Race Conditions

As usual, Lake Placid was a pretty slow course: This year the adjustment was -0:04, leading to a new course rating of -2:22. The swim and bike were especially slow (probably because of the rainy weather), it was partly compensated by a slightly faster than normal run. 

Male Race Results

Kyle Buckingham took control of the race early on the bike and never let up. Even if he was slightly slower than his earlier results would have indicated, he won in a very convincing fashion and secured a Kona spot. Behind him, Balasz Csoke took second with a good performance across the board, and Jonathan Shearon finished third.

Raymond Botelho took the men’s 7th and „winning“ the prize for #IMLP7th. 

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time	Diff to expected
1	Kyle Buckingham	ZAF	00:52:04	04:43:47	02:57:49	08:38:43	05:52
2	Balazs Csoke	HUN	00:48:28	04:50:33	03:07:08	08:51:26	-12:36
3	Jonathan Shearon	USA	00:55:09	04:55:07	03:03:23	08:59:22	-01:30
4	Ryan Cain	CAN	00:58:07	04:59:43	03:01:42	09:05:19	-08:19
5	Vinny Johnson	USA	00:56:02	04:59:30	03:07:08	09:09:56	-19:30
6	Nathan Buttrick	USA	01:04:22	05:00:05	03:04:01	09:14:07	-09:46
7	Raymond Botelho	USA	00:55:07	05:00:49	03:19:32	09:23:21	-12:21
8	Patrick Wheeler	USA	00:58:29	05:04:48	03:13:31	09:24:19	06:10
9	Joshua Rix	AUS	00:52:27	05:00:13	03:34:25	09:32:47	32:21
10	Jesse Vondracek	USA	00:57:27	05:14:01	03:19:02	09:36:00	01:35
11	James Chesson	USA	00:59:49	05:16:57	03:19:45	09:41:47	36:04
12	Jim Lubinski	USA	01:05:10	05:22:07	03:10:33	09:43:39	-03:47
13	Tomas Martinek	CZE	00:48:24	05:26:12	03:24:58	09:45:26	n/a
14	Peter Kotland	USA	01:02:05	05:23:34	03:58:58	10:33:11	34:28
	Kyle Pawlaczyk	USA	01:02:47	04:58:22		DNF
	Andrew Fast	USA	01:01:02	05:04:37		DNF
	AJ Baucco	USA	00:54:10	05:17:14		DNF
	Pedro Gomes	POR	00:52:01			DNF

Female Race Results

Amber Ferreira swam faster than all other finishers, then followed that up with strong bike and run performances and took the win. Kim Schwabenbauer and Lisa Roberts took spots on the podium, also securing their Kona slots. 

The winner of the women’s #IMLP7th was Rachel Jastrebsky.

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time	Diff to expected
1	Amber Ferreira	USA	00:57:13	05:19:33	03:08:35	09:31:28	-23:20
2	Kim Schwabenbauer	USA	01:03:46	05:18:31	03:10:04	09:38:14	00:08
3	Lisa Roberts	USA	01:07:26	05:19:18	03:07:31	09:40:04	01:38
4	Kristin Lemos	USA	01:03:41	05:22:13	03:18:30	09:50:26	n/a
5	Jessica Meyers	USA	01:02:53	05:39:38	03:18:49	10:06:53	09:37
6	Kathryn Thomas	USA	00:55:25	05:31:11	03:46:38	10:19:46	n/a
7	Rachel Jastrebsky	USA	01:06:10	05:41:30	03:42:09	10:35:58	16:53
8	Leslie Lamacchia	USA	01:08:24	05:54:02	03:35:48	10:44:11	-02:35
9	Kristyn Tobey	BMU	01:08:28	05:53:14	03:42:38	10:50:35	13:52
10	Amanda Kourtz	USA	01:17:31	06:07:01	04:06:32	11:38:30	27:13
	Darbi Roberts	USA	00:54:11	05:33:36		DNF

Race Conditions

This year’s race was a bit slower than normal in Switzerland. A typically slow swim (adjustment of -3:47) was followed by pretty average bike and runs, leading to an adjustment of 2:08 and a new course rating of 7:22.  

