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2017

Ironman Australia 2017 (May 7th) – Seedings

IMAustraliaLogo

Update May 4th: Pedro Gomes announced on Twitter he’s focusing on IM Brasil.

Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2005 Chris McCormack (AUS) 08:25:44 Lisa Bentley (CAN) 09:13:20
2006 Chris McCormack (AUS) 08:20:42 Lisa Bentley (CAN) 09:19:44
2007 Patrick Vernay (NCL) 08:21:49 Rebekah Keat (AUS) 09:12:59
2008 Patrick Vernay (NCL) 08:31:32 Chrissie Wellington (GBR) 09:03:54
2009 Patrick Vernay (NCL) 08:24:53 Chrissie Wellington (GBR) 08:57:10
2010 Patrick Vernay (NCL) 08:23:54 Carrie Lester (AUS) 09:23:46
2011 Pete Jacobs (AUS) 08:29:28 Caroline Steffen (SUI) 09:29:54
2012 Paul Ambrose (AUS) 08:17:38 Michelle Gailey (AUS) 09:34:57
2013 Luke Bell (AUS) 08:30:23 Rebecca Hoschke (AUS) 09:34:55
2014 Elliot Holtham (CAN) 08:35:18 Melissa Hauschildt (AUS) 09:28:43
2015 Paul Ambrose (AUS) 08:35:53 Michelle Bremer (NZL) 09:38:24
2016 Tim Reed (AUS) 08:16:34 Beth Gerdes (USA)
Michelle Bremer (NZL)		 09:10:28
09:13:34

Beth Gerdes was DQ’d a couple of months after the 2016 race because of increased levels of Ostarine, possibly caused by tainted salt tablet. For more details, please check out her blog post about this incident.

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Tim Reed AUS 00:47:00 04:34:30 02:51:32 08:16:34
2 David Dellow AUS 00:44:42 04:36:48 02:57:23 08:22:18
3 Clayton Fettell AUS 00:43:47 04:29:14 03:07:02 08:23:22

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Beth Gerdes USA 00:56:47 05:13:54 02:56:10 09:10:28
2 1 Michelle Bremer NZL 00:54:28 05:03:54 03:11:46 09:13:34
3 2 Dimity-Lee Duke AUS 00:56:51 05:17:25 03:24:17 09:42:16
4 3 Melanie Burke NZL 01:01:31 05:24:27 03:26:54 09:56:54

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:16:34 Tim Reed 2016-05-01
Swim overall 00:43:47 Clayton Fettell 2016-05-01
Swim overall 00:43:47 Josh Amberger 2016-05-01
Bike overall 04:27:51 Dougal Allan 2016-05-01
Run overall 02:47:20 Tim Van Berkel 2012-04-29
Total female 08:57:10 Chrissie Wellington 2009-04-05
Swim female 00:48:42 Melissa Ashton 2006-05-11
Bike female 05:00:57 Carrie Lester 2010-03-28
Run female 02:56:10
03:01:06		 Beth Gerdes
Lisa Bentley		 2016-05-01
2006-05-11

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Australia is 06:44.

Race Adjustments for IM Australia

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Finishers Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2006 06:16 02:34 -05:19 01:33 30 06:16 02:34 -05:19 01:33
2007 06:51 02:07 -03:18 01:24 36 06:34 02:20 -04:18 01:29
2008 03:29 00:33 -00:35 00:38 24 05:32 01:45 -03:04 01:12
2009 05:55 00:15 -02:50 00:47 28 05:38 01:22 -03:00 01:06
2010 11:09 05:12 03:02 -02:52 18 06:44 02:08 -01:48 00:18
2011 06:26 02:03 -02:30 01:27 14 06:41 02:07 -01:55 00:30
2012 10:09 02:50 00:15 04:52 9 07:11 02:14 -01:36 01:07
2013 12:58 01:43 -01:55 05:23 9 07:54 02:10 -01:39 01:39
2014 12:30 04:04 -02:38 09:33 15 of 17 08:25 02:22 -01:45 02:32
2015 -00:46 03:36 -00:50 -01:52 18 of 24 07:30 02:30 -01:40 02:05
2016 -00:50 02:24 03:31 01:35 23 of 29 06:44 02:29 -01:11 02:03

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Australia is a P-2000 race. It has a total prize purse of 40.000 US$.

Male Race Participants

The strength of the field is 8% of a typical Kona field.

