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Challenge Venice 2017 (June 11th) – Seedings

ChVeniceLogoPrevious Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2016 Dirk Wijnalda (NED) 08:09:14 Erika Csomor (HUN) 09:04:00

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Dirk Wijnalda NED 00:57:24 04:23:22 02:48:28 08:09:14
2 Sergio Marques POR 00:57:09 04:25:29 02:56:50 08:19:28
3 Malte Bruns GER 00:54:23 04:26:54 02:59:01 08:20:18

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Erika Csomor HUN 01:04:21 04:51:06 03:08:33 09:04:00
2 Martina Dogana ITA 00:59:49 04:56:00 03:08:53 09:04:42
3 Carla Van Rooijen NED 01:15:39 04:59:47 03:17:37 09:33:03

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:09:14 Dirk Wijnalda 2016-06-05
Swim overall 00:54:06 Zoltan Petsuk 2016-06-05
Bike overall 04:23:22 Dirk Wijnalda 2016-06-05
Run overall 02:48:28 Dirk Wijnalda 2016-06-05
Total female 09:04:00 Erika Csomor 2016-06-05
Swim female 00:57:18 Deborah Van Gossum 2016-06-05
Bike female 04:51:06 Erika Csomor 2016-06-05
Run female 03:08:33 Erika Csomor 2016-06-05

Course Rating

The Course Rating for Challenge Venice is 30:27.

Race Adjustments for Challenge Venice

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Finishers Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2016 30:27 -01:30 27:34 05:38 16 of 19 30:27 -01:30 27:34 05:38

Prize Money

Challenge Venice has a total prize purse of 38.000 EUR.

Male Race Participants

The strength of the field is 2% of a typical Kona field.

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. T2 Exp. Run Consistency Overall
1 15 Jan Raphael GER 08:06:54 08:37:25 00:51:06 04:16:21 05:12:27 02:54:27 95% +0% -5% (26) 60
2 3 Alberto Casadei ITA 08:08:07 08:47:26 00:49:29 04:23:23 05:17:52 02:50:15 17% +34% -49% (9) 94
3 5 Per Bittner GER 08:10:59 08:39:45 00:51:20 04:17:57 05:14:16 02:56:43 55% +9% -36% (22) 68
4 1 Dirk Wijnalda NED 08:12:53 08:53:35 00:57:41 04:21:19 05:24:00 02:48:53 82% +8% -10% (20) 113
5 16 Matic Modic SLO 08:17:13 08:58:37 00:57:17 04:22:09 05:24:27 02:52:46 53% +14% -34% (11) 138
6 2 Sergio Marques POR 08:21:38 08:55:58 00:56:48 04:26:31 05:28:19 02:53:19 67% +4% -29% (37) 122
7 10 Lars Vold NOR 08:30:13 09:08:53 00:55:48 04:22:05 05:22:54 03:07:19 100% +0% -0% (2) (166)
8 13 Pascal Ramali GER 08:30:32 09:07:03 01:01:30 04:18:09 05:24:39 03:05:53 51% +0% -49% (4) 164
9 14 Thomas Bosch GER 08:39:59 09:25:06 00:59:46 04:31:13 05:35:59 03:04:00 24% +40% -36% (3) (209)
10 6 Lucky Berlage BEL 08:43:47 09:17:55 01:02:24 04:29:34 05:36:59 03:06:48 100% +0% -0% (5) 193
11 11 Marius Elvedal NOR 08:45:18 09:30:42 00:59:23 04:32:09 05:36:32 03:08:46 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (234)
12 12 Hendrik-Jan Verhaegen BEL 08:47:02 09:26:43 00:57:15 04:33:27 05:35:42 03:11:20 60% +0% -40% (7) 223
13 9 Stefan Overmars NED 08:49:02 09:34:45 00:56:57 04:26:29 05:28:26 03:20:36 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (241)
4 Davide Giardini USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
7 Lukas Kramer GER n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
8 Marc Unger GER n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)

Female Race Participants

The strength of the field is 3% of a typical Kona field.

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. T2 Exp. Run Consistency Overall
1 18 Sofie Goos BEL 08:59:56 09:40:44 00:58:46 04:45:05 05:48:51 03:11:05 59% +17% -24% (24) (46)
2 17 Martina Dogana ITA 09:05:29 09:40:45 00:59:42 04:52:13 05:56:55 03:08:34 99% +1% -0% (12) (46)
3 22 Lucie Reed CZE 09:18:55 09:54:36 00:55:00 05:00:34 06:00:34 03:18:21 70% +0% -30% (28) 67
4 19 Simona Krivankova CZE 09:23:07 10:12:27 01:11:10 04:57:29 06:13:39 03:09:28 36% +64% -0% (2) (104)
5 21 Vanessa Pereira POR 09:45:07 10:29:55 01:05:06 05:06:18 06:16:24 03:28:43 66% +0% -34% (11) 132
20 Sonja Skevin CRO n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

  • Jan Raphael: 42% (1-1)
  • Dirk Wijnalda: 28% (3-1)
  • Alberto Casadei: 13% (7-1)
  • Per Bittner: 9% (10-1)
  • Sergio Marques: 4% (24-1)
  • Matic Modic: 4% (27-1)

Female Race Participants

  • Martina Dogana: 55% (1-1)
  • Sofie Goos: 38% (2-1)
  • Lucie Reed: 4% (22-1)
  • Simona Krivankova: 2% (52-1)

Ironman Cairns 2017 (June 11th) – Seedings

IMCairnsLogo

IM Cairns closes the Southern hemisphere racing season – as it’s the fourth of the Regional Championships, the field is pretty strong and deep. The first years this race was held as “Challenge Cairns”, then the race organizer was bought by Ironman. It’s been a Regional Championship since 2016.

