Skip to content

Data on Planning your Season for best Kona Performance

Before Kona, there was a lot of speculation about Caroline Steffen’s prep which included a full Ironman-distance race just six weeks before Kona. Now that the race is over, I have a closer look at some of the data on the impact of season planning for performance in Kona.

Of course this analysis has some limitations:

  • There are not too many data points – after all, we only had 85 pro athletes on the start line in Kona.
  • Each athlete recovers at a different rate, the analysis can only be a general guideline that has to be adapted for each athlete.
  • My data and analysis is limited to the Pros, the picture could be different for age groupers.

With these caveats out of the way, let’s have a look at the data. I’ll be showing graphs of athletes Kona performance. The Kona performance is the time difference (in minutes) between their Rating (based on all their previous results) and their normalized Kona finish time, after accounting for the course and conditions on race day. A „normal“ day would produce a Kona performance of 0, performances larger than 0 mean that the athlete performed better than expected, negative numbers indicate that things didn’t go quite as well.

Last IM before Kona

The first graph show the athletes Kona performance in relation to the time that each athlete took between racing his/her last Ironman-distance race before Kona:

LastIM

The month names indicate when the last IM-distance race was, the light blue line shows the median Kona performances, and the thicker blue line a „best fit“ for the data.

Here’s the raw data behind this graph:

Month Athletes DNFs DNF % Median Performance
November 5 1 20% 3:12 (not shown)
March 8 2 25% 2:20
April 1 0 0 (not shown)
May 6 0 0 9:42
June 13 4 31% 1:52
July 26 6 23% -1:52
August 22 5 23% -2:39
September 4 0 0 -12:00

There are a few interesting observations in this data:

  • The time since the last IM does not seem to have a discernible influence on the DNF rate.
  • In order to deliver the best Kona performance, there seems to be a sweet-spot in May. (But if we included the November data, we would end up with a relatively „flat“ graph before May. Hard to tell if there is much of a difference with so few data points.)
  • After May, the less time there is before Kona, the more likely it is to have a bad result. The 2013 data doesn’t show much of a difference between July and August.
I’ve posted a similar analysis in 2011, with very similar observations.

Number of IMs before Kona

There is another way to look at the Kona performance: in relation to the number of IMs athletes have raced before Kona:

NoofRaces

Again, the light line with the data points show the actual data, and the darker line a best fit. (6 is actually a category representing 6 or more races. It won’t be a surprise that the athlete with the most was Peter Vabrousek with 11 IM-distance races between Kona 2012 and 2013.)

Again, the main information is relatively obvious:

  • The more IM races you race, the more you’ll probably struggle in Kona.
  • The ideal number of long distance races (outside of Kona) seems to be either one or two.

Implications

I think that there are a few implications for athletes that want to focus on their Kona performance:

  • Avoid long-distance races close to Kona. (It’s just one data point, but I would think that Caroline is wondering what would have happened if she didn’t race MetaMan.)
  • Try to qualify at the end of July if possible. (The best case scenario is probably Jordan’s 2012 season: Qualify late, then have a conservative Kona race to get some good points for the next season.)
  • Make a decision whether to focus on Kona or one of the European and North American championships (Frankfurt in July, Mont Tremblant in August). As far as I know, with the exception of Chrissie Wellington we’ve never had the same athlete win both in Frankfurt and Kona.
  • If you have enough points, just race an Ironman either in November („just validate strategy“) or in April/May, then have a focused Kona build. (This seems to be the strategy that Rinny feels very comfortable with.)

Unfortunately, this is a bit in conflict with the way WTC has set up the KPR system – late season big races, and the hectic August qualifying. In my opinion, this is not the best way to set up athletes for great Kona performances.

Dirk Bockel – Q&A after Kona 2013

Dirk Bockel is the best known triathlete from Luxemburg. For some background on his Ironman career so far, check out my post „Dirk Bockel in Numbers“. This year, he was going to Kona with great hopes after winning Roth in 7:52, but didn’t finish the race in Kona. He was kind enough to answer some of my questions about his race and his future plans.

