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Ironman Cairns 2016 (June 12th) – Predictions

IMCairnsLogo Update June 3rd: Liz Blatchford is disappointed to have withdrawn due to injury.

Update June 10th: There are rumors of other athletes not starting, so far I have only been able to verify Fredrik Croneborg, Will Clarke and Kirsty Jahn as DNS.

Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2011 Chris McCormack (AUS) 08:15:56 Rebekah Keat (AUS) 09:26:31
2012 David Dellow (AUS) 08:15:04 Carrie Lester (AUS) 09:21:00
2013 Luke McKenzie (AUS) 08:17:43 Liz Blatchford (AUS) 09:19:51
2014 Cameron Brown (NZL) 08:20:15 Liz Blatchford (AUS) 09:16:58
2015 Luke McKenzie (AUS) 08:18:01 Liz Blatchford (AUS) 09:11:49

In 2011 the race was run as “Challenge Cairns”.

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Luke McKenzie AUS 00:47:18 04:30:19 02:57:37 08:18:01
2 Cameron Brown NZL 00:49:44 04:40:42 02:52:54 08:26:22
3 Dylan McNeice NZL 00:44:54 04:49:41 02:58:40 08:36:55

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Liz Blatchford AUS 00:49:54 05:07:37 03:10:30 09:11:49
2 Gina Crawford NZL 00:53:37 05:10:34 03:12:58 09:20:56
3 Michelle Bremer NZL 00:56:34 05:13:02 03:22:31 09:35:32

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:15:04 David Dellow 2012-06-02
Swim overall 00:43:48 Clayton Fettell 2011-06-05
Bike overall 04:21:52 Luke McKenzie 2013-06-01
Run overall 02:44:24 Tim Van Berkel 2013-06-01
Total female 09:11:49 Liz Blatchford 2015-06-14
Swim female 00:49:54 Liz Blatchford 2015-06-14
Bike female 05:00:37 Melanie Burke 2014-06-08
Bike female 05:00:37 Belinda Harper 2012-06-02
Run female 03:06:57 Liz Blatchford 2014-06-08

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Cairns is 03:50.

Race Adjustments for IM Cairns

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Finishers Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2011 01:35 01:11 04:26 01:36 16 01:35 01:11 04:26 01:36
2012 09:38 -01:14 07:05 -00:14 22 05:36 -00:02 05:45 00:41
2013 00:01 -02:07 07:46 -04:36 16 03:44 -00:43 06:26 -01:05
2014 02:14 -02:46 04:05 04:00 16 of 21 03:22 -01:14 05:51 00:11
2015 05:42 01:09 03:16 -00:42 16 of 19 03:50 -00:45 05:20 00:01

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Cairns is a P-4000 race. It has a total prize purse of 150.000 US$.

It replaces IM Melbourne as the Asia-Pacific Regional Championship.

Male Race Participants

All four male course record holders (Clayton Fettel for the swim, Luke McKenzie for the bike, Tim Berkel for the run and David Dellow for the overall time) are part of the strong field. Add in Cam Brown, 2012 Kona champion Pete Jacobs and Kona hopefuls Brad Kahlefeldt (coming off an injury), Jordan Rapp and Matt Hanson (backing up after Texas) – just to mention a few – you have a field that’s worthy of the race’s Regional Championship status.

Tim Don has just raced IM Brasil, he is unlikely to start in Cairns.

