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Ironman South Africa 2016 – Analyzing Results

Race Conditions

After a typically slow swim the new bike course proved to be much quicker than the old one. It remains to be seen if this was because most of the harder hills were cut from the course or because conditions were favorable this year – reportedly there wasn’t much wind. Even with the fast conditions we didn’t see any new course records – even if Ben Hoffman would probably have been able to find 3 seconds somewhere to break Gerrit Schellens run course record from 2007!

Male Race Results

After leading out of the swim, Marko Albert was at the front for the bike as well, even if he had some company with Bas Diederen and Ben Collins. Bas was the first into T2, but he struggled on the run, and Marko was leading the race until 15k. He then dropped back into fourth place, but rallied in the final stretch to pass Matt Trautmann and claimed the third spot on the podium. The quickest runners were Ben Hoffmann and Tim Van Berkel who had reached T2 just three minute behind the leaders, and Ben proved to be the stronger of the two. With 2:45:50 he posted the fastest marathon of the day, missing the run course record by only two seconds! Tim finished in second place.

Ben received an Automatic Qualifier slot for Kona, and both Tim and Matt should have enough points for Kona, as do fifth and sixth place finishers Boris Stein and Ruedi Wild (who had the best relative performance of the day, more than an hour quicker than expected!). Marko will still need a few more points to qualify for Kona.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to exp. Prize Money
1 Ben Hoffman USA 00:52:58 04:29:36 02:45:50 08:12:37 -19:39 US$ 30000
2 Tim Van Berkel AUS 00:50:00 04:32:33 02:48:15 08:14:51 -15:28 US$ 15000
3 Marko Albert EST 00:49:37 04:30:53 02:54:19 08:18:52 -14:58 US$ 8000
4 Matt Trautman ZAF 00:54:18 04:31:28 02:49:39 08:19:25 -02:22 US$ 6500
5 Boris Stein GER 00:54:24 04:28:17 02:52:52 08:19:51 -07:34 US$ 5000
6 Ruedi Wild SUI 00:52:56 04:38:12 02:49:28 08:24:47 -1:07:53 US$ 3500
7 Alessandro Degasperi ITA 00:54:32 04:39:03 02:50:58 08:29:37 05:02 US$ 2500
8 Christian Kramer GER 00:49:59 04:33:13 03:01:47 08:29:57 -05:24 US$ 2000
9 Ronnie Schildknecht SUI 00:55:10 04:34:36 02:58:24 08:32:11 10:46 US$ 1500
10 Jens Petersen-Bach DEN 00:54:25 04:42:07 02:53:01 08:34:03 00:39 US$ 1000
11 Kyle Buckingham ZAF 00:51:20 04:31:39 03:07:20 08:34:48 00:01
12 Jan Van Berkel SUI 00:54:20 04:36:46 03:03:05 08:38:31 -06:02
13 Markus Thomschke GER 00:57:12 04:36:21 03:00:32 08:38:52 -10:38
14 Ivan Risti ITA 00:52:19 04:41:16 03:07:23 08:45:36 -16:15
15 Ben Collins USA 00:49:51 04:41:55 03:08:39 08:46:24 06:57
16 Mike Aigroz SUI 00:52:12 04:41:27 03:11:09 08:48:52 08:40
17 David Plese SLO 00:55:05 04:38:35 03:15:07 08:53:38 18:38
18 Tomas Mika CZE 00:57:53 04:51:52 03:00:17 08:55:47 -04:12
19 Frederic Limousin FRA 00:55:01 04:52:33 03:14:46 09:08:07 -17:52
20 Mark Oude Bennink NED 00:49:51 05:16:55 03:00:02 09:12:31 26:44
21 Olivier Godart LUX 01:00:26 04:53:56 03:19:53 09:19:02 21:34
22 Michael Davidson ZAF 01:01:34 04:51:55 03:24:14 09:22:57 30:54
23 Nick Baldwin SEY 00:54:27 04:34:49 03:50:23 09:24:28 36:13
24 Bas Diederen NED 00:49:47 04:29:42 04:06:33 09:30:33 1:11:20
25 Eric Watson AUS 00:49:38 05:21:11 03:17:28 09:34:46 -07:41
26 Felipe De Oliveira Manente BRA 00:57:16 04:50:45 03:46:27 09:39:51 28:26
27 Thomas De Schutter BEL 01:02:20 05:04:07 03:35:54 09:47:19 n/a
28 Gerhard De Bruin ZAF 01:00:14 04:55:17 03:49:26 09:51:18 12:35
29 Simon Brierley SEY 01:02:24 05:15:59 04:17:23 10:41:54 06:28
James Cunnama ZAF 00:51:55 04:35:43 DNF
Oliver Simon GBR 00:52:53 04:50:26 DNF
Darby Thomas FIN 01:02:23 04:43:23 DNF
Greg Close USA 01:00:18 04:49:26 DNF
Freddy Lampret ZAF 00:54:38 04:57:32 DNF
Andrej Vistica CRO 01:01:23 04:55:00 DNF
Frederic Garcia FRA 00:57:49 05:07:24 DNF
Marek Nemcik SVK 01:23:32 DNF

