37:54 03:18:52 08:39:20 08:40:59
10 Chris McDonald AUS 00:43:34 04:40:37 03:13:39 08:41:30 08:38:58
11 Christian Brader GER 00:43:44 04:32:44 03:22:05 08:42:08 08:52:43
12 Mike Schifferle SUI 00:45:48 04:45:40 03:06:56 08:45:02 09:00:41
13 Michael Lovato USA 00:40:02 04:55:11 03:06:15 08:46:32 08:37:00
14 Michael Wetzel GER 00:45:07 04:52:58 03:09:40 08:51:26 09:06:18
15 Maik Twelsiek GER 00:41:01 04:35:46 03:33:12 08:54:20 08:33:45
16 Paul Ambrose GBR 00:39:12 04:31:56 03:44:31 08:58:59 08:38:59
17 Kevin Taddonio USA 00:47:53 04:47:58 03:22:00 09:02:52 08:49:20
18 Timothy Marr USA 00:39:11 04:37:59 03:44:42 09:05:27 09:21:08
19 Brendan Halpin USA 00:46:48 05:01:36 03:21:51 09:14:13 09:20:09
20 Stefan Riesen SWI 00:47:33 04:35:37 03:48:15 09:16:08 08:38:43
21 Matjaz Kovac SVN 00:43:36 05:02:59 03:38:13 09:30:11 09:49:10
22 Raymond Botelho USA 00:43:42 04:57:18 04:01:20 09:47:04 09:42:51

Female Results

The race on the women’s side was open for a longer time, but Mary Beth Ellis quickly pulled away from Amy Marsh who led after the bike and was also overtaken by Rebekah Keat:

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Actual Time Expected Time
1 Mary Beth Ellis USA 00:40:33 05:04:03 03:14:32 09:02:48 09:08:47
2 Rebekah Keat AUS 00:41:34 05:11:41 03:15:43 09:13:24 09:14:45
3 Amy Marsh USA 00:40:35 05:03:01 03:28:25 09:15:57 09:17:55
4 Sarah Piampiano USA 00:47:14 05:10:49 03:28:29 09:30:29 09:57:08
5 Tamara Kozulina UKR 00:47:23 05:19:02 03:22:27 09:33:23 09:43:44
6 Michelle Bremer NZL 00:45:10 05:13:54 03:32:35 09:36:11 09:37:24
7 Haley Cooper-Scott USA 00:47:17 05:11:11 03:41:53 09:44:17 10:02:58
8 Michelle Mitchell AUS 00:42:59 05:35:24 03:22:50 09:45:42 09:33:32
9 Jacqui Gordon USA 00:45:33 05:23:28 03:35:50 09:48:58 10:03:22
10 Laurel Wassner USA 00:40:36 05:45:28 03:16:32 09:49:24 n/a
11 Kristin Andrews USA 00:47:26 05:35:37 03:22:52 09:50:40 09:50:10
12 Heather Gollnick USA 00:43:18 05:24:40 03:43:03 09:57:44 09:46:23
13 Nina Pekerman ISR 00:45:37 05:28:52 03:42:33 10:01:47 10:07:48
14 Meghan Newcomer USA 00:45:13 05:34:48 03:38:58 10:03:14 n/a
15 Hillary Biscay USA 00:41:33 05:33:11 03:51:56 10:11:40 10:02:22
16 Dede Griesbauer USA 00:40:29 05:27:20 04:54:01 11:07:46 09:48:55

Updated Kona 2012 Odds (after July races)

Now that the July races are over and the first round of Kona qualifiers has been decided, it is time to update the Kona odds.

Men

Some of the top contenders validated their Kona slots in the July races.

Kona2012MenOdds

The main changes are a consequence of the following results:

  • Marino Vanhoenacker won IM Frankfurt, putting him into a solid statistical 2nd biggest favorite for Kona.
  • Andreas Raelert had a sub-standard (for him) results in Frankfurt, so his statistical chances decreased a bit.
  • Cam Brown’s chances decreased a bit – even though he posted a solid result in Roth, it was not on the “winning Kona” level.

