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Ironman Sweden 2014 – Analyzing Results

Race Conditions

As usual, IM Sweden was a quick course. The race adjustment of 20:05 is almost the same as last year (20:09). 

Male Race Results

Horst Reichel won his first Ironman race. After exiting the swim with the lead group, he posted the fastest bike split, and ran a solid 2:51 marathon. Victor Zyemtsev finished second and collected valuable KPR points. Tom Lowe was the fastest athlete on land, but had to make up too much ground after a 57 minute swim to place better than third.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected
1 Horst Reichel GER 00:49:24 04:29:38 02:51:09 08:13:01 -29:15
2 Victor Zyemtsev USA 00:49:38 04:42:22 02:44:18 08:19:17 -02:18
3 Tom Lowe GBR 00:57:28 04:29:58 02:48:24 08:19:23 03:17
4 Nick Baldwin SEY 00:55:31 04:35:41 02:55:47 08:30:30 -04:18
5 Harry Wiltshire GBR 00:49:32 04:41:45 02:58:24 08:32:37 -25:36
6 Simon Jung GER 00:49:34 04:42:01 02:58:22 08:33:09 n/a
7 Jonas Djurback SWE 00:49:33 04:42:23 03:09:33 08:44:08 03:00
8 Karl-Johan Danielsson SWE 00:49:31 04:41:58 03:11:59 08:46:57 -12:42
9 Oliver Simon GBR 00:49:22 04:42:10 03:23:51 08:58:56 -10:22
10 Jonas Bergkvist SWE 00:57:20 04:58:54 03:16:56 09:16:36 n/a
11 David Jilek CZE 01:00:26 05:02:43 03:24:10 09:31:45 01:45
12 Patrik Nilsson SWE 00:49:26 04:38:10 04:04:06 09:35:31 1:00:55
13 Lukas Polan CZE 01:05:34 04:57:36 03:33:37 09:41:02 22:02
14 Stephan Trettin GER 01:01:22 05:07:02 03:41:08 09:54:08 n/a
15 Luke Dragstra CAN 00:57:34 05:11:23 03:41:24 09:55:22 1:08:57
16 Marek Nemcik SVK 01:10:55 05:41:19 04:19:18 11:18:23 -14:43
  Christophe Bastie FRA 00:55:27 04:31:56   DNF  
  Paul Hawkins GBR 00:49:40     DNF  

Female Race Results

There was no doubt that Leanda Cave was the strongest female in Sweden. She posted the fastest times in all three disciplines and won by more than 30 minutes in front of Erika Csomor and Camilla Lindholm:

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected
1 Leanda Cave GBR 00:49:39 04:57:21 03:05:26 08:56:50 -10:12
2 Erika Csomor HUN 01:00:41 05:16:56 03:07:40 09:30:04 19:32
3 Camilla Lindholm SWE 01:09:18 05:08:13 03:10:21 09:31:38 -03:05
4 Camilla Larsson SWE 01:15:36 05:03:38 03:26:36 09:50:21 n/a
5 Emma Graaf SWE 01:00:33 05:19:06 03:29:51 09:53:41 -22:16
6 Lena Holmgren SWE 01:04:59 05:28:36 03:21:06 09:59:12 n/a
7 Jacqui Gordon USA 01:01:28 05:16:00 03:38:49 10:01:17 08:58
8 Angela Kuehnlein GER 01:03:31 05:23:45 03:43:09 10:14:11 n/a
  Louise Rundqvist SWE 01:08:11     DNF  

MetaMan Bintan 2014 (Aug 24th) – Predictions

Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2012 Brett Carter (AUS) 08:43:58 Candice Hammond (NZL) 09:31:08
2013 Courtney Ogden (AUS) 08:31:57 Caroline Steffen (SUI) 09:13:57

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Courtney Ogden AUS 00:50:48 04:36:21 03:02:31 08:31:57
2 Tim Van Berkel AUS 00:50:45 04:36:07 03:12:59 08:42:12
3 Fredrik Croneborg SWE 00:54:41 04:45:34 03:11:30 08:53:55

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Caroline Steffen SUI 00:50:52 04:49:38 03:29:39 09:13:57
2 Gina Crawford NZL 00:50:54 05:11:52 03:22:45 09:28:17
3 Candice Hammond NZL 01:04:39 05:12:15 03:19:40 09:38:48

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:31:57 Courtney Ogden 2013-08-31
Swim overall 00:48:10 Brett Carter 2012-09-15
Bike overall 04:35:30 Brett Carter 2012-09-15
Run overall 03:01:07 Fredrik Croneborg 2012-09-15
Total female 09:13:57 Caroline Steffen 2013-08-31
Swim female 00:50:52 Caroline Steffen 2013-08-31
Bike female 04:49:38 Caroline Steffen 2013-08-31
Run female 03:19:40 Candice Hammond 2013-08-31

Course Rating

The Course Rating for MetaMan is – 08:36.

