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Ironman Brasil (May 29th) – Predictions

IMBRA_Logo Update May 28th: After the Pro briefing and thanks to a tweet by Witsup, we know that a few females won’t be racing, namely Kirsty Jahn, Mackenzie Madison, Molly Roohi, Tine Holst and Alexandra Moura. (I haven’t seen similar information for the men.)

Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2005 Olaf Sabatschus (GER) 08:50:37 Joanna Zeiger (USA) 09:31:43
2006 Oscar Galindez (ARG) 08:15:19 Lisbeth Kristensen (DEN) 09:20:47
2007 Oscar Galindez (ARG) 08:21:09 Nina Kraft (GER) 09:12:40
2008 Eduardo Sturla (ARG) 08:28:24 Fernanda Keller (BRA) 09:42:50
2009 Eduardo Sturla (ARG) 08:13:39 Dede Griesbauer (USA) 09:10:15
2010 Luke McKenzie (AUS) 08:07:38 Tereza Macel (CZE) 09:19:12
2011 Eduardo Sturla (ARG) 08:13:12 Amy Marsh (USA) 09:07:49
2012 Ezequiel Morales (ARG) 08:22:40 Sofie Goos (BEL) 09:17:42
2013 Timothy O’Donnell (USA) 08:01:32 Amanda Stevens (USA) 09:05:53
2014 Igor Amorelli (BRA) 08:07:54 Sara Gross (CAN) 08:56:35
2015 Marino Vanhoenacker (BEL) 07:53:44 Ariane Monticeli (BRA) 08:59:08

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Marino Vanhoenacker BEL 00:48:31 04:11:23 02:49:38 07:53:44
2 Timothy O’Donnell USA 00:47:03 04:19:26 02:45:52 07:55:56
3 Brent McMahon CAN 00:47:02 04:19:01 02:47:08 07:56:55

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Ariane Monticeli BRA 01:00:18 04:57:59 02:56:28 08:59:08
2 Elizabeth Lyles USA 00:57:49 04:54:31 03:03:04 09:00:31
3 Amanda Stevens USA 00:51:15 04:57:32 03:05:47 09:01:27

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 07:53:44 Marino Vanhoenacker 2015-05-31
Swim overall 00:42:26 Luke McKenzie 2010-05-30
Bike overall 04:11:23 Marino Vanhoenacker 2015-05-31
Run overall 02:44:31 Matt Trautman 2015-05-31
Total female 08:56:35 Sara Gross 2014-05-25
Swim female 00:45:48 Dede Griesbauer 2010-05-30
Bike female 04:46:38 Jessie Donavan 2014-05-25
Run female 02:56:28 Ariane Monticeli 2015-05-31

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Brasil is 18:12.

Race Adjustments for IM Brasil

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Finishers Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2006 17:58 01:59 04:22 02:24 37 17:58 01:59 04:22 02:24
2007 14:36 -00:17 06:48 02:59 40 16:17 00:51 05:35 02:41
2008 09:37 -06:37 11:32 01:25 45 14:04 -01:38 07:34 02:16
2009 17:43 -00:30 09:27 04:57 39 14:59 -01:21 08:02 02:56
2010 21:43 04:13 09:54 01:16 42 16:20 -00:14 08:25 02:36
2011 20:54 n/a n/a n/a 29 17:05 -00:14 08:25 02:36
2012 16:21 02:26 21:44 -05:16 32 16:59 00:12 10:38 01:17
2013 16:51 02:40 16:25 03:59 41 of 45 16:58 00:33 11:27 01:41
2014 23:43 00:24 22:05 05:36 34 of 40 17:43 00:32 12:47 02:10
2015 22:37 -00:06 17:43 04:00 33 of 47 18:12 00:28 13:20 02:22

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Brasil is a P-4000 race and offers automatic qualifier slots for the winners. It has a total prize purse of 150.000 US$.

Male Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Consistency Overall
1 3 Brent McMahon CAN 08:01:58 08:16:31 00:46:38 04:21:30 02:48:50 100% +0% -0% (4) 3
2 30 Ronnie Schildknecht SUI 08:13:05 08:27:11 00:51:27 04:24:59 02:51:39 70% +1% -29% (26) 17
3 31 Stefan Schmid GER 08:13:44 08:37:19 00:51:39 04:23:08 02:53:57 44% +56% -0% (11) 43
4 10 Tim Don GBR 08:18:48 08:37:18 00:47:29 04:32:10 02:54:09 100% +0% -0% (2) (43)
5 28 Paul Matthews AUS 08:21:40 08:43:42 00:46:00 04:26:40 03:04:00 17% +0% -83% (8) 65
6 14 Chris McDonald AUS 08:22:26 08:44:04 00:52:45 04:25:59 02:58:42 62% +8% -30% (41) 68
7 4 Guilherme Manocchio BRA 08:23:00 08:45:40 00:49:21 04:30:04 02:58:34 61% +35% -4% (10) 74
8 15 Daniel Fontana ITA 08:24:15 08:46:08 00:48:35 04:31:59 02:58:40 61% +0% -39% (10) (76)
9 5 Mike Aigroz SUI 08:24:24 08:45:52 00:47:49 04:31:24 03:00:11 58% +4% -38% (20) 75
10 23 Kevin Collington USA 08:24:59 08:53:07 00:49:14 04:35:39 02:55:06 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (96)
11 29 Pedro Gomes POR 08:25:50 08:46:53 00:50:46 04:34:17 02:55:48 59% +6% -35% (21) 77
12 7 Anton Blokhin UKR 08:29:50 08:52:20 00:48:09 04:35:01 03:01:40 66% +3% -31% (18) 95
13 6 Frank Silvestrin BRA 08:31:35 09:03:31 00:47:59 04:36:43 03:01:54 46% +43% -11% (6) 133
14 22 Harry Wiltshire GBR 08:33:45 08:58:44 00:47:08 04:37:36 03:04:01 26% +32% -42% (14) 115
15 8 Mario De Elias ARG 08:36:30 09:04:46 00:50:58 04:44:21 02:56:11 49% +25% -26% (5) 145
16 27 Nick Baldwin SEY 08:40:35 09:02:44 00:51:41 04:36:55 03:06:59 55% +0% -45% (15) 129
17 9 Thiago Vinhal BRA 08:41:26 09:05:16 00:48:31 04:53:48 02:54:07 81% +0% -19% (9) 149
18 32 Will Clarke GBR 08:45:46 09:15:03 00:49:34 04:34:31 03:16:41 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (186)
19 26 Michael Davidson ZAF 08:52:12 09:13:33 00:55:57 04:45:00 03:06:15 54% +0% -46% (4) 180
20 20 Felipe De Oliveira Manente BRA 08:56:42 09:31:50 00:52:06 04:45:37 03:13:59 23% +9% -68% (7) 228
21 13 Brent Mcburney USA 09:17:56 10:04:49 00:57:34 04:55:46 03:19:36 22% +41% -38% (4) (279)
22 19 Fabio Carvalho BRA 09:18:00 10:10:53 00:46:47 05:00:31 03:25:42 3% +0% -97% (8) (285)
11 Alexandre Aguiar Moura BRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated 0% +0% -100% (2) (n/a)
16 Danilo Melo BRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
17 Diego Serda ARG n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
21 Fellipe Santos BRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
24 Luis Henrique Ohde BRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
25 Marcus Vinicius Fernandes BRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)