Update June 7th: Among a few other updates, Denis Chevrot was forced to withdraw – injuries from a crash make racing impossible for him.

Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2011 Chris McCormack (AUS) 08:15:56 Rebekah Keat (AUS) 09:26:31
2012 David Dellow (AUS) 08:15:04 Carrie Lester (AUS) 09:21:00
2013 Luke McKenzie (AUS) 08:17:43 Liz Blatchford (AUS) 09:19:51
2014 Cameron Brown (NZL) 08:20:15 Liz Blatchford (AUS) 09:16:58
2015 Luke McKenzie (AUS) 08:18:01 Liz Blatchford (AUS) 09:11:49
2016 Tim Van Berkel (AUS) 08:15:03 Jodie Cunnama (GBR) 09:06:18

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Tim Van Berkel AUS 00:47:26 04:36:58 02:46:31 08:15:03
2 David Dellow AUS 00:46:34 04:37:59 02:50:13 08:19:13
3 Pete Jacobs AUS 00:46:32 04:35:11 03:02:14 08:28:28

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Jodie Cunnama GBR 00:49:06 04:50:40 03:21:28 09:06:18
2 Linsey Corbin USA 00:57:26 05:08:26 03:02:01 09:12:50
3 Sarah Crowley AUS 00:57:28 05:03:50 03:14:02 09:19:56

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:15:03 Tim Van Berkel 2016-06-12
Swim overall 00:43:48 Clayton Fettell 2011-06-05
Bike overall 04:21:52 Luke McKenzie 2013-06-01
Run overall 02:44:24 Tim Van Berkel 2013-06-01
Total female 09:06:18 Jodie Cunnama 2016-06-12
Swim female 00:49:06 Jodie Cunnama 2016-06-12
Bike female 04:50:40 Jodie Cunnama 2016-06-12
Run female 03:02:01 Linsey Corbin 2016-06-12

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Cairns is 03:59.

Race Adjustments for IM Cairns

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Finishers Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2011 06:26 01:41 03:54 01:36 16 06:26 01:41 03:54 01:36
2012 06:49 -00:44 08:11 -01:50 22 06:37 00:28 06:02 -00:07
2013 02:58 -01:34 08:26 -05:54 16 05:24 -00:12 06:50 -02:03
2014 04:15 -02:18 03:33 02:35 16 of 21 05:07 -00:44 06:01 -00:53
2015 06:14 01:44 04:18 00:00 16 of 19 05:20 -00:14 05:40 -00:43
2016 -02:45 -00:12 03:18 03:15 28 of 36 03:59 -00:14 05:17 -00:03

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Cairns is a P-4000 race. It has a total prize purse of 150.000 US$.

Estimated Time Plan

The following table shows the time plan for the race start and the estimated times for the first athlete in the transition zones or across the finish line. The estimates are based on the start time and my time estimates, these times can change based on how fast or slow the race ends up:

What Est. Racetime Est. Local Time
Male Pro Start  07:35
Female Pro Start  07:36
Age Group Start  07:45
First Male in T1 00:46:04  08:21
First Female in T1 00:54:18  08:30
First Male in T2 05:15:32  12:50
First Female in T2 06:03:40  13:39
Male Winner 08:15:17  15:50
Female Winner 09:18:35  16:54

Cairns is on Australian Eastern Standard Time, 10 hours ahead of UTC, the same time zone as Sydney. Here are the conversions to a few other time zones:

  • – 8 hours: Central Europe (CEST), race starts at 11:35pm on Saturday
  • – 9 hours: United Kingdom (BST), race starts at 10:35pm on Saturday
  • – 14 hours: US East Coast (EDT), race starts at 5:35pm on Saturday
  • – 17 hours: US West Coast (PDT), race starts at 2:35pm on Saturday

Male Race Participants

The strength of the field is 19% of a typical Kona field.