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Consistency Overall
1 1 Tim Reed AUS 08:13:55 08:34:05 00:45:53 04:33:57 02:49:04 9% +37% -53% (5) (40)
2 3 David Dellow AUS 08:18:53 08:25:23 00:44:21 04:37:04 02:52:28 76% +2% -23% (15) 19
3 5 Michael Fox AUS 08:24:20 08:40:35 00:43:54 04:39:41 02:55:46 66% +34% -0% (3) 70
4 7 Brad Kahlefeldt AUS 08:24:51 08:30:57 00:43:53 04:44:11 02:51:47 68% +0% -32% (3) (29)
5 4 Clayton Fettell AUS 08:25:00 08:42:35 00:43:03 04:31:58 03:04:59 41% +14% -45% (10) 74
6 2 Paul Ambrose AUS 08:32:57 08:42:17 00:47:39 04:38:56 03:01:21 49% +3% -48% (21) 73
7 8 Pedro Gomes POR 08:33:06 08:35:16 00:49:45 04:44:56 02:53:25 67% +1% -31% (25) 51
8 6 Chris McDonald AUS 08:35:32 08:43:39 00:50:26 04:39:50 03:00:16 65% +15% -20% (44) 78
9 9 Nick Baldwin SEY 08:47:48 09:00:02 00:50:18 04:45:48 03:06:42 69% +0% -31% (18) 137
10 12 Levi Maxwell AUS 08:49:21 09:04:50 00:51:28 04:56:04 02:56:49 48% +52% -0% (2) (153)
11 10 Carl Read NZL 08:55:34 09:08:04 00:50:59 05:01:24 02:58:11 74% +8% -18% (11) 160
12 11 Daniel Brown AUS 10:47:36 11:30:42 01:01:09 05:37:06 04:04:21 45% +0% -55% (2) (295)
13 Nathan Shearer AUS n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)

Female Race Participants

The strength of the field is 1% of a typical Kona field.

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Consistency Overall
1 21 Laura Siddall GBR 09:19:33 09:32:32 00:54:50 05:05:37 03:14:06 63% +30% -7% (10) 33
2 20 Michelle Gailey AUS 09:41:10 09:54:58 00:52:46 05:24:26 03:18:58 70% +0% -30% (10) (70)
3 25 Karen Thibodeau CAN 09:48:05 09:57:46 00:51:27 05:29:28 03:22:10 81% +0% -19% (12) 73
4 22 Jessica Mitchell AUS 10:21:32 10:39:35 01:02:22 05:36:59 03:37:12 100% +0% -0% (2) (141)
5 24 Jessica Richards AUS 10:38:28 11:02:49 01:05:40 05:25:39 04:02:09 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (147)
23 Lauren Parker AUS n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated 0% +0% -100% (3) (n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

2016 Champion Tim Reed is back to defend his title. He faces a number of strong Australian athletes that can easily win the race on a good day:

  • Tim Reed: 47% (1-1)
  • David Dellow: 29% (2-1)
  • Michael Fox: 9% (10-1)
  • Clayton Fettell: 8% (12-1)
  • Chris McDonald: 2% (39-1)
  • Brad Kahlefeldt: 2% (40-1)
  • Paul Ambrose: 2% (61-1)

Female Race Participants

Laura Siddall has already raced two IM distance races in February (2nd at Challenge Wanaka) and March (2nd at IM New Zealand), but she needs a couple more Kona points to qualify (probably xth or better). She’s the clear favorite to win her first IM-distance race, especially as her second place at Challenge Melbourne in April showed that she has recovered well from the racing at the start of the year:

  • Laura Siddall: 73% (1-1)
  • Michelle Gailey: 16% (5-1)
  • Karen Thibodeau: 9% (10-1)

Ironman Lanzarote 2017 (May 20th) – Entry List

Male Race Participants

Romain Guillaume tweeted that Bart Aernouts and Victor Del Corral will also be racing.

Name Nation KPR points KPR races
Marino Vanhoenacker BEL 2500 1+1
Cyril Viennot FRA 2420 2+1
Jesse Thomas USA 2085 1+2 (1100/345)
Carlos Lopez Diaz ESP 2000 1+0
Romain Guillaume FRA 1670 0+2 (0/750)
Karl-Johan Danielsson SWE 845 2+0
Cedric Lassonde FRA 820 1+1
Samuel Huerzeler SUI 710 2+0
Konstantin Bachor GER 560 2+1
Mike Schifferle SUI 525 2+0
Alessandro Degasperi ITA 450 1+0
Philipp Koutny SUI 430 2+1
Diego Van Looy BEL 289 2+1
Andrey Lyatskiy RUS 115 2+0
Alain Djouad-Guibert MOR 80 0+2 (0/15)
Erik Holmberg SWE 30 1+0
Josep Vinolas ESP 10 1+0
Timothy Van Houtem BEL 0 0+0
Malte Bruns GER
Stephen Donnelly IRL
Guillaume Lecallier FRA
Philipp Mock GER
Victor Rodriguez ESP
Frederic Schaffner FRA
Dominique Fernan Wymmersch Gallego ESP