Female Race Participants

Also have a look at my profile of Liz Lyles.

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Consistency Overall
1 64 Elizabeth Lyles USA 09:06:45 09:27:30 00:56:07 05:00:28 03:05:10 50% +13% -37% (13) 23
2 51 Ariane Monticeli BRA 09:10:50 09:50:18 00:59:57 05:03:05 03:02:48 42% +35% -23% (13) 66
3 62 Caitlin Snow USA 09:15:15 09:34:56 00:55:38 05:09:36 03:05:01 64% +22% -14% (21) 41
4 75 Mareen Hufe GER 09:15:23 09:35:34 00:59:56 04:51:04 03:19:23 82% +6% -12% (20) 42
5 71 Kristin Moeller GER 09:15:58 09:33:47 01:02:53 05:06:45 03:01:21 79% +19% -2% (16) 39
6 72 Laurel Wassner USA 09:22:17 09:56:35 00:53:05 05:11:25 03:12:47 60% +0% -40% (7) 81
7 66 Gurutze Frades Larralde ESP 09:24:56 09:56:03 01:01:20 05:12:05 03:06:31 23% +77% -0% (5) 80
8 70 Kirsty Jahn CAN 09:26:12 10:03:43 00:58:57 05:12:20 03:09:55 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (96)
9 53 Mackenzie Madison USA 09:26:59 09:49:27 00:57:55 05:04:23 03:19:41 69% +0% -31% (11) 64
10 74 Lucie Reed CZE 09:27:56 09:47:55 00:50:48 05:07:40 03:24:28 62% +0% -38% (23) 62
11 69 Karina Ottosen DEN 09:31:05 10:03:57 00:57:38 05:05:19 03:23:09 24% +63% -13% (9) 97
12 76 Mariana Andrade BRA 09:33:58 10:23:09 00:59:19 04:58:10 03:31:30 20% +29% -51% (10) 143
13 65 Erin Spitler USA 09:35:34 10:18:46 01:05:23 05:00:57 03:24:14 21% +41% -38% (6) 129
14 52 Brooke Brown CAN 09:36:13 09:57:47 01:01:55 05:08:04 03:21:14 52% +0% -48% (6) 86
15 57 Saleta Castro Nogueira ESP 09:37:28 10:17:08 00:54:59 05:13:03 03:24:27 53% +47% -0% (8) 124
16 55 Vanessa Raw GBR 09:39:18 10:11:34 00:53:21 05:06:55 03:34:03 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (115)
17 77 Molly Roohi USA 09:54:49 10:16:54 01:04:12 05:17:31 03:28:05 100% +0% -0% (4) (122)
18 67 Helena Herrero Gomez ESP 10:02:56 10:24:55 01:00:15 05:37:44 03:19:57 78% +0% -22% (4) 152
61 Bruna Mahn BRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

A couple of athletes on the start list (such as Chris McDonald who raced Texas) are unlikely to start, but most of the pre-race favorites are committed to race in Florianopolis. Brent McMahon has had a number of really strong results including a third place in Brasil 2015 (behind Marino Vanhoenacker and Tim O’Donnell who won’t be racing Brasil this year). Stefan Schmid ended his 2015 season with a win in Cozumel and just needs a few more KPR points to secure his slot. Ronnie Schildknecht has already raced IM South Africa (finishing 9th), he also needs a few more points if he wants to return to Kona.

Behind these three athletes there is a number of athletes that are looking for a good result and the corresponding KPR points. Paul Matthews has been struggling a bit since racing Kona 2014, he was 17th in Brasil last year followed by two DNFs. As usual Tim Don has scored a ton of points in 70.3 races, he probably just needs to finish to secure his Kona ticket. Racing in his home country, Guillermo Manocchio will try to race at the same level as when he won IM Copenhagen last summer.

  • Brent McMahon: 36% (2-1)
  • Stefan Schmid: 26% (3-1)
  • Ronnie Schildknecht: 14% (6-1)
  • Paul Matthews: 8% (12-1)
  • Chris McDonald: 5% (18-1)
  • Guilherme Manocchio: 4% (24-1)
  • Tim Don: 2% (55-1)
Will Clarke is moving up from the 70.3 distance. With IM Lanzarote 2015 his debut IM wasn’t a good experience, but he has taken some time to regroup and it will be interesting to see how he’ll be able to perform.

