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Ironman UK 2015 (July 19th) – Predictions

IMUK Update (July 11th): Mareen has decided to race in Switzerland and has been removed from the UK startlist. Corinne has told me that she won’t be racing either. (Both allowed me to share this information.)

Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2005 Bryan Rhodes (NZL) 08:42:11 Rebecca Preston (AUS) 09:37:56
2006 Frank Heldoorn (NED) 08:36:34 Dede Griesbauer (USA) 09:37:41
2007 Scott Neyedli (GBR) 08:35:57 Bella Bayliss (GBR) 09:36:13
2008 Stephen Bayliss (GBR) 08:53:59 Bella Bayliss (GBR) 09:49:07
2009 Philip Graves (GBR) 08:45:52 Bella Bayliss (GBR) 09:34:00
2010 Fraser Cartmell (GBR) 08:40:18 Yvette Grice (GBR) 10:01:03
2011 Aaron Farlow (AUS) 08:24:34 Kristin Moeller (GER) 09:19:04
2012 Daniel Halksworth (GBR) 08:55:11 Eimear Mullan (IRL) 10:08:44
2013 Daniel Halksworth (GBR) 08:45:48 Lucy Gossage (GBR) 09:29:12
2014 Cyril Viennot (FRA) 08:44:10 Tamsin Lewis (GBR) 09:52:12

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Cyril Viennot FRA 00:51:15 04:50:48 02:57:35 08:44:10
2 Joe Skipper GBR 00:51:17 05:04:04 02:48:20 08:48:12
3 Kirill Kotshegarov EST 00:51:14 04:58:58 02:55:41 08:51:01

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Tamsin Lewis GBR 00:55:07 05:33:14 03:18:04 09:52:12
2 Katja Konschak GER 00:51:17 05:59:02 03:14:34 10:11:25
3 Joanna Carritt GBR 01:00:09 05:42:46 03:33:35 10:21:14

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:24:34 Aaron Farlow 2011-07-31
Swim overall 00:43:35 Fraser Cartmell 2010-08-01
Bike overall 04:50:48 Cyril Viennot 2014-07-20
Run overall 02:41:46 Aaron Farlow 2011-07-31
Total female 09:19:04 Kristin Moeller 2011-07-31
Swim female 00:48:19 Amanda Stevens 2012-07-22
Bike female 05:22:13 Lucy Gossage 2013-08-04
Run female 02:41:57 Kristin Moeller 2011-07-31

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM UK is 00:47.

Race Adjustments for IM UK

Ironman UK was held in Sherbourn up to 2008, since 2009 it is held in its current location in Bolton.

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Athletes Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2006 10:29 04:55 04:38 06:03 18 10:29 04:55 04:38 06:03
2007 11:09 03:07 -04:13 10:14 28 10:49 04:01 00:13 08:08
2008 -02:39 01:12 -14:08 04:12 21 06:20 03:05 -04:34 06:50
2009 02:07 -03:07 -10:16 10:41 16 05:16 01:32 -06:00 07:47
2010 00:57 04:32 -24:08 09:33 12 04:24 02:08 -09:37 08:09
2011 08:04 04:43 -14:36 23:08 15 05:01 02:34 -10:27 10:38
2012 -07:15 00:00 -10:22 02:14 8 03:16 02:12 -10:26 09:26
2013 -05:41 04:02 -12:24 03:09 13 02:09 02:25 -10:41 08:39
2014 -10:08 01:09 -15:16 01:17 14 00:47 02:17 -11:11 07:50

KPR points and Prize Money

IM UK is a P-2000 race. It has a total prize purse of 75.000 US$.

Male Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Overall
1 11 David Dellow AUS 08:28:00 08:36:46 00:44:56 04:48:08 02:49:56 (39)
2 8 Denis Chevrot FRA 08:32:09 08:38:58 00:45:10 04:55:46 02:46:13 46
3 6 David McNamee GBR 08:33:12 08:44:16 00:46:12 04:53:41 02:48:18 (63)
4 10 Victor Del Corral ESP 08:35:10 08:33:24 00:53:09 04:53:22 02:43:38 31
5 4 Joe Skipper GBR 08:35:22 08:43:20 00:50:45 04:51:20 02:48:17 59
6 2 Fraser Cartmell GBR 08:39:24 08:47:19 00:46:11 04:48:36 02:59:37 77
7 1 Stephen Bayliss GBR 08:42:29 09:04:29 00:45:29 04:55:59 02:56:01 (147)
8 3 Will Clarke GBR 08:59:47 09:11:26 00:47:43 04:56:52 03:10:12 (182)
9 13 Yu Shinozaki JPN 09:18:58 10:07:41 00:54:01 04:59:49 03:20:07 400
10 5 Oliver Simon GBR 09:20:04 09:31:44 00:46:44 05:04:20 03:24:00 268
7 Simon Brierley SEY n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
9 Sam Clark n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
12 Dominic Rohan-Gates GBR n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
14 Brad Williams USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Overall
1 19 Lucy Gossage GBR 09:20:51 09:19:24 00:54:57 05:19:12 03:01:42 11
2 35 Diana Riesler GER 09:22:14 09:32:41 00:54:52 05:12:22 03:10:00 31
3 21 Corinne Abraham GBR 09:23:17 09:23:37 00:56:55 05:19:27 03:01:55 15
4 37 Michelle Vesterby DEN 09:26:44 09:30:27 00:49:45 05:20:58 03:11:00 27
5 29 Mareen Hufe GER 09:37:40 09:37:04 00:57:46 05:18:18 03:16:36 41
6 36 Keiko Tanaka JPN 09:56:12 10:06:13 00:53:04 05:41:16 03:16:52 104
7 32 Shiao-yu Li TWN 09:57:26 10:00:55 01:04:40 05:38:10 03:09:36 89
8 27 Eleanor Haresign GBR 10:00:47 10:04:43 00:56:58 05:34:42 03:24:07 101
9 33 Caroline Livesey GBR 10:01:22 10:08:22 00:58:30 05:38:35 03:19:17 (110)
10 22 Joanna Carritt GBR 10:05:11 10:13:55 00:59:14 05:38:46 03:22:11 118
11 30 Anne Jensen DNK 10:16:26 10:23:30 01:05:47 05:32:22 03:33:17 (144)
12 20 Amy Forshaw GBR 10:19:01 10:30:08 01:00:21 05:52:05 03:21:35 156
13 24 Jana Candrova CZE 10:27:48 10:31:44 01:01:42 05:49:36 03:31:29 157
14 28 Alice Hector GBR 10:40:36 10:57:41 00:53:27 06:07:11 03:34:58 (170)
31 Kathryn King GBR n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
34 Suzie Richards GBR n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

