September 2012

IM Wisconsin 2012 – Analyzing Results

February 26, 2017

Race Conditions

Conditions in Wisconsin were pretty typical: A hot day lead to an adjustment of –2:49 and a new course rating of –3:59.

Male Results

My race favorite Ben Hoffmann pulled away on the bike and held on to that lead on the run, winning by almost 14 minutes:

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Actual Time Expected Time

1 Ben Hoffman USA 00:52:13 04:37:58 02:56:33 08:32:51 08:49:53

2 Eduardo Sturla ARG 00:54:40 04:49:28 02:55:28 08:46:29 08:46:56

3 Michael Goehner GER 00:54:50 04:48:56 03:04:25 08:54:53 08:43:07

4 Justin Daerr USA 00:54:33 04:45:37 03:09:28 08:55:46 08:52:17

5 Blake Becker USA 00:54:40 04:56:49 02:58:44 08:56:35 10:16:58

6 Thomas Gerlach USA 00:54:42 04:45:21 03:12:19 08:58:20 09:46:40

7 Andres Castillo Latorre COL 00:49:01 04:53:47 03:13:04 09:02:25 09:18:24

8 Kevin Taddonio USA 01:04:47 04:52:15 03:01:50 09:05:35 09:06:05

9 Nick Waninger USA 00:54:35 05:06:22 03:00:54 09:07:35 08:51:33

10 Dominik Berger AUT 00:50:55 04:55:24 03:18:45 09:11:34 09:13:29

11 Billy Edwards USA 01:03:42 04:56:49 03:11:05 09:17:44 09:31:55

12 Markus Ressler AUT 00:54:11 04:53:35 03:29:36 09:24:17 09:12:36

13 Jonathan Shearon USA 00:54:41 04:51:17 03:36:02 09:28:54 08:58:13

14 Jared Milam USA 00:54:36 05:26:16 03:04:59 09:32:40 09:15:39

15 Ernst Moser AUT 00:58:35 05:00:16 03:31:55 09:37:04 09:11:57

16 Jesse Vondracek USA 00:58:48 05:22:50 03:15:53 09:43:54 09:38:35

Female Results

On the females side, Elizabeth Lyles returned to IM racing with a win, beating best-rated Kathleen Calkins, who lead for a long time but finally finished in fourth place:

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Actual Time Expected Time

1 Elizabeth Lyles USA 01:00:41 05:27:29 02:59:33 09:34:35 n/a

2 Beth Walsh USA 01:01:44 05:30:17 02:59:54 09:38:42 10:05:48

3 Charisa Wernick USA 01:00:41 05:29:57 03:05:58 09:43:54 10:07:43

4 Kathleen Calkins USA 00:54:46 05:21:37 03:23:55 09:48:13 09:31:17

5 Hillary Biscay USA 00:54:39 05:34:27 03:21:06 09:57:53 10:17:34

6 Kim Loeffler USA 01:08:36 05:28:34 03:25:24 10:10:47 09:49:53

7 Whitney Garcia USA 01:01:24 05:33:04 03:32:24 10:14:32 10:06:14

8 Ariane Monticeli BRA 01:08:42 05:46:04 03:18:28 10:20:18 10:21:17

Kona 2012 – Work on my Rating Report has started!

September 28, 2012

I’ve started to work on my Kona 2012 Rating Report. As last year, there will be information on

the Kona pro field (men and women),
the previous results of the Kona participants and
my predictions for Kona 2012.

This year’s report will also have some additional information:

who has raced well in Kona
a run-focused comparison chart .. how much time can Crowie afford to be behind another athlete after the bike?

It going to be a 25-page-plus PDF that will be the ideal information to have when following the Kona coverage. If you’re interested in the report and aren’t on my mailing list, please subscribe using the form in the sidebar.

Kona 2012 Qualification: August Update on KPR Standings

September 4, 2012

At the time that I’m writing this article, all the races offering KPR points for Kona 2012 have been completed and WTC has updated their rankings to show which PROs have already accepted or declined their July slots and which PROs will be able to claim the remaining August slots.

Athletes who have declined their July slots and those that got a roll-down slot

There are not too many PROs that have declined their Kona slot:

Carrie Lester (AUS)
I don’t know why Carrie turned down her slot.
Corinne Abraham (GBR)
She posted her reasons on her blog. Basically, she wants to race some more races in 2012, and feels that Kona would end her season and thus does not make sense from a business perspective.
Raynard Tissink (ZAF)
As I understand it, Raynard ended his professional triathlon career after Kona 2011. He raced IM South Africa 2012 “for fun” (validating his slot), but is not interested in racing Kona 2012.

