IM Australia 2012 – Predictions (Details Post)

Male Race Participants

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Tim Berkel AUS 08:47:24 08:51:13 91
2 Paul Ambrose GBR 08:50:30 08:54:20 106
3 Jason Shortis AUS 08:52:57 08:56:48 115
4 Dan Brown PHI 08:54:13 08:58:05 124
5 Leon Griffin AUS 08:58:46 09:02:40 150
6 Chris Dmitrieff AUS 09:13:52 09:17:52 259
7 Scott Defilippis USA 09:19:49 09:23:52 306

Female Race Participants

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Michelle Mitchell AUS 09:38:05 09:42:16 42
2 Kat Baker AUS 09:58:22 10:02:42 91
3 Nicole Ward AUS 10:00:34 10:04:55 99
4 Hillary Biscay USA 10:10:14 10:14:39 140

Results for Tim Berkel (AUS)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
Challenge Cairns 2011-06-05 08:29:20 08:37:08 08:51:13 3
IM Australia 2010-03-28 08:40:46 08:48:36 08:55:45 6
IM Western Australia 2009-12-05 09:33:04 09:49:54 08:57:53 16
IM Australia 2009-04-05 08:31:43 08:34:18 08:38:32 3
IM Western Australia 2008-12-07 08:07:06 08:20:53 08:40:25 1
IM Australia 2008-04-06 08:44:20 08:47:02 08:53:36 4
IM Switzerland 2007-06-24 08:49:07 09:01:49 09:01:49 5

Results for Paul Ambrose (GBR)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM St. George 2011-05-07 08:51:41 08:51:52 08:54:20 6
IM Louisville 2010-08-29 08:29:59 08:32:42 08:55:05 1
IM Australia 2010-03-28 08:38:24 08:46:12 09:02:31 5
IM Arizona 2009-11-22 08:24:54 08:33:58 09:09:20 5
IM Austria 2009-07-05 08:40:06 08:56:07 09:30:48 11
IM Arizona 2008-11-23 10:04:18 10:12:11 10:12:11 42

Results for Jason Shortis (AUS)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Melbourne 2012-03-24 08:57:33 09:06:28 08:56:48 21
IM Western Australia 2011-12-04 08:27:31 08:35:47 08:55:39 3
IM Canada 2011-08-28 09:12:55 09:17:02 08:58:06 10
IM Lake Placid 2011-07-24 08:47:18 08:49:16 08:55:39 3
IM Australia 2011-05-01 08:46:07 08:54:04 08:56:34 3
IM Louisville 2010-08-29 10:12:54 10:16:09 08:56:58 13
IM South Africa 2010-04-25 08:34:52 08:42:26 08:45:23 4
IM Western Australia 2009-12-05 08:37:20 08:52:31 08:45:50 6
IM Lake Placid 2009-07-26 08:58:09 08:57:32 08:44:47 3
IM Australia 2009-04-05 09:02:22 09:05:07 08:42:39 11
IM Western Australia 2008-12-07 08:10:57 08:24:50 08:38:38 2
IM Wisconsin 2008-09-07 08:59:14 08:59:26 08:41:19 3
IM Western Australia 2007-12-01 08:35:43 08:52:06 08:37:18 12
IM Australia 2007-04-08 08:25:33 08:28:54 08:34:05 2
IM Western Australia 2006-12-03 08:03:55 08:10:35 08:35:14 1
IM Korea 2006-08-27 08:34:09 08:36:39 08:41:20 5
Challenge Roth 2006-06-24 08:30:55 08:43:06 08:42:43 8
IM Australia 2006-05-11 08:36:08 08:34:07 08:42:34 3
IM Hawaii 2005-10-15 08:57:06 08:56:34 08:47:47 36
Challenge Roth 2005-06-24 08:27:25 08:38:10 08:38:10 8

Results for Dan Brown (PHI)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Korea 2006-08-27 08:55:28 08:58:05 08:58:05 8

Results for Leon Griffin (AUS)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Western Australia 2011-12-04 09:03:49 09:12:41 09:02:40 12
IM Cozumel 2009-11-29 13:30:58 13:39:25 08:38:58 16
IM Western Australia 2008-12-07 08:24:41 08:38:58 08:38:58 6

Results for Chris Dmitrieff (AUS)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
Challenge Cairns 2011-06-05 09:17:03 09:25:35 09:17:52 8
IM Australia 2011-05-01 09:39:26 09:48:11 09:15:43 8
IM Western Australia 2009-12-05 09:05:29 09:21:30 09:03:37 11
IM Australia 2009-04-05 08:53:06 08:55:48 08:57:42 9
IM Western Australia 2008-12-07 08:28:29 08:42:52 08:58:25 8
IM Australia 2007-04-08 09:17:13 09:20:55 09:06:31 12
IM Hawaii 2006-10-21 09:15:29 09:11:24 08:59:40 50
IM Florida 2005-11-05 08:41:40 08:43:49 08:51:18 4
IM Australia 2005-04-08 09:00:09 09:00:09 09:00:09 10

Results for Scott Defilippis (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
Challenge Wanaka 2012-01-21 09:16:00 09:11:00 09:23:52 7
IM Florida 2011-11-05 08:27:13 08:47:36 09:26:27 8
IM France 2011-06-26 09:26:26 09:30:34 09:35:34 13
IM St. George 2011-05-07 09:58:05 09:58:18 09:36:55 15
IM Florida 2010-11-06 08:43:35 09:00:05 09:29:29 12
IM St. George 2010-05-01 09:53:07 09:47:19 09:42:09 17
IM Florida 2009-11-07 09:31:53 09:49:22 09:39:06 17
IM Louisville 2009-08-28 09:25:00 09:28:15 09:28:15 16

