July 2016

Race Conditions

The Roth course is ideal for fast times, and this year the weather was good as well – fresh in the morning with the sun quickly coming out,  temperatures around 28°C by the time the Pros started their run and absolutely no rain. While a number of athletes had great races (including of course the winners Jan Frodeno and Daniela Ryf with their fantastic times) the overall times were much in line with what I have analyzed for Roth before: The overall adjustment of 19:46 leads to a new course rating of 18:54, and the individual adjustments for the swim, bike and run legs were “Roth normal” as well – and very much in line with 2011, the year that Chrissie Wellington and Andreas Raelert set the world records.

Of course the highlight of the race was Jan Frodeno setting a new world record on the Ironman distance: His 7:35:39 was almost six minutes quicker than Andi Raelert’s time from 2011. But there were a number of other notable records as well:

• Jan’s swim time of 45:22 beat the old Pro course record of Pete Jacobs from 2009.
• Jan’s 4:08:07 is the fastest bike time of 2016, also beating the course record set by Andrew Starykowicz last year by a minute.
• Daniela’s bike time of 4:31:29 is the fastest ever female bike time over the Ironman-distance. (The previous fastest time was 4:35:29 by Caroline Steffen at IM Melbourne 2012.)
• Jan’s 2:39 run was the fastest run of 2016, but only for 20 minutes until Joe Skipper posted a 2:38:52 – fastest run of 2016 and also a new course record.
• Joe Skipper’s 7:56:23 is a new British Ironman record and also the first sub-8 by a British athlete.
• Cyril Vienot’s 8:02:44 is a new French Ironman record.

I’ve had a great time following the race in Roth, enjoying the race and it’s fantastic atmosphere. Anyone who has not ridden the Solarer Berg before, have a look at fourth place finisher Laura Siddall riding through the crowd, and put this race on your bucket list!

Male Race Results

It was clear from the start that Jan Frodeno wanted to really go for the world record as he had announced before the race. He quickly swam away from the field and by the end of the swim he was already more than 90 seconds ahead. He continued to put time into the others, and even even a small crash when he overcooked a corner on a downhill couldn’t slow him down. By the time he reached T2 he had added almost another ten minutes to his lead and was well ahead of world record pace. He continued to push on the run (posting a 2:39, another personal best) and broke the world record by almost six minutes. A fantastic performance by Jan, and one that shows that he’ll be the clear favorite to defend his title in Kona.

Second place went to Joe Skipper who finally managed to put together a good bike ride and a great run. He was riding in the third bike group with Cyril Viennot and some others, and while a 4:21 is not slow he still lost some time to the second group with Nils Frommhold, Tyler Butterfield and Nick Kastelein. On the run Joe was reeling in one athlete after another and even managed to overtake Nils in the last few kilometers to claim second place in a well executed race.

Third place went to defending Champion Nils Frommhold. A sub-8 is nothing to be ashamed of, but Nils seemed disappointed that Jan proved he is a step or two above everyone else. Compared to the great races that Frodo and Joe had, Nils’s day pales a little bit. He quickly lost contact to Jan on the swim, then rode with Tyler and Nick but the gap to Jan increased with every split. Nils then had a good 2:48 run but couldn’t make any inroads into Frodo’s lead. Then Joe Skipper took second place from him just a few k’s from the finish. I still think that Nils should be proud of his race, especially after his 29th place in Kona and his DNF in Texas he had a solid race even when things didn’t go quite the way he was hoping for. It’s now time for him to plan his second half of the 2016 season – and he is looking forward to hist first child in November. With extra “daddy power” you can expect him to be back in Kona 2017!

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time	Diff to expected	Prize Money
1	Jan Frodeno	GER	00:45:22	04:08:07	02:39:18	07:35:39	-19:00	EUR 20000
2	Joe Skipper	GBR	00:52:36	04:21:12	02:38:52	07:56:23	-19:45	EUR 11000
3	Nils Frommhold	GER	00:46:59	04:17:34	02:48:50	07:57:49	-05:25	EUR 6500
4	Cyril Viennot	FRA	00:52:19	04:21:59	02:45:16	08:02:44	-13:47	EUR 4000
5	Nick Kastelein	AUS	00:46:57	04:19:31	02:56:02	08:05:03	n/a	EUR 2750
6	Tyler Butterfield	BMU	00:48:56	04:17:18	03:08:46	08:18:39	01:35	EUR 1500
7	Fabian Rahn	GER	00:55:44	04:33:04	02:47:56	08:20:11	n/a	EUR 1100
8	Per Bittner	GER	00:49:00	04:32:03	02:57:25	08:21:28	-02:29	EUR 950
9	Jan Raphael	GER	00:48:58	04:32:28	03:00:40	08:24:55	04:52	EUR 800
10	Tobias Heining	GER	00:48:58	04:34:14	03:00:18	08:26:43	n/a	EUR 750
11	Marcel Bischof	GER	00:55:20	04:38:37	02:50:33	08:27:48	-23:49
12	Jordan Bryden	CAN	00:48:22	04:34:45	03:01:35	08:28:38	-52:10
13	Julien Marcq	FRA	00:53:37	04:41:51	02:58:35	08:37:21	n/a
14	Thomas Naasz	NED	00:55:20	04:40:01	03:00:01	08:39:12	-23:17
15	Henry Beck	GER	00:48:54	04:32:34	03:23:36	08:48:30	-1:08:36
16	Christian Jais	GER	00:55:17	04:34:54	03:20:09	08:53:45	-24:39
17	Ivan Jezko	SVK	00:57:09	04:46:24	03:09:34	08:56:42	-20:25
18	Daniel Mugica Corrales	ESP	00:50:56	04:58:05	03:12:12	09:04:21	n/a
19	Tjardo Visser	NED	00:50:59	04:55:02	03:18:53	09:07:42	17:53
20	Xavier Diepart	BEL	00:55:41	04:54:19	03:15:22	09:09:13	22:53
21	Sergio De La Sotilla	ESP	00:58:26	05:06:34	03:15:22	09:26:26	n/a
22	Rob Bobbaers	BEL	01:01:14	04:54:42	03:42:21	09:43:08	04:32
23	Jeremy Howard	USA	00:52:17	05:19:18	03:32:01	09:47:47	06:30
24	Robert Duncan	USA	01:00:42	05:20:25	03:41:58	10:08:09	n/a
25	Tomas Racek	CZE	01:00:48	05:34:38	04:27:01	11:06:19	25:25
	Thomas Hellriegel	GER	00:49:01	04:42:03		DNF
	Santi Pellejero Gacia	ESP	00:48:55	05:19:57		DNF