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Consistency Overall
1 1 Luke McKenzie AUS 08:18:13 08:34:04 00:48:59 04:24:35 02:59:39 51% +30% -19% (26) 26
2 3 Tim Van Berkel AUS 08:20:57 08:31:48 00:49:09 04:35:44 02:51:04 72% +6% -22% (19) 21
3 4 David Dellow AUS 08:21:03 08:26:05 00:47:54 04:33:10 02:54:59 66% +2% -32% (13) 11
4 2 Cameron Brown NZL 08:22:34 08:28:48 00:51:30 04:35:13 02:50:51 64% +2% -34% (29) 16
5 23 Brad Kahlefeldt AUS 08:23:31 08:42:29 00:46:47 04:41:00 02:50:44 43% +0% -57% (2) (53)
6 7 Jordan Rapp USA 08:27:20 08:28:09 00:53:00 04:29:35 02:59:44 72% +10% -18% (18) 15
7 6 Matt Hanson USA 08:30:17 08:39:22 00:54:38 04:42:01 02:48:38 29% +39% -31% (9) 45
8 8 Clayton Fettell AUS 08:31:48 08:39:27 00:46:24 04:30:30 03:09:55 13% +32% -54% (7) 46
9 19 Tim Don GBR 08:32:32 08:37:18 00:48:49 04:41:26 02:57:18 100% +0% -0% (2) (37)
10 9 Pete Jacobs AUS 08:35:34 08:53:54 00:48:18 04:38:08 03:04:08 5% +16% -79% (26) (77)
11 17 Fredrik Croneborg SWE 08:37:50 08:40:23 00:52:16 04:44:10 02:56:25 81% +4% -15% (10) 47
12 5 Romain Guillaume FRA 08:38:03 08:49:17 00:49:16 04:34:54 03:08:53 54% +24% -22% (26) 67
13 30 Jens Petersen-Bach DEN 08:39:15 08:42:59 00:51:45 04:45:25 02:57:05 62% +0% -38% (14) 53
14 10 Luke Bell AUS 08:39:56 09:04:39 00:48:05 04:38:39 03:08:12 20% +4% -76% (27) (114)
15 13 Matt Burton AUS 08:40:35 09:07:24 00:53:34 04:34:56 03:07:04 31% +0% -69% (5) (125)
16 32 Michael Ruenz GER 08:45:07 08:52:33 00:55:20 04:45:47 02:59:00 54% +0% -46% (7) 75
17 26 Casey Munro AUS 08:45:34 09:07:53 00:47:33 04:36:26 03:16:35 31% +0% -69% (5) (127)
18 15 Simon Cochrane NZL 08:47:38 09:03:11 00:51:03 04:45:55 03:05:40 67% +29% -5% (16) 105
19 22 Jarmo Hast FIN 08:49:07 08:55:35 00:51:04 04:48:41 03:04:23 58% +4% -37% (14) 83
20 11 Simon Billeau FRA 08:50:36 08:55:59 00:55:00 04:37:30 03:13:06 52% +0% -48% (16) 85
21 20 Adam Gordon AUS 08:50:55 09:03:50 00:55:45 04:46:33 03:03:38 8% +78% -15% (4) 109
22 33 Todd Skipworth AUS 08:53:28 09:15:39 00:45:50 04:44:50 03:17:48 24% +0% -76% (6) (155)
23 14 Will Clarke GBR 09:00:15 09:15:03 00:50:58 04:43:58 03:20:19 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (154)
24 16 Guy Crawford NZL 09:01:43 09:13:32 00:49:42 04:39:35 03:27:26 27% +37% -36% (12) 147
25 18 Michael Davidson ZAF 09:06:51 09:13:33 00:57:31 04:54:43 03:09:38 54% +0% -46% (4) 148
26 12 Johan Borg AUS 09:10:16 09:29:12 00:56:35 04:52:11 03:16:30 43% +6% -51% (8) (181)
27 27 Samuel Murphy AUS 09:14:15 09:29:26 00:56:58 05:06:33 03:05:44 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (183)
28 24 Felipe De Oliveira Manente BRA 09:20:09 09:31:50 00:54:18 04:59:43 03:21:08 23% +9% -68% (7) 192
29 25 Dan McGuigan AUS 09:38:29 10:00:38 01:04:05 04:55:36 03:33:48 43% +18% -39% (5) 240
30 31 Matt Randall NZL 09:52:19 10:00:14 01:01:13 04:57:47 03:48:20 55% +0% -45% (5) 239
21 Tim Green AUS n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
28 Ryan Palazzi AUS n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
29 Matthew Pellow AUS n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
34 Leigh Stabryla AUS n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (1 IM Pro race) (n/a)
35 Cameron Wurf AUS n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)

Here’s a look at the athletes that are in the running for a July Kona slot:

  • Tim Berkel is already safe, Pete Jacobs just needs to validate his Automatic Qualifier slot with a “competitive finish”.
  • Luke McKenzie has 3.005 points, he’ll be fine with a 9th place finish.
  • With Cameron Brown (2.240 points – unclear if he wants to race in Kona again), David Dellow (2.575) and Fredrik Croneborg (2.795 points) have a similar number of points and should be fine with 8th (1.070 points) or 7th place (1.335).
  • Romain Guillaume (1.470 points), Matt Hanson (1.700 points), Jordan Rapp (1.215), Clayton Fettell (1.570) and Adam Gordon (1.570) will need a Top 5 (2.090) or better to have a chance to qualify.

Female Race Participants

As usual the women’s field is a bit smaller than the men’s field, but it has a number of strong racers as is typical for a Regional Championship. Jodie Swallow is hopefully recovered from a broken elbow suffered during IM South Africa – as the strongest summer and biker in the field she should lead the race well into the run. But three-time champion Liz Blatchford will try to limit the distance and then take the lead on the run. Linsey Corbin has shown she has left her injury-plagued 2015 behind, nominally she is the strongest runner in the field and should end up close to Liz and Jodie. After her DNF in Texas Rebekah Keat is just looking forward to a good race, she will need a solid run to fight for a podium spot. Michelle Bremer and Sarah Crowley are looking to add some KPR points to get a July Kona slot.

