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Ironman Austria (June 26th) – Predictions

IMAustriaLogoUpdate June 16th: Shortly after the startlist was published, Natascha Badmann told the organizers she won’t be racing as she is still recovering from a crash at 70.3 Pescara.

Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2005 Raynard Tissink (ZAF) 08:14:37 Katherine Allen (AUT) 09:07:04
2006 Marino Vanhoenacker (BEL) 08:07:59 Rebecca Preston (AUS) 09:12:09
2007 Marino Vanhoenacker (BEL) 08:06:39 Edith Niederfriniger (ITA) 09:08:45
2008 Marino Vanhoenacker (BEL) 08:06:11 Sandra Wallenhorst (GER) 08:47:26
2009 Marino Vanhoenacker (BEL) 08:01:38 Bella Bayliss (GBR) 08:50:13
2010 Marino Vanhoenacker (BEL) 07:52:05 Eva Dollinger (AUT) 09:18:50
2011 Marino Vanhoenacker (BEL) 07:45:58 Mary Beth Ellis (USA) 08:43:34
2012 Faris Al-Sultan (GER) 08:11:31 Linsey Corbin (USA) 09:09:58
2013 Andreas Raelert (GER) 07:59:51 Erika Csomor (HUN) 08:59:31
2014 Ivan Rana (ESP) 07:48:43 Linsey Corbin (USA) 08:42:42
2015 Marino Vanhoenacker (BEL) 07:48:45 Eva Wutti (AUT) 08:45:37

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Marino Vanhoenacker BEL 00:46:40 04:11:47 02:45:53 07:48:45
2 Michael Weiss AUT 00:51:52 04:20:57 02:48:18 08:06:59
3 Ivan Rana ESP 00:46:36 04:32:55 02:44:27 08:08:25

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Eva Wutti AUT 00:52:39 04:53:57 02:54:42 08:45:37
2 Lisa Huetthaler AUT 00:52:45 04:53:41 03:11:43 09:02:46
3 Sarah Piampiano USA 00:56:59 05:00:09 03:00:12 09:03:10

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 07:45:58 Marino Vanhoenacker 2011-07-03
Swim overall 00:42:54 Bart Colpaert 2013-06-30
Bike overall 04:11:47 Marino Vanhoenacker 2015-06-28
Run overall 02:39:24 Marino Vanhoenacker 2011-07-03
Total female 08:42:42 Linsey Corbin 2014-06-29
Swim female 00:45:51 Simone Braendli 2014-06-29
Bike female 04:43:50 Diana Riesler 2011-07-03
Run female 02:54:42 Eva Wutti 2015-06-28

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Austria is 18:45.

Race Adjustments for IM Austria

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Finishers Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2006 16:23 02:21 05:39 03:10 39 16:23 02:21 05:39 03:10
2007 14:39 02:24 15:21 02:20 32 15:31 02:22 10:30 02:45
2008 22:57 02:15 14:00 05:55 39 18:00 02:20 11:40 03:48
2009 22:11 01:16 14:53 03:56 37 19:02 02:04 12:28 03:50
2010 17:33 00:53 10:38 02:04 36 18:44 01:50 12:06 03:29
2011 26:23 02:07 14:54 09:46 31 20:01 01:53 12:34 04:32
2012 06:40 -03:09 12:13 -00:11 30 18:07 01:10 12:31 03:51
2013 23:40 05:41 12:33 05:39 60 18:48 01:43 12:31 04:05
2014 20:04 03:01 10:57 07:44 56 of 65 18:57 01:52 12:21 04:29
2015 16:59 02:15 10:10 06:10 32 of 46 18:45 01:54 12:08 04:39

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Austria is a P-2000 race. It has a total prize purse of 75.000 US$.