Female Race Participants

Earlier versions of the startlist had a lot of names that were also racing in Texas, now the field is taking a clearer shape. Liz Lyles (second last year) is the pre-race favorite in front of defending champion Ariane Monticelli. Caitlin Snow, Mareen Hufe and Kristin Moller are strong podium contenders.

  • Elizabeth Lyles: 37% (2-1)
  • Ariane Monticeli: 24% (3-1)
  • Mareen Hufe: 14% (6-1)
  • Caitlin Snow: 10% (9-1)
  • Kristin Moeller: 6% (16-1)

Ironman Texas 2016 – Analyzing Results

Race Conditions

The shortened bike course makes a comparison with other Texas races very hard and I won’t consider this year’s results for my ratings or for course records. Linearly scaling the bike times from 94 to 112 miles doesn’t yield valid “full-distance times” – race times that are shorter by roughly 40 minutes create a different race dynamic. Nonetheless, I have analyzed the scaled race splits in the same way as for a “valid” IM. The splits are colored accordingly and a “diff to expected” is shown to indicate on how good some times have been. Of course all this analysis has to be taken with a grain of salt, but here are a few additional observations:

  • The male winning time by Patrick Lange would correspond to a sub-8 time, the female winning time by Julia Gajer to a sub-9 finish.
  • The last minute changes to the swim course didn’t have a major influence on the swim times – a swim adjustment of -1:39 is almost exactly the Texas average of -1:27.
  • Lauren Brandon had the fastest swim overall. (This is the first time that a female had the fastest swim since Sweden 2013, when Jodie Swallow lead the field.)
  • Most reports indicate that the new bike course wasn’t quite as hard to follow as anticipated, but there were a few tricky sections and also some car traffic on the course. Andy Starykowicz’s fastest bike time would roughly correspond to a 4:04 – very fast, but “almost normal” for Andy. Looking at the whole field, the bike times were quite comparable to the times we have seen in earlier years, maybe they would have been quicker by four to five minutes than in the past.
  • With the shortened bike course I also expected quicker run times. Some athletes had great runs – Patrick Lange’s winning marathon of 2:40:01 would have broken Matt Hanson’s course record, and there were two sub-3 runs in the women’s field by Lisa Roberts (3rd, fastest run split of 2:59:03) and Jodie Robertson (2nd). But we’ve also seen some “explosions” on the run: In addition to Andy Starykowicz who DNF’d, Lauren Brandon just broke four hours and Matt Hanson had to walk after running himself into 3rd place – eventually finishing 23rd. The adjustment would have been similar to what we’ve seen in Texas in the last few years.

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected Prize Money
1 Patrick Lange GER 00:48:57 03:39:28 02:40:01 07:13:13 n/a US$ 30000
2 Matthew Russell USA 00:56:41 03:31:47 02:48:14 07:21:56 -34:13 US$ 15000
3 Terenzo Bozzone NZL 00:48:59 03:39:27 02:52:53 07:25:55 -15:36 US$ 8000
4 Jeremy Jurkiewicz FRA 00:48:51 03:39:55 02:55:07 07:28:30 -19:38 US$ 6500
5 Clemente Alonso McKernan ESP 00:48:43 03:44:42 02:51:53 07:30:59 -02:24 US$ 5000
6 Justin Daerr USA 00:54:16 03:37:28 02:54:56 07:31:39 -22:18 US$ 3500
7 Chris McDonald AUS 00:55:59 03:32:30 02:59:55 07:33:08 -23:12 US$ 2500
8 Stephen Kilshaw CAN 00:55:20 03:33:16 03:00:29 07:34:01 -41:55 US$ 2000
9 Matic Modic SLO 00:56:48 03:40:53 02:52:18 07:35:08 -32:12 US$ 1500
10 Callum Millward NZL 00:51:02 03:38:32 03:01:15 07:36:23 01:37 US$ 1000
11 Barrett Brandon USA 00:48:45 03:40:02 03:06:38 07:40:37 -07:34  
12 Antony Costes FRA 00:48:55 03:39:50 03:08:56 07:42:03 -19:45  
13 Eneko Llanos ESP 00:49:31 03:38:37 03:09:23 07:42:41 11:02  
14 Michael Ruenz GER 00:56:40 03:42:15 02:58:28 07:42:50 -12:14  
15 Mauro Baertsch SUI 00:56:24 03:44:02 02:59:26 07:45:31 -15:42  
16 Francisco Serrano MEX 00:53:40 03:40:18 03:07:17 07:45:46 -16:06  
17 Eric Limkemann USA 00:49:54 03:38:37 03:15:00 07:48:42 01:50  
18 Samuel Huerzeler SUI 00:54:33 03:42:19 03:10:29 07:53:56 -22:45  
19 Matthew Curbeau USA 00:56:44 03:44:06 03:08:10 07:54:32 -32:58  
20 Jordan Rapp USA 00:54:25 03:33:47 03:22:01 07:55:18 17:55  
21 Jaroslav Kovacic SLO 00:49:02 03:43:02 03:21:41 07:59:12 -06:30  
22 Richie Cunningham AUS 00:53:40 03:46:17 03:14:35 08:00:17 22:01  
23 Matt Hanson USA 00:54:24 03:40:33 03:27:58 08:07:07 20:04  
24 Kirill Kotshegarov EST 00:54:27 03:33:15 03:37:56 08:11:30 18:20  
25 Douglas MacLean USA 00:56:54 03:55:57 03:14:45 08:16:04 -08:28  
26 Jozsef Major HUN 01:02:47 03:53:15 03:14:24 08:16:36 16:13  
27 Patrick Jaberg SUI 00:56:37 03:43:35 03:33:52 08:19:33 13:14  
28 Patrick Schuster USA 01:07:40 03:48:29 03:21:36 08:23:50 -19:05  
29 Denis Sketako SLO 00:56:34 03:55:54 03:28:54 08:26:09 15:05  
30 Andres Darricau Arg 00:56:27 03:52:25 03:44:58 08:39:51 01:45  
31 Mike Schifferle SUI 01:04:39 03:44:13 03:44:27 08:42:07 33:35  
32 Jonathan Fecik USA 00:56:33 03:55:45 03:50:27 08:48:40 -08:51  
33 Aaron Gray USA 00:56:31 03:55:18 04:54:59 09:53:08 n/a  
34 Scott Neyedli GBR 00:53:58 03:55:03 05:26:34 10:22:40 1:27:54  
  Andrew Starykowicz USA 00:48:51 03:24:44   DNF    
  Harry Wiltshire GBR 00:48:48 03:39:54   DNF    
  Swen Sundberg GER 00:54:31 03:34:18   DNF    
  Nils Frommhold GER 00:49:09 03:44:11   DNF    
  Jonathan Shearon USA 00:56:43 03:45:00   DNF    
  Pedro Gomes POR 00:53:55 03:49:40   DNF    
  Michael Weiss AUT 00:56:30 03:49:30   DNF    
  Trevor Delsaut FRA 00:55:23 04:04:04   DNF    
  Balazs Csoke HUN 00:48:54 04:11:25   DNF    
  AJ Baucco USA 00:53:54     DNF    