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Consistency Overall
1 41 Liz Blatchford AUS 09:11:02 09:15:12 00:51:48 05:06:16 03:07:59 100% +0% -0% (9) 5
2 42 Jodie Swallow GBR 09:14:21 09:25:28 00:49:48 05:01:52 03:17:41 55% +0% -45% (10) (20)
3 43 Linsey Corbin USA 09:16:42 09:20:34 00:58:23 05:05:22 03:07:57 79% +21% -0% (18) (15)
4 45 Rebekah Keat AUS 09:23:08 09:25:16 00:54:03 05:08:19 03:15:46 85% +1% -14% (22) (20)
5 44 Michelle Bremer NZL 09:29:22 09:40:52 00:58:08 05:06:34 03:19:40 73% +20% -7% (11) 45
6 46 Sarah Crowley AUS 09:41:26 09:53:11 00:58:27 05:12:34 03:25:25 100% +0% -0% (2) (68)
7 50 Kirsty Jahn CAN 09:41:48 09:57:44 01:00:35 05:22:54 03:13:19 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (79)
8 48 Melanie Burke NZL 09:42:16 09:52:40 01:05:15 05:09:39 03:22:21 78% +12% -9% (11) 66
9 51 Kym Coogan AUS 09:51:43 09:59:03 00:57:18 05:16:15 03:33:10 100% +0% -0% (3) 81
10 47 Kate Bevilaqua AUS 09:53:35 10:04:49 00:56:50 05:19:45 03:32:00 26% +7% -67% (26) 91
11 53 Tamsyn Hayes NZL 10:06:58 10:17:39 01:01:22 05:18:18 03:42:18 52% +11% -37% (10) 113
12 52 Kristy Hallett AUS 10:22:25 10:34:19 01:03:53 05:28:50 03:44:43 43% +21% -36% (7) 155
13 54 Tracy Morrison AUS 10:28:47 10:46:01 01:02:29 05:47:08 03:34:10 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (162)
14 49 Alison Fitch AUS 10:31:17 10:11:09 00:57:17 05:40:05 03:48:56 10% +0% -90% (8) 101

Here’s a look at the athletes that are in the running for a July Kona slot:

  • Liz Blatchford is already safe but requires a validation race.
  • Jodie Swallow (2.420 points), Linsey Corbin (2.190). Michelle Bremer (2.830) and Sarah Crowley (2.645) should be okay with a 5th place (2.090) or 4th place (2.455) in order to get to the projected cutoff of 4.500 points.
  • Kate Bevilaqua (1.695) and Melanie Burke (1.545) could qualify with at least a second place (3.400 points), the rest has to look for the Automatic Qualifier you get for winning the race.

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

  • Luke McKenzie: 33% (2-1)
  • Tim Van Berkel: 21% (4-1)
  • Cameron Brown: 19% (4-1)
  • David Dellow: 10% (9-1)
  • Matt Hanson: 7% (14-1)
  • Pete Jacobs: 5% (21-1)
  • Jordan Rapp: 3% (30-1)

Female Race Participants

  • Liz Blatchford: 35% (2-1)
  • Jodie Swallow: 33% (2-1)
  • Linsey Corbin: 20% (4-1)
  • Rebekah Keat: 7% (13-1)
  • Michelle Bremer: 5% (20-1)

Ironman Brasil 2016 – Analyzing Results

Race Conditions

Brasil is a very fast course, and this year wasn’t different. Even though the conditions were wet and rainy the adjustments were very comparable to the Brasil averages (18:49, new course rating of 18:16). Even so we’ve seen some very fast times: Both winners set new course records, and Brent also set a new run course record.

Male Race Results

Brent’s winning time is a new course record and also the second fastest finish in an Ironman-branded race. The fastest is still 7:45:58 by Marino Vanhoenacker at Austria 2011, the fastest Ironman-distance time is 7:41:33 by Andreas Raelert at Roth 2011.