Race Adjustments for MetaMan

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Athletes Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2012 -14:55 -02:03 03:17 -10:06 9 -14:55 -02:03 03:17 -10:06
2013 -02:16 -01:17 01:59 -11:28 11 -08:36 -01:40 02:38 -10:47

Male Race Participants

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating Rank
1 Cameron Brown NZL 08:36:23 08:28:18 00:49:44 04:41:17 02:52:47 14
2 Jan Raphael GER 08:46:52 08:38:37 00:48:34 04:44:50 03:00:37 42
3 Courtney Ogden AUS 08:51:36 08:43:16 00:50:15 04:47:51 03:01:08 54
4 Fredrik Croneborg SWE 08:56:52 08:48:27 00:51:37 04:52:21 02:57:26 69
5 Stefan Schmid GER 08:57:16 08:48:51 00:53:45 04:48:27 03:01:02 71
6 Pedro Gomes POR 09:05:44 08:57:11 00:51:22 04:50:58 03:10:02 114
7 Carl Read NZL 09:08:02 08:59:27 00:53:00 05:00:33 03:02:05 126
8 Benjamin Williams USA 09:17:42 09:08:58 00:53:39 05:03:26 03:00:56 (171)
9 Joseph Spindler GER 09:20:19 09:11:32 01:02:58 04:52:01 03:08:35 183
Niels Brandt-Joergensen DEN n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
Peter Mauro Aus n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating Rank
1 Gina Crawford NZL 09:34:12 09:25:12 00:51:51 05:13:39 03:12:55 10
2 Candice Hammond NZL 09:47:10 09:37:58 01:00:57 05:14:46 03:16:24 35
3 Diana Riesler GER 09:47:15 09:38:03 00:59:13 05:06:33 03:25:23 36
4 Michelle Gailey AUS 09:56:27 09:47:06 00:54:18 05:36:43 03:18:47 (56)
5 Rebecca Hoschke AUS 10:04:20 09:54:52 01:01:50 05:21:22 03:24:26 78
6 Alice Hector GBR 10:50:23 10:40:12 00:54:36 05:46:29 03:39:35 (151)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

  • Cameron Brown: 41% (1-1)
  • Courtney Ogden: 29% (2-1)
  • Jan Raphael: 14% (6-1)
  • Fredrik Croneborg: 7% (14-1)
  • Pedro Gomes: 6% (15-1)
  • Stefan Schmid: 2% (62-1)

Female Race Participants

  • Gina Crawford: 63% (1-1)
  • Candice Hammond: 17% (5-1)
  • Diana Riesler: 13% (6-1)
  • Michelle Gailey: 4% (26-1)
  • Rebecca Hoschke: 2% (48-1)

“Silent” Updates to the KPR 2015

When WTC announced the changes to the KPR for 2015, a number of questions were left open (for examples please refer to my post on the number of Pro races). In the last week, Ironman has quietly updated their 2015 Pro schedule and a few open questions have been answered:

  • The announcement included that there would be a fifth Regional Championship. It is now clear that this will be the African Championship in South Africa. (Update Aug 20th: Strangely, the Ironman website has now reverted to show South Africa as just a P-2000 race, with price money TBD. New Update Sep 4th: There were a number of announcements today that South Africa would be a P-4000 race and the African Regional Championship. I would assume that the information slipped out a bit early and was quickly retracted for a while.)
  • The announcement announced changes to the North American Ironman races but did not contain any statements whether there would be changes in other regions. When asked, WTC told me that regions outside of North America and Europe would be „Status Quo“. In fact, all races in Africa, Asia and Pacific keep their Pro status.
  • WTC said that they would be „[s]ome changes and refocusing of money and points strategically in EMEA region“ and there was some speculation about changes for European races. However, the published race calendar does not have any changes for the European races.

I am a bit surprised by these non-changes and the way they were made public without any press release. As there are no changes outside of North America for 2015, the new schedule – with a fewer number of races in North America – puts North American athletes at a clear disadvantage. I think that we can still expect some changes in Europe for 2016, but apparently the time for making these changes for 2015 qualifying has been running out.

For now, we will have 33 Pro races in the 2015 Kona qualifying (up one race from 32 races in 2014, mainly because there are going to be five new races). Unless there are going to be more changes (such as new races or races loosing Pro status), that number will go down to 30 races for 2016.

