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Ironman UK 2014 (July 20th) – Predictions

Update (July 17th): Pauk Hawkins tweeted that he won’t be starting and is focused on IM Sweden.

Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2005 Bryan Rhodes (NZL) 08:42:11 Rebecca Preston (AUS) 09:37:56
2006 Frank Heldoorn () 08:36:34 Dede Griesbauer (USA) 09:37:41
2007 Scott Neyedli (GBR) 08:35:57 Bella Bayliss (GBR) 09:36:13
2008 Stephen Bayliss (GBR) 08:53:59 Bella Bayliss (GBR) 09:49:07
2009 Philip Graves (GBR) 08:45:52 Bella Bayliss (GBR) 09:34:00
2010 Fraser Cartmell (GBR) 08:40:18 Yvette Grice (GBR) 10:01:03
2011 Aaron Farlow (AUS) 08:24:34 Kristin Moeller (GER) 09:19:04
2012 Daniel Halksworth (GBR) 08:55:11 Eimear Mullan (IRL) 10:08:44
2013 Daniel Halksworth (GBR) 08:45:48 Lucy Gossage (GBR) 09:29:12

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Daniel Halksworth GBR 00:43:59 04:56:45 03:01:20 08:45:48
2 Stephen Bayliss GBR 00:44:03 04:56:50 03:04:57 08:49:25
3 Joe Skipper GBR 00:49:37 05:00:59 02:57:11 08:51:49

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Lucy Gossage GBR 00:52:30 05:22:13 03:10:22 09:29:12
2 Joanna Carritt GBR 00:55:57 05:40:36 03:24:00 10:05:17
3 Amy Forshaw GBR 00:56:27 05:54:21 03:30:15 10:28:27

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:24:34 Aaron Farlow 2011-07-31
Swim overall 00:43:35 Fraser Cartmell 2010-08-01
Bike overall 04:45:31 Frank Heldoorn 2006-08-16
Run overall 02:41:46 Aaron Farlow 2011-07-31
Total female 09:19:04 Kristin Moeller 2011-07-31
Swim female 00:45:34 Dede Griesbauer 2006-08-16
Bike female 05:19:03 Dede Griesbauer 2006-08-16
Run female 02:41:57 Kristin Moeller 2011-07-31

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM UK is 04:29.

Race Adjustments for IM UK

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Athletes Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2005 n/a n/a n/a n/a 4 n/a n/a n/a n/a
2006 10:29 04:55 04:38 06:03 18 10:29 04:55 04:38 06:03
2007 11:09 03:07 -04:13 10:14 28 10:49 04:01 00:13 08:08
2008 -01:04 01:12 -14:08 04:11 21 06:51 03:05 -04:34 06:49
2009 02:27 -03:07 -10:16 10:41 16 05:45 01:32 -06:00 07:47
2010 01:15 04:32 -24:08 09:31 12 04:51 02:08 -09:37 08:08
2011 10:58 04:43 -14:36 23:11 15 05:52 02:34 -10:27 10:38
2012 -02:46 00:00 -10:21 02:21 8 04:38 02:12 -10:26 09:27
2013 03:23 04:01 -12:25 03:14 13 04:29 02:25 -10:41 08:41

KPR points and Prize Money

IM UK has 2000 KPR points for the winner. It has a total prize purse of 25k$.

