KPR Situation Before the Last July Races
Update July 20th: In the latest startlists a few names have been removed. I have crossed them out in the tables below.
The race for the first round of Professional Kona slots is almost over – the July qualifying period that decides 28 female and 40 male slots ends on July 24th. There are only three more Ironman races (Switzerland, Lake Placid as WPRO only and Whistler as MPRO only) and one more 70.3 race (Calgary) before the first cutoff. This post looks at the final slots to be decided based on the rankings before the last weekend and the start lists posted on the Ironman website.
After the races are over, I’ll post the unofficial rankings based on my calculations as soon as possible. (The women’s ranking is already up.)
Women’s Qualifying
Assuming that Heather Jackson validates her slot by finishing in Lake Placid, Ariane Monticelli is currently in the last points qualifying spot. Here’s a table looking at the athletes close the cutoff and those on the startlists with a chance to overtake her:
| Rank | Name | Country | Points | Races | Race Plan | Needed |
| 24 | Walter, Verena | DEU | 4.600 | 3+1 (405/435) | ||
| 25 | Tondeur, Alexandra | BEL | 4.530 | 2+3 (1280/435) | ||
| 26 | Gerdes, Beth | USA | 4.490 | 2+3 (1375/280) | ||
| 27 | Lester, Carrie | AUS | 4.420 | 2+2 | ||
| 28 | Monticeli, Ariane | BRA | 4.335 | 2+3 (340/500) | IM Zürich | |
| 29 | Robertson, Jodie | USA | 4.305 | 1+3 (3400/240) | 70.3 Calgary, |
3rd, |
| 33 | Bilham, Emma | CHE | 3.755 | 1+3 (1600/240) | IM Zürich | 5th |
| 36 | Grohmann, Katharina | DEU | 3.205 | 3+1 (855/320) | IM Zürich | Win |
| 37 | Moeller, Kristin | DEU | 3.145 | 2+1 | IM Zürich | 3rd |
| 38 | Badmann, Natascha | CHE | 3.095 | 2+2 | IM Zürich | 3rd |
| 47 | Herlbauer, Michaela | AUT | 2.585 | 2+2 | IM Zürich | Win |
(Please note that “Needed” is the minimum result needed for qualifying, however it does not assure a slot when others add points as well.)
With Daniela Ryf also on the start line in Zürich, here’s my best guess at who is going to receive one of the open five July slots:
- Verena Walter remains in the Top 28 (1). (It is possible but quite unlikely for her to drop out of the Top 28.)
- Jodie Robertson should be able to finish at least in the Top
10 in Lake Placid3 in Calgary (2). - Zürich is the race with the most athletes looking for slots, with probably two athletes racing well enough for a slot – possibly Ariane Monticelli and one of Emma, Kristin and Natascha (3 & 4).
- The last slot would then go to Alexandra Tondeur – but she could be overtaken when more of the Zürich athletes finish well (5).
This would mean that Beth Gerdes and Carrie Lester would drop out of the July slots and that they would have to hope for a rolldown slot.