Challenge Penticton 2014 (Aug 24th) – Predictions

Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2013 Jeff Symonds (CAN) 08:29:57 Carrie Lester (AUS) 09:27:26

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Jeff Symonds CAN 00:55:37 04:43:26 02:47:31 08:29:57
2 Scott Defilippis USA 00:59:01 04:56:03 02:45:54 08:44:48
3 Jamie Whyte NZL 00:57:20 04:51:47 03:03:35 08:56:08

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Carrie Lester AUS 00:58:59 05:07:53 03:17:01 09:27:26
2 Karen Thibodeau CAN 00:58:47 05:19:12 03:20:21 09:41:42
3 Jen Annett CAN 01:09:22 05:21:06 03:24:47 09:58:23

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:29:57 Jeff Symonds 2013-08-25
Swim overall 00:55:37 Jeff Symonds 2013-08-25
Bike overall 04:43:26 Jeff Symonds 2013-08-25
Run overall 02:45:54 Scott Defilippis 2013-08-25
Total female 09:27:26 Carrie Lester 2013-08-25
Swim female 00:58:47 Karen Thibodeau 2013-08-25
Bike female 05:07:53 Carrie Lester 2013-08-25
Run female 03:17:01 Carrie Lester 2013-08-25

Course Rating

The Course Rating for Challenge Penticton is 13:58.

Race Adjustments for Challenge Penticton

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Athletes Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2013 13:58 -04:35 -01:55 07:35 13 13:58 -04:35 -01:55 07:35

Male Race Participants

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating Rank
1 Jeff Symonds CAN 08:22:22 08:35:42 00:50:59 04:44:01 02:49:06 30
2 Thomas Gerlach USA 08:47:11 09:01:11 00:54:17 04:45:18 03:14:51 136
3 Sean Bechtel CAN 08:49:22 09:03:25 00:47:27 04:44:44 03:16:23 (142)
4 Scott Defilippis USA 08:50:28 09:04:33 00:55:39 05:00:47 03:01:49 147
5 Andrew Russell CAN 08:51:12 09:05:18 00:48:49 04:50:59 03:14:19 (151)
6 Simon Cochrane NZL 08:55:44 09:09:57 00:53:01 05:03:12 03:07:53 174
7 Matthew Sheeks USA 08:58:10 09:12:27 01:02:48 05:01:13 02:57:26 188
8 Douglas MacLean USA 09:06:53 09:21:24 00:58:37 05:03:35 03:10:17 210
9 Adam O’Meara CAN 09:10:48 09:25:25 00:54:29 05:08:56 03:13:22 224
10 Nathan Killam CAN 09:16:46 09:31:33 00:54:52 05:00:33 03:18:17 (255)
11 Nathan Champness CAN 09:21:37 09:36:31 00:56:40 04:48:52 03:21:01 (269)
12 Christopher Bagg USA 09:22:00 09:36:55 00:53:28 04:54:38 03:39:03 271
13 Rick Floyd USA 09:37:54 09:53:14 00:59:43 05:17:20 03:11:21 (344)
14 Chris Young CAN 10:22:26 10:38:57 01:02:59 05:01:16 04:04:39 (441)
15 Elmar Heger GER 10:25:02 10:41:37 00:56:07 05:13:37 04:25:40 (442)
16 Josh Seifarth CAN 10:30:23 10:47:07 00:53:20 05:10:13 04:21:34 (447)

Female Race Participants

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating Rank
1 Carrie Lester AUS 09:28:57 09:44:03 00:55:57 05:15:54 03:25:49 49
2 Mackenzie Madison USA 09:35:49 09:51:06 01:00:51 05:19:59 03:18:30 69
3 Uli Bromme USA 09:40:46 09:56:11 01:02:44 05:19:31 03:27:49 83
4 Karen Thibodeau CAN 09:43:04 09:58:33 00:55:03 05:24:41 03:23:17 91
5 Christine Fletcher CAN 10:02:23 10:18:22 00:59:05 05:28:28 03:41:43 128
6 Jana Candrova CZE 10:07:57 10:24:05 01:03:50 05:34:32 03:39:08 134
7 Trish Deim USA 10:09:26 10:25:37 01:05:19 05:24:33 03:45:32 137
8 Jen Annett CAN 10:10:00 10:26:11 01:03:35 05:19:00 03:32:58 (138)
9 Natasha Van der Merwe USA 10:15:44 10:32:05 01:04:16 05:26:19 03:52:14 141
10 Jennifer Luebke USA 10:25:29 10:42:05 00:54:00 05:31:58 03:44:48 (153)
11 Alyssa Godesky USA 10:28:23 10:45:04 01:03:40 05:39:54 03:53:40 154
12 Cathleen Knutson USA 10:36:08 10:53:01 01:02:49 05:46:16 03:38:28 (157)
  Danielle Andre   n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