As the winner of the North American Regional championship Patrick Lange receives an Automatic Qualifier spot. Matt Russell and Terenzo Bozzone now have enough points to be safe for a July slot. Eneko Llanos hasn’t added too many points with his 13th place finish, but he validated his slot and is also safe now. Callum Millward is on the bubble, at 3.580 points he’s right at my projected cutoff of 3.500 points. He already has five results (his worst is 435 points), so it won’t be easy to improve his total. Jeremy Juekiewicz has 2.530 points (but only one IM and one 70.3 race), so he should be able to add some more points if he wants to qualify.

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected Prize Money
1 Julia Gajer GER 00:54:51 04:01:44 03:08:49 08:11:01 -09:39 US$ 30000
2 Jodie Robertson USA 01:07:21 04:01:55 02:59:26 08:16:30 n/a US$ 15000
3 Lisa Roberts USA 01:06:52 04:06:18 02:59:03 08:17:58 -16:40 US$ 8000
4 Kelly Williamson USA 00:54:49 04:17:11 03:04:33 08:22:06 -08:51 US$ 6500
5 Alicia Kaye USA 00:52:24 04:07:15 03:23:31 08:29:29 n/a US$ 5000
6 Christine Hammond USA 00:55:07 04:13:02 03:18:57 08:32:37 -25:54 US$ 3500
7 Jessica Meyers USA 00:57:51 04:10:34 03:24:42 08:39:11 -20:44 US$ 2500
8 Emma-Kate Lidbury GBR 00:55:13 04:09:01 03:34:03 08:45:13 07:25 US$ 2000
9 Katy Blakemore USA 00:54:33 04:16:30 03:29:52 08:46:22 02:07 US$ 1500
10 Jocelyn McCauley USA 00:57:31 04:02:20 03:41:32 08:47:09 -14:01 US$ 1000
11 Heather Leiggi USA 01:07:01 04:03:20 03:31:48 08:48:13 -22:05  
12 Lauren Brandon USA 00:48:32 04:02:16 03:56:38 08:52:48 n/a  
13 Christine Fletcher CAN 01:02:22 04:09:37 03:33:11 08:53:14 -18:20  
14 Bree Wee USA 00:57:46 04:10:44 03:55:47 09:10:38 26:42  
15 Amy Javens USA 01:12:22 04:02:53 03:50:17 09:12:38 -06:53  
16 Terry Casey USA 01:02:18 04:20:30 04:14:59 09:47:43 -02:48  
17 Caroline Martineau CAN 01:06:58 04:21:07 04:14:51 09:51:37 19:00  
18 Carrie Mccoy USA 01:30:20 04:25:08 03:50:39 09:53:57 n/a  
19 Jen Annett CAN 01:02:54 03:59:39 04:50:02 09:57:53 54:57  
20 Angela Kuehnlein GER 01:07:03 04:25:44 04:19:14 09:58:50 37:47  
  Rebekah Keat AUS 00:53:40 04:05:48   DNF    
  Kirsty Jahn CAN 01:02:15 04:04:21   DNF    
  Darbi Roberts USA 00:54:20 04:16:05   DNF    
  Saleta Castro Nogueira ESP 00:57:43 04:16:36   DNF    
  Liz Baugher USA 00:58:20 04:35:48   DNF    

After Kaisa Lehtonen as winner of IM South Africa, Julia Gajer is the second European Automatic Qualifier this year. Julia has raced an amazingly stable race, almost exactly hitting her predicted times, so even if her individual legs were in line with what could be expected, her overall time was a good deal quicker. Lisa Roberts also had a great race. She is well ahead of the projected cutoff of 4.500 points and safe for a July slot. Alicia Kaye has scored well, but needs to add to her 4.340 points if she wants to qualify – another good 70.3 result should be enough for her. Jodie Robertson (3.960) and Emma-Kate Lidbury (3.695, but already 5 results) have to plan how to best get the remaining points needed.

Ironman Lanzarote 2016 (May 21st) – Predictions

IMLanza Update May 13th: According to her blog, Jeanne Collonge won’t be able to race, she’s targeting IM France now. Also there are a number of athletes on the startlist for IM Texas, so we may see some late withdrawals in the days before the race.

