IM Copenhagen

IM Copenhagen is one of the final races before the August cutoff for Kona Pro Qualifying. I have analyzed the situation for August Pro qualifying – who is currently in, who can still make it?

Previous Winners

Year	Male Winner	Time	Female Winner	Time
2010	Tim Van Berkel (AUS)	08:07:39	Rebekah Keat (AUS)	08:54:36
2011	Tim Van Berkel (AUS)	08:11:15	Rebekah Keat (AUS)	08:52:42
2012	Aaron Farlow (AUS)	08:20:09	Camilla Pedersen (DEN)	09:12:27
2013	Jens Petersen-Bach (DEN)	08:12:41	Eva Wutti (AUT)	08:37:36
2014	Henrik Hyldelund (DEN)	08:03:39	Daniela Ryf (SUI)	08:53:33
2015	Guilherme Manocchio (BRA)	08:14:56	Michelle Vesterby (DEN)	08:59:49
2016	Patrik Nilsson (SWE)	07:49:18
2017			Michelle Vesterby (DEN)	09:00:19

Last TOP 3

Here are the links to the full result analysis from 2017 (WPRO) and from 2016 which was the last men’s Pro race.

Female Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Michelle Vesterby	DEN	00:53:02	04:48:02	03:15:05	09:00:19
2	Corinne Abraham	GBR	01:00:21	04:53:20	03:09:51	09:08:06
3	Sofie Goos	BEL	01:00:15	05:00:41	03:11:14	09:17:17

Male Race Results 2016

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Patrik Nilsson	SWE	00:47:53	04:14:15	02:43:14	07:49:18
2	Will Clarke	GBR	00:47:46	04:24:33	02:43:16	07:59:31
3	Fabio Carvalho	BRA	00:47:51	04:14:50	02:59:35	08:07:10

Course Records

Leg	Gender	Record	Athlete	Date
Total	overall	07:49:18	Patrik Nilsson	2016-08-21
Swim	overall	00:45:22	Stephen Bayliss	2011-08-01
Bike	overall	04:13:57	Andreas Raelert	2016-08-21
Run	overall	02:38:58	Mads Vittrup	2011-08-01
Total	female	08:37:36	Eva Wutti	2013-08-18
Swim	female	00:48:29	Ann Lønnberg	2011-08-01
Bike	female	04:39:58	Eva Wutti	2013-08-18
Run	female	03:00:51	Eva Wutti	2013-08-18

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Copenhagen is 20:11.

Race Adjustments for IM Copenhagen

Year	Adjustment	Swim Adj.	Bike Adj.	Run Adj.	# of Finishers	Rating	Swim Rating	Bike Rating	Run Rating
2010	32:51	01:36	09:50	10:46	24	32:51	01:36	09:50	10:46
2011	27:13	03:10	12:54	06:04	28	30:02	02:23	11:22	08:25
2012	17:57	02:36	12:46	03:30	19	26:00	02:27	11:50	06:47
2013	27:32	01:24	17:07	05:30	30	26:23	02:12	13:09	06:28
2014	15:53	01:54	10:06	01:43	27 of 35	24:17	02:08	12:32	05:31
2015	14:04	01:27	15:23	01:47	26 of 30	22:35	02:01	13:01	04:53
2016	10:41	01:26	20:10	-00:48	21 of 28	20:53	01:56	14:02	04:05
2017	15:20	-00:30	15:59	04:48	7 of 8	20:11	01:38	14:17	04:10

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Copenhagen is an MPRO-only, P-2000 race. It has a total prize purse of 40.000 US$, paying 10 deep.

Male Race Participants

The strength of the field is 20% of a typical Kona field.