Women

There were a few changes on the women’s side as well:

Kona2012WomenOdds

 

Here are the main events resulting in changes:

  • Caroline Steffen won IM Frankfurt in convincing fashion, further closing the gap to Rinnie.
  • Rachel Joyce also had a great result winning in Roth. Maybe she can continue the British dominance in Kona?
  • I finally had to remove Cat Morrison from my Kona odds – she is recovering from an injury and is not going to be able to qualify for Kona 2012. Hopefully she’s going to come back stronger than ever and will be able to play a role in the next years.

Updated TOP 10 Ratings

After all the races in June and July, it was time to update my TOP 10 Ratings page.

Here is a brief look at the changes:

  • After Andreas Raelert’s sub-par (for him) result in Frankfurt, his rating dropped to 8:16:50. This allowed Crowie to move into the first spot with his rating of 8:15:01. Andreas is still second.
  • Dirk Bockel moved up one spot based on his winning result in Regensburg.
  • Julie Dibens hasn’t raced an IM for more than a year, so she dropped out of my ratings. (I still have Chrissie and Karin Thürig in there, their last races were Kona 2011, so they’ll drop out in October.)
  • Similarly, Yvonne van Vlercken hasn’t posted an IM result – she had a number of DNFs. She also dropped out of the ratings.
  • The two “vacated” spots were taken up by Sonja Tajsich (now 8th with a rating of 9:26:20 after racing Challenge Roth) and Linsey Corbin (10th with 9:27:51 after IM Austria).
  • Rebekah Keat moved up a few spots with an improved rating of 9:24:34 – this is a result of adding the Challenge Copenhagen results from 2010 and 2011 (two races she won).

Challenge Kopenhagen 2012 – Predictions (Main Post)

If you are looking for additional information on the participants, you can find a full list of their pro results in the detail post.

Previous Results

Challenge Kopenhagen has been going on since 2010. It was won twice by Tim Berkel (who of course also holds the course record with a 8:07:39) and Rebekah Keat (women’s course record of 8:52:42). So the course is pretty quick, with a course rating of 12:54 (similar to IM Germany and IM Brazil).

Male Participants

Tim Berkel is back to defend his title, and he is the race favorite:

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Tim Berkel AUS 08:28:10 08:40:36 37
2 Jimmy Johnsen DNK 08:33:02 08:45:35 57
3 Keegan Williams NZL 08:34:48 08:47:24 66
4 Mads Vittrup DEN 08:41:07 08:53:52 102
5 Dejan Patrcevic CRO 08:42:19 08:55:06 110
6 Aaron Farlow AUS 08:50:54 09:03:53 157
7 Joseph Spindler GER 08:52:30 09:05:32 171
8 Andreas Borch DEN 08:54:59 09:08:04 185
9 Egoitz Zalakain ESP 09:10:44 09:24:13 314
10 Fabian Kremser SWI 09:39:20 09:53:31 521
11 Elmar Heger GER 09:53:16 10:07:47 610
12 Chris Goodfellow GBR n/a unrated n/a
13 Jacob Frandsen DEN n/a unrated n/a
14 Ulrich Konschak GER n/a unrated n/a

After Tim Berkel, the winning odds show a number of athletes that have the potential for the top spot on the podium:

  • Tim Berkel: 46%
  • Keegan Williams: 18%
  • Jimmy Johnsen: 13%
  • Dejan Patrcevic: 11%
  • Mads Vittrup: 6%
  • Aaron Farlow: 5%

Female Participants

On the female side, Rebekah Keat is scheduled to race New York, so she’s not defending her title. In her absence, German Diana Riesler is both the top-rated athlete and the one with the best winning odds:

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Diana Riesler GER 09:29:16 09:43:12 45
2 Edith Niederfriniger ITA 09:33:41 09:47:43 59
3 Lisbeth Kristensen SWI 09:36:54 09:51:01 68
4 Wenke Kujala GER 09:42:09 09:56:24 78
5 Tamsyn Hayes NZL 09:51:57 10:06:26 114
6 Katja Konschak GER 09:52:39 10:07:09 116
7 Helene Pallesen DEN 09:52:42 10:07:12 118
8 Julia Bohn GER 10:16:38 10:31:43 192
9 Jessica Crafoord SWE n/a unrated n/a

She is followed by two athletes that have had quite a long break, Edith Niderfriniger and Lisbeth Kristensen:

  • Diana Riesler: 35%
  • Edith Niederfriniger: 24%
  • Lisbeth Kristensen: 19%
  • Katja Konschak: 10%
  • Wenke Kujala: 10%
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