Male Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Consistency Overall
1 1 Marino Vanhoenacker BEL 07:52:13 08:24:35 00:46:54 04:12:30 02:47:50 46% +18% -37% (21) 10
2 8 Michael Weiss AUT 08:07:27 08:32:17 00:51:52 04:17:59 02:52:36 89% +11% -0% (13) 28
3 3 Bart Aernouts BEL 08:12:17 08:30:40 00:50:07 04:28:40 02:48:30 75% +0% -25% (8) (23)
4 6 Alessandro Degasperi ITA 08:17:17 08:35:24 00:50:11 04:34:42 02:47:25 81% +0% -19% (6) 41
5 4 David Plese SLO 08:17:56 08:41:23 00:50:33 04:30:16 02:52:07 73% +5% -22% (16) 59
6 2 Viktor Zyemtsev USA 08:19:42 08:40:52 00:49:25 04:35:19 02:49:58 74% +0% -26% (18) 57
7 53 Daniel Fontana ITA 08:19:49 08:49:07 00:47:06 04:31:54 02:55:50 42% +0% -58% (11) (84)
8 56 Michael Raelert GER 08:20:46 08:47:46 00:46:08 04:33:07 02:56:31 11% +20% -69% (4) (77)
9 10 Alberto Casadei ITA 08:23:56 08:48:52 00:45:34 04:37:36 02:55:46 38% +16% -46% (7) 83
10 54 Mike Aigroz SUI 08:25:25 08:50:54 00:46:38 04:33:56 02:59:50 51% +3% -46% (21) 90
11 21 Matthias Knossalla GER 08:32:21 09:03:09 01:01:53 04:27:15 02:58:13 29% +71% -0% (2) (137)
12 5 Mauro Baertsch SUI 08:33:15 08:58:46 00:51:43 04:38:41 02:57:51 45% +32% -23% (9) 117
13 47 Harry Wiltshire GBR 08:34:20 08:53:05 00:46:14 04:39:14 03:03:52 26% +32% -42% (14) 95
14 44 Matic Modic SLO 08:35:24 09:04:24 00:52:32 04:37:37 03:00:15 47% +39% -13% (6) 144
15 13 Vincent Riess AUT 08:35:32 09:19:38 00:52:32 04:47:33 02:50:27 11% +0% -89% (5) (196)
16 9 Thiago Vinhal BRA 08:37:26 09:02:59 00:46:50 04:50:27 02:55:09 85% +0% -15% (10) 134
17 29 Gergö Molnar HUN 08:38:17 09:08:36 00:47:24 04:42:16 03:03:36 58% +0% -42% (6) 160
18 57 Daniel Herlbauer AUT 08:39:51 09:19:49 00:51:27 04:38:18 03:05:06 41% +0% -59% (4) (197)
19 27 Xavier Torrades ESP 08:41:18 09:05:35 00:47:36 04:45:17 03:03:26 100% +0% -0% (2) (152)
20 30 Jose Luis Villanueva ESP 08:42:11 09:08:28 00:56:38 04:45:41 02:54:51 38% +8% -54% (13) (159)
21 11 Christian Birngruber AUT 08:43:59 09:13:35 00:50:06 04:36:43 03:12:10 74% +0% -26% (3) (180)
22 14 Andreas Fuchs AUT 08:44:34 09:17:11 00:53:45 04:31:12 03:14:37 76% +0% -24% (9) (192)
23 32 Freddy Lampret ZAF 08:47:46 09:36:27 00:50:36 04:39:29 03:12:41 1% +46% -52% (8) 239
24 43 Antony Costes FRA 08:50:06 09:25:10 00:47:16 04:32:21 03:25:29 47% +0% -53% (2) (207)
25 48 Denis Sketako SLO 08:51:14 09:17:42 00:56:49 04:40:04 03:09:21 100% +0% -0% (2) (194)
26 45 Nicolas Hemet FRA 08:52:57 09:14:25 00:53:46 04:43:44 03:10:27 42% +0% -58% (6) 183
27 35 Oliver Simon GBR 09:03:20 09:33:09 00:47:20 04:44:33 03:26:27 67% +0% -33% (11) 229
28 38 Felipe De Oliveira Manente BRA 09:04:23 09:37:20 00:51:36 04:52:03 03:15:45 18% +7% -75% (8) 241
