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Ages of Kona winners

On the recent IM Talk podcast episode, Bevan and John started a discussion about how old athletes are when they win IM Hawaii. John gave me my next research project …

So, here is the data:

image

The female winners ages are the red squares, the male winners are blue dots.

I’ve highlighted some notable athletes:

  • Sylviane Puntous is the youngest winner (age 22 in 1983).
  • The youngest male winner was Scott Tinley in 1982 (age 25 in 1982).
  • Dave Scott’s first win came at the age of 26 (in 1980). Thomas Hellriegel was also 26 when he won in 1997.
  • Mark Allen’s six wins also stand out.
  • Paula Newby-Fraser’s 8 wins occurred over a span of 10 years (1986 to 1996).
  • Natascha Badmann took 6 wins over 7 years, her reign was broken twice by Lori Bowden.
  • The progression of the recent men’s winners looks like another dynasty, in fact it’s three different athletes (Stadler, McCormack and Alexander) that are almost the same age. Crowie is also the oldest male winner (38 in 2011) – so is it time for the younger generation?
  • The youngest recent winners were Faris Al-Sultan (27 in 2005) and Mirinda Carefrae (29 in 2010).

I couldn’t find the exact birth dates of some of the earlier winners, so if you can help me out, please let me know. Specifically I have no information on Robin Beck, Linda Sweeney and Kathleen McCartney, and only rough information on Gordon Haller, Tom Warren and Joanne Ernst.

IM Cairns 2012 – Predictions (Details Post)

Male Race Participants

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Chris McCormack AUS 08:10:54 08:18:45 3
2 Cameron Brown NZL 08:20:45 08:28:45 10
3 David Dellow AUS 08:20:58 08:28:59 11
4 Todd Israel AUS 08:33:53 08:42:06 42
5 Aaron Farlow AUS 08:35:03 08:43:17 46
6 Luke Bell AUS 08:37:05 08:45:21 56
7 Luke McKenzie AUS 08:37:19 08:45:35 58
8 Mitchell Anderson AUS 08:38:47 08:47:05 67
9 Scott Neyedli GBR 08:42:32 08:50:53 91
10 Jimmy Johnsen DNK 08:45:10 08:53:34 101
11 Matty White AUS 08:47:12 08:55:38 111
12 Jason Shortis AUS 08:47:48 08:56:14 114
13 Petr Vabrousek CZE 08:49:22 08:57:50 121
14 Leon Griffin AUS 08:55:24 09:03:58 156
15 Bryan Rhodes NZL 09:05:19 09:14:02 226
16 Justin Granger AUS 09:08:16 09:17:02 247
17 Simon Cochrane NZL 09:09:40 09:18:27 268
18 Finnbar Crennan AUS 09:15:07 09:24:00 307
19 Jon Woods n/a unrated n/a
20 Michael Gee n/a unrated n/a

Female Race Participants

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Rebekah Keat AUS 09:18:59 09:27:55 11
2 Joanna Lawn NZL 09:25:09 09:34:11 20
3 Carrie Lester AUS 09:30:25 09:39:32 36
4 Michelle Mitchell AUS 09:34:04 09:43:15 42
5 Belinda Granger AUS 09:34:13 09:43:24 45
6 Candice Hammond NZL 09:43:37 09:52:57 69
7 Belinda Harper NZL 10:01:22 10:10:59 128
8 Emi Sakai JPN 10:11:32 10:21:19 163
9 Jodie Scott AUS 10:32:25 10:42:32 212
10 Amanda McKenzie USA 10:49:56 11:00:20 244
11 Rebecca Hoschke n/a unrated n/a
12 Melissa Rollison n/a unrated n/a
13 Ange Castle n/a unrated n/a

Results for Chris McCormack (AUS)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Cairns 2011-06-05 08:15:56 08:23:44 08:18:45 1
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 08:10:37 08:11:32 08:17:47 1
IM Germany 2010-07-04 08:14:43 08:25:46 08:18:58 3
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 08:25:20 08:21:10 08:17:31 4
IM Germany 2009-07-05 08:03:05 08:19:55 08:16:45 3
IM Germany 2008-07-06 07:59:55 08:18:30 08:16:00 1
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 08:15:34 08:15:27 08:15:26 1
Challenge Roth 2007-06-24 07:54:23 08:13:35 08:15:26 1
IM Hawaii 2006-10-21 08:13:07 08:09:23 08:15:54 2
Challenge Roth 2006-06-24 08:00:52 08:12:26 08:17:35 1
IM Australia 2006-05-11 08:20:41 08:18:47 08:19:10 1
IM Hawaii 2005-10-15 08:23:52 08:23:22 08:19:20 6
Challenge Roth 2005-06-24 07:58:45 08:08:54 08:17:04 1
IM Australia 2005-04-08 08:25:45 08:25:45 08:25:45 1

Results for Cameron Brown (NZL)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Melbourne 2012-03-24 08:00:12 08:08:13 08:28:45 2
IM Germany 2011-07-24 08:31:47 08:42:14 08:31:57 7
IM New Zealand 2011-03-05 08:31:07 08:32:26 08:30:26 1
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 08:34:10 08:35:08 08:30:08 17
IM Germany 2010-07-04 08:18:33 08:29:41 08:29:20 4
IM New Zealand 2010-03-06 08:21:52 08:27:47 08:29:17 1
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 08:53:41 08:49:17 08:29:33 22
IM New Zealand 2009-03-07 08:18:05 08:25:39 08:25:41 1
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 08:26:17 08:24:43 08:25:42 5
IM Germany 2008-07-06 08:08:29 08:27:24 08:25:54 4
IM New Zealand 2008-03-01 08:24:49 08:31:43 08:25:32 1
IM New Zealand 2007-03-03 08:26:33 08:30:32 08:23:45 1
IM Hawaii 2006-10-21 08:25:22 08:21:32 08:21:53 8
IM Germany 2006-07-23 08:13:40 08:23:10 08:22:00 1
IM Hawaii 2005-10-15 08:19:36 08:19:06 08:21:29 2
IM Germany 2005-07-11 08:28:00 08:25:12 08:22:48 2
IM New Zealand 2005-05-03 08:20:15 08:20:15 08:20:15 1

Results for David Dellow (AUS)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Melbourne 2012-03-24 08:04:19 08:12:24 08:28:59 5
IM Cairns 2011-06-05 08:41:39 08:49:52 08:49:52 6