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. T2 Exp. Run Consistency Overall
1 1 Tim Van Berkel AUS 08:15:17 08:24:09 00:47:49 04:34:15 05:27:04 02:48:13 67% +19% -14% (21) 17
2 2 David Dellow AUS 08:17:31 08:24:32 00:47:17 04:32:42 05:24:59 02:52:32 80% +1% -19% (16) 19
3 5 Braden Currie NZL 08:19:00 08:37:41 00:46:35 04:36:45 05:28:20 02:50:40 26% +74% -0% (2) (61)
4 4 Cameron Brown NZL 08:21:29 08:27:12 00:51:10 04:36:25 05:32:35 02:48:54 57% +11% -33% (34) 24
5 11 Callum Millward NZL 08:25:10 08:31:59 00:49:02 04:35:19 05:29:21 02:55:49 55% +0% -45% (7) 37
6 3 Jeff Symonds CAN 08:25:49 08:34:13 00:51:26 04:44:11 05:40:36 02:45:13 65% +0% -35% (9) 46
7 13 Fredrik Croneborg SWE 08:27:08 08:34:05 00:51:33 04:35:44 05:32:17 02:54:51 68% +22% -10% (12) 43
8 16 Mark Bowstead NZL 08:28:20 08:40:55 00:48:44 04:35:07 05:28:51 02:59:29 100% +0% -0% (2) (74)
9 6 Jens Petersen-Bach DEN 08:28:32 08:39:30 00:50:56 04:40:53 05:36:49 02:51:43 54% +0% -46% (18) 67
10 14 Denis Chevrot FRA 08:30:14 08:34:11 00:47:23 04:40:27 05:32:50 02:57:24 65% +6% -29% (11) 45
11 10 Joe Gambles AUS 08:30:42 08:34:58 00:49:36 04:35:51 05:30:28 03:00:14 39% +12% -49% (10) 50
12 20 Pedro Gomes POR 08:33:11 08:40:25 00:52:30 04:39:42 05:37:13 02:55:58 58% +1% -41% (26) 71
13 15 Michael Fox AUS 08:33:22 08:42:11 00:46:56 04:41:03 05:33:00 03:00:22 78% +22% -0% (4) 77
14 9 Clayton Fettell AUS 08:34:26 08:41:28 00:46:04 04:31:51 05:22:54 03:11:32 52% +11% -36% (11) 76
15 27 Daniil Sapunov UKR 08:38:08 08:52:25 00:48:55 04:48:55 05:42:50 02:55:18 72% +28% -0% (4) 107
16 22 Ritchie Nicholls GBR 08:38:15 08:55:11 00:51:31 04:50:17 05:46:49 02:51:26 35% +0% -65% (7) 120
17 30 Jonathan Shearon USA 08:42:28 08:51:13 00:54:14 04:37:48 05:37:02 03:05:26 63% +9% -28% (17) 101
18 23 Courtney Ogden AUS 08:42:30 08:45:09 00:51:11 04:41:22 05:37:33 03:04:57 63% +6% -31% (21) 85
19 26 Michael Ruenz GER 08:42:55 08:51:13 00:56:35 04:46:10 05:47:45 02:55:10 71% +0% -29% (9) 101
20 17 Giles Clayton AUS 08:43:09 09:00:18 00:48:55 04:44:06 05:38:01 03:05:08 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (145)
21 35 Thiago Vinhal BRA 08:43:10 08:57:06 00:49:54 04:49:27 05:44:21 02:58:49 58% +34% -8% (13) 128
22 19 Casey Munro AUS 08:43:25 09:14:04 00:47:20 04:36:52 05:29:12 03:14:13 23% +0% -77% (6) (180)
23 8 Luke Bell AUS 08:44:30 08:46:00 00:48:58 04:36:25 05:30:23 03:14:07 23% +9% -68% (33) 91
24 33 Kaito Tohara JPN 08:45:12 08:57:39 00:53:53 04:51:06 05:49:59 02:55:13 27% +63% -10% (9) 134
25 18 Simon Cochrane NZL 08:46:21 08:58:07 00:50:38 04:45:31 05:41:09 03:05:12 68% +17% -14% (19) 135
26 34 Cameron Wurf AUS 08:47:26 08:57:29 00:49:52 04:20:40 05:15:32 03:31:54 27% +73% -0% (3) 130
27 12 Levi Maxwell AUS 08:49:27 09:04:50 00:54:19 04:50:40 05:50:00 02:59:27 48% +52% -0% (2) (158)
28 7 Josh Amberger AUS 08:51:30 09:08:57 00:48:14 04:32:59 05:26:14 03:25:16 62% +0% -38% (2) (167)
29 25 Carl Read NZL 08:59:10 09:17:32 00:53:52 04:57:39 05:56:31 03:02:39 60% +6% -34% (12) 192
30 32 Leigh Stabryla AUS 09:12:36 09:37:53 00:51:50 05:12:28 06:09:18 03:03:18 31% +0% -69% (3) (246)
31 24 Ryan Palazzi AUS 09:27:01 09:52:57 00:50:45 04:51:08 05:46:53 03:40:08 45% +0% -55% (2) (269)
32 21 Samuel Murphy AUS 09:28:16 09:56:54 00:56:57 05:06:09 06:08:07 03:20:09 28% +0% -72% (3) (276)
33 29 Nathan Shearer AUS 09:34:02 09:52:52 00:57:07 05:11:24 06:13:30 03:20:32 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (269)
28 Peter Schokman AUS n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
31 Paul Speed AUS n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)

Female Race Participants

The strength of the field is 18% of a typical Kona field.

Linsey Corbin is on the official start list, but as she has raced IM Brasil and secured enough points to qualify for Kona, I’d be very surprised to see her race in Cairns and have left her out of my race predictions. (June 6th: She has confirmed that she won’t be racing in Cairns.) Kirsty Jahn is still recovering from a stress fracture and won’t be racing.

