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Ironman Cozumel 2013 – Analyzing Results

Race Conditions

The main influence on the Cozumel times was the swim: The course was changed to be safer after high waves in the days before the race, however that also meant that the course was shortened to 3.1k (1.9 miles). Of course, this resulted in pretty quick times (adjustment of 13:45). But even though the swim was shorter, the bike and run times were pretty normal. (My interpretation is that the swim must still have been pretty taxing.) This is quite different from what I’ve seen in Melbourne swim (where the swim was significantly shortened to 1.5k), and at first I thought that I’d include the Cozumel times in my ratings. But a closer analysis showed some weird effects: For example, Rachel’s winning time would have been a better performance than her 2nd place in Kona. So I’ve decided to list the Cozumel results, but not include them in my ratings.

Male Race Results

Tyler Butterfield and Eneko Llanos had good races after Kona, pretty much making sure that they re-qualify for Kona:

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected
1 Michael Weiss AUT 00:36:54 04:22:20 02:51:34 07:55:23 -22:07
2 Tyler Butterfield BMU 00:34:12 04:35:14 02:49:48 08:02:42 -15:37
3 Eneko Llanos ESP 00:34:19 04:34:40 02:52:38 08:05:21 -02:43
4 Marek Jaskolka POL 00:34:14 04:46:16 02:49:52 08:13:29 -20:50
5 Nils Frommhold GER 00:32:53 05:11:36 03:07:38 08:20:16 22:12
6 Justin Daerr USA 08:27:11 -06:34
7 Peru Alfaro ESP 05:15:27 03:12:22 08:29:04 n/a
8 Fabio Carvalho BRA 00:34:11 04:59:53 02:53:11 08:31:12 -34:16
9 Anton Blokhin UKR 00:34:15 04:40:21 03:15:50 08:34:06 03:54
10 Todd Skipworth AUS 00:32:49 05:13:29 03:21:57 08:36:58 -02:22
11 Bruno Clerbout BEL 00:36:54 04:56:54 03:03:35 08:40:58 -02:14
12 AJ Baucco USA 00:36:48 04:57:03 03:05:48 08:43:06 -02:06
13 Thiago Vinhal BRA 00:34:22 04:58:47 03:05:55 08:43:51 -02:32
14 Olivier Cardoen BEL 00:37:36 04:45:47 03:24:24 08:51:36 -13:03
15 Andres Castillo COL 00:34:03 04:59:38 03:21:27 08:58:45 08:16
16 Allan Villanueva MEX 05:05:48 03:10:21 08:59:22 -05:32
17 Aubrey Aldy USA 05:11:23 03:19:55 09:18:53 -22:33
18 Ezequiel Morales ARG 00:37:53 05:01:59 03:32:12 09:20:06 39:28
19 Sergio Quezada MEX 00:34:22 04:59:04 03:44:16 09:22:52 -29:23
20 Jozef Vrabel SVK 00:38:01 05:17:27 03:39:09 09:39:29 12:21
21 Reinaldo Oliveira BRA 00:40:36 05:14:21 03:38:46 09:40:23 -27:05
22 Ivan Tejero Vazquez ESP 00:34:17 04:53:52 04:14:36 09:47:28 11:05
23 Peter Kotland USA 00:38:07 05:06:32 04:09:18 09:58:46 14:53

Female Race Results

Rachel Joyce closed the year with another win, while Jessie Donavan ran through most of the field for second. Amanda Stevens was close to the for most of the day and held on to the final osmium spot:

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected
1 Rachel Joyce GBR 00:36:59 05:03:41 03:07:10 08:52:28 -07:11
2 Jessie Donavan USA 00:44:46 05:00:35 03:12:02 09:01:12 -17:48
3 Amanda Stevens USA 00:34:17 05:06:18 03:21:47 09:06:40 -16:18
4 Celine Schaerer SUI 00:34:18 05:17:21 03:16:33 09:12:40 08:48
5 Bree Wee USA 00:38:15 05:13:45 03:19:55 09:16:26 -18:22
6 Ashley Clifford USA 00:37:11 05:23:46 03:13:44 09:19:15 -03:41
7 Saleta Castro ESP 05:21:06 03:14:32 09:19:32 -38:55
8 Jackie Arendt USA 00:37:22 05:14:21 03:31:13 09:27:05 -10:14
9 Monique Grossrieder SUI 05:16:35 03:24:17 09:29:57 -28:21
10 Malaika Homo USA 00:38:07 05:14:09 03:37:07 09:33:57 -05:17
11 Amy Javens USA 00:49:21 05:10:09 03:31:49 09:36:08 n/a
12 Astrid Ganzow GER 05:09:09 03:47:59 09:44:03 n/a
13 Anne Basso FRA 05:25:56 03:36:33 09:47:10 -08:25
14 Jocelyn Cornman USA 00:42:42 05:40:09 03:21:55 09:49:51 n/a
15 Kristina Wiegand GER 00:44:09 05:39:41 03:24:53 09:53:39 -33:07
16 Tami Ritchie USA 00:37:01 05:35:40 03:57:58 10:16:04 -10:40
17 Jennifer Lentzke CAN 00:49:14 05:29:30 03:55:51 10:20:09 -37:57
18 Steffi Steinberg GER 00:50:06 06:01:13 03:51:22 10:46:49 38:25

Ironman Western Australia 2013 (Dec 8th) – Predictions

Update (Nov 26th): Lucie Zelenkova Reed announced on Twitter that she decided to pull out of the race. 