Dirk Run

Thorsten: Dirk, what lead to your DNF in Kona?

Dirk: It was a bit of a disaster. I really don’t know how it happened. There are so many rumours that some of the drink we got on the course might have gone bad. I have never thrown up in a race before, and it happened to some other athletes as well. So the fact is that something happened on the course which was outside of my control. Until that point I was having a great race but with the stomach cramps and throwing up I had to climb into an ambulance. I’m still upset about that.

T: In the last years, you already had a lot of KPR points after Kona. Basically you just had to complete an Ironman to get your Kona slot which you did by winning in Regensburg in 2012 and by finishing Cozumel for 2013. 

D: If you just have to validate, it’s relatively easy. But you still have to finish an Ironman and it’s a long day! Cozumel was one of those things that shouldn’t happen. I got injured during the race, had to stop 20 minutes and tortured myself to just walk to the finish line to qualify. I’m not sure if this is the best qualification system, but those are the rules. If you want to race Kona, you have to play by the rules that WTC makes.

T: This year, you have to find a way to qualify starting with no points after Kona. Have you decided how to approach the 2014 season?

D: I haven’t made up my mind whether I continue to race Hawaii and do the qualification and all that comes with it, or whether I do races like Abu Dhabi and Challenge Roth. Both options are there, and both options are pretty extreme. I don’t really see the point in qualifying over the whole year and to basically race for very low dollars just trying to get points. As a professional, you also have to look at some of the money races in order to make a living.

T: What do you think your season would have to look in order to be able to qualify for Kona?

D: There are not too many options. It doesn’t really make sense to race now – it’s offseason and I wouldn’t be in good shape. Even if I forced myself to race, I could really underperform and then not get too many points. I could wait till next year and then do one of the regional championships like Melbourne or Frankfurt. Even winning a normal Ironman just gives you 2.000 points and you roughly need 3.000 points. Plus you have race obligations with your sponsors and then you still have to do Kona! In our sport you just can’t race that much. People looking for good sponsorship deals might have to do that, but it’s not the smartest thing. It’s not good for your body and for your own future.

T: So qualifying for Kona and racing well in October seems very hard to do.

D: Yes, Kona is such a special race. You have to sacrifice a lot of your season to perform well in Hawaii. But your whole season has to be planned around qualifying. It’s always at least one Ironman so you never know what happens. Usually one Ironman is not enough, so you have to race another one. Racing three or four 70.3s instead is also not a solution – it’s a lot of travelling, a lot of time investment and financial investment. You don’t get much out of it, so it’s a win-loose situation. The company WTC wins, and the athletes have to race a lot to qualify. They can’t properly prepare for a peak performance. Then you have to race Hawaii but you’re already tired from racing all year to get the points.

T: Do you think there should be changes in the KPR to allow athletes to focus on Kona?

D: As an athlete, I don’t make the rules, but I definitely want to give constructive feedback to get a better system. I think that if you post certain times, for example sub-8 hours, you should be qualified for Hawaii.  It would be great to score Kona points in non-WTC races. Also, if you medal at the ITU Long Distance World Championships or had a TOP 10 in Kona, you should be qualified without the need to validate. The reason for their recent changes to the KPR was to discourage athletes from racing six or seven Ironman races just to qualify without a chance for a top spot in Hawaii after so many races.

T: But there are still a lot of Pros racing in the KPR system.

D: If you want to qualify for Kona, WTC more or less binds athletes to their events. There are also athletes that have a deal with WTC to get paid to do a certain number of races. That’s a good thing but not too many people know about that. In terms of transparency both for the athlete and the company, everybody should know who is supported by WTC.

Some athletes don’t have great sponsorships that allow them to focus on Kona, they are looking for other options. I think I have only counted 20 athletes returning to the Kona, it was upsetting to see less and less people being there. Maybe Challenge comes up with their own „World Championship“.

T: Coming back to your 2014 season, will it be possible for you to try to qualify and also race Challenge Roth in the summer?