KPR Situation

Male Race Participants

After his second place in Texas, Joe Skipper is almost assured his Kona slot with 4.015 points, but he’ll want to show that he is the best British athlete on the start list.

Behind him, there are quite a few athletes that are looking for some more points to reach my projected cutoff of 3.800 points. Most of them still have an “open points slot” and can just add their UK points to their total, for the others I’m showing the “base points” before removing their weakest result:

  • Victor Del Corral (3.020, base 2.900; needs 4th or better)
  • Denis Chevrot (2.820; needs 4th or better)
  • David McNamee (2.695; probably needs 3rd or better)
  • Will Clarke (2.405; needs 3rd or better)
  • Fraser Cartmell (1.945; needs a win)

Female Race Participants

Lucy Gossage is racing for the win, with 5.425 points she is already well clear of my cutoff projection of 5.100. Diana Riesler is also safe (6.270) but she has told me that she won’t be racing. There are others that need more points:

  • Corinne Abraham (4.725; needs 6th or better – unclear if she’ll race, she was taken off the Switzerland list and posted on her blog that she’ll be racing Maastricht)
  • Mareen Hufe (4.490, base 3.975; needs 3rd or better – also on the Switzerland list)
  • Michelle Vesterby (3.575; needs 2nd or better)
  • Shia-Yu Li (3.560, base 2.600; probably too far back even with a win)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

Based on previous results, this looks to be a close race between Denis Chevrot and David Dellow, but David has just had a DNF in Frankfurt. If I had to pick a favorite it would be Joe Skipper who had fantastic race in Texas and is anxious to show he can ride sub-5 in Bolton and win his home IM:

  • Denis Chevrot: 26% (3-1)
  • David Dellow: 24% (3-1)
  • Fraser Cartmell: 15% (6-1)
  • Victor Del Corral: 13% (6-1)
  • Joe Skipper: 12% (7-1)
  • Stephen Bayliss: 6% (15-1)
Will Clarke has announced on his blog that he won’t be racing.

Female Race Participants

Lucy Gossage is the clear favorite for the women, and another British win looks very likely. Diana Riesler won’t start, and Corinne Abraham and Mareen Hufe are also on the list for Switzerland:

  • Lucy Gossage: 44% (1-1)
  • Diana Riesler: 30% (2-1)
  • Corinne Abraham: 15% (6-1)
  • Michelle Vesterby: 8% (11-1)
  • Mareen Hufe: 2% (48-1)

Ironman Switzerland 2015 (July 19th) – Predictions

IMSUIUpdate (July 10th): Corinne Abraham and Eimear Mullan are no longer on the startlist posted by ironman.com.

Update (July 14th): Matt Trautmann has tweeted that he has broken his clavicle. Speedy healing, I hope he’ll be back in form for Kona.

Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2005 Christoph Mauch (SUI) 08:21:48 Karin Thuerig (SUI) 09:10:51
2006 Mathias Hecht (SUI) 08:26:01 Rebecca Preston (AUS) 09:24:18
2007 Ronnie Schildknecht (SUI) 08:24:58 Rebecca Preston (AUS) 09:20:40
2008 Ronnie Schildknecht (SUI) 08:16:05 Sibylle Matter (SUI) 09:30:12
2009 Ronnie Schildknecht (SUI) 08:20:00 Sibylle Matter (SUI) 09:14:35
2010 Ronnie Schildknecht (SUI) 08:12:40 Karin Thuerig (SUI) 09:00:04
2011 Ronnie Schildknecht (SUI) 08:19:51 Karin Thuerig (SUI) 09:03:26
2012 Ronnie Schildknecht (SUI) 08:17:13 Erika Csomor (HUN) 09:20:16
2013 Ronnie Schildknecht (SUI) 08:33:39 Anja Beranek (GER) 09:21:31
2014 Boris Stein (GER) 08:33:02 Daniela Ryf (SUI) 09:13:30

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Boris Stein GER 00:58:49 04:35:55 02:53:49 08:33:02
2 David Plese SLO 00:56:44 04:37:35 02:54:51 08:34:13
3 Marek Jaskolka POL 00:51:23 04:51:09 02:53:46 08:40:40

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Daniela Ryf SUI 00:56:41 05:00:18 03:11:03 09:13:30
2 Natascha Badmann SUI 01:05:10 04:55:00 03:23:01 09:28:37
3 Sonja Tajsich GER 01:05:14 04:59:49 03:19:13 09:29:15

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:12:40 Ronnie Schildknecht 2010-07-25
Swim overall 00:45:29 Benjamin Sanson 2005-07-15
Bike overall 04:27:42 Ronnie Schildknecht 2012-07-15
Run overall 02:41:58 Clemente Alonso McKernan 2011-07-10
Total female 09:00:04 Karin Thuerig 2010-07-25
Swim female 00:51:23 Celine Schaerer 2014-07-27
Bike female 04:43:53 Karin Thuerig 2010-07-25
Run female 03:00:27 Kristin Moeller 2014-07-27

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Switzerland is 06:06.

