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Pros Battling Hypothermia in Non-wetsuit Swim at IM Frankfurt

This year’s IM Frankfurt produced a number of DNFs due to hypothermia when there was a non-wetsuit swim for the Pros because of high water temperatures. This post goes into some more detail on what happened, my best understanding of the current rules and some suggestions for avoiding more occurrences of this issue. I hope that this post can add some details to the discussion that needs to happen.

Temperatures at Langener Waldsee

In the days before Ironman Frankfurt there was a lot of speculation if the Pro swim would be without wetsuits. The cutoff temperature for the Pro race is 21.9°C (71.5°F). As the temperature was hovering around this mark, the final decision would be made on race day morning. I was out at the “Langener Waldsee” on Wednesday when the posted water temperature was 21.8°C. After a few nice warm days it was already at 22.1°C on Friday and on Saturday it had risen to 22.5°C. But Saturday was cloudy and had some rain, so it was a surprise that on Sunday morning the official temperature was announced as 22.6°C (even higher than Saturday) and the race was to start with a non-wetsuit swim.

Among local athletes who swim in the Langener Waldsee on a regular basis it is well known that there are warmer and colder spots in the lake and that temperatures can vary quite widely depending on where you measure. According to the rules the water temperature is to be taken “at the middle of the course and in two other areas on the swim course, at a depth of 60 cm. The lowest measured temperature will be considered as the official water temperature.”

According to ITU rules, the air temperature also plays a role. While I am not aware of any official measurements, air temperature was somewhere around 12°C before the race started and 14°C at the time that athletes started the bike.

There are some reports that the life guards at the Langener Waldsee measured a temperature of 21.5°C on Sunday. After a cold and rainy race day the temperature dropped pretty quickly, on Monday it was posted at 21.0°C and 20.3°C on Tuesday.

Pro Athletes in Trouble

After the decision to not allow the use of wetsuits for the Pros, a lot of Pro athletes were struggling in the swim. The most public case was Daniela Ryf who was leading the women’s race after the swim but couldn’t get warm and had to abandon the race after an hour on the bike because of hypothermia.

There were a lot more athletes that struggled with the cold and DNF’d on the bike. Some athletes even had to be rescued on the swim, close to becoming completely disoriented and loosing consciousness. At least two athletes were sent to the hospital when their low body temperatures raised serious concerns with the lifeguards.

WPro Bikes

(Photo: The lonely bikes of Kristin Möller and Diana Riesler in T1 after both had to be rescued during the swim.)

Brett Sutton has written about the issue as well and included a list of athletes that DNF’d because of the cold – making it clear that both men and women struggled in the water. An even larger number of athlete’s races were affected, here’s a short excerpt from Caroline Livesey’s race report (she went on to finish 12th in the female Pro race) about the end of her swim:

Determination kept me going but coming into T1 I knew I was in a bad way. I couldn’t really think straight so I just went onto auto pilot and transitioned onto the bike leg. I am pretty sure if anyone medically trained had stopped and checked me over I would have been delirious and probably have been pulled from the race. Apparently spectators were wondering out loud how on earth I was going to run a marathon when I could barely run in T1.

It is obvious from the number of athletes struggling that this is not a gender-specific issue and that the official water temperature was not an accurate reflection of conditions on race morning. Racing without a wetsuit should avoid overheating on the swim, but the dangers of hypothermia were clearly much bigger for the Pro athletes in Frankfurt.

Wetsuit Rules

Before offering some ideas on how to avoid a situation as in Frankfurt, it’s a good idea to review the rules as they stand.

The applicable rules for Ironman races state in Section 4.02 (Wetsuit Rules):

(a) For professional athletes, wetsuits may be worn in water temperatures up to and including 21.9 degrees C/71.5 degrees F;

The cutoff temperature was reduced from 76.1 degrees Fahrenheit (24.5 degrees C) in 2014 to align more closely with changes in the ITU rules. These are as follows (Section 4.2 Wetsuit Use):

ITU Wetsuit

In addition the ITU rules have a section (Section 4.3 Modifications) on shortening or cancelling the swim in certain conditions:

ITUShortening

Air temperatures also play a role on how big the danger of hypothermia is – in cold temperatures athletes will be shivering in the final minutes before the race start, and it becomes much harder to dry and get warm once on the bike. Therefore Section 4.3 also contains a table that shows how to decrease the measured water temperature to account for low air temperatures:

ITUAdjustTemperature

However, this table only applies for water temperatures below 22°C and – at least the way I understand the wording of the rules – is only to be used in determining to shorten or cancel the swim, but not for the decision to allow a wetsuit or not.