Female Race Results

Daniela was as dominating in the women’s race as Jan was in the men’s race – both won by more than 20 minutes ahead of second place. After the frustrating DNF in Frankfurt only two weeks prior to Roth, Dani had a race and result she could enjoy immensely. The fastest time in all three legs and her first marathon under 3 hours lead to a fantastic 8:22, missing Chrissie’s record by only 4 minutes. After the bike she was even under world record pace, something probably no one expected before the race. Dani can be more optimistic about the rest of the season – any doubts after Frankfurt have been blown away with this result. She still has to validate her Kona slot (likely in Zürich next weekend), but after that she’ll focus on defending her 70.3 and Ironman World Champion titles.

As last year second place went to Carrie Lester.  In the pre-race coverage she was hardly mentioned, the focus was initially on a “Yvonne vs. Anja” duel, then shifted to “Daniela vs. Yvonne”. Carrie didn’t seem to be too concerned and was just focused on a good race. She had a good swim, reaching T1 with Michelle Vesterby and Anja Beranek. When Michelle had to drop back with mechanical issues and Yvonne had ridden up to Carrie and Anja, the three were riding together for most of the bike course and reached T2 within a minute of each other.

Anja quickly fell back in the first half of the run and Yvonne did her best to chase down Daniela, but Carrie didn’t loose too much time.. When Yvonne started to struggle as well, Carrie ran by her and took a very satisfying second place with the best relative performance of the day. Yvonne was vomiting towards the end of the run and had to dig deep to stay in third place, posting her 11th sub-9 time.

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time	Diff to expected	Prize Money
1	Daniela Ryf	SUI	00:49:10	04:31:29	02:57:40	08:22:04	-19:14	EUR 20000
2	Carrie Lester	AUS	00:52:23	04:42:50	03:03:38	08:42:13	-28:15	EUR 11000
3	Yvonne Van Vlerken	NED	00:55:14	04:40:29	03:10:58	08:49:35	-08:18	EUR 6500
4	Laura Siddall	GBR	00:55:30	04:47:32	03:05:41	08:51:59	-26:05	EUR 4000
5	Anja Beranek	GER	00:52:24	04:43:10	03:21:56	09:00:20	00:51	EUR 2750
6	Michelle Vesterby	DEN	00:52:29	04:53:29	03:15:52	09:04:32	01:29	EUR 1500
7	Jessica Fleming	AUS	00:55:23	04:58:54	03:19:06	09:16:54	-10:47	EUR 1100
8	Erika Csomor	HUN	00:57:35	04:58:43	03:24:50	09:24:52	11:43	EUR 950
9	Michelle Duffield	AUS	00:55:35	05:10:35	03:23:15	09:33:42	-19:43	EUR 800
10	Jenny Fletcher	CAN	00:55:13	05:06:44	03:29:40	09:36:01	n/a	EUR 750
11	Jenny Latham	GBR	00:55:51	05:25:35	03:14:32	09:40:09	n/a
12	Carla Van Rooijen	NED	01:14:13	05:10:34	03:23:18	09:52:02	02:28
13	Fabiola Corona	MEX	00:55:14	05:20:23	03:38:11	09:56:38	-10:52
14	Caroline Gregory	USA	00:55:36	05:40:49	04:00:21	10:40:01	49:15
	Kathryn Haesner	NZL	00:55:46	05:17:35		DNF
	Monique Grossrieder	SUI	01:00:49	05:22:02		DNF

Race Conditions

The Bolton course continues to be very tough, especially the bike has been very slow again this year. A bike adjustment of -18:18 (and a new bike course rating of -15:31) is among the slowest courses on the circuit, only Lanzarote and Wales are even slower. Lucy Gossage still managed to post a new female bike course record of 5:15:04, improving her 5:22 from 2013. (Tine Deckers was also under the old bike course record.) Compared to last year the overall times were a bit faster, an adjustment of -13:22 lead to winning times of 8:41 (male) and 9:26 (female) – slow compared to other courses, but a bit faster than last year.