Update May 18th: According BMC-Etixx Sports Director Ben De Wolf Romain Guillaume won’t start in Lanzarote but is focusing on IM Cairns instead.

Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2005 Ain-Alar Juhanson (EST) 08:55:38 Virginia Berasategui (ESP) 10:09:40
2006 Ain-Alar Juhanson (EST) 08:54:14 Karin Thuerig (SUI) 09:52:45
2007 Eneko Llanos (ESP) 08:49:39 Tiina Boman (FIN) 09:58:42
2008 Bert Jammaer (BEL) 08:59:40 Bella Bayliss (GBR) 10:02:30
2009 Bert Jammaer (BEL) 08:54:03 Bella Bayliss (GBR) 09:54:58
2010 Eneko Llanos (ESP) 08:37:43 Catriona Morrison (GBR) 10:03:53
2011 Timo Bracht (GER) 08:30:34 Rachel Joyce (GBR) 09:28:12
2012 Victor Del Corral (ESP) 08:44:39 Michelle Vesterby (DEN) 09:58:06
2013 Faris Al-Sultan (GER) 08:42:40 Kristin Moeller (GER) 09:37:34
2014 Romain Guillaume (FRA) 08:47:39 Lucy Gossage (GBR) 09:41:40
2015 Alessandro Degasperi (ITA) 08:56:49 Diana Riesler (GER) 09:56:03

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Alessandro Degasperi ITA 00:51:10 05:12:12 02:47:15 08:56:49
2 Christian Kramer GER 00:48:20 05:05:51 02:59:14 08:59:30
3 Mauro Baertsch SUI 00:52:04 05:10:48 02:54:13 09:04:45

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Diana Riesler GER 00:55:40 05:37:11 03:16:20 09:56:03
2 Michaela Herlbauer AUT 00:53:21 05:58:16 03:15:05 10:13:49
3 Caroline Livesey GBR 00:58:47 05:59:25 03:25:52 10:31:56

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:30:34 Timo Bracht 2011-05-21
Swim overall 00:46:15 Luc Van Lierde 2006-05-20
Bike overall 04:40:58 Maik Twelsiek 2010-05-22
Run overall 02:44:29 Gerrit Schellens 2005-06-04
Total female 09:28:12 Rachel Joyce 2011-05-21
Swim female 00:50:40 Hillary Biscay 2010-05-22
Bike female 05:26:23 Tara Norton 2010-05-22
Run female 02:58:37 Kristin Moeller 2013-05-18

It’s quite unusual that an overall course record race isn’t showing up in any of the individual legs. This shows that – even more than in other races – the winner in Lanzarote has to have a balanced race across all three legs.

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Lanzarote is – 14:36.

Race Adjustments for IM Lanzarote

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Finishers Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2006 -07:10 02:21 -20:46 01:20 45 -07:10 02:21 -20:46 01:20
2007 -12:01 -01:04 -09:17 -04:09 40 -09:36 00:39 -15:02 -01:24
2008 -13:09 00:47 -18:11 04:48 47 -10:47 00:41 -16:05 00:40
2009 -09:01 -00:08 -14:46 03:52 44 -10:20 00:29 -15:45 01:28
2010 -07:07 01:33 -09:39 00:08 34 -09:42 00:42 -14:32 01:12
2011 -08:23 02:22 -16:18 05:15 23 -09:29 00:59 -14:50 01:52
2012 -17:54 00:53 -17:29 04:32 22 -10:41 00:58 -15:12 02:15
2013 -19:06 00:22 -19:39 03:19 19 of 31 -11:44 00:53 -15:46 02:23
2014 -23:49 00:50 -18:18 -01:38 37 of 56 -13:04 00:53 -16:03 01:56
2015 -28:18 01:14 -31:00 00:13 29 of 44 -14:36 00:55 -17:32 01:46

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Lanzarote is a P-2000 race. It has a total prize purse of 25.000 US$.

