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IM Regensburg 2012 – Predictions (Details Post)

Male Race Participants

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Dirk Bockel LUX 08:16:19 08:25:45 8
2 Petr Vabrousek CZE 08:47:17 08:57:18 118
3 Flo Kriegl AUT 08:47:55 08:57:57 123
4 Andreas Wolpert GER 09:07:15 09:17:39 260
5 Rene Vallant AUT 09:15:33 09:26:06 327
6 Paul Hawkins GBR 09:18:13 09:28:49 346
7 Craig Twigg GBR 09:21:25 09:32:05 376
8 Matjaz Kovac SVN 09:39:20 09:50:20 498
9 Jens Kaiser   n/a unrated n/a
10 Tomas Mika   n/a unrated n/a
11 Joan Gómez   n/a unrated n/a
12 Florian Kratz   n/a unrated n/a
13 Michael Raelert   n/a unrated n/a
14 Vincent Rieß   n/a unrated n/a

Female Race Participants

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Monika Stadlmann AUT 10:33:40 10:45:42 219
2 Heidi Sessner   n/a unrated n/a

Results for Dirk Bockel (LUX)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Hawaii 2011-10-15 08:12:58 08:14:08 08:25:45 4
IM Florida 2010-11-06 08:21:23 08:37:06 08:30:18 3
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 08:22:59 08:23:55 08:27:24 8
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 08:29:55 08:25:42 08:29:54 7
IM New Zealand 2009-03-07 08:27:12 08:34:54 08:34:54 3

Results for Petr Vabrousek (CZE)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Cairns 2012-06-02 08:40:00 08:45:11 08:57:18 5
IM Lanzarote 2012-05-19 09:07:30 09:02:48 08:57:50 6
IM South Africa 2012-04-22 09:09:57 09:04:02 08:57:36 6
IM Melbourne 2012-03-24 08:29:25 08:37:50 08:57:19 13
Challenge Wanaka 2012-01-21 09:15:21 09:10:35 08:58:13 6
IM Western Australia 2011-12-04 08:35:08 08:43:38 08:57:39 6
IM Hawaii 2011-10-15 09:13:42 09:15:00 08:58:18 30
IM Texas 2011-05-21 08:37:59 08:43:42 08:57:31 9
IM St. George 2011-05-07 09:11:11 09:11:37 08:58:07 9
IM South Africa 2011-04-10 08:40:36 08:52:17 08:57:31 8
IM New Zealand 2011-03-05 08:58:30 08:59:52 08:57:45 6
Challenge Wanaka 2011-01-15 09:27:44 09:29:52 08:57:39 5
IM Cozumel 2010-11-28 08:39:52 08:50:12 08:56:09 8
IM Florida 2010-11-06 08:29:59 08:45:58 08:56:25 7
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 08:56:26 08:57:26 08:56:56 41
IM Canada 2010-08-29 08:39:16 08:47:21 08:56:55 4
IM Lake Placid 2010-07-25 08:46:33 08:50:28 08:57:24 2
IM Brasil 2010-05-30 08:36:15 08:52:35 08:57:45 6
IM St. George 2010-05-01 09:09:43 09:05:34 08:58:02 6
Challenge Wanaka 2010-01-16 09:00:08 09:00:55 08:57:37 4
IM Western Australia 2009-12-05 08:57:08 09:13:06 08:57:27 10
IM Arizona 2009-11-22 08:37:45 08:47:10 08:56:37 10
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 09:23:03 09:18:24 08:57:08 48
IM Wisconsin 2009-09-13 09:08:26 09:06:41 08:55:55 7
IM Lake Placid 2009-07-26 09:10:24 09:10:48 08:55:17 6
Challenge Roth 2009-07-12 08:15:03 08:35:38 08:54:21 10
IM Brasil 2009-05-31 08:37:18 08:49:56 08:55:32 3
IM South Africa 2009-04-05 08:36:07 08:47:29 08:55:54 3
Challenge Wanaka 2009-01-01 08:44:38 08:50:24 08:56:28 2
IM Arizona 2008-11-23 08:28:09 08:34:42 08:56:52 8
IM Florida 2008-11-01 08:23:00 08:42:09 08:58:24 3
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 09:04:42 09:03:00 08:59:34 31
IM Lake Placid 2008-07-20 08:55:20 08:53:43 08:59:18 2
IM Switzerland 2008-07-13 08:53:05 09:05:43 08:59:44 6
IM Brasil 2008-05-25 08:53:58 09:02:55 08:59:15 4
IM Australia 2008-04-06 09:11:11 09:14:11 08:58:55 11
Challenge Wanaka 2008-01-19 09:09:36 09:13:13 08:57:32 6
IM Western Australia 2007-12-01 08:27:15 08:43:37 08:56:03 10
IM Florida 2007-11-03 08:53:05 09:09:02 08:57:17 21
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 09:42:26 09:42:16 08:56:01 56
IM Louisville 2007-08-26 10:58:00 11:00:05 08:50:31 22
IM Germany 2007-07-01 08:22:31 08:36:38 08:50:31 5
IM Brasil 2007-05-27 08:40:42 08:51:18 08:52:14 6
IM Arizona 2007-04-15 08:41:59 08:45:03 08:52:21 4
IM South Africa 2007-03-18 08:48:19 08:47:31 08:53:28 4
IM Hawaii 2006-10-21 09:10:45 09:06:35 08:54:30 47
IM Lake Placid 2006-07-23 09:03:12 08:56:02 08:52:17 7
IM Arizona 2006-04-09 08:44:54 08:45:59 08:51:30 8
IM South Africa 2006-03-18 08:38:52 08:40:31 08:52:48 3
IM Western Australia 2005-11-27 08:36:05 08:38:20 08:56:27 5
IM Hawaii 2005-10-15 09:12:17 09:11:44 09:33:57 50
IM Wisconsin 2005-09-11 11:19:03 11:00:54 09:42:05 23
IM Brasil 2005-05-28 09:06:45 09:06:45 08:58:25 6
IM Arizona 2005-04-09 08:49:46 08:49:46 08:49:46 4