In addition to Brent who receives an Automatic Qualifier slot, Tim Don and Kevin Collington are safe for a July slot, Paul Matthews is close.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected Prize Money
1 Brent McMahon CAN 00:47:47 04:11:54 02:42:52 07:46:10 -14:07 US$ 30000
2 Tim Don GBR 00:47:49 04:22:01 02:50:27 08:04:15 -11:04 US$ 15000
3 Kevin Collington USA 00:47:58 04:23:48 02:48:48 08:04:58 -15:35 US$ 8000
4 Paul Matthews AUS 00:47:46 04:24:46 02:52:01 08:08:57 -07:24 US$ 6500
5 Pedro Gomes POR 00:54:38 04:29:30 02:47:50 08:16:42 -07:40 US$ 5000
6 Fabio Carvalho BRA 00:47:58 04:35:20 02:50:55 08:19:07 xx:-22:21 US$ 3500
7 Ronnie Schildknecht SUI 00:55:14 04:28:44 02:51:07 08:19:59 10:13 US$ 2500
8 Frank Silvestrin BRA 00:51:10 04:33:30 02:51:14 08:20:31 -20:11 US$ 2000
9 Mario De Elias ARG 00:51:15 04:33:22 02:52:43 08:21:37 -20:18 US$ 1500
10 Luis Henrique Ohde BRA 00:48:21 04:35:50 02:58:36 08:27:32 n/a US$ 1000
11 Thiago Vinhal BRA 00:47:55 04:36:36 03:01:29 08:31:20 -10:43
12 Nick Baldwin SEY 00:54:37 04:29:37 03:09:06 08:38:31 -00:47
13 Fellipe Santos BRA 00:48:47 04:44:56 03:06:32 08:47:59 n/a
14 Brent Mcburney USA 01:00:05 04:48:01 03:16:16 09:09:53 -23:52
15 Diego Serda ARG 00:54:42 05:08:12 03:06:09 09:14:00 n/a
16 Christian Carletto ARG 00:59:47 04:56:26 03:19:25 09:23:26 -02:11
Will Clarke GBR 00:47:57 04:32:50 DNF
Anton Blokhin UKR 00:51:11 04:33:07 DNF
Marcus Vinicius Fernandes BRA 00:47:19 04:37:07 DQ
Daniel Fontana ITA 00:48:26 04:36:08 DQ
Danilo Melo BRA 01:11:09 04:53:29 DQ
Igor Amorelli BRA 00:47:52 DNF
Mike Aigroz SUI 00:48:17 DQ
Guilherme Manocchio BRA 00:50:44 DNF
Felipe De Oliveira Manente BRA 00:54:38 DNF
Stefan Schmid GER 00:54:46 DNF

Female Race Results

As the winner of the South American Championship Liz Lyles receives an Automatic Qualifier slot. Mareen Hufe and Gurutze Frades are safe for a July slot, while Ariane Monticelli is close to the projected cutoff and will need only a few more points.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected Prize Money
1 Elizabeth Lyles USA 00:56:52 04:48:37 03:03:48 08:54:10 -14:44 US$ 30000
2 Mareen Hufe GER 01:01:22 04:51:32 03:11:02 09:09:36 -06:49 US$ 15000
3 Gurutze Frades Larralde ESP 01:01:26 05:00:36 03:08:54 09:15:52 -14:55 US$ 8000
4 Ariane Monticeli BRA 01:01:25 05:09:24 03:03:55 09:21:18 -04:11 US$ 6500
5 Kristin Moeller GER 01:01:22 05:18:13 03:04:41 09:29:36 15:39 US$ 5000
6 Mariana Andrade BRA 00:59:39 05:05:54 03:23:20 09:34:01 -22:58 US$ 3500
7 Caitlin Snow USA 00:56:47 05:19:58 03:12:27 09:35:13 20:19 US$ 2500
8 Laurel Wassner USA 00:56:42 05:20:14 03:14:10 09:38:45 08:13 US$ 2000
9 Karina Ottosen DEN 01:01:19 05:17:08 03:20:29 09:44:17 06:40 US$ 1500
10 Lucie Reed CZE 00:54:10 05:19:45 03:34:14 09:54:05 26:52 US$ 1000
11 Bruna Mahn BRA 00:56:49 05:36:05 03:26:47 10:05:33 n/a
Brooke Brown CAN 01:01:26 05:20:25 DNF
Helena Herrero Gomez ESP 01:01:28 DNF

What Happened to GPS Coverage of the Pro Races?

In January 2015 Ironman announced enhanced race coverage of major races, including GPS tracking devices feeding into a new athlete tracking platform (see my post looking at the details). This post looks at the progress Ironman has made during last year and where things are for this season.

2015 Season

GPS tracking was off to a slow start. At the Regional Championships Pros were given a tracker that they had to carry on the bike and run. The following photo shows the tracker on the left compared to an iPhone 5 (the photo doesn’t show that the tracker is about three times as thick as an iPhone):

OldTracker

The Pros had to carry the devices, but for the first Regionals the information was not made publicly available. If you knew where to look, you could see “dots on a map” on a “semi-secret” site by Quarq, the manufacturer of the devices.