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. T2 Exp. Run Consistency Overall
57 Linsey Corbin USA   09:20:53         92% +8% -0% (22) 14
1 40 Sarah Piampiano USA 09:18:35 09:23:34 01:02:54 05:03:03 06:10:57 03:07:38 78% +15% -7% (17) 17
2 41 Sarah Crowley AUS 09:20:35 09:33:08 00:57:05 05:01:35 06:03:40 03:16:55 72% +28% -0% (4) 34
3 45 Jennie Hansen USA 09:35:53 09:45:01 01:04:46 05:15:17 06:25:03 03:10:50 71% +0% -29% (10) (54)
4 43 Kristin Moeller GER 09:36:31 09:41:43 01:03:28 05:23:59 06:32:26 03:04:05 73% +6% -21% (23) 48
5 50 Kirsty Jahn CAN 09:37:19 10:02:13 00:59:32 05:21:58 06:26:31 03:10:48 32% +0% -68% (2) (78)
6 44 Dimity-Lee Duke AUS 09:39:49 09:48:13 01:00:35 05:13:57 06:19:32 03:20:17 69% +14% -17% (12) 57
7 42 Tine Holst DEN 09:43:26 09:55:15 01:04:47 05:13:26 06:23:12 03:20:14 71% +11% -18% (14) 70
8 47 Michelle Gailey AUS 09:47:17 09:52:56 00:56:25 05:21:42 06:23:07 03:24:10 84% +0% -16% (11) 66
9 46 Katharina Grohmann GER 09:49:36 10:00:43 01:11:21 05:16:30 06:32:51 03:16:45 85% +15% -0% (15) 73
10 55 Karen Thibodeau CAN 09:51:31 10:03:18 00:54:18 05:24:32 06:23:49 03:27:42 66% +0% -34% (13) 80
11 53 Diane Luethi SUI 09:55:17 10:04:25 00:56:55 05:20:50 06:22:45 03:32:32 100% +0% -0% (3) 87
12 51 Jenny Fletcher CAN 10:01:23 10:15:27 00:58:08 05:23:16 06:26:25 03:34:58 100% +0% -0% (2) (108)
13 48 Sarah Graves USA 10:06:41 10:15:18 01:12:54 05:24:34 06:42:27 03:24:14 100% +0% -0% (5) (108)
14 52 Jessica Mitchell AUS 10:09:22 10:23:39 01:04:25 05:27:13 06:36:38 03:32:44 56% +44% -0% (3) 118
15 54 Marina Jurjevic AUS 10:12:37 10:24:52 01:07:33 05:20:23 06:32:55 03:39:42 61% +0% -39% (7) 123
16 56 Tamsyn Hayes NZL 10:12:37 10:25:39 01:02:03 05:20:00 06:27:03 03:45:34 51% +5% -44% (14) 125
17 49 Alison Fitch AUS 10:29:42 10:35:09 00:56:28 05:40:07 06:41:34 03:48:08 3% +0% -97% (10) 142

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

  • Tim Van Berkel: 45% (1-1)
  • David Dellow: 21% (4-1)
  • Braden Currie: 12% (7-1)
  • Fredrik Croneborg: 10% (9-1)
  • Cameron Brown: 8% (12-1)
  • Jeff Symonds: 2% (62-1)

Female Race Participants

  • Sarah Piampiano: 55% (1-1)
  • Sarah Crowley: 34% (2-1)
  • Jennie Hansen: 4% (24-1)
  • Kristin Moeller: 3% (34-1)
  • Tine Holst: 2% (56-1)

Kona Qualifying Situation

As IM Cairns is a Regional Championship and there are Automatic Qualifier spots for the winners, every participant has a chance to qualify for Kona. Also the P-4000 race has a lot of KPR points so there are a lot of athletes that should be able to qualify even without winning the race. Here are the minimum finishes for most of the participants.

Male Race Participants

The male cutoff for July is projected to be around 3.500 points. Thiago Vinhal is very close to qualifying, as he just raced IM Brasil he is unlikely to start IM Cairns as well.

  • 10th or better (at least 685 points): Kaito Tohara
  • 9th (855 points) or better: Fredrik Croneborg, Braden Currie
  • 8th (1070 points) or better: David Dellow
  • 6th (1670 points) or better: Denis Chevrot, Daniil Sapunov, Cam Brown
  • 5th (2090 points) or better: Clayton Fettel, Michael Fox, Jeff Symonds, Josh Amberger, Mark Bowstead, Joe Gambles, Tim Berkel
  • 4th (2455 points) or better: Callum Millward
  • 3rd (2890 points) or better: Jens Petersen-Bach, Michael Ruenz

Female Race Participants

The female cutoff is likely to be around 4.300 points. Sarah Piampiano is already safe for Kona (as is Linsey Corbin who is unlikely to race).

  • 9th (855 points) or better: Sarah Crowley
  • 8th (1070 points) or better: Katharina Grohmann
  • 4th (2455 points) or better: Jessica Mitchell, Tine Holst, Dimity-Lee Duke, Michelle Gailey
  • 3rd (2890 points) or better: Kristin Möller

Male Race Preview

As is typical for a Regional Championship race, there are a lot of contenders for the title and the included Automatic Qualifier slot – too many to mention! With the participants in the field, it also seems clear that the race will be decided pretty late on the run course. Super-swimmer (and swim course record holder) Clayton Fettell is expected to lead the race in T1 and also ride strong. Cameron Wurf will probably be about 4 minutes back after the swim, but he should be able to overtake all the race favorites within the first hour on the bike and take the lead. By T2, the gap to the rest of the field could grow to about seven minutes. Also watch out for Cameron to chase the bike course record (currently 4:21:52 by Luke McKenzie from 2013). But for both Clayton and Cameron, these will have been been their chances to lead the race and the better runners will fight for the win.