Results for Todd Israel (AUS)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Melbourne 2012-03-24 08:33:31 08:42:06 08:42:06 15

Results for Aaron Farlow (AUS)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
Challenge Wanaka 2012-01-21 08:41:53 08:37:26 08:43:17 1
IM Western Australia 2011-12-04 08:34:09 08:42:39 08:45:00 5
IM Wales 2011-09-11 09:04:25 08:55:27 08:45:56 2
IM UK 2011-07-31 08:24:34 08:35:01 08:40:20 1
IM Regensburg 2010-08-01 08:39:41 08:47:24 08:47:24 6

Results for Luke Bell (AUS)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Melbourne 2012-03-24 08:10:38 08:18:50 08:45:21 7
IM Texas 2011-05-21 08:12:22 08:17:48 08:50:51 3
IM Western Australia 2010-12-05 08:21:33 08:33:07 08:57:16 4
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 09:24:34 09:25:37 09:02:13 51
IM Coeur d’Alene 2010-06-27 08:43:16 08:48:53 08:56:30 4
IM Canada 2009-08-30 09:26:26 09:30:59 08:58:43 19
IM Western Australia 2008-12-07 09:15:09 09:31:07 08:49:08 18
IM Australia 2008-04-06 08:56:17 08:59:13 08:35:49 6
IM New Zealand 2007-03-03 08:27:41 08:31:40 08:27:31 2
IM Hawaii 2006-10-21 08:24:26 08:20:37 08:26:04 7
IM Brasil 2006-01-01 08:15:48 08:22:00 08:28:34 2
IM Hawaii 2005-10-15 08:33:43 08:33:12 08:32:19 13
IM Australia 2005-04-08 08:31:17 08:31:17 08:31:17 2

Results for Luke McKenzie (AUS)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Western Australia 2011-12-04 09:03:44 09:12:43 08:45:35 11
IM Hawaii 2011-10-15 08:25:42 08:26:55 08:41:48 9
IM Germany 2011-07-24 08:26:51 08:37:11 08:44:06 6
IM Texas 2011-05-21 08:52:07 08:58:00 08:45:16 13
IM Brasil 2010-05-30 08:07:38 08:23:04 08:42:50 1
IM Florida 2009-11-07 08:37:59 08:53:57 08:46:11 7
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 08:38:38 08:34:22 08:44:52 15
IM Louisville 2009-08-28 08:26:01 08:29:07 08:46:57 2
IM Western Australia 2008-12-07 08:12:45 08:26:55 08:51:10 3
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 09:02:17 09:00:36 08:56:56 29
IM Australia 2008-04-06 08:46:00 08:48:53 08:55:51 5
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 08:44:55 08:44:48 08:58:14 19
IM Coeur d’Alene 2007-06-23 08:53:43 08:55:52 09:03:53 6
IM Hawaii 2006-10-21 09:20:20 09:16:05 09:08:55 54
IM Lake Placid 2006-07-23 09:08:27 09:01:13 09:01:13 10

Results for Mitchell Anderson (AUS)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Melbourne 2012-03-24 08:46:39 08:55:27 08:47:05 18
IM Western Australia 2011-12-04 08:35:57 08:44:28 08:44:57 7
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 09:04:35 09:00:06 08:45:06 31
IM Australia 2009-04-05 08:56:21 08:59:13 08:42:08 10
IM Australia 2008-04-06 08:40:18 08:43:09 08:38:37 2
IM Western Australia 2007-12-01 08:12:19 08:28:12 08:37:47 3
IM Australia 2007-04-08 08:46:51 08:50:24 08:39:41 4
IM Western Australia 2006-12-03 08:18:00 08:24:56 08:37:35 2
IM Hawaii 2006-10-21 08:55:22 08:51:19 08:40:19 34
IM Austria 2006-07-16 08:30:16 08:41:18 08:37:24 9
IM Western Australia 2005-11-27 08:27:35 08:29:48 08:36:09 1
IM Hawaii 2005-10-15 08:37:29 08:36:58 08:38:30 14
IM Switzerland 2005-07-15 08:36:26 08:40:44 08:39:21 3
IM Australia 2005-04-08 08:37:51 08:37:51 08:37:51 3

Results for Scott Neyedli (GBR)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Arizona 2011-11-19 08:29:03 08:41:51 08:50:53 11
IM Australia 2011-05-01 08:47:16 08:55:25 08:52:26 4
IM Western Australia 2010-12-05 08:34:45 08:46:37 08:51:55 7
IM Canada 2010-08-29 08:41:36 08:49:43 08:52:53 6
IM Australia 2010-03-28 08:27:58 08:35:46 08:53:31 2
IM Western Australia 2009-12-05 08:17:47 08:32:35 08:57:22 2
IM Lanzarote 2009-05-23 09:04:29 09:01:45 09:03:30 6
IM UK 2008-09-07 09:04:30 09:03:06 09:03:58 2
IM New Zealand 2008-03-01 09:00:17 09:07:40 09:04:12 10
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 09:04:48 09:04:40 09:03:06 31
IM UK 2007-08-19 08:35:57 08:41:39 09:02:28 1
IM South Africa 2007-03-18 09:20:43 09:19:52 09:15:25 7
IM Switzerland 2006-07-02 08:57:29 09:09:58 09:09:58 10

Results for Jimmy Johnsen (DNK)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
Challenge Wanaka 2012-01-21 09:09:05 09:04:24 08:53:34 5
Challenge Wanaka 2011-01-15 09:16:45 09:18:52 08:49:53 4
IM Western Australia 2009-12-05 08:21:11 08:36:05 08:40:02 3
IM Australia 2009-04-05 08:33:43 08:36:27 08:41:20 4
IM Western Australia 2008-12-07 08:18:43 08:33:03 08:43:09 4
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 08:55:11 08:55:03 08:48:17 25
IM UK 2007-08-19 08:40:51 08:46:36 08:44:23 3
IM Western Australia 2006-12-03 08:34:31 08:41:41 08:41:41 3