Female Race Results

As expected Jodie Swallow was the fastest swimmer and in the lead on the bike. But at about 110k into the ride she fell hard without being clear what caused the crash. She was able to continue on the bike but had hurt her elbow and was loosing time to Annabel Luxford who was leading in T2 by 6 minutes over Jodie. Jodie started the run but had to call it a day after 8k. (I’m wishing her a speedy recovery and look forward to see her again at the front of her next race!) Bella had the fastest bike split by more than six minutes, but she posted after the race that she might have ridden a bit too hard. After Jodie withdrew Bella had a gap of more than 12 minutes to the speedy runners behind her, but that was only good enough for 20k. Kaisa Lehtonen proved that her second place at IM Barcelona was just the start and claimed her first Ironman title with the fastest run split. The second and third from last year took repeated this year but traded places: Susie Cheetham again had the better run and claimed second place, but Lucy Gossage’s third place only four weeks after her second place at IM New Zealand is an amazing result. Asa Lundstroem in fourth place had a solid race all day, she also passed Bella who ended up in fifth place.

As a Regional Champion Kaisa receives an Automatic Qualifier slot. After their great results in Kona and in Port Elizabeth Susie, Lucy, Asa and Annabel have enough points to be safe for a July slot.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to exp. Prize Money
1 Kaisa Lehtonen FIN 00:58:21 04:59:41 03:02:34 09:06:50 -11:46 US$ 30000
2 Susie Cheetham GBR 00:58:21 05:04:26 03:02:43 09:09:49 -02:39 US$ 15000
3 Lucy Gossage GBR 01:03:20 04:56:10 03:07:36 09:11:43 -01:23 US$ 8000
4 Asa Lundstroem SWE 01:03:30 04:58:18 03:08:33 09:15:34 -12:35 US$ 6500
5 Annabel Luxford AUS 00:56:07 04:49:17 03:37:50 09:28:32 11:16 US$ 5000
6 Verena Walter GER 01:03:24 05:08:18 03:18:02 09:35:36 -21:36 US$ 3500
7 Bianca Steurer AUT 01:02:53 05:09:13 03:22:31 09:39:25 -04:45 US$ 2500
8 Annah Watkinson ZAF 01:03:20 05:17:58 03:17:42 09:44:11 n/a US$ 2000
9 Katharina Grohmann GER 01:16:21 05:09:59 03:18:51 09:50:27 -04:59 US$ 1500
10 Dede Griesbauer USA 00:58:16 05:13:11 03:43:14 10:01:19 15:26 US$ 1000
11 Rahel Bellinga NED 01:09:44 05:06:54 03:38:34 10:02:08 -25:25
12 Annett Finger GER 01:04:34 05:21:11 03:41:51 10:13:08 19:37
13 Darbi Roberts USA 00:58:23 05:30:14 03:51:38 10:27:36 58:05
Jodie Swallow GBR 00:52:11 05:00:00 DNF
Lina-Kristin Schink GER 01:14:23 05:24:30 DNF
Claire Horner ZAF 01:03:25 DNF

Analyzing Consistency of Athletes

Update (April 16th): Since originally posting I have added an age-weighted component to the numbers, so that newer results have a larger influence than older ones. As you can see from the changes in the numbers, this adds another interesting dimension to the numbers in this post.

I love getting feedback on my analysis and predictions – very often, they trigger some new, interesting way of looking at the data. For example, Linsey Corbin made the following remark to me:

I wish there was a way that your predictions could show consistency. One thing I pride myself on is being fairly consistent across the board.

Thanks for the suggestion, Linsey (and great to see you back to racing)! I have been looking at different ways of attacking this question, here is what I was able to come up with. I will continue to monitor these numbers for upcoming races, maybe and I’ll include them in future predictions.

Deviation

In statistics, there are a number of way to measure how “consistent” a set of data is. The most common way to express variability in data sets is the “Standard Deviation“. StdDev basically measures the distance of data points from the average value – the more “outliers” there are and the further off they are, the higher the standard deviation.

This was my first try of analyzing consistency. The data analysis part is pretty simple, as the function is built into all kinds of programs. However, the results were not very helpful: In essence it helped identify athletes that had one or more sub-standard results, e.g because of walking large parts of the marathon in a race. For example, Lucy Gossage showed up as an inconsistent athlete with a large deviation, but that was almost exclusively a result of her marathon walk resulting in an 11:32 finish in Kona 2014. It also didn’t value “good” results: The difference of a good result to an average – maybe 30 minutes or so – is much smaller than that of a bad result – walking easily adds an hour to the overall time.

Identifying Non-standard Results and Quantifying Consistency

Even when looking at the deviation of results of each athlete did not lead to a good measure, it formed the basis for another way of looking at the data. In the familiar “bell shape” curve of the normal distribution, 68% of results fall within one standard deviation around the average. When looking at the difference between an athlete’s “expected time” and their actual finishing time, roughly 68% of the results are within 20 minutes of the expected time. Based on this I classify results within 20 minutes of the expected finishing time as “normal”, and any result quicker as “better” results and anything slower and DNFs as “sub-par” results.