Female Race Participants

Name Nation KPR points KPR races
Lucy Gossage GBR 3445 1+0
Diana Riesler GER 2785 1+1
Darbi Roberts USA 2540 2+0
Alexandra Tondeur BEL 2140 2+1
Kelly Fillnow USA 2005 2+2 (405/140)
Tine Holst DEN 1700 2+1
Kate Comber GBR 1240 2+1
Saleta Castro Nogueira ESP 235 1+0
Lucy Charles GBR 115 0+1
Camille Deligny FRA 0 0+0
Pia Englyst DEN

Challenge Taiwan 2017 (April 29th) – Seedings

CHTaiwanUpdate April 15th: Callum Millard has announced that he’ll be racing IM Texas instead of Challenge Taiwan.

Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2013 Dylan McNeice (NZL) 08:16:21 Belinda Granger (AUS) 09:23:15
2014 Dylan McNeice (NZL) 08:23:44 Britta Martin (NZL) 09:02:23
2016 Fredrik Croneborg (SWE) 08:30:28 Shiao-yu Li (TWN) 09:40:05

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Fredrik Croneborg SWE 00:51:56 04:33:57 02:59:10 08:30:28
2 Dylan McNeice NZL 00:45:35 04:35:19 03:21:31 08:48:37
3 Patrick Evoe USA 00:54:22 04:28:55 03:26:35 08:55:56

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Shiao-yu Li TWN 01:01:07 05:00:43 03:31:31 09:40:05
2 Jessica Fleming AUS 01:00:50 05:03:33 03:38:22 09:48:48
3 Kathryn Haesner NZL 00:57:07 05:14:49 03:31:04 09:49:33

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:16:21 Dylan McNeice 2013-05-04
Swim overall 00:45:35 Dylan McNeice 2016-05-07
Bike overall 04:26:56 Jason Shortis 2014-04-19
Run overall 02:52:33 Fredrik Croneborg 2013-05-04
Total female 09:02:23 Britta Martin 2014-04-19
Swim female 00:53:23 Hillary Biscay 2014-04-19
Bike female 04:54:37 Britta Martin 2014-04-19
Run female 03:04:16 Britta Martin 2014-04-19

Course Rating

The Course Rating for Challenge Taiwan is 09:38.

Race Adjustments for Challenge Taiwan

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Finishers Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2013 12:08 -04:03 15:08 04:14 14 12:08 -04:03 15:08 04:14
2014 20:48 -00:25 12:17 -02:01 17 of 22 16:28 -02:14 13:42 01:06
2016 -04:02 -00:20 06:09 -12:27 12 09:38 -01:36 11:11 -03:25

Male Race Participants

The strength of the field is 5% of a typical Kona field.

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Consistency Overall
1 Fredrik Croneborg SWE 08:23:47 08:37:44 00:52:57 04:31:30 02:54:20 85% +3% -12% (11) 59
2 Callum Millward * NZL 08:23:53 08:34:52 00:50:14 04:31:11 02:57:28 41% +0% -59% (6) 45
3 Dougal Allan NZL 08:24:16 08:35:08 00:59:03 04:18:06 03:02:07 81% +8% -10% (8) 48
4 Ritchie Nicholls GBR 08:35:20 08:49:53 00:52:40 04:43:39 02:54:01 48% +0% -52% (6) 97
5 Courtney Ogden AUS 08:39:05 08:45:09 00:52:37 04:35:58 03:05:29 63% +6% -31% (21) 85
6 Denis Sketako SLO 08:40:41 08:59:26 00:55:54 04:33:24 03:06:22 51% +49% -0% (3) 133
7 Guy Crawford NZL 08:52:16 09:15:10 00:50:15 04:29:59 03:27:02 46% +24% -30% (13) 180
8 Petr Vabrousek CZE 08:57:26 09:18:31 00:57:58 04:43:46 03:10:42 64% +1% -35% (97) 191
9 Frederic Garcia FRA 09:08:59 09:27:20 01:01:22 04:53:04 03:09:33 52% +0% -48% (4) (217)
10 Young Hwan Oh KOR 09:20:06 09:32:28 01:05:37 04:56:17 03:13:12 51% +29% -20% (7) 229
11 Valentin Zasypkin RUS 10:21:47 10:44:55 01:14:19 05:18:12 03:44:16 9% +48% -43% (6) 289
12 Josef Svoboda CZE 11:14:57 11:48:13 01:18:31 05:39:49 04:11:37 44% +22% -34% (15) 296
Christian Altstadt GER n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)

Note: Athletes with a ‘*’ are also registered for another race within 8 days.