29 31 Ivan Jezko SVK 09:06:23 09:43:49 00:57:33 04:50:48 03:13:02 39% +33% -28% (9) 254
30 20 Michael Louys BEL 09:09:35 09:35:44 01:00:14 04:47:30 03:16:51 55% +15% -30% (7) 238
31 40 Harri Sokk EST 09:10:08 09:29:51 00:56:42 04:38:11 03:30:15 100% +0% -0% (3) 220
32 17 Markus Mlinar AUT 09:12:27 09:58:31 00:53:47 04:52:07 03:21:33 24% +0% -76% (3) (274)
33 58 Martin Kleinl AUT 09:13:15 09:47:35 00:59:11 04:41:42 03:27:23 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (259)
34 50 David Jilek CZE 09:14:48 09:53:28 00:56:21 04:50:02 03:23:25 74% +0% -26% (5) 266
35 16 Armin Atzlinger AUT 09:17:12 09:46:48 00:55:08 05:06:47 03:10:17 100% +0% -0% (2) (258)
36 55 Lukas Polan CZE 09:19:15 09:56:55 01:00:12 04:56:16 03:17:47 30% +15% -55% (9) 271
37 28 Gili Oriol ESP 09:21:37 10:10:17 00:53:28 04:48:56 03:34:14 49% +51% -0% (2) (284)
38 49 Juha Laitinen FIN 09:31:15 10:16:40 01:02:47 05:02:47 03:20:42 9% +30% -61% (6) 287
39 24 Ludovic Le Guellec FRA 09:34:21 10:13:14 00:58:49 05:09:22 03:21:09 56% +5% -39% (18) 285
40 26 Stephan Trettin GER 09:55:14 10:29:02 00:59:08 05:04:46 03:46:20 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (290)
41 37 Reinaldo De Oliveira BRA 09:58:56 10:41:03 00:59:38 05:10:54 03:43:24 10% +0% -90% (6) (294)
42 42 Michal Jalovecky CZE 10:12:28 10:46:02 00:59:35 05:41:35 03:26:19 67% +0% -33% (3) 296
43 22 Santiago Abad de Agueda ESP 10:15:14 10:50:10 01:01:16 05:13:57 03:55:02 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (298)
44 15 Christoph Schlagbauer AUT 10:20:27 10:55:41 00:57:21 04:50:40 04:27:26 58% +0% -42% (2) (299)
45 34 Josef Svoboda CZE 11:01:30 12:09:58 01:09:18 05:38:35 04:08:37 39% +12% -49% (13) 304
46 33 Marek Nemcik SVK 11:16:19 12:04:43 01:08:28 05:34:07 04:28:43 39% +20% -41% (33) 303
7 Paul Reitmayr AUT n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
12 Paul Ruttmann AUT n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
18 Lluis Vila aguilar ESP n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
19 Maximilian Gruber AUT n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
23 Bart Borghs BEL n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
25 Joan Capdevila ESP n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
36 Albert Garces ESP n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
39 Nicholas Chase USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
41 Pavel Simko SVK n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
46 Alen Kralj SVN n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
51 David Krupicka CZE n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)