Results for Matty White (AUS)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Melbourne 2012-03-24 08:58:10 09:07:09 08:55:38 22
IM Cairns 2011-06-05 08:28:36 08:36:36 08:53:21 2
IM Western Australia 2010-12-05 08:18:06 08:29:35 08:56:30 2
Challenge Roth 2010-07-18 09:17:36 09:37:19 09:01:43 17
IM Coeur d’Alene 2010-06-27 08:49:04 08:54:44 08:54:13 6
IM Australia 2010-03-28 08:36:39 08:44:35 08:54:05 4
IM Western Australia 2009-12-05 08:35:03 08:50:22 08:57:09 5
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 09:07:59 09:03:28 08:59:58 33
IM Australia 2009-04-05 08:50:59 08:53:49 08:57:39 8
IM Australia 2008-04-06 08:59:49 09:02:46 09:02:46 7

Results for Jason Shortis (AUS)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Australia 2012-04-29 08:40:02 08:49:17 08:56:14 3
IM Melbourne 2012-03-24 08:57:33 09:06:32 08:57:00 21
IM Western Australia 2011-12-04 08:27:31 08:35:54 08:55:52 3
IM Canada 2011-08-28 09:12:55 09:17:16 08:58:19 10
IM Lake Placid 2011-07-24 08:47:18 08:49:21 08:55:53 3
IM Australia 2011-05-01 08:46:07 08:54:15 08:56:49 3
IM Louisville 2010-08-29 10:12:54 10:16:26 08:57:13 13
IM South Africa 2010-04-25 08:34:52 08:42:38 08:45:38 4
IM Western Australia 2009-12-05 08:37:20 08:52:43 08:46:06 6
IM Lake Placid 2009-07-26 08:58:09 08:58:33 08:45:03 3
IM Australia 2009-04-05 09:02:22 09:05:16 08:42:49 11
IM Western Australia 2008-12-07 08:10:57 08:25:04 08:38:47 2
IM Wisconsin 2008-09-07 08:59:14 08:59:48 08:41:27 3
IM Western Australia 2007-12-01 08:35:43 08:52:22 08:37:23 12
IM Australia 2007-04-08 08:25:33 08:28:57 08:34:08 2
IM Western Australia 2006-12-03 08:03:55 08:10:39 08:35:16 1
IM Korea 2006-08-27 08:34:09 08:36:40 08:41:22 5
Challenge Roth 2006-06-24 08:30:55 08:43:12 08:42:46 8
IM Australia 2006-05-11 08:36:08 08:34:10 08:42:36 3
IM Hawaii 2005-10-15 08:57:06 08:56:34 08:47:47 36
Challenge Roth 2005-06-24 08:27:25 08:38:10 08:38:10 8

Results for Petr Vabrousek (CZE)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Lanzarote 2012-05-19 09:07:30 09:02:50 08:57:50 6
IM South Africa 2012-04-22 09:09:57 09:04:03 08:57:37 6
IM Melbourne 2012-03-24 08:29:25 08:37:56 08:57:20 13
Challenge Wanaka 2012-01-21 09:15:21 09:10:37 08:58:13 6
IM Western Australia 2011-12-04 08:35:08 08:43:39 08:57:39 6
IM Hawaii 2011-10-15 09:13:42 09:15:02 08:58:18 30
IM Texas 2011-05-21 08:37:59 08:43:42 08:57:31 9
IM St. George 2011-05-07 09:11:11 09:11:37 08:58:07 9
IM South Africa 2011-04-10 08:40:36 08:52:17 08:57:31 8
IM New Zealand 2011-03-05 08:58:30 08:59:53 08:57:46 6
Challenge Wanaka 2011-01-15 09:27:44 09:29:53 08:57:40 5
IM Cozumel 2010-11-28 08:39:52 08:50:13 08:56:09 8
IM Florida 2010-11-06 08:29:59 08:45:59 08:56:26 7
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 08:56:26 08:57:26 08:56:56 41
IM Canada 2010-08-29 08:39:16 08:47:21 08:56:55 4
IM Lake Placid 2010-07-25 08:46:33 08:50:29 08:57:24 2
IM Brasil 2010-05-30 08:36:15 08:52:35 08:57:46 6
IM St. George 2010-05-01 09:09:43 09:05:34 08:58:02 6
Challenge Wanaka 2010-01-16 09:00:08 09:00:56 08:57:38 4
IM Western Australia 2009-12-05 08:57:08 09:13:06 08:57:27 10
IM Arizona 2009-11-22 08:37:45 08:47:11 08:56:37 10
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 09:23:03 09:18:25 08:57:09 48
IM Wisconsin 2009-09-13 09:08:26 09:06:41 08:55:56 7
IM Lake Placid 2009-07-26 09:10:24 09:10:49 08:55:17 6
Challenge Roth 2009-07-12 08:15:03 08:35:38 08:54:21 10
IM Brasil 2009-05-31 08:37:18 08:49:58 08:55:32 3
IM South Africa 2009-04-05 08:36:07 08:47:29 08:55:54 3
Challenge Wanaka 2009-01-01 08:44:38 08:50:24 08:56:28 2
IM Arizona 2008-11-23 08:28:09 08:34:42 08:56:52 8
IM Florida 2008-11-01 08:23:00 08:42:12 08:58:24 3
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 09:04:42 09:03:01 08:59:34 31
IM Lake Placid 2008-07-20 08:55:20 08:53:44 08:59:18 2
IM Switzerland 2008-07-13 08:53:05 09:05:45 08:59:44 6
IM Brasil 2008-05-25 08:53:58 09:02:44 08:59:14 4
IM Australia 2008-04-06 09:11:11 09:14:12 08:58:56 11
Challenge Wanaka 2008-01-19 09:09:36 09:13:13 08:57:32 6
IM Western Australia 2007-12-01 08:27:15 08:43:37 08:56:03 10
IM Florida 2007-11-03 08:53:05 09:09:03 08:57:17 21
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 09:42:26 09:42:18 08:56:01 56
IM Louisville 2007-08-26 10:58:00 11:00:05 08:50:31 22
IM Germany 2007-07-01 08:22:31 08:36:38 08:50:31 5
IM Brasil 2007-05-27 08:40:42 08:51:18 08:52:14 6
IM Arizona 2007-04-15 08:41:59 08:45:03 08:52:21 4
IM South Africa 2007-03-18 08:48:19 08:47:31 08:53:28 4
IM Hawaii 2006-10-21 09:10:45 09:06:35 08:54:30 47
IM Lake Placid 2006-07-23 09:03:12 08:56:02 08:52:17 7
IM Arizona 2006-04-09 08:44:54 08:45:59 08:51:30 8
IM South Africa 2006-03-18 08:38:52 08:40:31 08:52:48 3
IM Western Australia 2005-11-27 08:36:05 08:38:20 08:56:27 5
IM Hawaii 2005-10-15 09:12:17 09:11:44 09:33:57 50
IM Wisconsin 2005-09-11 11:19:03 11:00:54 09:42:05 23
IM Brasil 2005-05-28 09:06:45 09:06:45 08:58:25 6
IM Arizona 2005-04-09 08:49:46 08:49:46 08:49:46 4