Male Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time	Diff to expected	Prize Money
1	Kirill Kotshegarov	EST	00:51:19	04:52:35	02:50:09	08:41:13	-15:48	US$ 10000
2	Markus Thomschke	GER	00:51:21	04:52:38	02:59:13	08:50:03	-15:23	US$ 5000
3	Andrej Vistica	CRO	00:53:25	05:04:50	02:53:36	08:58:50	06:13	US$ 3250
4	Karl-Johan Danielsson	SWE	00:51:14	04:56:46	03:05:32	08:59:48	-11:12	US$ 2500
5	Harry Wiltshire	GBR	00:45:35	05:11:19	03:03:05	09:05:35	-01:00	US$ 1750
6	Patrick Evoe	USA	00:54:10	05:10:09	03:03:15	09:14:33	03:40	US$ 1250
7	Fraser Cartmell	GBR	00:49:01	05:12:03	03:16:57	09:24:31	22:14	US$ 750
8	Chris Whitcombe	GBR	00:48:52	05:32:56	03:25:25	09:55:00	n/a	US$ 500
9	Graeme Stewart	GBR	00:51:16	05:21:13	03:43:17	10:06:20	46:13
10	Eneko Elosegui	ESP	00:59:16	05:32:03	03:30:57	10:09:21	21:19
	Romain Guillaume	FRA	00:45:37	04:54:41		DNF
	Peter Kern	GER	00:53:26	05:30:36		DNF

Kirill and Markus secured their Kona slots by finishing on the top spots. Andrej Vistica and Harry Wiltshire improved their totals, but at least Harry is likely to drop beyond #40 after next weekend’s races. Rom Guillaume was also looking for a good result, but after his DNF he needs to re-asses his Kona plans.

Female Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time	Diff to expected	Prize Money
1	Lucy Gossage	GBR	00:56:13	05:15:04	03:08:20	09:26:05	-05:33	US$ 10000
2	Tine Deckers	BEL	00:55:19	05:20:00	03:22:28	09:45:21	02:22	US$ 5000
3	Katja Konschak	GER	00:54:02	05:53:44	03:14:44	10:13:18	04:20	US$ 3250
4	Alyssa Godesky	USA	00:58:45	05:57:12	03:18:44	10:23:42	-07:25	US$ 2500
5	Vicky Gill	GBR	01:07:21	06:04:39	04:55:14	12:16:25	1:45:26	US$ 1750
	Kristin Moeller	GER	01:01:24			DNF

Winner Lucy Gossage was already safe for Kona before the UK race, and Tine Deckers scored well enough to move into “safe territory” for a July slot. Only two weeks after Frankfurt Katja Konschak raced another IM and is now 100% certain of a July slot.

Update July 20th: In the latest startlist a few names have been removed. I have crossed them out in the predictions table below.

Previous Winners

Year	Male Winner	Time	Female Winner	Time
2013	Trevor Wurtele (CAN)	08:39:33	Uli Bromme (USA)	09:28:13
2014	Marino Vanhoenacker (BEL)	08:16:10	Bree Wee (USA)	09:46:58
2015	Viktor Zyemtsev (USA)	08:49:46	Danielle Mack (USA)	09:46:19

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Viktor Zyemtsev	USA	00:53:03	04:58:32	02:54:28	08:49:46
2	Kyle Buckingham	ZAF	00:48:40	04:56:18	03:01:24	08:50:30
3	Justin Daerr	USA	00:53:02	04:58:35	02:59:13	08:54:45

Female Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Danielle Mack	USA	01:01:49	05:23:53	03:16:09	09:46:19
2	Melanie McQuaid	CAN	00:57:47	05:22:43	03:23:44	09:48:23
3	Jen Annett	CAN	01:02:01	05:32:14	03:16:03	09:55:06

Course Records

Leg	Gender	Record	Athlete	Date
Total	overall	08:16:10	Marino Vanhoenacker	2014-07-27
Swim	overall	00:48:22	Barrett Brandon	2015-07-26
Bike	overall	04:31:34	Marino Vanhoenacker	2014-07-27
Run	overall	02:40:34	Jeff Symonds	2014-07-27
Total	female	09:28:13	Uli Bromme	2013-08-25
Swim	female	00:53:09	Anna Cleaver	2014-07-27
Bike	female	05:13:51	Uli Bromme	2013-08-25
Run	female	03:06:53	Uli Bromme	2013-08-25

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Canada is – 03:36.

Race Adjustments for IM Canada

Year	Adjustment	Swim Adj.	Bike Adj.	Run Adj.	# of Finishers	Rating	Swim Rating	Bike Rating	Run Rating
2013	01:25	00:02	-00:39	02:59	24	01:25	00:02	-00:39	02:59
2014	03:08	-00:04	-03:19	-00:21	15 of 17	02:17	-00:01	-01:59	01:19
2015	-15:22	-00:06	-14:14	-03:02	23 of 33	-03:36	-00:03	-06:04	-00:08

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Canada is a P-2000 race. It will be an MPRO-only race and has a total prize purse of 50.000 US$.

