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2016

Ironman Lake Placid 2016 – Analyzing Results

Race Conditions

With only a few previously rated finishers, the data is not very conclusive but quite in line with the previous Pro races there have been in Lake Placid: a course rating of -3:34 and slow across all three legs.

Heather Jackson had a great day, smashing both the bike course record  (previously held by Amy Marsh from 2010) and the overall course record (previously held by Heather Wurtele from 2011) by ten minutes.

Kona Qualifying Implications

Heather Jackson validated her Kona slot by winning the race, and Alicia Kaye who was in all likelihood safe before the race finished third, gaining some more IM racing experience. For the full rankings at the end of July, check out my post on the July cutoff.

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected Prize Money
1 Heather Jackson USA 01:00:22 04:57:36 03:07:00 09:09:42 -18:35 US$ 20000
2 Annah Watkinson ZAF 00:59:41 05:21:17 03:18:45 09:45:00 -08:22 US$ 10000
3 Alicia Kaye USA 00:54:25 05:24:38 03:28:39 09:53:31 n/a US$ 6500
4 Beth Shutt USA 01:01:28 05:29:34 03:40:05 10:17:00 14:57 US$ 4000
5 Nicole Valentine USA 01:05:14 05:56:29 03:23:59 10:33:44 n/a US$ 3000
6 Caroline Martineau CAN 01:05:06 05:41:00 03:42:35 10:34:49 -04:46 US$ 2000
7 Erin Green USA 01:04:43 05:46:04 03:39:40 10:36:54 n/a US$ 1500
8 Neilia Bliss USA 01:07:09 05:45:43 03:42:11 10:41:42 20:10 US$ 1250
9 Kate Bruck USA 01:04:10 05:50:39 03:52:58 10:54:08 31:46 US$ 1000
10 Christine Avelar USA 01:01:03 05:58:47 04:15:27 11:23:54 40:26 US$ 750
Rachel Jastrebsky USA 01:01:45 05:27:28 DNF
Amber Ferreira USA 01:00:21 DNF

Ironman Switzerland 2016 – Analyzing Results

Race Conditions

This year’s course in Zürich had a new run course, but the impact on the course rating has been minimal (run adjustment of -0:15, new run course rating of 0:14). Overall conditions have been typical as well, if anything the non-wetsuit swim for the Pros was a bit slower and the bike was a bit faster than in previous years.

Even without being aided by fast conditions, there were a few course records. Just one week after winning Challenge Roth with a fantastic 8:22, Daniela Ryf also won IM Switzerland (posting a new record for the shortest time between long-distance triathlon wins) in sub-9, beating the old course record by Karin Thürig from 2010 by almost ten minutes. (Karin’s bike course record still stands.) In addition Roman Deisenhofer set a new male bike course record of 4:26:15, improving the old time of 4:27:42 by Ronnie Schildknecht from 2012.

Kona Qualifying Implications

A lot of athletes were looking for a final push in their KPR total. Ronnie Schildknecht, Timo Bracht, Jan Van Berkel and David Plese secured a July slot, on the women’s side Emma Bilham and Ariane Monticelli are also safe. Daniela validated her Automatic Qualifier spot with the IM Switzerland win.

For the full rankings at the end of July, check out my post on the first July cutoff.