Results for Leon Griffin (AUS)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Australia 2012-04-29 08:55:54 09:05:26 09:03:58 4
IM Western Australia 2011-12-04 09:03:49 09:12:48 09:02:48 12
IM Cozumel 2009-11-29 13:30:58 13:39:48 08:39:11 16
IM Western Australia 2008-12-07 08:24:41 08:39:11 08:39:11 6

Results for Bryan Rhodes (NZL)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Canada 2011-08-28 09:23:24 09:27:50 09:14:02 15
IM Lake Placid 2010-07-25 10:18:40 10:23:17 09:10:08 25
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 08:53:35 08:51:56 08:51:10 22
IM Canada 2008-08-24 08:30:12 08:36:43 08:51:01 1
IM Florida 2007-11-03 08:26:52 08:42:03 08:54:06 3
IM UK 2007-08-19 09:36:07 09:42:29 08:56:34 21
IM Coeur d’Alene 2007-06-23 08:46:38 08:48:45 08:45:33 5
IM Hawaii 2006-10-21 08:59:13 08:55:08 08:44:36 36
IM Lake Placid 2006-07-23 09:00:18 08:53:10 08:41:11 6
IM Western Australia 2005-11-27 08:34:25 08:36:39 08:35:58 4
IM UK 2005-08-21 08:42:11 08:29:41 08:35:35 1
IM New Zealand 2005-05-03 08:42:01 08:42:01 08:42:01 3

Results for Justin Granger (AUS)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Melbourne 2012-03-24 09:05:13 09:14:19 09:17:02 28
IM Korea 2011-07-03 09:30:44 09:38:09 09:17:32 5
IM Louisville 2009-08-28 09:16:33 09:19:58 09:13:55 12
Challenge Roth 2009-07-12 08:55:02 09:17:17 09:13:13 27
Challenge Wanaka 2009-01-01 09:19:16 09:25:25 09:12:43 7
IM Western Australia 2008-12-07 09:03:05 09:18:42 09:11:11 15
IM Wisconsin 2008-09-07 09:06:59 09:07:33 09:10:11 9
Challenge Roth 2008-07-13 08:43:39 09:04:41 09:10:34 13
Challenge Wanaka 2008-01-19 08:54:08 08:57:39 09:11:29 3
IM Florida 2007-11-03 08:38:23 08:53:54 09:13:40 8
IM Korea 2007-08-26 10:01:01 09:45:01 09:17:07 8
Challenge Roth 2007-06-24 09:51:07 10:15:03 09:11:36 25
Challenge Wanaka 2007-01-20 08:55:35 08:57:53 08:56:51 2
IM Western Australia 2006-12-03 08:50:20 08:57:43 08:56:35 9
Challenge Roth 2006-06-24 08:47:16 08:59:57 08:56:13 18
IM Australia 2006-05-11 08:55:12 08:53:10 08:54:40 7
Challenge Roth 2005-06-24 08:28:19 08:39:06 08:55:40 10
IM Australia 2005-04-08 09:13:16 09:13:16 09:13:16 15

Results for Simon Cochrane (NZL)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
Challenge Wanaka 2012-01-21 09:23:15 09:18:27 09:18:27 9

Results for Finnbar Crennan (AUS)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Melbourne 2012-03-24 09:14:44 09:24:00 09:24:00 29

Results for Jon Woods ()

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Michael Gee ()

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Rebekah Keat (AUS)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Melbourne 2012-03-24 09:13:43 09:22:58 09:27:55 6
Challenge Roth 2011-07-10 08:59:22 09:24:13 09:28:39 3
IM Cairns 2011-06-05 09:26:31 09:35:26 09:29:15 1
IM Western Australia 2010-12-05 09:22:37 09:35:36 09:28:18 2
IM Louisville 2010-08-29 09:33:15 09:36:34 09:27:11 1
Challenge Roth 2010-07-18 08:52:10 09:10:59 09:25:38 2
IM Australia 2010-03-28 09:33:10 09:41:59 09:28:26 2
Challenge Wanaka 2010-01-16 09:30:41 09:31:32 09:25:33 2
Challenge Roth 2009-07-12 08:39:24 09:01:00 09:24:03 2
IM Australia 2009-04-05 09:21:33 09:24:33 09:30:26 2
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 09:56:01 09:54:10 09:32:27 17
Challenge Roth 2008-07-13 09:02:34 09:24:21 09:23:08 5
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 09:27:19 09:27:11 09:22:20 6
IM Australia 2007-04-08 09:12:58 09:16:42 09:16:42 1

Results for Joanna Lawn (NZL)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Melbourne 2012-03-24 09:06:53 09:16:01 09:34:11 4
IM Hawaii 2011-10-15 10:02:33 10:04:00 09:36:38 19
IM Texas 2011-05-21 09:32:19 09:38:38 09:32:56 9
IM New Zealand 2011-03-05 09:31:53 09:33:21 09:32:10 3
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 09:43:08 09:44:13 09:31:59 20
IM Germany 2010-07-04 09:36:12 09:49:05 09:30:08 6
IM New Zealand 2010-03-06 09:14:35 09:21:08 09:27:03 1
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 09:34:45 09:30:01 09:28:05 7
IM New Zealand 2009-03-07 09:23:08 09:31:42 09:27:44 2
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 09:45:33 09:43:44 09:27:00 14
IM New Zealand 2008-03-01 09:16:00 09:23:36 09:23:45 1
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 09:26:47 09:26:39 09:23:47 4
Challenge Roth 2007-06-24 08:58:25 09:20:13 09:23:11 2
IM New Zealand 2007-03-03 09:20:02 09:24:26 09:23:54 1
IM Hawaii 2006-10-21 09:32:48 09:28:28 09:23:44 7
Challenge Roth 2006-06-24 09:01:17 09:14:18 09:22:09 1
IM Hawaii 2005-10-15 09:14:53 09:14:20 09:25:38 4
IM New Zealand 2005-05-03 09:30:14 09:30:14 09:32:08 1
IM Australia 2005-04-08 09:34:04 09:34:04 09:34:04 4

