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Ironman Arizona 2015 (Nov 15th) – Predictions

IMAZLogoUpdate November 11th: The following athletes have been deleted the latest start list from Ironman:

  • Peter Kotland
  • Heather Jackson, Dede Griesgrauer, Danielle Mack

Pedro Gomes has announced on Twitter and his blog that he won’t start.

Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2005 Faris Al-Sultan (GER) 08:25:42 Kate Major (AUS) 09:44:02
2006 Michael Lovato (USA) 08:20:56 Michellie Jones (AUS) 09:12:53
2007 Rutger Beke (BEL) 08:21:14 Heather Gollnick (USA) 09:36:40
2008 Jozsef Major (HUN) 08:34:19 Erika Csomor (HUN) 09:14:49
2008 Andreas Raelert (GER) 08:14:16 Heleen Bij De Vaate (NED) 09:21:06
2009 Jordan Rapp (USA) 08:13:35 Samantha McGlone (CAN) 09:09:19
2010 Timo Bracht (GER) 08:07:16 Chrissie Wellington (GBR) 08:36:13
2011 Eneko Llanos (ESP) 07:59:38 Leanda Cave (GBR) 08:49:00
2012 Nils Frommhold (GER) 08:03:13 Linsey Corbin (USA) 09:01:41
2013 Victor Del Corral (ESP) 08:02:00 Julia Gajer (GER) 08:52:49
2014 Brent McMahon (CAN) 07:55:48 Meredith Kessler (USA) 08:50:41

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Brent McMahon CAN 00:47:25 04:21:24 02:43:29 07:55:48
2 Clemente Alonso McKernan ESP 00:48:05 04:20:44 02:47:30 08:00:42
3 Jordan Rapp USA 00:51:13 04:14:03 02:54:08 08:03:14

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Meredith Kessler USA 00:50:22 04:48:06 03:07:56 08:50:41
2 Lisa Huetthaler AUT 00:59:05 04:50:17 03:05:48 08:58:46
3 Heather Jackson USA 00:58:57 04:47:07 03:18:51 09:08:57

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 07:55:48 Brent McMahon 2014-11-16
Swim overall 00:46:02 Kieran Doe 2008-11-23
Bike overall 04:14:03 Jordan Rapp 2014-11-16
Run overall 02:43:29 Brent McMahon 2014-11-16
Total female 08:36:13 Chrissie Wellington 2010-11-21
Swim female 00:48:13 Leanda Cave 2008-11-23
Bike female 04:42:57 Michelle Vesterby 2013-11-17
Run female 02:52:56 Chrissie Wellington 2010-11-21

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Arizona is 11:37.

Race Adjustments for IM Arizona

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Athletes Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2006 05:53 -00:36 04:34 -00:24 29 05:53 -00:36 04:34 -00:24
2007 02:55 -00:35 01:13 01:35 26 04:24 -00:36 02:53 00:36
2008 04:58 00:04 04:21 -00:50 38 04:35 -00:22 03:22 00:07
2008 10:53 01:10 09:07 01:59 51 06:10 00:01 04:49 00:35
2009 17:44 -01:00 12:12 02:35 37 08:28 -00:12 06:17 00:59
2010 13:23 -00:23 09:06 01:47 46 09:18 -00:13 06:45 01:07
2011 15:03 -00:56 15:27 02:14 55 10:07 -00:20 08:00 01:17
2012 14:16 -01:58 16:28 02:33 50 10:38 -00:32 09:04 01:26
2013 22:15 -00:21 19:57 03:47 58 11:56 -00:31 10:16 01:42
2014 08:52 -01:09 08:37 02:33 40 11:37 -00:35 10:06 01:47

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Arizona is a P-2000 race. It has a total prize purse of 100.000 US$.