Results for Michelle Mitchell (AUS)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Western Australia 2011-12-04 09:28:07 09:37:22 09:42:16 2
Challenge Cairns 2011-06-05 09:30:41 09:39:26 09:45:12 2
IM New Zealand 2011-03-05 09:50:04 09:51:23 09:51:23 7
IM Wisconsin 2005-09-11 15:16:08 14:51:39 14:51:39 16

Results for Kat Baker (AUS)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Canada 2009-08-30 10:05:19 10:09:58 10:02:42 7
IM Western Australia 2008-12-07 09:37:24 09:53:44 09:53:44 3

Results for Nicole Ward (AUS)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
Challenge Wanaka 2012-01-21 10:12:39 10:07:08 10:04:55 6
IM Australia 2011-05-01 09:49:23 09:58:17 10:04:22 3
IM Coeur d’Alene 2010-06-27 09:56:48 10:02:57 10:05:56 6
IM New Zealand 2010-03-06 09:51:05 09:57:50 10:06:42 6
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 10:20:46 10:15:07 10:09:23 32
IM New Zealand 2009-03-07 09:56:04 10:04:58 10:07:16 7
IM Western Australia 2008-12-07 09:43:12 09:59:42 10:08:19 5
IM Western Australia 2007-12-01 09:44:35 10:03:09 10:14:37 9
IM Australia 2007-04-08 10:24:18 10:28:26 10:28:26 12

Results for Hillary Biscay (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Western Australia 2011-12-04 09:39:41 09:49:08 10:14:39 5
IM Louisville 2011-08-28 10:09:32 10:20:52 10:16:17 8
IM Korea 2011-07-03 10:12:20 10:20:03 10:16:00 3
IM Brasil 2011-05-29 09:33:14 09:55:24 10:15:44 4
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 10:47:51 10:49:09 10:17:05 39
IM Wisconsin 2010-09-12 10:29:06 10:31:35 10:15:12 7
IM Louisville 2010-08-29 10:52:37 10:56:05 10:14:12 9
IM Coeur d’Alene 2010-06-27 10:39:44 10:46:20 10:11:31 11
IM Brasil 2010-05-30 09:44:38 10:03:03 10:09:15 4
IM Lanzarote 2010-05-22 10:41:44 10:39:15 10:09:40 9
IM Wisconsin 2009-09-13 10:02:58 10:00:52 10:04:47 3
IM Lake Placid 2009-07-26 10:47:50 10:47:05 10:05:03 12
IM Lanzarote 2009-05-23 10:28:45 10:25:21 10:02:14 5
Challenge Wanaka 2009-01-01 10:16:39 10:23:17 10:00:39 2
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 10:35:10 10:32:32 09:59:11 35
IM Wisconsin 2008-09-07 09:47:25 09:47:38 09:57:02 1
IM Louisville 2008-08-27 09:59:33 09:55:57 09:57:40 4
IM Lake Placid 2008-07-20 09:58:45 09:57:26 09:57:47 3
Challenge Roth 2008-07-13 09:24:19 09:46:53 09:57:48 6
IM Brasil 2008-05-25 09:56:10 10:06:36 09:58:41 1
IM Arizona 2008-04-13 09:53:21 09:57:02 09:58:01 8
Challenge Wanaka 2008-01-19 10:11:17 10:15:04 09:58:06 2
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 09:56:46 09:56:23 09:56:36 20
IM Wisconsin 2007-09-09 10:01:30 10:00:22 09:56:37 2
IM UK 2007-08-19 09:49:50 09:56:09 09:56:15 2
IM Austria 2007-07-08 09:39:23 09:51:18 09:56:16 6
IM Brasil 2007-05-27 09:44:14 09:56:33 09:56:49 6
IM Arizona 2007-04-15 11:33:07 11:36:58 10:07:26 10
IM New Zealand 2007-03-03 09:34:53 09:39:20 09:56:51 4
Challenge Wanaka 2007-01-20 09:58:35 10:01:02 09:59:07 3
IM Florida 2006-11-04 09:40:39 09:48:47 09:58:50 3
IM Wisconsin 2006-09-10 10:07:01 09:52:55 10:00:24 2
IM Austria 2006-07-16 09:30:37 09:42:47 10:01:42 4
IM Coeur d’Alene 2006-06-25 09:59:46 10:00:14 10:05:29 5
IM Arizona 2006-04-09 09:43:36 09:44:41 10:06:47 3
IM Brasil 2006-01-01 09:34:19 09:41:10 10:13:25 3
IM Canada 2005-08-29 10:36:56 10:34:27 10:25:50 11
IM Lake Placid 2005-07-24 10:31:33 10:26:19 10:21:13 10
IM Arizona 2005-04-09 10:15:40 10:15:40 10:15:40 7

IM South Africa 2012 – Analyzing Results

Race Conditions

This year’s IM South Africa was very slow. The adjustment was calculated at –5:49, so it was about 18 minutes slower than the 2011 race. I’m not sure what factors contributed to this, I have not heard horror stories of strong winds or too long swim courses, but the times were pretty slow even starting with the swim. (Please note that the adjustment is not influenced by the strength of the field, only by comparing expected and actual finishing times by each athlete.)