D: If I have to chase Kona points, I’ll have to sacrifice Roth which would be terrible. I really want to defend my title. It was the nicest race by far that I’ve done in 25 years of my triathlon career. It would be a pity to sacrifice that just to go to Kona.

I’ll probably start my season around March, either in Abu Dhabi or Melbourne, in the summer it’s either Roth or Frankfurt. At the end of the year it’s a choice between another Challenge long distance race or World Championships in Kona again.

I’m really torn apart sitting between two chairs, and I have to make a decision pretty soon.

T: You mentioned that your deal with Leopard Trek ends in 2013. How is your financial situation for 2014?

D: I’m blessed with new sponsors for the next few years, and will announce them in the very near future. They’ll probably make my decision a bit easier.

Dirk, thank you very much for your open answers. All the best for your 2014 season! I hope that you can look back a year from now and say you’ve made a good decision.

Dirk Bockel in Numbers

Dirk Bockel is the best known triathlete from Luxembourg. I his home country, he is approaching the popularity of the famous cycling brothers Andy and Fränk Schleck. After his DNF in Kona this year, he is facing a difficult decision about his 2014 plans. I’ve had a chat with him about his choices and will post about it soon. But first I’d like to introduce Dirk with one of my “Numbers Profiles” and give some background on his Ironman career so far.

Overview

The first time I noticed Dirk was when he was leading the Olympic Triathlon race in Beijing 2008 for a long time on the bike and on the run, eventually finishing 25th. He then switched to long distance racing, here is a table of his Ironman races:

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Normalised Rating Rank in Race
IM New Zealand 2009-03-07 00:47:49 04:37:38 02:57:03 08:27:12 08:34:36 08:34:36 3
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 00:50:50 04:37:29 02:57:42 08:29:55 08:18:43 08:25:59 7
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 00:51:12 04:35:48 02:52:02 08:22:59 08:22:46 08:24:38 8
IM Florida 2010-11-06 00:46:50 04:37:33 02:51:56 08:21:23 08:32:11 08:26:54 3
IM Hawaii 2011-10-15 00:51:44 04:24:17 02:53:03 08:12:58 08:12:56 08:22:57 4
IM Regensburg 2012-06-17 00:45:03 04:31:08 02:51:56 08:11:59 08:17:40 08:21:36 1
IM Hawaii 2012-10-13 00:52:30 04:34:17 03:05:47 08:36:21 08:26:49 08:22:45 10
IM Cozumel 2012-11-25 00:50:15 04:28:39 04:30:21 09:52:18 09:58:30 08:40:25 26
Challenge Roth 2013-07-14 00:46:05 04:15:05 02:48:41 07:52:01 08:09:05 08:34:44 1

As usual, there are three main data points for each race in addition to the splits:

  • „Total” is the finishing time for each race, as it appeared in the results
  • „Normalised” is the course- and condition-neutral time, allowing a comparison of results from different races
  • „Rating” is a weighted average of all previous normalised times in order to compare different athletes, even if they haven’t raced each other

It’s easier to spot the trends in the following graph:

DirkDevelopment

Development

After his great Beijing performance, Dirk prepared for longer racing, and immediately had great results. In his first Ironman in New Zealand 2009, he managed to qualify for Kona with a solid 3rd place behind Cam Brown and Terenzo Bozzone. In his Hawaii debut he finished 7th in almost the same time (8:29 vs. 8:27) but a much better normalised performance. In 2010 he had more solid results: He finished 8th in Kona (again improving his rating), then quickly punched his Kona ticket with a 3rd place at IM Florida. (His normalised time was a bit slower, but  that’s not surprising so soon after Kona.)

2011 saw him make another big step forward: He finished 4th in Kona with his best time so far (bot total and normalised). After a fast bike he was still able to post a solid 2:53 run. He was only beaten by Craig Alexander, Pete Jacobs and Andi Raelert, who ran between 2:42 and 2:47 to beat him.

