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Kona 2015 Odds – Male Pros

Male Winners

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This year will be quite interesting as it is very hard to pick a clear favorite based purely on numbers. For Kona the previous year’s winner will always be in the mix. Defending champion Sebastian Kienle has shown some good races this year, so there is every reason to expect him close to the front again. But he is overshadowed by last year’s third, Jan Frodeno. Jan had a dominant race in Frankfurt, improving Sebi’s course record from last year and also winning the 70.3 Champs.

Based on the data the next athlete to consider is Marino Vanhoenacker. He still has to show that he can have one more great race in Kona. Frederik Van Lierde, the 2013 Champion, will be in the mix as well. Nils Frommhold seems to be ready to take another step forward after his 6th place last year and winning Challenge Roth in the summer.

Favorites

  • Jan Frodeno 22% (3-1)
  • Sebastian Kienle 19% (4-1)

In the Mix

  • Marino Vanhoenacker 16% (5-1)
  • Frederik Van Lierde 12% (7-1)
  • Nils Frommhold 10% (9-1)

Long Shots

  • Brent McMahon 4% (26-1)
  • Ivan Rana 3% (28-1)
  • Andi Boecherer 3% (36-1)
  • Andy Potts 2% (50-1)

Male TOP 3

Sebi and Frodo are also my safe bets for a podium, but the third spot is pretty open. If Marino has a good race he has a good shot at the podium, but Frederik will make it hard. With Nils Frommhold and Andi Böcherer there are two more German podium contenders – we may easily end up with a German podium! Andy Potts is the big American hope for a podium spot.

Safe Bets

  • Sebastian Kienle 51% (1-1)
  • Jan Frodeno 44% (2-1)

Knocking on the Door

  • Marino Vanhoenacker 34% (2-1)
  • Nils Frommhold 29% (3-1)
  • Frederik Van Lierde 28% (3-1)
  • Andi Böcherer 27% (3-1)
  • Andy Potts 17% (5-1)

Outside Chances

  • Clemente Alonso 13% (7-1)
  • Brent MacMahon 13% (7-1)
  • Ivan Rana 8% (12-1)
  • Ronnie Schildknecht 8% (12-1)
  • Bas Diederen 6% (17-1)
  • Andreas Raelert 6% (17-1)
  • Jordan Rapp 4% (24-1)
  • Timothy O’Donnell 4% (27-1)
  • Ben Hoffmann 3% (31-3)

(Photo: Sebi and Frodo after the 70.3 Championships in Zell am See, Credit: Joern Pollex/Getty Images for Ironman)

This is an excerpt from my free “Kona Rating Report” – 150+ pages with tons of information about the Kona Pro races!

Kona 2015 Profile: Matt Hanson (USA)

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Career Highlights

  • Multiple IM Winner (Chattanogga, Texas)

2015 Season

  • 5th IM Wisconsin 8:50:16
  • 1st IM Chattanooga 8:12:32
  • 1st IM Texas 8:07:03
  • 7th 70.3 Racine

Matt was the “surprise” winner of IM Texas this year. He jokes that “some people are convinced that I didn’t win IMTX, but everyone else lost it”. But as with all “overnight successes”, this result has been a long time in the making and certainly no fluke: Matt has raced Kona before as an agregrouper (with a 2:53 marathon!) and had already won IM Chattanooga before. After his win in Texas he decided to focus on being a professional triathlete – in the summer he did not renew his contract as an Assistant Professor of Exercise Science and Athletic Training at Buena Vista University in Iowa.

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Matt has prepared a long time for Texas: “I spent 8 months focused on winning that race so taking the tape was an amazing way to show how the hard work paid off.” But his long term focus has always been on Kona: “Kona is where all of my major goals in the sport revolve around. Everything else is just preparing to put myself in a position to enter that race well rested and in good form. Volume is a bit higher over the summer than it has been in previous years, but this has always been part of the plan regardless of what happened in Texas. The biggest thing I am doing now is paying more attention to recovery.”

Even though Matt has raced Kona before, this will be his first time as a Pro. It’s hard to predict if he can make the first bike group with his slower swim, but maybe he’s even better off if he can ride his own race and not be forced to react to the pace changes in the front group. That way he can save his legs for the run and he may end up having the fastest run split. He may not be the top US finisher this year but if his development continues in the same methodical fashion he may turn out to be the next US Kona winner.

(Photo: Matt on his bike at IM Texas, supplied by Matt)

This is an excerpt from my free “Kona Rating Report” – 150+ pages with tons of information about the Kona Pro races!

Kona 2015 Profile: Meredith Kessler (USA)

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Career Highlights

  • Multiple IM Winner (Canada, St. George, Coeur d’Alene, New Zealand, Arizona)
  • More than 50 AG and Pro IM finishes

2015 Season

  • 1st IM Arizona 8:50:41
  • 1st IM New Zealand 9:05:45
  • 1st 70.3 Auckland, Raleigh, Mont Tremblant, Vineman
  • DNF 70.3 Champs

Meredith is one of the most prolific and consistent Ironman athletes – with the exception of Kona. In her four Pro starts, she finished 7th (2013), 26th (2010) and DNF’d twice (2012 & 14). Last year’s DNF was caused by vomiting on the bike – she eventually had to be pulled off the run course.