Male Race Results

Jan Van Berkel was leading his rome race for the longest time, but really struggled towards the end of the run and faded to 5th.. Boris Stein was the fastest, winning his first Ironman. He was followed by David Plese, Marek Jaskolka, and Filip Ospaly – all of which also secured a Kona slot.

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time	Diff to expected
1	Boris Stein	GER	00:58:49	04:35:55	02:53:49	08:33:02	-29:13
2	David Plese	SLO	00:56:44	04:37:35	02:54:51	08:34:13	-05:47
3	Marek Jaskolka	POL	00:51:23	04:51:09	02:53:46	08:40:40	-09:12
4	Filip Ospaly	CZE	00:51:12	04:45:39	03:01:17	08:43:23	02:40
5	Jan Van Berkel	SUI	00:51:15	04:39:00	03:12:04	08:46:33	-02:28
6	Darby Thomas	FIN	01:01:02	04:51:45	02:58:55	08:56:36	06:10
7	Daniel Niederreiter	AUT	00:54:40	04:51:55	03:08:30	08:59:28	-04:29
8	Reto Stutz	SUI	01:00:56	04:35:08	03:19:53	09:02:00	-07:35
9	Tomas Mika	CZE	01:00:34	04:56:05	03:02:04	09:03:54	-26:39
10	Sergio Marques	POR	01:00:50	04:57:54	03:04:37	09:08:13	07:07
11	Mauro Baertsch	SUI	00:56:31	05:28:55	02:52:20	09:22:37	n/a
12	Mike Schifferle	SUI	01:04:21	05:07:32	03:15:17	09:33:17	31:29
13	Ludovic Le Guellec	FRA	01:06:52	05:11:52	03:32:29	09:57:52	-03:26
14	Marek Nemcik	SVK	01:14:58	05:40:20	04:13:30	11:17:47	-42:30
15	Pete Jacobs	AUS	00:51:27	05:37:47	04:56:41	11:42:39	3:01:53
	Bertrand Billard	FRA	00:51:17	04:36:45		DNF
	Stephen Bayliss	GBR	00:51:10	04:43:19		DNF
	Alejandro Santamaria	ESP	01:00:42	04:54:32		DNF
	Daniel Mueller	GER	00:56:55	05:08:54		DNF
	Eduardo Crooke Gonzalez	ESP	00:56:47	05:27:07		DNF
	Mathias Hecht	SUI	00:51:20			DNF
	Michael Goehner	GER	00:56:46			DNF
	Vincent Riess	AUT	00:58:49			DNF

Female Race Results

Daniela Ryf had an amazing weekend – on Saturday she won the 5150 in Zurich, on Sunday she started, finished and won her first Ironman. (Even winning wasn’t quit enough for a Kona slot, so she’ll be spared the tough decision of whether to accept a slot.) She was followed by Natascha Badmann, Sonja Tajsich and Kristin Möller who were all backing up just three weeks after IM Germany. Natascha and Kristin made sure to have enough Kona points to qualify.

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time	Diff to expected
1	Daniela Ryf	SUI	00:56:41	05:00:18	03:11:03	09:13:30	n/a
2	Natascha Badmann	SUI	01:05:10	04:55:00	03:23:01	09:28:37	02:53
3	Sonja Tajsich	GER	01:05:14	04:59:49	03:19:13	09:29:15	00:11
4	Kristin Moeller	GER	01:06:35	05:17:31	03:00:27	09:30:15	-03:05
5	Erika Csomor	HUN	01:05:12	05:04:55	03:16:51	09:32:14	02:59
6	Celine Schaerer	SUI	00:51:23	05:16:35	03:22:00	09:35:24	02:58
7	Carolin Lehrieder	GER	01:01:09	05:24:23	03:15:18	09:45:05	n/a
8	Evi Neuscheler	GER	01:05:05	05:09:27	03:24:47	09:45:30	-35:02
9	Regula Rohrbach	SUI	01:00:30	05:09:37	03:38:27	09:54:49	00:52
10	Monique Grossrieder	SUI	01:09:01	05:24:58	03:16:47	09:56:47	-24:54
11	Michaela Rudolf	AUT	01:10:35	05:07:57	03:35:50	10:00:55	06:59
12	Megumi Shigaki	JPN	01:05:08	05:13:28	03:49:47	10:13:55	-37:17
13	Vanessa Pereira	POR	01:06:16	05:37:29	03:51:53	10:42:50	05:35