Male Race Results

Ronnie Schildknecht had a strong bike ride and an even better run to win his 9th IM Switzerland. Timo Bracht had a solid race including a strong run to finish second. Jan Van Berkel tried his best to go with Ronnie Schildknecht on the run, almost ran himself into the ground but still finished with a sub-3 run in third place.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected Prize Money
1 Ronnie Schildknecht SUI 00:55:39 04:31:01 02:47:07 08:17:04 -09:10 US$ 10000
2 Timo Bracht GER 00:53:17 04:33:02 02:54:34 08:24:13 02:44 US$ 5000
3 Jan Van Berkel SUI 00:52:56 04:33:37 02:59:23 08:29:12 -16:28 US$ 3250
4 Roman Deisenhofer GER 00:55:41 04:26:15 03:07:08 08:32:58 -25:07 US$ 2500
5 David Plese SLO 00:55:53 04:44:12 02:52:46 08:36:50 -02:10 US$ 1750
6 Mauro Baertsch SUI 00:57:48 04:43:30 02:51:20 08:36:55 -14:08 US$ 1250
7 Christian Brader GER 00:59:10 04:46:56 02:58:54 08:49:07 -02:35 US$ 750
8 Patrick Jaberg SUI 00:57:50 04:42:01 03:05:16 08:49:39 -07:09 US$ 500
9 Mike Schifferle SUI 01:01:43 04:41:53 03:00:21 08:50:28 -09:42
10 Darby Thomas FIN 01:03:47 04:45:24 03:12:40 09:06:08 22:25
11 Nicholas Chase USA 00:55:44 04:43:49 03:36:53 09:21:06 -01:43
12 Ivan Jezko SVK 01:03:57 04:57:30 03:37:55 09:44:54 14:01
13 Jan Hron CZE 01:07:59 05:18:21 03:16:57 09:48:23 n/a
14 Sebastian Pedraza ITA 01:01:51 05:06:07 03:46:27 09:58:35 49:45
15 Lukas Polan CZE 01:12:05 05:28:14 03:41:53 10:27:15 39:08
16 Gilian Oriet SUI 01:01:55 05:03:19 04:33:12 10:43:05 57:03
Philipp Koutny SUI 00:55:37 04:31:04 DNF
Markus Fachbach GER 00:55:02 04:33:26 DNF
Manuel Kueng SUI 00:50:41 04:44:21 DNF
Fabio Carvalho BRA 00:53:05 04:44:45 DNF
David Naesvik SWE 00:57:59 04:46:26 DNF
Matthias Epping GER 00:55:48 04:48:45 DNF
Emanuele Ciotti ITA 00:55:55 04:55:14 DNF
Johan Kaerner SWE 01:01:48 04:55:40 DNF
Cyril Pochon FRA 00:55:18 05:10:48 DNF
Martin Charles FRA 00:55:47 05:12:06 DNF
Marek Nemcik SVK 01:15:51 06:15:30 DNF
Balazs Csoke HUN 00:49:53 DNF
Gergö Molnar HUN 00:53:02 DNF
Fraser Cartmell GBR 00:53:12 DNF

Female Race Results

Daniela Ryf swam with Celine Schärer, one of the fastest Ironman swimmers, then rode away on the bike and controlled her effort on the run. Second place went to Emma Balham with a strong bike and solid run – her second second place in her second Ironman. Michi Herlbauer was working hard all day taking the last spot on the podium.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected Prize Money
1 Daniela Ryf SUI 00:53:16 04:46:30 03:07:31 08:51:50 -00:55 US$ 10000
2 Emma Bilham SUI 00:57:41 05:03:58 03:16:36 09:21:48 -06:31 US$ 5000
3 Michaela Herlbauer AUT 01:01:05 05:07:02 03:15:37 09:28:12 04:14 US$ 3250
4 Celine Schaerer SUI 00:53:14 05:13:07 03:24:57 09:35:26 07:08 US$ 2500
5 Ariane Monticeli BRA 01:03:58 05:11:16 03:20:05 09:40:07 -01:18 US$ 1750
6 Karen Thibodeau CAN 00:56:53 05:15:47 03:23:25 09:40:38 -10:23 US$ 1250
7 Corina Hengartner SUI 01:05:10 05:14:01 03:22:31 09:46:19 -17:50 US$ 750
8 Alyssa Godesky USA 01:03:20 05:16:53 03:22:15 09:47:20 -24:35 US$ 500
9 Natascha Badmann SUI 01:05:08 05:02:18 03:35:03 09:47:21 16:30
10 Kristin Moeller GER 01:12:24 05:24:31 03:09:51 09:52:16 19:05
11 Diane Luethi SUI 00:58:02 05:21:36 03:38:07 10:02:48 n/a
12 Petra Krejcova CZE 01:03:48 05:21:40 03:40:09 10:09:43 09:42
13 Regula Rohrbach SUI 01:01:36 05:03:04 04:02:25 10:12:53 29:03
14 Jana Candrova CZE 01:13:13 05:29:54 03:36:43 10:25:34 -01:28
Lauren Parker AUS 00:55:10 05:37:20 DNF
Lauren Capone USA 00:59:07 05:34:42 DNF

