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IM Copenhagen

Ironman Copenhagen 2018 – Analyzing Results

IMCPHCourse Conditions

Copenhagen 2018 was one of the fastest editions on this course, the adjustment of 26:11 was quite a bit faster than the new course rating of 20:51. Especially the bike was quick this year, Kristian Hoegenhaug was just over a minute outside the bike course record by Andi Raelert from 2016. The deep field made for interesting racing, even if we didn’t see any new course records.

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to exp. Prize Money KPR Points
1 Cyril Viennot FRA 00:49:14 04:18:50 02:47:28 07:59:52 -05:39 US$ 15,000 2000
2 Kristian Hoegenhaug DEN 00:51:48 04:15:01 02:51:11 08:02:53 -05:54 US$ 7,500 1600
3 Giulio Molinari ITA 00:49:06 04:18:55 02:53:40 08:05:56 -02:34 US$ 5,000 1280
4 Boris Stein GER 00:49:17 04:18:53 02:57:35 08:10:51 13:43 US$ 3,250 960
5 Markus Fachbach GER 00:49:12 04:19:40 03:00:28 08:14:32 00:49 US$ 2,750 720
6 Johann Ackermann GER 00:45:54 04:28:50 02:56:02 08:15:47 06:25 US$ 2,000 540
7 Chris Fischer DEN 00:51:50 04:19:20 03:02:18 08:19:14 02:36 US$ 1,500 405
8 Nick Baldwin SEY 00:50:21 04:27:09 02:58:46 08:22:18 -09:29 US$ 1,250 305
9 Sebastian Norberg SWE 00:52:00 04:25:40 03:03:21 08:25:25 -05:06 US$ 1,000 230
10 Kristian Hindkjaer DEN 00:50:25 04:21:26 03:19:14 08:36:45 n/a US$ 750 170
11 Vinicius Canhedo BRA 00:50:22 04:41:26 03:00:37 08:38:52 -18:15   120
12 Rasmus Fitzner DEN 00:52:05 04:33:52 03:13:26 08:44:47 -05:47   85
13 Mads Bang Jensen DEN 00:55:06 04:47:28 03:02:46 08:51:46 -17:27   60
14 Dirk Baelus BEL 00:55:08 04:37:50 03:14:16 08:52:38 -18:51   40
15 Jonas Oerarbaeck SWE 00:56:56 04:46:45 03:04:22 08:53:01 16:36   30
16 Olivier Esser BEL 00:52:03 04:44:36 03:11:26 08:53:11 -03:13   20
17 Dennis Matzen DEN 00:51:44 04:42:31 03:14:35 08:53:38 -07:31   15
18 Michael Louys BEL 01:02:33 04:34:33 03:10:38 08:53:52 -07:25   10
19 Marijn De Jonge NED 00:52:04 04:41:14 03:27:47 09:07:16 -01:58   8
20 Anthony Cadario FRA 00:55:11 04:56:45 03:11:48 09:09:09 05:41   5
21 Marek Nemcik SVK 01:10:22 05:40:18 04:16:55 11:14:23 -00:49   3
  Clemente Alonso McKernan ESP 00:45:59 04:16:37   DNF      
  Tim Don GBR 00:45:56 04:22:38   DNF      
  Markus Liebelt GER 00:51:57 04:17:59   DNF      
  Bekim Christensen DEN 00:55:12 04:24:06   DNF      
  Morten Banke DEN 00:55:01 04:31:31   DNF      
  Stefan Overmars NED 00:51:54 04:41:56   DNF      
  Mihai Baractaru ROM 00:59:33 05:03:03   DNF      
  Sebastian Neef GER 00:49:07 05:19:46   DNF      
  Daniil Sapunov UKR 00:49:14 05:27:13   DNF      
  Jesper Svensson SWE 00:45:54     DNF      
  Jens Petersen-Bach DEN 00:49:10     DNF      
  Michael Patrick Alonso Mckernan ESP 00:52:09     DNF      
  Jacob Frandsen DEN 00:55:09     DNF      
  Imanol Sagarzazu ESP 00:56:51     DNF      

Kona Qualifying

Boris Stein, Cyril Viennot and Giulio Molinari have secured their Kona slots. Nick Baldwin has to wait for the Mont Tremblant results, Tim Don has dropped out of the Top 10 August ranks. For details on qualifying, have a look at my updated post on “Kona 2018 Pro Qualifying”.