Race Adjustments for IM Switzerland

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Athletes Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2005 -03:50 00:25 02:46 -07:19 6 -03:50 00:25 02:46 -07:19
2006 15:12 01:09 04:34 00:02 21 05:41 00:47 03:40 -03:39
2007 16:28 -01:00 10:07 01:36 26 09:17 00:11 05:49 -01:54
2008 08:26 -00:10 01:43 01:50 22 09:04 00:06 04:48 -00:58
2009 12:10 -00:57 05:49 05:20 30 09:41 -00:07 05:00 00:18
2010 06:52 -01:25 05:36 02:00 27 09:13 -00:20 05:06 00:35
2011 09:41 -02:31 00:57 07:25 17 09:17 -00:39 04:30 01:34
2012 07:00 -03:11 04:02 02:15 24 09:00 -00:58 04:27 01:39
2013 -09:50 -05:13 02:43 -05:14 35 06:54 -01:26 04:15 00:53
2014 -01:06 -03:47 05:01 -00:18 25 06:06 -01:40 04:20 00:46

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Switzerland is a P-2000 race. It has a total prize purse of 50.000 US$.

Male Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Overall
1 1 Ronnie Schildknecht SUI 08:19:56 08:27:12 00:52:33 04:30:08 02:52:15 16
2 35 Matt Trautman ZAF 08:24:13 08:30:45 00:51:49 04:34:05 02:53:19 20
3 31 Alessandro Degasperi ITA 08:26:51 08:38:35 00:53:46 04:37:06 02:50:59 (45)
4 2 David Plese SLO 08:30:15 08:38:56 00:53:59 04:35:29 02:55:47 45
5 5 Mike Aigroz SUI 08:32:11 08:44:39 00:49:33 04:37:01 03:00:38 64
6 28 Michael Raelert GER 08:32:48 08:42:24 00:49:00 04:39:11 02:59:36 (57)
7 11 Miquel Blanchart Tinto ESP 08:34:53 08:42:51 00:50:19 04:48:04 02:51:30 58
8 3 Jan Van Berkel SUI 08:38:13 08:53:24 00:48:47 04:36:14 03:08:12 100
9 7 Alberto Casadei ITA 08:39:09 08:57:55 00:49:00 04:44:32 03:00:37 121
10 29 Dirk Wijnalda NED 08:44:00 09:04:39 00:58:27 04:45:50 02:54:43 148
11 6 Mauro Baertsch SUI 08:48:54 09:05:06 00:55:13 04:49:58 02:58:43 151
12 4 Mike Schifferle SUI 08:54:49 09:03:47 01:01:25 04:44:10 03:04:14 143
13 8 Rafael Wyss SUI 08:56:22 09:14:58 01:01:14 04:45:16 03:04:52 (198)
14 17 Martin Matula CZE 08:57:42 09:00:30 00:54:04 04:55:01 03:03:36 (131)
15 30 Manuel Kueng SUI 08:58:35 09:26:25 00:48:02 04:45:00 03:20:34 (246)
16 14 Kevin Everett USA 09:01:33 09:20:48 00:48:15 04:35:33 03:32:45 (226)
17 9 Samuel Huerzeler SUI 09:04:58 09:11:22 00:55:22 04:58:20 03:06:16 181
18 15 Rinus Holvoet BEL 09:13:17 09:25:13 00:54:41 04:55:55 03:17:41 (245)
19 23 Damien With FRA 09:15:10 09:32:48 00:54:04 04:53:53 03:22:12 (274)
20 21 Hendrik-Jan Verhaegen BEL 09:21:41 09:31:24 00:58:46 04:57:08 03:20:47 266
21 27 Evgeniy Nikitin RUS 09:36:59 10:19:03 00:52:44 05:13:56 03:25:18 432
22 33 David Jilek CZE 09:37:35 09:47:14 01:00:54 05:00:22 03:31:19 327
23 25 Lukas Polan CZE 09:42:00 09:59:32 01:05:04 05:04:02 03:27:55 372
24 38 Ivan Kharin RUS 09:46:58 10:02:58 01:09:25 05:05:30 03:27:03 (380)
25 12 Dan Brown PHI 09:54:58 11:12:34 01:04:19 05:13:31 03:32:08 482
26 20 Matthew Smith CZE 09:55:48 10:10:52 01:04:36 05:23:26 03:22:46 (410)
27 13 Rod De Kanel FRA 10:21:39 10:41:24 00:54:12 05:10:48 04:11:39 (469)
28 24 Valentin Zasypkin RUS 10:32:06 11:11:19 01:10:04 05:29:52 03:47:10 (482)
29 26 Marek Nemcik SVK 11:24:03 12:03:47 01:12:07 05:42:30 04:24:26 486
10 Martin Bader AUT n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
16 Thomas Kaiser GER n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
18 Mathias Nagel GER n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
19 Pascal Ramali GER n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
22 Michal Volejnik CZE n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
32 Matteo Fontana ITA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
34 Gilian Oriet SUI n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
36 Andy Sutz SUI n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Overall
1 47 Mary Beth Ellis USA 09:15:23 09:17:08 00:52:13 05:01:50 03:16:20 9
2 41 Corinne Abraham GBR 09:17:44 09:23:37 01:01:06 05:02:53 03:08:45 15
3 59 Beth Gerdes USA 09:28:49 09:52:53 01:03:47 05:14:44 03:05:18 71
4 58 Mareen Hufe GER 09:31:58 09:37:04 01:01:55 05:01:21 03:23:41 41
5 52 Eimear Mullan IRL 09:33:22 09:58:47 01:00:48 05:14:33 03:13:01 86
6 57 Regula Rohrbach SUI 09:36:13 09:50:30 00:58:16 05:01:45 03:31:12 64
7 50 Dimity-Lee Duke AUS 09:38:33 09:52:00 01:03:34 05:14:09 03:15:50 68
8 51 Mariana Andrade BRA 09:53:35 10:22:26 01:02:21 05:11:06 03:35:08 141
9 48 Lina-Kristin Schink GER 10:15:47 10:29:03 01:12:33 05:25:09 03:33:04 (155)
10 54 Nicole Woysch GER 10:17:02 10:41:26 01:00:18 05:24:35 03:47:09 (162)
11 60 Alena Stevens SVK 10:20:12 10:34:40 01:02:59 05:38:27 03:33:46 (159)
12 49 Angela Kuehnlein GER 10:30:16 10:43:49 01:05:03 05:31:54 03:48:18 (165)