The athlete with the best chances is Tim Berkel. In 2016 Tim was very good in the Regional Championships, finishing second in South Africa and winning Cairns. In Kona however, he struggled to stay with the bike group and finished in a disappointing 19th place. He’s raced quite a bit in 70.3s during the Australian summer – with solid results including a win in Vietnam, his last 70.3 before Cairns. In order to win IM Cairns, Tim will have to run at least sub-2:50 – last year he ran a 2:46, so that’s well within his reach on a good day.

Tim’s biggest competitor could be David Dellow. David is coming off a hard-fought win at IM Australia where he battled Tim Reed on the run. That race was just five weeks before Cairns, hopefully giving David enough time to recover for another good race. His main goal is probably to secure enough points for Kona qualifying, an eighth place should be enough for him.

Another athlete that just needs one more solid race to qualify for Kona is New Zealander Braden Currie. Braden was the winner of IM New Zealand and 70.3 Taupo. He’s still a relative newbie to IM racing and is therefore hard to predict. It’ll also be interesting to see how he performs when he is racing in close proximity with a number of other competitors. But if he races anywhere close to the level he showed at New Zealand, he’ll be a very solid contender for at least a podium finish.

Two more athletes from New Zealand will work hard for a podium spot. Cameron Brown is one of the most consistent athletes and even at 44 years of age is still going strong. He likes to be racing closer to home, here’s an interesting stat: The last time he started an Ironman-distance race in Australia or New Zealand and did not finish on the podium was in his first Ironman race in 1997! Callum Millward has put up a great fight with Cam at IM New Zealand in 2016, but a niggle has made it hard for him to repeat that type of performance. Callum needs a big result (fourth or better) to qualify for Kona.

Jeff Symonds was the winner of the last Regional Championships contested in Melbourne in 2015. Last year he broke his elbow just a few days before IM Texas and had to use most of 2016 to properly recover from it. A second place at IM Chattanooga in the fall put him in a good position to qualify for Kona, but he still needs a Top 5 finish in Cairns. It would be cool to see him run through the field with Cam Brown.

Female Race Preview

While there is a large number of male athletes with winning chances, it seems pretty clear that Sarah is going to win the female race. But which one?

My top pick is Sarah Piampiano. After her seventh place in Kona and a third place at Western Australia in her first sub-9 finish, Sarah is already safe for Kona. She has been able to focus on IM Cairns as her first 2017 highlight race. She’s been working on all three legs and would love to go sub-x all day: Sub-1 in the swim, sub-5 on the bike and sub-3 on the run. Each of these would be a great result as my predictions have her slightly above these thresholds.

The other Sarah competing for the title is Sarah Crowley. Sarah C should be slightly faster than Sarah P in the swim and on the bike, based on previous results I see her leading the race by about seven minutes in T2 (a difference Sarah P won’t like to grow quite as large). Sarah P has always been great at making up time on the run, but predicting how much time she can make up to Sarah C is very hard as both athletes are still improving. Sarah C has improved her Cairns run split from by six minutes from 2015 to 2016, Sarah P has run close to 3 hours for a number of times. The projections show Sarah P to take the lead less than 10k from the finish and win by two minutes – the actual result will depend on who has the better form on race day.

The race behind the two Sarahs also promises to be exciting as well – there are a lot of athletes with very close capabilities. Jennie Hansen returns to IM racing after dealing with injuries for almost three years. She has won IM Lake Placid in 2013, but it’s hard to predict how she’ll be able to race in 2017. Kristin Möller has already raced two other Regional Championships (a DNF in South Africa and an 11th in Brasil), she’s looking for a podium finish to qualify for Kona. Dimity-Lee Duke has qualified for Kona in the last two years, she has always raced well close to home and seems to me the likeliest athlete to show a good performance for a podium finish. Tine Holst has ended her title-defense at IM Lanzarote to save energy for a qualifying effort at IM Cairns. After a long break, Michelle Gailey returned to IM racing with a second place at IM Australia just five weeks before Cairns – hopefully she’s recovered well for another good race.

Ironman Brasil 2017 – Analyzing Results

Race Conditions

As usual, the winning times in Brasil have been very fast. But while the top three women have gone sub-9 (and and the next three were less than two minutes above 9 hours), only the male winner Tim Don went sub-8. But what a sub-8 time it was! Tim Don’s 7:40:23 is the second fastest time ever on the full Ironman distance.

Looking at the averages, this year’s race in Florianopolis (adjustment of 25:40) was a bit faster than typical (course rating of 22:03). This year both the swim and the run were quicker than normal. The bike was pretty normal – with the exception of Tim Don’s bike split of 4:06:56 (new bike course record, improving on Marino Vanhoenacker’s 4:11:23 from 2015). Of course Tim also posted a new overall course record, as did female winner Susie Cheetham. Susie’s 8:52:00 improved on Liz Lyles’ 8:54 from last year.

