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Ironman South Africa 2016 (April 10th) – Predictions

IMSALogoUpdate April 4th: Victor Del CorralAndreas Niedrig and Corinne Abraham won’t be starting.

Update April 6th: Daniela Sämmler has announced she has been sick and won’t start. Stephen Bayliss is reported by Tri247 to focus on IM Lanzarote. Diana Riesler will be racing IM Lanzarote and a start in Port Elizabeth seems very unlikely.

Update April 7th: Another German, Katja Konschak, has reportedly had an accident and won’t be racing.

Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2006 Gerrit Schellens (BEL) 08:36:06 Natascha Badmann (SUI) 09:46:38
2007 Gerrit Schellens (BEL) 08:33:05 Natascha Badmann (SUI) 09:22:01
2008 Stephen Bayliss (GBR) 08:18:23 Bella Bayliss (GBR) 09:27:48
2009 Marino Vanhoenacker (BEL) 08:17:32 Lucie Reed (CZE) 09:16:32
2010 Raynard Tissink (ZAF) 08:23:28 Sonja Tajsich (GER) 09:16:55
2011 Raynard Tissink (ZAF) 08:05:36 Chrissie Wellington (GBR) 08:33:56
2012 Clemente Alonso McKernan (ESP) 08:34:45 Natascha Badmann (SUI) 09:47:10
2013 Ronnie Schildknecht (SUI) 08:11:24 Jessie Donavan (USA) 09:10:58
2014 Nils Frommhold (GER) 08:26:07 Simone Braendli (SUI) 09:31:54
2015 Frederik Van Lierde (BEL) 08:16:35 Jodie Swallow (GBR) 09:26:56

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Frederik Van Lierde BEL 00:49:20 04:32:45 02:49:45 08:16:35
2 Ivan Rana ESP 00:49:28 04:48:22 02:48:44 08:30:45
3 Bart Aernouts BEL 00:52:07 04:44:30 02:55:04 08:35:59

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Jodie Swallow GBR 00:50:17 05:20:58 03:10:56 09:26:56
2 Lucy Gossage GBR 00:59:35 05:20:12 03:06:04 09:31:20
3 Susie Cheetham GBR 00:57:52 05:25:54 03:03:38 09:33:02

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:05:36 Raynard Tissink 2011-04-10
Swim overall 00:45:22 Anton Storm 2009-04-05
Bike overall 04:19:41 Raynard Tissink 2011-04-10
Run overall 02:45:48 Gerrit Schellens 2007-03-18
Total female 08:33:56 Chrissie Wellington 2011-04-10
Swim female 00:47:40 Lucie Reed 2009-04-05
Bike female 04:45:23 Chrissie Wellington 2011-04-10
Run female 02:52:54 Chrissie Wellington 2011-04-10

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM South Africa is 01:04.

The course has changed a bit this year – the bike course stays closer to the coast which might make it windier but also a lot less hilly than in previous years. Race conditions in South Africa depend a lot on the weather conditions, but the course changes could lead to fast times this year.

Race Adjustments for IM South Africa

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Finishers Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2006 -01:26 -05:28 -04:11 -00:35 28 -01:26 -05:28 -04:11 -00:35
2007 -04:39 -09:34 01:28 -01:26 33 -03:02 -07:31 -01:21 -01:01
2008 17:34 00:30 08:46 02:17 36 03:50 -04:51 02:01 00:05
2009 15:12 01:24 08:39 -02:45 28 06:40 -03:17 03:41 -00:37
2010 07:58 -00:52 07:52 01:19 34 06:56 -02:48 04:31 -00:14
2011 12:20 -00:23 13:11 02:18 36 07:50 -02:24 05:58 00:11
2012 -12:35 -09:02 -09:35 02:23 28 04:55 -03:21 03:44 00:30
2013 06:23 -01:48 09:45 02:52 36 of 44 05:06 -03:09 04:29 00:48
2014 -15:12 -01:35 -12:29 -01:16 29 of 40 02:51 -02:59 02:36 00:34
2015 -14:53 -01:24 -11:40 00:29 49 of 61 01:04 -02:49 01:11 00:34

KPR points and Prize Money

IM South Africa is a P-4000 race. It has a total prize purse of 150.000 US$ and automatic Kona slots for the male and female winners.