In order to to deal with special conditions not covered by the previous rules there is a catch-all rule (also in Section 4.3) that gives extra powers to the referees:

b.) If other weather conditions dictate, i.e., high winds, heavy rain, changing temperature, current, etc. the Technical and Medical Delegates may adapt limits of the swim length or adopt provisions about the use of wetsuit.

However,  I’m not aware of a similar provision in the Ironman rules and it was not invoked on race morning of IM Frankfurt.

To sum up, if the measured water temperature of 22.6°C is deemed correct, then the current rules directly imply a non-wetsuit swim.

Suggestions

If the current rules in place put athletes in danger as has happened in Frankfurt, obviously they need to be changed to avoid similar occurrences.

Rethink the Cutoff Temperature for IM Racing

Ironman has much bigger experience in organizing long-distance triathlons than the ITU that is primarily concerned with racing on the Olympic Distance. The ITU rules make a distinction between Olympic Distance swims (1.5k) and those longer, but of course there is a large difference between racing a 70.3 swim (1.9k) and an Ironman swim (3.8k), and the use of wetsuits in Professional long-distance races seems to be an issue that both organizations should discuss and maybe adjust their rulebooks.

Uniformly Adjust the Water Temperature

Rather than simply adjusting the cutoff temperature as discussed in the previous section, my suggestion is to extend the water temperature adjustment procedures and base all decisions off that modified temperature. In order to be used for these cases the table needs to be extended for warmer water temperatures, at least up to 25°C or even higher to make the table applicable for agegroup racing as well. (To my engineering mind, there’s also no clear description on which row/column to use, for example does a temperature of 22.6°C correspond to the row of 22°C or should it be rounded up and then correspond to the 23°C row.) This would still not address situations with large differences between warm water and cold air temperatures (for example 25°C water and 8°C air temperature), so Ironman rules should allow referees to make a call on race day.

If we assume that this modified temperature rule was in place and there was an air temperature of 15°C (it probably was even lower an hour before the start), then the adjusted temperature would be 21°C, clearly under the Pro cutoff temperature. If this adjusted temperature had been used in making the decision about allowing wetsuits, IM Frankfurt would have been a wetsuit race and most of the issues we saw could have been avoided.

Discuss with the ITU, Federations and Ironman

Of course change is not going to happen on its own, so Pro athletes, coaches etc. have to make  the ITU, their local federations and Ironman aware of this issue and encourage them to better address it in the rules. While I have suggested a possible solution above, there may be other (and better) ways of updating the rules. An open discussion about the changes would surely be appreciated by many athletes, especially those that barely escaped without lasting damage from racing an Ironman.

Challenge Roth 2016 (July 17th) – Predictions

ChallengeRothLogoUpdate July 11th: Daniela Ryf is a thrilling late addition to the women’s field. With her in the race I have recalculated my odds as well.

Update July 9th: Unfortunately, Meredith Kessler has to take care of an injury that was slowing her down in this season and won’t be racing Roth. Get better soon, MBK! I’ve also crossed out Susie Cheetham who announced a while ago that she won’t be able to race.

Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2005 Chris McCormack (AUS) 07:58:45 Belinda Granger (AUS) 09:14:06
2006 Chris McCormack (AUS) 08:00:52 Joanna Lawn (NZL) 09:01:17
2007 Chris McCormack (AUS) 07:54:23 Yvonne Van Vlerken (NED) 08:51:55
2008 Patrick Vernay (NCL) 08:09:34 Yvonne Van Vlerken (NED) 08:45:48
2009 Michael Goehner (GER) 07:55:53 Chrissie Wellington (GBR) 08:31:59
2010 Rasmus Henning (DEN) 07:52:36 Chrissie Wellington (GBR) 08:19:13
2011 Andreas Raelert (GER) 07:41:33 Chrissie Wellington (GBR) 08:18:13
2012 James Cunnama (ZAF) 07:59:59 Rachel Joyce (GBR) 08:45:04
2013 Dirk Bockel (LUX) 07:52:01 Caroline Steffen (SUI) 08:40:35
2014 Timo Bracht (GER) 07:56:00 Mirinda Carfrae (AUS) 08:38:53
2015 Nils Frommhold (GER) 07:51:28 Yvonne Van Vlerken (NED) 08:50:53

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Nils Frommhold GER 00:47:33 04:09:30 02:51:47 07:51:28
2 Timo Bracht GER 00:47:37 04:20:42 02:45:33 07:56:31
3 David Dellow AUS 00:47:35 04:20:24 02:48:12 07:59:28

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Yvonne Van Vlerken NED 00:54:46 04:47:34 03:05:43 08:50:53
2 Carrie Lester AUS 00:52:09 04:47:43 03:09:50 08:53:09
3 Anja Beranek GER 00:49:20 04:47:58 03:14:55 08:55:19

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 07:41:33 Andreas Raelert 2011-07-10
Swim overall 00:45:57 Pete Jacobs 2009-07-12
Bike overall 04:09:13 Andrew Starykowicz 2015-07-12
Run overall 02:39:43 Rasmus Henning 2010-07-18
Total female 08:18:13 Chrissie Wellington 2011-07-10
Swim female 00:47:27 Ute Mueckel 2005-06-24
Bike female 04:36:33 Chrissie Wellington 2010-07-18
Run female 02:44:35 Chrissie Wellington 2011-07-10

Course Rating

The Course Rating for Challenge Roth is 18:49.