KPR Situation

Men

A few of the men are already safe for a July Kona slot:

  • Ronnie Schildknecht (5.550)
  • Matt Trautmann (7.195)
There are a few others that still need a few more points:
  • Miquel Blanchard Tinto: 3.700 at 3+1 (to improve he needs to score more than 960 points, i.e. 3rd or better)
  • Michael Raelert (3.000, he races Zürich as his 2015 IM race, a 4th or better should be enough for him)
A lot of athletes have to place in the Top3 or better for a slot – they probably avoided the deep field in Frankfurt and hope for better chances in Zürich:
  • Mike Aigroz (2.825)
  • Jan Van Berkel (2.600)
  • David Plese (2.285)
  • Alessandro Degasperi (2.000)
  • Mauro Baertsch (1.905)
  • Alberto Casadei (1.791)
Most of these can add another IM to their score or will only loose a few points.

Women

Mary Beth Ellis already has enough points for a slot, but she still needs to finish an Ironman (but will be racing for a good result as well).

In addition to her, there are athletes that need to place well to score the points they still need for a July slot (projected cutoff at 5.100 points). Most of them have already raced a lot, so in addition to the points they have at this point, I also show the “base” points they have before adding a good Zürich result to their score:

  • Corinne Abraham (4.725, same base; needs a 7th or better, but was DNS in Austria and it’s not clear if she’ll be racing)
  • Mareen Hufe (4.490, base 3.975; needs 3rd or better)
  • Beth Gerdes (4.515, base 3.795; needs 2nd or better)
  • Dimitry-Lee Duke (3.945, base 3.625; needs 2nd or better)
Among the other athletes, Eimear Mullan is the one with most points, but with 2.000 points she is already too far back for even a theoretical chance to qualify.

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

Ronnie Schildknecht has won this race seven times in a row, last year he was forced to race in Frankfurt in order to get more points for his Kona qualifying. This year, he is already safe after a 3rd place in Texas and can go back to his home race. He is joined by a number of strong athletes that are looking for more Kona points or a just a decent Ironman race:

  • Ronnie Schildknecht: 43% (1-1)
  • Matt Trautman: 17% (5-1)
  • Alessandro Degasperi: 15% (6-1)
  • David Plese: 8% (12-1)
  • Miquel Blanchart Tinto: 6% (16-1)
  • Mike Aigroz: 4% (23-1)
  • Michael Raelert: 4% (24-1)

Female Race Participants

  • Mary Beth Ellis: 50% (1-1)
  • Corinne Abraham: 22% (4-1)
  • Beth Gerdes: 13% (7-1)
  • Mareen Hufe: 9% (11-1)
  • Eimear Mullan: 3% (28-1)

Ironman Germany 2015 – Analyzing Results

Race Conditions

This year’s IM Germany was very hot with lots of sun and temperatures getting close to 40°C/100°F. This lead to overall slower times, an adjustment of 4:45 was a lot slower than the course rating of 12:38. It seemed to uniformly affect the swim (non-wetsuit of course), the bike and the run. The effects on the age groupers was probably even higher.

Male Race Results

Jan Frodeno was one of the favorites going into the race, and he delivered a fantastic race with best splits on all three legs (including a 4:08 bike leg – third fastest ever on the Ironman bike leg!) and a new course record improving on Sebi’s 7:55 from last year.

FrodoRun

Sebi finished in second place, almost 12 minutes back of Frodo. Nonetheless, he had a good race not loosing to much time in the swim, improving on his bike course record from last year and then having a solid 2:56 marathon in the heat. In third place there was another German: Andi Böcherer had a very good race after struggling with injuries for the last years.