Race Conditions

Even with the usual large number of sub-8 and sub-9 finishes, with an adjustment of 14:20 this year was a relatively slow race for the fast Roth standard (new course rating of 19:13).

Male Race Results

Timo Bracht fulfilled one of his dreams and won Roth. He had to work hard for it – after a great swim he rode with the second group and then hunted down long-time leader Nils Frommhold with a fantastic 2:44 run. Nils had a great day as well, and a 2:54 marathon after a 4:15 bike had him miss a sub-8 finish by seconds. Eneko Llanos finished third, he ran a solid sub-3 marathon without being really pushed. Joe Gambles had a great race with a strong run, James Cunnama struggled with stomach issues on the marathon (still sub-3), Dirk Bockel couldn’t quite deliver on the run, and Michael Rünz had a great first Ironman. So many great results, also opening up lots of interesting speculations for Kona.

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time	Diff to expected
1	Timo Bracht	GER	00:48:58	04:19:59	02:44:32	07:56:00	-13:56
2	Nils Frommhold	GER	00:48:39	04:15:16	02:54:03	08:00:39	-08:04
3	Eneko Llanos	ESP	00:49:02	04:19:54	02:57:35	08:09:29	00:38
4	Joe Gambles	AUS	00:48:47	04:23:05	02:55:36	08:10:10	-13:58
5	James Cunnama	ZAF	00:49:03	04:20:16	02:59:49	08:11:44	-14:19
6	Dirk Bockel	LUX	00:48:44	04:20:07	03:11:20	08:22:41	15:32
7	Michael Rünz	GER	00:52:17	04:35:57	02:52:20	08:23:44	n/a
8	Andrej Vistica	CRO	00:53:05	04:34:58	02:57:03	08:28:26	-12:07
9	Roeland Smits	NED	00:52:47	04:36:46	02:56:50	08:29:20	-24:50
10	Luke McKenzie	AUS	00:52:36	04:18:25	03:23:39	08:37:33	11:20
11	Michael Wetzel	GER	00:57:01	04:38:48	03:00:15	08:39:01	-20:02
12	Dirk Wijnalda	NED	00:55:58	04:35:59	03:06:38	08:41:29	-19:49
13	Sebastian Bleisteiner	GER	00:52:22	04:42:51	03:09:38	08:48:22	n/a
14	Per Bittner	GER	00:49:04	04:27:51	03:39:41	08:59:36	22:48
15	Joseph Spindler	GER	00:59:51	04:33:54	03:32:12	09:08:55	14:37
16	Thomas Naasz	NED	00:56:39	04:51:13	03:20:20	09:11:41	-02:09
17	Harri Sokk	EST	00:57:14	04:37:48	03:33:52	09:12:54	-02:16
18	Andreas Niedrig	GER	00:48:54	04:27:18	04:04:55	09:24:51	24:53
19	Pete Jacobs	AUS	00:48:42	04:45:15	03:54:54	09:32:25	1:08:22
20	Nis Lind	DEN	00:59:42	04:53:19	04:28:04	10:28:23	57:11

Female Race Results

The women’s race shaped up to be a trial run for Kona with the „Big Four“ in women’s Ironman racing going head-to-head. At the front, it was a repeat of Kona, with Mirinda Carfrae running down Rachel Joyce who finished second. Caroline Steffen is still looking for the perfect bike/run balance, she lost a bit of time to Rachel and Rinnie, and then had a solid 3:05 marathon – which is no longer good enough to win in a world class field. However, she seems to be focused on Kona, and we’ll see what she can deliver in October! Yvonne Van Vlerken is probably happy with fourth place. Her swim is not quite yet where it was before her shoulder injury, she posted the fastest bike and then lost a bit of time on the run – still finishing sub-9! As with Xena, I’m looking forward to what she can do in Kona. Julia Gajer posted another solid Roth race – but a time just over 9 hours was only good for 5th place. She struggled a bit on the bike, but then posted the second fastest marathon time – just wait till she has a race with a good bike (such as Texas) and a good run (such as Roth)! 