Results for Flo Kriegl (AUT)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Arizona 2011-11-19 08:44:46 08:57:57 08:57:57 21

Results for Andreas Wolpert (GER)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Wisconsin 2011-09-11 09:13:57 09:14:06 09:17:39 5
IM Austria 2011-07-03 08:44:37 09:11:42 09:18:40 11
Challenge Roth 2010-07-18 08:53:53 09:12:45 09:21:19 14
IM Lanzarote 2009-05-23 09:23:15 09:20:22 09:24:46 14
Challenge Roth 2008-07-13 08:56:33 09:18:05 09:26:33 20
IM Lanzarote 2008-05-24 09:37:22 09:34:45 09:30:31 17
Challenge Roth 2007-06-24 08:58:43 09:20:32 09:27:03 20
IM Wisconsin 2005-09-11 09:53:49 09:37:57 09:37:57 14

Results for Rene Vallant (AUT)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Regensburg 2011-08-07 08:56:50 09:08:54 09:26:06 6
IM Arizona 2009-11-22 09:23:18 09:33:33 09:34:45 23
IM Switzerland 2009-07-12 09:20:08 09:34:42 09:35:17 15
IM Arizona 2008-11-23 09:22:48 09:30:03 09:35:41 30
IM Florida 2005-11-05 10:02:55 10:07:18 09:42:47 29
IM Austria 2005-07-03 09:15:43 09:15:43 09:15:43 23

Results for Paul Hawkins (GBR)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM UK 2011-07-31 09:03:41 09:14:55 09:28:49 7
IM France 2010-06-27 14:16:23 14:38:02 09:42:44 19
IM UK 2009-08-02 09:28:35 09:25:29 09:42:44 10
IM UK 2008-09-07 10:06:40 10:05:06 12:28:41 12
IM Switzerland 2007-06-24 14:00:55 14:22:07 14:24:48 25
IM France 2006-06-24 14:15:35 14:28:22 14:28:22 23