Behind the top three, Bas Diederen (4th), Ty Butterfield (7th) and Eneko Llanos (8th) scored some more points for their Kona slots. Frederik Van Lierde finished fifth, but after his win in South Africa his focus was probably more on Kona in October. After struggling a bit on the swim, Andreas Raelert had a solid race, but his 6th place leaves him still short of enough points for a slot.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected Prize Money
1 Jan Frodeno GER 00:46:02 04:08:43 02:50:49 07:49:48 -23:34 US$ 30000
2 Sebastian Kienle GER 00:50:03 04:11:07 02:56:44 08:01:39 -12:03 US$ 15000
3 Andi Boecherer GER 00:46:56 04:14:05 02:58:14 08:03:49 -29:56 US$ 8000
4 Bas Diederen NED 00:48:17 04:18:01 02:54:57 08:05:36 -17:29 US$ 6500
5 Frederik Van Lierde BEL 00:48:11 04:17:42 02:57:30 08:07:09 -07:22 US$ 5000
6 Andreas Raelert GER 00:49:58 04:24:04 02:52:05 08:09:53 -07:23 US$ 3500
7 Tyler Butterfield BMU 00:48:13 04:18:08 03:15:15 08:26:25 -00:24 US$ 2500
8 Eneko Llanos ESP 00:48:21 04:17:48 03:18:34 08:29:04 11:14 US$ 2000
9 Miquel Blanchart Tinto ESP 00:48:17 04:45:41 02:54:47 08:32:28 -00:49 US$ 1500
10 Marko Albert EST 00:48:16 04:33:35 03:13:01 08:38:40 08:48 US$ 1000
11 Martijn Dekker NED 00:48:09 04:37:15 03:28:42 08:59:06 n/a
12 Martin Droell GER 00:58:23 04:49:11 03:12:55 09:04:47 n/a
13 Anton Blokhin UKR 00:54:18 04:49:55 03:28:54 09:17:27 38:04
14 Ivan Jezko SVK 01:02:27 04:54:12 03:33:24 09:36:00 04:29
15 Wouter Monchy BEL 00:50:01 04:54:21 03:53:11 09:42:21 n/a
16 David Jilek CZE 01:00:50 04:57:42 03:45:18 09:48:32 17:11
17 Lukas Polan CZE 01:02:23 05:06:30 04:02:15 10:16:50 37:06
18 Maksim Kalinin RUS 01:15:17 05:22:24 03:47:08 10:31:16 07:31
19 Mario Radevic GER 01:03:13 05:06:01 04:18:56 10:33:11 47:22
20 Young Hwan Oh KOR 01:02:37 05:12:52 04:12:25 10:33:24 n/a
21 Juha Laitinen FIN 01:07:52 05:09:27 04:11:25 10:36:46 52:01
Evert Scheltinga NED 00:50:02 04:43:29 DNF
Carlos Lopez Diaz ESP 00:48:08 04:46:07 DNF
Simon Billeau FRA 00:59:48 04:46:21 DNF
Michael Ruenz GER 00:57:47 04:52:22 DNF
Emanuele Ciotti ITA 00:57:54 04:53:28 DNF
Thomas Kaiser GER 01:00:50 04:53:25 DNF
Ludovic Le Guellec FRA 01:06:49 05:22:59 DNF
David Dellow AUS 00:47:00 DNF
Alfred Rahm GER 01:08:26 DNF
Mathias Nagel GER 01:41:01 DNF

Female Race Results

Daniela Ryf continued her impressive string of Ironman races with a solid win in Frankfurt, posting another course record. After staying in a group with Julia Gajer and Caroline Steffen until about 90k on the bike, she took off and quickly built a 7-minute lead into T2 and finished off the day with her fastest IM marathon so far.

As she was hoping for, Julia Gajer managed to take another step forward in her long distance racing. She staid with Daniela and Caroline on the swim and when Daniela rode away from them, she was also able to build a lead to Caroline Steffen, starting the run 3 minutes ahead of Caroline. There were no changes in the Top 3 on the run, only the differences increased between Daniela, Julia and Caroline.

WomenPodium

RuthRun

Behind them, lots of positions changed. Sonja Tajsich struggled with injuries for quite some time, she had a solid day to finish in fourth. She was almost run down by Ruth Brennan-Morrey who used a 3:04:49 marathon to run her way from 9th in T2 into a 5th place finish that she needed for a Kona slot.

Kristin Möller had the fastest run split of the day, the 3:01:14 took her into 6th place.

Michelle Vesterby was fourth in T2 but DNF’d around the half marathon mark. She needs to do another Ironman if she wants to qualify. Tine Deckers was fifth in T2, but she finished in 7th just a few weeks after racing IM Brasil and also needs more points.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected Prize Money
1 Daniela Ryf SUI 00:52:46 04:47:50 03:06:06 08:51:00 -10:46 US$ 30000
2 Julia Gajer GER 00:52:47 04:55:22 03:09:04 09:01:58 -10:38 US$ 15000
3 Caroline Steffen SUI 00:52:42 04:58:52 03:16:26 09:11:55 06:25 US$ 8000
4 Sonja Tajsich GER 01:03:27 04:56:05 03:15:25 09:19:29 -08:26 US$ 6500
5 Ruth Brennan-Morrey USA 01:06:31 05:04:26 03:04:59 09:21:09 -01:54 US$ 5000
6 Kristin Moeller GER 01:04:27 05:13:55 03:01:14 09:23:56 -04:54 US$ 3500
7 Tine Deckers BEL 00:58:20 04:58:19 03:27:18 09:28:20 05:14 US$ 2500
8 Astrid Stienen GER 00:58:38 05:08:07 03:24:22 09:36:03 03:01 US$ 2000
9 Tine Holst DEN 01:03:44 05:12:14 03:34:14 09:54:30 -04:43 US$ 1500
10 Katharina Grohmann GER 01:09:29 05:11:55 03:28:52 09:55:08 -03:50 US$ 1000
11 Annett Kamenz GER 01:04:52 05:44:08 04:19:25 11:17:21 1:07:30
Michelle Vesterby DEN 00:52:45 05:02:41 DNF
Nicole Woysch GER 00:59:15 05:08:25 DNF