Male Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Consistency Overall
1 1 Jan Frodeno GER 08:21:26 08:07:22 00:45:38 04:44:00 02:46:47 71% +29% -0% (4) 1
2 3 Timo Bracht GER 08:35:27 08:22:49 00:48:12 04:52:21 02:49:54 79% +10% -10% (25) 8
3 5 Ivan Rana ESP 08:39:56 08:24:55 00:47:12 04:59:39 02:48:05 83% +10% -6% (9) 11
4 6 Jesse Thomas USA 08:43:12 08:39:40 00:49:51 04:53:16 02:55:05 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (55)
5 7 David McNamee GBR 08:45:23 08:27:09 00:47:15 05:03:52 02:49:16 100% +0% -0% (3) 15
6 4 Miquel Blanchart Tinto ESP 08:50:32 08:37:51 00:48:02 05:08:23 02:49:07 90% +10% -0% (11) 46
7 2 Romain Guillaume FRA 08:50:43 08:49:17 00:47:28 04:54:34 03:03:41 54% +24% -22% (26) 82
8 22 Esben Hovgaard DEN 08:52:23 08:49:38 00:52:09 04:58:13 02:57:01 54% +39% -7% (8) 84
9 50 Marc Duelsen GER 08:54:23 08:46:17 00:51:37 04:58:12 02:59:35 60% +0% -40% (6) (75)
10 47 Johann Ackermann GER 08:55:25 08:53:25 00:48:13 04:57:14 03:04:58 36% +0% -64% (5) (98)
11 8 Stephen Bayliss GBR 09:00:56 08:51:07 00:46:58 05:05:00 03:03:58 40% +4% -56% (45) 88
12 35 Erik-Simon Strijk NED 09:01:58 08:53:11 00:51:48 05:02:42 03:02:28 89% +11% -0% (5) 96
13 9 Nicholas Ward Munoz GBR 09:05:47 08:54:53 00:53:13 05:10:15 02:57:19 45% +16% -39% (16) (102)
14 45 Harry Wiltshire GBR 09:07:50 08:53:24 00:47:08 05:08:47 03:06:56 26% +32% -42% (14) 97
15 24 Karl-Johan Danielsson SWE 09:08:15 09:03:40 00:50:14 04:55:07 03:17:55 16% +40% -44% (8) 133
16 44 Graeme Stewart GBR 09:11:38 09:01:49 00:54:18 05:05:37 03:06:43 56% +20% -25% (10) 124
17 34 Carlos Lopez Diaz ESP 09:11:47 09:00:05 00:46:48 05:09:23 03:10:37 38% +19% -44% (5) 119
18 39 Andrey Lyatskiy RUS 09:15:33 09:01:02 00:48:23 05:14:42 03:07:29 83% +5% -11% (25) 121
19 36 Mikita Hryhoryeu POL 09:16:41 09:12:56 00:50:11 05:18:33 03:02:58 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (177)
20 48 Marcel Bischof GER 09:21:51 09:17:21 00:55:51 05:13:16 03:07:44 77% +23% -0% (12) 190
21 43 Harry Springall GBR 09:22:34 09:18:46 00:53:33 05:02:53 03:21:09 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (194)
22 49 Roman Deisenhofer GER 09:24:53 09:15:28 00:52:25 05:09:18 03:18:11 59% +41% -0% (3) 186
23 30 Eneko Elosegui ESP 09:32:34 09:34:05 00:56:42 05:08:07 03:22:45 50% +48% -2% (13) (230)
24 21 Till Schramm GER 09:34:15 09:38:23 00:56:11 05:11:38 03:21:26 9% +14% -77% (5) 242
25 46 Craig Twigg GBR 09:40:05 09:53:38 00:51:57 05:05:19 03:37:49 3% +21% -76% (12) 263
26 23 Marcus Hultgren SWE 09:43:23 09:35:12 00:56:58 05:24:10 03:17:15 64% +36% -0% (3) 234
27 32 Enric Gussinyer ESP 09:46:21 09:31:00 00:50:55 05:17:01 03:33:24 86% +0% -14% (6) 223
28 26 Michael Louys BEL 09:46:54 09:42:38 01:00:58 05:20:22 03:20:34 42% +19% -39% (6) 247
29 29 John Manuel Galindo Rooney ESP 09:47:41 09:43:39 00:51:33 05:23:47 03:27:22 37% +63% -0% (2) (250)
30 41 Gilian Oriet SUI 10:02:59 10:05:22 00:56:53 05:29:07 03:31:59 12% +14% -74% (8) (275)
31 51 Armin Atzlinger AUT 10:08:16 10:04:10 00:53:53 05:38:17 03:31:06 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (275)
32 52 Christopher Baird USA 11:52:35 11:47:47 01:03:06 06:54:19 03:50:10 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (300)
33 38 Marek Nemcik SVK 12:04:20 12:16:25 01:11:17 06:12:24 04:35:39 32% +23% -45% (32) 301
25 Jim Thijs BEL n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
27 Diego Van Looy BEL n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
28 Rob Bobbaers BEL n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
31 Francisco Fernandez Cortes ESP n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
33 Rayco Marrero Avero ESP n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (1 IM Pro race) (n/a)
37 Alen Kralj SVN n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
40 Frederic Garcia FRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (1 IM Pro race) (n/a)
42 Dominic Rohan-Gates GBR n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated 0% +0% -100% (2) (n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Consistency Overall
1 10 Diana Riesler GER 09:39:22 09:26:27 00:56:36 05:20:49 03:16:57 55% +17% -28% (17) 22
2 17 Alexandra Tondeur BEL 10:03:56 09:59:52 00:56:57 05:45:30 03:16:29 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (90)
3 14 Jeanne Collonge FRA 10:04:03 10:08:28 00:56:59 05:35:55 03:26:09 21% +16% -63% (9) (105)
4 13 Saleta Castro Nogueira ESP 10:10:37 10:11:01 00:54:22 05:46:04 03:25:11 53% +47% -0% (8) 110
5 11 Caroline Livesey GBR 10:14:26 10:06:27 00:59:57 05:43:45 03:25:44 70% +0% -30% (4) 101
6 15 Tine Holst DEN 10:15:55 10:06:09 01:04:09 05:39:07 03:27:39 89% +11% -0% (10) 100
7 20 Jocelyn Mccauley USA 10:20:49 10:22:47 00:58:21 05:50:13 03:27:16 41% +0% -59% (4) (139)
8 18 Nicole Woysch GER 10:34:38 10:48:03 00:57:23 05:48:58 03:43:17 26% +4% -70% (20) (177)
9 19 Alyssa Godesky USA 10:35:03 10:29:50 01:00:55 05:56:47 03:32:21 54% +23% -23% (10) 160
10 12 Anne Jensen DEN 10:36:48 10:30:47 01:08:01 05:42:00 03:41:47 65% +0% -35% (3) 164
16 Lucy Charles GBR n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

Based on the raw numbers, current Kona champion Jan Frodeno is the clear favorite to win the race – he’s got the best swim, bike and run ratings of the whole field. But he’s had a calf injury that forced him to skip IM South Africa and his main focus for Lanzarote will be to validate his automatic qualifier Kona slot, so maybe there is a chance for the other athletes. Timo Bracht would be the favorite in almost any other field, he’s focused on getting the points he needs to qualify for Kona – for him that would mean a Top 3. (Timo currently has 2.320 points.) David McNamee (3.310), Ivan Rana (3.025) and Jesse Thomas (2.545) need to finish just outside the Top 3 to secure a July slot, while Romain Guillaume (1.470) would have to win to punch his Kona ticket.

