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Ironman Taiwan 2016 (Oct 2nd) – Predictions

IMTaiwan

Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2015 Domenico Passuello (ITA) 08:25:54 Dede Griesbauer (USA) 09:20:23

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Domenico Passuello ITA 00:52:25 04:32:16 02:55:52 08:25:54
2 Fredrik Croneborg SWE 00:50:35 04:42:57 02:49:48 08:28:37
3 Patrick Evoe USA 00:55:41 04:42:27 02:57:06 08:40:58

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Dede Griesbauer USA 00:51:10 05:05:19 03:17:16 09:20:23
2 Dimity-Lee Duke AUS 00:58:08 05:16:14 03:10:17 09:31:31
3 Kim Schwabenbauer USA 01:00:08 05:15:41 03:15:53 09:38:35

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:25:54 Domenico Passuello 2015-04-12
Swim overall 00:50:35 Rod De Kanel 2015-04-12
Swim overall 00:50:35 Fredrik Croneborg 2015-04-12
Bike overall 04:32:16 Domenico Passuello 2015-04-12
Run overall 02:49:48 Fredrik Croneborg 2015-04-12
Total female 09:20:23 Dede Griesbauer 2015-04-12
Swim female 00:51:06 Samantha Morrison 2015-04-12
Bike female 05:05:19 Dede Griesbauer 2015-04-12
Run female 03:10:17 Dimity-Lee Duke 2015-04-12

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Taiwan is 09:19.

Race Adjustments for IM Taiwan

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Finishers Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2015 09:19 01:16 04:20 01:34 24 of 27 09:19 01:16 04:20 01:34

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Taiwan is a P-2000 race. It has a total prize purse of 25.000 US$.

Male Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Consistency Overall
1 22 Daniel Fontana ITA 08:33:15 08:49:07 00:47:53 04:40:57 02:59:25 40% +0% -60% (13) (89)
2 4 Gudmund Snilstveit NOR 08:44:05 09:10:21 00:55:22 04:37:17 03:06:26 25% +12% -63% (9) (167)
3 5 Simon Cochrane NZL 08:45:43 09:03:32 00:49:21 04:47:09 03:04:13 67% +29% -5% (16) 138
4 1 Patrick Evoe USA 08:47:37 08:57:33 00:54:44 04:42:29 03:05:23 89% +4% -7% (23) 120
5 6 Tohara Kaito JPN 08:48:03 09:06:06 00:51:53 04:52:31 02:58:39 34% +50% -15% (7) 154
6 7 Patrick Jaberg SUI 08:48:05 09:03:38 00:52:17 04:44:25 03:06:22 97% +0% -3% (17) 140
7 16 Adam Gordon AUS 08:51:05 09:11:40 00:53:55 04:47:47 03:04:23 5% +53% -41% (5) 169
8 15 Balazs Csoke HUN 08:53:18 09:06:38 00:46:39 04:47:55 03:13:44 54% +7% -39% (24) 155
9 8 Simon Billeau FRA 08:53:47 09:03:29 00:53:11 04:39:51 03:15:45 43% +0% -57% (17) 137
10 10 Andreas Niedrig GER 08:54:07 09:07:05 00:46:34 04:36:01 03:26:31 47% +39% -14% (13) 156
11 14 Jordan Bryden CAN 08:55:52 09:30:23 00:48:20 04:52:21 03:10:11 16% +70% -14% (7) 221
12 2 Guy Crawford NZL 08:57:10 09:14:38 00:47:42 04:39:19 03:25:10 27% +37% -36% (12) 181
13 12 AJ Baucco USA 08:58:51 09:08:12 00:51:12 04:51:31 03:11:09 64% +0% -36% (7) (157)
14 3 Antony Costes FRA 08:59:42 09:30:49 00:47:40 04:38:51 03:28:10 30% +0% -70% (3) (223)
15 21 Olivier Godart LUX 09:07:01 09:24:55 00:54:22 04:57:09 03:10:31 31% +0% -69% (3) (209)
16 17 Allister Caird AUS 09:12:31 09:33:31 00:55:10 04:57:45 03:14:36 53% +0% -47% (2) (227)
17 9 Yu Shinozaki JPN 09:19:09 10:06:06 00:54:47 04:47:50 03:31:31 14% +22% -64% (10) 275
18 11 Deak Zsombor ROM 09:26:21 09:48:04 00:58:23 05:07:21 03:15:37 100% +0% -0% (2) (256)
19 20 Eneko Elosegui ESP 09:27:56 09:41:45 00:57:21 04:55:03 03:30:32 62% +12% -25% (16) 246
20 13 Gerhard De Bruin ZAF 09:43:35 09:53:40 00:54:27 05:04:24 03:39:45 100% +0% -0% (4) 263
18 Levi Maxwell AUS n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
19 Derek Cross AUS n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Consistency Overall
1 32 Danielle Mack USA 09:24:40 09:51:26 01:01:00 05:06:48 03:11:53 41% +14% -45% (6) (67)
2 31 Shiao-yu Li TWN 09:44:54 09:58:00 01:04:28 05:18:54 03:16:33 47% +36% -17% (11) 83
3 36 Kathryn Haesner NZL 09:45:39 10:31:04 00:55:39 05:23:06 03:21:54 25% +36% -39% (3) (142)
4 34 Katharina Grohmann GER 09:49:35 10:03:27 01:09:17 05:19:06 03:16:12 100% +0% -0% (13) 93
5 33 Keiko Tanaka JPN 09:50:13 10:04:10 00:53:10 05:23:49 03:28:14 48% +0% -52% (15) 95
6 35 Emi Sakai JPN 10:11:01 10:24:22 01:04:56 05:20:25 03:40:39 69% +6% -25% (9) (131)
7 39 Jana Candrova CZE 10:23:36 10:37:33 01:05:11 05:32:27 03:40:58 80% +2% -18% (16) 150
8 38 Alison Fitch AUS 10:25:00 10:17:13 00:54:58 05:39:45 03:45:17 5% +0% -95% (9) 117
9 37 Stef Puszka AUS 10:30:49 10:54:47 01:03:16 05:45:56 03:36:37 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (157)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