I can then aggregate all the results of an athlete into a figure like this:

Linsey Corbin: 83% +17% -0% (18)

Older results have less of a meaning than newer, so adding in an aging component gives the following numbers:

Linsey Corbin: 79% +21% -0% (18)

Each part has the following meaning:

  • Linsey Corbin: Name of the athlete
  • 79%: Fraction of normal race results
  • +21%: Fraction of “better than expected” race results
  • -0%: Fraction of “sub-par” race results (including DNFs)
    (Note: Technically, Linsey has at least one DNF in her Ironman races – she didn’t finish IM Texas in 2011. This is a limitation in my data – I have only been including DNF’s since 2014.)
  • (18): Total number of Ironman-distance results (including DNFs)
Average numbers are about 68% of normal results and roughly 15-20% each of better and sub-par results, but these numbers vary wildly between athletes.

Examples

Here are some more numbers from well known athletes – put into different groups. (As I have updated my algorithm a bit since posting for the first time, I am also including the originally posted numbers in [square brackets].)

Stable Athletes

  • Andy Potts: 100% +0% -0% (13) [originally posted: 100% +0% -0% (13)]
  • Yvonne Van Vlerken: 84% +0% -16% (23) [originally posted: 91% +0% -9% (23)]
  • Lucy Gossage: 92% +0% -8% (12) [originally posted: 91% +0% -9% (11)]
  • Sebastian Kienle: 85% +12% -3% (11) [originally posted: 82% +9% -9% (11)]
These are athletes where predictions are a very good indicator of how they’ll perform on race day – they usually perform on a very similar level from race to race.

Normal Stability

  • Jodie Swallow: 55% +0% -45% (10) [originally posted: 78% +0% -22% (9) – she has since DNF’d in South Africa]
  • Caroline Steffen: 92% +8% -0% (20) [originally posted: 75% +25% -0% (20)]
  • Meredith Kessler: 65% +14% -20% (23) [originally posted: 70% +17% -13% (23)]
  • Andreas Raelert: 48% +0% -52% (19) [originally posted: 63% +0% -37% (19)]
  • Luke McKenzie: 51% +30% -19% (26) [originally posted: 62% +23% -15% (26)]
For these athletes predictions give a good indication, but it is also interesting whether there is a higher potential for an “up-side”, better-than-expected result (larger percentage of faster results, e.g. Carolin Steffen) or for a “down-side” result (larger percentage of sub-par results, e.g. Jodie Swallow or Andreas Raelert). For other athletes, the day could go either way (e.g. Meredith Kessler or Luke McKenzie).

Lower Stability

  • Sarah Piampiano: 41% +47% -12% (14) [originally posted: 50% +43% -7% (14)]
  • Luke Bell: 23% +5% -72% (26) [originally posted: 38% +12% -50% (26)]
  • Dede Griesbauer: 41% +18% -40% (26) [originally posted: 32% +32% -36% (25)]
  • Tim O’Donnell: 14% +63% -23% (11) [originally posted: 27% +45% -27% (11)]
  • Pete Jacobs: 5% +16% -79% (26) [originally posted: 15% +42% -42% (26)]

Then there are athletes that have a lower fraction of “normal” results. Here it’s also interesting to look at the upside (e.g. Sarah Piampiano, Tim O’Donnell) or downside potential (e.g. Luke Bell). Some athletes’ results are very hard to predict from previous numbers – for example Dede Griesbauer and Pete Jacobs have had a good fraction of great results but also slower, disappointing results.

Ironman South Africa 2016 (April 10th) – Predictions

IMSALogoUpdate April 4th: Victor Del Corral, Andreas Niedrig and Corinne Abraham won’t be starting.

Update April 6th: Daniela Sämmler has announced she has been sick and won’t start. Stephen Bayliss is reported by Tri247 to focus on IM Lanzarote. Diana Riesler will be racing IM Lanzarote and a start in Port Elizabeth seems very unlikely.

Update April 7th: Another German, Katja Konschak, has reportedly had an accident and won’t be racing.

Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2006 Gerrit Schellens (BEL) 08:36:06 Natascha Badmann (SUI) 09:46:38
2007 Gerrit Schellens (BEL) 08:33:05 Natascha Badmann (SUI) 09:22:01
2008 Stephen Bayliss (GBR) 08:18:23 Bella Bayliss (GBR) 09:27:48
2009 Marino Vanhoenacker (BEL) 08:17:32 Lucie Reed (CZE) 09:16:32
2010 Raynard Tissink (ZAF) 08:23:28 Sonja Tajsich (GER) 09:16:55
2011 Raynard Tissink (ZAF) 08:05:36 Chrissie Wellington (GBR) 08:33:56
2012 Clemente Alonso McKernan (ESP) 08:34:45 Natascha Badmann (SUI) 09:47:10
2013 Ronnie Schildknecht (SUI) 08:11:24 Jessie Donavan (USA) 09:10:58
2014 Nils Frommhold (GER) 08:26:07 Simone Braendli (SUI) 09:31:54
2015 Frederik Van Lierde (BEL) 08:16:35 Jodie Swallow (GBR) 09:26:56

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Frederik Van Lierde BEL 00:49:20 04:32:45 02:49:45 08:16:35
2 Ivan Rana ESP 00:49:28 04:48:22 02:48:44 08:30:45
3 Bart Aernouts BEL 00:52:07 04:44:30 02:55:04 08:35:59

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Jodie Swallow GBR 00:50:17 05:20:58 03:10:56 09:26:56
2 Lucy Gossage GBR 00:59:35 05:20:12 03:06:04 09:31:20
3 Susie Cheetham GBR 00:57:52 05:25:54 03:03:38 09:33:02

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:05:36 Raynard Tissink 2011-04-10
Swim overall 00:45:22 Anton Storm 2009-04-05
Bike overall 04:19:41 Raynard Tissink 2011-04-10
Run overall 02:45:48 Gerrit Schellens 2007-03-18
Total female 08:33:56 Chrissie Wellington 2011-04-10
Swim female 00:47:40 Lucie Reed 2009-04-05
Bike female 04:45:23 Chrissie Wellington 2011-04-10
Run female 02:52:54 Chrissie Wellington 2011-04-10

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM South Africa is 01:04.