As it’s getting closer to the July cutoff, there are a number of athletes looking to secure KPR points to qualify in the July cutoff (projected cutoff at 3.500 points):

  • Bart Aernouts has enough points (4.325) but needs an Ironman finish.
  • Mauro Bartsch should already be safe for Kona (4.025 points).
  • With David Plese (3415), Alessandro Degasperi (3320), Michael Weiss (3415) and Antony Costes (3120) there are four athletes “on the bubble”, if they can add a few more points they should be able to secure a July slot. A result somewhere between 7th = 405 points and 19th = 120 should be enough for them.
  • Harry Wiltshire (2875) and Mike Aigroz (2480) need to finish in the Top3 to secure enough points.
  • Michael Raelert (3220) had to cancel his start at IM France because of an injury, so it’s unclear if he’ll be able to race. He needs an Ironman finish to be eligible for a Kona slot, and a Top7 result should be enough for him to qualify.

Female Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Consistency Overall
1 61 Mirinda Carfrae AUS 08:47:25 09:08:15 00:53:18 04:56:19 02:52:48 32% +20% -49% (13) (3)
2 63 Michaela Herlbauer AUT 09:08:32 09:40:32 00:52:33 05:02:54 03:08:05 48% +0% -52% (4) 50
3 65 Elisabeth Gruber AUT 09:11:12 09:39:12 00:59:11 05:01:14 03:05:47 100% +0% -0% (5) 45
4 62 Natascha Badmann SUI 09:17:50 09:39:17 00:59:40 04:55:43 03:17:27 42% +0% -58% (17) 46
5 70 Gurutze Frades Larralde ESP 09:22:22 09:51:50 00:59:30 05:11:08 03:06:43 47% +53% -0% (6) 72
6 68 Amber Ferreira USA 09:28:08 09:55:55 00:54:26 05:08:44 03:19:58 40% +31% -30% (13) 82
7 64 Bianca Steurer AUT 09:29:26 09:53:23 00:55:25 05:12:12 03:16:49 74% +26% -0% (4) 77
8 73 Karen Thibodeau CAN 09:35:41 09:58:48 00:52:10 05:17:57 03:20:34 59% +0% -41% (10) 87
9 66 Michaela Rudolf AUT 09:36:50 10:03:31 01:01:57 05:04:34 03:25:19 100% +0% -0% (6) 95
10 67 Angela Kuehnlein GER 10:03:25 10:29:50 01:00:17 05:27:47 03:30:21 34% +27% -39% (5) 158
11 69 Jana Candrova CZE 10:06:00 10:38:19 01:02:22 05:24:16 03:34:21 54% +4% -42% (13) 169
12 71 Frankie Sanjana GBR 10:28:14 11:03:55 01:03:48 05:29:25 03:50:01 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (177)

Because the women have fewer slots, they will have to score about 4.500 points for a July slot. There are not too many athletes in the female field concerned about qualifying:

  • Mirinda Carfrae just needs a “competitive finish” to validate her Automatic Qualifier slot.
  • Bianca Steuer has 3235 points, she needs a Top3 result to get to the cutoff.

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

Seven-time winner and course record holder Marino Vanhoenacker is back to defend his title, he has made it clear that his focus for this year is on a good Austria result. If he is on form, he’ll be hard to beat. If Marino runs into problems, watch out for Bart Aernouts. Bart is a fantastic runner who has been struggling a bit to put together a good Ironman result for some time. He has posted one of the fastest runs with a 2:37 marathon at IM France 2013 when he had an epic battle with Fredrik Van Lierde.

  • Marino Vanhoenacker: 64% (1-1)
  • Michael Weiss: 16% (5-1)
  • Bart Aernouts: 7% (13-1)
  • Daniel Fontana: 4% (22-1)

Female Race Participants

There can’t be any doubt that Miranda Carfrae is the clear favorite on the women’s side. Outside of Kona she hasn’t always had the best results, but after her DNF in Kona last year I would guess that she wants to show to Daniela Ryf that she is still someone to be concerned about. The big question is how big of a statement Rinny can make – a few potential goals for her:

  • Austria Course Record: 8:42:42 by Linsey Corbin 2014
  • Rinny’s PR (also Australian Record): 8:38:53 at Roth 2014
  • Fastest “WTC IM”: Chrissie Wellington 8:33:56 South Africa 2011
  • Fastest Ironman-distance: Chrissie Wellington 8:18:13 Roth 2011

Here are the odds for the female race:

  • Mirinda Carfrae: 61% (1-1)
  • Elisabeth Gruber: 14% (6-1)
  • Michaela Herlbauer: 10% (9-1)
  • Natascha Badmann: 7% (14-1)
  • Amber Ferreira: 4% (21-1)

Challenge Denmark – Analyzing Results

Race Conditions

Similar to last year, Challenge Denmark was a quick race with the new course rating of 20:09, mainly because of a fast bike course.