  • Jeff Symonds: 52% (1-1)
  • Scott Defilippis: 25% (3-1)
  • Thomas Gerlach: 10% (9-1)
  • Andrew Russell: 3% (29-1)
  • Sean Bechtel: 3% (32-1)
  • Adam O’Meara: 2% (55-1)

Female Race Participants

  • Carrie Lester: 64% (1-1)
  • Uli Bromme: 19% (4-1)
  • Karen Thibodeau: 9% (10-1)
  • Mackenzie Madison: 6% (16-1)

Ironman Copenhagen 2014 (Aug 24th) – Predictions

Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2010 Tim Van Berkel (AUS) 08:07:39 Rebekah Keat (AUS) 08:54:36
2011 Tim Van Berkel (AUS) 08:11:15 Rebekah Keat (AUS) 08:52:42
2012 Aaron Farlow (AUS) 08:20:09 Camilla Pedersen (DEN) 09:12:27
2013 Jens Petersen-Bach (DEN) 08:12:41 Eva Wutti (AUT) 08:37:36

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Jens Petersen-Bach DEN 00:49:46 04:33:51 02:45:15 08:12:41
2 Henrik Hyldelund DEN 00:47:19 04:23:58 02:57:52 08:13:39
3 Esben Hovgaard DEN 00:51:46 04:31:49 02:49:17 08:16:38

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Eva Wutti AUT 00:52:55 04:39:58 03:00:51 08:37:36
2 Daniela Saemmler GER 00:53:02 04:57:42 03:08:14 09:02:51
3 Lucie Reed CZE 00:49:45 05:00:16 03:10:07 09:04:08

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:07:39 Tim Van Berkel 2010-08-01
Swim overall 00:45:22 Stephen Bayliss 2011-08-01
Bike overall 04:23:58 Henrik Hyldelund 2013-08-18
Run overall 02:38:58 Mads Vittrup 2011-08-01
Total female 08:37:36 Eva Wutti 2013-08-18
Swim female 00:48:29 Ann Lønnberg 2011-08-01
Bike female 04:39:58 Eva Wutti 2013-08-18
Run female 03:00:51 Eva Wutti 2013-08-18

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Copenhagen is 25:22.

Race Adjustments for IM Copenhagen

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Athletes Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2010 30:40 01:24 09:51 10:08 18 30:40 01:24 09:51 10:08
2011 24:30 02:49 11:13 06:44 19 27:35 02:06 10:32 08:26
2012 18:04 02:03 10:24 04:28 16 24:25 02:05 10:29 07:06
2013 28:12 00:50 15:18 07:04 20 25:22 01:46 11:42 07:06

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Copenhagen has 2000 KPR points for the winner. It has a total prize purse of 75k$.