Update (Dec 6th): Martin Jensen is also not starting (more details on his blog).

Update (Dec 7th): Ironman has posted a start list after registration, and I have updated my tables accordingly. Good luck to everyone racing!

With Western Australia, the last Ironman race for 2013 is coming up. After this race, we’ll have a pretty long break in Kona qualifying races until Ironman New Zealand in March.

Previous Year’s TOP 3

(An earlier version of this post listed the 2011 results with winners Timo Bracht and Michelle Bremer.)

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Jimmy Johnsen DEN 00:51:51 04:38:38 02:54:42 08:29:06
2 Horst Reichel GER 00:48:50 04:39:52 03:01:50 08:34:49
3 Matty White AUS 00:51:49 04:38:29 03:03:57 08:38:05

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Britta Martin NZL 01:02:13 05:00:11 03:06:10 09:13:00
2 Rebekah Keat AUS 00:53:58 05:03:44 03:11:57 09:14:39
3 Rebecca Hoschke AUS 01:02:44 05:03:28 03:09:26 09:19:48

Course Records

All the course records are pretty old – this may be a result of some course changes, but it also shows the decline in status of the WA race.

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:03:55 Jason Shortis 2006-12-03
Swim overall 00:44:42 Pete Jacobs 2007-12-01
Bike overall 04:18:07 Mitchell Anderson 2006-12-03
Run overall 02:43:48 Robert Thomas 2007-12-01
Total female 08:59:24 Gina Ferguson 2008-12-07
Swim female 00:48:25 Tereza Macel 2007-12-01
Bike female 04:50:49 Lisbeth Kristensen 2006-12-03
Run female 03:05:04 Charlotte Paul 2007-12-01

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Western Australia is 12:27.

Race Adjustments for IM Western Australia

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Athletes Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2005 02:47 -03:17 01:43 -02:48 20 02:47 -03:17 01:43 -02:48
2006 15:44 00:29 14:13 03:15 25 09:16 -01:24 07:58 00:13
2007 24:38 00:39 13:44 05:23 37 14:23 -00:43 09:53 01:56
2008 17:32 -00:12 15:00 01:35 29 15:10 -00:35 11:10 01:51
2009 15:52 01:19 14:00 -01:28 19 15:19 -00:12 11:44 01:11
2010 06:47 00:07 09:52 05:01 21 13:53 -00:09 11:25 01:49
2011 03:22 -00:22 08:07 01:02 25 12:23 -00:11 10:57 01:43
2012 12:54 -01:32 08:24 04:47 23 12:27 -00:21 10:38 02:06

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Western Australia has 2000 KPR points for the winner. It has a total prize purse of 40k$.

Male Race Participants

ARaelertBikeHorizUpperTorso Dellow3 4After the demise of the P-1000 races, WA continues to offer 2000 KPR points for the winner but increased the prize purse from 25k to 40k. The race is a good opportunity to get some early qualifying points, probably better than in the crowded North American races.

With Andreas Raelert and David Dellow there are two world class athletes on the start list that had disappointing Kona 2013 results (DNF for Andreas, DNS for David):

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating Rank
1 1 Andreas Raelert GER 08:04:35 08:16:01 00:48:17 04:39:04 02:47:59 1
2 7 David Dellow AUS 08:14:52 08:26:33 00:47:04 04:40:25 02:57:38 11
3 20 Jeremy Jurkiewicz FRA 08:22:32 08:34:24 00:47:12 04:49:51 02:55:41 25
4 6 Martin Jensen DEN 08:24:45 08:36:40 00:48:24 04:38:09 02:56:00 33
5 10 Courtney Ogden AUS 08:30:01 08:42:03 00:50:22 04:48:18 02:59:07 44
6 2 Jimmy Johnsen DEN 08:30:41 08:42:44 00:50:20 04:50:25 02:57:45 49
7 24 Eduardo Sturla ARG 08:35:40 08:47:50 00:51:49 04:45:45 03:07:01 71
8 3 Luke Bell AUS 08:36:02 08:48:13 00:47:50 04:41:18 03:16:35 74
9 15 Michael Davidson ZAF 08:40:44 08:53:01 00:53:29 04:53:12 03:05:06 89
10 8 Jason Shortis AUS 08:43:20 08:55:41 00:53:59 04:51:11 03:02:10 99
11 4 Matty White AUS 08:43:59 08:56:21 00:51:03 04:48:39 03:13:04 105
12 25 Markus Thomschke GER 08:44:35 08:56:58 00:53:53 04:45:11 03:12:48 109
13 18 Todd Israel AUS 08:49:54 09:02:24 00:49:57 04:55:04 03:14:19 139
14 9 Joshua Rix AUS 08:53:02 09:05:37 00:49:41 04:44:53 03:27:52 146
15 5 Leon Griffin AUS 08:56:11 09:08:50 00:53:18 04:53:18 03:32:53 158
16 12 Johan Borg AUS 08:58:34 09:11:17 00:54:39 04:55:15 03:17:50 166
17 14 Guy Crawford AUS 09:01:44 09:14:31 00:48:57 04:46:25 03:38:40 174
18 16 Paul Hawkins GBR 09:07:53 09:20:49 00:58:32 05:28:49 03:20:17 192
19 17 Kodo Hiramatsu JPN 09:31:33 09:45:02 unrated unrated unrated 276
19 Darren Jenkins USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a
13 Matt Burton AUS n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a
26 Benjamin Williams USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a
11 Matt Bailey AUS n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a
23 Peter Robertson AUS n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a
22 Alex Reithmeier AUS n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a
21 Timothy Molesworth AUS n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a

Female Race Participants

While there are clear favorites in the men’s race, it’s hard to pick a front-runner in the women’s race: There are at least six athletes with very similar ratings and different strengths, and with Bree Wee and Kate Bevilaqua two more Ironman winners.