The course has changed a bit this year – the bike course stays closer to the coast which might make it windier but also a lot less hilly than in previous years. Race conditions in South Africa depend a lot on the weather conditions, but the course changes could lead to fast times this year.

Race Adjustments for IM South Africa

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Finishers Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2006 -01:26 -05:28 -04:11 -00:35 28 -01:26 -05:28 -04:11 -00:35
2007 -04:39 -09:34 01:28 -01:26 33 -03:02 -07:31 -01:21 -01:01
2008 17:34 00:30 08:46 02:17 36 03:50 -04:51 02:01 00:05
2009 15:12 01:24 08:39 -02:45 28 06:40 -03:17 03:41 -00:37
2010 07:58 -00:52 07:52 01:19 34 06:56 -02:48 04:31 -00:14
2011 12:20 -00:23 13:11 02:18 36 07:50 -02:24 05:58 00:11
2012 -12:35 -09:02 -09:35 02:23 28 04:55 -03:21 03:44 00:30
2013 06:23 -01:48 09:45 02:52 36 of 44 05:06 -03:09 04:29 00:48
2014 -15:12 -01:35 -12:29 -01:16 29 of 40 02:51 -02:59 02:36 00:34
2015 -14:53 -01:24 -11:40 00:29 49 of 61 01:04 -02:49 01:11 00:34

KPR points and Prize Money

IM South Africa is a P-4000 race. It has a total prize purse of 150.000 US$ and automatic Kona slots for the male and female winners.

