Race Conditions

The conditions in Texas were a lot better than in Lanzarote: It might have been hot, but the adjustment of 14:12 still allowed for some fast times. The male course record (8:08 by Eneko Llanos) was in danger, but held when Mathias Hecht faded on the run, and the old women’s record ( 8:57 by Cat Morrison) was beaten.

Male Results

Jordan Rapp raced a smart race and managed to win with a fantastic marathon time:

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Actual Time	Expected Time
1	Jordan Rapp	USA	00:53:36	04:25:43	02:46:55	08:10:44	08:17:27
2	Justin Daerr	USA	00:55:27	04:33:51	02:48:33	08:22:15	08:37:38
3	Mathias Hecht	SWI	00:48:54	04:18:17	03:11:29	08:22:58	08:28:07
4	Jozsef Major	HUN	00:59:16	04:24:54	02:57:30	08:27:19	08:34:26
5	Brandon Marsh	USA	00:48:48	04:35:39	03:01:02	08:30:18	08:53:49
6	Joe Umphenour		00:48:48	04:40:21	03:01:46	08:36:19	08:35:11
7	Rasmus Henning	DNK	00:48:55	04:30:55	03:13:36	08:37:23	08:14:29
8	Christian Brader	GER	00:59:19	04:33:32	03:01:53	08:39:07	08:47:04
9	Matthew Russell	USA	01:04:47	04:39:52	02:53:25	08:42:50	08:52:51
10	Pedro Gomez	POR	00:53:31	04:38:48	03:07:54	08:44:53	08:35:15
11	Jonathan Shearon		00:56:55	04:34:20	03:10:12	08:46:37	n/a
12	Mike Schifferle	SWI	01:02:52	04:41:43	03:00:06	08:51:57	09:00:04
13	Jim Lamastra		00:53:31	04:45:43	03:11:34	08:55:20	n/a
14	Balazs Csoke	HUN	00:48:50	04:36:27	03:38:48	09:09:02	08:53:49
15	Sergio Quezada	MEX	00:53:29	05:02:54	03:33:29	09:36:26	09:57:54
16	Anthony Toth	CAN	00:59:31	04:47:19	03:53:55	09:46:40	09:15:41

Jordan has recovered really well from his horrific bike accident, and seems to be on his way to become a serious Kona contender (once he decides to focus on Kona). Bike leader Mathias Hecht struggled on the run, and was also overtaken by Justin Daerr who snatched his third IM podium in a row (after Louisville and Florida 2011). Pre-race favorite Rasmus Henning also had problems on the run (although I didn’t hear any reports about the cause of his problems) and faded to a 7th place. However, he should already have enough Kona points to be able to qualify, so it’ll be interesting to see if he can perform better on the big island.

Female Results

On the women’s side, Mary Beth Ellis added another IM win to her resume:

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Actual Time	Expected Time
1	Mary Beth Ellis	USA	00:53:32	04:45:52	03:11:09	08:54:58	09:06:37
2	Caitlin Snow	USA	00:55:32	05:08:54	02:51:46	09:01:32	09:27:47
3	Amy Marsh	USA	00:53:33	04:45:51	03:20:13	09:04:00	09:15:54
4	Corinne Abraham		01:04:06	05:08:21	03:01:50	09:18:39	09:33:27
5	Charisa Wernick	USA	00:59:11	05:07:33	03:16:28	09:27:43	09:56:18
6	Sarah Piampiano		01:03:13	05:09:00	03:30:18	09:47:38	09:56:52
7	Christie Sym	AUS	00:59:09	04:58:48	03:53:01	09:55:56	09:47:15
8	Caroline Gregory	USA	01:02:55	05:29:01	03:31:32	10:07:47	09:52:34
9	Jackie Pearce		01:11:33	05:15:30	03:36:28	10:09:39	n/a
10	Tami Ritchie		00:53:33	05:48:25	03:42:19	10:30:05	10:24:56
11	Sandra Soldan		00:53:37	05:37:23	04:04:15	10:42:06	n/a

Apparently, Mary Beth has planned her season so she can perform better in Kona – last year she had to win three summer IMs in order to qualify, this year she should already have enough points. Amy Marsh was leading the race with Mary Beth until after the bike and held on for third place. (The Marsh couple scored a 5th and a 3rd – not quite as good as the Bayliss’s 2nd and 2nd in Lanzarote.) Amy was overtaken by Caitlin Snow who posted a fantastic 2:51 marathon (good for third best overall run split). There seems to be some weird race for the slowest bike split within a sub-9h total race: Rinnie went 5:07:38 on the bike in Melbourne (but finished 9:04), now Caitlin went 5:08:54 (for a total 9:01). They both missed going sub-9h, so that “honor” still belongs to Chrissie Wellington who went 5:05:02 en route to a 8:57 in Australia 2009. (For the men, I have a 5:17:57 by Gerrit Schellens in Lanzarote 2005 – he finished 8:59:26.)