Race Adjustments for Challenge Roth

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Finishers Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2005 18:02 01:08 13:32 05:29 28 18:02 01:08 13:32 05:29
2006 12:19 01:18 06:23 03:08 41 15:10 01:13 09:57 04:18
2007 23:37 00:54 10:36 07:18 35 17:59 01:07 10:10 05:18
2008 21:38 01:58 06:55 08:02 40 18:54 01:20 09:21 05:59
2009 26:32 02:06 15:53 05:03 43 20:26 01:29 10:40 05:48
2010 18:19 00:29 06:54 05:38 43 20:05 01:19 10:02 05:46
2011 20:53 01:52 15:28 05:42 38 20:11 01:24 10:49 05:46
2012 14:26 02:25 05:11 04:43 50 19:28 01:31 10:06 05:38
2013 21:21 00:30 13:41 04:53 41 19:41 01:25 10:30 05:33
2014 10:21 -00:06 13:01 -01:13 37 18:45 01:15 10:45 04:52
2015 19:36 01:18 11:56 04:15 44 of 56 18:49 01:16 10:52 04:49

Male Race Participants

Roth does not have a “Pro” Category per se, so I may have missed some of the Professional athletes racing.

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Consistency Overall
1 2 Jan Frodeno GER 07:55:26 08:11:20 00:45:24 04:20:13 02:44:48 80% +20% -0% (5) 1
2 1 Nils Frommhold GER 07:55:57 08:20:44 00:46:41 04:13:31 02:50:45 78% +0% -22% (7) 6
3 3 Tyler Butterfield BMU 08:13:32 08:35:20 00:47:26 04:26:41 02:54:24 46% +24% -30% (11) 40
4 7 Joe Skipper GBR 08:15:15 08:33:35 00:52:53 04:26:14 02:51:08 51% +27% -22% (11) 32
5 5 Cyril Viennot FRA 08:16:01 08:34:12 00:48:59 04:28:27 02:53:35 63% +24% -13% (15) 35
6 4 Per Bittner GER 08:16:09 08:42:19 00:47:41 04:27:20 02:56:07 52% +17% -31% (17) 64
7 6 Jan Raphael GER 08:24:21 08:38:32 00:47:23 04:34:25 02:57:32 91% +0% -9% (22) 53
8 8 Martin Jensen DEN 08:27:20 08:39:21 00:49:09 04:35:35 02:57:36 100% +0% -0% (3) (55)
9 9 Thomas Hellriegel GER 08:31:59 09:09:16 00:49:57 04:24:12 03:12:50 22% +8% -69% (6) (164)
10 10 Andreas Linden SWE 08:33:07 09:07:45 00:57:28 04:20:24 03:10:15 49% +0% -51% (2) (159)
11 21 Bernd Hagen GER 08:35:53 09:06:41 00:54:32 04:41:03 02:55:19 99% +1% -0% (13) (158)
12 14 Marcel Bischof GER 08:44:43 09:15:43 00:54:53 04:42:06 03:02:44 83% +17% -0% (13) 190
13 18 Xavier Diepart BEL 08:49:56 09:11:54 00:55:15 04:47:56 03:01:45 80% +14% -6% (8) (175)
14 24 Tjardo Visser NED 08:56:00 09:26:32 00:50:45 04:58:47 03:01:28 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (216)
15 16 Luke Dragstra CAN 08:59:05 09:27:35 00:52:01 04:47:49 03:14:15 14% +2% -84% (22) 220
16 23 Thomas Naasz NED 08:59:45 09:27:06 00:54:33 04:49:27 03:10:46 100% +0% -0% (5) 217
17 27 Ivan Jezko SVK 09:13:03 09:42:32 00:58:53 04:54:00 03:15:11 42% +23% -34% (11) 257
18 12 Christian Jais GER 09:20:36 09:55:28 00:54:55 04:48:38 03:32:03 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (274)
19 26 Jeremy Howard USA 09:43:52 10:14:55 00:51:24 05:14:35 03:32:53 48% +0% -52% (2) (291)
20 25 Rob Bobbaers BEL 09:44:50 10:18:08 00:59:17 04:55:46 03:44:47 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (292)
21 28 Henry Beck GER 09:57:56 10:35:08 00:47:42 04:49:21 04:15:53 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (297)
11 Robert Duncan USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (1 IM Pro race) (n/a)
13 Tobias Heining GER n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
15 Daniel Mugica Corrales ESP n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
17 Nick Kastelein AUS n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
19 Lukas Storath GER n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
20 Jurgen Van Oevelen BEL n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
22 Fabian Rahn GER n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Consistency Overall