Male Race Participants

Rank	Bib	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Exp. Swim	Exp. Bike	Exp. Run	Consistency	Overall
1	3	Andy Potts	USA	08:25:41	08:22:46	00:46:43	04:42:27	02:51:31	100% +0% -0% (13)	8
2	9	Callum Millward	NZL	08:33:00	08:26:16	00:48:15	04:46:39	02:53:07	74% +0% -26% (4)	17
3	7	Michael Weiss	AUT	08:33:15	08:32:02	00:53:45	04:35:52	02:58:37	91% +9% -0% (14)	25
4	1	Viktor Zyemtsev	USA	08:35:14	08:33:02	00:50:44	04:49:21	02:50:08	80% +0% -20% (19)	29
5	6	Maik Twelsiek	GER	08:41:28	08:37:34	00:50:18	04:36:47	03:09:23	78% +8% -14% (29)	50
6	2	Trevor Wurtele	CAN	08:42:50	08:52:03	00:52:43	04:44:58	03:00:09	41% +36% -23% (17)	96
7	5	Paul Ambrose	AUS	08:43:16	09:00:17	00:49:47	04:44:44	03:03:46	41% +4% -56% (20)	127
8	4	Justin Daerr	USA	08:45:37	08:50:23	00:52:35	04:50:17	02:57:44	56% +13% -31% (28)	90
9	13	Pedro Gomes	POR	08:45:56	08:40:43	00:51:54	04:52:24	02:56:39	65% +5% -30% (22)	57
10	14	Mike Aigroz	SUI	08:49:43	08:50:54	00:48:23	04:51:44	03:04:36	51% +3% -46% (21)	93
11	28	Jonathan Shearon	USA	08:54:27	08:55:08	00:53:24	04:48:45	03:07:18	57% +12% -31% (13)	103
12	10	Ben Collins	USA	08:56:19	08:58:11	00:48:49	04:53:35	03:08:56	100% +0% -0% (2)	(118)
13	19	Derek Garcia	USA	08:58:26	09:04:39	00:53:09	04:50:54	03:09:23	81% +7% -12% (10)	151
14	11	Stephen Kilshaw	CAN	08:58:31	09:11:37	00:54:08	04:56:28	03:02:55	59% +40% -1% (8)	171
15	8	Swen Sundberg	GER	09:02:41	08:59:02	00:52:45	04:54:07	03:10:49	55% +1% -44% (17)	121
16	16	Simon Billeau	FRA	09:06:47	09:03:29	00:54:28	04:49:49	03:17:29	43% +0% -57% (17)	142
17	12	Elliot Holtham	CAN	09:07:02	09:13:36	00:53:10	05:00:01	03:08:50	22% +42% -37% (6)	181
18	29	Nathan Champness	CAN	09:21:08	09:24:56	00:56:58	04:55:39	03:23:32	100% +0% -0% (2)	(212)
19	27	Anthony Toth	CAN	09:28:35	09:29:45	00:57:39	05:08:38	03:17:18	20% +11% -69% (17)	226
20	26	Matthew Sheeks	USA	09:30:24	09:38:11	00:52:40	04:26:37	04:06:07	22% +4% -74% (9)	247
21	17	Scott Bradley	USA	09:30:47	09:34:57	01:02:02	05:01:11	03:22:34	100% +0% -0% (2)	(241)
22	20	Dylan Gleeson	CAN	09:31:06	09:36:24	00:54:45	05:05:58	03:25:23	47% +53% -0% (2)	(244)
23	24	Adam O’Meara	CAN	09:32:26	09:37:12	00:54:35	05:16:01	03:16:50	45% +26% -29% (14)	244
24	22	Andrew Langfield	USA	09:48:21	09:56:12	00:57:27	05:25:59	03:19:55	n/a (1 IM Pro race)	(275)
25	21	Elmar Heger	GER	09:51:49	10:03:02	00:56:25	05:09:20	03:41:04	44% +23% -33% (6)	284
26	25	Matt Shanks	USA	09:55:35	09:57:46	00:59:29	05:22:56	03:28:09	100% +0% -0% (2)	(279)
27	18	Andrew Fast	USA	10:28:50	10:38:34	00:58:13	05:22:42	04:02:55	19% +28% -52% (4)	(297)
	23	Jeff Manson	CAN	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (no IM Pro race)	(n/a)

Winning Odds

Andy Potts is the clear favorite, he has always been racing well in his summer Ironman races. Behind him it’s unclear who will race, some have already secured their Kona slots or are very close and may skip Whistler to prepare for Kona:

• Andy Potts: 52% (1-1)
• Viktor Zyemtsev: 22% (4-1)
• Michael Weiss: 9% (10-1)
• Callum Millward: 7% (14-1)
• Justin Daerr: 4% (26-1)

KPR Situation

Andy Potts still needs his validation race, while Michael Weiss (not shown) is already safe and unlikely to race.

Update July 20th: In the latest startlist a few names have been removed, I have crossed them out in the predictions table.

Previous Winners

Year	Male Winner	Time	Female Winner	Time
2005	(no MPROs)		Heather Fuhr (USA)	09:45:06
2006	Viktor Zyemtsev (USA)	08:38:18	(no WPROs)
2007	(no MPros)		Belinda Granger (AUS)	09:40:20
2008	Francisco Pontano (ARG)	08:43:32	Caitlin Snow (USA)	09:51:00
2009	Maik Twelsiek (GER)	08:36:37	Tereza Macel (CZE)	09:29:36
2010	Ben Hoffman (USA)	08:39:34	Amy Marsh (USA)	09:27:30
2011	TJ Tollakson (USA)	08:25:15	Heather Wurtele (CAN)	09:19:03
2012	Andy Potts (USA)	08:25:07	Jessie Donavan (USA)	09:47:39
2013	Andy Potts (USA)	08:43:29	Jennie Hansen (USA)	09:35:06
2014	Kyle Buckingham (ZAF)	08:38:43	Amber Ferreira (USA)	09:31:28