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating Rank
1 36 Elizabeth Lyles USA 09:22:40 09:35:57 00:58:25 05:22:30 03:09:31 27
2 44 Mareen Hufe GER 09:24:19 09:37:38 01:00:44 05:07:42 03:25:42 32
3 46 Lucie Reed CZE 09:25:31 09:38:52 00:50:31 05:17:35 03:27:56 36
4 45 Rebecca Preston AUS 09:27:16 09:40:39 00:55:32 05:21:11 03:16:47 44
5 31 Rebecca Hoschke AUS 09:29:21 09:42:47 01:00:40 05:16:06 03:21:06 46
6 34 Michelle Bremer NZL 09:29:28 09:42:54 00:57:14 05:17:01 03:27:18 47
7 32 Bree Wee USA 09:35:26 09:49:01 00:53:56 05:17:40 03:30:49 56
8 33 Kate Bevilaqua AUS 09:43:43 09:57:30 00:56:17 05:21:16 03:35:15 73
9 43 Julia Grant NZL 09:49:07 10:03:01 00:57:49 05:28:26 03:27:20 82
10 37 Kat Baker AUS 09:49:30 10:03:25 00:55:08 05:21:38 03:42:20 84
11 38 Melanie Burke NZL 09:58:14 10:12:21 01:10:56 05:26:49 03:30:59 102
12 35 Lisa Marangon AUS 09:59:10 10:13:19 00:54:50 05:22:10 03:42:43 105
13 42 Erin Furness NZL 10:10:32 10:24:57 01:03:27 05:32:06 03:35:23 121
41 Andrea Forrest AUS n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a
40 Dimity-Lee Duke AUS n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a
39 Michelle Duffield AUS n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

  • Andreas Raelert: 54% (1-1)
  • David Dellow: 17% (5-1)
  • Courtney Ogden: 10% (9-1)
  • Luke Bell: 7% (14-1)
  • Martin Jensen: 3% (32-1)
  • Matty White: 3% (37-1)
  • Jeremy Jurkiewicz: 2% (43-1)
  • Jason Shortis: 2% (55-1)

Female Race Participants

  • Lucie Reed: 26% (3-1)
  • Michelle Bremer: 22% (4-1)
  • Rebecca Preston: 19% (4-1)
  • Elizabeth Lyles: 10% (9-1)
  • Kate Bevilaqua: 9% (10-1)
  • Mareen Hufe: 9% (10-1)
  • Rebecca Hoschke: 5% (21-1)

Photo Credits: Jay Prasuhn (2)

Q & A with Thomas Gerlach

Thomas Gerlach has grown up in Wisconsin (guess his favorite Ironman race!) and is now training a lot in Tucson, Arizona. He’s been racing Pro since October 2011 season. He opens up on his blog about his training and prolific racing, and is pretty active on Social Media as well. He races almost every weekend on all distances. Here is a table of his professional Ironman races:

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Arizona 2011-11-19 00:57:04 04:43:37 03:12:27 08:57:00 09:11:26 09:11:26 27
IM St. George 2012-04-29 00:59:19 05:33:54 03:12:14 09:49:00 08:59:36 09:05:08 4
IM Louisville 2012-08-26 00:56:19 04:39:52 03:21:33 09:02:42 09:07:56 09:06:10 3
IM Wisconsin 2012-09-09 00:54:42 04:45:21 03:12:19 08:58:20 08:53:49 09:02:49 6
IM Florida 2012-11-03 00:57:45 04:15:57 03:14:54 08:33:26 08:49:05 08:59:47 11
IM Arizona 2012-11-18 00:54:29 04:28:54 03:08:49 08:36:05 08:44:37 08:57:01 10
IM Los Cabos 2013-03-17 00:58:30 04:41:51 03:03:02 08:47:46 08:42:29 08:54:35 7
IM Coeur d’Alene 2013-06-23 00:58:04 04:47:31 03:10:35 09:00:02 09:02:13 08:55:45 7
IM Louisville 2013-08-25 00:51:52 04:36:28 03:07:12 08:41:11 08:50:39 08:55:03 3
IM Hawaii 2013-10-12 01:00:02 04:49:53 03:33:26 09:28:02 09:28:48 08:59:17 39
IM Arizona 2013-11-17 00:53:49 04:20:35 03:07:01 08:25:01 08:41:53 08:57:18 12

He is now ranked 57th on my ratings. He qualified for Kona 2013 in July, his 3.800 points (at that time) were enough for a 42nd place in the KPR ranking and the second to last qualifying spot. The changes in the KPR for 2014 bring a new points allocation that favor the top 3 finishers, and with his 2013 results he would have dropped beyond #100. He recently finished Ironman Arizona with a PR of 8:25:01, „only“ good enough for a 12th place. I was interested in his perspective on racing Kona as a Pro, his thoughts on the KPR system and his plans for the next qualifying cycle, and he was kind enough to answer my questions.


Thomas Bike

Q: After you qualified for Kona this year, why did you decide to race there, even if it ends up mostly being a „vacation with a race“?