The roll down went to the following athletes (points are from end of July, they may have changed by now by including additional results):

Sara Gross (CAN) 4.415 points
Mareen Hufe (GER) 4.400 points
Michael Raelert (GER) 3.830 points

Athletes eligible for an August slot

In August there are five more women that will get a Kona slot:

Rebekah Keat (AUS) 6.630 points
Amy Marsh (USA) 6.615 points
Sarah Piampiano (USA) 6.405 points
Michelle Gailey (AUS) 5.540 points
Emi Sakai (JAP) 5.040 points

On the men’s side, we have the following ten athletes:

Jordan Rapp (USA) 6.000 points
Jozsef Major (HUN) 5.920 points
Maxim Kriat (UKR) 5.720 points
Trevor Wurtele (CAN) 5.020 points
Jan Raphael (GER) 4.800 points
Andi Böcherer (GER) 4.770 points
Pedro Gomes (PRT) 4.710 points
Markus Thomschke (GER) 4.600 points
Jason Shortis (AUS) 4.380 points
Bart Aernouts (BEL) 4.210 points

Some of these athletes may decline their slots, so there may be some roll down. The first athletes that may get a slot that way are Tamara Kozulina (UKR, 5.020 points) and Christian Brader (GER, 3.820 points).

IM Wisconsin 2012 – Predictions (Main Post)

February 26, 2017

If you are looking for additional information on the participants, you can find a full list of their pro results in the detail post.

Previous Results

Wisconsin is one of the slower courses, with a course rating of –4:09 it is just a bit slower than Kona. It is usually quite hot and the bike course is rolling, so if you don’t race smart there is a good chance of blowing up later in the race.

Last year’s winners were Ezekiel Morales (ARG) in 8:45:18 and Jessica Jacobs (USA) in 9:41:03, short of the course records of 8:38:32 (Joe Gambles, 2010) and 9:27:26 (Gina Crawford, also 2010).

Wisconsin is the first race to collect KPR points for Kona 2013. Even if it is “only” a 1.000 points race, there are already athletes that want to get a head start for the 2013 season.

Male Participants

Eduardo Sturla has the best rating of the male pros:

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank

1 Eduardo Sturla ARG 08:48:13 08:44:12 50

2 Ben Hoffman USA 08:51:11 08:47:08 64

3 Nick Waninger 08:52:50 08:48:47 80

4 Justin Daerr USA 08:53:35 08:49:31 84

5 Kevin Taddonio USA 09:07:25 09:03:15 154

6 Markus Ressler AUT 09:13:57 09:09:44 201

7 Ian Mikelson USA 09:14:11 09:09:58 202

8 Dominik Berger AUT 09:14:49 09:10:36 209

9 Zach Ruble USA 09:14:56 09:10:43 211

10 Jared Milam USA 09:17:00 09:12:46 225

11 Toby Radcliffe GBR 09:27:55 09:23:36 313

12 Billy Edwards USA 09:33:19 09:28:57 345

13 Peter Kotland USA 09:35:52 09:31:29 361

14 Jesse Vondracek USA 09:40:00 09:35:35 394

15 Thomas Gerlach USA 09:48:06 09:43:37 443

16 Blake Becker USA 10:18:28 10:13:46 633

17 Greg Close USA n/a unrated n/a

However, I consider Ben Hoffman as the race favorite and Justin Daerr has about the same winning odds as Eduardo:

Ben Hoffman: 35%
Justin Daerr: 28%
Eduardo Sturla: 26%

Female Participants

There is a similar situation in the women’s field. Kathleen Calkins has the best rating (but from only one result):

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank

1 Kathleen Calkins USA 09:32:41 09:28:19 13

2 Kim Loeffler USA 09:51:19 09:46:49 54

3 Kate Bevilaqua AUS 10:01:53 09:57:18 82

4 Beth Walsh USA 10:07:16 10:02:39 96

5 Whitney Garcia USA 10:07:43 10:03:05 99

6 Charisa Wernick USA 10:09:11 10:04:33 108

7 Danielle Sullivan USA 10:15:51 10:11:10 133

8 Hillary Biscay USA 10:19:04 10:14:21 142

9 Katya Meyers USA 10:31:31 10:26:43 180

10 Suzanne Zelazo CAN 11:00:56 10:55:54 245

11 Elizabeth Lyles n/a unrated n/a

12 Andrea Hutchins n/a unrated n/a

However, her rating is quite a lot better than the next athletes, so she also has the best winning odds:

Kathleen Calkins: 32%
Kim Loeffler: 30%
Kate Bevilaqua: 18%
Charisa Wernick: 13%