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Kyle Buckingham	ZAF	00:52:04	04:43:47	02:57:49	08:38:43
2	Balazs Csoke	HUN	00:48:28	04:50:33	03:07:08	08:51:26
3	Jonathan Shearon	USA	00:55:09	04:55:07	03:03:23	08:59:22

Female Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Amber Ferreira	USA	00:57:13	05:19:33	03:08:35	09:31:28
2	Kim Schwabenbauer	USA	01:03:46	05:18:31	03:10:04	09:38:14
3	Lisa Roberts	USA	01:07:26	05:19:18	03:07:31	09:40:04

Course Records

Leg	Gender	Record	Athlete	Date
Total	overall	08:25:07	Andy Potts	2012-07-22
Swim	overall	00:45:01	Andy Potts	2012-07-22
Bike	overall	04:33:33	TJ Tollakson	2011-07-24
Run	overall	02:48:20	Viktor Zyemtsev	2006-07-23
Total	female	09:19:03	Heather Wurtele	2011-07-24
Swim	female	00:50:48	Tereza Macel	2009-07-26
Bike	female	05:07:44	Amy Marsh	2010-07-25
Run	female	02:57:05	Caitlin Snow	2009-07-26

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Lake Placid is – 03:31.

Race Adjustments for IM Lake Placid

Year	Adjustment	Swim Adj.	Bike Adj.	Run Adj.	# of Finishers	Rating	Swim Rating	Bike Rating	Run Rating
2005	-01:26	02:29	-08:54	03:46	21	-01:26	02:29	-08:54	03:46
2006	-17:02	00:31	-13:50	-06:43	29	-09:14	01:30	-11:22	-01:29
2007	-06:56	01:00	-11:44	-01:47	18	-08:28	01:20	-11:29	-01:35
2008	-00:13	00:25	-04:39	00:48	38	-06:24	01:06	-09:47	-00:59
2009	-02:22	00:01	-07:53	-00:56	39	-05:36	00:53	-09:24	-00:58
2010	02:59	-03:02	-03:17	01:43	44	-04:10	00:14	-08:23	-00:31
2011	00:33	-02:54	-03:46	03:02	24	-03:30	-00:13	-07:43	-00:01
2012	-03:45	00:40	-06:21	01:36	16	-03:31	-00:06	-07:33	00:11
2013	-02:42	00:12	-04:38	02:09	32	-03:26	-00:04	-07:14	00:24
2014	-04:18	-02:03	-03:57	03:35	24 of 29	-03:31	-00:16	-06:54	00:43

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Lake Placid is a P-2000 race. It will be a WPRO race only and has a total prize purse of 50.000 US$.

Female Race Participants

Rank	Bib	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Exp. Swim	Exp. Bike	Exp. Run	Consistency	Overall
1	1	Heather Jackson	USA	09:26:29	09:24:12	00:58:49	05:13:30	03:09:10	19% +56% -25% (4)	20
2	2	Kelly Williamson	USA	09:35:09	09:30:50	00:53:19	05:36:38	03:00:12	77% +12% -11% (12)	29
3	4	Amber Ferreira	USA	09:44:01	09:49:32	00:55:57	05:22:14	03:20:50	51% +25% -24% (14)	64
4	17	Annah Watkinson	ZAF	09:58:47	10:06:52	01:00:01	05:34:27	03:19:20	n/a (1 IM Pro race)	(102)
5	15	Beth Shutt	USA	10:02:20	09:57:28	01:00:39	05:31:52	03:24:50	68% +32% -0% (8)	86
6	5	Kaitlin Anelauskas	USA	10:15:39	10:41:13	00:55:03	05:55:42	03:19:54	25% +0% -75% (3)	(167)
7	14	Molly Roohi	USA	10:19:41	10:17:30	01:04:50	05:39:23	03:30:28	100% +0% -0% (4)	(123)
8	12	Caroline Martineau	CAN	10:20:46	10:46:59	01:03:03	05:39:42	03:33:01	20% +49% -31% (4)	168
9	8	Kate Bruck	USA	10:24:28	10:23:40	01:03:49	05:49:26	03:26:12	100% +0% -0% (3)	141
10	7	Neilia Bliss	USA	10:25:33	10:29:09	01:01:59	05:43:38	03:34:56	100% +0% -0% (2)	(154)
11	11	Rachel Jastrebsky	USA	10:30:58	10:29:01	01:02:03	05:43:03	03:40:52	100% +0% -0% (5)	(154)
12	6	Christine Avelar	USA	10:48:55	10:51:12	00:55:51	05:45:15	04:02:49	100% +0% -0% (2)	(169)
13	9	Florence Chretien	USA	11:35:20	11:46:06	00:58:54	06:04:29	04:26:56	65% +25% -10% (6)	(173)
	3	Alicia Kaye	USA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (no IM Pro race)	(n/a)
	10	Erin Green	USA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (no IM Pro race)	(n/a)
	13	Jodie Robertson	USA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (no IM Pro race)	(n/a)
	16	Nicole Valentine	USA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (no IM Pro race)	(n/a)

Winning Odds

Heather Jackson is the favorite – she’s following a similar race plan to last year when she qualified by winning IM Coeur d’Alene. All she needs this year is to finish. Kelly Williamson is unlikely to race, she has been tending an issue that prevented her from racing well since IM Texas.