1 Daniela Ryf SUI 08:42:19 09:05:05 00:50:40 04:45:17 03:01:21 71% +0% -29% (6) 2
1 51 Yvonne Van Vlerken NED 08:54:44 09:17:16 00:56:01 04:47:34 03:06:09 84% +0% -16% (23) 10
2 55 Meredith Kessler USA 08:56:01 09:17:50 00:48:23 04:54:13 03:08:25 65% +14% -20% (23) 12
3 53 Anja Beranek GER 08:59:25 09:19:16 00:49:40 04:48:56 03:15:49 83% +6% -11% (7) 15
4 52 Carrie Lester AUS 09:01:22 09:29:35 00:52:27 04:54:55 03:09:00 58% +24% -17% (18) 26
5 57 Susie Cheetham GBR 09:01:26 09:16:19 00:53:32 05:02:41 03:00:13 100% +0% -0% (4) 8
6 56 Michelle Vesterby DEN 09:02:23 09:22:59 00:50:26 04:55:30 03:11:27 71% +4% -25% (17) 18
7 54 Mary Beth Ellis USA 09:03:29 09:17:57 00:49:53 04:53:27 03:15:08 93% +0% -7% (17) 13
8 61 Laura Siddall GBR 09:12:12 09:43:20 00:56:05 04:54:19 03:16:47 41% +44% -15% (6) 55
9 60 Erika Csomor HUN 09:13:02 09:33:50 00:57:35 05:00:43 03:09:45 81% +0% -19% (33) 39
10 58 Mirjam Weerd NED 09:15:08 09:39:58 00:51:54 04:59:22 03:18:52 85% +5% -10% (12) 49
11 67 Jessica Fleming AUS 09:32:01 09:53:57 00:59:04 05:03:27 03:24:30 88% +0% -12% (7) 81
12 69 Kathryn Haesner NZL 09:35:09 10:24:49 00:55:41 05:15:59 03:18:30 41% +59% -0% (2) (148)
13 63 Monique Grossrieder SUI 09:40:31 10:08:08 01:02:54 05:14:59 03:17:38 45% +23% -32% (6) (106)
14 68 Carla Van Rooijen NED 09:50:56 10:17:21 01:11:04 05:15:07 03:19:45 78% +22% -0% (6) 122
15 62 Caroline Gregory USA 09:51:50 10:20:21 00:54:32 05:28:50 03:23:28 59% +9% -32% (12) 131
16 64 Michelle Duffield AUS 09:55:28 10:20:34 01:00:08 05:21:03 03:29:17 77% +0% -23% (6) 132
17 74 Line Foss NOR 10:08:56 11:09:05 01:22:33 05:05:22 03:36:01 23% +24% -53% (4) (173)
18 66 Fabiola Corona MEX 10:13:29 10:48:25 00:57:27 05:30:23 03:40:39 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (169)
59 Rachel McBride CAN n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
65 Franzi Bossow GER n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
70 Jenny Latham GBR n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
71 Tereza Durdiakova CZE n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
72 Carole Fuchs THA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (1 IM Pro race) (n/a)
73 Jenny Fletcher CAN n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
75 Daniela Zoll GER n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

Kona Champion Jan Frodeno is the clear favorite for this race – he’d love to get close or even beat Andreas Reeler’s 7:41 from 2011. But based on the “raw numbers” last year’s winner Nils Frommhold could get close and will be there if “Frodo” shows any sign of weakness.

  • Jan Frodeno: 38% (2-1)
  • Nils Frommhold: 27% (3-1)
  • Tyler Butterfield: 10% (9-1)
  • Joe Skipper: 10% (9-1)
  • Cyril Viennot: 8% (11-1)

Female Race Participants

Yvonne Van Vlerken is already the female with the most sub-9 finishes – she has ten, ahead of Chrissie Wellington’s nine. She has won in Roth three times (same number as Chrissie) and would like to move ahead in this statistic as well.

  • Yvonne Van Vlerken: 36% (2-1)
  • Meredith Kessler: 25% (3-1)
  • Carrie Lester: 16% (5-1)
  • Michelle Vesterby: 12% (7-1)
  • Anja Beranek: 7% (12-1)

Here are the odds after Daniela Ryf has been added to the field:

  • Daniela Ryf: 60% (1-1)
  • Yvonne Van Vlerken: 14% (6-1)
  • Carrie Lester: 10% (9-1)
  • Michelle Vesterby: 10% (9-1)
  • Anja Beranek: 6% (17-1)

Ironman UK 2016 (July 17th) – Predictions

Update July 10th: Congratulations to Brad Williams on the birth of his first child. Of course that takes precedence over racing.