Female Race Participants

The strength of the field is 3% of a typical Kona field.

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Consistency Overall
1 Kathryn Haesner NZL 09:38:38 10:30:26 00:58:53 05:12:04 03:22:41 25% +36% -39% (3) (128)
2 Verena Walter GER 09:39:57 09:51:14 01:01:52 05:04:23 03:28:42 53% +36% -11% (7) 65
3 Lucie Reed CZE 09:43:00 09:52:51 00:54:18 05:15:51 03:27:51 64% +0% -36% (27) 67
4 Kate Bevilaqua AUS 09:43:58 10:12:26 00:56:45 05:10:22 03:31:51 25% +6% -69% (28) (102)
5 Alyssa Godesky USA 09:55:34 10:10:02 01:02:55 05:19:32 03:28:07 63% +28% -10% (16) 95
Alise Selsmark AUS n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

  • Fredrik Croneborg: 46% (1-1)
  • Dougal Allan: 34% (2-1)
  • Callum Millward: 14% (6-1)
  • Ritchie Nicholls: 2% (40-1)
  • Denis Sketako: 2% (44-1)
  • Courtney Ogden: 2% (63-1)

Female Race Participants

  • Kathryn Haesner: 39% (2-1)
  • Verena Walter: 29% (2-1)
  • Lucie Reed: 14% (6-1)
  • Kate Bevilaqua: 10% (9-1)
  • Alyssa Godesky: 8% (12-1)

Looking forward to the 70.3 Championships in Chattanooga

In addition to the ratings for full-distance races, I’ve started to collect and analyze results for “half-distance” races. The most important race on this distance is the “70.3 World Championships”. After being held in Clearwater, Florida from 2006 to 2010 and Henderson, Nevada for three years, the race venue has been changing each year. Last year it was held in Mooloolaba, Australia, this year’s edition will be a two-day event in Chattanooga, TN before it moves to Port Elizabeth in South Africa for next year.

Roughly five months before the race in Chattanooga, this post has a look at some of the athletes we can expect to play a major role in September. The Northern Hemisphere racing is just starting to pick up, so there may be new names coming to the front or established athletes changing their focus. For example, at the start of last season hardly anyone would have picked Holly Lawrence for a top finish at 70.3 Worlds, but then she had a string of good results over the summer and went on to win the 2016 70.3 World Championships. My friends at TriZone will be posting previews for the big 70.3 races using some of my data, have a look at their site as the season progresses!

Male Contenders for the 2017 Title

There’s a pretty big group of established 70.3 racers with excellent winning chances:

  • Sebastian Kienle (23% winning chance)
    Of course the 2012 and 2013 Champion has to be considered as one of the top favorites. But in the last years the 70.3 Champs have “only” been a stepping stone for Sebi to bigger goals in October.
  • Lionel Sanders (16%)
    Lionel has been racing extremely well over the 70.3 distance, but so far a podium at the 70.3 Worlds has eluded him. For 2017 he chose to focus on improving his swim so he has a reasonable to overcome the dynamics of the big fields that made it extremely hard in Mooloolaba to catch up to the main group. He has also said that he will not race Kona and will have the 70.3 Champs as his main focus for the season.
  • Terenzo Bozzone (14%)
    The 2008 Champion continues to race well on the 70.3 distance but it seems that he shifted his focus to the full distance. But he’s an experienced athlete that is still able to mix it up with the best on the half-distance.
  • Ruedi Wild (14%)
    Ruedi was 3rd at the 2016 Champs and has continued to win races even against strong competition. Even though he hasn’t won a big title yet, he should be considered for more than “just” a podium finish.
  • Javier Gomez (12%)
    By winning the title in 2014, Javier has shown that he’ll be a top contender when he decides to focus on the longer distances. It’s not clear if that’s his plan for the 2017 season as he’d love to contend for the ITU World title – and the Chattanooga race is just one week before the ITU Grand Final in Rotterdam. If he’s still in contention for the ITU title, I expect him to skip 70.3 Worlds this season. If he isn’t, he’ll be hard to ignore.
  • Tim Reed (8%)
    Winning the 2016 title in his home country was an emotional highlight for Tim Reed – and quite a surprise.  A successful title defense is probably even more unexpected.
Some other names:
  • Tim Don (4%)
    Tim focuses his racing on the 70.3 distance and is extremely successful. But he might lack just the last 1% of top speed to contend for the title in the stacked field I expect in Chattanooga.
  • Sam Appleton (3%)
    “Appo” has been steadily improving and after a 5th place in 2016, he’ll be eying the podium in 2017.
  • Andy Potts (3%)
    Andy continues to race well but seeing him repeat his 2007 title would be a huge upset. He’s likely focusing on racing well in Kona.
Some notable athletes are missing above because they have no recent 70.3 results (and therefore no winning probability):
  • Jan Frodeno
    Jan hasn’t finished a 70.3 for more than a year – and it’s unclear if he decides to tackle qualifying for Chattanooga. He has shown in 2016 that his main focus will be on defending his title in October and that he will sacrifice other goals for this.
  • Alistair and Jonathan Brownlee
    There has been speculation that the Brownlees will be moving to longer distances – if they decide to do so they’ll be immediately “short listed” for the title. However, it’s unclear if this will happen in 2017 or later. Alistair is on a few start lists for half-distance races so there seems to be a good chance to see him race in Chattanooga.