He’s had another good season in 2012. (If you haven’t seen it yet, you should watch the great documentary on his 2012 season.) He won Ironman Regensburg and was in great shape for Kona. Unfortunately, he broke his hand a few days before Kona. He was severely handicapped during the swim (requiring a splint), and had problems grabbing bottles on the bike. He didn’t quite have the day he wanted, but pulled himself together to finish in 10th place.

BockelBikeHill

After Kona, he quickly validated his Kona slot by finishing in Cozumel. He ran into problems on the run, and hobbled into the finish, posting a slower run leg than on the bike. Still, he finished to make sure he could he qualified for Kona 2013. (You can clearly see the impact of this „bad race“ in the graph above, the total and normalised times are well outside the area of this graph, and his rating takes a big upward spike.) In the summer, it looked as if he managed to leave all these problems behind: He raced solo on the fast course in Roth, posting the 6th fastest time ever and also the fastest time since the world record performances in the summer of 2011 by Marino (7:45 in Austria) and Andi Raelert (7:41 in Roth). (He spoke at length about the race in his interview on the IMTalk podcast.)

Again, he seemed to be in great position for Kona. He was in the lead group after the swim. He let the „über-bikers“ do their thing on the Queen K, but finished the bike in 5th place and in a great position for a podium finish, less than four minutes behind eventual winner Frederik Van Lierde and 3rd place Sebastian Kienle. Unfortunately, his run did not go as planned and he had to DNF with nutritional issues, like a lot of other athletes this year. More about this and his plans for 2014 in my interview with Dirk.

Photo Credit: Jay Prasuhn

Ironman Arizona 2013 (November 17th) – Predictions

With IM Arizona, the next of the late season Ironman race is coming up. As we saw in Florida, we have a pretty large field, and it is doubtful if some athletes will actually show up on race day. The names that I consider likely to withdraw are Victor Del Corral (just won in Florida – may go for the double), Ashley Clifford (just finished second and Florida and has stated she will race Cozumel), and Linsey Corbin and Leanda Cave (raced Kona injured and probably need time to properly heal). I’m sure there will be other late changed to the start list, in Florida there were nearly 30 late withdrawals.

Update (Nov 6th): Victor has confirmed he’ll be racing, and Linsey also announced on Twitter that she’s looking forward to the Tempe experience.

Update (Nov 8th): I have heard from Ironman Pro Registration that Linsey Corbin, TJ Tollakson and Markus Ressler won’t be racing. In addition, I’m taking Ashley Clifford off the list (twitter conversation that she will race in Cozumel, not Arizona).

Update (Nov 15th): Ironman.com has released an update to the start list. In addition to the names I have already crossed, the following athletes won’t start: Bryan Rhodes, Andrew Langfield, Michael Davidson, Ryan Cain, Torsten Abel and Malaika Homo. I have also re-calculated the winning odds. There will probably be another update after race packet pickup.

Update (Nov 16th): The Athlete Tracker for IM Arizona is now live, but the names can’t be right as there are a lot of confirmed DNFs in there. In addition to those I have listed above, Leanda Cave also stated on Twitter that she won’t be racing.

Previous Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Nils Frommhold GER 00:48:19 04:22:45 02:48:06 08:03:13
2 Paul Matthews AUS 00:48:27 04:24:31 02:48:27 08:04:58
3 TJ Tollakson USA 00:48:34 04:19:03 02:56:01 08:07:36

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Linsey Corbin USA 00:59:11 04:51:34 03:05:54 09:01:41
2 Meredith Kessler USA 00:50:17 04:53:41 03:18:12 09:06:41
3 Corinne Abraham GBR 01:04:59 04:54:05 03:11:44 09:15:10

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 07:59:38 Eneko Llanos 2011-11-19
Swim overall 00:46:02 Kieran Doe 2008-11-23
Bike overall 04:16:31 Andrew Starykowicz 2012-11-18
Run overall 02:43:30 Victor Zyemtsev 2011-11-19
Total female 08:36:13 Chrissie Wellington 2010-11-21
Swim female 00:48:13 Leanda Cave 2008-11-23
Bike female 04:47:06 Chrissie Wellington 2010-11-21
Run female 02:52:56 Chrissie Wellington 2010-11-21

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Arizona is 09:00.