Male Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Overall
1 1 Brent McMahon CAN 08:01:10 08:13:51 00:47:17 04:20:50 02:48:03 2
2 2 Jordan Rapp USA 08:10:21 08:27:40 00:51:34 04:18:20 02:55:27 15
3 3 Maik Twelsiek GER 08:19:33 08:38:30 00:50:41 04:18:44 03:05:07 42
4 31 Marc Duelsen GER 08:20:44 08:45:39 00:53:13 04:25:56 02:56:35 71
5 4 TJ Tollakson USA 08:21:18 08:37:50 00:49:15 04:24:57 03:02:07 39
6 9 Andrew Starykowicz USA 08:25:10 08:39:54 00:48:13 04:17:42 03:14:15 47
7 13 Pedro Gomes POR 08:26:28 08:41:25 00:51:02 04:34:28 02:55:58 56
8 11 Lionel Sanders CAN 08:26:36 08:35:29 00:56:42 04:28:08 02:56:46 32
9 7 Marko Albert EST 08:27:48 08:35:42 00:47:32 04:34:52 03:00:24 33
10 54 Jonathan Shearon USA 08:27:53 09:00:42 00:53:01 04:28:33 03:01:20 134
11 8 David Plese SLO 08:30:29 08:39:16 00:53:10 04:35:31 02:56:48 46
12 5 Matthew Russell USA 08:33:28 08:50:06 00:58:29 04:32:40 02:57:19 86
13 35 Miguel Fidalgo Rossell ESP 08:35:39 08:57:30 00:49:04 04:47:12 02:54:23 (118)
14 36 Thomas Gerlach USA 08:36:44 08:55:43 00:53:57 04:30:58 03:06:50 114
15 14 Sergio Marques POR 08:37:51 08:54:42 00:55:05 04:44:37 02:53:09 112
16 22 Christian Brader GER 08:39:48 08:54:12 00:57:05 04:40:41 02:57:02 107
17 6 Jozsef Major HUN 08:39:49 08:53:17 00:57:32 04:30:53 03:06:25 101
18 60 Dirk Wijnalda NED 08:41:50 09:01:28 00:57:46 04:42:11 02:56:53 137
19 41 Matic Modic SLO 08:42:02 09:04:49 00:55:00 04:39:54 03:02:08 155
20 56 Joe Umphenour USA 08:42:29 08:58:11 00:47:43 04:39:23 03:10:24 120
21 15 Mike Schifferle SUI 08:44:14 09:01:06 01:00:15 04:37:12 03:01:47 135
22 43 David Naesvik SWE 08:47:27 09:03:12 00:55:56 04:36:07 03:10:24 146
23 39 Daniel Herlbauer AUT 08:48:41 09:11:57 00:54:01 04:40:57 03:08:43 (186)
24 16 Christopher Bagg USA 08:49:12 09:20:27 00:54:06 04:40:47 03:09:18 222
25 18 Marcel Bischof GER 08:55:06 09:17:08 00:57:05 04:45:08 03:07:53 208
26 26 James Chesson USA 08:58:19 09:17:25 00:58:09 04:47:57 03:07:13 210
27 17 Blake Becker USA 08:58:37 09:40:02 00:53:09 04:45:56 03:14:32 300
28 21 Raymond Botelho USA 09:00:09 09:29:29 00:54:11 04:35:58 03:24:59 253
29 58 Jesse Vondracek USA 09:00:41 09:30:04 00:54:39 04:53:42 03:07:21 256
30 33 Lewis Elliot USA 09:03:49 09:37:27 00:54:13 04:40:44 03:23:52 (289)
31 49 Felipe De Oliveira Manente BRA 09:03:50 09:21:06 00:53:43 04:54:57 03:10:10 225
32 45 Colin Laughery USA 09:05:16 09:28:27 00:59:04 04:50:35 03:10:37 (249)
33 51 Bryan McCrystal IRL 09:06:56 09:23:20 01:04:13 04:34:30 03:23:14 (234)
34 46 James Lubinski USA 09:07:13 09:31:08 01:02:37 04:50:22 03:09:15 262
35 48 Douglas MacLean USA 09:07:48 09:25:21 00:58:18 04:55:34 03:08:56 240
36 55 Michael Starkey USA 09:08:55 09:27:10 00:59:52 04:51:26 03:12:38 244
37 19 Patrick Bless GER 09:15:59 09:29:44 00:58:00 04:59:19 03:13:40 254
38 24 Jordan Bryden CAN 09:16:26 09:50:12 00:49:55 05:01:46 03:19:46 334
39 27 Emanuele Ciotti ITA 09:21:09 09:41:55 00:52:46 04:57:37 03:25:46 (305)
40 37 Dylan Gleeson CAN 09:28:55 09:53:07 00:56:26 04:41:07 03:46:21 (347)
41 61 Dantley Young USA 09:33:54 10:04:30 01:06:25 05:04:25 03:18:04 379
42 42 Peter Kotland CZE 09:37:19 09:57:03 00:59:27 04:58:01 03:34:51 357
43 38 Elmar Heger GER 09:41:16 10:14:31 00:57:42 04:55:01 03:43:33 409
44 53 Mario Radevic GER 09:53:35 10:27:54 01:03:08 05:02:24 03:43:03 (452)
45 52 Gilian Oriet SUI 09:54:42 10:32:28 00:59:51 04:55:42 03:54:10 (457)
46 47 Arland Macasieb PHI 09:58:23 10:33:30 01:05:08 05:11:39 03:36:36 (461)
47 20 Karl Bordine USA 10:07:41 10:33:32 00:59:22 04:39:51 04:23:28 (461)
48 28 Reinaldo De Oliveira BRA 10:09:56 10:34:26 01:02:38 05:14:24 03:47:55 (461)
49 34 Andrew Fast USA 10:10:42 10:31:43 00:58:41 05:05:45 04:01:16 (456)
50 23 Patrice Brisindi CAN 10:12:15 10:38:17 00:57:34 05:16:06 03:53:36 (464)