Female Contenders for the 2017 Title

While there are easily four or more male contenders for the 70.3 title, it looks as if there are two clear front runners on the female side:

  • Holly Lawrence (45% winning chance)
    Holly was the dominating 70.3 athlete of 2016, winning a couple of big races over the summer and also capturing the title with a strong swim/bike combo. Her win at the early season race in Oceanside has shown that she’s able to race at a similar level in 2017.
  • Daniela Ryf (28%)
    The 2016 70.3 Champs was the first race that Daniela was not able to win since her Kona debut in 2014. As usual she’ll have a big racing schedule over the summer (including a rumored world record attempt in Roth), and Chattanoga may be in the middle of a big Kona training block – similar to last year when she didn’t appear to be 100% fresh for Mooloolaba.
However, this does not mean that one of these two will automatically win the title, there are a lot of other athletes to consider. Just a few examples:
  • Melissa Hauschildt (10%)
    Mel has won the title in 2011 and 2013 and was the runner up in 2016. If she’s healthy, she is one of the few that’s able to beat Daniela and Holly.
  • Heather Wurtele (3%)
    Heather has been on the podium for the last three years and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see her extend that streak. But in past 70.3 Championship races she had to make up too much time after the swim to be in contention for the title.
There are a lot more athletes that wouldn’t be a big surprise to make it onto the podium when they are healthy and decide to put a focus on 70.3 Worlds: Helle Frederiksen, Angela Naeth, Heather Jackson, Meredith Kessler, Ellie Salthouse, Annabel Luxford just to name a few.

Ironman Texas 2017 (April 22nd) – Seedings

IMTexasLogo

IM Texas is the second of the 2017 Regional Championship races – a lot of Kona points (4.000 for the winner), a large prize purse (150.000 US$) and automatic qualifier slots for the winners practically guarantee strong Pro fields. This year’s lists of participants are very interesting, as both the male and female fields do not seem to have a clear favorite.

Update April 13th: On the latest start list Kyrill Kotshegarov is a late addition while Haley Chura and Kyle Buckingham have withdrawn.

Update April 17th: A few more updates: Jens Petersen-Bach, Nikki Bartlett, Kirsty Jahn and Mackenzie Madison are no longer racing.

Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2011 Eneko Llanos (ESP) 08:08:20 Catriona Morrison (GBR) 08:57:51
2012 Jordan Rapp (USA) 08:10:44 Mary Beth Ellis (USA) 08:54:58
2013 Paul Amey (GBR) 08:25:06 Rachel Joyce (GBR) 08:49:14
2014 Bevan Docherty (NZL) 08:09:37 Kelly Williamson (USA) 08:54:42
2015 Matt Hanson (USA) 08:07:03 Angela Naeth (CAN) 08:55:19
2016 Patrick Lange (GER) 07:13:13 Julia Gajer (GER) 08:11:01

Last Year’s TOP 3

Last year’s race had a shortened bike leg when there were problems getting the necessary permits and bad weather created the additional need for some last-minute scrambles. Therefore, the winning times are not eligible as course records.

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Patrick Lange GER 00:48:57 03:39:28 02:40:01 07:13:13
2 Matthew Russell USA 00:56:41 03:31:47 02:48:14 07:21:56
3 Terenzo Bozzone NZL 00:48:59 03:39:27 02:52:53 07:25:55

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Julia Gajer GER 00:54:51 04:01:44 03:08:49 08:11:01
2 Jodie Robertson USA 01:07:21 04:01:55 02:59:26 08:16:30
3 Lisa Roberts USA 01:06:52 04:06:18 02:59:03 08:17:58

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:07:03 Matt Hanson 2015-05-16
Swim overall 00:46:20 John Flanagan 2011-05-21
Bike overall 04:10:07 Joe Skipper 2015-05-16
Run overall 02:41:38 Matt Hanson 2014-05-17
Total female 08:49:14 Rachel Joyce 2013-05-18
Swim female 00:51:49 Kelly Williamson 2014-05-17
Bike female 04:40:39 Corinne Abraham 2015-05-16
Run female 02:51:46 Caitlin Snow 2012-05-19

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Texas is 11:51.