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time	Diff to expected
1	Mirinda Carfrae	AUS	00:55:24	04:46:48	02:53:27	08:38:53	-18:04
2	Rachel Joyce	GBR	00:52:43	04:43:11	03:03:21	08:42:25	-16:17
3	Caroline Steffen	SUI	00:52:08	04:48:14	03:05:05	08:48:42	-10:10
4	Yvonne Van Vlerken	NED	00:59:24	04:42:17	03:14:40	08:59:36	-00:21
5	Julia Gajer	GER	00:52:26	05:03:05	03:02:08	09:00:50	-06:23
6	Diana Riesler	GER	00:59:06	04:43:02	03:27:58	09:13:16	-12:30
7	Michelle Vesterby	DEN	00:52:10	04:56:47	03:21:43	09:13:23	-05:34
8	Simone Maier	GER	01:02:35	05:00:57	03:23:17	09:31:24	-08:16
9	Daniela Saemmler	GER	00:55:38	05:01:14	03:37:31	09:37:46	18:49
10	Ana Casares	ESP	01:11:00	05:04:46	03:21:01	09:41:14	-16:42
11	Joyce Wolfe	IRL	01:00:05	05:18:28	03:24:30	09:47:03	01:55
12	Lina-kristin Schink	GER	01:10:31	05:17:22	03:32:07	10:03:44	n/a
13	Tracy Douglas	AUS	01:06:19	05:14:50	03:42:35	10:07:33	10:46
14	Heleen Bij De Vaate	NED	01:06:22	05:00:20	04:00:48	10:10:50	32:43
15	Yvette Grice	GBR	00:55:37	05:26:50	04:11:27	10:38:28	51:41
16	Sirlet Viilas	EST	01:06:26	05:49:29	03:55:52	10:56:03	n/a
17	Ann Ciaverella	USA	01:06:31	05:54:02	04:49:32	11:54:53	1:29:01

Race Conditions

This year’s race was very slow (adjustment of -4:18), even for the normally slow course in the UK (new course rating 2:17). This was mainly caused by a very slow bike (adjustment of -15:16) – even strong bike riders barely finished under five hours.

Male Race Results

After narrowing the gap to eventual fourth place finisher Axel Zeebroek on the bike, Cyril Viennot quickly took the lead on the run and cruised to a solid win. Home favorite Joe Skipper had a fantastic run to finish second, and Kirill Korshegarov took the last spot on the podium.

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time	Diff to expected
1	Cyril Viennot	FRA	00:51:15	04:50:48	02:57:35	08:44:10	01:16
2	Joe Skipper	GBR	00:51:17	05:04:04	02:48:20	08:48:12	-13:40
3	Kirill Kotshegarov	EST	00:51:14	04:58:58	02:55:41	08:51:01	-01:22
4	Axel Zeebroek	BEL	00:46:51	04:53:38	03:08:55	08:53:37	-02:51
5	Joerie Vansteelant	BEL	00:58:04	04:53:33	03:02:04	08:58:06	n/a
6	Markus Thomschke	GER	00:51:17	05:03:06	03:09:29	09:08:48	00:45
7	Petr Vabrousek	CZE	00:55:05	05:05:13	03:07:26	09:12:45	09:34
8	Victor Debil-Caux	FRA	00:55:01	05:00:23	03:19:29	09:19:17	-00:30
9	Scott Neyedli	GBR	00:49:36	05:11:32	03:20:06	09:25:51	25:05
10	James Brown	GBR	01:00:06	05:20:51	03:16:39	09:41:46	10:54
11	Anders Wagner	DEN	01:03:00	05:30:01	03:12:05	09:51:27	18:39
	Georg Potrebitsch	GER	00:49:34	05:04:29		DNF
	Harry Wiltshire	GBR	00:46:51			DNF
	Mike Aigroz	SUI	00:49:34			DNF
	Craig Twigg	GBR	00:51:12			DNF
	Steve Clark	GBR	00:57:43			DNF