Race Adjustments for IM Arizona

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Athletes Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2006 02:44 -00:30 04:26 -03:19 29 02:44 -00:30 04:26 -03:19
2007 04:41 -00:38 01:07 02:45 26 03:43 -00:34 02:47 -00:17
2008 06:22 00:06 04:33 -00:30 38 04:36 -00:20 03:22 -00:21
2008 10:45 01:15 08:45 01:22 52 06:08 00:03 04:43 00:05
2009 11:46 -01:06 12:02 03:02 37 07:16 -00:10 06:11 00:40
2010 12:12 -00:23 08:31 02:49 46 08:05 -00:12 06:34 01:02
2011 14:36 -00:48 14:56 03:40 55 09:01 -00:18 07:46 01:24
2012 08:56 -02:06 15:27 03:03 50 09:00 -00:31 08:43 01:37

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Arizona has 2000 KPR points for the winner. It has a total prize purse of 75k$.

Male Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating Rank
1 40 Victor Del Corral ESP 08:17:40 08:26:06 00:54:31 04:40:22 02:50:02 10
2 1 Jordan Rapp USA 08:19:44 08:28:13 00:52:20 04:35:30 02:57:29 14
3 19 Denis Chevrot FRA 08:23:29 08:32:01 00:46:14 04:46:43 02:58:13 20
4 50 Jens Petersen-Bach DEN 08:28:16 08:36:53 00:51:44 04:48:03 02:54:52 32
5 10 TJ Tollakson USA 08:31:18 08:39:58 00:48:54 04:39:20 03:07:22 40
6 6 Pedro Gomes POR 08:35:35 08:44:20 00:51:40 04:50:28 03:07:22 57
7 47 Jarmo Hast FIN 08:35:39 08:44:24 00:49:54 04:52:50 02:59:08 58
8 55 Torsten Abel GER 08:37:36 08:46:23 00:49:31 04:51:10 03:00:09 67
9 45 Nick Baldwin SEY 08:38:50 08:47:38 00:53:11 04:49:36 03:00:53 70
10 12 Matty Reed USA 08:38:53 08:47:41 00:47:25 04:48:35 03:06:27 70
11 2 Jozsef Major HUN 08:39:00 08:47:48 00:57:43 04:42:20 03:03:14 70
12 28 Joe Umphenhour USA 08:39:32 08:48:21 00:47:09 04:52:08 03:08:14 76
13 39 Todd Skipworth AUS 08:43:42 08:52:35 00:45:53 04:40:02 03:25:27 86
14 13 Daniel Bretscher USA 08:43:47 08:52:40 00:50:53 04:48:28 03:07:11 86
15 44 Michael Davidson ZAF 08:44:07 08:53:00 00:53:29 04:53:14 03:05:09 87
16 9 Matthew Russell USA 08:45:01 08:53:55 01:01:48 04:47:49 02:59:06 91
17 70 Horst Reichel GER 08:48:41 08:57:39 00:48:26 04:47:41 03:17:32 109
18 51 Andrew Russell CAN 08:49:29 08:58:28 00:49:26 04:55:31 03:10:22 114
19 64 Thomas Gerlach USA 08:50:17 08:59:17 00:55:05 04:45:43 03:15:10 120
20 46 Gabriele Mazzetta ITA 08:51:19 09:00:20 00:51:26 04:55:59 03:11:02 124
21 58 Christian Brader GER 08:53:34 09:02:37 00:56:26 04:53:47 03:11:57 136
22 14 Jonathan Shearon USA 08:54:46 09:03:50 00:53:43 04:47:42 03:19:37 142
23 8 Trevor Wurtele CAN 08:55:32 09:04:37 00:54:43 04:51:23 03:14:27 143
24 30 Bryan McCrystal IRL 08:58:04 09:07:12 01:04:35 04:45:43 03:14:02 150
25 56 Nicholas Munoz ESP 08:58:15 09:07:23 00:57:05 05:01:16 03:00:55 151
26 37 Raul Furtado BRA 08:59:41 09:08:50 00:52:41 04:48:37 03:23:31 156
27 22 Markus Ressler AUT 09:03:50 09:13:03 00:52:01 04:59:31 03:19:41 168
28 24 Dan Mcintosh USA 09:07:16 09:16:33 00:51:49 04:57:04 03:16:06 177
29 42 Jared Milam USA 09:07:22 09:16:39 00:53:51 05:07:20 03:10:22 178