Male Results

Some of the pre race favorites didn’t start (Cunama) or made clear that they were just racing for fun (Tissink). The remaining favorite, Andi Böcherer, led after the bike, but dropped out at the 18k mark of the run, and Clemente Alonso won his first Ironman:

Rank Name Nation Actual Time Expected Time
1 Clemente Alonso-McKernan ESP 08:34:45 08:51:24
2 Cyril Viennot FRA 08:41:48 08:48:58
3 Mike Aigroz SWI 08:46:04 08:51:31
4 Markus Fachbach GER 08:57:21 08:51:43
5 Trevor Delsaut FRA 09:03:03 09:09:30
6 Petr Vabrousek CZE 09:09:57 09:02:56
7 Craig Twigg GBR 09:10:48 09:58:24
8 Sylvain Rota FRA 09:11:24 n/a
9 Kent Horner ZAF 09:14:39 09:24:02
10 Guilherme Manocchio BRA 09:20:56 08:49:15
11 Andrey Lyatskiy RUS 09:25:43 09:13:07
12 Michael Wetzel GER 09:26:33 09:21:59
13 Raynard Tissink ZAF 09:31:42 08:39:14
14 Ivan Albano BRA 09:40:30 09:26:11
15 Georg Swoboda AUT 09:42:51 08:56:35

As usual, a TOP 3 finish required to race faster than your predicted time and deliver a good performance – not much of a chance anymore to just show up, go through the motions and finish on the podium.

Female Results

On the women’s side, Natascha Badmann had a bad swim but a great bike and run and managed to overtake her countrywomen Simone Braendli for her fourth win in South Africa:

Rank Name Nation Actual Time Expected Time
1 Natascha Badmann SWI 09:47:10 09:39:30
2 Simone Braendli SWI 09:52:26 10:19:01
3 Diana Riesler GER 10:01:14 09:46:31
4 Dianne Mcewan ZAF 10:07:55 n/a
5 Susan Dietrich GER 10:08:02 09:47:28
6 Virginia Berasategui ESP 10:13:00 09:44:23
7 Emi Sakai JPN 10:28:03 n/a
8 Anne Basso FRA 10:33:12 10:32:12
9 Nina Pekerman ISR 10:34:24 n/a
10 Jacqui Gordon USA 10:41:13 10:17:28
11 Claire Horner ZAF 10:50:53 10:46:25
12 Kathrin Walther GER 11:30:13 n/a
13 Caroline Koll ZAF 11:56:21 10:52:04

Congratulations to Natscha – even with her having the best pre-race rating, I didn’t think she had another IM win in her. By winning, she became the oldest female winner of an Ironman at 45 years, 4 months and 16 days. Previously, Fernanda Keller had that record with her win in IM Brazil 2008 at the age of 44 years, 7 months and 21 days. I wish I was that fast!

IM South Africa 2012 – Predictions (Main Post)

As always, you can find additional information on the participants in the detail post.

Previous Results

With a course rating of 7:03, South Africa is one of the medium quick courses, comparable to IM France or IM Arizona. However, the adjustment has seen quite a lot of movement, so conditions on race day are going to have an influence on how quick the race is going to be. Last years winners were Raynard Tissink in 8:05:36 (in front of Andi Böcherer and James Cunnama) and Chrissie Wellington in a super-quick 8:33:56 (followed by Rachel Joyce and Diana Riesler).

Male Participants

The top three from last year are back:

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Raynard Tissink ZAF 08:27:00 08:33:42 20
2 Andi Boecherer GER 08:34:49 08:41:38 37
3 Cyril Viennot FRA 08:36:30 08:43:20 45
4 Guilherme Manocchio BRA 08:36:47 08:43:37 46
5 Clemente Alonso-McKernan ESP 08:38:53 08:45:45 58
6 Mike Aigroz SWI 08:39:00 08:45:52 59
7 Markus Fachbach GER 08:39:11 08:46:03 61
8 James Cunnama ZAF 08:40:30 08:47:23 71
9 Georg Swoboda AUT 08:43:56 08:50:52 91
10 Petr Vabrousek CZE 08:50:08 08:57:09 119
11 Alejandro Santamaria ESP 08:51:38 08:58:40 127
12 Jonathan Hotchkiss GBR 08:52:57 09:00:00 135
13 Trevor Delsaut FRA 08:56:33 09:03:39 156
14 Joseph Spindler GER 08:57:52 09:04:59 161
15 Andrey Lyatskiy RUS 09:00:05 09:07:14 178
16 Bruno Clerbout BEL 09:03:50 09:11:02 205
17 Michael Wetzel GER 09:08:45 09:16:00 234
18 Kent Horner ZAF 09:10:45 09:18:02 260
19 Ivan Albano BRA 09:12:50 09:20:09 282
20 Craig Twigg GBR 09:44:18 09:52:02 507
21 Freddy Lampret ZAF 10:17:50 10:26:00 708

These three athletes also top the odds:

  • Raynard Tissink: 39%
  • Andi Boecherer: 35%
  • James Cunnama: 11%
  • Mike Aigroz: 8%

Statistically, in addition to Tissink, Böcherer and Cunname only last year’s Hawaii TOP 10 athlete Mike Aigroz has a realistic chance of winning – all the other well rated athletes do not have enough results under their belt. However, any of these athlete may be able to surprise if they manage to race as well as they did last time – the ratings are close enough to promise an exciting race!

Update: Apparently, Ray Tissink has entered the race, but is not really aiming for a top finish. (He tweeted “let’s make it 100% clear, I’m not racing [for a fast time]. Going to have fun and experience what everybody else in the event does.”) Apparently, he is taking some time off Ironman, but is “not retired yet. Taking some time to get my head straight after a disappointing year. Will be back at IMSA next year.”