A: I raced this year at Kona because it was just too much of honor not to race there, but I never really made it a season goal to qualify, it just kind of happened. I had many friends whose only goal was just to get there. However, the days of old are over. There are guys who are better than they were 4 years ago and went under the old system and now they have no chance of making it back today. The system is changing again for 2014. I think I can still get back there but I’m not setting my season up around it. Kona is a special race, and it takes a certain type of athlete to do well there.

Q: Earning some prize money was probably unrealistic for you, so is there some compensation from sponsors or other benefits outside of prize money?

There is compensation for many of the athletes and there was a small amount that I received by going but it was nowhere close to the cost of the trip. Thankfully fellow pro Bryan Rhodes helped me secure a wonderful homestay which helped defer some costs. I have to thank Katie and Paul Burke for welcoming me into their home. I always encourage people to homestay athletes. It really helps us out, especially at venues where scarcity of lodging really drives up the overall cost. Kona is definitely one of those places.

I would like to thank Trisports2XU, and Atomic for offering additional support in helping me race in Kona. And I wouldn’t want to forget Cobb Cycling and Powerbar who were extremely supportive in the 2013 season.

Overall this sport is tough and almost every athlete could do a better job with sponsorship in general but you have to decide at what cost to your own development as an athlete. For Americans it seems like sponsorship can be really hard to come by. I know some athletes who are the top athlete from their country and it seems to be that funding seems to be less of an issue for them. I will say that Kona is by far the biggest event in our sport. Anyone that has been over there understands this but there are a lot of opportunities to build your own brand over in Kona and that is worth a lot.

Q: The way the qualifying system for Kona is set up, it seems to “force” athletes to focus on racing WTC races. What are your thoughts on this?

A: I’m not sure it is necessarily to “force” athletes to race. There is always a lot of talk about that but it is not like WTC is the only game in town. Truthfully I don’t understand why so many pros travel half way across the world to end up four thousand dollars in the hole to race – that isn’t sustainable unless you have sponsors just throwing money at these athletes. In my opinion these athletes should stay closer to home and that is why I race close to home.

Thomas Run

I guess I look at it differently than most pros, I think many pros are dreamers, and they are not doing what it takes to make it into a viable career choice. Personally I am a fan of the KPR in general. I think as athletes we should be out there racing – it seems to be that some of the big dogs have a problem with it. I see it as a hunger issue, they want to collect checks and don’t have the hunger to go out and race. Regardless this year it is changing and the new system rewards big performances at big races. I’m sure it will be a learning process again this year.

Q: Would you like to be able to race Rev3s, Challenge races and money races such as Abu Dhabi, MetaMan etc. or are you okay to just race WTC races?

In 2012, I made a lot more from the Leadman events than WTC races. This year I have just done the WTC races, but it is a tiny amount. After all it was just $1,500 from a 7th place finish at Ironman Los Cabos, $1,500 from 7th at Ironman Coeur D’Alene, and $1,750 from Ironman Louisville. Bonuses and exposure are pretty small in general as well, and then there is all the costs. This isn’t a sustainable model for me, but yet I would say my income in the sport was greater than 95% of the other pros out there. I also keep expenses down compared to my peers which I don’t think they really focus on. The old saying “it takes money to make money is” is probably one of the worst sayings in the sport among my peers. They could focus on events closer to home and travel less but yet they end up at the end of the year 25K in the hole. I’m not sure how they make it work but they do.

As for more diversity in the race series, I’ll always do the races that make the most sense for me. I like to pick races that I can do well at – it helps on financial level, a confidence level, and for growing as an athlete in general. Races I can drive to are important and avoiding things like plane tickets and bike fees make a big difference.

Q: Based on how you qualified in 2013 and some of the statement you’ve made, you don’t seem to have a problem with racing a lot to qualify? Do you feel this impacts your chances of racing well in Kona?

A: It absolutely affects my ability to race well, but if we are all in the same boat we all have the same handicap. I have raced a lot in the past to gain experience and it blows my mind that there are pro athletes out there who have never even won a race, not even their local sprint. I mean, if you don’t have experience in all kinds of situations, what are your chances of making the right move when it really counts? With that being said I have gained a lot of experience, it doesn’t mean there isn’t more to gain, but I’m focusing on more quality going forward.

Thomas Finish IMAZ

Q: What’s your opinion on „validating“ and the amount of points for Kona?

A: I don’t think validating should be an option. It creates an unfair advantage in my eyes and I’m all about fairness. At the very least I think a “validation” should require an athlete to finish with 8% of the finisher’s time. The Kona points is tougher, you are racing so you should get some points but I’m not sure on the allocation.

Q: What changes would you like to see for the KPR?

A: I think the old KPR system was better, it rewarded hard work. If the guys in the trenches want to do the work then reward them. It also acts as a platform for development and not a barrier to entry. The way you have it now it is weighted so far to the top-3 that I think it will result in even more DNFs, after all, if there are no points and no monies then it is better to save it for the next day. We only have so many performances to dig deep, and I see so many guys wasting them on the 11th place finish. They come across the line and collapse, when I think it would be better off for the longevity just to finish strong.

Q: Do you think WTC should give out some Kona “wildcards” (e.g. for the Brownlees, Javier Gomez, or Lisa Norden) or should everyone go through the qualifying system?

A: No wildcards, again it creates an uneven playing field. I understand the desire to get some of these athletes to go long, but not at the expense of other athletes working hard.

Q: With the recent changes to the KPR system for 2014 and the new points allocation favoring the top 3 finishers, it seems that race 7 IMs and get enough points probably won’t work any longer. What’s your strategy to qualify for 2014?