IMUK LogoPrevious Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2009 Philip Graves (GBR) 08:45:52 Bella Bayliss (GBR) 09:34:00
2010 Fraser Cartmell (GBR) 08:40:18 Yvette Grice (GBR) 10:01:03
2011 Aaron Farlow (AUS) 08:24:34 Kristin Moeller (GER) 09:19:04
2012 Daniel Halksworth (GBR) 08:55:11 Eimear Mullan (IRL) 10:08:44
2013 Daniel Halksworth (GBR) 08:45:48 Lucy Gossage (GBR) 09:29:12
2014 Cyril Viennot (FRA) 08:44:10 Tamsin Lewis (GBR) 09:52:12
2015 David McNamee (GBR) 08:46:37 Lucy Gossage (GBR) 09:31:58

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 David McNamee GBR 00:48:01 05:02:34 02:51:48 08:46:37
2 Fraser Cartmell GBR 00:48:28 04:58:39 02:59:52 08:51:06
3 Joe Skipper GBR 00:56:06 04:58:30 02:55:44 08:55:38

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Lucy Gossage GBR 00:59:11 05:22:56 03:03:43 09:31:58
2 Caroline Livesey GBR 01:01:03 05:36:36 03:21:07 10:05:21
3 Alice Hector GBR 00:56:49 05:59:01 03:16:06 10:18:46

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:24:34 Aaron Farlow 2011-07-31
Swim overall 00:43:35 Fraser Cartmell 2010-08-01
Bike overall 04:50:48 Cyril Viennot 2014-07-20
Run overall 02:41:46 Aaron Farlow 2011-07-31
Total female 09:19:04 Kristin Moeller 2011-07-31
Swim female 00:48:19 Amanda Stevens 2012-07-22
Bike female 05:22:13 Lucy Gossage 2013-08-04
Run female 02:41:57 Kristin Moeller 2011-07-31

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM UK is – 03:43.

Race Adjustments for IM UK

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Finishers Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2009 02:29 -03:02 -10:14 10:31 20 02:29 -03:02 -10:14 10:31
2010 01:11 04:35 -23:58 09:10 14 01:50 00:46 -17:06 09:50
2011 08:38 04:47 -14:27 22:54 16 04:06 02:07 -16:13 14:12
2012 -06:47 00:02 -09:59 02:04 11 01:23 01:35 -14:40 11:10
2013 -05:23 04:05 -12:08 02:59 15 00:02 02:05 -14:09 09:32
2014 -09:47 01:11 -14:57 01:20 16 of 21 -01:36 01:56 -14:17 08:10
2015 -16:19 -01:11 -20:05 00:55 20 of 24 -03:43 01:29 -15:07 07:08

KPR points and Prize Money

IM UK is a P-2000 race. It has a total prize purse of 50.000 US$.

Female Race Participants

Similar to IM Frankfurt, the defending women’s champion has the honor of racing with bib #1.

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Consistency Overall
1 1 Lucy Gossage GBR 09:20:22 09:17:37 00:56:19 05:17:58 03:01:05 92% +0% -8% (12) 11
2 2 Tine Deckers BEL 09:34:52 09:28:30 00:56:56 05:20:32 03:12:25 58% +9% -33% (18) 24
3 3 Kristin Moeller GER 09:39:11 09:35:55 01:00:50 05:37:14 02:56:08 83% +15% -2% (17) 41
4 6 Katja Konschak GER 09:43:56 09:53:47 00:51:40 05:42:03 03:05:13 39% +43% -18% (16) 80
5 4 Lucy Charles GBR 09:53:49 10:01:38 00:45:46 05:41:16 03:21:48 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (95)
6 7 Kate Comber GBR 10:04:23 10:06:14 00:52:15 05:45:10 03:21:58 100% +0% -0% (2) (102)
7 8 Vicky Gill GBR 10:06:30 10:25:04 01:02:37 05:39:39 03:19:14 10% +46% -44% (3) (148)
8 5 Alyssa Godesky USA 10:20:55 10:21:50 00:59:40 05:53:01 03:23:14 61% +20% -19% (11) 134