Unofficial KPR & 2016 Pro Kona Slot Allocation for July Cutoff

2016 Kona Rating Report Title Thumb

Here is my calculation of the KPR at the end of July, deciding 40 male and 28 female slots (in addition to the Automatic Qualifiers). My results are unofficial, the official results will be posted on the Ironman website at http://eu.ironman.com/triathlon/triathlon-rankings/points-system.aspx (but as far as I can tell shows the same data). I do not count AQs and athletes that haven’t validated my rankings, therefore it is a bit easier to determine the Top 40 male and Top 28 females. I will update this post with new information regarding declined slots and rolldown. For now, the athletes with a rank in brackets (e.g. “(42)”) are outside of the July slots. I will update this post with information about slot declines and rolldowns.

There is another cutoff in August, adding another 10 male and 7 female slots. Once the field has been completed, I will work on this year’s version of the Kona Rating Report, looking at the field and each athlete’s chances for a good result. The free report will be released in time before the Kona race, you can already pre-order your copy.

Update July 28th: The first rolldown has happened: Carrie Lester is now marked as a qualifier as well. It’s unclear who has declined her slot, I have marked the female qualifiers without a “Q” on the Ironman site with a question mark. (So even though Carrie is still ranked 29th in my table, she did get a slot.)   So far there is no indication for a rolldown on the men’s side.

Update July 29th: It is now clear that the slot that rolled down to Carrie was declined by Michelle Bremer. I’ve added a “D” to her name and adjusted the other ranks accordingly.

Update August 2nd: All male slots have been sorted. One slot rolled down to Jens Petersen-Bach, as far as I can tell Matt  Trautmann had to decline his slot. All other slots have been accepted.

Update August 3rd: One more slot rolled on the female side, Emma Balham declined and Jodie Robertson accepted the roll-down slot. All July slots on the female side are finalized as well.

Update August 3rd: Just when everything seemed clear, Beth Gerdes declined her slot (details on her blog), and another slot rolled down to Dimity-Lee Duke.

Male KPR Rankings

 

Rank Name Points Races
AQ Frodeno, Jan 13350 2+2
AQ Kienle, Sebastian 12440 2+3 (3825/640)
AQ McMahon, Brent 10615 3+2 (1600/785)
1 Potts, Andy 9520 2+3 (2000/435)
AQ Van Berkel, Tim 8985 2+3 (3400/400)
2 Llanos, Eneko 8525 3+2 (290/345)
3 Sanders, Lionel 7370 2+3 (1620/750)
4 O’Donnell, Timothy 7325 2+2
5 Don, Tim 7025 2+2
6 Boecherer, Andi 6870 2+3 (450/500)
7 Butterfield, Tyler 6855 2+1
8 Russell, Matthew 6650 3+2 (720/180)
9 Stein, Boris 6440 2+2
10 Viennot, Cyril 6170 2+2
11 Dellow, David 5975 3+1 (960/0)
AQ Hoffman, Ben 5605 2+3 (340/280)
12 Albert, Marko 5550 3+1 (120/0)
13 Cunnama, James 5225 2+3 (1600/400)
14 Aernouts, Bart 5045 1+3 (720/640)
15 Collington, Kevin 5035 2+3 (405/320)
16 Bozzone, Terenzo 4945 2+3 (540/435)
AQ Lange, Patrick 4845 1+3 (4000/125)
17 McKenzie, Luke 4675 2+3 (1670/45)
18 Thomschke, Markus 4605 2+3 (1280/345)
19 Bracht, Timo 4595 3+2 (540/135)
20 McNamee, David 4590 2+2
21 Schmid, Stefan 4560 3+0 (1280/0)
22 Thomas, Jesse 4545 2+2
23 Reed, Tim 4475 1+3 (2000/640)
D Trautman, Matt 4470 1+3 (2455/515)
24 Degasperi, Alessandro 4460 3+2 (1280/220)
25 Wild, Ruedi 4435 1+3 (1670/500)
26 Gomes, Pedro 4397 3+1 (705/0)
27 Schildknecht, Ronnie 4190 3+0 (855/0)
28 Weiss, Michael 4095 3+2 (960/320)
29 Kotshegarov, Kirill 4068 3+1 (60/0)
30 Plese, David 4045 3+2 (305/100)
31 Baertsch, Mauro 4025 3+2 (540/180)
32 Skipper, Joe 3935 2+1
33 Kramer, Christian 3780 3+2 (540/100)
34 Vistica, Andrej 3770 3+2 (720/30)
35 Rana, Ivan 3745 2+1
36 Van Berkel, Jan 3735 3+2 (235/240)
37 Chevrot, Denis 3735 2+2
38 Wurtele, Trevor 3725 2+3 (540/625)
39 Bittner, Per 3620 2+3 (1280/75)
40 Petersen-Bach, Jens 3610 3+1 (685/0)
(41) Millward, Callum 3580 2+3 (685/435)
(42) Wiltshire, Harry 3495 3+2 (720/135)
(43) Billard, Bertrand 3490 2+2
AQ Jacobs, Pete 3055 1+2
AQ Van Lierde, Frederik 2335 2+3 (340/135)