• Heather Jackson: 38% (2-1)
• Kelly Williamson: 36% (2-1)
• Amber Ferreira: 18% (4-1)
• Beth Shutt: 5% (19-1)

KPR Situation

In addition to Heather, there are only two other athletes who are looking for a Kona slot: Alicia Kaye who is practically safe but wants to gain some more IM experience and Jodie Robertson who wants to show that her second place at IM Texas wasn’t a fluke.

Update July 13th: Matt Trautmann tweeted that he is injured and won’t be able to race in Zürich.

Update July 20th: In the latest startlist a few names have been removed, they are crossed out in the predictions table.

Previous Winners

Year	Male Winner	Time	Female Winner	Time
2005	Christoph Mauch (SUI)	08:21:48	Karin Thuerig (SUI)	09:10:51
2006	Mathias Hecht (SUI) Stefan Riesen (SUI)	08:26:01 08:16:50	Rebecca Preston (AUS)	09:24:18
2007	Ronnie Schildknecht (SUI)	08:24:58	Rebecca Preston (AUS)	09:20:40
2008	Ronnie Schildknecht (SUI)	08:16:05	Sibylle Matter (SUI)	09:30:12
2009	Ronnie Schildknecht (SUI)	08:20:00	Sibylle Matter (SUI)	09:14:35
2010	Ronnie Schildknecht (SUI)	08:12:40	Karin Thuerig (SUI)	09:00:04
2011	Ronnie Schildknecht (SUI)	08:19:51	Karin Thuerig (SUI)	09:03:26
2012	Ronnie Schildknecht (SUI)	08:17:13	Erika Csomor (HUN)	09:20:16
2013	Ronnie Schildknecht (SUI)	08:33:39	Anja Beranek (GER)	09:21:31
2014	Boris Stein (GER)	08:33:02	Daniela Ryf (SUI)	09:13:30
2015	Ronnie Schildknecht (SUI)	08:21:19	Beth Gerdes (USA)	09:21:05

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Ronnie Schildknecht	SUI	00:55:14	04:32:11	02:50:02	08:21:19
2	Jan Van Berkel	SUI	00:50:47	04:33:04	03:00:53	08:28:57
3	Alessandro Degasperi	ITA	00:55:16	04:44:47	02:47:07	08:31:36

Female Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Beth Gerdes	USA	01:00:53	05:13:40	03:01:24	09:21:05
2	Mary Beth Ellis	USA	00:55:12	05:02:07	03:24:13	09:26:37
3	Mareen Hufe	GER	01:01:42	05:10:33	03:18:06	09:35:26

Course Records

Leg	Gender	Record	Athlete	Date
Total	overall	08:12:40	Ronnie Schildknecht	2010-07-25
Swim	overall	00:45:29	Benjamin Sanson	2005-07-15
Bike	overall	04:27:42	Ronnie Schildknecht	2012-07-15
Run	overall	02:41:58	Clemente Alonso McKernan	2011-07-10
Total	female	09:00:04	Karin Thuerig	2010-07-25
Swim	female	00:51:23	Celine Schaerer	2014-07-27
Bike	female	04:43:53	Karin Thuerig	2010-07-25
Run	female	03:00:27	Kristin Moeller	2014-07-27

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Switzerland is 05:14.

Race Adjustments for IM Switzerland

Year	Adjustment	Swim Adj.	Bike Adj.	Run Adj.	# of Finishers	Rating	Swim Rating	Bike Rating	Run Rating
2005	-03:50	00:25	02:46	-07:19	42	-03:50	00:25	02:46	-07:19
2006	15:11	01:11	04:45	-00:04	33	05:40	00:48	03:46	-03:41
2007	17:55	-01:00	10:22	01:14	35	09:45	00:12	05:58	-02:03
2008	09:14	-00:09	01:56	02:04	30 of 40	09:37	00:07	04:57	-01:01
2009	12:38	-00:46	07:20	05:08	37	10:14	-00:04	05:26	00:13
2010	07:40	-01:22	06:05	01:48	30 of 38	09:48	-00:17	05:32	00:29
2011	09:22	-02:29	01:22	06:20	20	09:44	-00:36	04:57	01:19
2012	06:43	-03:08	04:25	02:10	31	09:22	-00:55	04:53	01:25
2013	-09:48	-05:12	02:57	-05:29	38	07:14	-01:24	04:40	00:39
2014	00:04	-03:45	05:20	-00:22	28 of 36	06:31	-01:38	04:44	00:33
2015	-07:37	-02:51	00:59	-02:22	24 of 38	05:14	-01:44	04:23	00:17

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Switzerland is a P-2000 race. It has a total prize purse of 50.000 US$.