51 50 Brent Mcburney USA 10:27:32 10:54:13 01:00:32 05:03:52 04:18:08 (474)
52 59 Jason Watson USA 10:43:28 11:15:41 00:59:27 05:21:58 04:17:03 479
53 85 Terry Casey USA 10:44:20 11:11:44 00:59:03 05:23:42 04:16:36 (478)
54 10 Drew Scott USA 11:04:19 11:32:34 00:49:49 04:34:33 05:34:57 (481)
12 Kevin Collington USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
25 Nicholas Chase USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
29 Ivan Dominguez USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
30 Nathan Dressel USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
32 Robert Duncan USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
40 Tyler Jordan USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
44 Derek Lantz CAN n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
57 Jorge Vazquez MEX n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Exp. Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Overall
1 70 Meredith Kessler USA 08:58:15 09:25:43 00:49:56 04:51:30 03:11:50 19
2 71 Julia Gajer GER 09:03:33 09:20:48 00:53:41 04:59:47 03:05:05 14
3 72 Michelle Vesterby DEN 09:04:49 09:21:08 00:52:03 04:53:59 03:13:47 15
4 73 Heather Jackson USA 09:07:38 09:23:29 00:58:51 04:52:27 03:11:20 16
5 75 Amanda Stevens USA 09:15:13 09:39:10 00:50:56 05:00:18 03:18:58 44
6 77 Lisa Roberts USA 09:16:09 09:31:47 01:04:22 05:03:20 03:03:27 27
7 100 Danielle Mack USA 09:19:01 09:45:08 01:02:51 04:59:53 03:11:17 53
8 99 Camilla Lindholm SWE 09:24:27 09:49:46 01:07:44 04:59:09 03:12:34 66
9 74 Melanie McQuaid CAN 09:24:31 09:48:32 00:58:53 04:59:36 03:21:02 (62)
10 101 Mackenzie Madison USA 09:25:48 09:56:47 00:59:16 05:03:22 03:18:10 82
11 87 Amber Ferreira USA 09:30:38 09:49:34 00:56:13 05:08:08 03:21:17 64
12 76 Dede Griesbauer USA 09:33:19 09:50:28 00:53:26 05:04:16 03:30:37 70
13 108 Laurel Wassner USA 09:36:00 09:50:24 00:54:41 05:19:20 03:16:59 69
14 105 Darbi Roberts USA 09:36:19 10:06:51 00:53:30 05:04:33 03:33:17 (107)
15 93 Christina Jackson USA 09:41:28 10:03:20 00:52:26 05:05:50 03:38:11 95
16 86 Anna Cleaver NZL 09:43:26 10:13:31 00:53:01 05:13:55 03:31:30 (119)
17 95 Jessica Meyers USA 09:46:50 10:04:22 01:00:14 05:15:17 03:26:19 98
18 88 Christine Fletcher CAN 09:54:27 10:12:22 00:58:56 05:15:49 03:34:42 116
19 90 Sarah Graves USA 09:57:30 10:15:05 01:13:00 05:17:34 03:21:57 124
20 104 Tami Ritchie USA 10:01:36 10:31:44 00:53:28 05:33:35 03:29:32 166
21 94 Sarah Jarvis USA 10:06:48 10:30:22 01:00:30 05:14:48 03:46:30 (165)
22 82 Neilia Bliss USA 10:15:38 10:41:50 01:02:44 05:28:54 03:39:00 (172)
23 102 Caroline Martineau CAN 10:18:27 11:01:25 01:05:38 05:17:47 03:50:01 (178)
24 79 Rahel Bellinga NED 10:24:35 10:40:26 01:03:34 05:09:05 04:06:56 (170)
25 97 Leslie Lamacchia USA 10:31:40 10:57:18 01:08:39 05:30:55 03:47:06 (177)
26 89 Richele Frank CAN 10:32:53 10:59:48 01:12:18 05:21:07 03:54:29 (177)
27 81 Ali Black USA 10:36:19 10:57:27 01:03:43 05:25:49 04:01:47 (177)
28 78 Jennifer Lentzke CAN 10:38:20 11:02:34 01:13:54 05:32:32 03:46:53 (178)
29 84 Katy Cargiulo USA 10:46:20 11:13:49 01:00:38 06:01:46 03:38:56 (180)
30 96 Kathryn King GBR 10:47:49 11:15:22 01:10:52 05:47:19 03:44:38 (180)
31 83 Cori Burnett USA 11:03:54 11:32:08 00:57:40 05:54:28 04:06:46 (180)
80 Hayley Benson USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
91 Sarah Haskins USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
98 Kara Lapoint USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
103 Carrie Mccoy USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
106 Frankie Sanjana GBR n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
107 Lauren Thompson USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
109 Kelsey Withrow USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