Male Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Overall
1 8 Bas Diederen NED 08:20:56 08:29:00 00:49:45 04:32:33 02:53:37 18
2 2 Ronnie Schildknecht SUI 08:20:59 08:30:44 00:53:51 04:31:45 02:50:23 20
3 4 Matt Trautman ZAF 08:24:36 08:36:07 00:52:16 04:34:48 02:52:32 35
4 19 James Cunnama ZAF 08:29:27 08:34:11 00:51:36 04:36:46 02:56:05 32
5 14 Kyle Buckingham ZAF 08:30:30 08:39:04 00:50:56 04:33:55 03:00:38 49
6 7 Tim Van Berkel AUS 08:31:23 08:38:02 00:51:29 04:40:50 02:54:04 45
7 3 Boris Stein GER 08:32:28 08:31:35 00:57:26 04:36:06 02:53:56 23
8 22 Alessandro Degasperi ITA 08:32:28 08:39:03 00:54:31 04:43:26 02:49:31 48
9 5 Victor Del Corral ESP 08:34:40 08:35:18 00:57:56 04:40:58 02:50:46 34
10 27 Christian Kramer GER 08:35:34 08:39:36 00:50:18 04:39:14 03:01:03 53
11 6 Ben Hoffman USA 08:35:46 08:36:22 00:51:10 04:36:14 03:03:22 38
12 45 Andrej Vistica CRO 08:38:31 08:45:57 00:54:42 04:38:02 03:00:47 71
13 9 Mike Aigroz SUI 08:38:38 08:44:36 00:50:20 04:41:39 03:01:39 63
14 44 Jan Van Berkel SUI 08:39:41 08:48:52 00:50:21 04:37:23 03:06:57 79
15 38 David Plese SLO 08:40:03 08:39:27 00:54:53 04:42:21 02:57:49 52
16 10 Marko Albert EST 08:40:18 08:37:59 00:49:25 04:42:49 03:03:04 44
17 37 Jens Petersen-Bach DEN 08:41:42 08:42:51 00:53:09 04:47:34 02:56:00 58
18 42 Darby Thomas FIN 08:43:50 08:51:14 01:01:15 04:41:33 02:56:02 87
19 35 Mark Oude Bennink NED 08:44:23 08:55:41 00:50:41 04:44:47 03:03:54 110
20 12 Stephen Bayliss GBR 08:45:23 08:51:07 00:49:59 04:46:07 03:04:18 86
21 17 Ben Collins USA 08:48:01 08:59:42 00:53:21 04:44:01 03:05:40 (124)
22 43 Markus Thomschke GER 08:51:06 08:59:10 00:55:40 04:38:09 03:12:17 119
23 11 Nick Baldwin SEY 08:54:28 09:09:06 00:55:19 04:48:20 03:05:48 165
24 34 Andreas Niedrig GER 08:55:19 09:04:45 00:50:05 04:38:23 03:21:51 145
25 20 Michael Davidson ZAF 08:55:51 09:02:06 00:58:03 04:53:31 02:59:16 (132)
26 28 Freddy Lampret ZAF 09:01:57 09:31:35 00:54:31 04:47:26 03:15:00 255
27 26 Olivier Godart LUX 09:06:27 09:18:33 00:57:28 04:59:51 03:04:09 (210)
28 32 Tomas Mika CZE 09:06:42 09:09:53 00:57:39 05:02:44 03:01:19 170
29 29 Cedric Lassonde FRA 09:09:10 09:11:20 00:58:27 04:51:57 03:13:47 175
30 39 Ivan Risti ITA 09:10:14 09:17:13 00:51:34 05:00:15 03:13:25 201
31 16 Greg Close USA 09:10:22 09:16:50 01:01:16 04:57:45 03:06:21 197
32 31 Felipe De Oliveira Manente BRA 09:15:16 09:27:26 00:55:46 05:03:42 03:10:48 235
33 41 Oliver Simon GBR 09:21:50 09:27:36 00:51:26 04:54:56 03:30:28 238
34 24 Lewis Elliot USA 09:23:07 09:43:46 00:56:51 04:52:46 03:28:30 (302)
35 30 Frederic Limousin FRA 09:32:23 09:42:01 00:56:49 05:06:08 03:24:26 (295)
36 15 Emanuele Ciotti ITA 09:33:18 09:43:24 00:54:49 05:06:52 03:26:37 (300)
37 21 Gerhard De Bruin ZAF 09:41:47 09:49:28 00:56:58 05:07:51 03:31:59 (322)
38 46 Eric Watson AUS 09:51:56 10:05:02 00:52:48 05:10:17 03:43:51 (369)
39 47 Ruedi Wild SUI 10:41:58 11:02:44 00:52:36 04:52:12 04:52:10 (472)
40 13 Simon Brierley SEY 10:45:41 10:53:40 01:02:41 05:28:36 04:09:24 (471)
41 33 Marek Nemcik SVK 11:41:45 12:09:08 01:15:30 05:47:18 04:33:56 477
23 Thomas De Schutter BEL n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
25 Frederic Garcia FRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Exp. Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Overall
1 48 Jodie Swallow GBR 09:12:33 09:19:52 00:50:43 05:02:18 03:14:32 (15)
2 49 Lucy Gossage GBR 09:15:16 09:17:42 01:00:39 05:02:07 03:07:30 10
3 50 Susie Cheetham GBR 09:18:09 09:17:03 00:57:56 05:11:53 03:03:20 7
4 64 Diana Riesler GER 09:20:16 09:26:27 00:59:51 04:58:48 03:16:36 22
5 52 Corinne Abraham GBR 09:20:21 09:21:15 01:01:50 05:04:50 03:08:41 16
6 69 Amanda Stevens USA 09:26:15 09:30:05 00:53:44 05:11:50 03:15:41 26
7 53 Annabel Luxford AUS 09:26:24 09:27:37 00:54:14 05:03:48 03:23:21 (24)
8 61 Kaisa Lehtonen FIN 09:27:39 09:40:13 00:56:21 05:14:11 03:12:07 (45)
9 62 Asa Lundstroem SWE 09:31:48 09:32:47 01:03:14 05:08:23 03:15:11 32
10 65 Darbi Roberts USA 09:36:32 09:46:19 00:55:03 05:16:27 03:20:02 (57)
11 66 Daniela Saemmler GER 09:37:24 09:40:07 00:58:09 05:12:25 03:21:50 44
12 57 Dede Griesbauer USA 09:42:52 09:56:48 00:55:12 05:11:49 03:30:51 81
13 68 Bianca Steurer AUT 09:47:55 09:54:52 00:59:49 05:25:59 03:17:08 74
14 60 Katja Konschak GER 09:49:53 09:59:46 00:55:18 05:29:08 03:20:26 88
15 58 Katharina Grohmann GER 09:58:41 10:06:21 01:13:58 05:21:31 03:18:12 98
16 56 Annett Finger GER 10:03:24 10:16:45 01:09:59 05:23:25 03:25:00 (121)
17 70 Verena Walter GER 10:04:05 10:08:01 01:02:35 05:22:57 03:33:33 103
18 55 Mariana Andrade BRA 10:06:06 10:23:09 01:03:44 05:19:22 03:38:00 142
19 67 Lina-Kristin Schink GER 10:09:05 10:13:20 01:14:19 05:24:31 03:25:15 116
20 54 Rahel Bellinga NED 10:35:42 10:38:53 01:06:29 05:20:06 04:04:07 170
21 59 Claire Horner ZAF 10:39:37 10:52:26 01:03:59 05:39:26 03:51:11 (177)
71 Annah Watkinson ZAF n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