Race Adjustments for IM Texas

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Finishers Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2011 11:41 -02:11 19:12 -02:48 41 11:41 -02:11 19:12 -02:48
2012 14:02 -00:50 15:23 03:36 27 12:51 -01:30 17:18 00:24
2013 07:03 -01:11 16:44 01:16 30 of 46 10:55 -01:24 17:06 00:41
2014 17:00 01:02 17:51 03:54 44 of 55 12:26 -00:47 17:17 01:30
2015 09:29 -01:19 19:29 -04:34 33 of 52 11:51 -00:54 17:44 00:17

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Texas is a P-4000 race. It has a total prize purse of 150.000 US$.

Estimated Time Plan

The following table shows the time plan for the race start and the estimated times for the first athlete in the transition zones or across the finish line. The estimates are based on the start time and my time estimates, these times can change based on how fast or slow the race ends up:

What Est. Racetime Est. Local Time
Male Pro Start 06:25
Female Pro Start 06:30
Age Group Start 06:40
First Male in T1 0:48  07:13
First Female in T1 0:50  07:20
First Male in T2 5:07  11:32
First Female in T2 5:51  12:21
Male Winner 8:14  14:39 (2:39pm)
Female Winner 9:09  15:39 (3:39 pm)

The Woodlands is on Central Daylight Time, 5 hours ahead of UTC. Here are the conversions to a few other time zones:

  • + 15 hours: Sydney (AEST), race starts at 21:25
  • +7 hours: Central Europe (CEST), race starts at 13:25
  • +6 hours: United Kingdom (BST), race starts at 12:25
  • +1 hour: US East Coast (EDT), race starts at 7:25am
  • – 2 hours: US West Coast (PDT), race starts at 4:25am

Male Race Participants

The strength of the field is 31% of a typical Kona field.

