Analysis

Here is my calculation of the KPR at the end of August, deciding the final 10 male and 7 female slots (in addition to the July qualifiers). My results are unofficial, the official results will be posted on the Ironman website at http://eu.ironman.com/triathlon/triathlon-rankings/points-system.aspx (but as far as I can tell shows the same data). I will update this post with new information regarding declined slots and rolldown. For now, the athletes with a rank in brackets (e.g. “(11)”) are outside of the August slots. I will update this post with information about slot declines and rolldowns.

Update Aug 22nd: Annah Watkinson announced that she will decline her slot, it rolls down to Michaela Herlbauer:

Update Aug 23rd: Callum Millward has received a roll-down slot from Chris Leiferman.

Update Aug 26th: All slots have been accepted, there have been no further rolldowns.

Male Slots

Female Slots

The final races for 2016 qualifying are going to be on the upcoming weekend of August 21st. While the last 70.3 at Timberman sees athletes already qualified or too far back, there are a of athletes looking for slots in the final three full-distance Ironman races (Mont Tremblant, Sweden as WPRO only and Copenhagen as MPRO only). The races on August 28th are already part of the 2017 qualifying period. This post looks at the final slots to be decided based on the rankings before the last weekend and the start lists posted on the Ironman website.

After the races are over, I’ll post the unofficial rankings based on my calculations as soon as possible.

Women

Based on the current situation, the first three of the remaining slots will go to Mary Beth Ellis, Saleta Castro and Bianca Steurer.

Here is a table at the athletes currently in the qualifying slots and those that are still able to move into the Top 7 August slots:

(Please note that “Needed” is the minimum result needed for qualifying, however it does not assure a slot when others add points as well.)

Men

The men’s situation is a lot more dynamic. Here’s a table looking at the athletes on the bubble and those that still have a chance to pass Paul Matthews who is currently in the last qualifying spot:

(Please note that “Needed” is the minimum result needed for qualifying, however it does not assure a slot when others add points as well.)

On Wednesday, July 27th Ironman sent out a “Pro Membership Update” email to their professional athletes. (A big thank you to the athletes who forwarded their emails to me or posted it online.) Among a number of smaller changes there are also going to be changes to the Kona Pro Ranking, starting with Kona 2017 qualifying. This post has a closer look at the changes and their implications.

KPR Changes

Here’s the section of the email that’s relevant to Kona Qualiying:

2017 – KPR SCORING:
The scoring structure will adjust to be calculated using an athletes FOUR (4) highest scoring events. The KPR will be calculated using the Kona Points from no more than two (2) Ironman® 70.3®-Branded Kona-Qualifying Races and no more than three (3) Ironman®-Branded Kona-Qualifying Races.

Here is the corresponding section in the current KPR rules as posted on the Ironman website:

A Pro Athlete’s KPR is calculated using the athlete’s five (5) highest scoring Kona-Qualifying Races.

KPRs are calculated using the Kona Points from no more than three (3) Ironman® 70.3®-Branded Kona-Qualifying Races and no more than three (3) Ironman®-Branded Kona-Qualifying Races.

Comparing the two rules, the changes are as follows:

• Instead of five races only four will be included in the total score.
• The total score can include only two 70.3 instead of three.

Impact

I have re-run the July 2016 qualifying cycle with the new rules for calculating the total score of an athlete. Assuming that the athletes would have decided on the same racing schedules under the new rules, these are the changes that would have occurred:

• The men’s July cutoff would have been at 3.490 points instead of 3.620 points.
• The only male athlete not qualifying under the new rules would have been Trevor Wurtele, his total would have been reduced from 3.725 to 3.100 as the lowest scoring of his three good 70.3s would have been removed. Instead Bertrand Billard would have qualified, he had only four races in his total which therefore would have been unchanged at 3.490.
• The female cutoff would have occurred at 4.095 instead of 4.490 points.
• As on the male side, there would have been one different qualifier: Instead of Alexandra Tondeur with three 70.3s a slot would have gone to Carrie Lester with four scoring races.

Based on this simulation the changes are relatively small:

• The cutoff is reduced, but qualifying with only one or two Ironman races is still quite hard. Unless you can score major points in Kona, racing (at least) three Ironman races is still required in order to qualify.
• Reducing the number of races in the total further increases the reward for racing well and finishing on the podium.
• The number of points from 70.3 races is reduced, therefore Ironman racing becomes more important for Kona qualifying (as should be the case).

In my eyes these rule changes don’t address the main concern about the KPR: Requiring frequent racing on the Ironman distance (especially for the women) tires athletes and increases the risk for injuries, and often athletes can’t show their best races in Kona. Nonetheless, the changes are in the right direction and my overall my assessment of these rule changes is positive.