After Jan Frodeno had to cancel his start in South Africa, the race is much more open. Based on previous results Ronnie Schildknecht and Bas Diederen are a step ahead of the rest, but there are 20 athletes that I expect to finish within 25 minutes so a lot can happen on race day. I’m sure that the South African athletes will be working extra hard for a podium spot (if not the very top spot), and it’ll be very interesting to follow Matt Trainman, James Cunnama and Kyle Buckingham on race day. Then there are a number of international athletes that could also do well:

  • Ronnie Schildknecht: 30% (2-1)
  • Bas Diederen: 25% (3-1)
  • Matt Trautman: 9% (10-1)
  • James Cunnama: 7% (13-1)
  • Jan Van Berkel: 5% (18-1)
  • Ben Hoffman: 5% (19-1)
  • Kyle Buckingham: 4% (23-1)
  • Tim Van Berkel: 4% (27-1)

Female Race Participants

Based on the performance she showed last year, Jodie Swallow is the front runner in the women’s race. She faces strong competition by her British compatriots Corinne Abraham (hopefully back to racing healthy), Lucy Gossage (hopefully recovered from racing IM New Zealand) and Susie Cheetham (probably not quite at 100% after breaking her arm at 70.3 South Africa in January).

  • Jodie Swallow: 40% (1-1)
  • Corinne Abraham: 20% (4-1)
  • Lucy Gossage: 19% (4-1)
  • Diana Riesler: 11% (8-1)
  • Susie Cheetham: 5% (20-1)
  • Amanda Stevens: 4% (23-1)

Ironman New Zealand 2016 – Analyzing Results

Race Conditions

The 2016 conditions were quite favorable for fast times, hardly any wind, cloudy on the bike and not too hot on the run – probably the best they have been in recent years (adjustment of 9:06, new course rating of 5:36). There have been some very fast times on the bike: The old women’s course record was 5:01 which was beaten by five athletes – Lucy Gossage now has the new record of 4:51:39. There has also been a new male bike course record of 4:22:31 by Dougal Allen, improving Bevan Docherty’s old record by more than twelve minutes! We’ve also seen a new run course record by Matt Hanson (2:41:20).

But it is interesting to note that while the winners had good bike times (still under the old records), they left enough in the tank for some great runs as well – Cam Brown running the second fastest 2:44 marathon and Meredith Kessler running a new run PR and run course record of 3:06:03. Getting the mix right allowed both of them to post new overall course records of 8:07:58 by Cam (improving Bevan’s  8:15 from 2013) and 8:56:08 by Meredith – the first sub-9 in Taupo, improving on last year’s 9:05.

Male Race Results

As usual Dylan McNeice was leading after the swim, but he struggled a bit after racing in Wanaka two weeks ago, eventually DNF’ing on the run. On the bike a large front group of more than ten athletes formed, only Cyril Viennot managed to build a bit of a lead into T2. Some slower swimmers were able to cut down the distance to the front group, so the race was wide open at the start of the run.

Callum Millward was pushing the pace early on, and only Cam Brown was able to stay with him. Cam was able to build a gap around the 30k mark but for a long time Callum stayed within a minute of Cam. Cam proved that he perfectly judged his effort, winning for the 12th time at IM New Zealand with a new course record – what a legend!