Results for Carrie Lester (AUS)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Melbourne 2012-03-24 09:18:25 09:27:45 09:39:32 8
IM Western Australia 2011-12-04 09:32:44 09:42:12 09:43:34 3
IM Cairns 2011-06-05 09:34:56 09:43:59 09:44:11 3
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 09:53:23 09:54:30 09:44:19 23
IM Australia 2010-03-28 09:23:46 09:32:26 09:32:26 1

Results for Michelle Mitchell (AUS)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Australia 2012-04-29 09:34:57 09:45:11 09:43:15 1
IM Western Australia 2011-12-04 09:28:07 09:37:30 09:42:27 2
IM Cairns 2011-06-05 09:30:41 09:39:40 09:45:25 2
IM New Zealand 2011-03-05 09:50:04 09:51:35 09:51:35 7
IM Wisconsin 2005-09-11 15:16:08 14:51:39 14:51:39 16

Results for Belinda Granger (AUS)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Melbourne 2012-03-24 09:26:21 09:35:49 09:43:24 10
Challenge Roth 2011-07-10 09:12:56 09:38:24 09:44:16 5
IM Cairns 2011-06-05 09:44:41 09:53:53 09:44:51 5
IM South Africa 2011-04-10 09:28:59 09:41:45 09:43:52 6
Challenge Wanaka 2011-01-15 10:26:17 10:28:40 09:44:07 1
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 10:18:29 10:19:38 09:38:38 30
Challenge Roth 2010-07-18 09:15:25 09:35:03 09:33:21 4
IM Canada 2009-08-30 09:40:48 09:45:28 09:33:07 2
Challenge Roth 2009-07-12 09:12:12 09:35:10 09:31:39 5
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 09:56:01 09:54:10 09:31:11 17
IM Canada 2008-08-24 09:17:58 09:25:06 09:28:31 1
Challenge Roth 2008-07-13 08:58:08 09:19:45 09:28:57 4
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 09:37:54 09:37:46 09:30:14 9
IM Lake Placid 2007-07-22 09:40:20 09:33:45 09:29:17 1
Challenge Roth 2007-06-24 09:07:56 09:30:07 09:28:40 3
IM Australia 2007-04-08 09:20:25 09:24:12 09:28:27 2
Challenge Wanaka 2007-01-20 09:38:26 09:40:55 09:29:10 1
IM Hawaii 2006-10-21 09:35:48 09:31:26 09:27:00 8
IM Canada 2006-08-27 09:25:13 09:24:20 09:26:04 1
Challenge Roth 2006-06-24 09:10:27 09:23:41 09:26:30 2
IM Australia 2006-05-11 09:30:29 09:28:19 09:27:22 2
IM Hawaii 2005-10-15 09:28:16 09:27:42 09:26:58 7
Challenge Roth 2005-06-24 09:14:06 09:25:51 09:26:34 1
IM Australia 2005-04-08 09:27:19 09:27:19 09:27:19 3

Results for Candice Hammond (NZL)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
Challenge Wanaka 2012-01-21 09:58:39 09:53:32 09:52:57 4
IM Cairns 2011-06-05 09:43:03 09:52:14 09:52:14 4

Results for Belinda Harper (NZL)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
Challenge Roth 2011-07-10 09:06:47 09:31:58 10:10:59 4
IM New Zealand 2011-03-05 09:40:33 09:42:03 10:32:57 5
Challenge Wanaka 2011-01-15 11:23:15 11:25:51 11:25:51 4

Results for Emi Sakai (JPN)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM South Africa 2012-04-22 10:28:03 10:21:19 10:21:19 7

Results for Jodie Scott (AUS)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
Challenge Wanaka 2012-01-21 10:53:43 10:48:08 10:42:32 8
IM Wisconsin 2010-09-12 10:41:15 10:43:59 10:40:49 10
IM New Zealand 2010-03-06 10:24:51 10:32:14 10:39:59 9
Challenge Wanaka 2010-01-16 10:15:26 10:16:21 10:42:14 4
IM Australia 2009-04-05 10:13:05 10:16:21 10:52:17 9
IM Western Australia 2008-12-07 10:22:43 10:40:37 11:08:26 10
IM Australia 2007-04-08 11:00:23 11:04:50 11:27:41 16
IM Australia 2006-05-11 11:50:29 11:47:47 11:44:50 15
IM Australia 2005-04-08 11:40:49 11:40:49 11:40:49 8

Results for Amanda McKenzie (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Brasil 2011-05-29 10:37:24 11:02:07 11:00:20 11
IM Brasil 2010-05-30 10:33:12 10:53:14 10:59:47 11
IM Louisville 2009-08-28 10:41:45 10:45:41 11:01:47 10
IM Florida 2008-11-01 10:09:38 10:32:54 11:07:02 9
IM Canada 2008-08-24 11:13:05 11:21:41 11:18:53 16
IM New Zealand 2008-03-01 10:53:05 11:02:01 11:17:31 13
IM Canada 2007-08-26 10:56:14 10:58:22 11:29:01 19
IM UK 2005-08-21 12:41:57 12:23:43 12:23:43 8

Results for Rebecca Hoschke ()

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Melissa Rollison ()

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Ange Castle ()

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

IM Brazil 2012 – Predictions (Main Post)

If you are looking for additional information on the participants, you can find a full list of their pro results in the detail post.

Previous Results

Brazil is one of the quicker courses on the IM calendar. With a course rating of 12:59 it is similar to IM Germany or IM Switzerland, but still a bit slower than the really fast courses such as Austria or Roth. Last year’s race was won by Eduardo Sturla (8:13:12 – a bit short of Luke McKenzie’s course record of 8:07:38 from 2010) and Amy Marsh (9:07:49 – course record). Don’t expect any sub-8 or sub-9 finishing times!