Tim Don before IM Copenhagen

TimDonFinishAnyone who has ever reached a difficult goal such as finishing an Ironman knows that crossing the finish line can be quite intense, often with a number of conflicting feelings. Tim Don wasn’t an exception when finished Ironman Hamburg in late July, and he was very emotional when he received his finisher medal from his two children (see photo on the right).

Ironman Hamburg

The end of an Ironman is always a relief – especially when hot summer weather leads to a canceled swim and you have to come up with a new race plan from scratch as the swim is replaced with an initial 6k run.

Tim’s finish in Hamburg was even more special as he had to fight his way from a career-threatening injury back to an Ironman finish: Just two days before Ironman Hawaii in October 2017, he was hit by a car during his final shake-down ride and broke his neck. The best option for a full recovery was wearing a halo for three months, even if that was probably the most uncomfortable choice. The story of his recovery from that injury is detailed in the documentary “The Man with the Halo” (available on YouTube). Being able to finish an Ironman just nine months after his horrible accident is a fantastic result.

But Tim is also a professional athlete, and it was clear that “just finishing” wasn’t his main goal: Hamburg wasn’t supposed to be the end of his recovery story but just a stepping stone on the way back to the World Championships. After he was able to win 70.3 Costa Rice in June, he had a chance to qualify for Kona. A fourth place finish would have secured a slot, and he was among the first four athletes for most of the day. But then he struggled in the last 20k of the run, eventually falling back to ninth place. Therefore, the elation of having finished was mixed with the disappointment of not having qualified for Kona.

Ironman Copenhagen

After beating up his body and mind all day chasing an Ironman finish and a Kona slot, the last thing an athlete wants to think about how soon he can do the next one – but that’s exactly what Tim needed to do if he still wanted to race in Kona this year.

But I’ve seen a few athletes change their mind quickly once the initial disappointment and exhaustion have worn off. One example this year is Will Clarke who DNF’d while chasing a Kona slot in his home Ironman UK on July 15th. After weighing his options for a couple of days he decided to race IM Hamburg, the same race Tim did. Will was able to finish fourth with a solid day and secure his Kona slot.

Just one day after the race in Hamburg, Tim resolved to give qualifying one more chance. As he already had two good 70.3 scores, that required him to do another full Ironman race. He and his family had planned to stay for some time in the UK after Hamburg, so he decided to go for the last European Ironman race before the final Kona cutoff – Ironman Copenhagen on August 19th.

With only ten male slots available, it’s a bit hard to calculate what Tim will need to qualify. He’s currently in seventh position of those looking for an August slot, but a good number of athletes will likely pass him on the last weekend of racing. I think he’ll be safe for a Kona slot with a seventh-place finish (or better), but there are still many moving parts.

I hope that Tim’s body allows him to have a solid race in Copenhagen, without a doubt he’ll then finish in a position to receive a slot. It would be awesome to see him compete in Kona just one year after breaking his neck on the Queen K.

Ironman Copenhagen 2018 (Aug 19th) – Seedings

IMCPHIM Copenhagen is one of the final races before the August cutoff for Kona Pro Qualifying. I have analyzed the situation for August Pro qualifying – who is currently in, who can still make it?

Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2010 Tim Van Berkel (AUS) 08:07:39 Rebekah Keat (AUS) 08:54:36
2011 Tim Van Berkel (AUS) 08:11:15 Rebekah Keat (AUS) 08:52:42
2012 Aaron Farlow (AUS) 08:20:09 Camilla Pedersen (DEN) 09:12:27
2013 Jens Petersen-Bach (DEN) 08:12:41 Eva Wutti (AUT) 08:37:36
2014 Henrik Hyldelund (DEN) 08:03:39 Daniela Ryf (SUI) 08:53:33
2015 Guilherme Manocchio (BRA) 08:14:56 Michelle Vesterby (DEN) 08:59:49
2016 Patrik Nilsson (SWE) 07:49:18
2017 Michelle Vesterby (DEN) 09:00:19

Last TOP 3

Here are the links to the full result analysis from 2017 (WPRO) and from 2016 which was the last men’s Pro race.