Female KPR Rankings

Rank Name Points Races
AQ Ryf, Daniela 15250 2+3 (2000/750)
1 Cheetham, Susie 10140 2+3 (3400/180)
2 Jackson, Heather 8790 1+3 (2000/500)
3 Gossage, Lucy 8740 3+1 (2000/0)
4 Piampiano, Sarah 7825 2+3 (2000/435)
AQ Gajer, Julia 7450 2+2
5 Frades Larralde, Gurutze 7070 3+2 (1600/180)
6 Pedersen, Camilla 6730 2+3 (1280/345)
7 Roberts, Lisa 6715 2+3 (1600/30)
8 Vesterby, Michelle 6605 2+1
9? Luxford, Annabel 6580 2+3 (2090/750)
10 Lundstroem, Asa 6575 2+2
11 Kessler, Meredith 6475 2+3 (2000/640)
AQ Lyles, Elizabeth 6465 2+3 (1620/180)
12 Beranek, Anja 6455 1+3 (2000/750)
AQ Swallow, Jodie 6420 1+3 (4000/750)
13 Konschak, Katja 6140 3+1 (1280/0)
AQ Lehtonen, Kaisa 6140 2+1
14 Kaye, Alicia 6055 2+3 (1280/280)
15 Wurtele, Heather 5910 1+3 (960/750)
16 Hufe, Mareen 5750 3+2 (405/125)
17 Corbin, Linsey 5590 1+3 (3400/320)
18 Crowley, Sarah 5535 2+3 (960/435)
19 Deckers, Tine 5440 2+3 (1600/500)
D Bilham, Emma 5355 2+3 (1600/240)
20 Saemmler, Daniela 5290 2+1
D Bremer, Michelle 5285 3+2 (540/345)
21 Van Vlerken, Yvonne 5200 2+3 (1280/640)
22 Holst, Tine 5185 3+1 (960/0)
AQ Hauschildt, Melissa 4750 1+1
23 Monticeli, Ariane 4715 2+3 (720/500)
24 Walter, Verena 4600 3+1 (405/0)
25 Tondeur, Alexandra 4530 2+3 (1280/435)
D Gerdes, Beth 4490 2+3 (1375/280)
26 Lester, Carrie 4420 2+2
27 Robertson, Jodie 4305 1+3 (3400/240)
28 Duke, Dimity-Lee 4215 3+2 (960/320)
(29) Steurer, Bianca 4090 3+2 (855/400)
AQ Cave, Leanda 3520 2+1
AQ Carfrae, Mirinda 3260 1+3 (2000/320)

Ironman Vineman 2016 (July 31st) – Predictions

IMVineman

This is the first time this race is organized by the Ironman brand. There was a Pro category in prior years, but results are hard to find and I haven’t included them in my analysis. All time predictions are based on a “neutral” course.

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Vineman is a P-2000 race. It has a total prize purse of 50.000 US$.