Male Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Overall
1 8 Bas Diederen NED 08:20:56 08:29:00 00:49:45 04:32:33 02:53:37 18
2 2 Ronnie Schildknecht SUI 08:20:59 08:30:44 00:53:51 04:31:45 02:50:23 20
3 4 Matt Trautman ZAF 08:24:36 08:36:07 00:52:16 04:34:48 02:52:32 35
4 19 James Cunnama ZAF 08:29:27 08:34:11 00:51:36 04:36:46 02:56:05 32
5 14 Kyle Buckingham ZAF 08:30:30 08:39:04 00:50:56 04:33:55 03:00:38 49
6 7 Tim Van Berkel AUS 08:31:23 08:38:02 00:51:29 04:40:50 02:54:04 45
7 3 Boris Stein GER 08:32:28 08:31:35 00:57:26 04:36:06 02:53:56 23
8 22 Alessandro Degasperi ITA 08:32:28 08:39:03 00:54:31 04:43:26 02:49:31 48
9 5 Victor Del Corral ESP 08:34:40 08:35:18 00:57:56 04:40:58 02:50:46 34
10 27 Christian Kramer GER 08:35:34 08:39:36 00:50:18 04:39:14 03:01:03 53
11 6 Ben Hoffman USA 08:35:46 08:36:22 00:51:10 04:36:14 03:03:22 38
12 45 Andrej Vistica CRO 08:38:31 08:45:57 00:54:42 04:38:02 03:00:47 71
13 9 Mike Aigroz SUI 08:38:38 08:44:36 00:50:20 04:41:39 03:01:39 63
14 44 Jan Van Berkel SUI 08:39:41 08:48:52 00:50:21 04:37:23 03:06:57 79
15 38 David Plese SLO 08:40:03 08:39:27 00:54:53 04:42:21 02:57:49 52
16 10 Marko Albert EST 08:40:18 08:37:59 00:49:25 04:42:49 03:03:04 44
17 37 Jens Petersen-Bach DEN 08:41:42 08:42:51 00:53:09 04:47:34 02:56:00 58
18 42 Darby Thomas FIN 08:43:50 08:51:14 01:01:15 04:41:33 02:56:02 87
19 35 Mark Oude Bennink NED 08:44:23 08:55:41 00:50:41 04:44:47 03:03:54 110
20 12 Stephen Bayliss GBR 08:45:23 08:51:07 00:49:59 04:46:07 03:04:18 86
21 17 Ben Collins USA 08:48:01 08:59:42 00:53:21 04:44:01 03:05:40 (124)
22 43 Markus Thomschke GER 08:51:06 08:59:10 00:55:40 04:38:09 03:12:17 119
23 11 Nick Baldwin SEY 08:54:28 09:09:06 00:55:19 04:48:20 03:05:48 165
24 34 Andreas Niedrig GER 08:55:19 09:04:45 00:50:05 04:38:23 03:21:51 145
25 20 Michael Davidson ZAF 08:55:51 09:02:06 00:58:03 04:53:31 02:59:16 (132)
26 28 Freddy Lampret ZAF 09:01:57 09:31:35 00:54:31 04:47:26 03:15:00 255
27 26 Olivier Godart LUX 09:06:27 09:18:33 00:57:28 04:59:51 03:04:09 (210)
28 32 Tomas Mika CZE 09:06:42 09:09:53 00:57:39 05:02:44 03:01:19 170
29 29 Cedric Lassonde FRA 09:09:10 09:11:20 00:58:27 04:51:57 03:13:47 175
30 39 Ivan Risti ITA 09:10:14 09:17:13 00:51:34 05:00:15 03:13:25 201
31 16 Greg Close USA 09:10:22 09:16:50 01:01:16 04:57:45 03:06:21 197
32 31 Felipe De Oliveira Manente BRA 09:15:16 09:27:26 00:55:46 05:03:42 03:10:48 235
33 41 Oliver Simon GBR 09:21:50 09:27:36 00:51:26 04:54:56 03:30:28 238
34 24 Lewis Elliot USA 09:23:07 09:43:46 00:56:51 04:52:46 03:28:30 (302)
35 30 Frederic Limousin FRA 09:32:23 09:42:01 00:56:49 05:06:08 03:24:26 (295)
36 15 Emanuele Ciotti ITA 09:33:18 09:43:24 00:54:49 05:06:52 03:26:37 (300)
37 21 Gerhard De Bruin ZAF 09:41:47 09:49:28 00:56:58 05:07:51 03:31:59 (322)
38 46 Eric Watson AUS 09:51:56 10:05:02 00:52:48 05:10:17 03:43:51 (369)
39 47 Ruedi Wild SUI 10:41:58 11:02:44 00:52:36 04:52:12 04:52:10 (472)
40 13 Simon Brierley SEY 10:45:41 10:53:40 01:02:41 05:28:36 04:09:24 (471)
41 33 Marek Nemcik SVK 11:41:45 12:09:08 01:15:30 05:47:18 04:33:56 477
23 Thomas De Schutter BEL n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
25 Frederic Garcia FRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Exp. Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Overall
1 48 Jodie Swallow GBR 09:12:33 09:19:52 00:50:43 05:02:18 03:14:32 (15)
2 49 Lucy Gossage GBR 09:15:16 09:17:42 01:00:39 05:02:07 03:07:30 10
3 50 Susie Cheetham GBR 09:18:09 09:17:03 00:57:56 05:11:53 03:03:20 7
4 64 Diana Riesler GER 09:20:16 09:26:27 00:59:51 04:58:48 03:16:36 22
5 52 Corinne Abraham GBR 09:20:21 09:21:15 01:01:50 05:04:50 03:08:41 16
6 69 Amanda Stevens USA 09:26:15 09:30:05 00:53:44 05:11:50 03:15:41 26
7 53 Annabel Luxford AUS 09:26:24 09:27:37 00:54:14 05:03:48 03:23:21 (24)
8 61 Kaisa Lehtonen FIN 09:27:39 09:40:13 00:56:21 05:14:11 03:12:07 (45)
9 62 Asa Lundstroem SWE 09:31:48 09:32:47 01:03:14 05:08:23 03:15:11 32
10 65 Darbi Roberts USA 09:36:32 09:46:19 00:55:03 05:16:27 03:20:02 (57)
11 66 Daniela Saemmler GER 09:37:24 09:40:07 00:58:09 05:12:25 03:21:50 44
12 57 Dede Griesbauer USA 09:42:52 09:56:48 00:55:12 05:11:49 03:30:51 81
13 68 Bianca Steurer AUT 09:47:55 09:54:52 00:59:49 05:25:59 03:17:08 74
14 60 Katja Konschak GER 09:49:53 09:59:46 00:55:18 05:29:08 03:20:26 88
15 58 Katharina Grohmann GER 09:58:41 10:06:21 01:13:58 05:21:31 03:18:12 98
16 56 Annett Finger GER 10:03:24 10:16:45 01:09:59 05:23:25 03:25:00 (121)
17 70 Verena Walter GER 10:04:05 10:08:01 01:02:35 05:22:57 03:33:33 103
18 55 Mariana Andrade BRA 10:06:06 10:23:09 01:03:44 05:19:22 03:38:00 142
19 67 Lina-Kristin Schink GER 10:09:05 10:13:20 01:14:19 05:24:31 03:25:15 116
20 54 Rahel Bellinga NED 10:35:42 10:38:53 01:06:29 05:20:06 04:04:07 170
21 59 Claire Horner ZAF 10:39:37 10:52:26 01:03:59 05:39:26 03:51:11 (177)
71 Annah Watkinson ZAF n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

After Jan Frodeno had to cancel his start in South Africa, the race is much more open. Based on previous results Ronnie Schildknecht and Bas Diederen are a step ahead of the rest, but there are 20 athletes that I expect to finish within 25 minutes so a lot can happen on race day. I’m sure that the South African athletes will be working extra hard for a podium spot (if not the very top spot), and it’ll be very interesting to follow Matt Trainman, James Cunnama and Kyle Buckingham on race day. Then there are a number of international athletes that could also do well:

  • Ronnie Schildknecht: 30% (2-1)
  • Bas Diederen: 25% (3-1)
  • Matt Trautman: 9% (10-1)
  • James Cunnama: 7% (13-1)
  • Jan Van Berkel: 5% (18-1)
  • Ben Hoffman: 5% (19-1)
  • Kyle Buckingham: 4% (23-1)
  • Tim Van Berkel: 4% (27-1)

Female Race Participants

Based on the performance she showed last year, Jodie Swallow is the front runner in the women’s race. She faces strong competition by her British compatriots Corinne Abraham (hopefully back to racing healthy), Lucy Gossage (hopefully recovered from racing IM New Zealand) and Susie Cheetham (probably not quite at 100% after breaking her arm at 70.3 South Africa in January).