A: Ultimately I’m not putting a big red circle over that event in 2014, nor did I in 2013. If it happens, it happens, but I’m not chasing it. The 2014 race schedule isn’t set but I’ll probably race a few Ironmans. I know what I need to work on and I’ll be ready to take another step up next year. If I make it up that next step then I’ll be in a good position to earn some points and requalify.

Thomas, thank you for your willingness to answer my questions and your honest answers. I hope that you’ll continue to develop as an athlete, and that qualifying for Kona will be something that can just „happen“ for you with a few great results. All the best for your 2014 racing season!

Photo Credits: Eric Willis, Nick Morales (2, from Trijuice)

Ironman Cozumel 2013 (Dec 1st) – Predictions

Update (Nov 29th): A few days before the race, there are a few athletes that are still on the list but won’t race. I’ve crossed out those that I’m aware of: Thomas Gerlach (said on his blog that he’ll visit family over Thanksgiving), Eimear Mullan (replied to me on Twitter: “Please shoot me if I race Cozumel!”) and Matthias Hecht (also on Twitter: “I will be back at IM Melbourne. Need a bit more time.”). I’m sure there will be a few more changes, please let me know if you have any newer information.

Previous Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Ivan Rana ESP 00:50:27 04:37:16 02:44:05 08:15:07
2 Bas Diederen NED 00:50:17 04:37:39 02:51:57 08:22:55
3 Bert Jammaer BEL 00:52:08 04:36:04 02:53:18 08:24:51

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Mary Beth Ellis USA 00:54:36 05:05:26 03:11:17 09:15:38
2 Sophie De Groote BEL 01:04:59 04:57:01 03:09:47 09:15:45
3 Sonja Tajsich GER 01:13:55 05:00:15 03:02:40 09:21:30

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:15:07 Ivan Rana 2012-11-25
Swim overall 00:44:39 Uzziel Valderrabano 2009-11-29
Swim overall 00:44:18 Andres Castillo 2009-11-29
Bike overall 04:19:17 Michael Lovato 2011-11-27
Run overall 02:44:05 Ivan Rana 2012-11-25
Total female 09:07:08 Yvonne Van Vlerken 2010-11-28
Swim female 00:46:39 Bree Wee 2009-11-29
Bike female 04:45:20 Simone Braendli 2011-11-27
Run female 03:02:39 Beth Gerdes 2012-11-25

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Cozumel is 07:45.

Race Adjustments for IM Cozumel

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Athletes Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2009 07:45 06:32 -01:57 -01:39 26 07:45 06:32 -01:57 -01:39
2010 08:07 00:59 12:55 -03:32 30 07:56 03:45 05:29 -02:36
2011 09:29 01:52 12:33 02:39 40 08:27 03:07 07:50 -00:51
2012 05:39 -04:26 06:58 00:35 55 07:45 01:14 07:37 -00:29

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Cozumel has 2000 KPR points for the winner. It has a total prize purse of 75k$.