Second place went to Joe Skipper who had some gas left in the tank for the last 10k. After fighting for the win for most of the day, Callum Millward had to be content with third place. Fourth place went to the fastest runner of the day, Matt Hanson who posted a new run course record of 2:41:20 – faster than all the 2015 IM marathons! As usual Matt Russell also had a good run, allowing him to move from 11th place in T2 into 5th place.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected Prize Money
1 Cameron Brown NZL 00:48:37 04:29:13 02:44:54 08:07:58 -14:16 US$ 14000
2 Joe Skipper GBR 00:53:11 04:25:11 02:45:51 08:09:37 -18:31 US$ 7000
3 Callum Millward NZL 00:46:49 04:31:13 02:48:01 08:10:57 -11:14 US$ 4500
4 Matt Hanson USA 00:51:34 04:34:42 02:41:20 08:12:30 -22:28 US$ 3000
5 Matthew Russell USA 00:56:23 04:28:28 02:45:10 08:15:25 -23:31 US$ 2500
6 Terenzo Bozzone NZL 00:46:46 04:31:27 02:56:55 08:19:53 -06:25 US$ 2000
7 Dougal Allan NZL 00:56:26 04:22:13 03:00:43 08:24:27 02:33 US$ 1500
8 Cyril Viennot FRA 00:48:38 04:26:50 03:06:38 08:27:36 02:22 US$ 1250
9 Simon Cochrane NZL 00:48:32 04:32:28 03:02:08 08:28:13 -26:35 US$ 1000
10 Mark Bowstead NZL 00:46:36 04:31:30 03:06:15 08:29:38 n/a US$ 750
11 Guy Crawford NZL 00:46:43 04:31:22 03:20:08 08:43:28 -19:56
12 Antony Costes FRA 00:46:40 04:33:42 03:19:27 08:44:40 n/a
13 Tohara Kaito JPN 00:49:54 04:51:56 02:56:57 08:45:24 -15:55
14 Clayton Fettell AUS 00:46:40 04:40:26 03:16:11 08:48:15 22:02
15 Chris Sanson NZL 00:56:22 04:48:42 03:02:26 08:53:38 -04:32
16 Simon Billeau FRA 04:38:54 03:15:02 08:54:14 09:22
17 Darren Jenkins AUS 01:02:44 05:01:10 02:54:12 09:05:06 00:38
18 Young Hwan Oh KOR 00:59:18 04:56:46 03:07:20 09:09:43 -1:20:18
19 Sam Clark NZL 00:56:19 04:56:23 03:28:01 09:27:41 26:07
20 Brad Williams USA 00:53:12 04:47:47 03:45:38 09:32:59 03:37
21 Matt Randall NZL 00:57:51 05:00:03 03:45:18 09:49:37 09:31
Alex Reithmeier AUS 00:48:42 04:43:43 DNF
Dylan McNeice NZL 00:44:54 04:48:47 DNF
Michael Poole AUS 00:48:40 04:47:36 DNF
Paul Matthews AUS 00:46:41 04:50:42 DNF
Daniel garry Brown AUS 01:00:58 05:51:32 DNF
Swen Sundberg GER 00:53:09 DNF
David Naesvik SWE 00:53:45 DNF

Female Race Results

IM rookie Lauren Brandon had the fastest swim – her 46:00 moved her well into the leading male Pros. While she was quicker than the course record swim of Monica Byrn (nee Kaplan), Lauren wasn’t able to finish the race and couldn’t claim a new course record.

Meredith Kessler was second out of the water and quickly took the lead on the bike. The lead quickly extended to around 8 minutes but the fast bike riders Lucy Gossage and Laura Siddall worked to cut it down to about two minutes in T2. But MBK quickly showed that she wasn’t ready to relinquish her grip on the New Zealand title and posted the fastest run for a sub-9 finish and new course record – her fifth consecutive win at IM New Zealand. (Her first was the shortened 2012 race.)

Behind Meredith, Laura was the best runner at the start, but then her race from two week ago caught up with her and she eventually dropped to fourth place. Second place went to Lucy Gossage who had some issues early in the run but ended up two minutes ahead of Carrie Lester who had the second best run to claim third. Amanda Stevens had another solid race with a good run in fifth place.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected Prize Money
1 Meredith Kessler USA 00:47:49 04:56:40 03:06:03 08:56:08 -14:09 US$ 14000
2 Lucy Gossage GBR 00:55:45 04:51:39 03:12:10 09:05:08 -04:03 US$ 7000
3 Carrie Lester AUS 00:52:14 05:01:22 03:08:13 09:07:19 -14:52 US$ 4500
4 Laura Siddall GBR 00:55:38 04:53:11 03:14:53 09:09:08 -25:31 US$ 3000
5 Amanda Stevens USA 00:50:44 05:05:38 03:10:29 09:12:50 -09:08 US$ 2500
6 Michelle Bremer NZL 00:55:32 05:00:10 03:14:14 09:15:43 -16:32 US$ 2000
7 Mareen Hufe GER 00:59:26 04:55:28 03:15:52 09:16:53 -10:14 US$ 1500
8 Gina Crawford NZL 00:50:47 05:12:42 03:22:30 09:32:51 18:39 US$ 1250
9 Candice Hammond NZL 01:01:59 05:13:44 03:14:37 09:35:36 08:07 US$ 1000
10 Vanessa Murray NZL 00:52:17 05:16:43 03:24:08 09:39:16 n/a US$ 750
11 Melanie Burke NZL 00:59:29 05:15:47 03:27:35 09:49:12 09:37
12 Marina Jurjevic AUS 01:04:14 05:16:46 03:39:08 10:07:31 08:01
13 Tracy Morrison AUS 00:59:21 05:41:33 03:29:47 10:16:37 n/a
14 Kristy Hallett AUS 00:59:58 05:29:32 03:42:56 10:19:37 09:02
15 Larisa Cochrane NZL 00:55:48 05:19:08 04:28:49 10:50:16 n/a
16 Caroline Martineau CAN 01:02:04 06:06:17 04:48:59 12:10:49 1:05:58
Lauren Brandon USA 00:46:00 05:17:01 DNF
Lisa Marangon AUS 00:52:22 05:12:40 DNF
Kate Bevilaqua AUS 00:52:19 05:17:12 DNF
Keiko Tanaka JPN 00:52:16 05:41:36 DNF
Jocelyn Mccauley USA 00:55:46 DNF

Continental and National Fastest Times

After the fast times at the end of 2015 there has been some discussion about continental and national “records” over the Ironman-distance. Because of doubts about the accuracy of courses, comparing times from different courses is always a bit tricky, but here is an overview of the data I was able to compile.