Challenge Roth 2015 (July 12th) – Predictions

RothLogo

Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2005 Chris McCormack (AUS) 07:58:45 Belinda Granger (AUS) 09:14:06
2006 Chris McCormack (AUS) 08:00:52 Joanna Lawn (NZL) 09:01:17
2007 Chris McCormack (AUS) 07:54:23 Yvonne Van Vlerken (NED) 08:51:55
2008 Patrick Vernay (NCL) 08:09:34 Yvonne Van Vlerken (NED) 08:45:48
2009 Michael Goehner (GER) 07:55:53 Chrissie Wellington (GBR) 08:31:59
2010 Rasmus Henning (DEN) 07:52:36 Chrissie Wellington (GBR) 08:19:13
2011 Andreas Raelert (GER) 07:41:33 Chrissie Wellington (GBR) 08:18:13
2012 James Cunnama (ZAF) 07:59:59 Rachel Joyce (GBR) 08:45:04
2013 Dirk Bockel (LUX) 07:52:01 Caroline Steffen (SUI) 08:40:35
2014 Timo Bracht (GER) 07:56:00 Mirinda Carfrae (AUS) 08:38:53

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Timo Bracht GER 00:48:58 04:19:59 02:44:32 07:56:00
2 Nils Frommhold GER 00:48:39 04:15:16 02:54:03 08:00:39
3 Eneko Llanos ESP 00:49:02 04:19:54 02:57:35 08:09:29

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Mirinda Carfrae AUS 00:55:24 04:46:48 02:53:27 08:38:53
2 Rachel Joyce GBR 00:52:43 04:43:11 03:03:21 08:42:25
3 Caroline Steffen SUI 00:52:08 04:48:14 03:05:05 08:48:42

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 07:41:33 Andreas Raelert 2011-07-10
Swim overall 00:45:57 Pete Jacobs 2009-07-12
Bike overall 04:11:43 Andreas Raelert 2011-07-10
Run overall 02:39:43 Rasmus Henning 2010-07-18
Total female 08:18:13 Chrissie Wellington 2011-07-10
Swim female 00:47:27 Ute Mueckel 2005-06-24
Bike female 04:36:33 Chrissie Wellington 2010-07-18
Run female 02:44:35 Chrissie Wellington 2011-07-10

Course Rating

The Course Rating for Challenge Roth is 18:43.

Race Adjustments for Challenge Roth

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Athletes Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2005 18:02 01:08 13:32 05:29 9 18:02 01:08 13:32 05:29
2006 12:37 01:17 06:34 03:26 37 15:19 01:13 10:03 04:28
2007 22:56 00:52 10:30 06:52 28 17:52 01:06 10:12 05:16
2008 20:40 01:58 06:45 08:00 38 18:34 01:19 09:20 05:57
2009 25:59 02:04 15:06 05:07 41 20:03 01:28 10:29 05:47
2010 18:59 00:27 07:25 05:17 42 19:52 01:18 09:59 05:42
2011 20:43 01:49 15:24 05:19 34 19:59 01:22 10:45 05:39
2012 14:53 02:22 05:43 04:52 50 19:21 01:30 10:08 05:33
2013 21:13 00:27 13:24 04:46 37 19:34 01:23 10:29 05:28
2014 11:04 -00:10 13:08 -01:10 33 18:43 01:13 10:45 04:48

