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Kona 2015: Preliminary Bike Analysis (Women)

With the Top 16 of the women in, here are a few observations about the women’s bike leg:

  • The bike for the women has been very fast, most of the women raced considerable faster than their expected time.
  • Best relative performances have been by Mareen Hufe (6:45 faster) and Michelle Vesterby (7:18 faster).
  • Only Carolin Steffen has been considerably slower than what I would have expected based on her previous times (11 minutes slower). Susie Cheetham was slower by four minutes, but is still in a good position for a Top 10 finish.

Top 10 Projection

Here are the current projections for Top 10 on the female side (with Angela Naeth a DNF):

  1. Daniela Ryf SUI 09:02:12
  2. Rachel Joyce GBR 09:10:21
  3. Jodie Swallow GBR 09:13:37
  4. Liz Blatchford AUS 09:19:07
  5. Mary Beth Ellis USA 09:20:08
  6. Camilla Pedersen DEN 09:20:51
  7. Michelle Vesterby DEN 09:20:53
  8. Lucy Gossage GBR 09:23:35
  9. Caroline Steffen SUI 09:24:06
  10. Susie Cheetham GBR 09:27:34

Bike Analysis

Rank  Name Nation Bike Bike Diff
1 Daniela Ryf  SUI 04:50:46  -04:37 
2 Angela Naeth  CAN 04:54:54  -04:10 
3 Jodie Swallow  GBR 04:58:48  -04:05 
4 Mareen Hufe  GER 04:59:15  -06:45 
5 Camilla Pedersen  DEN 04:59:17  -05:55 
6 Mary Beth Ellis  USA 04:59:29  -04:43 
7 Michelle Vesterby  DEN 05:00:41  -07:18 
8 Rachel Joyce GBR 05:01:29 -01:32
9 Lucy Gossage  GBR 05:02:40  -04:07 
10 Annabel Luxford AUS 05:04:00 02:46
11 Heather Jackson USA 05:04:43 01:03
12 Liz Blatchford  AUS 05:07:25  -03:39 
13 Caroline Steffen  SUI 05:10:53  11:01 
14 Dede Griesbauer  USA 05:11:08  -05:53 
15 Susie Cheetham  GBR 05:14:33  04:42 
16 Elizabeth Lyles USA 05:18:32 02:22

Kona 2015: Preliminary Bike Analysis (Men)

After the first men are in, here are some observations:

  • Similar to the swim, conditions were pretty typical for Kona – meaning that a course record is probably not in the cards.
  • So far Maik Twelsiek posted the fastest bike split in 4:25:10, nearly 6 minutes than expected
  • Sebastian Kienle rode a bit quicker than Jan Frodeno, but was still 1:30 slower than expected.
  • Jan Frodeno was more than two minutes quicker than expected, he is projected to be the winner this year. But of course the marathon still has to be run!
  • Tim O’Donnell and Joe Skipper were 13:42 and 10:36 quicker than expected – hopefully they can still have a good run!

Projected Top 10

  1. Jan Frodeno GER 08:12:50
  2. Brent McMahon CAN 08:15:42
  3. Frederik Van Lierde BEL 08:18:44
  4. Sebastian Kienle GER 08:19:12
  5. Andreas Raelert GER 08:19:39
  6. Timothy O’Donnell USA 08:21:14
  7. Andy Potts USA 08:21:35
  8. Eneko Llanos ESP 08:24:02
  9. Ben Hoffman USA 08:24:09
  10. Marino Vanhoenacker BEL 08:25:27