Male Race Results

The swim resulted in a pretty big group leaving T1, but as soon as Tim Don was on the bike, he took control of the race. He was putting four minutes into the rest of the field within 30k, the gap was 10 minutes after 90k and grew to more than 20 minutes in T2. It seems that being in the lead provides some extra power in Brazil (possibly from the lead moto?), we’ve seen a race similar development last year when Brent gapped the rest of the field on the bike. I don’t want to take away from Tim’s race (his run split proved he was the strongest on race day), but the way the race unfolded raises serious questions. Ironman needs to look into them and improve the fairness of the race for next year in order to provide an environment that is in line with Brasil’s Regional Championship status. After Tim’s massive bike split there was some doubt whether he might have overpriced, but he also posted the fast run of the day, winning the race with a gap of 25 minutes.

Second place went to Kyle Buckingham who was only in the second bigger bike group. He had the second best run and was able to overtake everyone but Tim, securing second place by just one minute. The next four spots went to Brazilians: Igor Amorelli had a very balanced race taking third place, Reinaldo Colucci was in the Top 3 for most of the day but ended up in fourth, while Thiago Vinhal and Luis Ohde had solid days to finish fifth and sixth.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to exp. Prize Money KPR Points
1 Tim Don GBR 00:44:16 04:06:56 02:44:46 07:40:23 -25:22 US$ 30,000 4000
2 Kyle Buckingham ZAF 00:47:12 04:28:48 02:45:18 08:05:43 -04:55 US$ 15,000 3400
3 Igor Amorelli BRA 00:44:23 04:27:20 02:51:00 08:06:58 -07:04 US$ 8,000 2890
4 Reinaldo Colucci BRA 00:44:22 04:26:58 02:53:58 08:10:04 -19:33 US$ 6,500 2455
5 Thiago Vinhal BRA 00:45:44 04:30:08 02:50:35 08:11:46 -19:39 US$ 5,000 2090
6 Luis Henrique Ohde BRA 00:46:18 04:30:15 02:51:29 08:12:45 -06:38 US$ 3,500 1670
7 Patrick Evoe USA 00:51:07 04:26:30 02:54:04 08:16:26 -15:59 US$ 2,500 1335
8 Mario De Elias ARG 00:48:51 04:37:40 02:48:05 08:19:17 -05:58 US$ 2,000 1070
9 Fellipe Santos BRA 00:44:27 04:38:05 02:55:49 08:23:40 -18:14 US$ 1,500 855
10 Philipp Koutny SUI 00:50:58 04:35:21 02:56:00 08:27:27 01:17 US$ 1,000 685
11 Frank Silvestrin BRA 00:47:16 04:39:24 03:01:38 08:32:56 05:56 515
12 Felipe De Oliveira Manente BRA 00:51:05 04:44:47 03:06:36 08:48:53 -11:49 385
13 Luiz Francisco Paiva Ferreira BRA 00:44:12 04:39:49 03:27:28 08:56:45 -18:03 290
14 Vinicius Canhedo BRA 00:47:36 04:44:32 03:19:05 08:56:45 n/a 215
15 Andreas Raelert GER 00:44:30 04:27:16 03:45:59 09:02:20 1:03:24 160
16 Harry Wiltshire GBR 00:44:14 05:13:51 03:01:50 09:05:05 39:34 120
17 Rodrigo Sanchez ARG 00:55:55 05:18:38 03:02:55 09:25:31 n/a 90
18 Christian Carletto ARG 00:53:18 04:56:24 03:40:06 09:36:43 18:35 70
19 Eduardo Diaz ARG 00:56:08 05:19:17 03:39:37 10:03:06 n/a 50
20 Diego Vasquez ECU 00:57:20 04:48:10 05:27:30 11:21:40 n/a 40
Brent McMahon CAN 00:47:04 04:29:24 DNF
Paul Matthews AUS 00:44:21 04:32:27 DNF
Pedro Gomes POR 00:48:54 04:37:40 DNF
Barrett Brandon USA 00:44:27 DNF
Matt Chrabot USA 00:46:35 DNF
Eneko Llanos ESP 00:47:40 DNF
Fabio Carvalho BRA 00:48:49 DNF
Bruno Matheus BRA 00:48:59 DNF
Josef Svoboda CZE 01:07:21 DNF

Female Race Results

While Tim was leading the race pretty much from start to finish and building his lead all day, there were a lot more position changes in the female race. As expected Haley Chura was the T1 leader, after the swim there weren’t many athletes close to each other. Susie Cheetham was just two and a half minutes back, and it took even Susie 90k to make up the gap to Haley. Behind them there formed a larger group which was lead for a long time by Mareen Hufe, taking  a large number of females along to sub-5-hour bike splits. Mareen was able to break away from the others only in the last 30k of the bike, so in T2 she was three minutes behind Haley and Susie, having posted the fastest bike split of the day.