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Consistency Overall
1 1 Matt Hanson USA 08:14:16 08:33:01 00:54:42 04:28:39 02:45:55 37% +27% -36% (11) 37
2 40 Ivan Tutukin RUS 08:15:19 08:36:37 00:49:33 04:35:54 02:44:52 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (55)
3 18 Will Clarke GBR 08:15:41 08:38:01 00:50:57 04:29:52 02:49:53 12% +44% -44% (5) 62
4 8 Bas Diederen NED 08:16:03 08:30:12 00:49:18 04:22:15 02:59:29 39% +6% -55% (18) 29
5 2 Jordan Rapp USA 08:17:07 08:32:17 00:53:28 04:19:52 02:58:47 69% +6% -25% (21) 35
6 4 Ronnie Schildknecht SUI 08:17:37 08:27:20 00:54:18 04:25:01 02:53:18 80% +1% -19% (31) 23
7 22 Joe Skipper GBR 08:18:02 08:31:46 00:55:32 04:21:21 02:56:09 42% +24% -34% (15) 33
8 3 Matthew Russell USA 08:18:51 08:33:40 00:56:41 04:22:48 02:54:22 45% +40% -15% (41) 39
9 7 Tyler Butterfield BMU 08:21:38 08:40:22 00:50:38 04:22:57 03:03:03 47% +15% -38% (13) 70
10 12 Callum Millward NZL 08:21:46 08:34:52 00:50:26 04:29:22 02:56:59 41% +0% -59% (6) 46
11 6 Kyle Buckingham ZAF 08:22:03 08:33:44 00:51:00 04:26:10 02:59:53 51% +17% -32% (12) 40
12 16 Paul Matthews AUS 08:22:23 08:34:55 00:48:52 04:28:14 03:00:16 45% +0% -55% (12) 47
13 13 Andrew Starykowicz USA 08:23:25 08:31:01 00:50:39 04:11:04 03:16:43 60% +0% -40% (7) (31)
14 11 Jens Petersen-Bach DEN 08:23:30 08:39:30 00:52:14 04:32:20 02:53:57 54% +0% -46% (18) 66
15 14 David Plese SLO 08:25:38 08:37:25 00:54:15 04:27:29 02:58:55 83% +12% -6% (20) 57
16 19 Daniel Fontana ITA 08:26:02 08:36:45 00:51:56 04:31:10 02:57:56 55% +0% -45% (14) 55
(16) 42 Kirill Kotshegarov EST 08:26:31 08:37:12 00:55:07 04:24:45 03:01:39 57% +29% -13% (14) 55
17 21 Stephen Kilshaw CAN 08:26:32 08:55:37 00:54:01 04:30:33 02:56:57 39% +60% -1% (9) 118
18 10 Chris McDonald AUS 08:27:57 08:43:39 00:54:14 04:24:56 03:03:47 65% +15% -20% (44) 79
19 29 Marc Duelsen GER 08:32:26 08:44:04 00:54:34 04:31:32 03:01:20 82% +0% -18% (9) 80
20 28 Trevor Delsaut FRA 08:33:20 08:54:04 00:55:23 04:35:15 02:57:42 36% +7% -57% (25) 111
21 9 Jozsef Major HUN 08:34:02 08:53:16 01:00:20 04:29:44 02:58:59 61% +24% -16% (32) 108
22 38 Jonathan Shearon USA 08:34:15 08:52:47 00:54:58 04:26:45 03:07:33 57% +10% -33% (16) 105
23 5 Paul Ambrose AUS 08:34:39 08:42:17 00:52:14 04:29:20 03:08:05 49% +3% -48% (21) 74
24 17 Matic Modic SLO 08:37:55 08:53:17 00:57:25 04:35:23 03:00:07 63% +16% -20% (10) 109
25 27 Karl-Johan Danielsson SWE 08:38:30 08:58:30 00:52:35 04:26:02 03:14:53 33% +34% -33% (12) 131
26 15 Harry Wiltshire GBR 08:39:43 08:56:45 00:49:12 04:37:58 03:07:34 34% +23% -43% (19) 124
27 32 Philipp Koutny SUI 08:40:39 09:00:58 00:52:45 04:32:12 03:10:42 26% +0% -74% (4) (145)
28 30 Adam Gordon AUS 08:45:07 09:05:27 00:56:21 04:38:55 03:04:51 31% +39% -30% (6) 156
29 20 Leon Griffin AUS 08:54:52 09:23:53 00:52:39 04:30:19 03:26:53 10% +9% -81% (7) (203)
30 34 Tomas Mika CZE 08:56:13 09:14:55 00:56:38 04:49:33 03:05:03 67% +8% -25% (7) 180
31 26 Antony Costes FRA 09:00:16 09:34:04 00:50:16 04:29:16 03:35:44 16% +0% -84% (5) 234
32 41 Hendrik-Jan Verhaegen BEL 09:08:59 09:26:43 00:57:21 04:47:11 03:19:26 60% +0% -40% (7) 218
33 33 Colin Laughery USA 09:10:41 09:23:03 01:00:50 04:46:57 03:17:54 100% +0% -0% (5) 200
34 24 Jarrod Shoemaker USA 09:12:50 09:36:35 00:48:08 05:08:49 03:10:52 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (238)
35 36 Patrick Schuster USA 09:15:51 09:43:21 01:04:54 04:40:38 03:25:18 64% +18% -17% (8) 249
36 37 Matt Shanks USA 09:25:06 09:43:42 01:01:17 04:57:18 03:21:31 67% +33% -0% (4) 250
37 31 Peter Kotland CZE 09:34:32 09:53:23 01:00:27 04:52:30 03:36:35 62% +23% -15% (23) 264
23 Robert Wade IRL n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (1 IM Pro race) (n/a)
25 James Capparell USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
35 Timothy Nichols USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
39 Frank Souza BRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (1 IM Pro race) (n/a)

Female Race Participants

The strength of the field is 20% of a typical Kona field.