Defending Champion Brent McMahon is the favorite for this year as well. His strongest competition comes from last year’s third place Jordan Rapp. Brent and Jordan have both raced Kona five weeks before Arizona. There are a number of strong swim/bike athletes (Maik Twelsiek who had the fastest bike split in Kona, TJ Tollakson or Andrew Starykowicz who has the fastest Ironman and 70.3 bike times) and it will be interesting to see who will still be able to have a decent run after what I expect to be a very fast and hard bike leg.

  • Brent McMahon: 37% (2-1)
  • Jordan Rapp: 27% (3-1)
  • Maik Twelsiek: 12% (7-1)
  • TJ Tollakson: 6% (16-1)
  • Andrew Starykowicz: 6% (17-1)
  • Marc Duelsen: 4% (26-1)
  • Jonathan Shearon: 2% (56-1)
  • Pedro Gomes: 2% (59-1)

Drew Scott is seeded last in my predictions, but that is a result of his 5:28 marathon from IM France. His swim and bike should be good enough to see him close to the front for a good part of the race – hopefully he’ll be able to have a better run this time!

Female Race Participants

The female race has a very interesting mix of athletes who had a good race in Kona and want to do one more decent race with the fitness they have built up (e.g. 4th Michelle Vesterby or 5th Heather Jackson), athletes that didn’t have a good race in Hawaii (e.g. defending Arizona Champion Meredith Kessler who walked most of the Kona marathon and Julia Gajer or Amanda Stevens who DNF’d), and athletes that want to get started on 2016 qualifying (such as Lisa Roberts, Danielle Mack, Camilla Lindholm or Melanie McQuaid). There is an outside chance for Heather Jackson, but I expect the race to be decided between the 2013 podium when Julia won in front of Meredith and Michelle.

  • Meredith Kessler: 37% (2-1)
  • Julia Gajer: 29% (2-1)
  • Michelle Vesterby: 21% (4-1)
  • Heather Jackson: 8% (11-1)
  • Danielle Mack: 2% (61-1)

An interesting addition to the field is Sarah Haskins who is coming into her first Ironman race with three 70.3 wins.

Kona 2015: Not the Race Shiao-Yu Li Was Looking For

Looking through the Kona splits of the Pros, one odd result caught my eye: Shiao-Yu Li, the first Taiwanese athlete to qualify for Kona as a Pro, has splits up to 25.3 miles of the run, but no finish. I was intrigued: Was there a last minute meltdown in the finish chute? I started to ask around and found that I was not the only one who wondered what was going on. Fellow Pro Ruth Brennan-Morrey remarked:

I’m curious: I came out of the water with Shiao-Yu Li. She left T1 first, then she was 15 minutes up from me at mile 11.4! In the end, my bike split is 5 minutes faster than hers, so I should have passed her. I never saw her.

7th place finisher Sarah Piampiano said:

I’ve had a slow 1:10 swim, but I thought I’d still be faster than Shiao-Yu. I was a bit surprised when I overtook her on the Queen K, but focused on my race.

Taking a Wrong Turn

Shiao-Yu’s splits also offer an explanation of what likely happened: After T1 she wasn’t registered before 11.4 miles on the bike, she didn’t have any splits at the 5 mile and 7.8 mile marks. All of a sudden she had a big gap to Ruth, and while she swam about 20 minutes slower than Daniela Ryf, she was only 9 minutes behind at the 11.4 mile bike split. 

ShiaoYuBikeKona
Shiao-Yu Li on the bike in Kona 2015 (Credit: Herbert Krabel, Slowtwitch, used with permission)

It’s pretty obvious that Shiao-Yu must have cut some part of the early course. Her friend and manager Trisha Chen relates what happened: 

Shiao-Yu is a person with very very poor sense of direction. After jumping on her bike and starting to chase others, she unfortunately missed the first 8 K of bike course. The accident happened because when she was about to turn to the right following a volunteer’s direction, another volunteer told her to go to the left.

We all knew that recognizing the course is athlete’s responsibility, however, sometimes the race has been very tense and mistakes might be made by both volunteers and athlete.

Her description is not 100% clear, maybe Shiao-Yu Li turned left coming up Makala Blvd out onto the Queen K instead of starting the loop through town. Another possibility is that she made a U-turn on the Queen K instead of turning right onto Palani Road and then down to the “Hot Corner”, cutting a major part of the loop through town that normally ends with a U-turn at the end of Kuakini Highway. Kona seems to be a pretty simple course to follow, especially considering that Shiao-Yi raced Kona before as an agegrouper. But an inadvertent wrong turn during the race seems much more plausible to me than an intentional course cutting since that is very easy to detect in Kona. Shiao-Yu must must have been confused about the directions and probably just went the wrong way.

Trisha continues:

Pretty soon she thought she might have been mislead and missed some kilometers in town because some stronger swimmers came up behind her. She immediately called upon one referee who was at around 10-20K on bike course and told him she thought she might have missed the previous course. The referee asked her whether she was sure about it or not. And he told her that since no one reported this and he did not know what to do and since she did not get a penalty back then, she should keep going. She even went to the penalty tent to ask if she could redeem the missing course by adding extra time. But since she did not receive any punishment from any referee, she could not do anything but keep going.