  • Simon Cochrane: 28% (3-1)
  • Daniel Fontana: 26% (3-1)
  • Patrick Jaberg: 9% (10-1)
  • Patrick Evoe: 9% (11-1)
  • Andreas Niedrig: 6% (16-1)
  • Tohara Kaito: 6% (16-1)
  • Adam Gordon: 5% (18-1)
  • Gudmund Snilstveit: 5% (20-1)
  • Jordan Bryden: 4% (25-1)

Female Race Participants

  • Danielle Mack: 43% (1-1)
  • Shiao-yu Li: 25% (3-1)
  • Katharina Grohmann: 14% (6-1)
  • Keiko Tanaka: 11% (8-1)
  • Kathryn Haesner: 7% (13-1)

Ironman Barcelona 2016 (Oct 2nd) – Predictions

IMBarcelona

Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2014 Clemente Alonso McKernan (ESP) 08:04:13 Eva Wutti (AUT) 08:49:21
2015 David Plese (SLO) 08:02:20 Yvonne Van Vlerken (NED) 08:46:44

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 David Plese SLO 00:50:39 04:25:28 02:43:38 08:02:20
2 Anton Blokhin UKR 00:47:45 04:19:06 02:56:18 08:05:50
3 Per Bittner GER 00:47:44 04:19:28 02:56:37 08:06:23

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Yvonne Van Vlerken NED 00:59:57 04:41:28 03:02:48 08:46:44
2 Kaisa Lehtonen FIN 00:53:22 04:46:41 03:05:34 08:48:40
3 Elisabeth Gruber AUT 01:00:19 04:48:34 03:02:12 08:54:03

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:02:20 David Plese 2015-10-04
Swim overall 00:47:32 Oliver Simon 2015-10-04
Bike overall 04:17:11 Bryan McCrystal 2015-10-04
Run overall 02:43:38 David Plese 2015-10-04
Total female 08:46:44 Yvonne Van Vlerken 2015-10-04
Swim female 00:53:22 Kaisa Lehtonen 2015-10-04
Bike female 04:41:28 Yvonne Van Vlerken 2015-10-04
Run female 03:02:12 Elisabeth Gruber 2015-10-04

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Barcelona is 27:16.