Male Participants

The top four finishers from last year are back on the start list for 2012:

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Santiago Ascenco BRA 08:28:06 08:40:37 35
2 Eduardo Sturla ARG 08:29:30 08:42:03 41
3 Guilherme Manocchio BRA 08:44:04 08:56:58 116
4 Ezequiel Morales ARG 08:46:56 08:59:55 132
5 Oscar Galindez ARG 08:51:18 09:04:23 160
6 Andrey Lyatskiy RUS 08:58:16 09:11:31 207
7 Raul Furtado BRA 09:01:01 09:14:20 229
8 Lucas da silveira Pretto 09:02:32 09:15:54 236
9 Rafael Wyss SWI 09:03:07 09:16:29 242
10 Antonio Filho BRA 09:04:57 09:18:22 265
11 Mario De Elias ARG 09:05:12 09:18:37 269
12 Ivan Albano BRA 09:08:43 09:22:14 299
13 Luiz Francisco Ferreira BRA 09:10:04 09:23:37 305
14 Frederico Monteiro 09:13:05 09:26:42 329
15 Hiroyuki Nishiuchi JPN 09:13:16 09:26:53 332
16 Eneko Elosegui ESP 09:30:04 09:44:06 450
17 Lucas Cocha ARG 09:30:29 09:44:32 454
18 Sandi Ivancic SLO 09:34:14 09:48:22 478
19 Matjaz Kovac SVN 09:36:10 09:50:21 498
20 Christian emiliano Carletto 09:37:47 09:52:01 511
21 Santiago Amigo ARG 09:48:12 10:02:41 573
22 Ciro Violin n/a unrated n/a
23 Geovani Muchinski n/a unrated n/a
24 Thiago Vinhal n/a unrated n/a
25 Frank Silvestrin n/a unrated n/a
26 Igor Amorelli n/a unrated n/a
27 Antônio Marcos da souza da silva n/a unrated n/a
28 Gabriel Raff n/a unrated n/a
29 Rodrigo Ferreira n/a unrated n/a
30 Felipe De Oliveira Manente n/a unrated n/a
31 Guto Antunes n/a unrated n/a
32 Greg Close USA n/a unrated n/a
33 Frederico Carvalho Zacharias n/a unrated n/a
34 Marcio Roniak n/a unrated n/a

The winning odds show a bit different picture:

  • Eduardo Sturla: 35%
  • Ezequiel Morales: 24%
  • Guilherme Manocchio: 17%
  • Santiago Ascenco: 16%
  • Oscar Galindez: 8%

The odds put more weight on recent results, experience and performance on the course, so they are better at predicting who wins than the ratings (which predict a finishing time based on an athletes capabilities). This is why I’m giving the top-rated athlete (Santiago Ascenso) only a 16% chance to win (he only has three IM results) while the “slower” (even if only by two minutes) Eduardo Sturla (with a large number of fast results which include a couple of wins and great results in Brazil) is the overall favorite at 35%.

Female Participants

On the female side, the top rated athlete on the start list is Michelle Vesterby:

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Michelle Vesterby DNK 09:22:18 09:36:09 26
2 Sofie Goos BEL 09:30:26 09:44:29 47
3 Kim Loeffler USA 09:33:13 09:47:20 53
4 Sara Gross CAN 09:41:52 09:56:12 75
5 Dede Griesbauer USA 09:44:57 09:59:21 85
6 Ana Lidia Borba BRA 09:47:16 10:01:44 89
7 Hillary Biscay USA 09:59:43 10:14:29 139
8 Maki Nishiuchi JPN 10:08:50 10:23:50 170
9 Ariane Monticeli BRA 10:08:55 10:23:55 171
10 Fernanda Keller BRA 10:22:37 10:37:57 200
11 Silvia Fusco BRA 10:23:12 10:38:33 202
12 Mariana Andrade BRA 10:45:21 11:01:14 247
13 Alessandra Carvalho BRA 10:47:17 11:03:13 249
14 Vanessa Gianinni BRA n/a unrated n/a

As she is probably still celebrating her win at IM Lanzarote from last week, I don’t expect her to start. This is why I have two sets of winning odds (the odds in brackets are when Michelle is actually going to start):

  • Sofie Goos: 34% (30%)
  • Dede Griesbauer: 25% (22%)
  • Kim Loeffler: 28% (18%)
  • Sara Gross: 17% (10%)
  • Ariane Monticeli: 16% (9%)
  • (Michelle Vesterby: 29%)

Even without Michelle or any “rock stars”, the race looks to be quite interesting: With Sofie Goos there is a solid athlete that has already won an IM (Florida 2009). Dede Griesbauer has a Brazil finishing record of 2-1-2 (2010, 2009 and 2007), but is coming back from an injury. Kim Loeffler and Sara Gross have a long list of races, but to the best of my knowledge haven’t won an IM yet. Hillary Biscay is another well-known racer – she will probably be happy if she manages to get another podium spot after a long (at least for her) four week break following her third place in Australia. I give her a 32% chance for that.

Update: Dede Griesbauer is not racing in Brazil this year, but hopes to win in 2013. Updated the odds.

IM Brazil 2012 – Predictions (Details Post)

Male Race Participants

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Santiago Ascenco BRA 08:28:06 08:40:37 35
2 Eduardo Sturla ARG 08:29:30 08:42:03 41
3 Guilherme Manocchio BRA 08:44:04 08:56:58 116
4 Ezequiel Morales ARG 08:46:56 08:59:55 132
5 Oscar Galindez ARG 08:51:18 09:04:23 160
6 Andrey Lyatskiy RUS 08:58:16 09:11:31 207
7 Raul Furtado BRA 09:01:01 09:14:20 229
8 Lucas da silveira Pretto 09:02:32 09:15:54 236
9 Rafael Wyss SWI 09:03:07 09:16:29 242
10 Antonio Filho BRA 09:04:57 09:18:22 265
11 Mario De Elias ARG 09:05:12 09:18:37 269
12 Ivan Albano BRA 09:08:43 09:22:14 299
13 Luiz Francisco Ferreira BRA 09:10:04 09:23:37 305
14 Frederico Monteiro 09:13:05 09:26:42 329
15 Hiroyuki Nishiuchi JPN 09:13:16 09:26:53 332
16 Eneko Elosegui ESP 09:30:04 09:44:06 450
17 Lucas Cocha ARG 09:30:29 09:44:32 454
18 Sandi Ivancic SLO 09:34:14 09:48:22 478
19 Matjaz Kovac SVN 09:36:10 09:50:21 498
20 Christian emiliano Carletto 09:37:47 09:52:01 511
21 Santiago Amigo ARG 09:48:12 10:02:41 573
22 Ciro Violin n/a unrated n/a
23 Geovani Muchinski n/a unrated n/a
24 Thiago Vinhal n/a unrated n/a
25 Frank Silvestrin n/a unrated n/a
26 Igor Amorelli n/a unrated n/a
27 Antônio Marcos da souza da silva n/a unrated n/a
28 Gabriel Raff n/a unrated n/a
29 Rodrigo Ferreira n/a unrated n/a
30 Felipe De Oliveira Manente n/a unrated n/a
31 Guto Antunes n/a unrated n/a
32 Greg Close USA n/a unrated n/a
33 Frederico Carvalho Zacharias n/a unrated n/a
34 Marcio Roniak n/a unrated n/a