Shiao-Yu felt very very uncomfortable during the whole 180K. She wants to compete in honor and honesty!!

It’s probably during the discussion in one of the penalty tents that Shiao-Yu was overtaken by Ruth. The discussion must have cost a fair bit of time as well: In the end, her 2015 bike time (about 5:40 if you add 15 minutes for the 8k she missed) was slower than her 2012 time of 5:29:31 when she participated as an age grouper.

Still Finishing After All

Back in T2, Shiao-Yu tried again to correct her mistake:

After retuning to T2, she spent almost 20 minutes to find different referees, confessed to them that she was missing the course. However, since no referee or no one accused her upon his matter, it is only Shiao-Yu’s confession and honesty to be the evidence.

We are hoping that there is another way to redeem such mistakes (adding extra times…) so that athletes can still have a second chance to finish the race. After all, athlete all fought hard to get to Kona.

But the rules for not following the course are very clear for Ironman races: 

Section 2.01 GENERAL BEHAVIOR

Each athlete must:

(k)  Follow the prescribed course. It is the athlete’s responsibility to know the course. Athletes must cover the prescribed course in its entirety. Failure to do so will result in a disqualification.

Basically, the rulebook does not offer any way for her to correct the mistake she made, even if it allows for her to continue the race:

Section 3.03 DISQUALIFICATION

(a) […] If disqualified, an athlete may finish the Race unless otherwise instructed by a Race Referee.

(c) […] Neither timing splits nor Race results will be listed for disqualified athletes.

Her result would still be a DQ, but she wanted to continue:

But Shiao-yu never quit a single triathlon race before in the past 13 years, even when she was hurt in races. In her mind, no matter what happened, she would do her best and manage to run to the finish line. So she expressed her strong desire to finish this race anyway. 

After Shiao-Yu continued the race, she ran quite well and you could see her cross the line in the live coverage. Some results show her completing the run in 3:24, for now the “official” Athlete Tracker on Ironman.com lists her as a DNF. Even though she is disappointed with this year’s race, she looks forward to the next season:

Shiao-Yu felt comfortable about her strength and power and she believed that she still has great room to be improved. She has been much motivated to prepare to go back to Kona again.

While Shiao-Yu is struggling to swim well after being hit by a motorcycle while in high school, she has been steadily improving on the run. She probably needs some off-time after Kona. In order to get enough points to qualify, she had to race five Ironman races this season: Malaysia (4th), Taiwan (4th), Lanzarote (4th), UK (5th) and Japan (1st) – all before racing Kona 2015! If she manages to step up to finish more often on the podium, she has a good chance to qualify again for Kona. Hopefully she’ll have a better race then!

A big thank you to everyone who helped with this article, especially Trisha Chen for sharing Shiao-Yu’s perspective (and Caroline Livesey for putting her in touch with me) and Herbert Krabel (Slowtwitch) for permission to use the photo.

Ironman Hawaii 2015: Analyzing Results

Race Conditions

I have posted some initial analysis during the race, this post is based on the final results, taking all Pro finishers into account:

  • The 2015 race was considerably slower than last year – the tough conditions lead to an adjustment of -11:30, more than seven minutes slower than last year.
  • While the swim was about as slow as last year, the bike was a bit faster. Having followed the race I think that athletes were going a bit harder than normal, rather than the conditions being more favorable.
  • The main difference to the last years was on the run: An adjustment of -5:36 shows that times were around six minutes slower. This is reflected in the fastest run times of 2:49:52 by David McNamee and 3:06:25 by Liz Blatchford.

The harder run also lead to a large number of DNFs: While last year’s DNF rates were 20% (2013) and 23% (2014), this year there were 32% of Pro athletes that did not finish (30 out of 94 Pro starters).

Male Race Results

Jan Frodeno was the clear favorite, and he was close to the front for the whole day. There was a brief period when Tim O’Donnell was trying to get away on the bike, but he closed the gap with Sebastian Kienle into T2 and quickly pulled away on the run. His lead was never big enough to be comfortable, but in the end Frodo won by just over three minutes. Second place went to Andreas Raelert who had the best run of the top finishers – good to see him back on the podium after struggling for the last two years! “TO” earned third place and top US finisher after being active for most of the bike and then digging deep on the run.

Defending Champion Sebastian Kienle had a good swim and a good bike ride, but never managed to build a gap and then struggled a bit on the run, eventually dropping back to 8th place.