Update: Not only is Raynard Tissink out of contention, but James Cunnama has withdrawn and will not start. With these two changes, the odds change to

  • Andi Böcherer 51%
  • Markus Fachbach 14%
  • Mike Aigroz 14% 
  • Guilherme Manocchio 10%

Female Participants

While the men’s race looks quite close, the field on the women’s side is not as deep:

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Natascha Badmann SWI 09:25:51 09:33:20 22
2 Virginia Berasategui ESP 09:30:37 09:38:10 35
3 Diana Riesler GER 09:32:42 09:40:16 40
4 Susan Dietrich GER 09:33:38 09:41:13 42
5 Jacqui Gordon USA 10:02:56 10:10:54 126
6 Anne Basso FRA 10:17:18 10:25:28 176
7 Claire Horner ZAF 10:31:11 10:39:32 206
8 Caroline Koll ZAF 10:36:43 10:45:08 216
9 Jodie Swallow GBR n/a unrated n/a

Natascha Badmann still has the best rating of the field, but if she won it would be quite a surprise. Here’s a look at the odds for the race:

  • Virginia Berasategui: 41%
  • Natascha Badmann: 27%
  • Diana Riesler: 22%
  • Susan Dietrich: 6.%
  • Jacqui Gordon: 4%

Jodie Swallow is still on the start list, but she’s got a stress fracture in her foot and will not be able to start. (On her blog, she said that she has “to postpone Ironman South Africa victory until next year”.) My best wishes for a quick recovery!

IM South Africa 2012 – Predictions (Detail Post)

Male Race Participants

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Raynard Tissink ZAF 08:27:00 08:33:42 20
2 Andi Boecherer GER 08:34:49 08:41:38 37
3 Cyril Viennot FRA 08:36:30 08:43:20 45
4 Guilherme Manocchio BRA 08:36:47 08:43:37 46
5 Clemente Alonso-McKernan ESP 08:38:53 08:45:45 58
6 Mike Aigroz SWI 08:39:00 08:45:52 59
7 Markus Fachbach GER 08:39:11 08:46:03 61
8 James Cunnama ZAF 08:40:30 08:47:23 71
9 Georg Swoboda AUT 08:43:56 08:50:52 91
10 Petr Vabrousek CZE 08:50:08 08:57:09 119
11 Alejandro Santamaria ESP 08:51:38 08:58:40 127
12 Jonathan Hotchkiss GBR 08:52:57 09:00:00 135
13 Trevor Delsaut FRA 08:56:33 09:03:39 156
14 Joseph Spindler GER 08:57:52 09:04:59 161
15 Andrey Lyatskiy RUS 09:00:05 09:07:14 178
16 Bruno Clerbout BEL 09:03:50 09:11:02 205
17 Michael Wetzel GER 09:08:45 09:16:00 234
18 Kent Horner ZAF 09:10:45 09:18:02 260
19 Ivan Albano BRA 09:12:50 09:20:09 282
20 Craig Twigg GBR 09:44:18 09:52:02 507
21 Freddy Lampret ZAF 10:17:50 10:26:00 708

Female Race Participants

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Natascha Badmann SWI 09:25:51 09:33:20 22
2 Virginia Berasategui ESP 09:30:37 09:38:10 35
3 Diana Riesler GER 09:32:42 09:40:16 40
4 Susan Dietrich GER 09:33:38 09:41:13 42
5 Jacqui Gordon USA 10:02:56 10:10:54 126
6 Anne Basso FRA 10:17:18 10:25:28 176
7 Claire Horner ZAF 10:31:11 10:39:32 206
8 Caroline Koll ZAF 10:36:43 10:45:08 216
9 Jodie Swallow n/a unrated n/a

Results for Raynard Tissink (ZAF)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Hawaii 2011-10-15 08:22:15 08:23:45 08:33:42 7
IM South Africa 2011-04-10 08:05:36 08:16:25 08:35:12 1
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 08:20:11 08:21:11 08:37:59 5
IM South Africa 2010-04-25 08:23:28 08:30:52 08:40:29 1
IM Florida 2009-11-07 08:40:21 08:56:15 08:41:55 8
IM Wisconsin 2009-09-13 08:45:19 08:43:29 08:39:46 1
IM Louisville 2009-08-28 08:39:09 08:42:08 08:39:08 3
Challenge Roth 2009-07-12 08:07:18 08:26:54 08:38:32 7
Challenge Roth 2008-07-13 08:55:59 09:17:25 08:41:18 19
IM South Africa 2008-04-13 08:23:09 08:32:26 08:33:28 2
IM Western Australia 2007-12-01 08:09:19 08:24:52 08:33:44 2
IM Korea 2007-08-26 09:08:10 08:53:34 08:36:20 1
IM South Africa 2007-03-18 08:36:07 08:35:12 08:29:53 2
IM South Africa 2006-03-18 08:37:37 08:39:16 08:27:15 2
IM Hawaii 2005-10-15 08:25:52 08:25:22 08:20:11 7
IM Austria 2005-07-03 08:14:34 08:14:34 08:14:34 1

Results for Andi Boecherer (GER)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Hawaii 2011-10-15 08:23:19 08:24:49 08:41:38 8
IM South Africa 2011-04-10 08:08:36 08:19:29 08:46:24 2
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 09:24:34 09:25:42 08:55:05 51
IM Regensburg 2010-08-01 08:18:28 08:25:47 08:43:12 2
IM Canada 2009-08-30 08:53:37 08:57:43 08:53:20 6
IM Germany 2008-07-06 08:13:33 08:32:34 08:49:48 7
IM Lanzarote 2007-05-20 09:15:54 09:13:39 09:13:39 5

Results for Cyril Viennot (FRA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Hawaii 2011-10-15 08:37:00 08:38:32 08:43:20 15
IM Switzerland 2011-07-10 08:36:02 08:49:41 08:46:01 4
IM South Africa 2011-04-10 08:30:42 08:42:04 08:42:04 5