Towards the second half of the season (as far as I know starting with IM Frankfurt but also for 70.3 Championships and Kona) the information was integrated into the Ironman website and there was a GPS Leaderboard with constantly updating information showing the time differences between athletes. The old “Athlete Tracker” was replaced by a modernized version with a slicker look and predictions that often were comically wrong. For agegroup athletes the information was still based on the splits from the timing mats.

2016 Season

I was expecting to a see an updated version of the GPS tracking for this season, both in terms of the tracking device (smaller, lighter) and also in the functionality offered to the public. But the first Regional Championships at IM South Africa did not include any GPS information at all, neither publicly not privately.

I reached out to Ironman with some detailed questions but only received a short answer that “there was an issue for the IRONMAN African Championships” and that they are “working to have GPS tracking at the remaining Championship races”.

The North American Championships at IM Texas did in fact provide GPS tracking. A new, smaller device was used:

NewTracker

Apparently these are provided not by Quarq (who continue to offer their race tracking services, for example at Rev3 races as announced in this press release) but by Beacon Athlete Tracking. (I have contacted Beacon Athlete Tracking and they confirmed to be working with Ironman this season to provide GPS tracking but haven’t provided additional information.) Similar to the start of last season, there was a “semi-secret” website for IM Texas with dots on a map but no GPS leaderboard, and no information was available on the Ironman website. Also, the old and much-ridiculed Athlete Tracker was used to show leaderboards and splits for all racers. As has often happened in the past, the tracker had issues and the first two hours of the race no information or splits were available.

My Assessment

One can only assume that Ironman and Quarq had reasons not to continue their relationship, however it is extremely unfortunate that the biggest fans of Ironman racing – those watching the race on site and those trying to follow online –  have to suffer the consequences. So far triathletes following the Regional Championships had to rely on spotter updates from the course and the spotty tracker – very infrequent split information that is not easily available. I can only assume that this also makes the job of the two commenters of the live show, Greg Welch and Michael Lovato, that much harder. Basically things are back to were they were at the start of 2015 and all the progress made during last year has been lost.

While Ironman has stated that they remain committed to providing GPS Tracking for the Pros and their intention to extend that to agegroupers as well, it is hard to discern that from their actions. I hope that they can make quick progress in the next few weeks and at least get us back to the status we had last summer with a working GPS leaderboard and an updated Athlete Tracker for Ironman Frankfurt.

In last year’s post I wrote:

Too often, Ironman efforts have been half-hearted and ultimately disappointing.

Concerning GPS tracking, I sincerely hope that Ironman’s actions will prove me wrong.

Ironman France 2016 (June 5th) – Predictions

IMFranceLogo Update May 27th: Michael Raelert announced on his Facebook page that he suffers from an infection with the Epstein-Barr virus and won’t be able to race in France.

Update May 31st: Kristin Möller has said that France was just a backup for Brasil where she finished fifth and won’t be racing in Nice.

Update June 4th: After Pros signing in, a few expected DNSs have been confirmed.

Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2005 Herve Faure (FRA) 08:49:06 Mariska Kramer-Postma (NED) 10:12:29
2006 Marcel Zamora (ESP) 08:33:56 Edith Niederfriniger (ITA) 09:56:32
2007 Marcel Zamora (ESP) 08:38:45 Alexandra Louison (FRA) 09:49:11
2008 Marcel Zamora (ESP) 08:34:03 Martina Dogana (ITA) 09:35:29
2009 Marcel Zamora (ESP) 08:30:06 Tine Deckers (BEL) 09:30:29
2010 Marcel Zamora (ESP) 08:25:28 Tine Deckers (BEL) 09:21:29
2011 Frederik Van Lierde (BEL) 08:28:30 Silvia Felt (GER) 09:34:31
2012 Frederik Van Lierde (BEL) 08:21:51 Tine Deckers (BEL) 09:16:05
2013 Frederik Van Lierde (BEL) 08:08:59 Mary Beth Ellis (USA) 09:12:54
2014 Bart Aernouts (BEL) 08:33:22 Tine Deckers (BEL) 09:12:21
2015 Boris Stein (GER) 08:27:32 Caitlin Snow (USA) 09:24:50

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Boris Stein GER 00:56:58 04:41:18 02:44:20 08:27:32
2 Victor Del Corral ESP 00:58:11 04:44:40 02:42:04 08:30:00
3 Romain Guillaume FRA 00:50:46 04:39:01 03:00:01 08:34:44

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Caitlin Snow USA 00:57:43 05:21:59 02:58:26 09:24:50
2 Lisa Roberts USA 01:03:40 05:21:07 02:54:45 09:26:00
3 Emma Pooley GBR 01:06:40 05:16:34 03:12:35 09:43:48

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:08:59 Frederik Van Lierde 2013-06-23
Swim overall 00:44:18 Gilles Reboul 2006-06-24
Bike overall 04:33:29 Frederik Van Lierde 2013-06-23
Run overall 02:37:01 Bart Aernouts 2013-06-23
Total female 09:12:21 Tine Deckers 2014-06-29
Swim female 00:48:59 Edith Niederfriniger 2006-06-24
Bike female 05:05:22 Christel Robin 2009-06-28
Run female 02:52:26 Caitlin Snow 2014-06-29

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM France is 03:58.