Race Adjustments for IM Barcelona

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Finishers Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2014 19:27 -02:15 18:17 04:17 47 of 70 19:27 -02:15 18:17 04:17
2015 35:06 00:16 29:45 07:27 48 of 65 27:16 -00:59 24:01 05:52

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Barcelona is a P-2000 race. It has a total prize purse of 50.000 US$.

Male Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Consistency Overall
1 1 Patrik Nilsson SWE 07:49:10 08:24:07 00:49:42 04:11:16 02:43:11 6% +65% -29% (7) 10
2 2 Bas Diederen NED 08:02:31 08:27:24 00:48:41 04:15:01 02:53:49 44% +7% -48% (17) 18
3 5 Miquel Blanchart Tinto ESP 08:09:51 08:38:04 00:50:03 04:26:36 02:48:12 93% +7% -0% (13) 52
4 47 Tim Brydenbach BEL 08:14:26 08:41:26 00:48:19 04:26:05 02:55:02 100% +0% -0% (3) 61
5 3 Victor Del Corral ESP 08:14:38 08:38:35 00:56:54 04:23:20 02:49:25 51% +0% -49% (15) 54
6 8 Guilherme Manocchio BRA 08:16:43 08:50:50 00:51:11 04:23:27 02:57:04 47% +27% -26% (11) 95
7 19 Mark Oude Bennink NED 08:17:23 08:56:23 00:48:56 04:24:19 02:59:08 17% +51% -32% (7) 112
8 4 Ritchie Nicholls GBR 08:17:57 08:58:34 00:51:20 04:34:07 02:47:30 47% +0% -53% (4) (123)
9 64 Johann Ackermann GER 08:18:26 08:45:17 00:48:56 04:19:25 03:05:05 43% +0% -57% (7) 77
10 59 Herve Faure FRA 08:20:44 08:50:23 00:52:20 04:23:57 02:59:28 45% +0% -55% (8) (95)
11 44 Roman Deisenhofer GER 08:23:04 08:59:36 00:53:35 04:19:54 03:04:35 27% +73% -0% (5) 127
12 65 Luis Henrique Ohde BRA 08:23:37 09:01:04 00:49:08 04:30:14 02:59:14 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (132)
13 73 Ivan Risti ITA 08:24:04 08:59:38 00:49:09 04:29:30 03:00:25 47% +20% -32% (7) 128
14 28 Alexander Schilling GER 08:25:43 09:03:20 00:48:00 04:30:10 03:02:33 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (137)
15 20 Ben Collins USA 08:25:51 08:58:11 00:50:03 04:26:22 03:04:26 100% +0% -0% (2) (123)
16 77 Christian Brader GER 08:26:17 08:52:33 00:57:13 04:30:31 02:53:33 69% +14% -17% (35) 99
17 6 Philip Graves GBR 08:26:57 08:50:18 00:50:30 04:21:49 03:09:38 100% +0% -0% (6) 94
18 29 Pavel Simko SVK 08:27:50 09:05:36 00:53:05 04:22:39 03:07:06 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (151)
19 50 Carlos Lopez Diaz ESP 08:30:35 09:05:53 00:48:41 04:29:37 03:07:17 26% +13% -61% (6) (151)
20 79 Andreas Niedrig GER 08:30:45 09:07:05 00:48:28 04:17:53 03:19:24 47% +39% -14% (13) 156
21 10 Stanislav Krylov RUS 08:31:04 09:09:04 00:48:53 04:28:20 03:08:51 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (163)
22 13 Xavier Torrades ESP 08:32:29 09:10:41 00:50:57 04:30:37 03:05:55 57% +0% -43% (3) 168
23 61 Markus Liebelt GER 08:32:49 09:10:57 00:56:16 04:22:10 03:09:23 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (169)
54 Andrey Lyatskiy RUS 08:33:02 unrated 00:50:19 04:34:18 03:03:26 85% +5% -10% (26) n/a
25 71 Hannes Cool BEL 08:34:06 09:09:02 00:52:24 04:28:34 03:08:08 54% +31% -15% (6) 162
26 60 Marcel Bischof GER 08:34:26 09:12:02 00:57:48 04:32:04 02:59:34 65% +35% -0% (14) 172
27 72 Lars Vold NOR 08:36:01 09:14:23 00:55:45 04:31:38 03:03:38 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (181)
28 16 Daniil Sapunov UKR 08:39:34 09:13:17 00:50:01 04:41:04 03:03:29 100% +0% -0% (2) (177)
29 70 Nicolas Hemet FRA 08:44:14 09:19:58 00:56:52 04:32:37 03:09:45 30% +0% -70% (7) 193
30 14 Allan Hovda NOR 08:45:48 09:19:35 01:04:29 04:32:15 03:04:04 100% +0% -0% (3) 191
31 9 Till Schramm GER 08:46:58 09:24:15 00:56:50 04:31:41 03:13:27 5% +54% -41% (7) 204
32 68 Oliver Simon GBR 08:47:16 09:38:53 00:49:16 04:30:02 03:22:58 55% +0% -45% (12) 238
33 33 Kasper Ougaard DEN 08:51:47 09:28:34 01:01:33 04:35:39 03:09:35 9% +36% -54% (6) (217)
34 15 Darren Jenkins AUS 08:52:07 09:30:04 01:07:10 04:40:30 02:59:26 51% +0% -49% (9) 219