30 7 Bryan Rhodes NZL 09:08:28 09:17:46 00:47:55 04:56:36 03:24:19 180
31 53 Devon Palmer USA 09:12:10 09:21:32 00:52:37 04:50:10 03:32:17 193
32 54 Ryan Cain CAN 09:12:47 09:22:09 00:55:34 05:01:47 03:05:33 197
33 21 Anthony Toth CAN 09:19:21 09:28:50 00:57:42 05:00:14 03:22:59 217
34 27 Christopher Bagg USA 09:20:02 09:29:32 00:53:32 04:54:56 03:34:52 219
35 71 Erich Wegscheider USA 09:23:27 09:33:00 00:55:12 05:09:15 03:25:47 227
36 67 Lewis Elliot USA 09:25:00 09:34:35 00:54:21 04:57:07 03:38:35 232
37 35 Brendan Halpin USA 09:25:31 09:35:06 01:01:54 05:05:08 03:22:18 234
38 59 Stephen Kilshaw CAN 09:27:18 09:36:55 00:54:35 05:04:38 03:19:03 243
39 36 Patrick Schuster USA 09:28:37 09:38:16 01:08:52 04:53:26 03:38:19 250
40 23 Andrew Langfield USA 09:29:03 09:38:42 00:56:35 05:11:16 03:18:11 250
41 25 Luke Way CAN 09:29:08 09:38:47 00:58:54 05:06:27 03:26:01 251
42 33 Jim Lubinski USA 09:33:01 09:42:44 01:02:40 05:13:58 03:21:57 263
43 118 Jordan Bryden CAN 09:33:28 09:43:12 00:50:33 05:16:46 03:35:16 266
44 16 Jozef Vrabel SVK 09:36:05 09:45:51 00:57:24 05:10:14 03:32:30 274
45 26 Logan Franks USA 09:36:45 09:46:32 01:02:10 05:08:08 03:26:18 277
46 68 Raymond Botelho USA 09:40:30 09:50:21 00:55:23 05:03:08 03:46:46 285
47 48 Jon Woods NZL 09:40:36 09:50:27 00:56:01 05:04:38 03:36:37 285
48 49 Heinrich Sickl AUT 09:40:49 09:50:40 00:56:00 05:05:24 03:35:24 286
49 15 Patrick Wheeler USA 09:54:18 10:04:23 00:56:06 05:13:30 03:51:03 328
50 57 Dantley Young USA 09:56:47 10:06:54 01:02:08 05:20:43 03:36:40 332
51 69 Josep Vinolas ESP 10:09:10 10:19:30 00:52:04 04:53:22 03:26:55 363
52 41 Brendan Naef CAN 10:16:55 10:27:23 00:58:06 05:19:59 03:25:59 377
53 29 Richard Wygand BRA 10:39:32 10:50:23 01:04:09 05:32:41 04:07:53 391
54 119 Jason Watson USA 10:49:59 11:01:00 00:57:40 05:20:04 04:45:25 395
55 52 Marek Nemcik SVK 11:46:08 11:58:07 01:11:35 05:56:53 04:41:53 402
60 Johann Ackermann GER n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a
32 Jeff Tarkowski USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a
73 Matt Hanson USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a
43 Allen Gardner USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a
18 Matt Chrabot USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a
65 Timo Gronlund USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a
38 Marc Duelsen GER n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a
66 Robbie Wade IRL n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a
63 Jimi Minnema USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a
20 Ritchie Nicholls GBR n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a
34 Pierre-Yves Facomprez FRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a
61 Josh Seifarth CAN n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a
31 Richard Whitfield GBR n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a