Results for Guilherme Manocchio (BRA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Brasil 2011-05-29 08:15:30 08:34:39 08:43:37 2
IM Brasil 2010-05-30 08:39:11 08:55:33 08:55:33 7

Results for Clemente Alonso-McKernan (ESP)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Switzerland 2011-07-10 08:27:56 08:41:22 08:45:45 2
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 08:48:53 08:44:04 08:49:31 17
IM France 2009-06-28 08:48:59 08:55:26 08:55:26 4

Results for Mike Aigroz (SWI)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Hawaii 2011-10-15 08:21:07 08:22:36 08:45:52 6
IM Switzerland 2011-07-10 08:38:21 08:52:04 08:51:42 5
IM St. George 2011-05-07 08:42:06 08:42:17 08:51:35 5
IM Switzerland 2010-07-25 08:34:24 08:44:55 08:55:19 3
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 09:18:34 09:13:29 09:00:14 44
IM Canada 2009-08-30 08:40:17 08:44:17 08:52:13 2
IM France 2008-06-22 08:56:43 09:03:24 09:03:24 6

Results for Markus Fachbach (GER)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Regensburg 2011-08-07 08:29:16 08:40:47 08:46:03 1
IM Florida 2010-11-06 08:25:25 08:41:20 08:47:36 4
IM Austria 2010-07-04 08:20:43 08:36:50 08:49:33 4
IM Wisconsin 2008-09-07 09:01:56 09:02:08 08:54:33 5
IM Germany 2008-07-06 08:19:29 08:38:44 08:52:15 8
IM Florida 2007-11-03 09:16:24 09:32:52 08:57:45 33
IM Hawaii 2006-10-21 08:45:06 08:41:15 08:40:02 24
Challenge Roth 2006-06-24 08:23:46 08:35:47 08:39:18 5
IM Florida 2005-11-05 08:41:22 08:43:31 08:43:31 3

Results for James Cunnama (ZAF)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM South Africa 2011-04-10 08:13:18 08:24:17 08:47:23 3
IM Florida 2010-11-06 08:15:59 08:31:36 08:52:50 1
Challenge Roth 2010-07-18 08:18:47 08:36:04 08:58:26 6
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 09:25:05 09:19:57 09:05:34 51
IM Austria 2009-07-05 08:14:18 08:29:32 09:00:38 2
IM South Africa 2009-04-05 08:55:24 09:06:54 09:15:06 6
IM South Africa 2008-04-13 08:52:17 09:02:06 09:21:22 10
IM South Africa 2007-03-18 09:48:38 09:47:35 09:47:35 13

Results for Georg Swoboda (AUT)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Florida 2008-11-01 08:31:57 08:49:55 08:50:52 8
IM Austria 2006-07-16 08:41:32 08:52:39 08:51:56 14
IM Austria 2005-07-03 08:50:57 08:50:57 08:50:57 16

Results for Petr Vabrousek (CZE)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Melbourne 2012-03-24 08:29:25 08:37:52 08:57:09 13
Challenge Wanaka 2012-01-21 09:15:21 09:10:21 08:58:02 6
IM Western Australia 2011-12-04 08:35:08 08:43:32 08:57:28 6
IM Hawaii 2011-10-15 09:13:42 09:15:21 08:58:07 30
IM Texas 2011-05-21 08:37:59 08:43:31 08:57:19 9
IM St. George 2011-05-07 09:11:11 09:11:23 08:57:55 9
IM South Africa 2011-04-10 08:40:36 08:52:11 08:57:18 8
IM New Zealand 2011-03-05 08:58:30 08:59:42 08:57:32 6
Challenge Wanaka 2011-01-15 09:27:44 09:29:33 08:57:26 5
IM Cozumel 2010-11-28 08:39:52 08:50:03 08:55:56 8
IM Florida 2010-11-06 08:29:59 08:46:03 08:56:13 7
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 08:56:26 08:57:30 08:56:42 41
IM Canada 2010-08-29 08:39:16 08:46:52 08:56:40 4
IM Lake Placid 2010-07-25 08:46:33 08:50:57 08:57:10 2
IM Brasil 2010-05-30 08:36:15 08:52:31 08:57:29 6
IM St. George 2010-05-01 09:09:43 09:04:20 08:57:45 6
Challenge Wanaka 2010-01-16 09:00:08 09:00:39 08:57:24 4
IM Western Australia 2009-12-05 08:57:08 09:12:54 08:57:14 10
IM Arizona 2009-11-22 08:37:45 08:47:03 08:56:23 10
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 09:23:03 09:17:56 08:56:55 48
IM Wisconsin 2009-09-13 09:08:26 09:06:31 08:55:43 7
IM Lake Placid 2009-07-26 09:10:24 09:09:46 08:55:04 6
Challenge Roth 2009-07-12 08:15:03 08:34:58 08:54:11 10
IM Brasil 2009-05-31 08:37:18 08:50:06 08:55:24 3
IM South Africa 2009-04-05 08:36:07 08:47:12 08:55:45 3
Challenge Wanaka 2009-01-01 08:44:38 08:50:16 08:56:19 2
IM Arizona 2008-11-23 08:28:09 08:34:47 08:56:43 8
IM Florida 2008-11-01 08:23:00 08:40:39 08:58:14 3
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 09:04:42 09:02:27 08:59:30 31
IM Lake Placid 2008-07-20 08:55:20 08:54:10 08:59:16 2
IM Switzerland 2008-07-13 08:53:05 09:05:30 08:59:40 6
IM Brasil 2008-05-25 08:53:58 09:03:18 08:59:11 4
IM Australia 2008-04-06 09:11:11 09:14:01 08:58:50 11
Challenge Wanaka 2008-01-19 09:09:36 09:13:00 08:57:26 6
IM Western Australia 2007-12-01 08:27:15 08:43:22 08:55:58 10
IM Florida 2007-11-03 08:53:05 09:08:51 08:57:13 21
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 09:42:26 09:42:03 08:55:58 56
IM Louisville 2007-08-26 10:58:00 10:59:48 08:50:29 22
IM Germany 2007-07-01 08:22:31 08:36:25 08:50:29 5
IM Brasil 2007-05-27 08:40:42 08:51:41 08:52:13 6
IM Arizona 2007-04-15 08:41:59 08:44:53 08:52:18 4
IM South Africa 2007-03-18 08:48:19 08:47:23 08:53:25 4
IM Hawaii 2006-10-21 09:10:45 09:06:42 08:54:28 47
IM Lake Placid 2006-07-23 09:03:12 08:55:50 08:52:14 7
IM Arizona 2006-04-09 08:44:54 08:45:52 08:51:29 8
IM South Africa 2006-03-18 08:38:52 08:40:31 08:52:48 3
IM Western Australia 2005-11-27 08:36:05 08:38:20 08:56:27 5
IM Hawaii 2005-10-15 09:12:17 09:11:44 09:33:57 50
IM Wisconsin 2005-09-11 11:19:03 11:00:54 09:42:05 23
IM Brasil 2005-05-28 09:06:45 09:06:45 08:58:25 6
IM Arizona 2005-04-09 08:49:46 08:49:46 08:49:46 4