KonaMenPodium

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected Prize Money
1 Jan Frodeno GER 00:50:50 04:27:27 02:52:21 08:14:40 -04:10 US$ 120000
2 Andreas Raelert GER 00:52:24 04:30:52 02:50:02 08:17:43 -12:56 US$ 60000
3 Timothy O’Donnell USA 00:52:24 04:26:13 02:55:46 08:18:50 -23:41 US$ 40000
4 Andy Potts USA 00:50:56 04:32:41 02:53:45 08:21:25 -13:53 US$ 22500
5 Tyler Butterfield BMU 00:52:33 04:29:35 02:56:19 08:23:09 -18:44 US$ 19000
6 Cyril Viennot FRA 00:52:35 04:34:27 02:53:05 08:25:05 -21:47 US$ 16000
7 Eneko Llanos ESP 00:52:36 04:26:56 03:04:10 08:28:10 -06:26 US$ 14000
8 Sebastian Kienle GER 00:52:36 04:25:53 03:06:08 08:29:43 03:07 US$ 12500
9 Brent McMahon CAN 00:52:26 04:27:51 03:06:02 08:30:13 08:47 US$ 11000
10 Boris Stein GER 00:57:27 04:30:48 02:58:48 08:31:43 -13:20 US$ 10000
11 David McNamee GBR 00:52:31 04:45:49 02:49:52 08:32:27 -07:44
12 Ivan Rana ESP 00:52:25 04:45:42 02:51:56 08:34:27 -01:24
13 Joe Skipper GBR 00:57:31 04:28:34 03:04:09 08:36:02 -13:09
14 Lionel Sanders CAN 01:01:10 04:35:17 02:54:41 08:36:26 -15:30
15 Tim Don GBR 00:52:23 04:38:36 03:01:51 08:39:05 -08:40
16 Michael Weiss AUT 01:01:13 04:28:34 03:09:19 08:44:30 08:00
17 Miquel Blanchart Tinto ESP 00:52:43 04:53:46 02:54:28 08:45:21 -03:30
18 Pedro Gomes POR 00:56:37 04:47:55 02:57:19 08:46:14 -07:17
19 Romain Guillaume FRA 00:52:21 04:31:12 03:18:19 08:46:56 -07:40
20 Andi Boecherer GER 00:52:39 04:27:58 03:22:36 08:49:20 08:01
21 Jordan Rapp USA 00:57:00 04:39:22 03:08:35 08:50:21 13:28
22 Maik Twelsiek GER 00:57:01 04:25:10 03:25:15 08:52:11 02:37
23 Jeff Symonds CAN 00:52:41 05:04:05 02:50:15 08:52:18 11:51
24 Fredrik Croneborg SWE 00:56:44 04:45:16 03:11:25 08:58:46 04:38
25 Frederik Van Lierde BEL 00:52:28 04:27:18 03:39:03 09:03:25 34:03
26 Guilherme Manocchio BRA 00:56:47 04:47:15 03:14:55 09:04:19 09:01
27 Ben Hoffman USA 00:52:29 04:28:51 03:39:33 09:05:22 20:55
28 Justin Daerr USA 00:56:55 04:52:17 03:19:30 09:13:58 19:21
29 Nils Frommhold GER 00:52:20 04:42:06 03:37:08 09:16:44 49:42
30 Kyle Buckingham ZAF 00:56:40 04:47:52 03:36:27 09:26:16 40:59
31 Daniel Bretscher USA 00:57:07 05:04:37 03:20:33 09:27:12 33:10
32 Jan Van Berkel SUI 00:53:35 04:50:03 03:39:56 09:27:59 33:03
33 Igor Amorelli BRA 00:52:30 04:34:56 04:01:57 09:34:17 47:19
34 Christian Kramer GER 00:52:21 04:43:43 03:57:27 09:40:44 55:43
35 Dylan McNeice NZL 00:50:45 04:55:20 04:07:21 09:58:17 59:36
36 Tim Van Berkel AUS 00:52:30 04:35:34 04:25:09 09:58:18 1:14:08
37 Matt Chrabot USA 01:01:04 04:53:22 04:05:25 10:07:02 1:20:47
38 Fraser Cartmell GBR 00:52:26 05:12:57 03:56:33 10:07:08 1:09:50
Marino Vanhoenacker BEL 00:56:41 04:27:26 DNF
Bart Aernouts BEL 00:57:19 04:37:01 DNF
Matt Trautman ZAF 00:56:55 04:40:26 DNF
Callum Millward NZL 00:52:38 04:45:41 DNF
Jeremy Jurkiewicz FRA 00:52:23 04:46:58 DNF
Ronnie Schildknecht SUI 00:57:21 04:43:55 DNF
Luke Bell AUS 00:52:37 04:49:31 DNF
Brad Kahlefeldt AUS 00:52:24 04:58:54 DNF
Viktor Zyemtsev USA 00:56:58 04:59:59 DNF
Bas Diederen NED 00:52:31 05:07:31 DNF
Clemente Alonso McKernan ESP 00:52:32 05:44:31 DNF
Luke McKenzie AUS 00:52:28 DNF
Denis Chevrot FRA 00:52:28 DNF
Paul Ambrose AUS 00:52:32 DNF
Cameron Brown NZL 00:57:09 DNF
Matt Hanson USA 01:01:11 DNF