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Finishers Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2006 08:54 06:08 -01:00 03:29 34 08:54 06:08 -01:00 03:29
2007 07:24 00:21 00:29 07:03 39 08:09 03:14 -00:15 05:16
2008 01:09 -00:39 -01:39 00:38 41 05:49 01:56 -00:43 03:43
2009 03:17 -01:44 00:41 05:34 36 05:11 01:01 -00:22 04:11
2010 10:00 -01:59 -01:27 05:38 32 06:09 00:25 -00:35 04:29
2011 03:18 -00:12 -02:38 02:47 29 05:40 00:19 -00:56 04:12
2012 00:46 00:10 -03:49 04:07 23 04:58 00:18 -01:20 04:11
2013 06:17 00:07 -02:08 09:47 20 05:08 00:16 -01:26 04:53
2014 -02:55 -01:50 -04:52 04:08 26 of 34 04:14 00:02 -01:49 04:48
2015 01:27 -01:36 -05:47 05:00 25 of 34 03:58 -00:08 -02:13 04:49

KPR points and Prize Money

IM France is a P-2000 race. It has a total prize purse of 75.000 US$.

Male Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Consistency Overall
1 1 Frederik Van Lierde BEL 08:11:44 08:20:27 00:47:33 04:29:40 02:49:32 60% +21% -19% (17) 5
2 4 James Cunnama ZAF 08:28:52 08:39:20 00:49:26 04:42:11 02:52:15 40% +14% -46% (21) 44
3 38 Stefan Schmid GER 08:28:55 08:37:19 00:52:29 04:38:48 02:52:39 44% +56% -0% (11) 37
4 2 Victor Del Corral ESP 08:29:12 08:35:18 00:55:36 04:43:45 02:44:51 63% +0% -37% (12) 30
5 3 Michael Raelert GER 08:34:57 08:47:45 00:47:47 04:46:16 02:55:55 11% +20% -69% (4) (63)
6 10 Miquel Blanchart Tinto ESP 08:37:10 08:37:29 00:49:20 04:54:25 02:48:25 92% +8% -0% (12) 39
7 6 Andrej Vistica CRO 08:38:55 08:51:13 00:53:05 04:43:44 02:57:06 69% +0% -31% (9) 69
8 12 Herve Faure FRA 08:40:43 08:45:36 00:50:55 04:47:37 02:57:10 45% +0% -55% (8) (58)
9 11 Gwenael Ouilleres FRA 08:46:46 08:56:00 00:51:21 04:57:14 02:53:11 38% +62% -0% (2) 86
10 8 Bertrand Billard FRA 08:47:18 09:03:13 00:48:38 04:42:54 03:10:46 13% +23% -64% (6) 106
11 17 Christian Brader GER 08:48:23 08:54:06 00:56:50 04:53:11 02:53:22 82% +7% -12% (31) 77
12 14 Simon Billeau FRA 08:52:56 08:55:59 00:54:15 04:44:59 03:08:42 52% +0% -48% (16) 85
13 29 Carlos Lopez Diaz ESP 08:53:19 09:05:29 00:47:36 04:53:36 03:07:08 26% +13% -61% (6) 121
14 50 Antony Costes FRA 08:54:54 09:09:41 00:48:21 04:44:02 03:17:30 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (134)
15 16 Olivier Marceau SUI 08:58:22 09:08:47 00:51:21 04:56:02 03:05:59 91% +9% -0% (4) (130)
16 26 Cedric Lassonde FRA 09:03:31 09:11:20 00:55:31 04:54:15 03:08:45 74% +0% -26% (6) 140
17 13 Herve Banti MCO 09:05:51 09:22:19 00:51:37 04:51:35 03:17:38 34% +0% -66% (5) (165)
18 44 Rafael Wyss SUI 09:07:53 09:15:08 00:59:34 04:56:10 03:07:09 87% +13% -0% (16) 154
19 32 Wouter Monchy BEL 09:16:58 09:38:32 00:51:06 05:00:54 03:19:58 48% +52% -0% (2) (210)
20 47 Felipe De Oliveira Manente BRA 09:20:01 09:31:50 00:53:28 05:06:17 03:15:15 23% +9% -68% (7) 192
21 40 Yu Shinozaki JPN 09:24:30 10:05:44 00:56:20 04:54:58 03:28:12 17% +28% -55% (9) 244
22 46 Frederic Garcia FRA 09:25:22 09:40:59 00:56:50 05:12:45 03:10:47 51% +0% -49% (2) (214)
23 15 Guillaume Jeannin FRA 09:28:56 09:44:40 00:51:05 05:01:49 03:31:03 36% +0% -64% (3) (217)
24 24 Ivan Jezko SVK 09:33:05 09:53:53 00:59:07 05:03:58 03:25:01 49% +16% -35% (8) 229
25 39 Matt Shanks USA 09:36:10 09:52:06 01:00:43 05:17:27 03:13:00 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (226)
26 19 Pierre-Yves Facomprez FRA 09:46:18 10:02:30 01:02:55 05:13:25 03:24:57 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (241)
27 28 Ludovic Le Guellec FRA 09:51:56 10:13:02 01:01:05 05:24:43 03:21:09 49% +6% -45% (17) 249