  • Jodie Swallow: 40% (1-1)
  • Corinne Abraham: 20% (4-1)
  • Lucy Gossage: 19% (4-1)
  • Diana Riesler: 11% (8-1)
  • Susie Cheetham: 5% (20-1)
  • Amanda Stevens: 4% (23-1)

Ironman New Zealand 2016 – Analyzing Results

Race Conditions

The 2016 conditions were quite favorable for fast times, hardly any wind, cloudy on the bike and not too hot on the run – probably the best they have been in recent years (adjustment of 9:06, new course rating of 5:36). There have been some very fast times on the bike: The old women’s course record was 5:01 which was beaten by five athletes – Lucy Gossage now has the new record of 4:51:39. There has also been a new male bike course record of 4:22:31 by Dougal Allen, improving Bevan Docherty’s old record by more than twelve minutes! We’ve also seen a new run course record by Matt Hanson (2:41:20).

But it is interesting to note that while the winners had good bike times (still under the old records), they left enough in the tank for some great runs as well – Cam Brown running the second fastest 2:44 marathon and Meredith Kessler running a new run PR and run course record of 3:06:03. Getting the mix right allowed both of them to post new overall course records of 8:07:58 by Cam (improving Bevan’s  8:15 from 2013) and 8:56:08 by Meredith – the first sub-9 in Taupo, improving on last year’s 9:05.

Male Race Results

As usual Dylan McNeice was leading after the swim, but he struggled a bit after racing in Wanaka two weeks ago, eventually DNF’ing on the run. On the bike a large front group of more than ten athletes formed, only Cyril Viennot managed to build a bit of a lead into T2. Some slower swimmers were able to cut down the distance to the front group, so the race was wide open at the start of the run.

Callum Millward was pushing the pace early on, and only Cam Brown was able to stay with him. Cam was able to build a gap around the 30k mark but for a long time Callum stayed within a minute of Cam. Cam proved that he perfectly judged his effort, winning for the 12th time at IM New Zealand with a new course record – what a legend!

Second place went to Joe Skipper who had some gas left in the tank for the last 10k. After fighting for the win for most of the day, Callum Millward had to be content with third place. Fourth place went to the fastest runner of the day, Matt Hanson who posted a new run course record of 2:41:20 – faster than all the 2015 IM marathons! As usual Matt Russell also had a good run, allowing him to move from 11th place in T2 into 5th place.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected Prize Money
1 Cameron Brown NZL 00:48:37 04:29:13 02:44:54 08:07:58 -14:16 US$ 14000
2 Joe Skipper GBR 00:53:11 04:25:11 02:45:51 08:09:37 -18:31 US$ 7000
3 Callum Millward NZL 00:46:49 04:31:13 02:48:01 08:10:57 -11:14 US$ 4500
4 Matt Hanson USA 00:51:34 04:34:42 02:41:20 08:12:30 -22:28 US$ 3000
5 Matthew Russell USA 00:56:23 04:28:28 02:45:10 08:15:25 -23:31 US$ 2500
6 Terenzo Bozzone NZL 00:46:46 04:31:27 02:56:55 08:19:53 -06:25 US$ 2000
7 Dougal Allan NZL 00:56:26 04:22:13 03:00:43 08:24:27 02:33 US$ 1500
8 Cyril Viennot FRA 00:48:38 04:26:50 03:06:38 08:27:36 02:22 US$ 1250
9 Simon Cochrane NZL 00:48:32 04:32:28 03:02:08 08:28:13 -26:35 US$ 1000
10 Mark Bowstead NZL 00:46:36 04:31:30 03:06:15 08:29:38 n/a US$ 750
11 Guy Crawford NZL 00:46:43 04:31:22 03:20:08 08:43:28 -19:56
12 Antony Costes FRA 00:46:40 04:33:42 03:19:27 08:44:40 n/a
13 Tohara Kaito JPN 00:49:54 04:51:56 02:56:57 08:45:24 -15:55
14 Clayton Fettell AUS 00:46:40 04:40:26 03:16:11 08:48:15 22:02
15 Chris Sanson NZL 00:56:22 04:48:42 03:02:26 08:53:38 -04:32
16 Simon Billeau FRA 04:38:54 03:15:02 08:54:14 09:22
17 Darren Jenkins AUS 01:02:44 05:01:10 02:54:12 09:05:06 00:38
18 Young Hwan Oh KOR 00:59:18 04:56:46 03:07:20 09:09:43 -1:20:18
19 Sam Clark NZL 00:56:19 04:56:23 03:28:01 09:27:41 26:07
20 Brad Williams USA 00:53:12 04:47:47 03:45:38 09:32:59 03:37
21 Matt Randall NZL 00:57:51 05:00:03 03:45:18 09:49:37 09:31
Alex Reithmeier AUS 00:48:42 04:43:43 DNF
Dylan McNeice NZL 00:44:54 04:48:47 DNF
Michael Poole AUS 00:48:40 04:47:36 DNF
Paul Matthews AUS 00:46:41 04:50:42 DNF
Daniel garry Brown AUS 01:00:58 05:51:32 DNF
Swen Sundberg GER 00:53:09 DNF
David Naesvik SWE 00:53:45 DNF