Female Race Results

Tamsin Lewis had a fantastic first Ironman race – taking the lead on the bike and never looking in problems on the run. Katja Koschak collected some valuable KPR points, while Jo Carritt added another UK podium to her resume.

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time	Diff to expected
1	Tamsin Lewis	GBR	00:55:07	05:33:14	03:18:04	09:52:12	n/a
2	Katja Konschak	GER	00:51:17	05:59:02	03:14:34	10:11:25	08:18
3	Joanna Carritt	GBR	01:00:09	05:42:46	03:33:35	10:21:14	-04:15
4	Amy Forshaw	GBR	01:02:03	06:02:49	03:23:34	10:35:19	-07:32
5	Laura Bostock	GBR	01:01:00	06:31:41	04:56:55	12:36:42	45:14

Update (July 23rd): Matt Hanson will not be starting, he’s decided to focus on qualifying for Kona 2015. In addition, Jozsef Major won’t race.

Update (July 25th): As I suspected, Amanda Stevens will not be racing. She’s probably focusing on Kona already!

You can submit your own top picks on IM Predictions for a chance to win some nice prizes!

Previous Winners

Year	Male Winner	Time	Female Winner	Time
2005	Pierre Lavoie (CAN)	09:27:22	Heather Fuhr (USA)	09:45:06
2006	Victor Zyemtsev (USA)	08:38:18	Hollie Kenney (USA)	10:50:42
2007	Alex McDonald (USA)	09:16:02	Belinda Granger (AUS)	09:40:20
2008	Francisco Pontano (ARG)	08:43:32	Caitlin Snow (USA)	09:51:00
2009	Maik Twelsiek (GER)	08:36:37	Tereza Macel (CZE)	09:29:36
2010	Ben Hoffman (USA)	08:39:34	Amy Marsh (USA)	09:27:30
2011	TJ Tollakson (USA)	08:25:15	Heather Wurtele (CAN)	09:19:03
2012	Andy Potts (USA)	08:25:07	Jessie Donavan (USA)	09:47:39
2013	Andy Potts (USA)	08:43:29	Jennie Hansen (USA)	09:35:06

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Andy Potts	USA	00:46:48	04:48:33	03:02:41	08:43:29
2	Daniel Fontana	ITA	00:49:23	04:56:21	02:58:00	08:48:29
3	Ian Mikelson	USA	00:49:55	05:02:43	02:53:41	08:51:07

Female Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Jennie Hansen	USA	01:03:16	05:20:25	03:05:04	09:35:06
2	Katy Blakemore	USA	00:52:05	05:32:12	03:12:31	09:42:35
3	Carrie Lester	AUS	00:55:17	05:23:29	03:23:10	09:47:59

Course Records

Leg	Gender	Record	Athlete	Date
Total	overall	08:25:07	Andy Potts	2012-07-22
Swim	overall	00:45:01	Andy Potts	2012-07-22
Bike	overall	04:33:33	TJ Tollakson	2011-07-24
Run	overall	02:48:20	Victor Zyemtsev	2006-07-23
Total	female	09:19:03	Heather Wurtele	2011-07-24
Swim	female	00:50:48	Tereza Macel	2009-07-26
Bike	female	05:07:44	Amy Marsh	2010-07-25
Run	female	02:57:05	Caitlin Snow	2009-07-26

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Lake Placid is – 02:37.