Male Race Participants

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating Rank
1 Cyril Viennot FRA 08:34:25 08:38:43 00:50:46 04:45:10 02:57:21 40
2 Kirill Kotshegarov EST 08:43:46 08:48:09 00:52:23 04:41:04 03:05:21 65
3 Stephen Bayliss GBR 08:45:47 08:50:11 00:47:51 04:50:00 03:05:53 73
4 Swen Sundberg GER 08:46:12 08:50:36 00:52:16 04:45:13 03:08:33 75
5 Axel Zeebroek BEL 08:47:48 08:52:13 00:47:10 04:44:01 03:14:18 85
6 Georg Potrebitsch GER 08:48:06 08:52:31 00:48:50 04:51:16 03:11:41 88
7 Mike Aigroz SUI 08:49:57 08:54:23 00:49:07 04:44:19 03:15:41 99
8 Scott Neyedli GBR 08:51:49 08:56:16 00:50:58 04:53:56 03:02:49 109
9 Joe Skipper GBR 08:53:12 08:57:40 00:53:50 04:47:19 03:04:48 114
10 Harry Wiltshire GBR 09:07:11 09:11:46 00:47:17 04:52:27 03:28:43 179
11 Victor Debil-Caux FRA 09:10:44 09:15:20 00:53:39 04:47:55 03:16:49 (194)
12 Darren Jenkins AUS 09:17:03 09:21:43 01:03:40 05:01:31 03:00:36 (209)
13 James Brown GBR 09:21:32 09:26:14 01:01:33 05:01:24 03:13:39 231
14 Paul Hawkins GBR 09:22:41 09:27:23 00:59:08 05:32:08 03:22:42 (235)
15 Anders Wagner DEN 09:23:22 09:28:05 01:03:00 05:00:03 03:03:23 (240)
16 Craig Twigg GBR 09:33:26 09:38:14 00:53:03 04:55:59 03:39:56 282
17 Steve Clark GBR 09:47:44 09:52:39 00:58:38 05:05:36 03:26:28 (341)
Roman Krutina n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
Joerie Vansteelant BEL n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating Rank
1 Katja Konschak GER 09:53:17 09:58:15 00:52:16 05:28:59 03:27:10 89
2 Keiko Tanaka JPN 10:03:06 10:08:09 00:55:50 05:28:50 03:32:19 101
3 Joanna Carritt GBR 10:15:23 10:20:32 01:02:44 05:31:12 03:35:53 132
4 Amy Forshaw GBR 10:32:30 10:37:47 01:03:56 05:38:56 03:39:13 147
5 Laura Bostock GBR 11:39:35 11:45:26 01:02:53 06:15:25 03:53:53 (162)
Tamsin Lewis GBR n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
Lenka Kralova CZE n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

  • Cyril Viennot: 29% (3-1)
  • Mike Aigroz: 20% (4-1)
  • Axel Zeebroek: 16% (5-1)
  • Georg Potrebitsch: 11% (8-1)
  • Stephen Bayliss: 9% (10-1)
  • Swen Sundberg: 5% (19-1)
  • Kirill Kotshegarov: 4% (22-1)
  • Scott Neyedli: 4% (26-1)

Female Race Participants

  • Katja Konschak: 55% (1-1)
  • Keiko Tanaka: 22% (4-1)
  • Joanna Carritt: 18% (5-1)
  • Amy Forshaw: 4% (26-1)

KPR Situation

Men

There is a number of athletes that are able to make it to Kona with a good result in the UK:

  • Axel Zeebroek – 2.790
  • Cyril Viennot – 2.240
  • Harry Wiltshire – 2.080
  • Scott Neyedli – 2.000
  • Stephen Bayliss – 1.690
Remember that the men need about 3.500 points to qualify.

Women

My projected Kona cutoff for the women is 4.900 points, so only Katja Konschak (3.390) in a position to move into a position to qualify.

Challenge Atlantic City – Analyzing Results

Race Conditions

With an adjustment of 16:29, the first edition of Atlantic City was a pretty fast, on a level similar to Melbourne or Brasil.