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Michelle Vesterby DEN 00:53:02 04:48:02 03:15:05 09:00:19
2 Corinne Abraham GBR 01:00:21 04:53:20 03:09:51 09:08:06
3 Sofie Goos BEL 01:00:15 05:00:41 03:11:14 09:17:17

Male Race Results 2016

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Patrik Nilsson SWE 00:47:53 04:14:15 02:43:14 07:49:18
2 Will Clarke GBR 00:47:46 04:24:33 02:43:16 07:59:31
3 Fabio Carvalho BRA 00:47:51 04:14:50 02:59:35 08:07:10

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 07:49:18 Patrik Nilsson 2016-08-21
Swim overall 00:45:22 Stephen Bayliss 2011-08-01
Bike overall 04:13:57 Andreas Raelert 2016-08-21
Run overall 02:38:58 Mads Vittrup 2011-08-01
Total female 08:37:36 Eva Wutti 2013-08-18
Swim female 00:48:29 Ann Lønnberg 2011-08-01
Bike female 04:39:58 Eva Wutti 2013-08-18
Run female 03:00:51 Eva Wutti 2013-08-18

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Copenhagen is 20:11.

Race Adjustments for IM Copenhagen

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Finishers Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2010 32:51 01:36 09:50 10:46 24 32:51 01:36 09:50 10:46
2011 27:13 03:10 12:54 06:04 28 30:02 02:23 11:22 08:25
2012 17:57 02:36 12:46 03:30 19 26:00 02:27 11:50 06:47
2013 27:32 01:24 17:07 05:30 30 26:23 02:12 13:09 06:28
2014 15:53 01:54 10:06 01:43 27 of 35 24:17 02:08 12:32 05:31
2015 14:04 01:27 15:23 01:47 26 of 30 22:35 02:01 13:01 04:53
2016 10:41 01:26 20:10 -00:48 21 of 28 20:53 01:56 14:02 04:05
2017 15:20 -00:30 15:59 04:48 7 of 8 20:11 01:38 14:17 04:10

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Copenhagen is an MPRO-only, P-2000 race. It has a total prize purse of 40.000 US$, paying 10 deep.

Male Race Participants

The strength of the field is 20% of a typical Kona field.