35 11 John Manuel Galindo Rooney ESP 08:53:23 09:39:40 00:52:20 04:44:56 03:11:06 6% +55% -39% (4) 241
36 55 Hywel Davies GBR 08:55:41 09:24:27 01:05:37 04:43:01 03:02:03 99% +1% -0% (7) 205
37 37 Pierre-Yves Facomprez FRA 08:56:44 09:37:27 01:03:52 04:41:55 03:05:57 21% +79% -0% (2) (237)
38 17 Thomas Leboucher FRA 08:57:40 09:37:39 00:54:41 04:42:33 03:15:26 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (237)
39 24 Harri Sokk EST 08:58:15 09:27:49 00:59:16 04:32:13 03:21:46 100% +0% -0% (4) 215
40 41 Emanuele Ciotti ITA 08:58:31 09:49:11 00:52:26 04:42:22 03:18:42 21% +23% -55% (4) (258)
41 56 Maciej Chmura POL 08:58:31 09:38:34 00:51:33 04:52:38 03:09:19 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (238)
42 35 Enric Gussinyer ESP 08:59:33 09:36:44 00:51:55 04:34:33 03:28:05 75% +0% -25% (8) 233
43 43 Ivan Jezko SVK 09:00:37 09:41:15 01:00:53 04:40:03 03:14:40 44% +30% -26% (13) 244
44 53 Craig Twigg GBR 09:01:02 09:59:04 00:54:13 04:27:01 03:34:47 2% +17% -81% (13) (269)
45 26 David Jilek CZE 09:01:44 09:39:13 00:59:03 04:38:08 03:19:33 64% +21% -15% (7) 239
46 45 Peter Kern IRL 09:05:16 10:08:55 00:57:18 04:37:34 03:25:24 2% +0% -98% (8) (276)
47 74 Vincent Depuiset FRA 09:12:32 09:52:53 01:10:13 04:44:43 03:12:36 60% +28% -12% (9) 262
48 23 Gilian Oriet SUI 09:22:12 10:20:05 00:58:34 04:44:23 03:34:15 15% +7% -78% (13) 282
49 32 Gergely Nagy HUN 09:25:53 10:20:58 00:55:26 04:46:00 03:39:27 19% +63% -17% (6) (284)
50 36 Nis Lind DEN 09:30:25 10:05:33 01:01:58 04:40:49 03:42:38 88% +0% -12% (6) 274
51 21 Robert Brundish GBR 09:32:01 10:14:33 00:56:25 04:21:38 04:08:59 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (279)
52 39 Rob Bobbaers BEL 09:37:28 10:20:31 01:03:01 04:45:35 03:43:53 65% +0% -35% (3) (283)
53 22 David Krupicka CZE 10:19:31 10:59:26 01:06:02 05:00:27 04:08:03 100% +0% -0% (2) (295)
54 76 Ignacio Rubio Gomez ESP 10:47:39 11:29:48 00:53:49 05:16:20 04:32:31 100% +0% -0% (2) (297)
55 18 Marek Nemcik SVK 11:02:50 12:16:37 01:14:02 05:18:04 04:25:44 30% +23% -47% (36) 298
25 Roman Thuerauer AUT n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (1 IM Pro race) (n/a)
27 Dennis Matzen DEN n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
31 David Berthou FRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
34 Frantz Andersen DEN n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
38 Marius Elvedal NOR n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
40 Sacha Cavelier CAN n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
42 Ohad Sinai ISR n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
46 Christian Hoerper GER n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
48 Petr Bednar CZE n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (1 IM Pro race) (n/a)
49 Simone Mantolini ITA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
51 Kevin Thewes GER n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
52 Kirill Goldovskiy RUS n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
57 Philipp Koutny SUI n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (1 IM Pro race) (n/a)
58 Romain Garcin FRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
63 Filip Przymusinski POL n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
66 Pavel Andreev RUS n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
67 Alen Kralj SVN n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (1 IM Pro race) (n/a)
69 Patrick Dirksmeier GER n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
75 Zoltan Biro HUN n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
78 Jonathan Ciavattella ITA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
80 Ivan Tutukin RUS n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)