Results for Alejandro Santamaria (ESP)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Melbourne 2012-03-24 08:41:15 08:49:54 08:58:40 17
IM Cozumel 2011-11-27 08:32:50 08:45:41 09:00:57 3
IM France 2011-06-26 09:07:39 09:11:39 09:05:42 8
IM St. George 2011-05-07 09:04:38 09:04:50 09:03:26 7
IM Cozumel 2009-11-29 08:57:04 09:02:40 09:02:37 3
IM Korea 2007-08-26 09:50:52 09:35:08 09:02:35 6
IM Western Australia 2006-12-03 08:41:50 08:49:02 08:47:02 6
IM UK 2006-08-16 08:54:42 08:56:49 08:45:47 4
IM Austria 2005-07-03 08:30:33 08:30:33 08:30:33 6

Results for Jonathan Hotchkiss (GBR)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
Challenge Cairns 2011-06-05 08:42:49 08:50:50 09:00:00 7
IM Western Australia 2010-12-05 08:31:02 08:42:38 09:06:20 6
IM Switzerland 2009-07-12 09:28:09 09:41:47 09:41:47 18

Results for Trevor Delsaut (FRA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Cozumel 2011-11-27 08:44:03 08:57:11 09:03:39 6
IM France 2011-06-26 08:54:59 08:58:54 09:05:19 6
IM South Africa 2011-04-10 08:41:57 08:53:34 09:07:12 9
IM Cozumel 2010-11-28 08:32:24 08:42:26 09:12:27 5
IM Austria 2010-07-04 08:33:27 08:49:59 09:28:18 7
IM Switzerland 2008-07-13 09:27:44 09:40:57 10:02:24 19
IM France 2008-06-22 10:16:31 10:24:12 10:24:12 20

Results for Joseph Spindler (GER)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Lanzarote 2009-05-23 09:13:17 09:10:17 09:04:59 9
IM Switzerland 2008-07-13 08:54:44 09:07:11 09:03:18 8
Challenge Wanaka 2008-01-19 08:47:49 08:51:05 09:02:01 1
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 09:12:19 09:11:57 09:06:25 36
IM Switzerland 2007-06-24 08:51:59 09:04:45 09:03:07 6
IM Florida 2006-11-04 08:53:42 09:01:10 09:01:10 9

Results for Andrey Lyatskiy (RUS)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Cozumel 2011-11-27 08:43:05 08:56:11 09:07:14 5
IM Germany 2011-07-24 09:07:09 09:19:26 09:19:26 20

Results for Bruno Clerbout (BEL)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Cozumel 2011-11-27 08:47:07 09:00:19 09:11:02 8
IM Wales 2011-09-11 09:07:59 08:59:01 09:13:08 3
IM St. George 2011-05-07 09:37:12 09:37:24 09:16:20 14
IM Arizona 2010-11-21 09:13:33 09:25:52 09:10:55 22
IM France 2010-06-27 08:53:15 09:06:32 09:06:34 4
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 08:55:11 08:50:19 09:06:35 24
IM France 2009-06-28 08:58:02 09:04:35 09:13:04 6
IM France 2008-06-22 09:22:52 09:29:53 09:17:58 11
IM France 2007-06-24 08:46:30 08:53:44 09:08:54 4
IM France 2006-06-24 09:20:48 09:29:08 09:29:08 9

Results for Michael Wetzel (GER)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Cozumel 2011-11-27 09:07:02 09:20:44 09:16:00 15
IM Germany 2011-07-24 08:58:40 09:10:46 09:10:46 17

Results for Kent Horner (ZAF)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM South Africa 2011-04-10 08:58:39 09:10:38 09:18:02 12
IM South Africa 2010-04-25 09:19:32 09:27:46 09:27:46 11