Race Adjustments for IM Lake Placid

Year	Adjustment	Swim Adj.	Bike Adj.	Run Adj.	# of Athletes	Rating	Swim Rating	Bike Rating	Run Rating
2005	04:36	01:42	-17:09	15:06	8	04:36	01:42	-17:09	15:06
2006	-16:12	00:30	-13:47	-06:50	22	-05:48	01:06	-15:28	04:08
2007	-11:28	00:54	-11:41	00:21	15	-07:41	01:02	-14:12	02:52
2008	-01:31	00:31	-06:08	01:07	33	-06:09	00:54	-12:11	02:26
2009	-02:30	-00:01	-08:33	-01:15	36	-05:25	00:43	-11:28	01:42
2010	02:33	-02:53	-03:47	01:49	37	-04:06	00:07	-10:11	01:43
2011	01:14	-02:56	-04:18	03:20	20	-03:20	-00:19	-09:20	01:57
2012	-00:39	00:38	-06:49	01:39	11	-03:00	-00:12	-09:02	01:54
2013	00:21	00:09	-05:15	02:22	27	-02:37	-00:10	-08:36	01:57

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Lake Placid has 2000 KPR points for the winner. It has a total prize purse of 25k$.

Male Race Participants

Rank	Bib	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Swim Rating	Bike Rating	Run Rating	Rank
1	8	Kyle Buckingham	ZAF	08:35:17	08:32:47	00:48:24	04:28:52	02:56:30	(21)
2	14	Matt Hanson	USA	08:50:37	08:48:03	00:55:48	04:56:56	02:48:48	63
3	3	Pedro Gomes	POR	08:54:27	08:51:52	00:50:51	04:48:05	03:08:09	80
4	2	Jozsef Major	HUN	08:55:29	08:52:54	00:57:27	04:43:26	03:05:51	91
5	4	Joshua Rix	AUS	09:03:00	09:00:22	00:49:53	04:46:48	03:19:49	127
6	6	AJ Baucco	USA	09:03:20	09:00:42	unrated	04:53:31	03:09:13	132
7	21	Jonathan Shearon	USA	09:03:26	09:00:48	00:53:34	04:46:17	03:14:41	133
8	12	Balazs Csoke	HUN	09:06:37	09:03:58	00:48:07	04:50:44	03:20:32	141
9	9	James Chesson	USA	09:08:18	09:05:39	00:55:54	04:50:12	03:05:09	(152)
10	10	Ryan Cain	CAN	09:16:15	09:13:34	00:55:59	05:03:31	03:08:08	187
11	23	Patrick Wheeler	USA	09:20:48	09:18:05	00:56:04	05:07:19	03:07:36	196
12	11	Greg Close	USA	09:30:41	09:27:55	00:58:05	05:04:24	03:12:55	(235)
13	15	Vinny Johnson	USA	09:32:08	09:29:22	00:53:18	05:09:47	03:10:04	(244)
14	22	Jesse Vondracek	USA	09:37:08	09:34:21	00:55:42	05:12:17	03:19:15	263
15	7	Raymond Botelho	USA	09:38:26	09:35:38	00:54:48	04:56:05	03:37:02	267
16	20	Kyle Pawlaczyk	USA	09:39:26	09:36:38	00:55:32	05:11:25	03:24:48	269
17	17	Jim Lubinski	USA	09:50:13	09:47:22	01:03:24	05:18:00	03:20:52	314
18	16	Peter Kotland	USA	10:01:34	09:58:39	00:57:17	05:19:08	03:33:48	361
19	18	Simon Malo	CAN	10:02:39	09:59:44	00:57:21	05:06:48	03:44:02	(364)
	5	Felipe Aguayo	CHE	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	13	Andrew Fast	USA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	19	Tomas Martinek	CZE	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank	Bib	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Swim Rating	Bike Rating	Run Rating	Rank
1	41	Kim Schwabenbauer	USA	09:40:51	09:38:02	01:02:39	05:15:24	03:14:55	37
2	38	Lisa Roberts	USA	09:41:11	09:38:22	01:03:56	05:15:48	03:11:21	40
3	31	Amanda Stevens	USA	09:46:29	09:43:39	00:49:32	05:20:05	03:28:59	48
4	32	Amber Ferreira	USA	09:57:37	09:54:44	00:54:57	05:29:11	03:26:30	76
5	34	Jessica Meyers	USA	10:00:06	09:57:12	00:59:50	05:23:17	03:23:16	(87)
6	33	Rachel Jastrebsky	USA	10:22:00	10:19:00	01:00:53	05:34:26	03:35:44	128
7	44	Kristyn Tobey	BMU	10:39:44	10:36:38	01:08:33	05:31:10	03:42:46	(144)
8	36	Leslie Lamacchia	USA	10:49:50	10:46:41	01:08:45	05:35:40	03:47:34	(151)
9	40	Robin Sandos	USA	11:13:06	11:09:51	00:58:50	05:42:44	04:04:28	(158)
10	35	Amanda Kourtz	USA	11:14:28	11:11:12	01:15:05	05:22:32	04:14:42	(158)
	37	Kristin Lemos	USA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	43	Kathryn Thomas	USA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	39	Darbi Roberts	USA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