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Consistency Overall
1 71 Jocelyn McCauley USA 09:08:57 09:35:14 00:58:11 04:56:20 03:09:25 21% +49% -30% (6) 37
2 51 Kelly Williamson USA 09:10:14 09:33:32 00:54:38 05:10:02 03:00:34 83% +9% -8% (13) 35
3 65 Malindi Elmore CAN 09:13:24 09:37:12 01:03:00 04:57:31 03:07:54 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (41)
4 52 Tine Deckers BEL 09:15:59 09:32:15 00:59:47 04:48:30 03:22:42 55% +6% -39% (20) 32
5 55 Lauren Brandon USA 09:16:24 09:40:19 00:50:17 04:55:16 03:25:51 59% +0% -41% (2) (44)
6 57 Michaela Herlbauer AUT 09:18:42 09:29:27 00:58:07 05:01:29 03:14:05 71% +18% -11% (7) 26
7 53 Haley Chura USA 09:20:14 09:39:36 00:50:49 05:02:58 03:21:27 64% +14% -22% (9) (44)
8 61 Maja Stage Nielsen DEN 09:24:14 09:48:29 01:00:29 05:00:38 03:18:07 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (57)
9 60 Celine Schaerer SUI 09:29:11 09:42:04 00:52:43 05:06:32 03:24:56 86% +0% -14% (7) 48
10 56 Amber Ferreira USA 09:31:19 09:57:43 00:57:45 05:03:06 03:25:29 44% +15% -41% (17) 73
11 63 Kirsty Jahn CAN 09:31:41 10:02:13 01:01:06 05:12:27 03:13:08 32% +0% -68% (2) (82)
12 74 Darbi Roberts USA 09:31:55 09:49:55 00:55:46 05:08:09 03:23:00 64% +0% -36% (7) 60
13 59 Jodie Robertson USA 09:33:53 09:52:38 01:06:02 05:10:18 03:12:34 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (68)
14 64 Nikki Bartlett GBR 09:34:09 09:55:09 01:02:08 05:01:00 03:26:02 100% +0% -0% (2) (71)
15 54 Alicia Kaye USA 09:38:27 09:51:35 00:54:07 05:04:12 03:35:08 100% +0% -0% (2) (66)
16 62 Jessica Jones Meyers USA 09:41:15 10:06:13 01:00:54 05:06:44 03:28:37 100% +0% -0% (5) (90)
17 72 Leslie DiMichele Miller USA 09:41:21 10:02:05 01:00:10 05:15:31 03:20:40 73% +0% -27% (5) 81
18 70 Mackenzie Madison USA 09:41:48 10:03:03 01:01:46 05:05:19 03:29:42 35% +7% -58% (13) 83
19 58 Shiao-yu Li TWN 09:45:38 09:58:45 01:07:52 05:10:20 03:22:26 56% +17% -27% (13) 75
20 68 Caroline Livesey GBR 09:51:47 10:06:41 01:03:33 05:09:53 03:33:22 68% +0% -32% (7) 90
21 66 Annett Finger GER 09:54:58 10:10:59 01:03:19 05:12:43 03:33:56 92% +0% -8% (4) 99
22 73 Ashley Paulson USA 09:59:40 10:14:08 01:15:03 05:21:11 03:18:26 100% +0% -0% (3) 104
23 67 Erin Green USA 10:06:04 10:30:35 01:03:33 05:24:45 03:32:46 46% +54% -0% (2) (132)
24 69 Nicole Luse USA 10:19:22 10:45:29 01:11:49 05:32:52 03:29:41 48% +52% -0% (2) (144)
25 75 Francesca Sanjana GBR 10:37:39 11:05:04 01:08:34 05:27:06 03:56:59 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (149)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

A lot of dark red in the “Expected Time” column and the winning percentages below show that there isn’t a clear favorite in the field. 2015 winner Matt Hanson is my top pick, but he only has a slim margin over last year’s second place finisher Matthew Russell who has been consistently on the podium in his last IM-distance races but hasn’t won an IM since 2012. Add in 2012 winner Jordan Rapp (always a contender for a top finish), the two sub-8 Brits Joe Skipper (likely disappointed with his 12th place from IM South Africa) and Will Clarke and veterans Ronnie Schildknecht and Bas Diederen and you end up with a list of potential winners that’s extremely long and could easily be extended!

  • Matt Hanson: 17% (5-1)
  • Matthew Russell: 15% (6-1)
  • Joe Skipper: 14% (6-1)
  • Ronnie Schildknecht: 12% (8-1)
  • Bas Diederen: 10% (9-1)
  • Will Clarke: 9% (10-1)
  • Jordan Rapp: 8% (12-1)

Female Race Participants

The situation on the female side is also anything but clear. Jocelyn McCauley has won her last two Ironman races in Mallorca and New Zealand, but she has only had seven weeks to freshen up and rebuild. Tine Deckers has had a crash in one of her recent prep races and it’s unclear wether she’ll be able to race. Kelly Williamson (winner in 2014) didn’t have the 70.3 results this season to build much confidence going into Texas – quite in contrast to Haley Chura who won 70.3 Buenos Aires but has to recover from traveling all the way to China for 70.3 Liuzhou. (Since the original post, Haley has withdrawn.)  So maybe it’s time for a surprise winner? Michi Herlbauer was probably an unknown in the US before this year (even though she was second at IM Austria in sub-9 last year), maybe her second place at 70.3 Texas helped her gain some new fans. Malindi Elmore has only raced one IM before – finishing third in Arizona in sub-9. Finally, Lauren Brandon has shown with her second place at IM Cozumel that she is more than “only” a fast swimmer over the IM-distance.

  • Jocelyn McCauley: 41% (1-1)
  • Tine Deckers: 17% (5-1)
  • Kelly Williamson: 15% (6-1)
  • Haley Chura: 9% (10-1)
  • Michaela Herlbauer: 8% (11-1)
  • Malindi Elmore: 2% (40-1)
  • Lauren Brandon: 2% (49-1)
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