Male Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating Rank
1 23 Nils Frommhold GER 08:04:09 08:11:12 00:46:38 04:37:00 02:50:32 (1)
2 1 Eneko Llanos ESP 08:13:22 08:20:33 00:47:42 04:36:51 02:52:25 2
3 75 Marino Vanhoenacker BEL 08:16:10 08:23:23 00:48:41 04:31:55 02:59:17 6
4 3 Tyler Butterfield BMU 08:20:52 08:28:10 00:49:18 04:41:23 02:57:38 14
5 12 Michael Weiss AUT 08:22:53 08:30:12 00:54:54 04:30:14 02:59:16 18
6 41 Mathias Hecht SUI 08:33:00 08:40:28 00:47:40 04:42:34 03:06:30 42
7 31 Anton Blokhin UKR 08:36:00 08:43:31 00:48:26 04:49:05 03:03:03 55
8 19 Ritchie Nicholls GBR 08:37:23 08:44:55 00:48:28 04:58:18 02:57:29 63
9 4 Justin Daerr USA 08:39:15 08:46:49 00:53:55 04:46:52 03:03:08 68
10 17 Marek Jaskolka POL 08:39:29 08:47:03 00:47:24 04:54:21 03:02:22 70
11 21 Todd Skipworth AUS 08:44:56 08:52:35 00:45:53 04:40:02 03:25:27 88
12 13 Trevor Delsaut FRA 08:45:29 08:53:08 00:54:42 04:51:32 03:01:54 90
13 33 Ezequiel Morales ARG 08:47:32 08:55:13 00:52:37 04:53:34 02:55:37 98
14 2 Bruno Clerbout BEL 08:48:52 08:56:34 00:51:02 04:58:54 03:01:46 108
15 39 Thomas Gerlach USA 08:49:50 08:57:33 00:54:54 04:44:50 03:14:40 112
16 22 Jonathan Shearon USA 08:49:56 08:57:39 00:53:40 04:46:22 03:15:04 114
17 14 AJ Baucco USA 08:51:04 08:58:48 00:52:37 04:50:48 03:12:28 123
18 32 Thiago Vinhal BRA 08:52:09 08:59:54 00:48:46 05:06:51 03:01:38 126
19 38 Christian Brader GER 08:52:29 09:00:14 00:56:26 04:52:48 03:10:29 128
20 76 Balazs Csoke HUN 08:53:28 09:01:14 00:48:08 04:51:42 03:18:36 133
21 11 Andres Castillo COL 08:55:36 09:03:24 00:47:41 04:52:38 03:20:44 147
22 74 Dan Mcintosh USA 08:58:38 09:06:29 00:52:02 04:52:51 03:13:16 154
23 5 Patrick Evoe USA 09:00:12 09:08:04 00:55:34 04:46:27 03:09:06 157
24 6 Leon Griffin AUS 09:01:02 09:08:55 00:53:18 04:53:17 03:32:17 161
25 25 Carlos Lopez diaz ESP 09:01:16 09:09:09 00:47:01 04:50:31 03:27:40 162
26 7 Sebastian Pedraza ITA 09:02:54 09:10:48 00:52:53 04:49:18 03:21:59 166
27 35 Allan Villanueva MEX 09:09:53 09:17:53 00:53:27 04:57:02 03:22:03 189
28 16 Olivier Cardoen BEL 09:10:21 09:18:22 00:54:56 04:52:21 03:24:36 189
29 43 Fabio Carvalho BRA 09:10:29 09:18:30 00:52:49 05:23:04 03:11:53 190
30 34 Adam O’Meara CAN 09:14:49 09:22:54 00:54:31 05:08:36 03:13:52 205
31 18 Craig Twigg GBR 09:27:07 09:35:22 00:52:13 04:55:50 03:41:54 243
32 27 Jose Valero ESP 09:30:12 09:38:30 01:00:48 05:07:00 03:27:13 257
33 29 Jozef Vrabel SVK 09:33:49 09:42:10 00:56:39 05:08:37 03:31:54 271
34 9 Logan Franks USA 09:38:07 09:46:32 01:02:10 05:08:08 03:26:18 287
35 28 Ivan Tejero Vazquez ESP 09:42:56 09:51:25 00:49:35 05:17:02 03:41:42 296
36 20 Simon Malo CAN 09:43:39 09:52:09 00:56:48 05:03:57 03:41:38 302
37 24 Daniel Soper USA 09:44:27 09:52:58 01:02:12 05:02:42 03:25:14 304
38 42 Aubrey Aldy USA 09:47:30 09:56:03 01:04:36 05:28:09 03:12:15 316
39 15 Peter Kotland USA 09:51:33 10:00:10 00:57:38 05:17:36 03:36:40 326
40 36 Sergio Quezada MEX 09:58:18 10:07:01 00:51:43 05:18:41 03:49:12 341
41 37 Reinaldo Oliveira BRA 10:13:30 10:22:26 01:00:00 05:21:01 03:52:09 381
42 8 Kevin Danahy USA 10:47:55 10:57:21 00:59:57 05:59:09 03:44:30 401
30 James Haycraft USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a
10 Gabriel Raff ARG n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a
26 Eduardo Crooke Gonzalez ESP n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a
40 Peru Alfaro ESP n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a

Female Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating Rank
1 44 Rachel Joyce GBR 09:05:22 09:13:18 00:51:02 05:06:09 03:12:58 3
2 72 Celine Schaerer SUI 09:09:59 09:17:59 00:47:39 05:09:44 03:19:47 7
3 45 Jessie Donavan USA 09:25:03 09:33:17 01:07:21 05:07:15 03:15:21 25
4 70 Tine Deckers BEL 09:25:12 09:33:26 00:57:39 05:08:39 03:21:06 26
5 48 Amanda Stevens USA 09:28:51 09:37:08 00:49:05 05:16:55 03:27:32 31
6 73 Ashley Clifford USA 09:29:09 09:37:26 00:53:53 05:29:26 03:12:25 33
7 47 Asa Lundstroem SWE 09:32:15 09:40:35 00:59:59 05:15:36 03:21:12 44
8 69 Eimear Mullan IRL 09:39:09 09:47:35 01:00:47 05:25:58 03:13:56 55
9 53 Edith Niederfriniger ITA 09:39:22 09:47:48 00:54:37 05:26:35 03:21:09 56
10 65 Sara Gross CAN 09:40:10 09:48:37 00:55:39 05:33:18 03:18:27 56
11 50 Bree Wee USA 09:40:35 09:49:02 00:53:56 05:17:43 03:30:52 57
12 66 Keiko Tanaka JAP 09:40:45 09:49:12 00:54:17 05:27:11 03:22:37 58
13 49 Jackie Arendt USA 09:43:31 09:52:01 00:55:17 05:28:24 03:20:56 62
14 67 Karen Thibodeau CAN 09:45:22 09:53:53 00:54:29 05:24:24 03:24:46 65
15 59 Malaika Homo USA 09:45:55 09:54:27 00:53:07 05:22:31 03:35:28 69
16 51 Svetlana Blazevic SCG 10:00:44 10:09:29 00:52:20 05:31:22 03:43:12 95
17 52 Anne Basso FRA 10:01:49 10:10:35 00:58:05 05:30:34 03:41:43 98
18 57 Monique Grossrieder SUI 10:03:46 10:12:33 01:04:44 05:34:16 03:27:28 104
19 64 Saleta Castro ESP 10:03:49 10:12:37 00:55:44 05:29:49 03:41:15 105
20 54 Steffi Steinberg GER 10:16:21 10:25:19 01:08:26 05:36:28 03:35:02 125
21 58 Tami Ritchie USA 10:35:10 10:44:25 00:52:02 06:06:59 03:44:40 134
22 61 Arrate Gonzalez ESP 10:44:20 10:53:43 01:08:18 05:56:04 03:46:16 137
23 55 Jennifer Lentzke CAN 11:04:06 11:13:46 01:12:39 05:45:22 03:46:56 142
24 60 Kristina Wiegand GER 11:31:54 11:41:58 01:07:24 06:21:38 04:16:31 144
62 Amy Javens USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a
71 Astrid Ganzow GER n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a
68 Lotty Harari PAN n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a
56 Julie Van Veelen CAN n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a
63 Jocelyn Cornman USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