Bike Analysis

Rank  Name Nation Bike Bike Diff
1 Maik Twelsiek  GER 04:25:10  -05:42 
2 Sebastian Kienle GER 04:25:53 01:32
3 Timothy O’Donnell  USA 04:26:13  -13:42 
4 Eneko Llanos  ESP 04:26:56  -05:51 
5 Frederik Van Lierde BEL 04:27:18 -02:49
6 Marino Vanhoenacker BEL 04:27:26 00:57
7 Jan Frodeno GER 04:27:27 -02:20
8 Brent McMahon CAN 04:27:51 -02:20
9 Andi Boecherer  GER 04:27:58  -03:27 
10 Joe Skipper  GBR 04:28:34  -10:36 
11 Michael Weiss AUT 04:28:34 00:53
12 Ben Hoffman  USA 04:28:51  -06:49 
13 Tyler Butterfield  BMU 04:29:35  -06:42 
14 Boris Stein  GER 04:30:48  -05:10 
15 Andreas Raelert  GER 04:30:52  -04:35 
16 Romain Guillaume  FRA 04:31:12  -08:18 
17 Andy Potts  USA 04:32:41  -04:35 
18 Cyril Viennot  FRA 04:34:27  -05:54 
19 Igor Amorelli  BRA 04:34:56  -05:51 
20 Lionel Sanders CAN 04:35:17 -00:02

Kona 2015: Preliminary Swim Analysis

After the swim I did a quick analysis of the data. Here are a few quick points:

  • The swim in Kona is always slow, this year it was maybe just a little bit slower than in the last years. The 2014 adjustment was -4:46, this year’s preliminary adjustment -4:58, 12 seconds slower.
  • In the mens’s race we saw fast swims by Romain Guillaume (58 seconds faster than expected), Ben Hoffman (1:21), Paul Ambrose (1:20), Tim Berkel (1:47).
    But Sebastian Kienle had the best swim relative to expectations, 3 minutes quicker than expected!
  • Slow men’s swims were by Dylan McNeice (even though he won the swim, he was 1:02 slower than expected), Brad Kahlefeldt (1:39), Brent McMahon (1:03),
    Two strong bikers also didn’t really have a good swim: Marino Vanhoenacker (2:37) and Maik Twelsiek (2:09)
  • In the female race there were fast swims by Annabel Luxford (53 seconds faster than expected), Caroline Steffen (47 sec), Dede Griesbauer (46 sec) , Susie Cheetham (3:50) and Liz Lyles (2:25).
  • Similar to Dylan on the men’s side, Jodie Swallow won the swim but was slower than expected (by 1:31). Meredith Kessler (1:05), Haley Chura (2:17) and Amanda Stevens (2:43) also don’t have the swims they were probably looking for.

Preliminary Swim Analysis Men

Rank  Name Nation Swim Swim Diff
1  Dylan McNeice  NZL 00:50:48  01:02 
2  Jan Frodeno GER 00:50:50 -00:07
3  Andy Potts  USA 00:50:56 00:20
4  Christian Kramer  GER 00:52:21 -00:06
5  Nils Frommhold GER 00:52:23 00:21
6  Tim Don GBR 00:52:25 00:11
7  Romain Guillaume  FRA 00:52:25  -00:58 
8  Jeremy Jurkiewicz FRA 00:52:26 00:07
9  Timothy O’Donnell  USA 00:52:27 00:33
10  Andreas Raelert  GER 00:52:27 -00:34
11  Brad Kahlefeldt  AUS 00:52:27  01:39 
12  Fraser Cartmell  GBR 00:52:28 -00:28
13  Denis Chevrot FRA 00:52:28 00:31
14  Frederik Van Lierde  BEL 00:52:28 00:07
15  Ivan Rana ESP 00:52:28 00:00
16  Brent McMahon  CAN 00:52:28  01:03 
17  Luke McKenzie  AUS 00:52:30 -00:36
18  David McNamee GBR 00:52:31 00:16
19  Ben Hoffman  USA 00:52:32  -01:21 
20  Paul Ambrose AUS 00:52:32  -01:20 
21  Igor Amorelli BRA 00:52:33 00:18
22  Tim Van Berkel  AUS 00:52:33  -01:47 
23  Bas Diederen NED 00:52:35 00:19
24  Tyler Butterfield  BMU 00:52:36  -01:06 
25  Miquel Blanchart Tinto ESP 00:52:36  -01:00 
26  Sebastian Kienle  GER 00:52:36  -03:00