Female Race Results

Daniela Ryf was the clear favorite after her amazing last two years of long distance racing. Similar to last year she took control of the bike after half the distance and built a gap to the rest of the field. Others tried to limit the distance to her but then struggled on the run. Daniela, however, was strong enough to post the third fastest marathon (by 12 seconds) and the only sub-9  finish of the day, winning by 13 minutes. Rachel Joyce had the best run of the women trying to limit the gap to Daniela on the bike – a satisfying end to a season where she struggled with a run injury for a while. Liz Blatchford had the best run of the day and ran herself onto the podium.

Defending Champion Mirinda Carfrae struggled with back issues, after she lost some time on the swim and some more in the first half of the bike, she ended her title defense at the turnaround in Hawi. She made it back to Kona in time to cheer for husband TO on the run.

KonaFemalePodium

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected Prize Money
1 Daniela Ryf SUI 00:56:14 04:50:46 03:06:37 08:57:57 -16:44 US$ 120000
2 Rachel Joyce GBR 00:56:11 05:01:29 03:08:42 09:10:59 -08:43 US$ 60000
3 Liz Blatchford AUS 00:56:13 05:07:25 03:06:25 09:14:52 -14:04 US$ 40000
4 Michelle Vesterby DEN 00:56:11 05:00:41 03:17:14 09:18:50 -16:18 US$ 22500
5 Heather Jackson USA 01:04:36 05:04:43 03:07:53 09:21:45 -19:00 US$ 19000
6 Susie Cheetham GBR 00:57:39 05:14:33 03:06:55 09:23:50 -07:37 US$ 16000
7 Sarah Piampiano USA 01:10:01 05:02:28 03:06:33 09:24:32 -24:48 US$ 14000
8 Camilla Pedersen DEN 00:56:14 04:59:17 03:25:23 09:25:41 -05:32 US$ 12500
9 Caroline Steffen SUI 00:56:16 05:10:53 03:15:27 09:27:54 04:45 US$ 11000
10 Lucy Gossage GBR 01:05:08 05:02:40 03:15:51 09:28:36 -01:46 US$ 10000
11 Asa Lundstroem SWE 01:05:18 05:04:37 03:16:05 09:30:43 -15:44
12 Annabel Luxford AUS 00:56:08 05:04:00 03:27:50 09:32:43 -02:14
13 Mary Beth Ellis USA 00:56:16 04:59:29 03:33:37 09:33:34 04:18
14 Elizabeth Lyles USA 01:00:04 05:16:12 03:14:06 09:35:07 -05:08
15 Beth Gerdes USA 01:05:18 05:11:45 03:16:49 09:39:14 -09:54
16 Eva Wutti AUT 01:05:22 05:22:38 03:10:18 09:43:25 20:08
17 Britta Martin NZL 01:05:20 05:18:07 03:18:51 09:47:31 04:07
18 Kelly Williamson USA 00:59:54 05:35:52 03:10:12 09:51:01 09:26
19 Caitlin Snow USA 01:01:16 05:28:06 03:24:44 10:00:15 14:48
20 Dimity-Lee Duke AUS 01:05:22 05:24:04 03:27:44 10:02:57 05:02
21 Mareen Hufe GER 01:05:12 04:59:15 03:55:52 10:05:01 16:07
22 Dede Griesbauer USA 00:56:39 05:11:08 03:56:34 10:09:49 07:35
23 Ruth Brennan Morrey USA 01:16:52 05:19:24 03:39:57 10:22:57 42:45
24 Laurel Wassner USA 00:57:42 05:36:59 03:51:30 10:33:49 37:48
25 Ariane Monticeli BRA 01:05:12 05:15:19 05:16:01 11:41:53 1:43:44
26 Meredith Kessler USA 00:56:13 05:37:39 05:44:57 12:26:22 1:50:05
Jodie Swallow GBR 00:55:04 04:58:48 DNF
Angela Naeth CAN 01:02:28 04:54:54 DNF
Gina Crawford NZL 00:56:18 05:21:52 DNF
Diana Riesler GER 01:04:20 05:14:59 DNF
Julia Gajer GER 00:57:38 05:42:55 DNF
Shiao-yu Li TWN 01:16:26 05:25:41 DNF
Astrid Stienen GER 01:09:53 05:44:15 DNF
Leanda Cave GBR 00:56:07 DNF
Haley Chura USA 00:56:22 DNF
Amanda Stevens USA 00:57:42 DNF
Heather Wurtele CAN 00:59:57 DNF
Mirinda Carfrae AUS 01:00:55 DNF
Tine Deckers BEL 01:05:12 DNF
Sofie Goos BEL 01:05:15 DNF

Photo Credit: Ironman

Kona 2015: Preliminary Bike Analysis (Women)

With the Top 16 of the women in, here are a few observations about the women’s bike leg:

  • The bike for the women has been very fast, most of the women raced considerable faster than their expected time.
  • Best relative performances have been by Mareen Hufe (6:45 faster) and Michelle Vesterby (7:18 faster).
  • Only Carolin Steffen has been considerably slower than what I would have expected based on her previous times (11 minutes slower). Susie Cheetham was slower by four minutes, but is still in a good position for a Top 10 finish.