Female Race Results

IM rookie Lauren Brandon had the fastest swim – her 46:00 moved her well into the leading male Pros. While she was quicker than the course record swim of Monica Byrn (nee Kaplan), Lauren wasn’t able to finish the race and couldn’t claim a new course record.

Meredith Kessler was second out of the water and quickly took the lead on the bike. The lead quickly extended to around 8 minutes but the fast bike riders Lucy Gossage and Laura Siddall worked to cut it down to about two minutes in T2. But MBK quickly showed that she wasn’t ready to relinquish her grip on the New Zealand title and posted the fastest run for a sub-9 finish and new course record – her fifth consecutive win at IM New Zealand. (Her first was the shortened 2012 race.)

Behind Meredith, Laura was the best runner at the start, but then her race from two week ago caught up with her and she eventually dropped to fourth place. Second place went to Lucy Gossage who had some issues early in the run but ended up two minutes ahead of Carrie Lester who had the second best run to claim third. Amanda Stevens had another solid race with a good run in fifth place.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected Prize Money
1 Meredith Kessler USA 00:47:49 04:56:40 03:06:03 08:56:08 -14:09 US$ 14000
2 Lucy Gossage GBR 00:55:45 04:51:39 03:12:10 09:05:08 -04:03 US$ 7000
3 Carrie Lester AUS 00:52:14 05:01:22 03:08:13 09:07:19 -14:52 US$ 4500
4 Laura Siddall GBR 00:55:38 04:53:11 03:14:53 09:09:08 -25:31 US$ 3000
5 Amanda Stevens USA 00:50:44 05:05:38 03:10:29 09:12:50 -09:08 US$ 2500
6 Michelle Bremer NZL 00:55:32 05:00:10 03:14:14 09:15:43 -16:32 US$ 2000
7 Mareen Hufe GER 00:59:26 04:55:28 03:15:52 09:16:53 -10:14 US$ 1500
8 Gina Crawford NZL 00:50:47 05:12:42 03:22:30 09:32:51 18:39 US$ 1250
9 Candice Hammond NZL 01:01:59 05:13:44 03:14:37 09:35:36 08:07 US$ 1000
10 Vanessa Murray NZL 00:52:17 05:16:43 03:24:08 09:39:16 n/a US$ 750
11 Melanie Burke NZL 00:59:29 05:15:47 03:27:35 09:49:12 09:37
12 Marina Jurjevic AUS 01:04:14 05:16:46 03:39:08 10:07:31 08:01
13 Tracy Morrison AUS 00:59:21 05:41:33 03:29:47 10:16:37 n/a
14 Kristy Hallett AUS 00:59:58 05:29:32 03:42:56 10:19:37 09:02
15 Larisa Cochrane NZL 00:55:48 05:19:08 04:28:49 10:50:16 n/a
16 Caroline Martineau CAN 01:02:04 06:06:17 04:48:59 12:10:49 1:05:58
Lauren Brandon USA 00:46:00 05:17:01 DNF
Lisa Marangon AUS 00:52:22 05:12:40 DNF
Kate Bevilaqua AUS 00:52:19 05:17:12 DNF
Keiko Tanaka JPN 00:52:16 05:41:36 DNF
Jocelyn Mccauley USA 00:55:46 DNF

Continental and National Fastest Times

After the fast times at the end of 2015 there has been some discussion about continental and national “records” over the Ironman-distance. Because of doubts about the accuracy of courses, comparing times from different courses is always a bit tricky, but here is an overview of the data I was able to compile.

Please let me know if I missed some older results that are better than the continental and national records in this list!

Continental Records

Female Athletes

Continent Athlete Nation Time Date Race
Africa McEwan, Dianne ZAF 09:37:45 14.04.13 IM South Africa
Asia/Pacific Shiono, Emi JPN 09:23:26 01.03.08 IM New Zealand
Australia Carfrae, Mirinda AUS 08:38:53 20.07.14 Challenge Roth
Europe Wellington, Chrissie GBR 08:18:13 10.07.11 Challenge Roth
North America Corbin, Linsey USA 08:42:42 29.06.14 IM Austria
South America Monticeli, Ariane BRA 08:59:08 31.05.15 IM Brasil

Male Athletes

Continent Athlete Nation Time Date Race
Africa Cunnama, James ZAF 07:59:59 08.07.12 Challenge Roth
Asia/Pacific Vernay, Patrick NCL 08:03:46 12.07.09 Challenge Roth
Australia McCormack, Chris AUS 07:54:23 24.06.07 Challenge Roth
Europe Raelert, Andreas GER 07:41:33 10.07.11 Challenge Roth
North America Starykowicz, Andrew USA 07:55:22 02.11.13 IM Florida
South America Amorelli, Igor BRA 07:59:36 31.05.15 IM Brasil

National Records

Sometimes, the nation of an athlete is not clear – often athletes are listed with their country of residence (e.g. foreign athletes staying in Boulder), and some athletes have dual citizenships. Please let me know if I have mis-attributed a fast result by an athlete to the wrong country!