Please let me know if I missed some older results that are better than the continental and national records in this list!

Continental Records

Female Athletes

Continent Athlete Nation Time Date Race
Africa McEwan, Dianne ZAF 09:37:45 14.04.13 IM South Africa
Asia/Pacific Shiono, Emi JPN 09:23:26 01.03.08 IM New Zealand
Australia Carfrae, Mirinda AUS 08:38:53 20.07.14 Challenge Roth
Europe Wellington, Chrissie GBR 08:18:13 10.07.11 Challenge Roth
North America Corbin, Linsey USA 08:42:42 29.06.14 IM Austria
South America Monticeli, Ariane BRA 08:59:08 31.05.15 IM Brasil

Male Athletes

Continent Athlete Nation Time Date Race
Africa Cunnama, James ZAF 07:59:59 08.07.12 Challenge Roth
Asia/Pacific Vernay, Patrick NCL 08:03:46 12.07.09 Challenge Roth
Australia McCormack, Chris AUS 07:54:23 24.06.07 Challenge Roth
Europe Raelert, Andreas GER 07:41:33 10.07.11 Challenge Roth
North America Starykowicz, Andrew USA 07:55:22 02.11.13 IM Florida
South America Amorelli, Igor BRA 07:59:36 31.05.15 IM Brasil

National Records

Sometimes, the nation of an athlete is not clear – often athletes are listed with their country of residence (e.g. foreign athletes staying in Boulder), and some athletes have dual citizenships. Please let me know if I have mis-attributed a fast result by an athlete to the wrong country!

Female Athletes

Nation Athlete Total Date Race
AUS Carfrae, Mirinda 08:38:53 20.07.14 Challenge Roth
AUT Wutti, Eva 08:37:36 18.08.13 IM Copenhagen
BEL Goos, Sofie 08:57:08 29.06.14 IM Austria
BRA Monticeli, Ariane 08:59:08 31.05.15 IM Brasil
CAN Naeth, Angela 08:54:55 28.09.14 IM Chattanooga
CZE Reed, Lucie 08:57:34 06.10.13 Challenge Barcelona
DEN Pedersen, Camilla 08:56:01 07.07.13 IM Germany
FIN Lehtonen, Kaisa 08:48:40 04.10.15 IM Barcelona
FRA Collonge, Jeanne 09:20:51 23.06.13 IM France
GBR Wellington, Chrissie 08:18:13 10.07.11 Challenge Roth
GER Wallenhorst, Sandra 08:47:26 13.07.08 IM Austria
HUN Csomor, Erika 08:47:05 13.07.08 Challenge Roth
IRL Mullan, Eimear 08:56:51 04.10.15 IM Barcelona
ITA Niederfriniger, Edith 08:59:45 13.07.08 IM Austria
NED Van Vlerken, Yvonne 08:43:07 02.11.13 IM Florida
NZL Martin, Britta 08:56:34 07.12.14 IM Western Australia
SUI Steffen, Caroline 08:34:51 24.03.12 IM Melbourne
SWE Lundstroem, Asa 09:02:49 22.03.15 IM Melbourne
UKR Kozulina, Tamara 09:06:42 13.07.08 IM Austria
USA Corbin, Linsey 08:42:42 29.06.14 IM Austria
ZAF McEwan, Dianne 09:37:45 14.04.13 IM South Africa

Male Athletes

Nation Athlete Finish Date Race
AUS McCormack, Chris 07:54:23 24.06.07 Challenge Roth
AUT Weiss, Michael 07:57:39 03.07.11 IM Austria
BEL Vanhoenacker, Marino 07:45:58 03.07.11 IM Austria
BMU Butterfield, Tyler 08:05:22 31.05.15 IM Brasil
BRA Amorelli, Igor 07:59:36 31.05.15 IM Brasil
CAN McMahon, Brent 07:55:48 16.11.14 IM Arizona
CZE Ospaly, Filip 07:58:44 02.11.13 IM Florida
DEN Henning, Rasmus 07:52:36 18.07.10 Challenge Roth
ESP Rana, Ivan 07:48:43 29.06.14 IM Austria
EST Albert, Marko 08:08:17 03.07.11 IM Austria
FRA Chevrot, Denis 08:05:58 07.12.14 IM Western Australia
GBR Amey, Paul 08:01:29 19.11.11 IM Arizona
GER Raelert, Andreas 07:41:33 10.07.11 Challenge Roth
LUX Bockel, Dirk 07:52:01 14.07.13 Challenge Roth
NCL Vernay, Patrick 08:03:46 12.07.09 Challenge Roth
NED Van der Marel, Jan 07:57:46 04.09.1999 Almere Triathlon
NED Diederen, Bas 08:05:36 05.07.15 IM Germany
NZL Brown, Cameron 08:00:12 24.03.12 IM Melbourne
POR Marques, Sergio 08:05:21 06.10.13 Challenge Barcelona
SLO Plese, David 08:02:20 04.10.15 IM Barcelona
SUI Schildknecht, Ronnie 07:59:42 05.11.11 IM Florida
SWE Nilsson, Patrik 08:08:05 15.08.15 IM Sweden
USA Starykowicz, Andrew 07:55:22 02.11.13 IM Florida
ZAF Cunnama, James 07:59:59 08.07.12 Challenge Roth

Notes

There are a few records that need some explanations.