Male Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Overall
1 1 Timo Bracht GER 07:59:01 08:23:54 00:47:33 04:23:14 02:43:15 8
2 2 Nils Frommhold GER 07:59:48 08:17:04 00:46:17 04:18:22 02:50:08 3
3 27 Clemente Alonso McKernan ESP 08:08:08 08:25:34 00:46:15 04:28:51 02:48:02 12
4 4 Andrew Starykowicz USA 08:16:13 08:36:07 00:46:50 04:16:44 03:07:39 (37)
5 6 Markus Fachbach GER 08:17:27 08:46:38 00:48:01 04:29:43 02:54:44 66
6 8 Andrej Vistica CRO 08:22:12 08:46:44 00:51:05 04:31:54 02:54:13 67
7 5 Horst Reichel GER 08:22:52 08:55:19 00:47:40 04:32:57 02:57:15 111
8 20 Per Bittner GER 08:24:21 08:49:48 00:48:10 04:32:26 02:58:45 86
9 14 Fredrik Croneborg SWE 08:26:37 08:47:53 00:50:43 04:40:19 02:50:34 77
10 9 Roeland Smits NED 08:28:11 08:56:46 00:51:21 04:38:06 02:53:44 115
11 80 Johann Ackermann GER 08:30:08 09:09:54 00:47:16 04:36:52 03:01:00 (173)
12 7 Thomas Hellriegel GER 08:31:22 09:08:52 00:49:55 04:23:53 03:12:34 (166)
13 24 Stefan Schmid GER 08:31:35 08:46:59 00:52:07 04:36:46 02:57:42 71
14 79 Casey Munro AUS 08:33:22 08:56:56 00:45:49 04:30:56 03:11:38 (116)
15 16 Sergio Marques POR 08:33:26 08:56:09 00:53:09 04:43:23 02:51:54 114
16 10 Christian Brader GER 08:34:37 08:55:48 00:55:18 04:40:54 02:53:24 113
17 18 Gerrit Schellens BEL 08:37:03 08:48:25 00:52:00 04:54:41 02:45:22 79
18 47 Gyula Kis HUN 08:37:51 09:07:13 00:50:15 04:47:05 02:55:31 (154)
19 29 Harry Wiltshire GBR 08:38:26 08:57:09 00:46:39 04:41:16 03:05:31 117
20 19 Petr Vabrousek CZE 08:38:27 09:00:00 00:53:59 04:40:36 02:58:53 126
21 12 Scott Defilippis USA 08:39:12 09:14:42 00:54:15 04:46:54 02:53:03 196
22 11 Michael Wetzel GER 08:41:42 09:13:38 00:55:00 04:42:37 02:59:05 188
23 44 Dave Rost NED 08:42:51 09:17:27 00:48:45 04:40:53 03:08:13 (204)
24 36 Gergö Molnar HUN 08:44:08 09:04:15 00:48:39 04:43:20 03:07:09 143
25 15 Sebastian Bleisteiner GER 08:45:03 09:14:30 00:51:00 04:45:19 03:03:44 (196)
26 17 Jens Kaiser GER 08:46:23 09:17:45 00:56:06 04:37:54 03:07:23 (204)
27 69 Marcel Bischof GER 08:49:08 09:19:43 00:55:03 04:43:56 03:05:09 216
28 25 Christopher Bagg USA 08:49:28 09:28:28 00:53:13 04:42:08 03:09:06 251
29 42 Niels Brandt-Joergensen DEN 08:50:37 09:20:42 00:55:59 04:50:43 02:58:55 (223)
30 22 Blake Becker USA 08:52:12 09:31:47 00:51:32 04:47:24 03:08:16 268
31 26 Andreas Niedrig GER 08:53:48 09:15:38 00:46:14 04:34:34 03:28:01 198
32 23 Raul Furtado BRA 08:55:40 09:21:59 00:51:49 04:40:12 03:18:39 230
33 33 Thomas Naasz NED 09:05:20 09:27:03 00:54:45 04:52:32 03:13:03 248
34 40 Urs Mueller SWI 09:09:15 09:40:24 00:55:32 04:53:03 03:15:40 (305)
35 74 Dan McGuigan AUS 09:12:40 09:55:00 01:00:22 04:42:07 03:25:11 (362)
36 48 Kasper Ougaard DEN 09:16:59 09:58:52 01:01:30 04:50:31 03:19:58 (372)
37 35 Michael Louys BEL 09:19:55 09:46:04 00:59:54 04:52:20 03:22:41 (322)
38 45 Josef Krivanek CZE 09:33:59 09:59:15 00:57:24 05:00:15 03:31:19 (374)
39 75 Kaon Cho KOR 12:29:03 13:11:32 01:00:07 05:02:32 06:21:25 (486)
30 Olivier Godart LUX n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
34 Marton Flander n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
43 Robert Karas n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
70 Christopher Haas n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
71 Julian Mutterer GER n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
73 Henry Beck n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
78 Toumy Degham FRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
616 Christian Jais GER n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
1164 Carlos Silva n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Overall
1 51 Yvonne Van Vlerken NED 08:52:15 09:13:35 00:56:35 04:44:53 03:05:47 5
2 52 Gina Crawford NZL 09:00:47 09:23:47 00:50:36 04:59:54 03:05:18 16
3 53 Anja Beranek GER 09:03:26 09:32:43 00:51:27 04:51:40 03:15:19 (32)
4 56 Diana Riesler GER 09:03:59 09:32:41 00:56:10 04:48:33 03:14:16 31
5 59 Carrie Lester AUS 09:23:00 09:37:59 00:53:46 05:06:06 03:18:08 45
6 54 Daniela Saemmler GER 09:24:01 09:49:19 00:53:36 05:02:11 03:23:14 61
7 58 Natascha Schmitt GER 09:25:17 10:16:41 00:52:27 05:18:15 03:09:34 (125)
8 Laura Bennett USA 09:27:43 10:05:55 00:51:23 05:02:17 03:29:03 (105)
9 68 Stefanie Adam BEL 09:35:41 10:20:33 00:54:41 04:57:05 03:38:55 (136)
10 60 Ana Casares ESP 09:35:45 10:09:56 01:09:09 05:06:45 03:14:52 (112)
11 61 Verena Walter GER 09:37:21 10:07:36 00:57:47 05:08:39 03:25:55 (110)
12 64 Vanessa Pereira POR 10:14:41 10:44:57 01:01:19 05:30:05 03:38:17 168
13 65 Cathleen Knutson USA 10:20:59 10:49:42 01:05:18 05:33:24 03:37:17 (169)
63 Simona Krivankova n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
67 Katja Kern n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

This year we’ll see a re-match from last year: Timo Bracht ran down Nils Frommhold to finally win in Roth. As long as Andy Starykowicz is fit again after last year’s injury, he will make the race very interesting: He will be trying to build a big lead on the swim and bike (anyone betting on him going sub-4 for the bike?) and then hold on to his lead on the run. There are a few others that can contend for a podium spot.

  • Timo Bracht: 36% (2-1)
  • Nils Frommhold: 32% (2-1)
  • Clemente Alonso McKernan: 19% (4-1)
  • Andrew Starykowicz: 5% (19-1)
  • Horst Reichel: 3% (31-1)
  • Markus Fachbach: 2% (43-1)

Female Race Participants

Yvonne is the clear favorite, she has won here in 2007 and 2008. Gina Crawford another top athlete that is always good for a solid race. Anja Beranek will look for a good long distance race after deciding not to chase a Kona slot this year.

  • Yvonne Van Vlerken: 54% (1-1)
  • Gina Crawford: 18% (4-1)
  • Diana Riesler: 18% (5-1)
  • Anja Beranek: 8% (11-1)

Ironman Coeur d’Alene 2015 – Analyzing Results

Race Conditions

If there was one thing the 2015 edition of “CdA” will be remembered for, it was the heat. Temperatures well over 100°F (38°C) lead to a discussion of shortening the race before deciding on an earlier start, a non-wetsuit swim, a high DNF rate and some spectacular struggles (though no serious issues as far as I have heard). While the swim and bike were pretty normal, the run was very slow for CdA (adjustment of -4:54), and the overall adjustment of -8:24 leads to a new course rating of -0:02.