Race Conditions

Conditions on race day seemed pretty hard – I’ve read a lot of reports of a choppy swim, strong winds on the bike and hot temperatures during the run. This resulted in a race adjustment of –6:32 (i.e. more than six mutes slower than a typical course).

Male Results

After swim and bike leader Philip Graves had to abandon on the run, Ironman rookie Victor del Corral won in a convincing fashion, posting the best bike (the only sub-5!) and run times:

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Actual Time	Expected Time
1	Victor Del Corral	ESP	00:53:35	04:54:31	02:50:09	08:44:39	n/a
2	Stephen Bayliss	GBR	00:48:01	05:05:40	02:54:07	08:53:37	08:56:55
3	Sergio Marques	PRT	00:54:42	05:10:14	02:51:33	09:02:58	09:12:31
4	Bert Jammaer	BEL	00:49:40	05:06:12	03:02:11	09:04:41	09:03:51
5	Patrick Jaberg	SWI	00:51:44	05:08:29	02:59:15	09:06:25	09:09:17
6	Petr Vabrousek	CZE	00:54:14	05:10:21	02:55:16	09:07:30	09:04:01
7	Alvaro Velazquez	ESP	00:57:17	05:07:15	03:00:08	09:11:13	09:23:33
8	Xavier Diepart	BEL	00:56:15	05:08:11	03:01:35	09:13:33	09:30:40
9	Bryan Mccrystal	IRE	01:03:38	05:03:09	03:09:32	09:24:04	n/a
10	Remy Vasseur	NED	00:54:33	05:26:14	03:07:45	09:35:37	n/a
11	Esben Hovgaard	DNK	00:54:41	05:20:06	03:16:06	09:37:33	08:54:57
12	Oliver Simon	GBR	00:48:02	05:18:15	03:38:55	09:52:29	09:37:41
13	Ludovic Le Guellec	FRA	00:57:17	05:35:47	03:22:13	10:04:45	n/a

My pre-race favorite Bert Jammaer had his first race after a long injury and raced smart, even if he didn’t quite have the run speed to finish on the podium. These spots were taken up by Stephen Bayliss and Sergio Marques.

Female Results

On the female side, the story of the day was Michelle Vesterby who led from wire to wire winning her first Ironman:

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Actual Time	Expected Time
1	Michelle Vesterby	DNK	00:51:43	05:39:25	03:20:16	09:58:06	09:34:04
2	Bella Bayliss	GBR	00:56:12	05:47:54	03:14:06	10:06:12	09:48:39
3	Heleen Bij De Vaate	NLD	01:05:03	05:35:53	03:29:18	10:17:33	09:55:19
4	Nicole Woysch	GER	00:56:12	05:50:12	03:41:52	10:37:19	10:26:27
5	Saleta Castro	ESP	00:54:35	05:45:30	03:48:52	10:39:34	n/a
6	Tine Holst	DEN	01:07:26	05:50:57	03:33:33	10:40:32	n/a
7	Carla Van Rooijen	NED	01:11:43	05:57:00	03:24:45	10:43:03	n/a
8	Katya Meyers	USA	01:04:46	05:44:52	04:10:24	11:07:55	10:28:04
9	Christine Hemphill	AUS	01:00:40	06:07:07	03:58:14	11:13:45	10:34:54

After having a baby, Bella Bayliss finished in the same place as her husband – truly the “Ironcouple”! She posted the best marathon time and ran her way past Heleen Bij De Vaate into second place.

If you are looking for additional information on the participants, you can find a full list of their pro results in the detail post.

Previous Results

IM Lanzarote is one of the classic IM races – similar to Kona as it is held on a volcanic island with often very hard conditions. It has a course rating of –3:05, meaning it is a bit slower than IM Hawaii. Last year’s winners were Timo Bracht (in a course record of 8:30:34) and Rachel Joyce (9:28:12 – not sure if this is the female course record, my results only go back to 2005 and this is the fastest time I have).