Female Race Participants

Here’s the signing-sheet for the female Pros (thanks to Chris Decker, husband of Astrid Stienen):

NewImage

Those that have signed are still planning to start, but there may be some that signed later or missed the Pro briefing.

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Consistency Overall
1 82 Elisabeth Gruber AUT 09:01:51 09:38:14 01:01:59 04:49:56 03:04:56 100% +0% -0% (6) 45
2 83 Emma Bilham SUI 09:03:55 09:38:59 00:55:31 04:50:33 03:12:51 100% +0% -0% (2) (49)
3 94 Astrid Stienen GER 09:07:42 09:52:25 01:00:10 04:45:47 03:16:45 43% +12% -44% (9) (70)
4 85 Evi Neuscheler GER 09:17:15 09:55:05 01:04:38 04:45:10 03:22:27 60% +40% -0% (3) (77)
5 96 Carolin Lehrieder GER 09:18:40 09:57:14 00:56:37 04:56:39 03:20:24 48% +17% -35% (7) 81
6 87 Annah Watkinson ZAF 09:19:59 09:56:25 01:00:26 05:00:26 03:14:07 100% +0% -0% (2) (80)
7 98 Lucie Reed CZE 09:23:19 09:50:00 00:53:29 05:03:29 03:21:21 59% +0% -41% (26) 63
8 88 Kate Comber GBR 09:30:43 10:01:00 00:55:28 05:02:48 03:27:27 100% +0% -0% (3) 88
9 86 Michaela Rudolf AUT 09:32:54 10:03:19 01:06:23 04:54:49 03:26:42 100% +0% -0% (7) 92
10 90 Nicole Woysch GER 09:41:46 10:15:54 01:02:52 05:00:35 03:33:18 44% +2% -53% (23) 112
11 100 Celia Kuch GER 09:43:31 10:18:46 01:05:24 05:01:42 03:31:25 84% +16% -0% (18) 119
12 95 Helena Herrero Gomez ESP 09:51:30 10:30:23 01:02:16 05:26:51 03:17:23 25% +0% -75% (5) (139)
13 91 Amy Javens USA 09:51:33 10:23:31 01:08:35 05:01:28 03:36:29 100% +0% -0% (5) 128
14 97 Nina Kuhn GER 09:51:41 10:35:41 01:02:31 05:11:49 03:32:21 62% +0% -38% (2) (149)
15 93 Bruna Mahn BRA 10:00:53 10:45:34 00:57:53 05:30:00 03:28:00 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (155)
89 Pamela Tastets CHI n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