Female African & South African Record

I have listed Dianne McEwan (now Dianne Emery who became a mom in January) as the African record holder, but she herself considers Annah Watkinson’s 9:31 from IM Austria 2015 as the record. Annah has been racing as an age-grouper then, and because of the different race dynamics from the Pro race I’m not counting her result. But Annah has turned Pro this season, so there’s a good chance we will see a new African record this year, maybe as early as IM South Africa!

Male Canadian Record

Lionel Sanders sent me the following tweet after I posted the fastest times:

SandersTweet

Lionel is right that Peter finished in 7:51:56 in 1999. However, it is accepted that the marathon in Klagenfurt was short (Peter ran a 2:35:21!) – probably by more than 1k. With Peter being a great athlete and fast runner, one could speculate if he could have finished faster than Brent’s 7:55:48, but I’ve decided to not accept his time as a record.

Male Dutch Record

Jefry Visier, the Operational Director of Challenge Almere, was going through older Almere results and found four times (three by Jan Van der Marel and one by Frank Heldoorn) that were quicker than the one I had from Bas Diederen.

Ironman New Zealand 2016 (March 5th) – Predictions

Update Feb 29th: There have been a few changes to the latest startlist: Per Bittner, Johan Borg and Mackenzie Madison won’t be racing.
IMNZ

Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2005 Cameron Brown (NZL) 08:20:15 Joanna Lawn (NZL) 09:30:14
2007 Cameron Brown (NZL) 08:26:33 Joanna Lawn (NZL) 09:20:02
2008 Cameron Brown (NZL) 08:24:49 Joanna Lawn (NZL) 09:16:00
2009 Cameron Brown (NZL) 08:18:05 Gina Crawford (NZL) 09:18:26
2010 Cameron Brown (NZL) 08:21:52 Joanna Lawn (NZL) 09:14:35
2011 Cameron Brown (NZL) 08:31:07 Samantha Warriner (NZL) 09:28:24
2013 Bevan Docherty (NZL) 08:15:35 Meredith Kessler (USA) 09:17:10
2014 Marko Albert (EST) 08:17:33 Meredith Kessler (USA) 09:08:46
2015 Cameron Brown (NZL) 08:22:13 Meredith Kessler (USA) 09:05:45

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Cameron Brown NZL 00:50:02 04:37:39 02:49:08 08:22:13
2 Terenzo Bozzone NZL 00:47:04 04:41:08 02:55:51 08:28:53
3 Dylan McNeice NZL 00:44:26 04:53:27 02:54:24 08:38:05

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Meredith Kessler USA 00:49:36 05:04:29 03:07:18 09:05:45
2 Gina Crawford NZL 00:51:25 05:16:55 03:11:13 09:26:11
3 Melanie Burke NZL 01:02:46 05:12:19 03:20:29 09:41:51

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:15:35 Bevan Docherty 2013-03-02
Swim overall 00:44:26 Dylan McNeice 2015-03-07
Bike overall 04:35:06 Bevan Docherty 2013-03-02
Run overall 02:43:10 Cameron Brown 2009-03-07
Total female 09:05:45 Meredith Kessler 2015-03-07
Swim female 00:46:30 Monica Byrn 2005-05-03
Bike female 05:01:17 Emi Shiono 2008-03-01
Run female 03:01:06 Mirinda Carfrae 2011-03-05

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM New Zealand is 05:09.

Race Adjustments for IM New Zealand

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Finishers Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2007 08:39 00:56 -00:21 06:30 24 08:39 00:56 -00:21 06:30
2008 09:27 01:37 02:46 04:33 36 09:03 01:16 01:13 05:31
2009 08:06 -00:01 03:19 03:03 38 08:44 00:51 01:55 04:42
2010 06:18 01:04 04:33 03:28 22 08:07 00:54 02:34 04:23
2011 -02:24 00:31 00:28 -00:58 24 06:01 00:49 02:09 03:19
2013 00:41 00:44 04:11 01:23 24 05:08 00:49 02:29 03:00
2014 03:02 01:04 00:00 02:29 31 of 41 04:50 00:51 02:08 02:55
2015 07:25 01:11 04:04 05:10 22 of 27 05:09 00:53 02:23 03:12

KPR points and Prize Money

IM New Zealand is a P-2000 race. It has a total prize purse of 75.000 US$.