Results for Craig Twigg (GBR)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM South Africa 2012-04-22 09:10:48 09:04:53 09:32:05 7
IM South Africa 2011-04-10 09:10:01 09:22:21 09:52:12 16
IM UK 2010-08-01 10:21:02 10:28:36 10:28:36 9

Results for Matjaz Kovac (SVN)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Wales 2011-09-11 10:22:11 10:11:55 09:50:20 15
IM Regensburg 2011-08-07 09:09:08 09:21:28 09:47:49 10
IM Germany 2011-07-24 09:34:50 09:46:33 09:51:11 24
IM Arizona 2010-11-21 10:07:28 10:21:00 09:51:52 33
IM Wisconsin 2010-09-12 09:32:03 09:34:28 09:47:54 15
IM Louisville 2010-08-29 09:40:45 09:44:05 09:49:53 11
IM Regensburg 2010-08-01 09:11:55 09:20:06 09:50:52 11
IM Austria 2010-07-04 09:29:03 09:47:46 09:57:03 30
IM Lanzarote 2010-05-22 10:16:55 10:14:47 09:59:20 20
IM Canada 2009-08-30 09:16:22 09:20:50 09:54:33 14
IM Lake Placid 2009-07-26 10:04:22 10:04:48 10:05:51 16
IM Lanzarote 2009-05-23 09:45:36 09:42:36 10:06:21 23
IM Lanzarote 2008-05-24 10:11:43 10:08:57 10:26:38 31
IM Lanzarote 2006-05-20 11:03:01 10:58:11 10:58:11 34

Results for Jens Kaiser ()

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Tomas Mika ()

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Joan Gómez ()

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Florian Kratz ()

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Michael Raelert ()

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Vincent Rieß ()

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Monika Stadlmann (AUT)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM UK 2011-07-31 10:37:06 10:50:16 10:45:42 6
IM Austria 2011-07-03 09:53:56 10:24:36 10:44:24 11
IM Austria 2009-07-05 11:45:45 12:07:40 10:51:58 13
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 10:52:26 10:50:24 10:31:13 37
IM UK 2008-09-07 10:35:27 10:33:48 10:25:44 5
IM France 2008-06-22 10:36:13 10:44:07 10:22:37 7
IM Austria 2007-07-08 10:02:11 10:14:44 10:10:23 10
IM Austria 2006-07-16 09:58:05 10:11:01 10:07:05 12
IM Austria 2005-07-03 10:01:46 10:01:46 10:01:46 7

Results for Heidi Sessner ()

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

IM Cairns 2012 – Analyzing Results

Race Conditions

Compared to last year’s Challenge version (8:29), IM Cairns was a little bit slower (5:23), but it was still a medium-fast race.

Male Results

David Dellow posted the fastest run to win his first IM:

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Actual Time Expected Time
1 David Dellow AUS 00:47:56 04:33:45 02:48:26 08:15:04 08:23:51
2 Cameron Brown NZL 00:50:46 04:30:48 02:56:06 08:22:21 08:23:39
3 Jimmy Johnsen DNK 00:50:37 04:41:29 02:52:32 08:29:36 08:48:14
4 Matty White AUS 00:50:44 04:31:03 03:04:48 08:31:19 08:50:16
5 Petr Vabrousek CZE 00:54:52 04:36:10 03:02:52 08:40:00 08:52:28
6 Leon Griffin AUS 00:50:43 04:31:01 03:13:55 08:40:41 08:58:32
7 Jason Shortis AUS 00:54:10 04:46:45 03:06:58 08:53:25 08:50:52
8 Simon Cochrane NZL 00:54:26 05:01:06 03:01:23 09:02:01 09:12:51
9 Chris McCormack AUS 00:50:05 04:58:10 03:11:10 09:05:12 08:13:46
10 Mitchell Anderson AUS 00:54:45 04:35:09 03:34:39 09:10:18 08:41:49
11 Luke Bell AUS 00:47:52 04:33:54 03:44:11 09:10:18 08:40:05
12 Finnbar Crennan AUS 00:59:27 04:50:52 03:37:05 09:33:16 09:18:16
13 Justin Granger AUS 00:54:55 05:05:46 03:41:25 09:47:42 09:11:27
14 Aaron Farlow AUS 00:50:42 04:41:11 04:39:42 10:17:00 08:38:03

Cameron Brown had another solid race (again improving his rating), even if his result was not quite as spectacular as in Melbourne. He’s got another big race coming up (he’s on the start list for Challenge Roth) – not sure what that will mean for his chances in Kona.