Male Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Consistency Overall
1 3 Richie Cunningham AUS 08:35:04 08:47:12 00:49:19 04:38:40 03:02:05 50% +0% -50% (3) (78)
2 4 Kyle Buckingham ZAF 08:40:53 08:39:09 00:49:13 04:41:38 03:05:01 68% +0% -32% (9) 53
3 7 Pedro Gomes POR 08:42:27 08:40:43 00:52:07 04:47:56 02:57:24 65% +5% -30% (22) 57
4 5 Barrett Brandon USA 08:45:00 08:45:09 00:47:50 04:50:57 03:01:13 60% +0% -40% (5) 69
5 2 Chris McDonald AUS 08:49:54 08:46:30 00:53:33 04:46:41 03:04:40 62% +8% -30% (41) 76
6 17 Jonathan Shearon USA 08:50:54 08:55:08 00:53:37 04:44:15 03:08:02 57% +12% -31% (13) 102
7 6 Thomas Gerlach USA 08:53:14 09:01:16 00:54:07 04:44:00 03:10:06 39% +11% -51% (21) 131
8 8 Guy Crawford NZL 09:06:36 09:14:38 00:49:02 04:44:46 03:27:48 27% +37% -36% (12) 183
9 19 Jesse Vondracek USA 09:16:48 09:27:55 00:55:22 05:02:51 03:13:35 66% +24% -11% (16) 219
10 13 Colin Laughery USA 09:19:07 09:24:45 01:00:01 05:00:51 03:13:15 100% +0% -0% (2) (209)
11 14 James Lubinski USA 09:23:03 09:31:31 01:02:16 05:03:31 03:12:16 44% +25% -31% (16) 231
12 15 Douglas MacLean USA 09:23:20 09:25:51 00:58:04 05:08:26 03:11:50 83% +5% -12% (13) 210
13 12 Andrew Langfield USA 09:44:27 09:56:12 00:57:41 05:21:00 03:20:46 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (269)
14 18 Jorge Vazquez MEX 10:05:15 10:17:24 00:53:52 05:14:51 03:51:32 42% +0% -58% (3) (287)
15 16 Sergio Quezada MEX 10:07:42 10:11:28 00:52:36 05:16:40 03:53:26 69% +10% -22% (12) 283
1 Max Biessmann USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
9 Ivan Dominguez USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
10 Rafael Goncalves BRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
11 Nicholas Granet FRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Consistency Overall
1 27 Heather Jackson USA 09:22:49 09:24:12 00:58:52 05:08:02 03:10:56 19% +56% -25% (4) 20
2 26 Mary Beth Ellis USA 09:23:06 09:17:57 00:51:16 05:05:52 03:20:59 93% +0% -7% (17) 13
3 25 Sarah Piampiano USA 09:28:31 09:32:17 01:02:46 05:10:08 03:10:37 41% +47% -12% (14) 36
4 29 Amanda Stevens USA 09:30:01 09:30:05 00:51:32 05:15:40 03:17:50 60% +21% -19% (17) 28
5 30 Ariane Monticeli BRA 09:41:54 09:44:05 01:01:58 05:25:27 03:09:30 55% +27% -18% (14) 59
6 41 Darbi Roberts USA 09:44:37 09:58:31 00:52:49 05:21:32 03:25:15 37% +0% -63% (5) 89
7 37 Mackenzie Madison USA 09:46:40 09:49:32 00:58:36 05:20:08 03:22:56 69% +0% -31% (11) 64
8 28 Kate Bevilaqua AUS 09:57:22 10:05:04 00:55:58 05:24:55 03:31:30 26% +7% -67% (26) 99
9 39 Leslie DiMichele Miller USA 09:58:28 10:00:27 00:59:15 05:32:23 03:21:50 100% +0% -0% (3) 93
10 38 Jocelyn McCauley USA 10:04:46 10:23:05 00:59:27 05:30:31 03:29:49 41% +0% -59% (4) (137)
11 34 Caroline Gregory USA 10:13:13 10:25:09 00:56:01 05:42:40 03:29:32 48% +7% -45% (13) 148
12 42 Jessica Smith USA 10:16:09 10:25:18 00:55:38 05:31:06 03:44:25 38% +0% -62% (6) (149)
13 36 Cathleen Knutson USA 10:48:37 10:56:26 01:07:07 05:48:16 03:48:14 55% +0% -45% (3) (168)
14 32 Terry Casey USA 10:59:05 11:12:19 00:58:47 05:36:07 04:19:11 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (170)
15 31 Katy Cargiulo USA 11:01:40 11:08:17 01:01:34 06:10:47 03:44:19 100% +0% -0% (2) (170)
33 Kendra Goffredo USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
35 Monica Juhart AUS n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
40 Ashley Paulson USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
43 Kyra Wiens USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