Male Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Overall
1 1 Cameron Brown NZL 08:24:03 08:35:34 00:49:51 04:39:23 02:49:50 33
2 9 Dougal Allan NZL 08:26:33 08:35:30 00:58:20 04:27:54 02:55:19 32
3 4 Cyril Viennot FRA 08:27:19 08:33:47 00:49:36 04:38:58 02:53:46 26
4 2 Terenzo Bozzone NZL 08:29:35 08:34:44 00:46:52 04:41:53 02:55:50 29
5 7 Paul Matthews AUS 08:30:01 08:38:31 00:46:04 04:40:03 02:58:54 45
6 21 Callum Millward NZL 08:30:28 08:45:56 00:47:47 04:43:17 02:54:24 (69)
7 29 Joe Skipper GBR 08:32:45 08:41:33 00:53:12 04:37:33 02:56:59 54
8 5 Matt Hanson USA 08:33:21 08:43:16 00:53:17 04:46:54 02:48:09 59
9 18 Clayton Fettell AUS 08:34:27 08:50:43 00:44:51 04:38:18 03:06:17 (86)
10 6 Per Bittner GER 08:36:59 08:42:16 00:48:53 04:42:03 03:01:03 56
11 26 Matthew Russell USA 08:38:32 08:47:17 00:56:25 04:41:41 02:55:26 74
12 3 Dylan McNeice NZL 08:41:49 08:50:22 00:44:50 04:49:25 03:02:33 84
13 8 Alex Reithmeier AUS 08:44:01 08:58:17 00:50:06 04:45:48 03:03:07 (115)
14 11 Simon Billeau FRA 08:50:51 09:04:36 00:53:47 04:41:29 03:10:34 145
15 30 Swen Sundberg GER 08:52:32 08:53:36 00:52:20 04:47:44 03:07:29 98
16 22 David Naesvik SWE 08:53:21 09:02:17 00:54:36 04:44:53 03:08:51 132
17 31 Tohara Kaito JPN 08:55:54 09:15:40 00:52:44 04:58:59 02:59:11 194
18 16 Simon Cochrane NZL 08:56:16 09:08:48 00:50:38 04:55:54 03:04:43 162
19 17 Guy Crawford NZL 08:57:05 09:17:44 00:48:23 04:43:03 03:20:39 206
20 27 Chris Sanson NZL 08:59:02 09:12:38 00:56:00 04:54:56 03:03:06 180
21 20 Cedric Lassonde FRA 09:05:01 09:11:20 00:55:03 04:52:39 03:12:19 174
22 12 Johan Borg AUS 09:06:44 09:29:12 00:55:30 04:56:33 03:09:40 244
23 15 Sam Clark NZL 09:11:20 09:27:50 00:56:40 05:00:24 03:09:15 (242)
24 19 Darren Jenkins AUS 09:13:59 09:19:11 01:04:37 05:01:41 03:02:40 210
25 32 Brad Williams USA 09:25:25 09:44:49 00:56:09 05:01:26 03:22:50 307
26 25 Matt Randall NZL 09:50:23 10:07:55 00:58:41 04:58:33 03:48:09 (389)
27 23 Young Hwan Oh KOR 10:39:31 11:05:14 01:01:59 05:24:08 04:08:24 (478)
28 14 Daniel Brown AUS 10:50:23 11:30:56 01:03:42 05:36:34 04:05:07 (483)
10 Antony Costes FRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
13 Mark Bowstead NZL n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
24 Michael Poole AUS n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Exp. Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Overall
1 40 Meredith Kessler USA 09:06:48 09:19:19 00:48:32 05:03:07 03:10:09 14
2 41 Gina Crawford NZL 09:16:48 09:35:11 00:51:15 05:11:16 03:09:17 37
3 47 Lucy Gossage GBR 09:17:24 09:18:22 00:57:54 05:07:08 03:07:22 12
4 46 Carrie Lester AUS 09:21:50 09:31:25 00:53:32 05:09:30 03:13:47 26
5 43 Amanda Stevens USA 09:25:12 09:31:17 00:50:34 05:13:43 03:15:55 25
6 54 Candice Hammond NZL 09:28:16 09:42:57 01:00:27 05:12:06 03:10:43 (49)
7 45 Mareen Hufe GER 09:30:26 09:36:30 00:59:44 05:04:32 03:21:10 39
8 62 Laura Siddall GBR 09:30:37 09:49:44 00:56:47 05:07:04 03:21:46 63
9 55 Jennie Hansen USA 09:36:33 09:45:53 01:03:08 05:19:01 03:09:24 (52)
10 44 Michelle Bremer NZL 09:38:56 09:47:26 00:57:11 05:15:41 03:21:04 57
11 57 Lisa Marangon AUS 09:41:07 10:02:39 00:53:23 05:11:51 03:30:53 (90)
12 48 Mackenzie Madison USA 09:41:10 09:49:27 00:57:50 05:18:16 03:20:04 61
13 42 Melanie Burke NZL 09:42:07 09:49:31 01:04:39 05:13:55 03:18:33 62
14 49 Kate Bevilaqua AUS 09:45:17 09:58:50 00:54:49 05:19:49 03:25:39 85
15 63 Keiko Tanaka JPN 09:55:03 10:06:12 00:54:34 05:29:32 03:25:57 99
16 59 Jocelyn Mccauley USA 09:55:34 10:16:37 00:58:50 05:30:45 03:21:00 (121)
17 51 Anna Cleaver NZL 09:58:43 10:22:15 00:52:37 05:26:00 03:35:06 138
18 58 Caroline Martineau CAN 10:09:37 10:23:21 01:02:17 05:31:17 03:31:03 143
19 56 Marina Jurjevic AUS 10:09:57 10:21:59 01:05:30 05:21:37 03:37:50 (136)
20 53 Kristy Hallett AUS 10:12:28 10:27:15 01:02:03 05:24:26 03:40:59 158
50 Lauren Brandon USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
52 Larisa Cochrane NZL n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
60 Tracy Morrison AUS n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
61 Vanessa Murray NZL n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

If there is a favorite among the strong field, it has to be Cameron Brown who has won this race 11(!) times. It is hard to choose a second tier, based on the previous results my picks are Cyril Viennot (5th and 6th in Kona), Matt Hanson (winner of IM Texas but crashed in Kona) and Dougal Allen (recent winner of Challenge Wanaka). Paul Matthews has been struggling a bit in his last races and will be looking for a good start to 2016 racing. Even the athletes with comparatively small statistical odds are very good athletes: Matthew Russell (always with a strong run split), Joe Skipper and Dylan McNeice (looking for a good result after Wanaka), or Terenzo Bozzone (always about to break through over the IM distance).