#	Bib	Name	Nat	Expected	Rating	ESwim	EBike	ET2	ERun	Consistency	Overall
1	22	Tim Don	GBR	07:54:16	08:18:42	00:46:12	04:14:21	05:05:32	02:48:44	43% +33% -24% (5)	(11)
2	2	Boris Stein	GER	08:02:54	08:20:56	00:51:31	04:16:20	05:12:51	02:50:03	80% +20% -0% (9)	16
3	1	Clemente Alonso McKernan	ESP	08:03:45	08:25:02	00:46:45	04:24:47	05:16:32	02:47:13	58% +7% -35% (16)	24
4	53	Jesper Svensson	SWE	08:04:12	08:35:40	00:45:23	04:20:37	05:11:00	02:53:12	n/a (1 IM Pro race)	(66)
5	57	Cameron Wurf	AUS	08:06:54	08:26:29	00:49:36	04:09:19	05:03:56	03:02:58	72% +22% -6% (14)	29
6	23	Marc Duelsen	GER	08:10:32	08:30:54	00:49:24	04:24:24	05:18:47	02:51:45	93% +0% -7% (13)	49
7	51	Stefan Schmid	GER	08:10:55	08:30:33	00:50:47	04:25:31	05:21:18	02:49:37	62% +17% -21% (17)	46
8	3	Cyril Viennot	FRA	08:10:58	08:28:47	00:49:25	04:26:51	05:21:17	02:49:41	59% +6% -35% (23)	41
9	7	Jens Petersen-Bach	DEN	08:13:31	08:35:33	00:49:01	04:31:38	05:25:40	02:47:51	56% +10% -34% (22)	64
10	11	Johann Ackermann	GER	08:13:58	08:43:43	00:46:50	04:20:33	05:12:24	03:01:34	64% +0% -36% (12)	86
11	32	Kristian Hoegenhaug	DEN	08:14:14	08:42:30	00:53:21	04:19:35	05:17:55	02:56:19	100% +0% -0% (2)	(83)
12	5	Giulio Molinari	ITA	08:15:08	08:32:04	00:47:08	04:23:25	05:15:33	02:59:35	100% +0% -0% (5)	57
13	34	Philipp Koutny	SUI	08:16:07	08:43:14	00:49:00	04:24:23	05:18:22	02:57:45	47% +14% -40% (11)	85
14	9	Thiago Vinhal	BRA	08:17:36	08:38:04	00:47:57	04:33:22	05:26:20	02:51:16	65% +30% -4% (16)	76
15	26	Markus Fachbach	GER	08:18:15	08:46:33	00:48:32	04:27:17	05:20:49	02:57:26	47% +0% -53% (23)	92
16	55	Andrej Vistica	CRO	08:18:39	08:37:32	00:53:05	04:30:02	05:28:08	02:50:31	93% +0% -7% (17)	75
17	12	Michael Patrick Alonso Mckernan	ESP	08:21:09	08:54:35	00:52:53	04:21:15	05:19:09	03:02:00	-0% +42% -58% (3)	(130)
18	41	Sebastian Neef	GER	08:21:26	09:01:32	00:50:23	04:21:50	05:17:14	03:04:12	15% +24% -61% (4)	(156)
19	6	Esben Hovgaard	DEN	08:21:41	08:54:45	00:51:09	04:29:26	05:25:35	02:56:06	44% +22% -35% (13)	131
20	27	Chris Fischer	DEN	08:22:41	08:46:02	00:52:54	04:30:31	05:28:26	02:54:15	69% +4% -26% (10)	90
21	13	Victor Arroyo Bugallo	ESP	08:23:15	08:55:58	00:54:35	04:34:19	05:33:54	02:49:21	n/a (1 IM Pro race)	(137)
22	8	Daniil Sapunov	UKR	08:24:57	08:48:36	00:47:11	04:35:46	05:27:57	02:57:00	76% +5% -18% (12)	101
23	30	Pedro Gomes	POR	08:27:19	08:50:32	00:50:42	04:37:25	05:33:06	02:54:13	50% +0% -50% (33)	110
24	48	Michael Ruenz	GER	08:27:29	08:55:59	00:54:46	04:36:10	05:35:56	02:51:33	61% +0% -39% (14)	137
25	43	Andreas Niedrig	GER	08:30:48	09:15:35	00:46:30	04:23:27	05:14:57	03:15:51	28% +19% -53% (15)	(196)
26	35	Markus Liebelt	GER	08:34:19	09:20:09	00:53:24	04:28:26	05:26:50	03:07:29	23% +0% -77% (3)	(206)
27	44	Sebastian Norberg	SWE	08:35:00	09:05:46	00:54:07	04:33:33	05:32:40	03:02:20	35% +39% -26% (3)	(167)