Chris McCormack “just finished” to validate his Kona spot as a recent winner, but he did it in a smart way. He took the bike relatively easy (for him), and then ran a steady marathon, overtaking  all the athletes that were “blowing up”. His result in Cairns is not indicative of his true potential for Kona – but a lot of people will try to derive some meaning from his Cairns result for October.

Female Results

Carrie Lester is also a first time winner, she had to work for it on the run when Belinda Harper refused to give up the fight for the win:

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Actual Time Expected Time
1 Carrie Lester AUS 00:56:31 05:05:20 03:13:52 09:21:00 09:33:43
2 Belinda Harper NZL 00:53:00 05:00:37 03:23:02 09:22:42 10:04:51
3 Candice Hammond NZL 01:00:53 05:07:22 03:10:26 09:24:45 09:47:01
4 Belinda Granger AUS 00:56:51 05:04:41 03:25:20 09:32:16 09:37:34
5 Rebecca Hoschke   01:02:05 05:10:29 03:21:17 09:39:53 n/a
6 Ange Castle   01:13:46 05:41:47 03:33:04 10:36:16 n/a
7 Emi Sakai JPN 01:06:43 05:11:58 04:17:53 10:43:04 10:15:06
8 Amanda McKenzie USA 01:07:03 05:42:05 04:26:47 11:24:12 10:53:42

The other big story in the women’s race was Bek Keat having to drop  early in the run. Apparently, she tore her calf (soleus muscle) and still tried to continue. This does  not sound like it was caused by a too quick bike – but she was racing with Macca and that might have been a bit too much. I hope she gets better soon and manages more satisfying results.

IM Brazil 2012 – Analyzing Results

Race Conditions

Course and conditions were pretty fast in Brazil, the adjustment was 20:38, about the same as last year, resulting in a new course rating of 14:05.

Male Results

Ezequil Morales used a fast run to pull into the lead in the final 10k of the run:

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Actual Time Expected Time
1 Ezequiel Morales ARG 00:50:11 04:34:30 02:57:59 08:22:40 08:39:16
2 Santiago Ascenco BRA 00:48:04 04:26:51 03:10:36 08:25:31 08:20:40
3 Igor Amorelli BRA 00:44:17 04:34:38 03:09:01 08:27:56 n/a
4 Guilherme Manocchio BRA 00:48:02 04:33:12 03:08:21 08:29:35 08:36:25
5 Lucas Cocha ARG 00:47:36 04:32:03 03:10:54 08:30:33 09:22:09
6 Raul Furtado BRA 00:49:57 04:27:29 03:15:01 08:32:27 08:53:10
7 Eduardo Sturla ARG 00:50:03 04:28:50 03:18:02 08:36:55 08:22:06
8 Mario De Elias ARG 00:48:47 04:43:16 03:08:59 08:41:02 08:57:15
9 Andrey Lyatskiy RUS 00:46:08 04:33:01 03:26:07 08:45:16 08:50:25
10 Luiz Francisco Ferreira BRA 00:44:04 04:43:10 03:18:44 08:45:58 09:02:02
11 Oscar Galindez ARG 00:49:50 04:29:18 03:27:03 08:46:11 08:43:34
12 Frank Silvestrin BRA 00:47:14 04:44:02 03:17:21 08:48:37 n/a
13 Thiago Vinhal BRA 00:46:02 04:50:22 03:12:41 08:49:05 n/a
14 Guto Antunes BRA 00:49:53 04:54:46 03:18:20 09:02:59 n/a
15 Hiroyuki Nishiuchi JPN 00:48:07 04:57:08 03:33:22 09:18:37 09:05:11
16 Geovani Muchinski BRA 00:52:39 04:37:11 03:49:04 09:18:54 n/a
17 Christian emiliano Carletto   00:52:33 04:59:45 03:40:12 09:32:30 09:29:22
18 Eneko Elosegui ESP 00:55:57 04:47:37 03:50:07 09:33:41 09:21:45
19 Santiago Amigo ARG 00:54:45 05:02:20 03:39:22 09:36:27 09:39:33
20 Antônio Marcos da souza da silva   00:46:46 04:59:09 04:07:46 09:53:41 n/a
21 Rodrigo Ferreira BRA 00:55:57 05:03:30 04:08:48 10:08:15 n/a
22 Marcio Roniak BRA 01:10:17 05:10:15 04:54:16 11:14:48 n/a