Male Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Consistency Overall
1 35 Fraser Cartmell GBR 08:42:07 08:48:19 00:46:27 04:53:22 02:57:18 57% +14% -28% (9) 81
2 21 Michael Raelert GER 08:42:21 08:47:46 00:46:15 04:57:51 02:53:15 11% +20% -69% (4) (79)
3 24 Romain Guillaume FRA 08:43:56 08:44:11 00:47:10 04:52:21 02:59:25 61% +20% -19% (27) 67
4 27 Kirill Kotshegarov EST 08:44:28 08:49:21 00:51:51 04:53:30 02:54:06 61% +19% -20% (11) 87
5 25 Andrej Vistica CRO 08:46:15 08:44:28 00:51:52 04:57:19 02:52:04 75% +0% -25% (10) 68
6 26 Fabio Carvalho BRA 08:46:59 09:16:16 00:46:07 05:06:13 02:49:38 2% +39% -59% (9) 193
7 29 Ritchie Nicholls GBR 08:50:40 08:58:34 00:48:45 05:11:39 02:45:17 47% +0% -53% (4) (118)
8 31 Denis Sketako SLO 08:52:07 08:58:52 00:52:25 04:57:36 02:57:06 51% +49% -0% (3) 120
9 23 Harry Wiltshire GBR 08:53:51 08:53:05 00:46:08 05:03:06 02:59:37 26% +32% -42% (14) 98
10 22 Markus Thomschke GER 08:54:01 08:57:39 00:51:34 04:55:11 03:02:17 62% +12% -26% (15) 116
11 34 Karl-Johan Danielsson SWE 08:59:36 09:03:01 00:49:24 04:55:21 03:09:50 35% +31% -34% (9) 139
12 36 Patrick Evoe USA 09:03:37 08:57:10 00:54:26 05:01:06 03:03:05 87% +4% -9% (22) 112
13 28 Nick Baldwin SEY 09:04:46 09:02:31 00:51:36 05:03:45 03:04:25 60% +0% -40% (16) 136
14 33 Simon Billeau FRA 09:06:53 09:03:29 00:53:00 04:58:47 03:10:06 43% +0% -57% (17) 142
15 38 Graeme Stewart GBR 09:09:45 09:10:34 00:52:39 05:11:52 03:00:13 53% +9% -38% (12) 168
16 32 Oliver Simon GBR 09:21:18 09:38:53 00:47:42 05:10:09 03:18:26 55% +0% -45% (12) 251
17 30 Brad Williams USA 09:27:25 09:46:13 00:54:46 05:13:26 03:14:13 76% +0% -24% (4) 264
18 37 Eneko Elosegui ESP 09:32:29 09:38:41 00:56:09 05:09:13 03:22:06 73% +25% -1% (14) 250
19 39 Peter Kern GER 09:38:13 10:02:53 00:54:28 05:15:53 03:22:52 16% +0% -84% (7) (284)
40 Chris Whitcombe GBR n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)

KPR Situation

Female Race Participants

On the women’s side defending champion and race favorite Lucy Gossage is already safe for Kona. I also consider Katja Konschak safe at 4.860 points after finishing second at IM Germany, but she said she wants to be absolutely certain of qualifying and wants to control things herself. Among the others, the following athletes still have a chance for a July slot

  • Tine Deckers (3840), needs a 3rd place
  • Kristin Moeller (3145), needs a 2nd place

Male Race Participants

There are quite a large number of athletes that are still looking to secure a July slot, here’s the result they roughly need:

  • 6th: Michael Raelert
  • 4th: Markus Thomschke
  • 3rd: Harry Wiltshire, Romain Guillaume
  • 2nd: Andrej Vistica, Fabio Carvalho, Kirill Kotshegarov

Winning Odds

Female Race Participants

  • Lucy Gossage: 65% (1-1)
  • Tine Deckers: 16% (5-1)
  • Kristin Moeller: 9% (10-1)
  • Katja Konschak: 9% (10-1)

Male Race Participants

  • Fraser Cartmell: 26% (3-1)
  • Kirill Kotshegarov: 19% (4-1)
  • Romain Guillaume: 17% (5-1)
  • Michael Raelert: 12% (7-1)
  • Andrej Vistica: 10% (9-1)
  • Harry Wiltshire: 6% (15-1)

Ironman Frankfurt 2016 – Analyzing Results

Race Conditions

After last year’s record heat, this year the conditions were much colder and included some showers on the run that probably helped those that were running fast. Both Sebastian Kienle and Andi Boecherer ran new marathon PRs in their battle for the win and Will Clarke was able to post a new run course record – his 2:42:08 beat Timo Bracht’s time from 2008.

Overall conditions were fast as is typical for Frankfurt (adjustment of 12:48 leading to a new course rating of 11:58). This year the biggest impact on the race was probably the swim. With an official temperature of 22.6°C it was decided to not allow wetsuits, but a lot of Pros were battling hypothermia, most notable Daniela Ryf who was forced to DNF early on the bike. 