Here is my calculation of the KPR at the end of July, deciding 40 male and 28 female slots (in addition to the Automatic Qualifiers). My results are unofficial, the official results will be posted on the Ironman website at http://eu.ironman.com/triathlon/triathlon-rankings/points-system.aspx (but as far as I can tell shows the same data). I do not count AQs and athletes that haven’t validated my rankings, therefore it is a bit easier to determine the Top 40 male and Top 28 females. I will update this post with new information regarding declined slots and rolldown. For now, the athletes with a rank in brackets (e.g. “(42)”) are outside of the July slots. I will update this post with information about slot declines and rolldowns.

There is another cutoff in August, adding another 10 male and 7 female slots. Once the field has been completed, I will work on this year’s version of the Kona Rating Report, looking at the field and each athlete’s chances for a good result. The free report will be released in time before the Kona race, you can already pre-order your copy.

Update July 28th: The first rolldown has happened: Carrie Lester is now marked as a qualifier as well. It’s unclear who has declined her slot, I have marked the female qualifiers without a “Q” on the Ironman site with a question mark. (So even though Carrie is still ranked 29th in my table, she did get a slot.)   So far there is no indication for a rolldown on the men’s side.

Update July 29th: It is now clear that the slot that rolled down to Carrie was declined by Michelle Bremer. I’ve added a “D” to her name and adjusted the other ranks accordingly.

Update August 2nd: All male slots have been sorted. One slot rolled down to Jens Petersen-Bach, as far as I can tell Matt  Trautmann had to decline his slot. All other slots have been accepted.

Update August 3rd: One more slot rolled on the female side, Emma Balham declined and Jodie Robertson accepted the roll-down slot. All July slots on the female side are finalized as well.

Update August 3rd: Just when everything seemed clear, Beth Gerdes declined her slot (details on her blog), and another slot rolled down to Dimity-Lee Duke.

Male KPR Rankings

Female KPR Rankings

Update July 20th: In the latest startlists a few names have been removed. I have crossed them out in the tables below.

The race for the first round of Professional Kona slots is almost over – the July qualifying period that decides 28 female and 40 male slots ends on July 24th. There are only three more Ironman races (Switzerland, Lake Placid as WPRO only and Whistler as MPRO only) and one more 70.3 race (Calgary) before the first cutoff. This post looks at the final slots to be decided based on the rankings before the last weekend and the start lists posted on the Ironman website.

After the races are over, I’ll post the unofficial rankings based on my calculations as soon as possible. (The women’s ranking is already up.)

Women’s Qualifying

Assuming that Heather Jackson validates her slot by finishing in Lake Placid, Ariane Monticelli is currently in the last points qualifying spot. Here’s a table looking at the athletes close the cutoff and those on the startlists with a chance to overtake her:

(Please note that “Needed” is the minimum result needed for qualifying, however it does not assure a slot when others add points as well.)

With Daniela Ryf also on the start line in Zürich, here’s my best guess at who is going to receive one of the open five July slots:

• Verena Walter remains in the Top 28 (1). (It is possible but quite unlikely for her to drop out of the Top 28.)
• Jodie Robertson should be able to finish at least in the Top 10 in Lake Placid 3 in Calgary (2).
• Zürich is the race with the most athletes looking for slots, with probably two athletes racing well enough for a slot – possibly Ariane Monticelli and one of Emma, Kristin and Natascha (3 & 4).
• The last slot would then go to Alexandra Tondeur – but she could be overtaken when more of the Zürich athletes finish well (5).

This would mean that Beth Gerdes and Carrie Lester would drop out of the July slots and that they would have to hope for a rolldown slot.

Men’s Qualifying

Assuming that Andy Potts validates his slot by finishing in Lake Placid, David Plese is currently in the last points qualifying spot. Here’s a table looking at the athletes close the cutoff and those on the startlists with a chance to overtake him:

Based on the available start lists, here’s my best guess at who is going to receive one of the open ten July slots:

• The athletes currently in #31 to #34 (Andrej, Ivan, Denis and Per) will remain in the Top 40
  (1 to 4).
• Three of the Whistler athletes will finish well enough for a slot – maybe Callum, Pedro and Viktor Mike (5 to 7).
• At least two of the Zürich athletes will finish well. If I had to pick two, I’d go with Ronnie Schildknecht and Timo Bracht (8 and 9).
• The last slot should be decided Jens Petersen-Bach and one other Zürich athlete (10).

But there are so many different scenarios that it’s still possible for any of the athletes in the above table to get a slot or drop out of the slot ranks– it’ll be exciting racing on Sunday!