# Bib Name Nat Expected Rating ESwim EBike ET2 ERun Consistency Overall
1 22 Tim Don GBR 07:54:16 08:18:42 00:46:12 04:14:21 05:05:32 02:48:44 43% +33% -24% (5) (11)
2 2 Boris Stein GER 08:02:54 08:20:56 00:51:31 04:16:20 05:12:51 02:50:03 80% +20% -0% (9) 16
3 1 Clemente Alonso McKernan ESP 08:03:45 08:25:02 00:46:45 04:24:47 05:16:32 02:47:13 58% +7% -35% (16) 24
4 53 Jesper Svensson SWE 08:04:12 08:35:40 00:45:23 04:20:37 05:11:00 02:53:12 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (66)
5 57 Cameron Wurf AUS 08:06:54 08:26:29 00:49:36 04:09:19 05:03:56 03:02:58 72% +22% -6% (14) 29
6 23 Marc Duelsen GER 08:10:32 08:30:54 00:49:24 04:24:24 05:18:47 02:51:45 93% +0% -7% (13) 49
7 51 Stefan Schmid GER 08:10:55 08:30:33 00:50:47 04:25:31 05:21:18 02:49:37 62% +17% -21% (17) 46
8 3 Cyril Viennot FRA 08:10:58 08:28:47 00:49:25 04:26:51 05:21:17 02:49:41 59% +6% -35% (23) 41
9 7 Jens Petersen-Bach DEN 08:13:31 08:35:33 00:49:01 04:31:38 05:25:40 02:47:51 56% +10% -34% (22) 64
10 11 Johann Ackermann GER 08:13:58 08:43:43 00:46:50 04:20:33 05:12:24 03:01:34 64% +0% -36% (12) 86
11 32 Kristian Hoegenhaug DEN 08:14:14 08:42:30 00:53:21 04:19:35 05:17:55 02:56:19 100% +0% -0% (2) (83)
12 5 Giulio Molinari ITA 08:15:08 08:32:04 00:47:08 04:23:25 05:15:33 02:59:35 100% +0% -0% (5) 57
13 34 Philipp Koutny SUI 08:16:07 08:43:14 00:49:00 04:24:23 05:18:22 02:57:45 47% +14% -40% (11) 85
14 9 Thiago Vinhal BRA 08:17:36 08:38:04 00:47:57 04:33:22 05:26:20 02:51:16 65% +30% -4% (16) 76
15 26 Markus Fachbach GER 08:18:15 08:46:33 00:48:32 04:27:17 05:20:49 02:57:26 47% +0% -53% (23) 92
16 55 Andrej Vistica CRO 08:18:39 08:37:32 00:53:05 04:30:02 05:28:08 02:50:31 93% +0% -7% (17) 75
17 12 Michael Patrick Alonso Mckernan ESP 08:21:09 08:54:35 00:52:53 04:21:15 05:19:09 03:02:00 -0% +42% -58% (3) (130)
18 41 Sebastian Neef GER 08:21:26 09:01:32 00:50:23 04:21:50 05:17:14 03:04:12 15% +24% -61% (4) (156)
19 6 Esben Hovgaard DEN 08:21:41 08:54:45 00:51:09 04:29:26 05:25:35 02:56:06 44% +22% -35% (13) 131
20 27 Chris Fischer DEN 08:22:41 08:46:02 00:52:54 04:30:31 05:28:26 02:54:15 69% +4% -26% (10) 90
21 13 Victor Arroyo Bugallo ESP 08:23:15 08:55:58 00:54:35 04:34:19 05:33:54 02:49:21 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (137)
22 8 Daniil Sapunov UKR 08:24:57 08:48:36 00:47:11 04:35:46 05:27:57 02:57:00 76% +5% -18% (12) 101
23 30 Pedro Gomes POR 08:27:19 08:50:32 00:50:42 04:37:25 05:33:06 02:54:13 50% +0% -50% (33) 110
24 48 Michael Ruenz GER 08:27:29 08:55:59 00:54:46 04:36:10 05:35:56 02:51:33 61% +0% -39% (14) 137
25 43 Andreas Niedrig GER 08:30:48 09:15:35 00:46:30 04:23:27 05:14:57 03:15:51 28% +19% -53% (15) (196)
26 35 Markus Liebelt GER 08:34:19 09:20:09 00:53:24 04:28:26 05:26:50 03:07:29 23% +0% -77% (3) (206)
27 44 Sebastian Norberg SWE 08:35:00 09:05:46 00:54:07 04:33:33 05:32:40 03:02:20 35% +39% -26% (3) (167)
28 4 Nick Baldwin SEY 08:35:34 09:01:29 00:51:51 04:34:30 05:31:22 03:04:12 65% +0% -35% (22) 155
29 38 Philipp Mock GER 08:37:20 09:08:30 00:56:55 04:26:03 05:27:58 03:09:22 100% +0% -0% (2) (176)
30 29 Jacob Frandsen DEN 08:41:31 09:06:52 00:54:47 04:31:11 05:30:58 03:10:33 85% +0% -15% (5) (168)
31 10 Jonas Oerarbaeck SWE 08:44:36 09:24:17 00:58:40 04:41:30 05:45:10 02:59:26 39% +0% -61% (2) (225)
32 50 Mike Schifferle SUI 08:45:11 09:19:47 00:58:28 04:37:30 05:40:58 03:04:13 78% +6% -16% (74) 202
33 40 Urs Mueller SUI 08:45:17 09:14:19 00:51:14 04:35:53 05:32:07 03:13:10 51% +13% -36% (9) 192
34 54 Sanne Swolfs BEL 08:46:13 09:20:25 unrated unrated unrated unrated 52% +0% -48% (2) (207)
35 16 Morten Banke DEN 08:46:32 09:20:46 00:57:10 04:42:49 05:44:59 03:01:33 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (210)
36 39 Vincent Morizot FRA 08:52:21 09:26:56 00:52:00 04:33:38 05:30:38 03:21:43 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (229)
37 45 Stefan Overmars NED 08:56:02 09:25:38 00:53:12 04:36:58 05:35:10 03:20:52 71% +0% -29% (4) (226)
38 36 Michael Louys BEL 08:57:43 09:42:37 01:00:44 04:42:07 05:47:51 03:09:52 33% +5% -62% (14) (254)
39 28 Rasmus Fitzner DEN 08:57:54 09:32:52 00:53:54 04:49:25 05:48:18 03:09:36 40% +0% -60% (3) (239)
40 20 Bekim Christensen DEN 08:58:44 09:31:46 01:00:02 04:37:41 05:42:42 03:16:02 20% +19% -61% (7) 235
41 56 Frederik Waer BEL 09:00:06 09:35:12 01:05:54 04:47:05 05:58:00 03:02:06 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (247)
42 25 Olivier Esser BEL 09:03:35 09:27:53 00:52:45 04:48:53 05:46:38 03:16:57 75% +0% -25% (4) 231
43 19 Vinicius Canhedo BRA 09:03:57 09:50:57 00:49:43 04:45:53 05:40:36 03:23:21 24% +0% -76% (4) (264)
44 15 Mads Bang Jensen DEN 09:04:48 09:46:33 00:54:07 04:49:40 05:48:48 03:16:00 45% +55% -0% (2) (260)
45 37 Dennis Matzen DEN 09:08:33 09:44:12 00:54:32 04:53:16 05:52:48 03:15:45 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (258)
46 18 Anthony Cadario FRA 09:11:31 09:47:21 00:54:47 04:57:37 05:57:24 03:14:07 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (260)
47 24 Patrik Ericsson SWE 09:14:40 09:50:42 00:48:19 04:32:09 05:25:28 03:49:12 62% +0% -38% (2) (263)
48 14 Dirk Baelus BEL 09:18:09 09:43:04 00:55:49 04:51:34 05:52:24 03:25:45 71% +0% -29% (5) 255
49 47 Lukas Polan CZE 09:21:23 09:53:51 01:00:02 04:59:51 06:04:53 03:16:30 50% +13% -36% (17) 265
50 33 Aleksander Kochetkov LTU 10:30:57 11:11:58 01:07:00 05:26:56 06:38:56 03:52:01 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (290)
42 Marek Nemcik SVK 10:55:50 unrated 01:10:39 05:21:55 06:37:34 04:18:16 35% +20% -45% (47) n/a
17 Mihai Baractaru ROM n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (1 IM Pro race) (n/a)
31 Kristian Hindkjaer DEN n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
49 Imanol Sagarzazu ESP n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (1 IM Pro race) (n/a)
52 Thomas Hansen DEN n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)