Female Race Participants

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Michelle Vesterby DNK 09:22:18 09:36:09 26
2 Sofie Goos BEL 09:30:26 09:44:29 47
3 Kim Loeffler USA 09:33:13 09:47:20 53
4 Sara Gross CAN 09:41:52 09:56:12 75
5 Dede Griesbauer USA 09:44:57 09:59:21 85
6 Ana Lidia Borba BRA 09:47:16 10:01:44 89
7 Hillary Biscay USA 09:59:43 10:14:29 139
8 Maki Nishiuchi JPN 10:08:50 10:23:50 170
9 Ariane Monticeli BRA 10:08:55 10:23:55 171
10 Fernanda Keller BRA 10:22:37 10:37:57 200
11 Silvia Fusco BRA 10:23:12 10:38:33 202
12 Mariana Andrade BRA 10:45:21 11:01:14 247
13 Alessandra Carvalho BRA 10:47:17 11:03:13 249
14 Vanessa Gianinni BRA n/a unrated n/a

Results for Santiago Ascenco (BRA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Brasil 2011-05-29 08:24:24 08:43:58 08:40:37 4
IM Brasil 2010-05-30 08:18:32 08:34:18 08:38:14 3
IM Arizona 2009-11-22 08:33:26 08:42:47 08:42:47 9

Results for Eduardo Sturla (ARG)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Florida 2011-11-05 08:23:08 08:44:40 08:42:03 6
IM Lake Placid 2011-07-24 09:04:16 09:06:23 08:41:43 4
IM Brasil 2011-05-29 08:13:12 08:32:20 08:38:26 1
IM South Africa 2011-04-10 08:32:52 08:44:23 08:39:19 6
IM Cozumel 2010-11-28 08:24:31 08:34:33 08:38:30 3
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 08:48:07 08:49:06 08:39:11 31
IM Brasil 2010-05-30 08:20:24 08:36:14 08:37:11 4
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 08:49:22 08:45:00 08:37:24 19
IM Brasil 2009-05-31 08:13:39 08:25:44 08:35:42 1
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 08:36:53 08:35:17 08:38:13 10
IM Brasil 2008-05-25 08:28:27 08:36:48 08:39:01 1
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 08:36:31 08:36:24 08:39:43 13
IM Brasil 2007-05-27 08:29:27 08:39:49 08:40:54 3
IM Florida 2006-11-04 08:23:49 08:33:11 08:41:25 2
IM Brasil 2006-01-01 08:39:06 08:45:35 08:47:02 7
IM Austria 2005-07-03 08:48:43 08:48:43 08:48:43 14

Results for Guilherme Manocchio (BRA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM South Africa 2012-04-22 09:20:56 09:14:55 08:56:58 10
IM Brasil 2011-05-29 08:15:30 08:34:43 08:43:41 2
IM Brasil 2010-05-30 08:39:11 08:55:37 08:55:37 7

Results for Ezequiel Morales (ARG)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Wisconsin 2011-09-11 08:45:18 08:45:27 08:59:55 1
IM Brasil 2011-05-29 08:19:49 08:39:12 09:02:53 3
IM Cozumel 2010-11-28 10:09:11 10:21:18 09:08:26 23
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 08:56:02 08:57:02 08:49:54 40
IM Brasil 2010-05-30 08:12:43 08:28:18 08:47:35 2
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 08:54:27 08:50:03 08:55:32 23
IM Brasil 2009-05-31 08:39:01 08:51:44 08:58:24 4
IM Brasil 2008-05-25 08:55:55 09:04:43 09:04:21 6
IM Brasil 2006-01-01 08:56:53 09:03:36 09:03:36 12

Results for Oscar Galindez (ARG)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Cozumel 2011-11-27 09:27:15 09:41:30 09:04:23 22
IM Cozumel 2010-11-28 08:48:53 08:59:24 08:54:52 13
IM Brasil 2010-05-30 08:32:59 08:49:13 08:53:47 5
IM Cozumel 2009-11-29 09:19:49 09:25:55 08:54:58 7
IM France 2009-06-28 09:08:26 09:15:17 08:45:58 7
IM Western Australia 2008-12-07 08:27:28 08:42:03 08:35:48 7
IM Brasil 2007-05-27 08:21:11 08:31:23 08:33:11 1
IM Hawaii 2006-10-21 08:33:24 08:29:31 08:33:51 13
IM Brasil 2006-01-01 08:15:19 08:21:30 08:35:49 1
IM Hawaii 2005-10-15 08:29:50 08:29:19 08:43:51 11
IM Brasil 2005-05-28 09:00:04 09:00:04 09:00:04 2

Results for Andrey Lyatskiy (RUS)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM South Africa 2012-04-22 09:25:43 09:19:39 09:11:31 11
IM Cozumel 2011-11-27 08:43:05 08:56:14 09:06:44 5
IM Germany 2011-07-24 09:07:09 09:18:19 09:18:19 20

Results for Raul Furtado (BRA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Cozumel 2011-11-27 08:54:39 09:08:05 09:14:20 11
IM Texas 2011-05-21 09:09:39 09:15:43 09:17:29 16
IM Brasil 2009-05-31 08:53:20 09:06:24 09:18:50 5
IM Brasil 2008-05-25 08:55:04 09:03:51 09:28:21 5
IM Brasil 2007-05-27 09:49:00 10:01:00 10:01:00 26

Results for Lucas da silveira Pretto ()

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Brasil 2010-05-30 09:01:52 09:19:01 09:15:54 10
IM Brasil 2009-05-31 08:56:49 09:09:58 09:13:32 6
IM Brasil 2008-05-25 09:09:17 09:18:18 09:18:18 11