Male Participants

There is no rockstar name on the list, but a few second-tier athletes will look for a prestigious IM win:

Rank	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Rank
1	Kirill Kotshegarov	EST	08:50:10	08:47:10	69
2	Esben Hovgaard	DNK	08:51:34	08:48:33	83
3	Stephen Bayliss	GBR	08:53:31	08:50:30	90
4	Bert Jammaer	BEL	09:00:25	08:57:21	118
5	Philip Graves	GBR	09:00:32	08:57:28	120
6	Petr Vabrousek	CZE	09:00:35	08:57:31	121
7	Simon Billeau	FRA	09:04:23	09:01:18	145
8	Patrick Jaberg	SWI	09:05:49	09:02:43	151
9	Domenico Passuello	ITA	09:08:11	09:05:05	162
10	Sergio Marques	PRT	09:09:02	09:05:55	169
11	Alvaro Velazquez	ESP	09:19:59	09:16:49	245
12	Ueli Bieler	SUI	09:24:56	09:21:44	296
13	Xavier Diepart	BEL	09:27:04	09:23:51	307
14	Nicholas Peter Munoz	ESP	09:27:11	09:23:58	308
15	Oliver Simon	GBR	09:34:02	09:30:47	365
16	Eneko Elosegui	ESP	09:47:21	09:44:01	449
17	Fernando Cuenllas	ESP	09:58:04	09:54:41	525
18	Victor Del Corral	ESP	n/a	unrated	n/a
19	Ludovic Le Guellec	FRA	n/a	unrated	n/a
20	Bryan Mccrystal	IRE	n/a	unrated	n/a
21	Till Schramm	GER	n/a	unrated	n/a
22	David Vazquez	ESP	n/a	unrated	n/a
23	Antonio Cardona	ESP	n/a	unrated	n/a
24	Remy Vasseur	NED	n/a	unrated	n/a
25	Daniel Halksworth	GBR	n/a	unrated	n/a

Here are the winning odds:

• Bert Jammaer: 30%
• Kirill Kotshegarov: 18%
• Stephen Bayliss: 18%
• Philip Graves: 11%
• Petr Vabrousek: 9%

Kirill Kotshegarov may be the best ranked athlete, but he doesn’t have the experience of a Bert Jammaer or a Stephen Bayliss that might be necessary for winning on such a tough course. Philip Graves comes back to IM racing after a two season hiatus – and if these athletes run into issues, “I hate to train so I just race” Petr Vabrousek will be there with a solid result. He has raced more than 50 IMs, but I don’t know if he has ever won one (I don’t have one in my results). Maybe this year in Lanzarote?

For a while it looked as if Andi Böcherer would be a late addition to the race after his DNF in South Africa. He tweeted that he would start, but then decided to take some more time to recover properly.

Female Participants

On the female side, there are also no rockstars, but quite a few solid racers:

Rank	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Rank
1	Michelle Vesterby	DNK	09:30:26	09:27:12	10
2	Bella Bayliss	GBR	09:44:56	09:41:37	39
3	Heleen Bij De Vaate	NLD	09:51:33	09:48:12	55
4	Nicole Woysch	GER	10:22:30	10:18:58	153
5	Katya Meyers	USA	10:24:05	10:20:33	160
6	Christine Hemphill	AUS	10:30:53	10:27:19	181
7	Ute Streiter	AUT	10:35:58	10:32:22	191
8	Zsuzsanna Harsanyi	HUN	11:09:32	11:05:44	248
9	Tine Holst	DEN	n/a	unrated	n/a
10	Carla Van Rooijen	NED	n/a	unrated	n/a
11	Saleta Castro	ESP	n/a	unrated	n/a
12	Melina de Monserratt	PRU	n/a	unrated	n/a
13	Christine Waitz	GER	n/a	unrated	n/a

The winning odds show a picture that is a bit different:

• Heleen Bij De Vaate: 32%
• Michelle Vesterby: 29%
• Bella Bayliss: 27%

Three potential winners, each with a different background: Michelle Vesterby has not yet raced a lot (but managed to post a few fast times), Heleen Bij de Vaate is a very solid racer (even if she doesn’t yet have the speed to win Kona) and Bella Bayliss coming back after having a baby,

If you are looking for additional information on the participants, you can find a full list of their pro results in the detail post.

Previous Results

Last year was the first time IM Texas was held. The course rating is 5:47 – comparable to South Africa or New Zealand. The premier winner on the men’s side was Eneko Llanos in 8:08:20 (followed by Tim O’Donnell and Luke Bell) and on the women’s side Catriona Morrison in 8:57:51.