Female Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating Rank
1 74 Linsey Corbin USA 09:13:37 09:23:00 00:57:25 05:12:06 03:09:27 10
2 75 Leanda Cave GBR 09:16:47 09:26:14 00:50:50 05:11:03 03:20:57 14
3 76 Meredith Kessler USA 09:17:32 09:26:59 00:50:33 05:11:04 03:21:08 15
4 78 Michelle Vesterby DEN 09:17:58 09:27:26 00:51:54 05:10:42 03:22:10 17
5 94 Julia Gajer GER 09:18:09 09:27:37 00:52:38 05:18:50 03:10:45 18
6 95 Diana Riesler GER 09:26:10 09:35:46 00:59:11 05:07:55 03:24:20 30
7 115 Amanda Stevens USA 09:27:31 09:37:08 00:49:05 05:16:55 03:27:32 33
8 116 Ashley Clifford USA 09:27:48 09:37:26 00:53:53 05:29:26 03:12:25 35
9 87 Asa Lundström SWE 09:32:48 09:42:31 01:00:09 05:15:41 03:22:23 47
10 79 Lisa Ribes USA 09:33:20 09:43:03 01:04:09 05:20:02 03:15:57 49
11 114 Brooke Brown CAN 09:34:24 09:44:08 01:04:34 05:18:38 03:17:30 50
12 103 Sarah Piampiano USA 09:38:12 09:48:00 01:00:55 05:22:45 03:23:12 55
13 106 Sara Gross CAN 09:38:48 09:48:37 00:55:39 05:33:18 03:18:27 56
14 113 Katja Konschak GER 09:40:55 09:50:46 00:52:10 05:29:11 03:21:55 60
15 84 Camilla Lindholm SWE 09:41:45 09:51:37 01:08:06 05:19:54 03:15:23 62
16 77 Heleen Bij De Vaate NED 09:42:19 09:52:12 01:05:22 05:14:41 03:27:16 65
17 104 Eimear Mullan IRL 09:42:26 09:52:19 01:01:17 05:26:27 03:15:52 66
18 97 Malaika Homo USA 09:44:32 09:54:27 00:53:07 05:22:31 03:35:28 70
19 92 Uli Bromme USA 09:45:37 09:55:33 01:02:52 05:21:56 03:26:21 71
20 83 Stephanie Jones USA 09:47:13 09:57:11 01:05:45 05:20:02 03:25:11 74
21 85 Kristin Lie NOR 09:54:04 10:04:08 01:11:39 05:18:12 03:30:02 86
22 88 Beth Shutt USA 09:55:36 10:05:42 00:59:39 05:27:05 03:34:14 89
23 107 Ariane Monticeli BRA 09:58:42 10:08:51 01:02:49 05:37:51 03:31:17 95
24 89 Sarah Hankla USA 10:00:56 10:11:07 00:56:23 05:36:48 03:41:33 102
25 110 Tine Holst DEN 10:01:35 10:11:47 01:07:03 05:21:24 03:37:07 103
26 91 Nina Pekerman ISR 10:03:00 10:13:14 00:59:01 05:32:12 03:38:04 108
27 109 Christine Fletcher CAN 10:08:10 10:18:29 00:58:51 05:29:42 03:42:18 113
28 90 Mackenzie Madison USA 10:09:46 10:20:06 01:02:01 05:19:36 03:09:31 115
29 111 Trish Deim USA 10:14:20 10:24:45 01:05:23 05:25:27 03:47:02 124
30 108 Steffi Steinberg GER 10:19:04 10:29:34 01:08:33 05:38:18 03:34:04 128
31 82 Erin Young USA 10:20:36 10:31:08 01:00:37 05:51:53 03:37:35 128
32 98 Kristyn Tobey BMU 10:21:42 10:32:15 01:10:07 05:36:04 03:40:43 128
33 117 Amy Forshaw GBR 10:22:25 10:32:58 01:02:42 05:42:41 03:37:15 129
34 102 Sarah Baker CAN 10:33:44 10:44:29 01:03:12 05:39:26 03:59:04 135
35 101 Ann Ciaverella USA 10:46:09 10:57:06 01:04:38 05:46:22 04:00:45 138
80 Miranda Tomenson CAN n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a
100 Morgin Chaffin USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a
105 Julie Van Veelen CAN n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a
96 Kate Bruck USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a
81 Lisa Mueller USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a
93 Jessica Meyers USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