Female Results

On the female side, Sofie Goos won her second IM:

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Actual Time Expected Time
1 Sofie Goos BEL 00:52:42 04:59:24 03:25:36 09:17:42 09:22:08
2 Kim Loeffler USA 01:03:14 05:02:21 03:15:15 09:20:50 09:24:52
3 Vanessa Gianinni BRA 00:52:23 05:02:02 03:29:24 09:23:49 n/a
4 Sara Gross CAN 00:52:29 05:18:36 03:24:03 09:35:08 09:33:24
5 Ariane Monticeli BRA 00:58:51 05:16:04 03:24:40 09:39:35 10:00:02
6 Hillary Biscay USA 00:50:01 05:04:20 03:50:40 09:45:01 09:50:59
7 Maki Nishiuchi JPN 00:52:06 05:02:19 03:58:31 09:52:56 09:59:58
8 Mariana Andrade BRA 00:56:27 05:03:01 03:55:54 09:55:22 10:35:56
9 Ana Lidia Borba BRA 00:52:25 06:21:20 02:58:41 10:12:26 09:38:43
10 Alessandra Carvalho BRA 01:02:02 05:31:45 03:42:36 10:16:23 10:37:48

IM Cairns 2012 – Predictions (Main Post)

If you are looking for additional information on the participants, you can find a full list of their pro results in the detail post.

Previous Results

IM Cairns was held in 2011 as Challenge Cairns, and the race switched to the IM brand after WTC bought the race organizer USM Events. Last year’s race was won by Chris McCormack in 8:15:56 and Rebekah Keat in 9:26:31. The race was medium-quick with a course rating of 8:30, similar to IM France or IM Melbourne. As an Ironman, Cairns is a 2.000 points race with a large purse of 100.000 EUR (more than 130.000 US $).

Male Participants

Last year’s winner Chris McCormack is back to defend his title:

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Chris McCormack AUS 08:10:54 08:18:45 3
2 Cameron Brown NZL 08:20:45 08:28:45 10
3 David Dellow AUS 08:20:58 08:28:59 11
4 Todd Israel AUS 08:33:53 08:42:06 42
5 Aaron Farlow AUS 08:35:03 08:43:17 46
6 Luke Bell AUS 08:37:05 08:45:21 56
7 Luke McKenzie AUS 08:37:19 08:45:35 58
8 Mitchell Anderson AUS 08:38:47 08:47:05 67
9 Scott Neyedli GBR 08:42:32 08:50:53 91
10 Jimmy Johnsen DNK 08:45:10 08:53:34 101
11 Matty White AUS 08:47:12 08:55:38 111
12 Jason Shortis AUS 08:47:48 08:56:14 114
13 Petr Vabrousek CZE 08:49:22 08:57:50 121
14 Leon Griffin AUS 08:55:24 09:03:58 156
15 Bryan Rhodes NZL 09:05:19 09:14:02 226
16 Justin Granger AUS 09:08:16 09:17:02 247
17 Simon Cochrane NZL 09:09:40 09:18:27 268
18 Finnbar Crennan AUS 09:15:07 09:24:00 307
19 Jon Woods n/a unrated n/a
20 Michael Gee n/a unrated n/a

There’s a lot of speculation surrounding Macca, his attempt to qualify for the Olympics, the controversy about the Australian nominations, his potential “backup plan” of switching to IM racing later in the year and his potential lack of long distance fitness.