28 43 Remmert Wielinga NED 10:00:43 10:43:37 01:12:04 05:05:57 03:37:42 9% +16% -75% (5) (258)
29 20 Christian Funk GER 10:57:58 11:16:33 01:24:14 05:49:22 03:39:23 38% +0% -62% (4) 265
30 22 German Garrote Borrull ESP 11:05:21 11:32:24 00:57:51 05:36:21 04:26:09 38% +62% -0% (2) (266)
31 34 Marek Nemcik SVK 11:40:06 12:16:25 01:12:22 05:52:40 04:30:04 32% +23% -45% (32) 267
5 Timothy Van Houtem BEL n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
9 Albert Moreno ESP n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
18 Santiago Abad de Agueda ESP n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
21 Romain Garcin FRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
23 Felix Haupt GER n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
25 Jerome Joussemet FRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
27 Geert Lauryssen BEL n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
30 Julien Marcq FRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
31 Martin Charles FRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
33 Jeremy Morel FRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
35 Seppe Odeyn BEL n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
36 Robin Pasteur FRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
37 Kevin Rundstadler FRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (1 IM Pro race) (n/a)
42 Sven Van Luyck BEL n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
45 Arnaud Guilloux FRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
48 Alain Djouad-Guibert MOR n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Consistency Overall
1 51 Tine Deckers BEL 09:15:26 09:34:55 00:58:07 05:06:30 03:05:49 48% +11% -41% (17) 37
2 52 Leanda Cave GBR 09:16:14 09:21:19 00:51:02 05:10:38 03:09:34 71% +10% -19% (18) 16
3 68 Kristin Moeller GER 09:28:40 09:33:47 01:03:14 05:22:15 02:58:10 79% +19% -2% (16) 36
4 67 Natascha Badmann SUI 09:33:47 09:33:35 01:01:50 05:10:02 03:16:55 51% +0% -49% (16) 34
5 66 Gurutze Frades Larralde ESP 09:40:21 09:56:03 01:01:59 05:29:18 03:04:05 23% +77% -0% (5) 75
6 65 Karen Thibodeau CAN 09:50:05 09:57:49 00:53:51 05:30:40 03:20:34 49% +0% -51% (9) 81
7 56 Tine Holst DEN 09:50:51 10:02:39 01:04:01 05:19:58 03:21:52 72% +28% -0% (11) 88
8 64 Erin Spitler USA 09:51:17 10:18:46 01:06:12 05:18:09 03:21:56 21% +41% -38% (6) 117
9 57 Tineke Van den Berg NED 09:51:25 10:08:47 01:05:22 05:17:16 03:23:48 45% +20% -36% (4) 101
10 58 Kate Comber GBR 09:55:34 10:12:02 00:55:18 05:32:18 03:22:59 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (106)
11 60 Corina Hengartner SUI 09:56:42 10:21:23 01:02:08 05:25:49 03:23:46 32% +38% -30% (3) (126)
12 54 Caroline Livesey GBR 09:57:26 10:02:35 01:00:36 05:26:31 03:25:19 79% +0% -21% (5) 86
13 59 Leslie DiMichele Miller USA 09:59:51 10:11:01 00:59:29 05:33:54 03:21:28 100% +0% -0% (2) (102)
14 62 Stephanie Reymond FRA 10:02:52 10:19:54 01:05:02 05:27:16 03:25:33 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (123)
15 63 Maggie Rusch USA 10:07:47 10:25:00 01:01:40 05:30:39 03:30:28 43% +27% -30% (4) 141
16 55 Nicole Woysch GER 10:19:42 10:54:32 00:58:52 05:32:56 03:42:53 22% +3% -75% (21) (163)
61 Michaela Renner-Schneck GER n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (1 IM Pro race) (n/a)
69 Emma Bilham SUI n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
70 Petra Krejcova CZE n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