  • Jan Frodeno: 43% (1-1)
  • Timo Bracht: 34% (2-1)
  • Ivan Rana: 11% (8-1)
  • Romain Guillaume: 3% (29-1)
  • Jesse Thomas: 3% (32-1)
  • David McNamee: 2% (39-1)

Female Race Participants

2015 Lanzarote champion Diana Riesler is the clear favorite to defend her title – and she will need the points to have a shot at July qualifying after her DNF in Kona. The athlete with the most KPR points is Tine Holst (3.185), she’ll need at least a Top3 for a July slot. The next best in the KPR are Alexandra Tondeur (2.630), Saleta Castro (1.375) and Caroline Livesay (1.150) who need a great performance in Lanzarote to keep their Kona chances alive.

  • Diana Riesler: 72% (1-1)
  • Jeanne Collonge: 8% (12-1)
  • Saleta Castro Nogueira: 7% (13-1)
  • Tine Holst: 5% (18-1)
  • Caroline Livesey: 4% (22-1)
  • Alexandra Tondeur: 2% (44-1)

With Lucy Charles there is an interesting new Pro female in the field. Lucy was the fastest female amateur in Kona 2015, and her swim time of 52:20 was a whopping 2:44 than Jodie Swallow’s best Pro swim time. While we can expect Lucy to lead after the swim, she’ll need to step up her bike and run (5:38 and 3:44 in Kona) to hold on to the lead. But she’ll be a factor in the Top 5 for sure, and maybe even for the podium.

Challenge Taiwan 2016 (May 7th) – Analyzing Results

Race Conditions

When Challenge Taiwan was raced in 2013 and 2014, it was a pretty quick course, especially on the bike. After taking a breather in 2015, the race was back this year and has been quite a bit slower than in the past. I’m not sure if there have been course changes or if the weather was exceptionally hot this year – in any case the bike was roughly four minutes slower and the run about 12 minutes.

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected Prize Money
1 Fredrik Croneborg SWE 00:51:56 04:33:57 02:59:10 08:30:28 -15:18 EUR 8000
2 Dylan McNeice NZL 00:45:35 04:35:19 03:21:31 08:48:37 -05:06 EUR 5000
3 Patrick Evoe USA 00:54:22 04:28:55 03:26:35 08:55:56 -05:25 EUR 3500
4 Till Schramm GER 00:58:38 04:55:01 03:46:23 09:46:59 25:22 EUR 2500
5 Petr Vabrousek CZE 00:58:44 05:02:44 03:51:14 10:02:39 57:48 EUR 2000
6 Tomas Racek CZE 01:06:07 06:16:09 06:35:34 14:20:04 n/a  

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected Prize Money
1 Shiao-yu Li TWN 01:01:07 05:00:43 03:31:31 09:40:05 -25:24 EUR 8000
2 Jessica Fleming AUS 01:00:50 05:03:33 03:38:22 09:48:48 -03:56 EUR 5000
3 Kathryn Haesner NZL 00:57:07 05:14:49 03:31:04 09:49:33 xx:-21:08 EUR 3500
4 Vanessa Murray NZL 00:55:38 05:18:09 03:33:39 09:54:56 02:08 EUR 2500
5 Marina Jurjevic AUS 01:11:04 05:25:03 04:08:15 10:51:38 34:48 EUR 2000
6 Kathrin Walther GER 01:00:44 05:26:41 04:52:20 11:28:31 1:20:20  

Germans at IM Texas – Julia Gajer and Nils Frommhold

ErdingerEven though I don’t drink any beer myself, I know that beer is taken very seriously in Texas. In addition to “Shiner Bock” there are a lot of micro-breweries putting out their product, and while the alcohol content of around 8% makes the calorie count pretty high, a lot of triathletes enjoy a nice beer after a hard training session .. or just to relax.

Of course Germans take pride in their beer as well, and breweries sponsor a lot of big sporting events and teams. In the last few years, the German brewery “Erdinger” has supported an Endurance Team consisting mainly of German athletes such as the Raelert Brothers and a few internationals like Eva Wutti or Lucy Gossage. The name of the team – “Erdinger Alkoholfrei Endurance Team” – indicates that the main product they are highlighting is an alcohol-free version of their “Weizen” or wheat beer. Most who have tried it like it as a refreshing, mineral-rich hydration after a long, hard session (or race).

With Julia Gajer and Nils Frommhold two Erdinger athletes will be racing at Texas on May 14th. There are a lot of similarities between these athletes: Both have won IM Arizona (Nils in 2012, Julia in 2013), were 6th in Kona 2014, are coached by Wolfram Bott, had great results in the 2015 summer – but had disappointing races in Kona. Both are looking to score the points needed for a Kona slot but are also serious contenders for the win.

Nils Frommhold

After finishing 6th in Kona 2014, Nils validated his 2015 Kona slot in the Regional Championship in Melbourne in March. With Luke Bell he built an 11-minute lead into to T2 and was in the lead until about 30k into the run when he started to struggle. He still managed to finish in fifth place. While not satisfied with the result and the frustrating end to his race day, it allowed him to focus on doing well at Challenge Roth in the summer.

For German athletes winning in Roth is the next best thing to winning in Kona. There is a fierce competition between Ironman Germany in Frankfurt and Challenge Roth for the “most important” German race – usually Frankfurt draws a deeper field as a Regional Championship, but Roth consistently has the faster times and always has at least a handful of “big names”. Nils had raced Roth in 2014, finishing second only to Timo Bracht and barely missing the 8-hour mark. Winning Roth has always been one of his goals, and he delivered a fantastic race: While Andy Starykowicz tried to race away from the rest of the field, Nils matched his pace and when Andy started to struggle towards the end of the bike, Nils was able to build a 2-minute lead into T2. Similar to 2014 Timo Bracht had the best marathon, but even his 2:45 was only good enough for second place: Nils had a very solid 2:51 marathon and won Challenge Roth 2015 with a time of 7:51, the third fastest time of all IM-distance races in the whole year.