The men’s field is a nice mix of „older established” athletes and „younger up-and-coming“ athletes, either coming off their Kona build (Eneko, Tyler) or gearing up again after a forced break (Marino, Nils and Mathias who were injured, Michael Weiss who served a doping ban). Nils Frommhold is the best rated athlete but has just one result (last year’s win at IM Arizona), therefore Eneko and Marino have to be considered the clear favorites:

  • Eneko Llanos: 31% (2-1)
  • Marino Vanhoenacker: 30% (2-1)
  • Nils Frommhold: 17% (5-1)
  • Tyler Butterfield: 9% (10-1)
  • Michael Weiss: 8% (12-1)
  • Mathias Hecht: 2% (45-1)

Female Race Participants

On the female side, Rachel Joyce has decided to race one more IM after Kona and even if she can’t be at the top of her game is the clear favorite. Behind her are a number of other athletes who’d love to snatch the win from her. The race dynamics could be very interesting, the two super-swimmers Amanda Stevens (coming off a DNF in Arizona) and Celine Schaerer (just one IM result, a 2nd place in Switzerland, but with a focused build for Cozumel) could break up the field very early.

  • Rachel Joyce: 59% (1-1)
  • Tine Deckers: 8% (11-1)
  • Amanda Stevens: 7% (13-1)
  • Ashley Clifford: 7% (14-1)
  • Celine Schaerer: 6% (16-1)
  • Jessie Donavan: 5% (18-1)
  • Asa Lundstroem: 3% (29-1)
  • Sara Gross: 2% (43-1)

Ironman Arizona 2013 – Analyzing Results

Race Conditions

Everything in Arizona was a little bit quicker than what is typical this year. Most of the quick times originate from a very fast bike (adjustment of 19:03, compared to a rating of less than 10 minutes). The impact of the new run course was not very big (run adjustment of 4:12 with a run rating of 1:54), so we have to assume that the conditions were just very good for a quick bike ride.

Male Race Results

Jordan Rapp quickly took control of the race on the bike, posting a new bike record (bettering Andy Starykowicz’ time from last year). It was quite unusual for his usual race plan to be the one being hunted down – but Victor Del Corral did just that, posting another fantastic marathon only two weeks after his 2:37 from Florida. Jens Petersen-Bach rounded out the podium.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected
1 Victor Del Corral ESP 00:54:03 04:20:11 02:43:58 08:02:00 -05:54
2 Jordan Rapp USA 00:52:45 04:14:44 02:54:54 08:06:13 -03:38
3 Jens Petersen-Bach DEN 00:52:10 04:22:23 02:49:39 08:07:53 -10:34
4 Denis Chevrot FRA 00:48:41 04:26:59 02:49:47 08:09:04 -04:29
5 Pedro Gomes POR 00:48:49 04:21:19 02:57:57 08:11:42 -14:04
6 Trevor Wurtele CAN 00:53:49 04:19:53 02:54:47 08:12:34 -33:27
7 Marc Duelsen GER 00:53:01 04:21:39 02:56:12 08:14:29 n/a
8 Christian Brader GER 00:56:49 04:25:22 02:52:38 08:18:44 -25:03
9 Matthew Russell USA 00:59:19 04:20:01 02:55:53 08:19:10 -15:54
10 Johann Ackermann GER 00:48:33 04:28:31 03:01:38 08:22:30 n/a
11 Jonathan Shearon USA 00:53:52 04:25:32 03:01:01 08:24:23 -20:24
12 Thomas Gerlach USA 00:53:49 04:20:35 03:07:01 08:25:01 -15:11
13 Ritchie Nicholls GBR 00:48:47 04:39:37 02:54:01 08:25:49 n/a
14 Dan Mcintosh USA 00:52:47 04:27:01 03:04:15 08:28:13 -29:08
15 Nicholas Ward Munoz GBR 00:54:04 04:36:11 02:53:35 08:28:21 -19:50
16 Nick Baldwin SEY 00:53:41 04:28:26 03:03:46 08:29:57 01:35
17 Jared Milam USA 00:53:46 04:33:29 02:59:08 08:30:22 -27:00
18 Matt Hanson USA 00:56:29 04:39:13 02:51:11 08:30:29 n/a
19 Joe Umphenour USA 00:48:32 04:31:49 03:07:50 08:33:04 04:06
20 Andrew Russell CAN 00:48:39 04:28:38 03:13:02 08:33:50 -05:13
21 Jozsef Major HUN 00:56:59 04:22:45 03:12:51 08:36:59 08:43
22 Ryan Cain CAN 00:55:34 04:37:06 03:02:05 08:38:42 -23:51
23 Matt Chrabot USA 00:48:36 04:30:42 03:16:51 08:39:50 n/a
24 Patrick Wheeler USA 00:56:54 04:42:28 02:58:05 08:43:09 -01:28
25 Matty Reed USA 00:48:36 04:33:16 03:21:34 08:47:16 19:30
26 Raymond Botelho USA 00:54:02 04:27:26 03:21:08 08:47:31 -42:54
27 Anthony Toth CAN 00:57:41 04:43:37 03:04:28 08:51:13 -17:33
28 Jordan Bryden CAN 00:49:05 04:53:06 03:10:11 08:56:27 -26:29
29 Jozef Vrabel SVK 00:53:44 04:42:44 03:25:13 09:05:36 -19:38
30 Luke Way CAN 00:59:08 04:41:47 03:21:34 09:07:44 -10:22
31 Stephen Kilshaw CAN 00:56:55 04:39:19 03:29:16 09:09:19 -06:51
32 Brendan Naef CAN 00:56:59 04:52:52 03:19:42 09:14:26 -52:00
33 Pierre-Yves Facomprez FRA 01:02:51 04:48:19 03:25:05 09:21:18 n/a
34 Lewis Elliot USA 00:54:15 04:41:53 03:41:08 09:21:42 08:20
35 Raul Furtado BRA 00:54:05 04:42:19 03:43:46 09:23:58 36:26
36 Erich Wegscheider GBR 00:56:56 05:07:56 03:21:25 09:32:42 21:20
37 Jon Woods NZL 00:58:35 04:47:16 03:44:41 09:34:36 05:51
38 Robbie Wade IRL 00:58:41 04:49:41 03:43:07 09:35:29 n/a
39 Heinrich Sickl AUT 00:59:15 04:42:29 03:54:31 09:40:24 11:40
40 Jim Lubinski USA 01:05:47 04:57:56 03:43:54 09:51:32 31:09
41 Timo Gronlund USA 01:00:24 05:09:38 03:37:06 09:52:25 n/a
42 Patrick Schuster USA 01:06:23 04:58:26 03:44:13 09:55:57 40:12
43 Richard Wygand BRA 01:06:54 04:59:16 03:45:19 09:57:44 -30:04
44 Jimi Minnema USA 01:03:42 05:07:18 03:44:34 10:00:55 n/a
45 Josh Seifarth CAN 00:53:41 04:50:34 04:16:16 10:05:33 n/a
46 Damian Hill 01:01:10 05:32:28 03:35:43 10:16:27 n/a
47 Jason Watson USA 00:59:42 05:18:00 04:01:46 10:24:55 -12:29
48 Jeff Tarkowski USA 00:58:58 05:09:01 05:42:20 11:56:35 n/a