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected Prize Money
1 Chris Fischer DEN 00:50:52 04:25:00 02:53:54 08:14:25 -06:56 EUR 6000
2 Matthias Knossalla GER 00:59:30 04:18:24 02:55:28 08:19:04 -27:48 EUR 3900
3 Anders Christensen DEN 00:50:45 04:31:45 03:02:09 08:29:25 00:44 EUR 2750
4 David Naesvik SWE 00:50:57 04:29:57 03:07:54 08:33:30 00:08 EUR 1900
5 Lars Vold NOR 00:50:50 04:36:17 03:03:00 08:34:33 n/a EUR 1500
6 Graeme Stewart GBR 00:49:14 04:46:57 02:59:17 08:40:49 -00:44 EUR 1200
7 Thijs Koelen NED 00:50:58 04:42:34 03:15:33 08:53:45 14:45 EUR 1000

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected Prize Money
1 Mirjam Weerd NED 00:49:13 04:57:24 03:16:56 09:08:56 -07:38 EUR 6000
2 Anne Jensen DEN 01:02:42 04:53:43 03:31:20 09:34:44 -21:10 EUR 3900
3 Frankie Sanjana GBR 01:01:23 05:21:13 03:47:54 10:16:12 n/a EUR 2750

Ironman Cairns 2016 – Analyzing Results

Race Conditions

Cairns in July has always had relatively cold conditions and even a chance for some rain. It’s been a relatively slow course (course rating of 3:26), and this year it’s been a bit slower than that (adjustment of 0:20). Some swells on the swim made it a bit tricky for those that are not used to it, but on average not slower than what is typical for Cairns. Rain on the bike slowed things down a bit – it probably also contributed to a number of flats that slowed down some of the racers. The colder temperatures allowed a quicker run than normal.

Jodie Swallow was not slowed down at all by the conditions, she posted a new swim record of 49:06 (improving on Liz Blatchford’s 49:54 from last year), a new bike course record (4:50:40, the only female sub-5 bike split in Cairns) and new overall course record of 9:06:18 (bettering Liz’s old record of 9:11:49). Linsey Corbin set a new run record, her 3:02:01 takes another record from Liz Blatchford. Tim Berkel also set a new men’s course record, his 8:15:03 improves the old record by David Dellow from 2012 by one second!

Male Race Results

Luke McKenzie showed that he wanted to defend his title, he was first out of the water and was also leading on the bike. But two flats cost him some time and he didn’t have the run legs to make up the time he lost. His 6th place finish was enough to score the KPR points he still needed to secure a slot. After T2 leader Clayton Fettell struggled with cramps, Tim Berkel took the lead on the run and his race best 2:46 marathon gave him a four minute cushion at the finish. For some time on the run, David Dellow was within two minutes of Tim, and even though he couldn’t quite close the gap he finished a strong second. Third place went to Pete Jacobs who had his first “competitive” Ironman in a long time.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected Prize Money
1 Tim Van Berkel AUS 00:47:26 04:36:58 02:46:31 08:15:03 -16:14 US$ 30000
2 David Dellow AUS 00:46:34 04:37:59 02:50:13 08:19:13 -06:56 US$ 15000
3 Pete Jacobs AUS 00:46:32 04:35:11 03:02:14 08:28:28 -25:10 US$ 8000
4 Brad Kahlefeldt AUS 00:46:38 04:42:27 02:56:31 08:31:06 09:14 US$ 6500
5 Jens Petersen-Bach DEN 00:51:24 04:45:43 02:50:03 08:31:41 -05:42 US$ 5000
6 Luke McKenzie AUS 00:46:28 04:34:08 03:08:41 08:33:50 00:03 US$ 3500
7 Jordan Rapp USA 00:55:48 04:46:28 02:50:38 08:38:49 11:04 US$ 2500
8 Romain Guillaume FRA 00:50:59 04:42:55 03:02:31 08:41:35 -02:39 US$ 2000
9 Michael Ruenz GER 00:57:48 04:52:17 02:53:18 08:49:01 02:01 US$ 1500
10 Jarmo Hast FIN 00:51:21 04:51:14 03:09:53 08:58:24 02:59 US$ 1000
11 Matthew Pellow AUS 00:47:09 04:51:09 03:31:48 09:14:51 n/a
12 Leigh Stabryla AUS 00:52:24 05:18:14 03:02:14 09:18:11 n/a
13 Adam Gordon AUS 00:58:01 04:57:28 03:21:30 09:22:45 24:27
14 Cameron Wurf AUS 00:51:23 04:23:59 04:03:38 09:24:12 n/a
15 Ryan Palazzi AUS 00:51:18 04:56:29 03:38:50 09:32:44 n/a
16 Tim Green AUS 00:48:01 05:32:31 03:35:21 10:02:40 n/a
17 Samuel Murphy AUS 01:00:08 05:18:24 03:53:56 10:17:59 1:05:25
18 Luke Bell AUS 00:46:58 04:37:27 05:05:10 10:34:12 1:45:57
19 Dan McGuigan AUS 01:09:14 05:20:30 04:18:14 11:06:13 1:11:50
Clayton Fettell AUS 00:46:30 04:23:53 DNF
Cameron Brown NZL 00:51:30 04:46:20 DNF
Matt Hanson USA 00:55:13 04:52:03 DNF
Casey Munro AUS 00:46:36 DNF
Todd Skipworth AUS 00:46:37 DNF
Matt Burton AUS 00:58:00 DNF
Johan Borg AUS 00:59:07 DNF