Male Race Results

The Top 3 finishers came off the bike together, but Eneko Llanos quickly lost contact to Sebastian Kienle and Andi Böcherer who ran shoulder-to-shoulder for some time. Sebi was slowly able to move away and build a small lead, but towards the end Andi put in another effort but couldn’t quite close the gap. Eneko struggled in the second and third loop and lost third place to Marko Albert, but a strong last lap allowed him to grab the last spot on the podium.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected Prize Money
1 Sebastian Kienle GER 00:52:12 04:12:12 02:44:12 07:52:43 -12:34 US$ 30000
2 Andi Boecherer GER 00:48:41 04:15:27 02:45:02 07:53:40 -27:07 US$ 15000
3 Eneko Llanos ESP 00:49:11 04:15:21 03:00:33 08:09:08 -02:26 US$ 8000
4 Marko Albert EST 00:48:12 04:22:04 02:57:33 08:11:38 -12:55 US$ 6500
5 Will Clarke GBR 00:52:17 04:36:01 02:42:08 08:14:56 -32:18 US$ 5000
6 Christian Kramer GER 00:48:34 04:32:35 02:51:44 08:18:14 -08:40 US$ 3500
7 Denis Chevrot FRA 00:48:14 04:39:39 02:47:33 08:19:59 -05:07 US$ 2500
8 Bertrand Billard FRA 00:52:15 04:35:49 02:53:58 08:26:27 -20:00 US$ 2000
9 Marc Duelsen GER 00:54:23 04:34:23 02:53:32 08:26:59 03:21 US$ 1500
10 Johann Ackermann GER 00:48:25 04:31:09 03:06:41 08:31:06 05:42 US$ 1000
11 Alexander Schilling GER 00:48:34 04:41:33 03:00:49 08:35:08 n/a  
12 Jeremy Jurkiewicz FRA 00:52:10 04:49:08 02:53:53 08:39:57 12:18  
13 Youri Severin NED 00:48:26 04:41:43 03:11:09 08:45:38 n/a  
14 Daniil Sapunov UKR 00:50:51 04:57:15 03:01:35 08:55:19 12:22  
15 Balazs Csoke HUN 00:48:32 04:48:23 03:15:01 08:57:25 10:18  
16 Mike Schifferle SUI 01:04:25 04:44:16 02:58:59 08:57:45 08:15  
17 Igor Amorelli BRA 00:48:35 04:30:47 03:34:59 08:58:42 30:32  
18 Michael Louys BEL 01:05:31 04:43:21 03:04:05 08:58:45 -14:48  
19 Pascal Ramali GER 01:01:03 04:41:46 03:17:46 09:05:12 34:52  
20 Hywel Davies GBR 01:06:12 04:53:10 02:58:22 09:05:54 -00:04  
21 Julian Mutterer GER 00:52:14 04:37:30 03:32:01 09:06:12 25:32  
22 Maciej Chmura POL 00:52:03 05:04:20 03:07:09 09:08:33 n/a  
23 Young Hwan Oh KOR 01:07:38 04:56:43 02:58:49 09:09:14 -23:47  
24 David Jilek CZE 00:59:10 04:50:53 03:16:34 09:12:07 -10:34  
25 Timothy O’Donnell USA 00:48:31 04:39:34 03:39:55 09:12:58 59:03  
26 Ivan Jezko SVK 01:03:00 04:55:53 03:11:21 09:17:29 -07:20  
27 Vincent Depuiset FRA 01:12:01 05:01:08 03:09:31 09:29:21 -10:41  
28 Ludovic Le Guellec FRA 00:59:31 05:07:34 03:30:30 09:44:37 -08:43  
29 David Krupicka CZE 01:06:26 05:14:39 04:07:11 10:35:07 07:28  
  Joe Gambles AUS 00:48:39 04:48:54   DNF    
  Victor Del Corral ESP 00:59:00 04:42:56   DNF    
  Christian Brader GER 00:58:52 04:49:43   DNF    
  Thomas Bosch GER 00:59:02 04:49:49   DNF    
  Bas Diederen NED 00:48:36 05:18:57   DNF    
  Michal Volejnik CZE 01:03:56 05:10:25   DNF    
  Timo Moeschk GER 01:16:24 05:08:15   DNF    
  Petr Bednar CZE 01:06:25 05:25:27   DNF    
  Marek Nemcik SVK 01:13:48 05:48:50   DNF    
  Ivan Risti ITA 00:48:27     DNF    
  Clemente Alonso McKernan ESP 00:49:09     DNF    
  Marton Flander HUN 00:52:18     DNF    
  Gilian Oriet SUI 00:59:03     DNF    
  Gudmund Snilstveit NOR 01:04:43     DNF    
  Alfred Rahm GER 01:07:52     DNF    