There are quite a few athletes who have already secured their Kona slots and are unlikely to race (e.g. Philipp Koutny, Marc Duelsen, Thiago Vinhal). Cameron Wurf and Jens Petersen-Bach are also safe but it’s unclear if they want to race another Ironman before Kona.

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

  • Clemente Alonso McKernan: 36% (2-1)
  • Tim Don: 33% (2-1)
  • Boris Stein: 12% (7-1)
  • Cameron Wurf: 5% (21-1)
  • Marc Duelsen: 4% (25-1)
  • Stefan Schmid: 3% (33-1)
  • Jens Petersen-Bach: 3% (38-1)
  • Jesper Svensson: 2% (39-1)

Ironman Copenhagen 2018 (Aug 19th) – Entry List

IMCPHMale Race Participants

Name Nation KPR points KPR races
Boris Stein GER 3920 1+2 (3100/320)
Tyler Butterfield BMU 3165 2+1
Nick Baldwin SEY 2820 2+1
David Plese SLO 2455 3+1 (385/255)
Cyril Viennot FRA 2060 1+2 (1280/280)
Johann Ackermann GER 1905 2+2 (685/220)
Daniil Sapunov UKR 1305 2+2 (70/180)
Michael Patrick Alonso Mckernan ESP 960 1+0
Pedro Gomes POR 785 2+2 (170/30)
Philipp Mock GER 785 1+2 (685/35)
Michael Ruenz GER 616 2+1
Vinicius Canhedo BRA 460 0+2 (0/220)
Victor Arroyo Bugallo ESP 405 1+0
Vincent Morizot FRA 190 1+2 (40/35)
Stefan Overmars NED 190 0+2 (0/55)
Mike Schifferle SUI 155 3+0 (30/0)
Markus Liebelt GER 135 0+1
Bekim Christensen DEN 110 2+0
Morten Banke DEN 60 1+0
Anthony Cadario FRA 42 0+2 (0/7)
Lukas Polan CZE 10 1+2 (3/2)
Olivier Esser BEL 8 1+0
Thomas Hansen DEN 5 0+1
Rasmus Fitzner DEN 3 1+0
Clemente Alonso McKernan ESP 0 0+0
Esben Hovgaard DEN 0 0+0
Aleksander Kochetkov LTU 0 0+0
Andreas Niedrig GER 0 0+0
Imanol Sagarzazu ESP 0 0+0
Mihai Baractaru ROM
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