28	4	Nick Baldwin	SEY	08:35:34	09:01:29	00:51:51	04:34:30	05:31:22	03:04:12	65% +0% -35% (22)	155
29	38	Philipp Mock	GER	08:37:20	09:08:30	00:56:55	04:26:03	05:27:58	03:09:22	100% +0% -0% (2)	(176)
30	29	Jacob Frandsen	DEN	08:41:31	09:06:52	00:54:47	04:31:11	05:30:58	03:10:33	85% +0% -15% (5)	(168)
31	10	Jonas Oerarbaeck	SWE	08:44:36	09:24:17	00:58:40	04:41:30	05:45:10	02:59:26	39% +0% -61% (2)	(225)
32	50	Mike Schifferle	SUI	08:45:11	09:19:47	00:58:28	04:37:30	05:40:58	03:04:13	78% +6% -16% (74)	202
33	40	Urs Mueller	SUI	08:45:17	09:14:19	00:51:14	04:35:53	05:32:07	03:13:10	51% +13% -36% (9)	192
34	54	Sanne Swolfs	BEL	08:46:13	09:20:25	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	52% +0% -48% (2)	(207)
35	16	Morten Banke	DEN	08:46:32	09:20:46	00:57:10	04:42:49	05:44:59	03:01:33	n/a (1 IM Pro race)	(210)
36	39	Vincent Morizot	FRA	08:52:21	09:26:56	00:52:00	04:33:38	05:30:38	03:21:43	n/a (1 IM Pro race)	(229)
37	45	Stefan Overmars	NED	08:56:02	09:25:38	00:53:12	04:36:58	05:35:10	03:20:52	71% +0% -29% (4)	(226)
38	36	Michael Louys	BEL	08:57:43	09:42:37	01:00:44	04:42:07	05:47:51	03:09:52	33% +5% -62% (14)	(254)
39	28	Rasmus Fitzner	DEN	08:57:54	09:32:52	00:53:54	04:49:25	05:48:18	03:09:36	40% +0% -60% (3)	(239)
40	20	Bekim Christensen	DEN	08:58:44	09:31:46	01:00:02	04:37:41	05:42:42	03:16:02	20% +19% -61% (7)	235
41	56	Frederik Waer	BEL	09:00:06	09:35:12	01:05:54	04:47:05	05:58:00	03:02:06	n/a (1 IM Pro race)	(247)
42	25	Olivier Esser	BEL	09:03:35	09:27:53	00:52:45	04:48:53	05:46:38	03:16:57	75% +0% -25% (4)	231
43	19	Vinicius Canhedo	BRA	09:03:57	09:50:57	00:49:43	04:45:53	05:40:36	03:23:21	24% +0% -76% (4)	(264)
44	15	Mads Bang Jensen	DEN	09:04:48	09:46:33	00:54:07	04:49:40	05:48:48	03:16:00	45% +55% -0% (2)	(260)
45	37	Dennis Matzen	DEN	09:08:33	09:44:12	00:54:32	04:53:16	05:52:48	03:15:45	n/a (1 IM Pro race)	(258)
46	18	Anthony Cadario	FRA	09:11:31	09:47:21	00:54:47	04:57:37	05:57:24	03:14:07	n/a (1 IM Pro race)	(260)
47	24	Patrik Ericsson	SWE	09:14:40	09:50:42	00:48:19	04:32:09	05:25:28	03:49:12	62% +0% -38% (2)	(263)
48	14	Dirk Baelus	BEL	09:18:09	09:43:04	00:55:49	04:51:34	05:52:24	03:25:45	71% +0% -29% (5)	255
49	47	Lukas Polan	CZE	09:21:23	09:53:51	01:00:02	04:59:51	06:04:53	03:16:30	50% +13% -36% (17)	265
50	33	Aleksander Kochetkov	LTU	10:30:57	11:11:58	01:07:00	05:26:56	06:38:56	03:52:01	n/a (1 IM Pro race)	(290)
	42	Marek Nemcik	SVK	10:55:50	unrated	01:10:39	05:21:55	06:37:34	04:18:16	35% +20% -45% (47)	n/a
	17	Mihai Baractaru	ROM	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (1 IM Pro race)	(n/a)
	31	Kristian Hindkjaer	DEN	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (no IM Pro race)	(n/a)
	49	Imanol Sagarzazu	ESP	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (1 IM Pro race)	(n/a)
	52	Thomas Hansen	DEN	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (no IM Pro race)	(n/a)