On the run Haley wasn’t quite ready to accept that Susie was the stronger runner, but in the end Susie’s 3:02 marathon proved to be too strong for Haley and the rest of the field. Susie worked hard in the last part  to be sure she’d go sub-9, she posted a new course record and won the race with a gap of more than five minutes. Behind her there were a few last minute changes: Second place went to Sonja Tajsich (running exactly the same split as Susie) who had the best run of women in the bike chase group. She was able to beat Haley (who finished third) by just one minute, Sonja and and Haley also went sub-9. Fourth place went to Gurutze Frades by 13 seconds over Linsey Corbin who had to sit out a bike penalty in T2. Linsey passed Mareen late on the run, Mareen ended up just 31 seconds behind Linsey in sixth place. The best marathon of the day – a 2:58 – was run by Kristin Moeller, but she had lost too much time on the bike to finish better than 11th.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to exp. Prize Money KPR Points
1 Susie Cheetham GBR 00:50:42 04:53:02 03:02:41 08:52:00 03:01 US$ 30,000 4000
2 Sonja Tajsich GER 00:55:42 04:53:48 03:02:41 08:57:36 -09:53 US$ 15,000 3400
3 Haley Chura USA 00:48:09 04:55:18 03:09:30 08:58:45 -09:30 US$ 8,000 2890
4 Gurutze Frades Larralde ESP 00:55:38 04:53:20 03:06:42 09:01:00 -18:22 US$ 6,500 2455
5 Linsey Corbin USA 00:54:41 04:54:12 03:01:45 09:01:13 07:59 US$ 5,000 2090
6 Mareen Hufe GER 00:55:31 04:51:16 03:09:15 09:01:44 -02:34 US$ 3,500 1670
7 Annah Watkinson ZAF 00:55:35 04:53:44 03:10:04 09:04:59 -07:54 US$ 2,500 1335
8 Pamela Tastets CHI 00:53:08 04:55:51 03:12:57 09:07:56 -04:48 US$ 2,000 1070
9 Elisabeth Gruber AUT 00:55:33 05:04:39 03:00:38 09:08:16 02:53 US$ 1,500 855
10 Magali Tisseyre CAN 00:50:15 04:58:40 03:14:12 09:09:49 n/a US$ 1,000 685
11 Kristin Moeller GER 00:55:33 05:12:47 02:58:42 09:12:43 -03:40 515
12 Bruna Mahn BRA 00:54:42 05:14:51 03:12:16 09:27:26 -18:09 385
13 Nicole Valentine USA 00:55:32 05:09:51 03:19:40 09:30:37 -12:25 290
14 Mariana Andrade BRA 00:55:13 05:00:16 04:02:48 10:03:52 12:16 215
15 Erika Simon ARG 00:59:14 05:30:17 03:33:44 10:10:53 n/a 160
Brooke Brown CAN 00:58:17 05:12:10 DNF
Celine Schaerer SUI 00:49:11 DNF
Carolin Lehrieder GER 00:53:04 DNF

Kona Qualifying Implications

Here’s the notable changes in Kona Qualifying on the male side (projected July cutoff 3.500 points):

  • Automatic Qualifier: Tim Don
  • Safe for a July slot: Kyle Buckingham (6.450), Igor Amorelli (3.933)
  • On the Bubble (might be enough, but maybe not): Thiago Vinhal (3.725), Reinaldo Colucci (3.390)
  • Close (but more points needed): Patrick Evoe (3.163)

On the female side (projected cutoff 4.300 points):

  • Automatic Qualifier: Susie Cheetham
  • Safe for a July slot: Mareen Hufe (5.020), Gurutze Frades (4.915), Linsey Corbin (4,725)
  • On the Bubble (might be enough, but maybe not): Haley Chura (4.180)
  • Close (but more points needed): Sonja Tajsich (3.400), Lisi Gruber (3.175)

Ironman Germany 2017 (July 9th) – Entry Lists

The “European Championships” is the last of the five Regional Championships. It is the last chance for athletes to “score big points” for Kona, so the field is usually very deep. You can also expect quite a few changes in the final weeks, as a lot of athletes enter “just in case” or join the field as a last minute decision.

Update June 7th: Added Elisabeth Gruber, Rachel Joyce, Diana Riesler, Sonja Tajsich, and Pamela Tastets for the WPROs and Mark Bowstead, Ivan Caceres Lopez, Alberto Casadei, Michal Ivanco, Patrick Lange, Giulio Molinari, Marek Nemcik, Andreas Raelert, Youri Severin, Ivan Tutukin and Lukasz Wojt for the MPROs.

Update June 14th: Added Lucy Charles, Olga Kowalska, Andi Boecherer, James Cunnama, Markus Fachbach, David Jilek, Alfred Rahm, and Peter Seidel.