Based on my predictions, it does not look to well for another US winner in Lake Placid. The odds are lead by Pedro Gomes (who took things a bit easier after qualifying for Kona), followed Kyle Buckingham (who had great first Pro Ironman by finishing 2nd in his home race in South Africa). Matt Hanson is probably the US athlete with the best chances, he’s had two great results earlier this year: 6th in Texas and 5th in Coeur d’Alene, posting the fastest run splits in both of them.

• Pedro Gomes: 35% (2-1)
• Kyle Buckingham: 20% (4-1)
• Jozsef Major: 14% (6-1)
• Matt Hanson: 13% (7-1)
• Joshua Rix: 7% (12-1)
• Balazs Csoke: 5% (19-1)
• Jonathan Shearon: 3% (34-1)

Female Race Participants

A US win is almost assured on the women’s side: There is only one non-US pro on the start list. Amanda will probably lead the race for most of the day, but Lisa, Kim and Amber will make the race interesting on the run.

• Amanda Stevens: 40% (2-1)
• Lisa Roberts: 31% (2-1)
• Kim Schwabenbauer: 17% (5-1)
• Amber Ferreira: 9% (11-1)
• Jessica Meyers: 3% (36-1)

The Race for Seventh

DarkMark, TheRealStarky and Pay10Deep are raising money to pay the 7th finishers in the men’s and women’s race at Ironman Lake Placid. They have asked me to analyze the athlete’s chances for a seventh place finish. In addition, Luke and I are helping them to increase awareness for the issue of small professional prize purses in Ironman races by offering a special version of IM Predicitions allowing you to pick the 7th finisher in the Lake Placid Pro races.

Men

Here are the athletes with the best chances to finish seventh:

• Raymond Botelho: 11% (8-1)
• Greg Close: 11% (8-1)
• AJ Baucco: 9% (10-1)
• Joshua Rix: 9% (10-1)
• Ryan Cain: 8% (11-1)
• Patrick Wheeler: 8% (11-1)

Women

The women’s side is a lot trickier – with only 13 athletes on the start list, there could be less than seven finishers. (Actually, „no one“ is my most probable prediction at about 30%, but my models aren’t well calibrated for these predicting the number of finishes.) Here are the likeliest seventh finishers:

• Leslie Lamacchia: 10% (9-1)
• Kristin Lemos: 9% (10-1)
• Kathryn Thomas: 9% (10-1)
• Darbi Roberts: 9% (10-1)
• Kristyn Tobey: 7% (12-1)

KPR Situation

Men

Not too many athletes from Lake Placid are contending for a July Kona slot. Kyle Buckingham is the one with the most points, but at 2.024 he would need a second or better to get to my projected cutoff at 3.500 points. Matt Hanson (1.480) and Pedro Gomes (1.440) could also make it with a win.

Women

Amanda Stevens should already be safe for a Kona slot – she sits at 5.175 points and my projected cutoff is at 4.900. Lisa Roberts (4.005) and Kim Schwabenbauer (3.450) should be able to get a Kona slot with a good placing (4th and 2nd respectively). Amber Ferreira (2.425 points) is already too far back to be able to qualify in July.