There are quite a few athletes who have already secured their Kona slots and are unlikely to race (e.g. Philipp Koutny, Marc Duelsen, Thiago Vinhal). Cameron Wurf and Jens Petersen-Bach are also safe but it’s unclear if they want to race another Ironman before Kona.

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

• Clemente Alonso McKernan: 36% (2-1)
• Tim Don: 33% (2-1)
• Boris Stein: 12% (7-1)
• Cameron Wurf: 5% (21-1)
• Marc Duelsen: 4% (25-1)
• Stefan Schmid: 3% (33-1)
• Jens Petersen-Bach: 3% (38-1)
• Jesper Svensson: 2% (39-1)

Male Race Participants

Name	Nation	KPR points	KPR races
Boris Stein	GER	3920	1+2 (3100/320)
Tyler Butterfield	BMU	3165	2+1
Nick Baldwin	SEY	2820	2+1
David Plese	SLO	2455	3+1 (385/255)
Cyril Viennot	FRA	2060	1+2 (1280/280)
Johann Ackermann	GER	1905	2+2 (685/220)
Daniil Sapunov	UKR	1305	2+2 (70/180)
Michael Patrick Alonso Mckernan	ESP	960	1+0
Pedro Gomes	POR	785	2+2 (170/30)
Philipp Mock	GER	785	1+2 (685/35)
Michael Ruenz	GER	616	2+1
Vinicius Canhedo	BRA	460	0+2 (0/220)
Victor Arroyo Bugallo	ESP	405	1+0
Vincent Morizot	FRA	190	1+2 (40/35)
Stefan Overmars	NED	190	0+2 (0/55)
Mike Schifferle	SUI	155	3+0 (30/0)
Markus Liebelt	GER	135	0+1
Bekim Christensen	DEN	110	2+0
Morten Banke	DEN	60	1+0
Anthony Cadario	FRA	42	0+2 (0/7)
Lukas Polan	CZE	10	1+2 (3/2)
Olivier Esser	BEL	8	1+0
Thomas Hansen	DEN	5	0+1
Rasmus Fitzner	DEN	3	1+0
Clemente Alonso McKernan	ESP	0	0+0
Esben Hovgaard	DEN	0	0+0
Aleksander Kochetkov	LTU	0	0+0
Andreas Niedrig	GER	0	0+0
Imanol Sagarzazu	ESP	0	0+0
Mihai Baractaru	ROM

Race Conditions

As is typical for Copenhagen, the bike course was pretty fast (adjustment of 15:59), also leading to quick overall times – Michelle Vesterby just missed going sub-9. With a course rating of 20:11 Copenhagen continues to be one of the quickest courses on the calendar.

Female Race Results

Michelle Vesterby was leading the race from wire to wire: She posted the fastest swim and bike legs, having a lead of nearly 15 minutes in T2. As Kona is already on the horizon, she probably didn’t push all that hard on the run, still winning by eight minutes. Second place went to Corinne Abraham who also had a good, sub-5 bike ride. She posted the fastest marathon of the day but couldn’t challenge Michelle for the leading position. After loosing her 2016 season with injuries she suffered from being attacked during one of her training runs, Sofie Goos had a satisfying third place finish.