She quickly bounced back, managed to finally win IM Arizona in November (after being 2nd both previous years before) and also IM New Zealand in March – for the fourth time in a row. This more or less secured her Kona slot, so she and coach Matt Dixon dialed back her IM schedule. She was still successfully racing a lot of 70.3s: “The highlight of our season was likely the four victory stretch from Ironman Raleigh 70.3 in early June through Vineman in the middle of July. It is rewarding to be able to stay consistent through four closely spaced races in this day and age of better competition in the women’s triathlon field.”

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But Meredith’s focus was clearly on Kona and racing well: “While everyone is racing the best athletes in the world in Kona, I know for me personally, the main limiter is the conditions and the elements. If I were a Rinny or Sebastian (or many others of course!), my goals would be quite different. They KNOW they can conquer the conditions, they thrive in them and have prevailed in victory in Kona. It is a much different scenario for me since I have yet to perform in Kona and am still searching for the right pieces to the Kona puzzle. Athletes do want to be properly prepared for this beast – and that may mean coming out to the island much earlier than you would for a normal season A-race IM.”

In any race other than Kona, Meredith would be a podium candidate: Her strong swim and bike allow her to go with anyone, probably even with a Daniela Ryf. If she has any weakness against a top-class field, it’s her run: Her best marathon run was this year’s 3:07 from New Zealand – while she has been steadily getting faster, she will need a run close to three hours for a spot on the podium. She hasn’t shown that she’ll be able to do that this year, and her Kona struggles in the past years don’t increase the likelihood. But Meredith is trying a more focused approach this year, and I look forward to see the results on race day.

(Photo: Meredith during a track session. Supplied by Meredith)

This is an excerpt from my free “Kona Rating Report” – 150+ pages with tons of information about the Kona Pro races!

Kona 2015 Profile: Tim Van Berkel (AUS)

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Career Highlights

  • 7th Kona 2014
  • Multiple IM-distance Winner (IM Western Australia, Challenge Copenhagen)

2015 Season

  • 2nd IM Melbourne 8:07:57
  • 1st 70.3 Sunshine Coast

Last year was the first time that Tim qualified for Kona. He had to chase points until June, but after his 2nd place in Cairns he could focus on Kona and was one of the positive surprises in 7th place. That result allowed him to only focus on two highlights this year: Melbourne (to validate) and Kona. He had to work hard all day in Melbourne with some back problems. Nonetheless he pulled through and finished second, calling it “a $#*!!y way of earning money”. After making some coaching changes in the summer and a long training block in Boulder, he seems to be on a good trajectory for Kona, winning the 70.3 Sunshine Coast against a strong field.

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In order to do well he has to hope that the pace is not too insane in the swim and early part of the bike: If he can make the front group, his experience from last year should help him to better position himself and avoid being forced to burn too many matches to stay with the group. He then hopes that an improved run (longer runs and running on tired legs) gives him a good chance to repeat last year’s performance – or maybe even stay in the 4th place that he was in for a good while after the Energy Lab.

(Photo: Tim winning 70.3 Sunshine Coast, Credit: Delly Carr)

This is an excerpt from my free “Kona Rating Report” – 150+ pages with tons of information about the Kona Pro races!

Kona 2015 Profile: Julia Gajer (GER)

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Career Highlights

  • IM Winner (Arizona)
  • 3 sub-9 finishes in her first IM-distance races (Roth 2011/12/13)
  • 6th Kona 2014

2015 Season

  • 1st 70.3 Luxembourg
  • 2nd IM Germany 9:01:58
  • 6th 70.3 Champs

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Last year’s six place finish in Kona was a huge success for Julia. This year she will try to confirm her position as a Top 10 Kona athlete and maybe take the next step towards the podium.

The quiet, determined German has made some changes after Kona 2014: She switched coaches to Wolfram Bott who also works with the Raelert Brothers and Nils Frommhold. Together they decided to put the focus on improving on her bike leg. Judging the way Julia was performing in Frankfurt, they are already seeing the results: Julia was staying in a group with Caroline and Daniela, and when Daniela put down the hammer on the second bike loop, Julia was able to ride away from Caroline and still able to run a 3:09 marathon in the heat. Even if Julia wasn’t fully rested for Zell am See, she managed a respectable 6th place finish.

Last year her final preparation was at home in Germany, mostly on her own. She arrived two weeks before the race to get acclimatized to the heat and humidity. This year she prepared in a training camp in The Woodlands, Texas with a number of other athletes and coach Wolfram Bott.

What will be possible for her in Kona this year? “I hope to confirm my result from last year as I expect a lot tighter race for the Top 10 this year. A dream would be finishing on the podium.” A lot will depend on her swim – last year she struggled a bit in rough Kona conditions with swells and currents. In the non-wetsuit swim in Frankfurt she was able to stay with Caroline and Daniela – if she swims as well in Kona she may even end up in the bike front pack instead of a group close to Rinny as last year. She has run a sub-3 marathon before (Roth 2013), her recent runs were between 3:02 and 3:09 – other than Rinny she is one of the strongest runners among the Top10 contenders in the Kona heat. But the field in Kona is so close that even a good race can result in almost anything between a 3rd and 15th place for Julia.

(Photo: Julia “flying” on the run in 70.3 Champs, Credit: Skinfit International)

This is an excerpt from my free “Kona Rating Report” – 150+ pages with tons of information about the Kona Pro races!

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