  • Patrik Nilsson: 50% (1-1)
  • Bas Diederen: 20% (4-1)
  • Mark Oude Bennink: 8% (11-1)
  • Miquel Blanchart Tinto: 8% (12-1)
  • Guilherme Manocchio: 6% (17-1)
  • Tim Brydenbach: 4% (26-1)
  • Victor Del Corral: 3% (38-1)

Female Race Participants

  • Elisabeth Gruber: 41% (1-1)
  • Emma Bilham: 35% (2-1)
  • Astrid Stienen: 16% (5-1)
  • Evi Neuscheler: 3% (32-1)
  • Carolin Lehrieder: 2% (49-1)

Ironman Wales 2016 – Race Results

Race Conditions

For an extremely slow course, this year’s IM Wales was relatively quick: The adjustment of -15:52 was “fast” compared to the course rating of -25:26. The weather was calm, aiding in a fast swim and a bike ride that wasn’t quite as slow as typical. There was one new course record: Jeanne Cologne’s 5:29:48 was the first sub-5:30 female bike ride and improved on the previous best by Anja Beranek from last year.

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected Prize Money
1 Marc Duelsen GER 00:46:39 05:08:50 02:58:18 09:01:39 08:29 US$ 5000
2 Philip Graves GBR 00:45:26 05:01:43 03:06:43 09:02:56 -05:22 US$ 2750
3 Nick Baldwin SEY 00:47:10 05:05:02 03:07:11 09:07:22 -05:52 US$ 1750
4 Daniel Niederreiter AUT 00:45:25 05:13:39 03:03:19 09:10:42 -08:49 US$ 1250
5 Cedric Lassonde FRA 00:49:19 05:16:00 03:06:04 09:20:27 01:09 US$ 1000
6 Karl-Johan Danielsson SWE 00:45:28 05:18:56 03:17:25 09:31:06 19:08 US$ 750
7 Mike Schifferle SUI 00:54:03 05:15:00 03:12:54 09:34:10 14:11  
8 Hannes Vandermoere BEL 00:51:47 05:33:39 03:03:55 09:38:38 n/a  
9 Matthias Epping GER 00:49:19 05:15:36 04:02:31 10:15:42 n/a  
  Gilian Oriet SUI 00:54:03 06:06:22   DNF    
  Dominic Rohan-Gates GBR 00:57:02     DNF    

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected Prize Money
1 Darbi Roberts USA 00:49:26 05:46:41 03:14:41 10:00:17 -09:57 US$ 5000
2 Jeanne Collonge FRA 00:53:52 05:29:48 03:28:23 10:02:44 -06:23 US$ 2750
3 Nikki Bartlett GBR 00:56:59 05:39:07 03:22:48 10:09:15 n/a US$ 1750
4 Katharina Grohmann GER 01:03:37 05:51:42 03:08:42 10:13:09 -02:39 US$ 1250
5 Kate Comber GBR 00:49:14 05:44:47 03:31:02 10:14:21 02:01 US$ 1000
6 Kristin Lie NOR 01:07:10 05:46:45 03:35:20 10:41:05 14:19 US$ 750
  Diana Riesler GER 00:54:59 05:32:22   DNF    

“Fall Down Seven Times, Get up Eight” – Natascha Badman Will End Her Career in Kona 2016

Natascha Badmann is one of the true legends of triathlon: She started her career in the early 1990 as a duathlete (winning a number of European and World titles over short and long distances) and had some success in short-course triathlon (including a European title in 1997). She is best known for her string of six wins in Kona between 1998 and 2005, racing with her trademark smile.

JapaneseSaying
(Credit: Garr Reynolds’ rendering of an old Japanese saying, from his “Presentation Zen” blog.)