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time	Diff to exp.	Prize Money	KPR Points
1	Michelle Vesterby	DEN	00:53:02	04:48:02	03:15:05	09:00:19	-05:05	US$ 15,000	2000
2	Corinne Abraham	GBR	01:00:21	04:53:20	03:09:51	09:08:06	02:26	US$ 7,500	1600
3	Sofie Goos	BEL	01:00:15	05:00:41	03:11:14	09:17:17	00:14	US$ 5,000	1280
4	Camilla Lindholm Borg	SWE	01:07:02	04:58:06	03:11:37	09:22:46	-04:44	US$ 3,250	960
5	Alyssa Godesky	USA	01:01:13	05:11:00	03:14:47	09:33:20	-15:00	US$ 2,750	720
6	Pia Nielsen Englyst	DEN	01:01:12	05:12:46	03:19:36	09:38:37	-28:24	US$ 2,000	540
7	Julia Montgomery	SWE	01:07:57	05:30:58	03:38:50	10:24:04	08:05	US$ 1,500	405
	Jeanne Collonge	FRA	01:00:25	05:14:27		DNF

Update Aug 17th: Pamela Tastets has written on Instagram that she won’t be racing.

Previous Winners

Year	Male Winner	Time	Female Winner	Time
2010	Tim Van Berkel (AUS)	08:07:39	Rebekah Keat (AUS)	08:54:36
2011	Tim Van Berkel (AUS)	08:11:15	Rebekah Keat (AUS)	08:52:42
2012	Aaron Farlow (AUS)	08:20:09	Camilla Pedersen (DEN)	09:12:27
2013	Jens Petersen-Bach (DEN)	08:12:41	Eva Wutti (AUT)	08:37:36
2014	Henrik Hyldelund (DEN)	08:03:39	Daniela Ryf (SUI)	08:53:33
2015	Guilherme Manocchio (BRA)	08:14:56	Michelle Vesterby (DEN)	08:59:49
2016	Patrik Nilsson (SWE)	07:49:18

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Patrik Nilsson	SWE	00:47:53	04:14:15	02:43:14	07:49:18
2	Will Clarke	GBR	00:47:46	04:24:33	02:43:16	07:59:31
3	Fabio Carvalho	BRA	00:47:51	04:14:50	02:59:35	08:07:10

Course Records

Leg	Gender	Record	Athlete	Date
Total	overall	07:49:18	Patrik Nilsson	2016-08-21
Swim	overall	00:45:22	Stephen Bayliss	2011-08-01
Bike	overall	04:13:57	Andreas Raelert	2016-08-21
Run	overall	02:38:58	Mads Vittrup	2011-08-01
Total	female	08:37:36	Eva Wutti	2013-08-18
Swim	female	00:48:29	Ann Lønnberg	2011-08-01
Bike	female	04:39:58	Eva Wutti	2013-08-18
Run	female	03:00:51	Eva Wutti	2013-08-18

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Copenhagen is 20:53.

Race Adjustments for IM Copenhagen

Year	Adjustment	Swim Adj.	Bike Adj.	Run Adj.	# of Finishers	Rating	Swim Rating	Bike Rating	Run Rating
2010	32:51	01:36	09:50	10:46	24	32:51	01:36	09:50	10:46
2011	27:13	03:10	12:54	06:04	28	30:02	02:23	11:22	08:25
2012	17:57	02:36	12:46	03:30	19	26:00	02:27	11:50	06:47
2013	27:32	01:24	17:07	05:30	30	26:23	02:12	13:09	06:28
2014	15:53	01:54	10:06	01:43	27 of 35	24:17	02:08	12:32	05:31
2015	14:04	01:27	15:23	01:47	26 of 30	22:35	02:01	13:01	04:53
2016	10:41	01:26	20:10	-00:48	21 of 28	20:53	01:56	14:02	04:05

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Copenhagen is a P-2000 race. It is a WPRO-only race and has a total prize purse of 40.000 US$.

Female Race Participants

The strength of the field is 11% of a typical Kona field.