Male Race Participants

Bib Name Nation KPR points KPR races
1 Sebastian Kienle GER 10985 1+2 (7200/1085)
2 Andi Boecherer GER 5890 1+1
3 Patrick Lange GER 6480 1+0
4 Andreas Raelert GER 160 1+0
5 Cyril Viennot FRA 2420 2+1
6 Bas Diederen NED 730 1+1
7 Michael Raelert GER 835 0+2 (0/400)
8 Horst Reichel GER 25 1+1
9 Mike Schifferle SUI 755 3+0 (120/0)
10 Giulio Molinari ITA 1790 2+0
11 Patrik Nilsson SWE 2180 1+1
13 Marko Albert EST 3080 2+1
14 Peru Alfaro ESP 960 1+0
15 Michael Patrick Alonso Mckernan ESP    
16 Clemente Alonso McKernan ESP    
17 Lucas Amirault FRA 144 0+2 (0/9)
18 Nick Baldwin SEY 2095 2+2 (405/90)
19 Rob Bobbaers BEL    
20 Mark Bowstead NZL 2640 2+2 (720/415)
21 Ivan Caceres Lopez ESP    
22 Alberto Casadei ITA 230 1+0
24 Andres Darricau ARG 57 0+2 (0/7)
26 Trevor Delsaut FRA 1161 2+2 (170/1)
27 Sean Donnelly GER 10 0+1
28 Olivier Esser BEL 65 1+1
29 Philip Graves GBR 1605 2+0
30 Esben Hovgaard DEN 1135 2+1
31 Michal Ivanco SVK 5 0+1
32 Alfonso Jimenez Hernandez ESP    
33 Philipp Koutny SUI 1115 3+1 (120/140)
34 Frederic Limousin FRA 110 0+2 (0/45)
36 Carlos Lopez Diaz ESP 2000 1+0
37 Charles Martin FRA 67 0+2 (0/2)
38 Matic Modic SLO 445 1+1
39 Marek Nemcik SVK 17 3+1 (1/3)
40 Ritchie Nicholls GBR 720 2+2 (170/45)
41 Yuri Novikau BLR    
42 Lukas Polan CZE 145 0+2 (0/5)
43 Ivan Risti ITA 1280 1+0
44 Michael Ruenz GER 1190 2+1
45 Daniil Sapunov UKR 2710 3+1 (685/345)
46 Frederic Schaffner FRA    
47 Evert Scheltinga NED 570 1+1
48 Youri Severin NED 3 1+0
49 Yu Shinozaki JPN 15 0+1
50 Ohad Sinai ISR 57 1+2 (2/5)
51 Erik-Simon Strijk NED 180 1+1
52 Kevin Thewes GER 1 1+0
53 Xavier Torrades ESP 30 1+0
55 Thiago Vinhal BRA 3740 2+1
56 Lukasz Wojt POL 100 0+1
57 Ivan Tutukin RUS 2240 1+2 (1600/100)
58 Peter Seidel GER 7 0+1
59 James Cunnama ZAF 2065 2+2 (340/400)
60 Markus Fachbach GER 1880 1+1
61 David Jilek CZE 15 0+1
62 Alfred Rahm GER 10 1+0

Female Race Participants

Bib Name Nation KPR points KPR races
101 Anja Beranek GER 5835 1+0
102 Natascha Schmitt GER 1125 1+2 (540/255)
103 Sarah Crowley AUS 7590 2+2 (1375/715)
104 Sonja Tajsich GER 3400 1+0
105 Corinne Abraham GBR 2675 2+1
106 Rachel Joyce GBR 3140 1+2 (2000/220)
107 Angela Naeth CAN 750 0+1
108 Franziska Bossow GER    
109 Camille Deligny FRA 0 0+0
110 Annabel Diawuoh GER 340 1+1
111 Dimity-Lee Duke AUS 4135 2+2 (880/400)
112 Katharina Grohmann GER 4470 3+1 (960/140)
113 Helena Herrero Gomez ESP 390 1+1
114 Pleuni Hooijman NED 30 0+1
115 Annett Jalowi GER    
116 Katja Konschak GER 2125 2+1
117 Shiao-yu Li TWN 2550 3+1 (90/320)
118 Elizabeth Lyles USA 4155 2+2 (340/540)
119 Diana Riesler GER 2785 1+1
120 Lina-Kristin Schink GER 865 3+0 (230/0)
121 Pamela Tastets CHI 2555 2+2 (960/180)
122 Magali Tisseyre CAN 1850 1+1
123 Alexandra Tondeur BEL 2140 2+1
124 Elisabeth Gruber AUT 3175 3+0 (720/0)
125 Lucy Charles GBR 2115 1+1
126 Olga Kowalska POL 115 0+1

TriTrivia for IM Brasil

Here are a few “fun questions” about the top female and male contenders for IM Brasil. Can you guess which athletes I’m referring to? (If you need some help, the full Pro startlist can be found here. The solutions are posted at the bottom.)

  1. He/she finished second at IM South Africa with a wire in the arm as a pin for a broken elbow.
  2. He/she dropped the Kona GPS tracker in a porta-loo.
  3. He/she strained a muscle on the bike portion of IM Austria, but still ran a marathon PR.
  4. He/she had a Kona meltdown of PNF proportions .. running in 8th place at 37k, eventually finishing 21st.
  5. He/she started Kona with what turned out to be a broken fibula – a DNF probably prevented more severe damage.
  6. He/she tore a ligament in the hand, requiring a three week break from swimming and missing some early 2017 races.
  7. After Kona last year, he/she added a new member to the family .. a cute puppy.

If you need some hints, check out my previews for the male and female races, the athletes that “match” the facts above are (in alphabetical order):

  1. Susie Cheetham
  2. Haley Chura
  3. Linsey Corbin
  4. Tim Don
  5. Mareen Hufe
  6. Brent McMahon
  7. Andreas Raelert

Here are the matches: 1A 2D 3G 4E 5B 6F 7C

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