Men’s Qualifying
Assuming that Andy Potts validates his slot by finishing in Lake Placid, David Plese is currently in the last points qualifying spot. Here’s a table looking at the athletes close the cutoff and those on the startlists with a chance to overtake him:
| Rank | Name | Country | Points | Races | Race Plan | Needed |
| 31 | Vistica, Andrej | HRV | 3.770 | 3+2 (720/30) | IM Zürich | |
| 32 | Rana, Ivan | ESP | 3.745 | 2+1 | ||
| 33 | Chevrot, Denis | FRA | 3.735 | 2+2 | ||
| 34 | Bittner, Per | DEU | 3.620 | 2+3 (1280/75) | ||
| 35 | Petersen-Bach, Jens | DNK | 3.610 | 3+1 (685/115) | ||
| 36 | Millward, Callum | NZL | 3.580 | 2+3 (685/435) | IM Whistler | |
| 37 | Wiltshire, Harry | GBR | 3.495 | 3+2 (720/135) | IM Zürich | |
| 38 | Billard, Bertrand | FRA | 3.490 | 2+2 | IM Zürich | |
| 39 | Chrabot, Matt | USA | 3.470 | 2+3 (235/345) | ||
| 40 | Plese, David | SVN | 3.415 | 3+2 (90/100) | IM Zürich | |
| 41 | Matthews, Paul | AUS | 3.225 | 1+3 (2455/145) | 70.3 Calgary | 2nd |
| 43 | Bracht, Timo | DEU | 2.995 | 2+2 | IM Zürich | 6th |
| 46 | Gomes, Pedro | PRT | 2.797 | 2+1 | IM Whistler | 5th |
| 49 | Aigroz, Mike | CHE | 2.555 | 2+3 (120/75) | IM Whistler | 4th |
| 54 | Carvalho, Fabio | BRA | 2.460 | 1+3 (1670/135) | IM Zürich | 4th |
| 55 | Van Berkel, Jan | CHE | 2.455 | 2+2 | IM Zürich | 3rd |
| 56 | Wurtele, Trevor | CAN | 2.445 | 1+3 (540/625) | IM Whistler | 3rd |
| 62 | Schildknecht, Ronnie | CHE | 2.190 | 2+0 | IM Zürich | 3rd |
| 63 | Brader, Christian | DEU | 2.099 | 3+1 (405/9) | IM Zürich | 2nd |
| 66 | Daerr, Justin | USA | 2.030 | 2+1 | IM Whistler | 2nd |
Based on the available start lists, here’s my best guess at who is going to receive one of the open ten July slots:
- The athletes currently in #31 to #34 (Andrej, Ivan, Denis and Per) will remain in the Top 40
(1 to 4). - Three of the Whistler athletes will finish well enough for a slot – maybe Callum, Pedro and
ViktorMike (5 to 7). - At least two of the Zürich athletes will finish well. If I had to pick two, I’d go with Ronnie Schildknecht and Timo Bracht (8 and 9).
- The last slot should be decided Jens Petersen-Bach and one other Zürich athlete (10).
But there are so many different scenarios that it’s still possible for any of the athletes in the above table to get a slot or drop out of the slot ranks– it’ll be exciting racing on Sunday!
Second place went to Joe Skipper who finally managed to put together a good bike ride and a great run. He was riding in the third bike group with Cyril Viennot and some others, and while a 4:21 is not slow he still lost some time to the second group with Nils Frommhold, Tyler Butterfield and Nick Kastelein. On the run Joe was reeling in one athlete after another and even managed to overtake Nils in the last few kilometers to claim second place in a well executed race.
Third place went to defending Champion Nils Frommhold. A sub-8 is nothing to be ashamed of, but Nils seemed disappointed that Jan proved he is a step or two above everyone else. Compared to the great races that Frodo and Joe had, Nils’s day pales a little bit. He quickly lost contact to Jan on the swim, then rode with Tyler and Nick but the gap to Jan increased with every split. Nils then had a good 2:48 run but couldn’t make any inroads into Frodo’s lead. Then Joe Skipper took second place from him just a few k’s from the finish. I still think that Nils should be proud of his race, especially after his 29th place in Kona and his DNF in Texas he had a solid race even when things didn’t go quite the way he was hoping for. It’s now time for him to plan his second half of the 2016 season – and he is looking forward to hist first child in November. With extra “daddy power” you can expect him to be back in Kona 2017!
Daniela was as dominating in the women’s race as Jan was in the men’s race – both won by more than 20 minutes ahead of second place. After the frustrating DNF in Frankfurt only two weeks prior to Roth, Dani had a race and result she could enjoy immensely. The fastest time in all three legs and her first marathon under 3 hours lead to a fantastic 8:22, missing Chrissie’s record by only 4 minutes. After the bike she was even under world record pace, something probably no one expected before the race. Dani can be more optimistic about the rest of the season – any doubts after Frankfurt have been blown away with this result. She still has to validate her Kona slot (likely in Zürich next weekend), but after that she’ll focus on defending her 70.3 and Ironman World Champion titles.
Update July 20th: In the latest startlist a few names have been removed. I have crossed them out in the predictions table below.
Update July 20th: In the latest startlist a few names have been removed, I have crossed them out in the predictions table.