Rank	Bib	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Exp. Swim	Exp. Bike	Exp. T2	Exp. Run	Consistency	Overall
1	1	Michelle Vesterby	DEN	08:57:47	09:20:44	00:50:30	04:51:49	05:47:19	03:10:28	84% +2% -14% (21)	17
2	4	Corinne Abraham	GBR	09:00:00	09:21:14	00:56:55	04:55:35	05:57:30	03:02:30	93% +7% -0% (12)	18
3	2	Sofie Goos	BEL	09:03:02	09:32:52	00:55:24	04:54:41	05:55:05	03:07:57	68% +13% -19% (25)	37
4	10	Celine Schaerer *	SUI	09:14:56	09:42:18	00:49:26	05:04:58	05:59:24	03:15:32	77% +0% -23% (10)	52
5	14	Kristin Moeller *	GER	09:15:58	09:39:38	01:00:55	05:10:02	06:15:57	03:00:01	76% +6% -18% (24)	47
6	3	Camilla Lindholm Borg	SWE	09:17:01	09:49:19	01:05:17	04:57:03	06:07:20	03:09:41	55% +18% -27% (17)	(67)
7	11	Pamela Tastets	CHI	09:19:33	09:45:45	00:55:35	05:00:49	06:01:24	03:18:09	100% +0% -0% (3)	58
8	5	Jeanne Collonge *	FRA	09:20:12	09:48:15	00:57:09	04:57:39	05:59:48	03:20:24	72% +3% -25% (12)	63
9	9	Darbi Roberts *	USA	09:23:16	09:54:59	00:52:05	05:07:23	06:04:28	03:18:48	50% +0% -50% (8)	76
10	12	Verena Walter *	GER	09:23:52	09:49:26	00:58:11	05:00:04	06:03:16	03:20:36	64% +28% -8% (8)	67
11	6	Alyssa Godesky	USA	09:40:00	10:10:40	00:58:47	05:15:49	06:19:36	03:20:24	70% +22% -8% (18)	101
12	8	Pia Nielsen Englyst	DEN	10:02:20	10:42:20	01:03:45	05:30:12	06:38:57	03:23:23	n/a (1 IM Pro race)	(153)
13	7	Julia Montgomery	SWE	10:12:17	10:46:26	01:04:49	05:17:01	06:26:51	03:45:26	100% +0% -0% (2)	(154)

Note: Athletes with a ‘*’ are also registered for another race within 8 days.

Winning Odds

Female Race Participants

• Michelle Vesterby: 44% (1-1)
• Corinne Abraham: 26% (3-1)
• Sofie Goos: 21% (4-1)
• Camilla Lindholm Borg: 6% (16-1)
• Celine Schaerer: 2% (64-1)

Kona Qualifying

Michelle Vesterby, Celine Schwerer and also very likely Corinne Abraham have already qualified in July. But there are a few others that can still qualify in August with a good result in Copenhagen:

• Kristin Moeller should be okay with a fifth place finish, she has also registered for a number of other races.
• Jeanne Collonge needs at least a podium finish to improve her total.
• Pamela Tastets and Darbi Roberts will need at least a second place to have a reasonable chance for an August slot.

Updated July 26th: Added Corinne Abraham, Sofie Goos, Julia Montgomery, Darbi Roberts and Verena Walter

Female Race Participants

Name	Nation	KPR points	KPR races
Michelle Vesterby	DEN	8005	3+0 (1280/0)
Corinne Abraham	GBR	4400	3+1 (960/240)
Kristin Moeller	GER	4180	3+1 (340/435)
Jeanne Collonge	FRA	3910	3+1 (960/280)
Tine Holst	DEN	3035	3+1 (340/400)
Celine Schaerer	SUI	3000	3+1 (515/345)
Darbi Roberts	USA	2755	3+0 (215/0)
Alyssa Godesky	USA	1530	2+1
Pia Englyst	DEN	405	1+0
Camilla Lindholm Borg	SWE	400	0+1
Verena Walter	GER	340	1+0
Julia Montgomery	SWE	305	1+0
Sofie Goos	BEL	0	0+0