Female Athletes

Nation Athlete Total Date Race
AUS Carfrae, Mirinda 08:38:53 20.07.14 Challenge Roth
AUT Wutti, Eva 08:37:36 18.08.13 IM Copenhagen
BEL Goos, Sofie 08:57:08 29.06.14 IM Austria
BRA Monticeli, Ariane 08:59:08 31.05.15 IM Brasil
CAN Naeth, Angela 08:54:55 28.09.14 IM Chattanooga
CZE Reed, Lucie 08:57:34 06.10.13 Challenge Barcelona
DEN Pedersen, Camilla 08:56:01 07.07.13 IM Germany
FIN Lehtonen, Kaisa 08:48:40 04.10.15 IM Barcelona
FRA Collonge, Jeanne 09:20:51 23.06.13 IM France
GBR Wellington, Chrissie 08:18:13 10.07.11 Challenge Roth
GER Wallenhorst, Sandra 08:47:26 13.07.08 IM Austria
HUN Csomor, Erika 08:47:05 13.07.08 Challenge Roth
IRL Mullan, Eimear 08:56:51 04.10.15 IM Barcelona
ITA Niederfriniger, Edith 08:59:45 13.07.08 IM Austria
NED Van Vlerken, Yvonne 08:43:07 02.11.13 IM Florida
NZL Martin, Britta 08:56:34 07.12.14 IM Western Australia
SUI Steffen, Caroline 08:34:51 24.03.12 IM Melbourne
SWE Lundstroem, Asa 09:02:49 22.03.15 IM Melbourne
UKR Kozulina, Tamara 09:06:42 13.07.08 IM Austria
USA Corbin, Linsey 08:42:42 29.06.14 IM Austria
ZAF McEwan, Dianne 09:37:45 14.04.13 IM South Africa

Male Athletes

Nation Athlete Finish Date Race
AUS McCormack, Chris 07:54:23 24.06.07 Challenge Roth
AUT Weiss, Michael 07:57:39 03.07.11 IM Austria
BEL Vanhoenacker, Marino 07:45:58 03.07.11 IM Austria
BMU Butterfield, Tyler 08:05:22 31.05.15 IM Brasil
BRA Amorelli, Igor 07:59:36 31.05.15 IM Brasil
CAN McMahon, Brent 07:55:48 16.11.14 IM Arizona
CZE Ospaly, Filip 07:58:44 02.11.13 IM Florida
DEN Henning, Rasmus 07:52:36 18.07.10 Challenge Roth
ESP Rana, Ivan 07:48:43 29.06.14 IM Austria
EST Albert, Marko 08:08:17 03.07.11 IM Austria
FRA Chevrot, Denis 08:05:58 07.12.14 IM Western Australia
GBR Amey, Paul 08:01:29 19.11.11 IM Arizona
GER Raelert, Andreas 07:41:33 10.07.11 Challenge Roth
LUX Bockel, Dirk 07:52:01 14.07.13 Challenge Roth
NCL Vernay, Patrick 08:03:46 12.07.09 Challenge Roth
NED Van der Marel, Jan 07:57:46 04.09.1999 Almere Triathlon
NED Diederen, Bas 08:05:36 05.07.15 IM Germany
NZL Brown, Cameron 08:00:12 24.03.12 IM Melbourne
POR Marques, Sergio 08:05:21 06.10.13 Challenge Barcelona
SLO Plese, David 08:02:20 04.10.15 IM Barcelona
SUI Schildknecht, Ronnie 07:59:42 05.11.11 IM Florida
SWE Nilsson, Patrik 08:08:05 15.08.15 IM Sweden
USA Starykowicz, Andrew 07:55:22 02.11.13 IM Florida
ZAF Cunnama, James 07:59:59 08.07.12 Challenge Roth

Notes

There are a few records that need some explanations.

Female African & South African Record

I have listed Dianne McEwan (now Dianne Emery who became a mom in January) as the African record holder, but she herself considers Annah Watkinson’s 9:31 from IM Austria 2015 as the record. Annah has been racing as an age-grouper then, and because of the different race dynamics from the Pro race I’m not counting her result. But Annah has turned Pro this season, so there’s a good chance we will see a new African record this year, maybe as early as IM South Africa!

Male Canadian Record

Lionel Sanders sent me the following tweet after I posted the fastest times:

SandersTweet

Lionel is right that Peter finished in 7:51:56 in 1999. However, it is accepted that the marathon in Klagenfurt was short (Peter ran a 2:35:21!) – probably by more than 1k. With Peter being a great athlete and fast runner, one could speculate if he could have finished faster than Brent’s 7:55:48, but I’ve decided to not accept his time as a record.

Male Dutch Record

Jefry Visier, the Operational Director of Challenge Almere, was going through older Almere results and found four times (three by Jan Van der Marel and one by Frank Heldoorn) that were quicker than the one I had from Bas Diederen.

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