Swim Analysis

Rank  Name Nation Swim Swim Diff
1  Jodie Swallow  GBR 00:55:04  01:31 
2  Leanda Cave  GBR 00:56:08 00:24
3  Annabel Luxford AUS 00:56:11  -00:53 
4  Michelle Vesterby  DEN 00:56:14 -00:44
5  Rachel Joyce  GBR 00:56:14 -00:10
6  Mary Beth Ellis USA 00:56:16 00:21
7  Liz Blatchford AUS 00:56:16 00:05
8  Daniela Ryf SUI 00:56:17 -00:36
9  Camilla Pedersen DEN 00:56:17 00:12
10  Meredith Kessler  USA 00:56:17  01:05 
11  Caroline Steffen  SUI 00:56:19  -00:47 
12  Gina Crawford  NZL 00:56:21 -00:38
13  Haley Chura  USA 00:56:25  02:17 
14  Dede Griesbauer  USA 00:56:42  -00:46 
15  Julia Gajer GER 00:57:39 -00:31
16  Susie Cheetham GBR 00:57:43  -03:50 
17  Laurel Wassner USA 00:57:45  -00:56 
18  Amanda Stevens  USA 00:57:45  02:43 
19  Kelly Williamson  USA 00:59:58  01:42 
20  Heather Wurtele CAN 01:00:01 00:07
21  Elizabeth Lyles  USA 01:00:07  -02:25 
22  Mirinda Carfrae  AUS 01:00:58 00:36

Kona 2015 Profile: Jan Frodeno (GER)

FrodoPointsFrodoBib

Career Highlights

  • Olympic Champion 2008
  • 70.3 World Champion 2015

2015 Season

  • 1st 70.3 California, 70.3 Barcelona
  • 1st IM Frankfurt 7:49:48
  • 1st 70.3 Champs

FrodoFRARun

In his 2014 Ironman races, “Frodo” was forced to deal with problems: Three flats in Frankfurt led to a wheel change and lots of lost time, another flat in Kona was quickly fixed but he incurred a penalty when he went back on the course in the middle of a group. But at IM Frankfurt 2015 everything came together for him. He also showed how to beat Sebi: Frodo had the fastest swim and then hammered a new 4:08 bike course record. Sebi was one minute faster than his old bike CR, but he still lost three minutes to Frodo who sealed up the race with a 2:50 marathon, winning by almost 12 minutes.

Frodo continued his domination by winning the 70.3 Championships in Zell am See – again reaching T2 in front of Sebi and building a dominating lead in the first half of the run.

If Frodo is anywhere close to his summer shape, he’ll be hard to beat in Kona with his strength in all three legs and the flexibility that gives him. But there are very few cases of athletes doing well in a summer IM and also in Kona.

(Photo: Frodo leaving T2 at IM Germany, Credit: TriRating)

This is an excerpt from my free “Kona Rating Report” – 150+ pages with tons of information about the Kona Pro races!

Kona 2015 Profile: Daniela Ryf (SUI)

DanielaPointsDanielaBib

Career Highlights

  • 70.3 Champion 2014&15
  • Multiple IM Winner (Switzerland, Copenhagen, Germany)
  • 2nd Kona 2014
  • 2-time Olympian (2008, 2012)

2015 Season

  • 1st 70.3 Mallorca, 70.3 Switzerland
  • 1st IM Germany 8:51:00 (CR)
  • 1st 70.3 Champs 4:11:34

DanielaZaS

Daniela is going from one amazing win to the next – her second place finish in Kona is the only race she hasn’t won since switching to Ironman racing last summer. Her wins include two 70.3 Championships and a new course record in Frankfurt (8:51 in hot conditions). Daniela has made improvements in every Ironman she has raced so far – her bike power is undisputed, and her run times are getting faster as well, even if her fastest marathon is “only” a 3:06 in the Frankfurt heat. If everything goes right in her Kona build and race, no one would be surprised to see a Chrissie-level domination by Daniela. However, I think that she’ll need to run close the 3-hour mark if she want to win – with a 3:07 marathon (as last year) one of the other strong women on the Kona start line will be able to snatch the win from her.

(Photo: Daniela winning 70.3 Champs. Credit: Delly Carr)

This is an excerpt from my free “Kona Rating Report” – 150+ pages with tons of information about the Kona Pro races!

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