Frederik Van Lierde has had great results in France and has won the race three times. He’s the clear favorite based on the numbers, but his season so far hasn’t been going well: He finished 70.3 Puerto Rico in 10th place and crashed at Challenge Fuerteventura, breaking his collar-bone. He’s recovered enough to start in France but it’s unclear how good his form will be. He’s followed by a number of athletes looking for Kona points: Stefan Schmid (3.280, but also on the list for IM Brasil), James Cunnama (3.225) and Michael Raelert (3.220) are close to the projected cutoff and should be fine with Top6 finish. Victor Del Corral has been injured and had to withdraw from racing Kona and his recent 70.3 results have not yet shown the fantastic runner that he was in 2013.

  • Frederik Van Lierde: 53% (1-1)
  • Stefan Schmid: 17% (5-1)
  • James Cunnama: 13% (7-1)
  • Victor Del Corral: 9% (10-1)
  • Michael Raelert: 3% (30-1)

Female Race Participants

Tine Deckers is going for her fifth win in France, she’s had some great results at the start of the year by winning 70.3s in Puerto Rico and Pays d’Aix. She faces strong competition by Leanda Cave who wants to erase the memory of her DQ when she didn’t have her bib number during the bike ride. As Kristin Möller is racing IM Brasil she is unlikely to start in Nice, Gurutze Frades is on the Brasil list as well. If both won’t start, then the likeliest candidate for the third podium spot is Natascha Badmann who’d love to race Kona as a 49-year old Pro. She would need a second place finish to secure a slot.

  • Leanda Cave: 46% (1-1)
  • Tine Deckers: 31% (2-1)
  • Kristin Moeller: 14% (6-1)
  • Natascha Badmann: 4% (21-1)
  • Gurutze Frades Larralde: 3% (36-1)

Emma Bilham races her first Ironman race, as part of her prep she won 70.3 Barcelona with a dominating bike split.

Challenge Venice 2016 (June 5th) – Predictions

ChallengeItalyLogoChallenge Venice is a new race on the calendar.

Prize Money

Challenge Venice has a total prize purse of 38.000 EUR.

Male Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Consistency Overall
1 1 Massimo Cigana ITA 08:49:14 08:47:06 00:57:52 04:46:12 03:00:09 100% +0% -0% (6) 60
2 4 Dirk Wijnalda NED 08:55:03 09:02:24 00:57:34 04:52:23 03:00:06 52% +47% -1% (18) 98
3 11 Sergio Marques POR 08:55:06 08:55:13 00:55:08 04:58:13 02:56:45 74% +6% -20% (35) 78
4 6 Teemu Lemmettylae FIN 09:00:35 08:59:46 00:58:02 04:53:54 03:03:39 88% +10% -2% (13) (93)
5 3 Petr Vabrousek CZE 09:06:04 09:04:25 00:56:27 04:56:24 03:08:13 75% +1% -24% (93) 108
6 5 Steven Osborne GBR 09:12:27 09:27:53 00:55:40 05:14:47 02:57:00 3% +91% -6% (13) 176
  7 Zoltan Petsuk HUN n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
  8 Michael Patrick Alonso Mckernan ESP n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
  9 Alex Diaconu ROM n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
  10 Francesco Cauz ITA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
  12 Malte Bruns GER n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Consistency Overall
1 13 Erika Csomor HUN 09:38:28 09:33:38 00:59:02 05:16:33 03:17:53 78% +0% -22% (32) 34
2 2 Martina Dogana ITA 09:46:15 09:45:28 00:58:37 05:23:44 03:18:54 99% +1% -0% (11) 51
3 15 Yvette Grice GBR 10:05:23 10:06:47 00:56:10 05:37:13 03:27:00 62% +26% -12% (23) 94
4 14 Carla Van Rooijen NED 10:12:50 10:19:27 01:13:07 05:28:53 03:25:50 66% +34% -0% (5) 117
5 17 Vanessa Pereira POR 10:36:34 10:44:23 01:03:41 05:45:44 03:42:09 48% +0% -52% (9) 160
6 16 Deborah Van Gossum BEL 11:42:54 11:57:01 00:57:01 06:06:55 04:33:58 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (165)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

  • Massimo Cigana: 53% (1-1)
  • Dirk Wijnalda: 20% (4-1)
  • Sergio Marques: 14% (6-1)
  • Teemu Lemmettylae: 9% (10-1)
  • Petr Vabrousek: 3% (32-1)

Female Race Participants

  • Martina Dogana: 46% (1-1)
  • Erika Csomor: 43% (1-1)
  • Yvette Grice: 7% (14-1)
  • Carla Van Rooijen: 3% (39-1)
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