  • Richie Cunningham: 49% (1-1)
  • Kyle Buckingham: 17% (5-1)
  • Pedro Gomes: 16% (5-1)
  • Chris McDonald: 7% (14-1)
  • Thomas Gerlach: 5% (21-1)
  • Jonathan Shearon: 4% (27-1)
  • Barrett Brandon: 3% (31-1)

Female Race Participants

There are a number of women on the start list that are unlikely to race. Heather Jackson is probably on the Vineman list as a back up in case her validation race in Lake Placid the week before had runs into problem (she won and has a July slot). In a similar vein Ariane Monticelli managed to get a slot at IM Zürich and I can’t see a compelling reason for her to race Vineman. Mary Beth Ellis is also registered for IM Maastricht on the same weekend and has indicated that she’ll race there. (Update: MBE is no longer on the start list.) Amanda Stevens has been injured and is unlikely to race. This would leave Sarah Piampiano as the clear favorite to win the race:

  • Mary Beth Ellis: 34% (2-1)
  • Heather Jackson: 31% (2-1)
  • Sarah Piampiano: 19% (4-1)
  • Amanda Stevens: 12% (7-1)
  • Ariane Monticeli: 3% (30-1)

Ironman Netherlands 2016 (July 31st) – Predictions

IMMaastricht

Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2015 Bas Diederen (NED) 08:27:18 Yvonne Van Vlerken (NED) 09:39:24

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Bas Diederen NED 00:46:22 04:43:33 02:51:59 08:27:18
2 Mark Oude Bennink NED 00:46:19 04:48:30 02:54:58 08:35:15
3 Alberto Casadei ITA 00:46:20 04:51:50 02:54:34 08:38:04

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Yvonne Van Vlerken NED 00:56:26 05:16:10 03:21:17 09:39:24
2 Sarissa De Vries NED 00:52:24 05:25:23 03:34:10 09:58:44
3 Carla Van Rooijen NED 01:09:18 05:32:16 03:16:20 10:04:38

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:27:18 Bas Diederen 2015-08-02
Swim overall 00:46:17 Martijn Dekker 2015-08-02
Bike overall 04:43:33 Bas Diederen 2015-08-02
Run overall 02:51:59 Bas Diederen 2015-08-02
Total female 09:39:24 Yvonne Van Vlerken 2015-08-02
Swim female 00:52:24 Sarissa De Vries 2015-08-02
Bike female 05:16:10 Yvonne Van Vlerken 2015-08-02
Run female 03:16:20 Carla Van Rooijen 2015-08-02

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Netherlands is – 05:33.

Race Adjustments for IM Netherlands

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Finishers Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2015 -05:33 00:41 -02:40 01:09 25 of 32 -05:33 00:41 -02:40 01:09

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Netherlands is a P-2000 race. It has a total prize purse of 25.000 US$.