Results for Ivan Albano (BRA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Arizona 2011-11-19 09:01:14 09:14:46 09:20:09 30
IM Louisville 2011-08-28 09:21:39 09:32:06 09:21:06 5
IM Brasil 2011-05-29 08:48:57 09:09:24 09:18:54 7
IM Brasil 2010-05-30 08:54:05 09:10:55 09:21:04 9
IM Cozumel 2009-11-29 09:23:59 09:29:51 09:23:10 9
IM Brasil 2009-05-31 09:04:38 09:18:06 09:21:43 10
IM Louisville 2008-08-27 10:31:50 10:28:02 09:22:33 17
IM Brasil 2008-05-25 08:58:55 09:08:21 09:07:28 7
IM Florida 2007-11-03 08:50:46 09:06:28 09:07:14 18
IM Louisville 2007-08-26 09:11:09 09:12:40 09:07:28 9
IM Hawaii 2006-10-21 09:15:57 09:11:52 09:05:23 52
IM Brasil 2006-01-01 08:45:00 08:51:16 09:02:25 8
IM Wisconsin 2005-09-11 09:27:56 09:12:46 09:08:46 7
IM Brasil 2005-05-28 09:04:25 09:04:25 09:04:25 5

Results for Craig Twigg (GBR)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM South Africa 2011-04-10 09:10:01 09:22:16 09:52:02 16
IM UK 2010-08-01 10:21:02 10:28:21 10:28:21 9

Results for Freddy Lampret (ZAF)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM South Africa 2011-04-10 10:46:11 11:00:34 10:26:00 23
IM South Africa 2008-04-13 14:05:39 14:21:15 09:46:04 23
IM France 2007-06-24 09:37:48 09:45:44 09:46:04 18
IM South Africa 2007-03-18 09:56:29 09:55:25 09:46:17 16
IM Brasil 2006-01-01 09:26:35 09:33:21 09:33:21 17

Results for Natascha Badmann (SWI)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Hawaii 2011-10-15 09:31:21 09:33:03 09:33:20 14
IM Lanzarote 2011-05-21 09:43:39 09:38:29 09:33:30 2
IM South Africa 2007-03-18 09:22:01 09:21:01 09:28:30 1
IM Hawaii 2006-10-21 09:38:52 09:34:37 09:31:44 10
IM South Africa 2006-03-18 09:46:38 09:48:30 09:29:55 1
IM Hawaii 2005-10-15 09:09:30 09:08:57 09:08:57 1

Results for Virginia Berasategui (ESP)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Hawaii 2011-10-15 09:19:52 09:21:32 09:38:10 10
IM Germany 2011-07-24 09:37:00 09:49:57 09:42:42 10
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 09:16:47 09:17:54 09:40:12 4
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 09:15:28 09:10:25 09:48:36 3
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 09:29:15 09:26:54 10:03:36 6
IM Lanzarote 2008-05-24 10:22:36 10:19:35 10:18:59 5
IM France 2007-06-24 10:07:24 10:15:44 10:18:37 4
IM Hawaii 2005-10-15 10:31:59 10:31:21 10:21:05 37
IM Lanzarote 2005-06-04 10:09:40 10:09:40 10:09:40 1

Results for Diana Riesler (GER)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM UK 2011-07-31 09:25:41 09:37:13 09:40:16 2
IM Austria 2011-07-03 08:53:34 09:20:52 09:41:03 3
IM South Africa 2011-04-10 09:20:37 09:33:06 09:47:54 3
IM Germany 2010-07-04 09:27:37 09:40:52 09:54:48 4
IM Australia 2010-03-28 09:57:04 10:06:03 10:03:06 4
IM Austria 2009-07-05 09:41:33 09:59:28 09:59:28 7

Results for Susan Dietrich (GER)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Arizona 2011-11-19 09:19:47 09:33:47 09:41:13 9
IM Germany 2011-07-24 09:28:08 09:40:53 09:45:55 8
IM Germany 2010-07-04 09:39:12 09:52:43 09:52:43 7

Results for Jacqui Gordon (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Lake Placid 2011-07-24 10:07:22 10:09:38 10:10:54 5
IM Texas 2011-05-21 09:27:20 09:33:24 10:11:08 8
IM Florida 2010-11-06 10:09:42 10:28:54 10:19:06 9
IM Lake Placid 2009-07-26 10:08:19 10:07:37 10:16:56 6
IM South Africa 2009-04-05 09:46:26 09:59:02 10:18:37 4
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 10:20:49 10:18:15 10:22:29 26
IM Louisville 2008-08-27 10:26:03 10:22:17 10:23:21 7
IM Lake Placid 2008-07-20 10:31:53 10:30:30 10:23:37 6
IM Arizona 2008-04-13 10:32:32 10:36:27 10:21:25 14
IM Florida 2007-11-03 09:51:46 10:09:16 10:15:04 15
IM Canada 2007-08-26 10:29:13 10:29:41 10:18:30 14
IM Hawaii 2006-10-21 10:08:41 10:04:13 10:04:13 26

Results for Anne Basso (FRA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Cozumel 2011-11-27 10:18:53 10:34:23 10:25:28 10
IM Florida 2010-11-06 09:37:37 09:55:49 10:19:07 7
IM France 2010-06-27 10:29:18 10:44:58 10:44:58 9

Results for Claire Horner (ZAF)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM South Africa 2011-04-10 10:11:55 10:25:32 10:39:32 11
IM South Africa 2010-04-25 10:48:27 10:57:59 10:57:59 13

Results for Caroline Koll (ZAF)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM South Africa 2011-04-10 10:37:39 10:51:51 10:45:08 13
IM South Africa 2010-04-25 10:24:25 10:33:36 10:43:05 11
IM Cozumel 2009-11-29 12:35:24 12:43:16 10:45:57 12
IM France 2009-06-28 10:44:45 10:52:36 10:45:57 13
IM South Africa 2009-04-05 10:08:35 10:21:39 10:43:52 5
IM South Africa 2008-04-13 10:05:58 10:17:09 10:53:05 6
IM Korea 2007-08-26 12:31:09 12:11:09 11:09:28 6
IM South Africa 2007-03-18 10:49:22 10:48:13 10:31:39 10
IM Korea 2006-08-27 10:09:15 10:12:13 10:12:13 3