Male Race Participants

Rank	Bib	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Exp. Swim	Exp. Bike	Exp. Run	Consistency	Overall
1	1	Ronnie Schildknecht	SUI	08:18:44	08:28:31	00:53:18	04:29:48	02:50:38	75% +1% -25% (27)	19
2	79	Clemente Alonso McKernan	ESP	08:19:15	08:36:03	00:48:36	04:34:39	02:50:59	43% +11% -46% (14)	(42)
3	73	Timo Bracht	GER	08:21:27	08:23:48	00:50:57	04:32:41	02:52:48	83% +8% -8% (26)	10
4	70	Matt Trautman	ZAF	08:24:43	08:25:19	00:52:14	04:34:33	02:52:55	80% +0% -20% (6)	11
5	2	Jan Van Berkel	SUI	08:29:06	08:48:01	00:49:29	04:32:06	03:02:31	49% +24% -27% (11)	80
6	8	Markus Fachbach	GER	08:32:26	08:37:06	00:50:59	04:35:16	03:01:12	83% +0% -17% (17)	47
7	74	David Plese	SLO	08:34:46	08:41:23	00:53:47	04:38:13	02:57:46	73% +5% -22% (16)	59
8	37	Andrej Vistica	CRO	08:37:36	08:44:28	00:55:03	04:38:53	02:58:41	75% +0% -25% (10)	68
9	15	Fabio Carvalho	BRA	08:38:19	09:16:16	00:49:02	04:47:47	02:56:29	2% +39% -59% (9)	193
10	78	Igor Amorelli	BRA	08:38:34	08:47:41	00:48:55	04:36:38	03:08:01	32% +12% -55% (10)	78
11	11	Fraser Cartmell	GBR	08:39:56	08:48:19	00:49:56	04:37:27	03:07:33	57% +14% -28% (9)	81
12	10	Bertrand Billard	FRA	08:41:46	08:57:11	00:51:08	04:38:57	03:06:41	7% +35% -58% (8)	113
13	71	Ritchie Nicholls	GBR	08:41:57	08:58:34	00:51:52	04:53:02	02:52:03	47% +0% -53% (4)	(118)
14	32	Darby Thomas	FIN	08:42:47	08:56:49	00:59:45	04:41:36	02:56:27	63% +10% -27% (7)	110
15	5	Mauro Baertsch	SUI	08:43:09	08:58:46	00:54:28	04:44:36	02:59:04	45% +32% -23% (9)	119
16	31	Pascal Ramali	GER	08:46:28	09:13:59	01:00:17	04:34:43	03:06:28	27% +0% -73% (3)	(184)
17	34	Harry Wiltshire	GBR	08:47:41	08:53:05	00:49:14	04:45:53	03:07:33	26% +32% -42% (14)	98
18	9	Christian Brader	GER	08:48:30	08:59:28	00:57:46	04:47:06	02:58:38	74% +5% -21% (33)	124
19	40	Manuel Kueng	SUI	08:49:03	09:06:54	00:47:23	04:30:11	03:26:29	11% +89% -0% (3)	(158)
20	18	Roman Deisenhofer	GER	08:49:48	09:05:52	00:54:33	04:40:02	03:10:13	38% +62% -0% (4)	156
21	6	Mike Schifferle	SUI	08:50:14	09:02:37	01:01:30	04:42:04	03:01:41	85% +11% -4% (55)	137
22	39	Balazs Csoke	HUN	08:52:18	09:01:13	00:48:49	04:45:10	03:13:19	63% +8% -29% (23)	130
23	35	Patrick Jaberg	SUI	08:53:30	09:04:38	00:54:52	04:45:22	03:08:16	96% +0% -4% (16)	150
24	36	David Naesvik	SWE	08:54:07	09:02:15	00:56:42	04:41:21	03:11:04	77% +0% -23% (13)	135
25	14	Simon Billeau	FRA	08:57:53	09:03:29	00:56:08	04:39:44	03:17:01	43% +0% -57% (17)	142
26	25	Tomas Mika	CZE	08:59:05	09:08:17	00:56:36	04:56:24	03:01:06	84% +16% -0% (5)	161
27	28	Sebastian Pedraza	ITA	09:01:55	09:11:35	00:54:49	04:44:15	03:17:51	56% +16% -28% (13)	(171)
28	77	Marcel Bischof	GER	09:02:00	09:15:43	00:58:14	04:50:07	03:08:40	83% +17% -0% (13)	190
29	76	Gergö Molnar	HUN	09:07:31	09:18:13	00:51:24	04:51:13	03:19:54	42% +0% -58% (7)	197
30	22	Johan Kaerner	SWE	09:11:02	09:27:37	01:00:48	04:49:37	03:15:38	n/a (1 IM Pro race)	(221)
31	16	Nicholas Chase	USA	09:25:31	09:42:32	00:53:46	04:57:40	03:29:05	n/a (1 IM Pro race)	(257)
32	80	Ivan Jezko	SVK	09:27:29	09:42:32	01:02:08	05:00:31	03:19:50	42% +23% -34% (11)	257
33	21	David Jilek	CZE	09:27:51	09:39:13	00:59:45	04:57:49	03:25:17	64% +21% -15% (7)	252
34	17	Emanuele Ciotti	ITA	09:28:47	09:43:21	00:53:44	05:03:14	03:26:48	33% +36% -31% (3)	(260)
35	30	Lukas Polan	CZE	09:40:58	09:56:55	01:04:19	05:05:31	03:26:08	30% +15% -55% (9)	277
36	72	Peter Kotland	CZE	09:43:57	09:55:55	01:01:01	05:04:12	03:33:44	54% +26% -21% (21)	274
37	27	Gilian Oriet	SUI	09:45:10	10:00:50	00:59:13	05:04:23	03:36:34	22% +10% -68% (10)	283
38	24	Martin Charles	FRA	10:05:44	10:23:57	00:54:50	05:14:46	03:51:08	n/a (1 IM Pro race)	(295)
39	38	Remmert Wielinga	NED	10:07:37	10:52:28	01:14:31	05:00:25	03:47:41	7% +11% -82% (6)	(303)
40	13	Santiago Abad de Agueda	ESP	10:31:11	10:56:40	01:05:13	05:21:19	03:59:39	49% +0% -51% (2)	(304)
41	23	David Krupicka	CZE	10:46:09	10:59:26	01:06:33	05:20:26	04:14:10	100% +0% -0% (2)	(304)
42	26	Marek Nemcik	SVK	11:28:43	12:09:19	01:13:23	05:44:54	04:25:26	32% +25% -43% (35)	308