Natascha has had a lot of ups and downs in her long career. During the Kona race in 2007 she crashed on the bike, apparently trying to avoid a motor cycle in a construction zone. It took her a long time to recover from multiple injuries that threatened to end her career, only by 2011 she was able to finish her next Ironman race in Lanzarote. (She covers the Kona accident and her recovery in her book “9 Hours to Glory”, currently only available in German as “9 Stunden zum Ruhm”.) She won another Ironman race (IM South Africa 2012) and also raced well in Kona (14th in 2011, 6th in 2012, 14th in 2013). Her most recent race in Kona was in 2014 where she finished 24th after a flat tire.

One of Natascha’s goals for the 2016 season was to race Kona one more time. She almost qualified under the KPR rules (ending up as the 5th alternate) and ended up with a wild card slot. This post looks at Natascha’s path towards racing Kona 2016.

Planning to Qualify for Kona 2016

NataschaProfilePicTo put Natascha’s plans for the 2016 season into context, one has to look at her 2014 and 2015 seasons. In early 2014 she was hit by a car when training on the bike. Originally she had planned to do IM Melbourne, but that was too close to the accident and she switched to IM South Africa, which was still to early and resulted in a DNF. In order to secure a last minute Kona slot she had to race both IM Germany and IM Switzerland just three weeks apart. Her Kona race didn’t go too well, she had a flat on the bike and finished in 24th place.

After Kona 2014 Natascha needed some more time to properly recover from the injuries she had suffered in her most recent accident and the amount of racing she had to do to make it to Kona. “When I talked to my doctor about racing again, he asked ‘Do you know how old you are?’ I think he suggested I should retire – but that’s a song I heard before!” She skipped the 2015 European summer racing season but planned her qualifying campaign: “I want to race Kona again in 2016. It would be 20 years after my first race in 1996 [where she finished second to Paula Newby-Fraser] and I’d race with a ‘Kona Age’ of 50 [she is born in 1966 so would be racing in the women’s 50-54 agegroup if she didn’t race as a Pro]. But first I have to qualify!”

In order to qualify under the “Kona Pro Ranking” Natascha would have to finish on the podium in three Ironman races and another two 70.3s between September 2015 and July 2016 – a lot of racing for an older athlete usually dealing with a niggle or two that makes even regular training a struggle.

(Photo: Natascha in a relaxed mood, Credit: Georg Wallner / Red Bull Content Pool)

Fall 2015

Natascha was optimistic going into her first race of the qualifying period, IM Vichy. She wasn’t too far back after the swim, and she is still one of the strongest bike riders among the female Pros. In T2 she had a ten minute lead but her lack of run training showed and she fell back to third place, less than two minutes behind second place. (Both winner Gurutze Frades and second place Tine Holst went on to qualify for Kona.)

Just five weeks later Natascha started another Ironman race, IM Barcelona. She hadn’t yet fully recovered from Vichy and decided to end her race shortly after T2. “I’ve had the legs for a great bike split [4:40:22] – it would have been a new course record – but I wasn’t yet ready for a good run. I decided to save the energy for my next race.” Another five weeks later she took the long trip to Malaysia for her next Ironman race. This time she had another solid race: A well executed bike allowed her to run strong, finishing in third place – the minimum she needed to stay on her path to Kona.

Spring 2016

Natascha still wanted to qualify for Kona 2016 and after her 2015 results she was on track but still needed another good Ironman – and some points from 70.3 races. She decided to race the South American 70.3 Championships in early April as part of her build-up to her next Ironman race. Another niggle kept her from doing solid run training during the winter, but as 70.3 Brasilia was a higher points race, even an 8th place was par for Kona qualifying. She had to smile when five minutes before the start it was announced that the race would be delayed to wait for the sun to rise and much enjoyed racing in somewhat “less rigid” circumstances.