Top 10 Projection

Here are the current projections for Top 10 on the female side (with Angela Naeth a DNF):

  1. Daniela Ryf SUI 09:02:12
  2. Rachel Joyce GBR 09:10:21
  3. Jodie Swallow GBR 09:13:37
  4. Liz Blatchford AUS 09:19:07
  5. Mary Beth Ellis USA 09:20:08
  6. Camilla Pedersen DEN 09:20:51
  7. Michelle Vesterby DEN 09:20:53
  8. Lucy Gossage GBR 09:23:35
  9. Caroline Steffen SUI 09:24:06
  10. Susie Cheetham GBR 09:27:34

Bike Analysis

Rank  Name Nation Bike Bike Diff
1 Daniela Ryf  SUI 04:50:46  -04:37 
2 Angela Naeth  CAN 04:54:54  -04:10 
3 Jodie Swallow  GBR 04:58:48  -04:05 
4 Mareen Hufe  GER 04:59:15  -06:45 
5 Camilla Pedersen  DEN 04:59:17  -05:55 
6 Mary Beth Ellis  USA 04:59:29  -04:43 
7 Michelle Vesterby  DEN 05:00:41  -07:18 
8 Rachel Joyce GBR 05:01:29 -01:32
9 Lucy Gossage  GBR 05:02:40  -04:07 
10 Annabel Luxford AUS 05:04:00 02:46
11 Heather Jackson USA 05:04:43 01:03
12 Liz Blatchford  AUS 05:07:25  -03:39 
13 Caroline Steffen  SUI 05:10:53  11:01 
14 Dede Griesbauer  USA 05:11:08  -05:53 
15 Susie Cheetham  GBR 05:14:33  04:42 
16 Elizabeth Lyles USA 05:18:32 02:22

Kona 2015: Preliminary Bike Analysis (Men)

After the first men are in, here are some observations:

  • Similar to the swim, conditions were pretty typical for Kona – meaning that a course record is probably not in the cards.
  • So far Maik Twelsiek posted the fastest bike split in 4:25:10, nearly 6 minutes than expected
  • Sebastian Kienle rode a bit quicker than Jan Frodeno, but was still 1:30 slower than expected.
  • Jan Frodeno was more than two minutes quicker than expected, he is projected to be the winner this year. But of course the marathon still has to be run!
  • Tim O’Donnell and Joe Skipper were 13:42 and 10:36 quicker than expected – hopefully they can still have a good run!

Projected Top 10

  1. Jan Frodeno GER 08:12:50
  2. Brent McMahon CAN 08:15:42
  3. Frederik Van Lierde BEL 08:18:44
  4. Sebastian Kienle GER 08:19:12
  5. Andreas Raelert GER 08:19:39
  6. Timothy O’Donnell USA 08:21:14
  7. Andy Potts USA 08:21:35
  8. Eneko Llanos ESP 08:24:02
  9. Ben Hoffman USA 08:24:09
  10. Marino Vanhoenacker BEL 08:25:27

Bike Analysis

Rank  Name Nation Bike Bike Diff
1 Maik Twelsiek  GER 04:25:10  -05:42 
2 Sebastian Kienle GER 04:25:53 01:32
3 Timothy O’Donnell  USA 04:26:13  -13:42 
4 Eneko Llanos  ESP 04:26:56  -05:51 
5 Frederik Van Lierde BEL 04:27:18 -02:49
6 Marino Vanhoenacker BEL 04:27:26 00:57
7 Jan Frodeno GER 04:27:27 -02:20
8 Brent McMahon CAN 04:27:51 -02:20
9 Andi Boecherer  GER 04:27:58  -03:27 
10 Joe Skipper  GBR 04:28:34  -10:36 
11 Michael Weiss AUT 04:28:34 00:53
12 Ben Hoffman  USA 04:28:51  -06:49 
13 Tyler Butterfield  BMU 04:29:35  -06:42 
14 Boris Stein  GER 04:30:48  -05:10 
15 Andreas Raelert  GER 04:30:52  -04:35 
16 Romain Guillaume  FRA 04:31:12  -08:18 
17 Andy Potts  USA 04:32:41  -04:35 
18 Cyril Viennot  FRA 04:34:27  -05:54 
19 Igor Amorelli  BRA 04:34:56  -05:51 
20 Lionel Sanders CAN 04:35:17 -00:02
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