Male Participants

As last year (when it was the US Championships and a 400 points race), IM Texas managed to draw a pretty strong field (even if it “only” a 2000 points race):

Rank	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Rank
1	Rasmus Henning	DNK	08:22:30	08:27:56	10
2	Jordan Rapp	USA	08:25:23	08:30:51	14
3	Paul Amey	GBR	08:28:28	08:33:58	20
4	Maxim Kriat	UKR	08:29:13	08:34:44	24
5	Mathias Hecht	SWI	08:36:12	08:41:47	40
6	Torsten Abel	GER	08:39:47	08:45:24	57
7	Jozsef Major	HUN	08:42:40	08:48:19	80
8	Justin Daerr	USA	08:45:54	08:51:35	93
9	Kevin Taddonio	USA	08:53:14	08:59:00	129
10	Christian Brader	GER	08:55:29	09:01:17	146
11	Matthew Russell	USA	09:01:22	09:07:13	175
12	Brandon Marsh	USA	09:02:20	09:08:12	183
13	Balazs Csoke	HUN	09:02:26	09:08:18	185
14	Mike Schifferle	SWI	09:08:47	09:14:43	228
15	Erich Kunz	SUI	09:11:52	09:17:50	259
16	Scott Defilippis	USA	09:17:51	09:23:53	308
17	Toby Radcliffe	GBR	09:18:22	09:24:24	313
18	Olly Piggin	CAN	09:19:17	09:25:20	316
19	Anthony Toth	CAN	09:24:31	09:30:38	361
20	Jesse Vondracek	USA	09:27:47	09:33:56	381
21	Mac Brown	USA	09:38:31	09:44:47	457
22	Sergio Quezada	MEX	10:07:21	10:13:55	647
23	Jim Lamastra		n/a	unrated	n/a
24	Robert Wade		n/a	unrated	n/a
25	Benoit Bourguet		n/a	unrated	n/a
26	Jonathan Shearon		n/a	unrated	n/a
27	Alex Weber		n/a	unrated	n/a

Here are the winning odds:

• Jordan Rapp: 33%
• Paul Amey: 26%
• Rasmus Henning: 23%
• Maxim Kriat: 6%
• Mathias Hecht: 6%

Rasmus Henning is the top rated athlete, but he has had some weaker results on the IM distance (especially in Hawaii) which hurt his winning odds. However, he seems to have figured out some of the issues that were plaguing him, as evidenced by his win in Abu Dhabi. Still, I would consider Jordan Rapp as the favorite for the race. He has recovered well from his horrendous bike accident as has shown great form in Wildflower. Paul Amey will be able to show that his strong IM Arizona (when he pushed Eneko Llanos to the finish and nearly managed to go sub-8) was not a fluke. Maxim Kriat is another interesting athlete with a lot of potential. He comes from a short-course background and did IM Floria in 2009 and 2011, both times finishing second. Then there is Mathias Hecht, the winner of St. George in 2011. Lots of potential winners!

Female Participants

On the women’s side, the field mostly comes from the USA:

Rank	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Rank
1	Mary Beth Ellis	USA	09:15:28	09:21:29	7
2	Kathleen Calkins	USA	09:20:26	09:26:30	10
3	Amy Marsh	USA	09:24:46	09:30:53	20
4	Caitlin Snow	USA	09:32:12	09:38:23	35
5	Corinne Abraham	USA	09:43:36	09:49:55	59
6	Caroline Gregory	USA	10:01:51	10:08:22	115
7	Charisa Wernick	USA	10:05:46	10:12:19	133
8	Sarah Piampiano		10:06:25	10:12:59	135
9	Marilyn McDonald	CAN	10:14:07	10:20:46	163
10	Cindy Lewis		10:20:53	10:27:36	182
11	Tami Ritchie		10:34:55	10:41:47	211
12	Amanda McKenzie	USA	10:52:52	10:59:56	242
13	Sandra Soldan		n/a	unrated	n/a
14	Jackie Pearce		n/a	unrated	n/a

The winning odds for the females look as follows:

• Mary Beth Ellis: 40%
• Amy Marsh: 27%
• Caitlin Snow: 18%
• Kathleen Calkins: 11%

Mary Beth Ellis is the clear favorite – after winning three Ironman races last summer to qualify for Kona, she hopefully manages to qualify in fewer races this year so she can properly prepare for Kona. Amy Marsh also has three Ironman wins to her name , while Caitlin Snow will look to win her first one. Kathleen Calkins is a name that most people will not be familiar with – she only has one Ironman pro result (a 7th place in IM Arizona 2011 in 9:12), but she has a lot of experience racing as an age grouper and winning the F30-34 age group in Hawaii.

Corrections:

• Amy pointed out on Twitter she has four IM wins – I missed IM China which I don’t have in my results.
• As Cait pointed out on twitter, she has won an Ironman before: She won IM Lake Placid under her maiden name of “Shea-Kenney”. I have now connected these two “dots” in my data, but it doesn’t really change my predictions.

Thanks to Amy and Cait for pointing out these errors – and sorry for missing your wins.