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected
1 Fredrik Croneborg SWE 00:53:25 04:43:31 02:51:09 08:31:47 -01:19
2 Scott Defilippis USA 00:57:20 04:42:32 02:53:46 08:37:56 -14:47
3 Chris Boudreaux USA 00:54:01 04:34:10 03:07:59 08:40:56 -23:45
4 Dylan McNeice NZL 00:47:24 04:48:04 03:05:53 08:45:09 15:32
5 Thomas Gerlach USA 00:53:10 04:38:18 03:16:00 08:51:28 02:00
6 Chad Holderbaum USA 00:57:14 04:46:33 03:12:40 09:00:13 07:25
7 Petr Vabrousek CZE 01:04:57 04:49:27 03:01:37 09:01:08 19:33
8 Dan Mcintosh USA 00:53:57 04:51:06 03:14:56 09:03:58 06:36
9 Nathan Killam CAN 00:57:09 04:46:12 03:21:52 09:09:26 -10:33
10 Jim Lamastra USA 00:53:58 04:42:45 03:39:22 09:19:59 -07:25
11 John Hirsch USA 00:57:21 05:02:56 03:19:01 09:22:56 -05:35
12 Jeff Paul USA 01:11:05 04:52:20 03:08:10 09:26:29 -15:31
13 Aubrey Aldy USA 01:11:08 05:06:18 03:05:15 09:26:50 -27:46
14 Jeremy Howard USA 00:55:31 05:09:10 03:30:02 09:38:16 n/a
15 Jack Braconnier USA 01:11:19 05:09:56 03:18:09 09:44:43 n/a
16 Arland Macasieb PHI 01:11:04 05:50:28 03:58:34 11:13:43 1:14:41
  Chris McCormack AUS 00:53:14 04:43:31   DNF  
  Ryan Bates USA 00:57:20 04:44:03   DNF  
  Kyle Pawlaczyk USA 00:58:12 04:50:07   DNF  
  Ryan Cain CAN 00:57:19 04:56:11   DNF  
  James Lubinski USA 01:10:47 05:36:14   DNF  
  Simon Malo CAN 01:07:39 05:42:48   DNF  
  Tom Wood USA 00:57:18     DNF  

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected
1 Laurel Wassner USA 00:58:37 05:16:42 03:09:09 09:29:20 -23:39
2 Jacqui Gordon USA 01:05:34 05:10:59 03:33:29 09:54:10 -02:39
3 Natasha Van der Merwe USA 01:08:32 05:12:52 03:32:43 09:58:13 -20:48
4 Alyssa Godesky USA 01:08:02 05:20:34 03:36:12 10:09:25 -17:07
5 Meghan Newcomer USA 01:05:31 05:29:40 03:53:27 10:33:00 24:07

Co-Hosting Multisport News on EndurancePlanet

Yesterday, I spent an hour geeking out with EndurancePlanet host Tawnee Prazak about Ironman Germany, the KPR and lots of other issues in Professional Ironman racing. We both had a great time – and if you like Trirating.com, I’m sure you’ll like to listen to the “Multisport News” that Tawnee released on EndurancePlanet.

EndurancePlanet

If you enjoy listening to podcasts, please consider donating to EndurancePlanet’s Week of Kona to help Tawnee get to Kona so that she can bring you interviews with pros and age-groupers, insider videos, Q&A’s with triathlon celebrities and much more!

Ironman Canada 2014 – Preliminary Start List

This start list is based on the full start list posted on the IM Canada website and – because there was no Pro category information – some name matching. (Translation: There may be additional Pro athletes, and some of the athletes on my list may have already indicated they won’t be starting.)

I have added the current KPR points of the identified athletes in order to determine the influence that the race will have on the KPR ranking. (Canada is on of the three final races before determining the July qualifiers.)

Male Race Participants

Trevor Wurtele is back to defend his title, but he faces strong competition in Marino Vanhoenacker (looking for about 600 remaining KPR points to qualify – a fifth should be enough for him) and Matthew Russell (who should already have enough KPR points).

Bib Name Nation KPR points KPR races
  Tom Evans CAN    
  Stephen Kilshaw CAN 187 1+2
  Matt Lieto USA 35 0+1
  Maurice Maher CAN    
  Devon Palmer USA    
  Matthew Russell USA 3615 5+0 ( 230)
  Josh Seifarth CAN 1 1+0
  Nobuyuki Tanaka JPN    
  Anthony Toth CAN 8 1+1
  Marino Vanhoenacker BEL 2920 1+3 (110)
  Trevor Wurtele CAN 1965 1+3 (400)

Female Race Participants

After her exhausting race in Frankfurt (and enough KPR points) I would be surprised if Mary Beth Ellis raced in Canada. For Bree Wee qualifying is still possible, but she probably needs a win to qualify in July.

Bib Name Nation KPR points KPR races
  Anna Cleaver NZL 205 0+3 (45)
  Mary Beth Ellis USA 6210 2+3 (320)
  Christine Fletcher CAN 60 2+0
  Jennifer Lentzke CAN 145 1+3 (10)
  Jenni Plane USA 90 1+1
  Anna Russell NZL    
  Charlene Waldner CAN    
  Bree Wee USA 3250 3+2 (210)
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