Natascha planned to do her next Ironman in Brasil as well – the high-points race of Regional Championships in Florianopolis at the end of May would be a good chance to score the remaining points for her Kona slot. However her coach and partner Toni Hasler was in a bike crash. “Toni had some skull fractures, a broken collarbone and broken ribs that punctured his lung. Flying was impossible for him, and I wanted to care for him during his recovery. He was with me for all my ups and downs, and he was at my side in 2007 after my accident.” She changed her plans and targeted IM France in early June depending on Toni’s condition but also registered for IM Austria three weeks later.

Summer 2016

NataschaBikeZurich

Toni was quickly feeling better and getting adventurous, but Natascha’s niggles kept her once again from decent training. They decided to scout the course of IM France – only to be robbed when thugs slashed their tires. (Luckily the most valuable things stolen were their laptops – not her one-of-a-kind Cheetah bike.) The race itself wasn’t much better: After getting beaten up for most of the swim, she was frustrated when big packs rolled by her in the early parts of the bike course. Once again she decided to save her legs for another race. Two weeks after Nice she raced 70.3 Italy. She placed sixth but crashed in rainy conditions on the bike and was barely able to finish the run. It was quickly apparent that she wouldn’t be able to race Austria or the European Championships in Germany one week later. Her last chance to qualify would be her home race, IM Switzerland.

Natascha was barely able to race six weeks after her crash. Even so she posted up the second best bike split (behind Daniela Ryf who was on her way to the first sub-9 finish in Zürich) and reached T2 still in sight of the podium places. But her lack of proper run training showed and she didn’t have the run legs to place better than 9th. This left her as the fifth alternate in the July rankings.

Improving her ranking and qualifying in August would have required her to place well in another Ironman – that would have been her sixth Ironman start within less than one year, in the hopes of racing another Ironman in Kona. However Natascha decided she wasn’t recovered enough to place well in another Ironman and was forced to accept that she wouldn’t be able to race Kona 2016.

(Photo: Natascha readies her unique “CAT Cheetah” bike for IM Switzerland. Supplied by Natascha.)

Receiving a Wild Card for Her Last Pro Race

On September 17th Ironman announced the official Professional start list for Kona, and the last athlete on the list was Natascha with bib number 144: “To commemorate her retirement from professional racing” she had received a wild card slot from Ironman in order to be able to participate in the Professional wave. She has made it clear that this will be her last Professional race – and this wonderful gesture by Ironman allows her to end her extraordinary career in an appropriate location: Racing the Ironman World Championship in Kona, the site of her greatest successes.

Kona 2016 Resources

Here is a list of resources for Kona 2016 (race on October 8th):

  • Kona Rating Report (100+ pages with tons of information about the Pro field, order using this link or click ‘Get Kona Report’ in the sidebar, check out some more details and feedback in the post announcing the Report)
    KPRTitle
  • My „always up-to-date“ Kona 2016 Pro Startlist (last update on Sept 29th with the withdrawals of Natascha Schmitt, Mareen Hufe and Pete Jacobs)
  • My predictions for the male and female Pros (including a “heatmap” of the strengths of each athlete).
  • If you want to know more details about the previous results of the Kona Pros, here’s a self-contained HTML file (that you can download locally – right click and “Save Link ..” or similar) with the 2016 Kona Pro Data.
  • I’ve had a great chat with John Newsom and Bevan Eyles on the IMTalk podcast (Episode 535).
  • The Kona previews I have written for triathlete Magazine are available on the web, check out my look at the female and male fields.
  • Tawnee Prazak and I have a race preview chat on the EndurancePlanet “Kona Special“.
  • On the “Cup of Tri” (Episode 93) Rob Wilby and I put a special focus on the chances of the British Pros in Kona.
  • I’ve had a long chat with Bevan McKinnon (who will be racing in Kona and hopes to do well in the M45 agegroup) about how the Kona Pro races are shaping up and who to look for on Fitter Radio. I’m stoked to be in the same episode with legends such as Lisa Bentley, Paul Buick, Brent McMahon and the IM Talk hosts Bevan and John.

Here are some more posts from my friends and triathlon media:

I’ll add to this list as soon as my friends and I release more information closer to the race!

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