Results for Jodie Swallow ( )

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

IM Melbourne 2012 – Analyzing Results

Race Conditions

This was the first time that IM Melbourne was held. It was a really exciting race with very strong fields and fast times. The course itself was pretty quick (course rating of 8:58 – similar to Arizona and Cozumel), but not crazy quick such as Austria or Roth (almost 17 and 19 minutes). This makes the really fast times by Crowie and Caroline Steffen that much more impressive! It also goes to show that good, deep fields keep the athletes “honest” and help in pushing everyone to their limits.

Male Results

On the men’s side, Crowie battled Cam on the run and managed to pull off his first sub 8:

Rank Name Nation Actual Time Expected Time
1 Craig Alexander AUS 07:57:44 08:09:14
2 Cameron Brown NZL 08:00:12 08:23:31
3 Frederik Van Lierde BEL 08:01:26 08:32:31
4 Eneko Llanos ESP 08:02:23 08:14:11
5 David Dellow AUS 08:04:19 08:40:51
6 Paul Matthews USA 08:05:58 n/a
7 Luke Bell AUS 08:10:38 08:41:54
8 Joe Gambles AUS 08:12:46 08:32:53
9 Marko Albert EST 08:18:04 08:26:34
10 Bart Aernouts BEL 08:18:17 n/a
11 Joshua Rix AUS 08:22:17 08:59:47
12 Romain Guillaume FRA 08:25:51 09:16:06
13 Petr Vabrousek CZE 08:29:25 08:49:06
14 Jens Petersen-Bach DNK 08:30:10 n/a
15 Todd Israel AUS 08:33:31 n/a
16 Esben Hovgaard DNK 08:38:51 08:40:03
17 Alejandro Santamaria ESP 08:41:15 08:51:58
18 Mitchell Anderson AUS 08:46:39 08:36:05
19 Lothar Leder GER 08:51:34 08:54:10
20 Sergio Marques PRT 08:54:14 08:57:03
21 Jason Shortis AUS 08:57:33 08:46:45
22 Matt White AUS 08:58:10 08:44:16
23 Joel Jameson GBR 08:59:28 08:55:27
24 Jens Grønbek DEN 09:00:36 n/a
25 Shinya Suganuma JPN 09:02:50 09:14:19
26 Greg Bennett USA 09:04:01 n/a
27 Fredrik Croneborg SWE 09:04:44 n/a
28 Justin Granger AUS 09:05:13 09:08:04
29 Finnbar Crennan AUS 09:14:44 n/a
30 Hiroyuki Nishiuchi JPN 09:18:01 09:17:18
31 Gudmund Snilstveit NOR 09:19:39 08:53:13
32 Johan Borg AUS 09:21:53 n/a
33 Simon Billeau FRA 09:25:22 08:44:33
34 Courtney Ogden AUS 10:23:45 08:39:08

Crowie’s performance in Melbourne was on the same level as his course-record win in Hawaii 2011. Cam Brown’s second place was his best performance by a long shot, both in absolute and adjusted times (his 8:00 is an adjusted 8:08, his best adjusted performances from the past were in the low 8:20s). It’s hard to pick out just a few performances .. there are just too many great results!

Female Results

On the women’s side, we saw another fantastic winning time by Caroline Steffen:

Rank Name Nation Actual Time Expected Time
1 Caroline Steffen SWI 08:34:51 09:19:50
2 Rachel Joyce GBR 08:46:09 09:20:07
3 Mirinda Carfrae AUS 09:04:00 09:00:59
4 Joanna Lawn NZL 09:06:53 09:27:01
5 Gina Crawford NZL 09:11:16 09:28:13
6 Rebekah Keat AUS 09:13:43 09:18:55
7 Jessica Jacobs USA 09:13:57 09:35:54
8 Carrie Lester AUS 09:18:25 09:33:45
9 Michelle Vesterby DNK 09:19:05 09:15:47
10 Belinda Granger AUS 09:26:21 09:34:21
11 Mareen Hufe GER 09:42:47 n/a
12 Katja Rabe GER 09:44:02 09:51:20
13 Suzanne Blackborrow AUS 09:50:40 10:31:29
14 Kate Murphy AUS 09:59:11 n/a
15 Dana Wagner GER 10:03:52 n/a
16 Fernanda Keller BRA 10:26:28 10:27:31
17 Conny Dauben GER 10:54:21 10:39:56
18 Marthe Eikre-Telle NOR 11:43:01 n/a

She had the fastest bike split ever by a female (4:35:29) and even if her run is not quite in Rinnie territory, she pulled off a finishing time that seemed to be reserved for Chrissie. Rachel Joyce had a great race as well and continues to improve. Rinnie’s third place might have been a disappointment for her Australian compatriots, but was actually quite a lot better than last year in New Zealand (even accounting for time lost with a flat) – I expect her to be on fire for Kona. Similar to Cam Brown on the men’s side, Jo Lawn delivered one of her career best performances in Melbourne. What a shame for these two that their home race had to be shortened!

I’d like to highlight one more athlete: Michelle Vesterby. She came into Melbourne virtually unknown and with just one IM result to her credit. Her performance in Melbourne is on the same level as her time from Arizona, and she seems to be a solid TOP 10 contender now. A ninth place in such a stellar field is nothing to sneeze at!

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