Winner Tim Berkel receives an Automatic Qualifier slot, as does Pete Jacobs who validated his Kona Champion slot. David Dellow and Luke McKenzie added enough points to be safe for a July slot.

Jens Petersen-Bach is “on the bubble” with 3.610 points while Brad Kahlefeldt (2.695), Romaine Guillaume (2.535) and Jordan Rapp (2.510) are still well short of the projected cutoff of 3.500 points.

Female Race Results

As was to be expected, Jodie Swallow took control of the race on the swim, posted the fastest bike and was then able to hold on to her lead on the run. She won by more than six minutes even as Linsey Corbin had a 3:02 marathon and ran almost 20 minutes into Jodie. Linsey had already lost a lot of time on the bike due to a crash and a penalty, she’ll be happy with her second place (and Kona slot) after her injury-plagued 2015 season. Sarah Crowley was sold all day and took third place in front of Michelle Bremer who finished her third Ironman within three months. Veteran racer Bek Keat was well placed after the swim and first half of the bike, but she re-injured her calf and wasn’t able to run well enough to contend for the podium,  but she still fought on to finish.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected Prize Money
1 Jodie Swallow GBR 00:49:06 04:50:40 03:21:28 09:06:18 -07:47 US$ 30000
2 Linsey Corbin USA 00:57:26 05:08:26 03:02:01 09:12:50 -07:31 US$ 15000
3 Sarah Crowley AUS 00:57:28 05:03:50 03:14:02 09:19:56 -20:29 US$ 8000
4 Michelle Bremer NZL 00:57:24 05:03:51 03:19:37 09:25:44 -09:38 US$ 6500
5 Rebekah Keat AUS 00:52:13 05:09:52 03:36:06 09:43:56 19:04 US$ 5000
6 Kym Coogan AUS 00:57:25 05:26:04 03:49:52 10:18:39 25:48 US$ 3500
7 Tracy Morrison AUS 01:03:18 05:40:32 03:32:40 10:22:01 -05:01 US$ 2500
8 Tamsyn Hayes NZL 01:06:37 05:20:29 04:10:01 10:44:22 33:07 US$ 2000
9 Kristy Hallett AUS 01:03:21 05:35:31 04:02:47 10:50:12 22:18 US$ 1500
Alison Fitch AUS 00:59:30 DNF

Similar to last year, Jodie Swallow wins a Regional Championship and receives an Automatic Qualifier slot. Linsey Corbin, Sarah Crowley and Michelle Bremer have scored enough points to be safe for a July slot.