	12	Philipp Koutny	SUI	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (no IM Pro race)	(n/a)
	19	Matthias Epping		n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (no IM Pro race)	(n/a)
	20	Jan Hron		n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (no IM Pro race)	(n/a)
	29	Cyril Pochon	FRA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (no IM Pro race)	(n/a)
	33	Richard Westover	GBR	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (no IM Pro race)	(n/a)
	55	Lauren Capone	USA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (no IM Pro race)	(n/a)
	75	Petr Bednar	CZE	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (1 IM Pro race)	(n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank	Bib	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Exp. Swim	Exp. Bike	Exp. Run	Consistency	Overall
1	50	Daniela Ryf	SUI	08:55:51	09:05:05	00:53:24	04:51:50	03:05:37	71% +0% -29% (6)	2
2	54	Michaela Herlbauer	AUT	09:19:04	09:32:15	00:56:58	05:07:38	03:09:28	33% +31% -36% (5)	35
3	42	Celine Schaerer	SUI	09:22:59	09:42:25	00:49:10	05:09:18	03:19:31	58% +0% -42% (4)	(53)
4	49	Natascha Badmann	SUI	09:28:44	09:39:17	01:03:04	04:59:57	03:20:42	42% +0% -58% (17)	48
5	62	Kristin Moeller	GER	09:29:29	09:35:55	01:04:37	05:17:06	03:02:46	83% +15% -2% (17)	41
6	41	Emma Bilham	SUI	09:31:01	09:48:12	00:56:03	05:12:25	03:17:33	n/a (1 IM Pro race)	(64)
7	53	Ariane Monticeli	BRA	09:33:38	09:44:05	01:03:20	05:17:43	03:07:34	55% +27% -18% (14)	59
8	59	Regula Rohrbach	SUI	09:39:21	09:52:31	00:58:29	05:01:55	03:33:58	59% +13% -29% (11)	74
9	43	Carolin Lehrieder	GER	09:41:12	09:57:37	00:56:42	05:19:43	03:19:47	30% +23% -46% (6)	87
10	56	Karen Thibodeau	CAN	09:52:00	09:59:37	00:55:32	05:25:09	03:26:19	65% +0% -35% (11)	91
11	52	Katharina Grohmann	GER	09:53:54	10:03:46	01:13:12	05:17:23	03:18:19	100% +0% -0% (12)	97
12	51	Corina Hengartner	SUI	09:59:04	10:12:55	01:04:17	05:16:07	03:33:40	56% +25% -19% (4)	116
13	60	Caroline Livesey	GBR	09:59:37	10:07:05	01:03:06	05:19:24	03:32:07	68% +0% -32% (7)	102
14	44	Lina-Kristin Schink	GER	10:00:41	10:19:21	01:12:19	05:20:07	03:23:16	70% +0% -30% (5)	129
15	46	Petra Krejcova	CZE	10:02:28	10:14:57	01:04:03	05:33:01	03:20:23	100% +0% -0% (2)	(118)
16	48	Mariana Andrade	BRA	10:03:12	10:25:39	01:01:26	05:18:33	03:38:14	11% +38% -51% (12)	149
17	47	Alyssa Godesky	USA	10:10:42	10:21:50	01:03:21	05:31:15	03:31:06	61% +20% -19% (11)	134
18	58	Nicole Woysch	GER	10:18:15	10:54:33	01:00:29	05:24:54	03:47:53	22% +3% -75% (21)	(169)
19	61	Jana Candrova	CZE	10:18:51	10:36:13	01:07:49	05:26:20	03:39:41	68% +2% -30% (14)	163
	45	Lauren Parker	AUS	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (no IM Pro race)	(n/a)
	57	Diane Luethi	SUI	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (no IM Pro race)	(n/a)

KPR Situation

The following graphs show who is in a position to improve their KPR score to move beyond “the bubble” where qualifying comes down to everybody’s results on the last day of racing.

Male Participants

Female Participants

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

Based on his good results at the end of 2014, Clemente is the slight statistical favorite, but he’s been struggling lately (including a DNF in Frankfurt). Ronnie Schildknecht has won this race eight times before but he faces strong competition by Timo, Jan and Matt, most of whom still need the Kona points that come with a good finish.

• Clemente Alonso McKernan: 26% (3-1)
• Timo Bracht: 18% (5-1)
• Ronnie Schildknecht: 18% (5-1)
• Jan Van Berkel: 8% (11-1)
• Matt Trautman: 6% (15-1)

Female Race Participants

If Daniela decides to race (she’s scheduled to race Roth just a week before), she’ll be the clear favorite. If she’s not racing, the top spot will be wide open.

• Daniela Ryf: 69% (1-1)
• Michaela Herlbauer: 10% (9-1)
• Natascha Badmann: 7% (14-1)
• Kristin Moeller: 4% (23-1)
• Celine Schaerer: 4% (26-1)
• Ariane Monticeli: 4% (27-1)