Male Race Participants

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating Rank
1 Timo Bracht GER 07:57:18 08:20:49 00:49:25 04:36:04 02:50:45 3
2 Clemente Alonso-McKernan ESP 08:13:43 08:38:03 00:48:06 04:49:50 02:53:37 (40)
3 Jens Petersen-Bach DEN 08:18:13 08:42:46 00:52:14 04:49:15 02:55:48 53
4 Anton Blokhin UKR 08:21:24 08:46:06 00:48:27 04:47:46 03:02:22 61
5 Mads Vittrup DEN 08:21:35 08:46:18 00:55:21 04:55:50 02:48:35 (62)
6 Marc Duelsen GER 08:22:59 08:47:46 00:52:00 04:42:57 03:01:28 (66)
7 Esben Hovgaard DEN 08:26:36 08:51:34 00:53:06 04:48:31 03:04:10 (82)
8 Mika Luoto FIN 08:29:43 08:54:50 00:53:53 04:54:37 03:01:37 (101)
9 Petr Vabrousek CZE 08:33:47 08:59:06 00:55:07 04:52:57 03:03:52 123
10 Henrik Hyldelund DEN 08:33:51 08:59:10 00:47:42 04:44:03 03:18:23 125
11 Teemu Lemmettylae FIN 08:39:46 09:05:23 00:57:23 04:55:29 03:03:18 151
12 Keegan Williams NZL 08:42:18 09:08:02 00:53:04 04:56:04 03:12:43 167
13 Antonio Jesus Aguilar Conejo ESP 09:01:58 09:28:40 01:00:46 05:05:52 02:59:29 (239)
14 Matic Modic SLO 09:06:35 09:33:31 00:56:12 05:02:21 03:13:52 (263)
15 Anders Wagner DEN 09:10:00 09:37:06 01:03:28 05:06:03 03:09:03 (274)
16 Lukas Polan CZE 09:13:21 09:40:37 01:03:31 05:02:07 03:20:14 (285)
17 Anders Lawaetz DEN 09:19:00 09:46:33 01:01:49 05:01:16 03:21:20 (314)
18 Kasper Ougaard DEN 09:21:39 09:49:20 01:02:38 05:00:19 03:28:46 (327)
19 David Jilek CZE 09:23:30 09:51:16 00:58:18 04:57:43 03:33:24 (334)
20 Gerhard De Bruin ZAF 09:29:51 09:57:56 00:56:04 05:05:38 03:34:24 (360)
21 Steve Clark GBR 09:30:28 09:58:35 00:59:13 05:08:39 03:28:32 (366)
22 Martin Cain GBR 09:34:48 10:03:08 00:59:29 05:19:03 03:35:15 371
23 Ludovic Le Guellec FRA 09:34:50 10:03:10 01:00:20 05:21:43 03:32:07 372
24 Dan Brown PHI 09:35:01 10:03:21 01:03:20 05:39:36 03:49:53 374
25 Petr Vales CZE 09:36:01 10:04:24 01:02:41 05:11:30 03:27:58 (378)
Vincent Depuiset FRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
Nick Hemet n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
Roman Krutina CZE n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
Christian Nilsson n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
Anders Stampe n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
Hendrik-Jan Verhaegen BEL n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
Richard Whitfield GBR n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating Rank
1 Daniela Ryf SUI 09:00:14 09:26:51 00:52:47 05:05:23 03:10:52 (14)
2 Leanda Cave GBR 09:00:22 09:27:00 00:50:47 05:11:05 03:19:56 14
3 Sofie Goos BEL 09:09:47 09:36:53 00:55:39 05:16:40 03:19:10 32
4 Mareen Hufe GER 09:19:37 09:47:12 01:01:06 05:11:24 03:28:44 56
5 Camilla Lindholm SWE 09:28:00 09:55:59 01:08:26 05:21:17 03:16:18 80
6 Beate Goertz GER 09:28:09 09:56:09 01:04:25 05:07:28 03:27:26 (82)
7 Evi Neuscheler GER 09:33:57 10:02:14 01:03:06 05:15:51 03:27:33 (94)
8 Maria Lemeseva RUS 09:46:25 10:15:19 01:06:36 05:32:46 03:25:30 120
9 Tamsyn Hayes NZL 09:48:43 10:17:44 00:58:52 05:21:08 03:49:49 125
10 Nicole Woysch GER 09:55:55 10:25:17 00:58:35 05:30:28 03:47:39 136
11 Line Foss NOR 10:25:26 10:56:15 01:26:19 05:28:17 03:42:54 (159)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

  • Timo Bracht: 59% (1-1)
  • Clemente Alonso-McKernan: 17% (5-1)
  • Jens Petersen-Bach: 17% (5-1)
  • Mads Vittrup: 3% (35-1)

Female Race Participants

  • Leanda Cave: 41% (1-1)
  • Sofie Goos: 30% (2-1)
  • Daniela Ryf: 14% (6-1)
  • Mareen Hufe: 10% (9-1)
  • Camilla Lindholm: 3% (34-1)

KPR Situation

On the men’s side, the big name on the start list is Timo Bracht. Theoretically, he would be in a safe position for a slot after validating, but he has already indicated that he is not interested in racing Kona this year. (Instead, he is targeting IM Mallorca for a good start into the next qualifying cycle.) The best placed athlete in the KPR is Petr Vabrousek with 3.190 points (230 to be discarded). In order to reach the projected cutoff of 4.400 points, he would need a 3rd place in Copenhagen. The only other athlete with a theoretical chance for a slot is Marc Duelsen at 2.140 points (65 to be discarded), but even with a win he needs some other athlete’s bad luck in order to make it.

On the women’s side we have Leanda Cave (probably a DNS after just winning in Sweden), Daniela Ryf (who should already be safe with 5.810 points), Sofie Goos (at 4.265 with 500 points to be discarded) and Mareen Hufe (3.930 with 45 to be discarded). It seems that Sofie and Mareen are racing for one slot – so whoever is in front of the other should be good for a slot as long as it’s at least a 3rd place.

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