Female Race Results

After pre-race favorite Daniela Ryf was in trouble after getting extremely cold on the swim, Natascha Schmitt was leading the race into T2. But Mel Hauschildt was running a good deal faster and took the lead in the second loop. When even an unjustified stop-and-go penalty on the run couldn’t derail her, she won IM Germany, an Automatic Qualifier slot and continued her streak of being unbeaten in an Ironman (3 wins in 3 starts). There were a lot of late position changes behind Mel, eventually Katja Konschak ran herself into second place with the best run of the day. Daniela Sämmler finished third with a solid bike/run-combo while Natascha Schmitt dropped back into fourth place. Verena Walter in fifth was the fourth German in the Top 5.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected Prize Money
1 Melissa Hauschildt AUS 00:59:15 04:57:10 03:00:12 09:01:17 -06:52 US$ 30000
2 Katja Konschak GER 00:56:05 05:06:45 02:59:29 09:09:58 -36:46 US$ 15000
3 Daniela Saemmler GER 00:58:18 04:56:54 03:12:47 09:13:23 -08:07 US$ 8000
4 Natascha Schmitt GER 00:55:57 04:54:15 03:21:43 09:16:40 -29:42 US$ 6500
5 Verena Walter GER 01:01:45 04:55:49 03:16:04 09:18:58 -24:26 US$ 5000
6 Saleta Castro Nogueira ESP 00:56:58 05:14:53 03:04:54 09:22:41 -28:49 US$ 3500
7 Dimity-Lee Duke AUS 00:59:18 05:06:09 03:19:16 09:30:48 -01:28 US$ 2500
8 Katharina Grohmann GER 01:13:48 05:06:06 03:07:20 09:31:54 -14:05 US$ 2000
9 Bianca Steurer AUT 00:59:19 05:14:46 03:19:14 09:37:59 04:11 US$ 1500
10 Petra Krejcova CZE 01:03:48 05:22:41 03:13:36 09:45:13 -07:34 US$ 1000
11 Celia Kuch GER 01:06:30 05:13:13 03:27:29 09:53:24 -06:06  
12 Caroline Livesey GBR 01:06:36 05:13:13 03:32:34 10:00:24 17:53  
13 Christine Fletcher CAN 01:03:30 05:15:03 03:49:02 10:17:20 21:26  
14 Lotty Harari PAN 01:10:55 05:20:18 03:45:21 10:23:23 n/a  
15 Mariana Andrade BRA 01:00:13 05:15:14 04:17:05 10:37:31 41:12  
  Astrid Stienen GER 01:00:20 05:00:53   DNF    
  Daniela Ryf SUI 00:53:45     DNF    
  Diana Riesler GER       DNF    
  Kristin Möller GER       DNF    

Gallery from Bike Checkin at IM Germany 2016

One day before IM Germany in Frankfurt athletes checked in their bikes into T1 at the “Langener Waldsee”. I was able to see most of them and snap a few pictures. For the whole Pro field, have a look at my predictions post.

At first it was raining quite hard, and athletes improvised ways to cover their bikes. Balasz Csoke used a few plastic bags to protect his drivetrain:

Balascz

Joe Gambles was more focused on covering the saddle and his aerobars:

Joe Gambles

Katharina Grohmann made sure that there weren’t any small stones lodged in her tires:

Katarina

When Celia Kuch dropped off her bike for one of her last Professional IMs, the rain had stopped:

Celia

Mel Hauschildt was smiling when she dropped her bike – she’ll be the big “wild card” tomorrow. Hopefully she’s fit and healthy:

Mel

Male favorite Sebastian Kienle has a new bike for this season with a very clean fronted:

Sebi Front

This year’s color scheme is much smoother than last year:

6a Sebi Color

Shortly after Sebi female favorite Daniela Ryf checked in. Both joked around that Sebi – racing with bib #51 – shouldn’t grab the #1 bike that belongs to Daniela:

Dani

No doubt who owns this bike:

Angry Bird

There will be a close fight for the podium, a lot of German females are eyeing third place and a very likely Kona slot. Among them is run course record holder Kristin Möller:

Kristin

Astrid Stienen has won IM Sweden last year, this year she has been building with a clear focus towards IM Frankfurt:

9 Astrid

Bianca Steurer from Austria is – other than Daniela – the female with the most Kona points in the field. She’ll look for a sixth place to qualify:

Bianca

Mariana Andrade is one of the small Brazilian contingent racing in Frankfurt:

Mariana

Eneko Llanos has won this race in 2013 – but as a late entry he was assigned bib #112:

Eneko

Another nice color scheme on the bike of Russian Pro Daniil Sapunov:

Daniil Sapunov

IM Texas Champion Patrick Lange is also racing, but only as part of a relay for the new title sponsor Mainova:

Patrick

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