NilsBikeAfter that career highlight Nils was very motivated for the rest of the season, but he wasn’t able to have a good race after Roth. He raced the 70.3 Championships in Zell am See and was in the second group on the bike. But when he tried to split the group on a climb, he ran out of steam, wasn’t able to put together a decent run and dropped back to 22nd place. To prepare for Kona he went to the heat of The Woodlands, Texas, with his coach Wolfram Bott and a number of other athletes. He felt the training went well and was looking forward to race well in Kona. He was in a good position after the swim but had a flat early in the bike. After a quick fix he tried to race back to the main group but just wasted a lot of energy without making up much ground. He fell back even further on the climb to Hawi, but still went on to finish the race in 29th place.

His 2016 first race also didn’t go according to plan. Nils took the long trip from Europe to race the South American 70.3 Championships in Palmas. He thought a Top 3 was a possible result for him, and was part of a three-men bike lead group, but coming from a long European winter he was not ready for the humidity and heat. Once again he struggled in the latter part of the bike, couldn’t run well off the bike and dropped back to 8th place.

Photo: Nils training on the bike in The Woodlands, Credit: Sarah Fladung

Julia Gajer

While Nils has been coached by Wolfram Bott for a long time, Julia only started to work with Wolfram after her sixth place in Kona 2014. Both Julia and Wolfram were cautious with their expectations for the 2015 season and were mainly focused on 2016. But things went really well from the start: Two second places in 70.3s (behind Daniela Ryf in Mallorca and Camilla Pedersen in Kraichgau) lead to a win at 70.3 Luxemburg. She went on to race well in the Frankfurt heat at IM Germany, finishing second behind a dominating Daniela Ryf but in front of Caroline Steffen. When she finished 6th in the 70.3 Champs without a dedicated preparation, things seemed to be clicking much faster than planned and she had high expectations for Kona.

For Kona 2014 Julia prepared at home in Germany and was a solo traveller to Kona until her parents and husband joined her just for the race. Things were much different for 2015: She prepared in the Texas heat with the Wolfram Bott training group and had a number of obligations after arriving in Kona. She was hoping for a similar result as in 2014, but she knew there were a lot of Top 10 contenders in the race. However, she was not able to fight for a good finish – with bike shoe issues she was never able to put out decent power on the bike and was dropping further and further behind. Shortly after T2 she retired from the race. She was pretty frustrated and after a few days of sightseeing in San Francisco she decided not to end her season quite yet but to race another IM in November.

JuliaBike

Julia prepared in chilly Germany for Arizona which is usually a pretty warm race. The weather in Tempe turned out to be cold and rainy. Julia never really got going, but still managed to place herself in second place on the bike and into T2, but never started to close the gap to Meredith Kessler who was on fire and ended up posting the fastest 2015 Ironman. On the run Julia lost one spot to Amanda Stevens who ran well while Julia slogged through the marathon. When she heard towards the end of the race that her gap to fourth place Darbi Roberts was shrinking she rallied a bit to hold on to the last podium spot. She was relieved that the race and her season was over.

In the off-season Julia moved to Austria (her husband took a new job there) and continued to work on her equipment. With Cervelo as a new bike sponsor she had some more options to further tweak her bike position and is very happy with the new setup. She started her 2016 racing with another cold race: 70.3 Pays d’Aix. Cold winds on race morning lead to a cancelled swim and a time trial start with 20-second gaps. Even with arm and leg warmers it took her 20k on the bike to properly warm up. By then she was more than five minutes behind eventual winner Tine Deckers who had a very strong bike. The rest of the bike went much better and she didn’t have too many problems in the strong cross winds. She was in fourth position in T2, and the fastest run allowed her to claim second place. As it was her first race of the season, she was quite happy with her performance.

Photo: Julia on her new bike while training in Mallorca. Credit: Wolfram Bott

Expectations for Texas

Nils and Julia have almost the same goal for IM Texas: They “just” want to have a solid Ironman race. For both of them that includes a decent swim (i.e. starting the bike in the front group), a steady bike and a solid marathon that puts them in a position to fight for a podium spot in the last 10k of the race. If they manage that, they should also be able to secure their Kona slots.

Nils now sits at 865 KPR points, so if he wants to defend his Roth title in the summer (he is on the start list), he has to get the majority of his qualifying points from a good race in Texas. With the cutoff expected to be at 3.500 points for the men, Nils needs a third place (2.890 points leading to a total of 3.755 points) to be reasonably safe for a July slot. There are also eight to ten athletes that can beat Nils when they have a great day so it is hard to predict where Nils will end up, but with a solid race a podium finish is a reasonable goal for him. If he manages to have a great day, he could even be in a position to win the race, but Nils is a bit anxious to race in the heat. He hopes that with some adjustments he can break his string of sub-standard races in warmer temperatures.

With regards to Kona qualifying, Julia is in a better position than Nils. She already has 3.450 KPR points, so with the cutoff around 4.500 points she’ll be safe for a Kona slot with at least a seventh place (1.335 points) in Texas. Unless she runs into problems in Texas, that’s the base goal for her – if things go well, she’ll be racing for her second Ironman win. After racing twice in cold conditions, Julia looks forward to the Texas heat – with the exception of Kona she has always been racing well in the heat. Her second place at the start of the season was encouraging to her and she very much looks forward to have a good race in Texas.

As for the beer company that sponsors Julia and Nils, it’ll be quite some time before “Erdinger Alkoholfrei” will be a legitimate challenger for the top beer in Texas. Even if they face strong competition at the North American Championships, both Nils and Julia clearly have a much better shot at taking the honors at Ironman Texas.

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