Male Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Consistency Overall
1 1 Bas Diederen NED 08:30:29 08:35:15 00:47:12 04:42:05 02:56:12 36% +8% -55% (16) 39
2 28 Markus Fachbach GER 08:42:47 08:37:06 00:49:26 04:45:38 03:02:43 83% +0% -17% (17) 47
3 20 Mark Oude Bennink NED 08:46:34 09:01:31 00:47:19 04:53:15 03:01:00 22% +37% -41% (6) 132
4 30 Igor Amorelli BRA 08:49:01 08:47:41 00:47:26 04:47:01 03:09:35 32% +12% -55% (10) 78
5 11 Erik-Simon Strijk NED 08:56:16 08:53:49 00:52:34 04:53:00 03:05:42 94% +6% -0% (6) 98
6 15 Diego Van Looy BEL 08:58:23 09:03:36 01:04:36 04:52:41 02:56:05 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (144)
7 8 Mike Schifferle SUI 09:06:02 09:02:37 01:00:03 04:55:27 03:05:32 85% +11% -4% (55) 137
8 13 Wouter Monchy BEL 09:15:21 09:21:03 00:51:04 05:03:29 03:15:49 27% +73% -0% (3) 199
9 5 Lucky Berlage BEL 09:15:31 09:10:36 00:56:10 05:02:19 03:12:03 100% +0% -0% (3) (166)
10 10 Darren Jenkins AUS 09:29:00 09:24:25 01:05:57 05:11:49 03:06:15 63% +0% -37% (8) 207
11 12 Michael Louys BEL 09:29:47 09:29:08 01:02:59 05:03:06 03:18:42 69% +10% -21% (9) 221
12 23 Sam Clark NZL 09:32:56 09:37:01 00:57:40 05:09:31 03:20:46 42% +0% -58% (2) (242)
13 18 David Jilek CZE 09:39:18 09:39:13 00:57:58 05:09:12 03:27:07 64% +21% -15% (7) 248
14 27 Lukas Polan CZE 09:52:50 09:56:55 01:02:42 05:18:13 03:26:55 30% +15% -55% (9) 271
15 7 Ludovic Le Guellec FRA 10:08:18 10:12:19 01:00:51 05:31:33 03:30:54 66% +4% -30% (20) 285
16 6 Rob Bobbaers BEL 10:14:26 10:14:22 01:01:38 05:16:18 03:51:31 100% +0% -0% (2) (286)
17 26 Remmert Wielinga NED 10:19:52 10:52:28 01:12:24 05:12:23 03:50:05 7% +11% -82% (6) (297)
18 16 David Krupicka CZE 10:59:11 10:59:26 01:04:37 05:32:56 04:16:38 100% +0% -0% (2) (298)
19 21 Marek Nemcik SVK 11:52:46 12:09:19 01:12:14 06:01:57 04:33:35 32% +25% -43% (35) 303
4 Milan Brons NED n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
9 Omar Brons NED n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
14 Thomas Leboucher FRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
19 Michael Van Cleven BEL n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (1 IM Pro race) (n/a)
22 Olivier Esser BEL n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Consistency Overall
1 62 Daniela Ryf SUI 08:59:50 08:55:12 00:51:04 04:58:08 03:05:38 55% +23% -22% (7) 1
2 57 Mary Beth Ellis USA 09:28:54 09:17:57 00:51:04 05:11:20 03:21:31 93% +0% -7% (17) 13
3 56 Tine Deckers BEL 09:38:11 09:28:53 00:58:06 05:11:08 03:23:57 66% +7% -27% (19) 26
4 60 Katja Konschak GER 09:49:58 09:54:16 00:53:52 05:34:52 03:16:15 51% +35% -15% (17) 81
5 51 Alexandra Tondeur BEL 09:52:19 09:52:32 01:01:11 05:29:44 03:16:24 100% +0% -0% (2) (76)
6 58 Saleta Castro Nogueira ESP 09:56:07 10:05:09 00:55:14 05:34:36 03:21:17 31% +49% -20% (10) 100
7 52 Sarissa De Vries NED 10:01:39 10:10:31 00:52:48 05:27:59 03:35:53 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (110)
8 61 Kate Comber GBR 10:06:26 10:06:14 00:53:48 05:36:05 03:31:34 100% +0% -0% (2) (102)
9 55 Tineke Van den Berg NED 10:07:32 10:12:19 01:04:57 05:23:03 03:34:32 63% +13% -24% (5) 113
10 53 Alena Stevens SVK 10:27:43 10:24:38 01:01:46 05:46:32 03:34:26 65% +23% -12% (5) 146
54 Danne Boterenbrood n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

  • Bas Diederen: 60% (1-1)
  • Markus Fachbach: 17% (5-1)
  • Mark Oude Bennink: 11% (9-1)
  • Igor Amorelli: 7% (14-1)
  • Erik-Simon Strijk: 3% (36-1)

Female Race Participants

There are a number of females on the start list that are unlikely to race if they already qualified for Kona in the July cutoff that happens before IM Netherlands. This includes Daniela Ryf, Tine Deckers, Katja Konschak and possibly Alexandra Tondeur. If all of these end up not racing, then Mary Beth Ellis is the race favorite, and a win should secure an August Kona slot for her.

  • Daniela Ryf: 69% (1-1)
  • Mary Beth Ellis: 18% (4-1)
  • Tine Deckers: 8% (11-1)
  • Katja Konschak: 3% (34-1)
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