Challenge Denmark 2016 (June 12th) – Predictions

Billund herningPrevious Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2015 Chris Fischer (DEN) 08:23:29 Beate Goertz (GER) 09:22:28

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Chris Fischer DEN 08:23:29
2 Dirk Wijnalda NED 08:31:08
3 Anders Christensen DEN 08:37:04

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Beate Goertz GER 09:22:28
2 Carolin Lehrieder GER 09:23:29
3 Jessie Donavan USA 09:33:28

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:23:29 Chris Fischer 2015-06-13
Total female 09:22:28 Beate Goertz 2015-06-13

Course Rating

The Course Rating for Challenge Denmark is 15:35.

Race Adjustments for Challenge Denmark

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Finishers Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2015 15:35 n/a n/a n/a 21 15:35 n/a n/a n/a

Prize Money

Challenge Denmark has a total prize purse of 38.000 EUR.

Male Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Consistency Overall
1 1 Chris Fischer DEN 08:26:04 08:54:31 00:51:02 04:37:54 02:52:08 36% +24% -41% (5) 96
2 3 Anders Christensen DEN 08:39:13 09:13:35 unrated unrated unrated 48% +0% -52% (2) (178)
3 8 David Naesvik SWE 08:42:55 09:07:38 00:53:43 04:38:08 03:06:03 72% +0% -28% (12) 153
4 6 Peter Seidel GER 08:47:39 09:32:46 00:50:44 04:29:15 03:22:39 30% +0% -70% (3) 227
5 10 Graeme Stewart GBR 08:48:00 09:13:36 00:53:39 04:44:56 03:04:25 35% +12% -52% (11) 178
6 9 Thijs Koelen NED 08:50:07 09:08:51 00:52:48 04:44:34 03:07:44 79% +21% -0% (4) 162
7 7 Matthias Knossalla GER 08:59:10 09:26:21 01:02:41 04:46:23 03:05:06 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (208)
8 4 Stefan Eichheimer GER 09:11:07 09:38:55 00:56:53 04:52:49 03:16:26 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (245)
2 Frantz Andersen DEN n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Consistency Overall
1 33 Mirjam Weerd NED 09:24:35 09:41:41 00:52:50 05:02:47 03:23:58 74% +9% -17% (11) (48)
2 34 Anne Jensen DEN 10:01:16 10:28:26 01:03:58 05:15:56 03:36:22 77% +0% -23% (4) 155
31 Frankie Sanjana GBR n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

  • Chris Fischer: 55% (1-1)
  • Anders Christensen: 17% (5-1)
  • David Naesvik: 13% (6-1)
  • Peter Seidel: 6% (17-1)
  • Thijs Koelen: 5% (20-1)
  • Graeme Stewart: 4% (27-1)

Female Race Participants

  • Mirjam Weerd: 71% (1-1)
  • Anne Jensen: 16% (5-1)
  • Frankie Sanjana: 7% (13-1)

Rebekah Keat Optimistic for IM Cairns

With Rebekah “Bek” Keat, the 2011 Cairns champion returns to the 2016 race. With her 8:39:24 from Roth 2009 Bek is the fourth-fastest woman over the Ironman distance. After a triathlon career spanning 20 years with a number of great results and at 38 years of age, she is clearly in the second half of her career. She was kind enough to answer a few questions about her years in the sport and the upcoming race.

Racing after Melbourne 2014

Bek’s last Ironman finish was Melbourne 2014 where she finished fourth. After that she didn’t chase Kona qualifying (even though she was probably thinking about it!) and focused on racing 70.3s.

“I have been in the sport since 1996 so 20 years, it’s a long time! I had been pretty lucky with no injuries, until a few years ago when I started racing longer races and doing more of the Iron distances. When I was coached by Brett Sutton I was racing five Ironmans or long distance races in short periods of three or four months. The years have caught up with me, and my body wasn’t holding up like it use to. I wanted to give my body a break, I wasn’t able to get huge run miles in without getting injured. The break has helped me to get back to being injury free and healthy, apart form the usual stiffness and soreness – I’m no spring chicken anymore!

“The goal this season is to execute a great race and be able to celebrate all my hard work with a race that I know I am capable of. I have not raced to my potential in an Ironman since my second place at IM Mt Tremblant in 2013! All I want to do is have a strong swim, bike and run and have fun doing it!!”