On the men’s side, Florida winner Victor Del Corral has the best chances, but I’m sure Jordan Rapp (racing with bib #1) will want to erase his Kona DNF. TJ Tollakson has had great results in Arizona (two 2nd places and one 3rd), These two are followed by a few lesser known but still fast Europeans:

  • Victor Del Corral: 39% (2-1) 34% (2-1)
  • Jordan Rapp: 33% (2-1) 26% (3-1)
  • TJ Tollakson: 20% (4-1)
  • Jarmo Hast: 14% (6-1) 10% (9-1)
  • Torsten Abel: 3% (28-1)
  • Pedro Gomes: 3% (28-1) 2% (43-1)
  • Horst Reichel: 3% (32-1) 2% (46-1)
  • Jens Petersen-Bach: 3% (33-1)

Female Race Participants

Linsey Corbin (if she races) has to be considered the favorite to defend her title. Leaving Leanda Cave aside (I’m reasonably sure she won’t be racing) , Meredith Kessler will sure want to improve on her 2nd place from last year. Julia Gajer (who has gone sub-9 three times in Roth) will want to deliver her first good „official“ Ironman result (she was „only“ 4th in Wales after flatting on the bike). Michelle Vesterby (8th in Kona 2013) will probably put her main focus on finishing her mandatory IM. Then she can take a long build for Kona 2014.

Based solely on the ratings, Leanda Cave would have to be considered the favorite, but I wouldn’t consider her for a win. She has announced after the 70.3 in Miami that her off-season has started, so I’m a bit surprised she is still on the start list. Even if she races, my guess is that she’ll only race to validate, and probably won’t be able to deliver a world-class result. Therefore, I have taken her off my list of contenders. (Update Nov 16th: Leanda has confirmed on Twitter that she won’t be racing.)

Without Leanda and Linsey Corbin (who withdrew and thinks about re-building for 2014), the numbers are pretty even between Meredith Kessler and Julia Gajer. I’m sure that Meredith wants to improve on her 2nd place from last year and will be considered the favorite by the US media in Tempe. However, German Julia Gajer (who has gone sub-9 three times in Roth) will want to deliver her first good „official“ Ironman result (she was „only“ 4th in Wales after flatting on the bike). Michelle Vesterby (8th in Kona 2013) has announced that she’s not in Tempe just to finish her mandatory IM but will want to contend for the win. Diana Riesler and Amanda Stevens would also love to finish their 2013 season by winning an IM.

  • Linsey Corbin: 34% (2-1)
  • Leanda Cave: 22% (4-1)
  • Meredith Kessler: 32% (2-1) 14% (6-1)
  • Julia Gajer: 31% (2-1) 15% (6-1)
  • Michelle Vesterby: 11% (8-1) 4% (21-1)
  • Diana Riesler: 10% (9-1) 4% (26-1)
  • Ashley Clifford: 3% (28-1)
  • Amanda Stevens: 7% (13-1) 2% (50-1)
Select your currency
EUR Euro
USD United States (US) dollar

By continuing to use the site, you agree to the use of cookies. more information

The cookie settings on this website are set to "allow cookies" to give you the best browsing experience possible. If you continue to use this website without changing your cookie settings or you click "Accept" below then you are consenting to this.

Close