Male Race Results

Andy Potts made it clear from the start that he was focused on winning this race – he didn’t want to waste any energy and Barrett Brandon was first out of the water. After that Andy quickly took control of the race, he had a great race posting both the fastest bike and run, winning by more than 20 minutes. He was followed by Callum Millward who proved to be a tough competitor in tough conditions in only his second Ironman race. The surprise third finisher was Stephen Kilshaw who edged out countryman Trevor Wurtele for the final spot on the podium.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected Prize Money
1 Andy Potts USA 00:50:30 04:33:13 02:53:25 08:20:35 -14:27 US$ 20000
2 Callum Millward NZL 00:51:47 04:44:07 03:00:34 08:41:12 06:04 US$ 10000
3 Stephen Kilshaw CAN 00:54:45 04:43:37 03:00:05 08:43:04 -48:16 US$ 6500
4 Trevor Wurtele CAN 00:56:42 04:41:30 03:04:40 08:46:38 -13:07 US$ 4000
5 Barrett Brandon USA 00:50:23 04:53:45 03:00:02 08:47:29 -01:52 US$ 3000
6 Trevor Delsaut FRA 00:55:15 04:48:47 03:00:21 08:47:49 -09:02 US$ 2000
7 Pedro Gomes POR 00:54:46 04:48:52 03:06:03 08:53:15 03:02 US$ 1500
8 Matthew Russell USA 00:57:03 04:46:00 03:09:24 08:57:34 -01:00 US$ 1250
9 Derek Garcia USA 00:54:52 04:47:07 03:12:07 08:58:55 -12:47 US$ 1000
10 Jonathan Shearon USA 00:57:06 04:46:01 03:14:28 09:02:01 04:20 US$ 750
11 Patrick Evoe USA 00:58:46 04:49:04 03:28:28 09:20:27 16:14
12 Maik Twelsiek GER 00:54:50 04:36:39 03:51:26 09:27:11 43:07
13 Douglas MacLean USA 01:00:38 05:20:04 03:21:34 09:48:28 21:58
14 Michael Starkey USA 01:00:48 05:12:34 03:34:44 09:52:12 32:30
15 Andrew Fast USA 01:01:27 05:15:45 04:07:00 10:27:39 xx:-21:50
16 Yu Shinozaki JPN 01:00:40 05:02:55 04:27:57 10:35:49 36:14
17 Terry Casey USA 01:01:35 05:32:55 04:21:39 11:02:17 n/a
18 Dan Brown PHI 01:12:36 06:52:10 07:56:45 16:16:54 1:57:33
Paul Matthews AUS 00:50:26 04:46:56 DNF
Matt Lieto USA 00:55:19 04:43:53 DNF
Leon Griffin AUS 00:54:47 04:58:26 DNF
Matthew Sheeks USA 01:16:09 05:04:23 DNF
Jim Lubinski USA 01:11:55 05:28:18 DNF
Eric Reid USA 00:59:34 DNF
Dantley Young USA 01:16:46 DNF

Female Race Results

After making up the swim deficit to super-swimmer Amanda Stevens, Heather Jackson took the lead by mile 65 on the bike and went on to posted the fastest marathon by far. Similar to Andy, Heather had a huge winning margin. Only four weeks after IM Brasil, Amanda Stevens finished second; both Heather and Amanda have enough points for a July Kona slot. The final spot on the podium went to Kim Schwabenbauer.

The only DNF in the women’s pro field was Dede Griesbauer who was mowed down by a truck illegally entering the race course. She was banged up pretty badly, but was allowed to leave the hospital after a few x-rays. She did not have a chance to score the points she still needed for a Kona slot, I hope she recovers quickly for another chance!

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected Prize Money
1 Heather Jackson USA 01:02:00 05:08:31 03:08:54 09:23:27 -21:53 US$ 20000
2 Amanda Stevens USA 00:54:14 05:19:51 03:22:20 09:40:16 -02:34 US$ 10000
3 Kim Schwabenbauer USA 01:07:03 05:16:01 03:23:07 09:50:19 01:56 US$ 6500
4 Amber Ferreira USA 01:01:59 05:20:43 03:31:55 09:58:53 -00:05 US$ 4000
5 Katy Blakemore USA 00:56:03 05:24:10 03:35:01 09:59:18 14:32 US$ 3000
6 Leslie DiMichele Miller USA 01:01:59 05:28:40 03:27:20 10:02:29 n/a US$ 2000
7 Tamara Kozulina UKR 01:07:08 05:25:27 03:32:27 10:09:29 17:04 US$ 1500
8 Sarah Graves USA 01:21:15 05:24:36 03:26:12 10:18:18 05:41 US$ 1250
9 Alyssa Godesky USA 01:04:47 05:28:05 03:41:08 10:18:38 -23:35 US$ 1000
10 Anne Basso FRA 01:04:59 05:39:15 03:30:50 10:21:24 02:18 US$ 750
11 Haley Cooper-Scott USA 01:05:00 05:26:02 03:46:39 10:21:28 09:44
12 Sarah Jarvis USA 01:05:02 05:33:35 03:47:01 10:29:25 03:41
13 Laura Siddall GBR 01:01:57 05:29:17 03:57:40 10:34:06 48:09
14 Olesya Prystayko UKR 01:06:50 05:53:15 04:04:40 11:09:19 43:24
15 Michelle Mighdoll USA 01:07:20 05:44:27 04:13:37 11:11:29 n/a
16 Jen Annett CAN 01:07:11 05:21:09 04:40:29 11:12:52 59:41
Dede Griesbauer USA 00:59:25 DNF
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