Comparing the 2009 Bek to Today’s

For a long time Bek was part of the “Sutto squad”, today she trains under Siri Lindley in Boulder. In addition to a coach-athlete relationship (by now going both ways!), Bek and Siri are also married. I’ve asked Bek how being married to your coach works and how she has changed as an athlete and as a person. 

Wedding“The Bek who did 8:39 had a perfect day, today’s Bek is actually faster, stronger and fitter. I know I have much more to give – that’s what motivates me! As I am training better than ever, I know I can go faster than that 8:39, but unfortunately the body hasn’t always been able to produce the results that I know I am capable of!

“As a person I have grown a lot, both emotionally and spiritually. I am very lucky to have met Siri, the love of my life. I am not just content but I am the happiest I have ever been in my life – Siri completes me. I told her when I married her that if me being a triathlete was going to affect our relationship I would quit immediately! That’s how much I am committed and how in love I am with her! Triathlon was the pure love and focus of my life but now Siri is. Even after a bad day I know I can come home to someone that loves me for who I am!”

Photo: Bek and Siri getting married.

Winning Shepparton“Siri and I have had to negotiate in the past, it wasn’t easy adapting as her partner to having to agree with every single session she gave me! Before I won 2015 Shepparton for the fifth time in a world class field, I had promised Siri I would do exactly as she said – no questions, no negotiating! I had the ‘ ideal race’ apart from tearing my calf at 10 k to go. Siri screamed at me don’t you stop – so I didn’t! I really don’t know how I held off Radka and Yvonne, but I won the race in record time and it felt amazing!

“Since then I am very diligent with trying to do exactly what she says, though at times I want to scream at her or flip her the bird! I certainly had to bite my tongue a lot in front of our team mates when i get angry at a session she has given us – like a “surprise 2km time trial” in the middle of a 5km swim set!

“We have a great balance now. I am writing her run program and she has to do exactly what I write! She is not as good at doing the program as she thinks, she often runs further than I have given her. Obviously she’s not then runner she was when she was wining world cups with 33 min for 10k, but she is going great. She still makes me very proud!”

Photo: Bek winning her fifth Challenge Shepparton with a new course record.

Racing at Texas and Going Into Cairns

Before Texas

Bek lined up at IM Texas and things were going well: She had a strong bike leg and came into T2 in third place, then even moved into second on the run. However she collapsed at the half marathon mark and DNF’d. Just four weeks later she’s backing up by racing IM Cairns.

“It was scary – it’s not the first time this has happened. The last time it was heat exhaustion, this time we think it was a combination of heat exhaustion and lack of calories. The “real” temperature was 110 and 80% humidity, coming from Boulder I was not acclimatized. I got excited when I moved into top 3 only a few minutes behind first and threw my food to Siri to take off in the run. At around the 22km mark I collapsed, my legs went and I couldn’t get back up. I made silly mistakes with not fueling enough and certainly learned my lesson!

Photo: Bek ready to race IM Texas.

“In Australia I am staying with my twin sister Simone and helping her with her amazing twin girls. I am so chuffed and over the moon to be an auntie, it’s amazing and so surreal! We are very very proud! Although Boulder right now is almost as warm, it’s been great to get in some warmer weather training.”

Two Twins

Photo: Bek with her twin sister Simone (left), holding Simone’s new born twins Makayla Blue (left) and Charli Grace (right). 

I’ve asked Siri about Bek’s chances in Cairns:

“I am fired up for Bek. I know she is excited to race in her home country, and has so much to inspire and motivate her throughout the race. We had our sights set on IM Texas. Unfortunately, in Texas Bek had miscalculated her hydration/nutrition requirements considering the 100% humidity. She will never make that same mistake again.

“Bek was in winning form and still carries that same form into Cairns.  She absolutely has everything she needs to race to the top of the podium in Cairns. The work has been done. She just plans to go out there and celebrate all the hard work she has done. Our goal is for her to get out and race to the best of her ability every step of the way. If she is able to do this, I’m certain she will have a tremendous day. She is in fantastic form and just needs to nail her plan to get the very most out of herself on the day!”

(All Photos Supplied by Rebekah)

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