The winning odds show that Macca is the clear favorite, but that it won’t be an easy win for him and he faces quite a strong field:

  • Chris McCormack: 42%
  • Cameron Brown: 23%
  • Luke Bell: 14%
  • David Dellow: 11%
  • Luke McKenzie: 5%

The field is really strong and deep – notable athletes such as Bryan Rhodes and Justin Granger are only ranked #15 and #16. We know that Macca is under a “long term contract” to race Cairns (i.e. he is paid appearance money), and it seems that fro some others KPR points and price money is not the main reason they compete in Cairns.

Female Participants

As on the men’s side, last year’s winner Rebekah Keat is back to defend her title:

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Rebekah Keat AUS 09:18:59 09:27:55 11
2 Joanna Lawn NZL 09:25:09 09:34:11 20
3 Carrie Lester AUS 09:30:25 09:39:32 36
4 Michelle Mitchell AUS 09:34:04 09:43:15 42
5 Belinda Granger AUS 09:34:13 09:43:24 45
6 Candice Hammond NZL 09:43:37 09:52:57 69
7 Belinda Harper NZL 10:01:22 10:10:59 128
8 Emi Sakai JPN 10:11:32 10:21:19 163
9 Jodie Scott AUS 10:32:25 10:42:32 212
10 Amanda McKenzie USA 10:49:56 11:00:20 244
11 Rebecca Hoschke n/a unrated n/a
12 Melissa Rollison n/a unrated n/a
13 Ange Castle n/a unrated n/a

Bek is coming back from an injury break, so even if she is (Correction: Bek wasn’t injured, in fact she just raced IM Melbourne.)
Bek is the clear favorite, but she will have to deliver a good performance to win the race:

  • Rebekah Keat: 46%
  • Joanna Lawn: 28%
  • Carrie Lester: 9%
  • Belinda Granger: 7%
  • Belinda Harper: 6%
  • Michelle Mitchell: 5%

One other athlete of note is Melissa Rollison (now Hauschildt). The 70.3 world champion will race her first IM in Cairns. It will be interesting to see if she can race smart enough on the bike in order to be able to leverage her run strength. (Update: As noted on Triathlete magazine’s website, she’s got a leg injury and will walk the run in order to validate her Kona slot after winning the 70.3 championships.)

Ages of Kona winners

On the recent IM Talk podcast episode, Bevan and John started a discussion about how old athletes are when they win IM Hawaii. John gave me my next research project …

So, here is the data:

image

The female winners ages are the red squares, the male winners are blue dots.

I’ve highlighted some notable athletes:

  • Sylviane Puntous is the youngest winner (age 22 in 1983).
  • The youngest male winner was Scott Tinley in 1982 (age 25 in 1982).
  • Dave Scott’s first win came at the age of 26 (in 1980). Thomas Hellriegel was also 26 when he won in 1997.
  • Mark Allen’s six wins also stand out.
  • Paula Newby-Fraser’s 8 wins occurred over a span of 10 years (1986 to 1996).
  • Natascha Badmann took 6 wins over 7 years, her reign was broken twice by Lori Bowden.
  • The progression of the recent men’s winners looks like another dynasty, in fact it’s three different athletes (Stadler, McCormack and Alexander) that are almost the same age. Crowie is also the oldest male winner (38 in 2011) – so is it time for the younger generation?
  • The youngest recent winners were Faris Al-Sultan (27 in 2005) and Mirinda Carefrae (29 in 2010).

I couldn’t find the exact birth dates of some of the earlier winners, so if you can help me out, please let me know. Specifically I have no information on Robin Beck, Linda Sweeney and Kathleen McCartney, and only rough information on Gordon Haller, Tom Warren and Joanne Ernst.

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