  • Cameron Brown: 21% (4-1)
  • Cyril Viennot: 19% (4-1)
  • Matt Hanson: 15% (5-1)
  • Dougal Allan: 15% (6-1)
  • Paul Matthews: 9% (11-1)
  • Matthew Russell: 5% (17-1)
  • Joe Skipper: 5% (21-1)
  • Dylan McNeice: 3% (31-1)
  • Terenzo Bozzone: 3% (33-1)

Female Race Participants

3-time defending Champion Meredith Kessler is the clear favorite on the female side, but with competition such as Carrie Lester (winner of Chattanooga), Gina Crawford (another athlete looking for redemption after a DNF in Wanaka) or Lucy Gossage (winner of IM UK and 10th in Kona) Meredith’s top spot is far from assured.

  • Meredith Kessler: 59% (1-1)
  • Carrie Lester: 14% (6-1)
  • Gina Crawford: 10% (9-1)
  • Lucy Gossage: 8% (11-1)

Lauren Brandon could be an interesting IM rookie, with her strong swim and bike she’ll be near the front at least until the early parts of the run.

Challenge Wanaka 2016 – Analyzing Results

Race Conditions

As usual, Challenge Wanaka was a tough course. This year conditions changed throughout the day – a choppy swim was followed by a warm windy bike and rain on the run. The overall adjustment was almost the same as last year, but the 2016 bike was slower and the run a bit faster.

Technically, Dylan McNeice’s swim time of 43:30 was faster than his 2015 course record of 45:33, but as the swim was slightly shortened it will probably not count as a new record, even if this year’s swim was only a bit more than a minute faster than last year’s swim.

Male Race Results

WanakaDougalAs usual, Dylan McNeice was leading after the swim. He held on the lead until Maik Twelsiek took the lead at about 100k. Maik was leading in T2, but Dougal Allen improved his swim time from last year by more than eight minutes, posted the fastest bike ride of the day and was less than four minutes behind Maik in T2. It took him less than 15k to close the gap to Maik, and Dougal ended up winning his first IM-distance race by almost 9 minutes. Maik held on to second place, third place went to Matthew Russell who once more posted the fastest marathon of the day. Defending champion Dylan McNeice was dropped back to fourth, he was almost caught towards the end by Per Bittner who finished fifth.

Joe Skipper was the unfortunate DNF among the pre-race favorites, he had some technical issues after his bike was damaged during his flight to New Zealand. Hopefully he can get it fixed in time for IM New Zealand in two weeks, I’m sure he’ll be even more motivated to do well in Taupo now.
Photo: Dougal Allen celebrates his win, Photo by Hagen Hopkins/Getty Images

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected
1 Dougal Allan NZL 00:54:39 04:36:06 02:57:23 08:31:53 -14:39
2 Maik Twelsiek GER 00:48:44 04:37:57 03:09:55 08:40:48 -09:17
3 Matthew Russell USA 00:54:30 04:48:55 02:54:29 08:42:53 -17:12
4 Dylan McNeice NZL 00:43:30 04:53:46 03:28:51 09:10:29 08:59
5 Per Bittner GER 00:49:25 04:59:54 03:17:57 09:11:37 19:02
6 Chris Sanson NZL 00:55:02 05:03:34 03:13:36 09:16:59 -04:19
7 Allister Caird AUS 00:54:25 05:13:44 03:16:25 09:29:14 n/a
8 Brad Williams USA 00:54:21 05:17:43 03:32:07 09:50:44 -05:29
9 Dan McGuigan AUS 01:03:28 05:27:22 03:38:23 10:15:12 10:25
Graham O’Grady NZL 00:45:43 05:14:05 DNF
Sean Donnelly GER 00:48:40 05:26:10 DNF
Matt Randall NZL 00:58:12 05:17:08 DNF
Joe Skipper GBR 00:54:29 DNF

Female Race Results

WanakaYvonne

While it wasn’t a surprise to see Anna Cleaver leading the race into T1, Laura Sidall and Yvonne Van Vlerken were in the same group with Gina Crawford just a few seconds behind – both Laura and Yvonne are typically slower swimmers and must have worked hard during the winter. Both quickly stormed to the front and Laura built a small lead into T2. The rest of the field was quite far behind after Gina, Simone Maier and Alyssa Godesky had to withdraw on the bike.

Yvonne proved to be the stronger runner, her race best marathon allowed her to build a margin of three minutes to the finish, but Laura also had a good run, continued to keep the pressure on Yvonne and finished in second place. Age grouper Meredith Hill had the third fastest female finish time, Julia Grant finished third in the Pro ranks.

Photo: Yvonne and Laura congratulate each other after the finish, Photo by Hannah Peters/Getty Images

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected
1 Yvonne Van Vlerken NED 00:54:32 05:15:53 03:12:01 09:26:50 -03:25
2 Laura Siddall GBR 00:54:31 05:12:29 03:19:05 09:30:19 -38:09
3 Julia Grant NZL 00:58:39 06:03:13 03:32:45 10:39:42 22:08
4 April Gellatly USA 00:54:51 05:58:34 03:55:45 10:55:05 30:48
5 Rachael Paxton AUS 00:58:14 05:57:12 04:14:03 11:16:09 n/a
6 Anna Cleaver NZL 00:54:19 06:01:48 04:19:15 11:22:50 1:11:47
Gina Crawford NZL 00:54:30 DNF
Tamsyn Hayes NZL 01:00:11 DNF
Alyssa Godesky USA 01:01:40 DNF
Simone Maier GER 01:04:47 DNF
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