Female Race Results

The race on the women’s side mirrored the men’s: Meredith Kessler was leading after the bike. She also posted a new bike record (improving on Chrissie’s time), but only held the record for a few minutes as Michelle Vesterby was another 2 1/2 minutes quicker. (It was a quick day, Sarah Piampiano was also under the old record.) Both Meredith and Michelle didn’t have a bad marathon, but it was quickly apparent that Julia Gajer had the best running legs and would probably run them down in the last miles. Julia posted the best run split and won by almost three minutes over Meredith who held off Michelle.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected
1 Julia Gajer GER 00:53:24 04:51:46 03:02:02 08:52:49 -14:40
2 Meredith Kessler USA 00:50:14 04:45:33 03:16:05 08:55:47 -10:58
3 Michelle Vesterby DEN 00:53:30 04:42:57 03:16:43 08:57:24 -09:44
4 Sarah Piampiano USA 01:02:48 04:46:23 03:12:49 09:05:57 -21:26
5 Asa Lundström SWE 00:59:46 04:55:30 03:12:47 09:12:20 -09:19
6 Eimear Mullan IRL 00:59:43 05:04:16 03:04:42 09:13:13 -18:12
7 Lisa Ribes USA 01:06:08 04:56:54 03:05:42 09:13:32 -08:36
8 Uli Bromme USA 01:02:50 04:52:28 03:15:13 09:15:00 -19:35
9 Beth Shutt USA 01:02:37 05:01:55 03:06:39 09:15:38 -29:05
10 Ariane Monticeli BRA 01:02:58 05:02:54 03:11:37 09:21:53 -25:44
11 Diana Riesler GER 00:59:56 04:55:16 03:25:46 09:25:05 10:40
12 Jessica Meyers USA 00:59:38 05:04:40 03:25:21 09:33:44 n/a
13 Miranda Tomenson CAN 00:57:27 05:01:20 03:35:56 09:38:52 n/a
14 Kristin Lie NOR 01:15:12 04:57:24 03:23:45 09:41:04 -01:07
15 Christine Fletcher CAN 00:59:33 05:03:53 03:36:16 09:45:21 -11:01
16 Trish Deim USA 01:05:35 04:58:04 03:37:30 09:45:58 -16:39
17 Tine Holst DEN 01:08:38 04:58:14 03:34:43 09:46:26 -03:12
18 Heleen Bij De Vaate NED 01:07:39 05:09:15 03:26:23 09:47:14 17:13
19 Kate Bruck USA 01:06:21 05:17:37 03:20:17 09:49:41 n/a
20 Erin Young USA 00:59:40 05:11:48 03:34:27 09:53:42 -15:00
21 Kristyn Tobey BMU 01:07:37 05:05:59 03:39:00 09:56:41 -13:02
22 Steffi Steinberg GER 01:08:47 05:13:48 03:31:42 09:58:45 -08:12
23 Amy Forshaw GBR 01:06:37 05:10:31 03:38:27 10:01:18 -08:57
24 Katja Konschak GER 00:53:27 05:09:56 04:08:33 10:17:31 50:05
25 Lisa Mueller USA 01:05:34 05:13:44 03:53:15 10:18:12 n/a
26 Morgan Chaffin USA 00:59:51 05:18:44 04:38:06 11:03:25 n/a
27 Sarah Baker CAN 01:04:47 05:25:23 04:58:27 11:32:38 1:14:19
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