Results for Rafael Wyss (SWI)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Switzerland 2011-07-10 08:51:36 09:05:51 09:16:29 7
IM Lanzarote 2011-05-21 09:05:41 09:01:04 09:18:18 8
IM Switzerland 2010-07-25 08:47:16 08:58:26 09:21:42 9
IM Lanzarote 2010-05-22 09:11:28 09:09:36 09:25:58 10
IM Switzerland 2009-07-12 08:50:16 09:04:05 09:29:27 8
IM Lanzarote 2009-05-23 09:41:55 09:39:00 09:34:29 20
IM Canada 2008-08-24 09:28:35 09:35:51 09:33:25 25
IM Switzerland 2008-07-13 09:09:39 09:22:42 09:32:50 13
IM Lanzarote 2008-05-24 09:46:04 09:43:28 09:35:49 22
IM Switzerland 2007-06-24 09:00:31 09:14:14 09:32:48 9
IM Lanzarote 2007-05-20 09:41:33 09:39:18 09:40:53 10
IM Switzerland 2006-07-02 09:18:48 09:31:47 09:42:02 14
IM Switzerland 2005-07-15 09:50:38 09:55:33 09:55:33 19

Results for Antonio Filho (BRA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Brasil 2011-05-29 08:56:26 09:17:14 09:18:22 11
IM Brasil 2006-01-01 09:16:46 09:23:44 09:23:44 15

Results for Mario De Elias (ARG)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Regensburg 2011-08-07 09:06:20 09:18:37 09:18:37 8

Results for Ivan Albano (BRA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM South Africa 2012-04-22 09:40:30 09:34:17 09:22:14 14
IM Arizona 2011-11-19 09:01:14 09:14:51 09:20:11 30
IM Louisville 2011-08-28 09:21:39 09:32:19 09:21:08 5
IM Brasil 2011-05-29 08:48:57 09:09:28 09:18:54 7
IM Brasil 2010-05-30 08:54:05 09:10:59 09:21:03 9
IM Cozumel 2009-11-29 09:23:59 09:30:07 09:23:08 9
IM Brasil 2009-05-31 09:04:38 09:17:58 09:21:37 10
IM Louisville 2008-08-27 10:31:50 10:27:41 09:22:28 17
IM Brasil 2008-05-25 08:58:55 09:07:46 09:07:26 7
IM Florida 2007-11-03 08:50:46 09:06:40 09:07:21 18
IM Louisville 2007-08-26 09:11:09 09:12:54 09:07:33 9
IM Hawaii 2006-10-21 09:15:57 09:11:44 09:05:25 52
IM Brasil 2006-01-01 08:45:00 08:51:34 09:02:32 8
IM Wisconsin 2005-09-11 09:27:56 09:12:46 09:08:46 7
IM Brasil 2005-05-28 09:04:25 09:04:25 09:04:25 5

Results for Luiz Francisco Ferreira (BRA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Cozumel 2011-11-27 09:19:46 09:33:50 09:23:37 19
IM Brasil 2011-05-29 08:51:14 09:11:50 09:11:50 8

Results for Frederico Monteiro ()

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Brasil 2010-05-30 09:03:01 09:20:12 09:26:42 11
IM Brasil 2009-05-31 09:13:59 09:27:33 09:31:20 13
IM Brasil 2007-05-27 09:32:16 09:43:55 09:35:38 21
IM Brasil 2005-05-28 09:20:56 09:20:56 09:20:56 9

Results for Hiroyuki Nishiuchi (JPN)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Melbourne 2012-03-24 09:18:01 09:27:20 09:26:53 30
IM Hawaii 2011-10-15 09:26:42 09:28:03 09:26:48 34
IM Canada 2011-08-28 10:00:39 10:05:22 09:26:35 20
IM Korea 2011-07-03 09:18:12 09:25:27 09:18:34 4
IM New Zealand 2011-03-05 09:25:39 09:27:06 09:16:52 9
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 09:11:43 09:12:45 09:13:55 47
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 09:23:13 09:18:35 09:14:20 49
IM Louisville 2009-08-28 08:55:00 08:58:17 09:12:50 6
IM Canada 2008-08-24 09:13:56 09:21:01 09:20:18 20
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 09:18:41 09:18:33 09:19:51 42
IM Hawaii 2005-10-15 09:17:17 09:16:44 09:21:05 55
IM New Zealand 2005-05-03 09:26:02 09:26:02 09:26:02 21

Results for Eneko Elosegui (ESP)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Arizona 2010-11-21 08:54:57 09:06:53 09:44:06 13
IM UK 2010-08-01 09:38:53 09:45:57 09:52:08 7
IM Lanzarote 2010-05-22 09:21:08 09:19:14 09:53:39 14
IM UK 2009-08-02 09:36:48 09:33:41 10:04:06 12
IM Lanzarote 2009-05-23 09:59:58 09:56:58 10:13:46 26
IM New Zealand 2009-03-07 10:44:38 10:54:26 10:20:58 24
IM Lake Placid 2008-07-20 10:00:09 09:58:21 09:58:17 17
IM UK 2007-08-19 09:51:39 09:58:11 09:58:11 23

Results for Lucas Cocha (ARG)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Brasil 2011-05-29 08:51:41 09:12:18 09:44:32 9
IM France 2010-06-27 10:28:08 10:44:05 10:08:46 15
IM Brasil 2009-05-31 09:07:16 09:20:40 09:20:40 12

Results for Sandi Ivancic (SLO)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Austria 2010-07-04 09:23:41 09:42:15 09:48:22 29
IM Austria 2009-07-05 09:38:32 09:56:31 09:56:31 30

Results for Matjaz Kovac (SVN)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Wales 2011-09-11 10:22:11 10:11:56 09:50:21 15
IM Regensburg 2011-08-07 09:09:08 09:21:29 09:47:50 10
IM Germany 2011-07-24 09:34:50 09:46:34 09:51:13 24
IM Arizona 2010-11-21 10:07:28 10:21:01 09:51:53 33
IM Wisconsin 2010-09-12 09:32:03 09:34:30 09:47:56 15
IM Louisville 2010-08-29 09:40:45 09:44:06 09:49:55 11
IM Regensburg 2010-08-01 09:11:55 09:20:07 09:50:54 11
IM Austria 2010-07-04 09:29:03 09:47:48 09:57:05 30
IM Lanzarote 2010-05-22 10:16:55 10:14:50 09:59:22 20
IM Canada 2009-08-30 09:16:22 09:20:50 09:54:34 14
IM Lake Placid 2009-07-26 10:04:22 10:04:49 10:05:53 16
IM Lanzarote 2009-05-23 09:45:36 09:42:40 10:06:24 23
IM Lanzarote 2008-05-24 10:11:43 10:09:00 10:26:40 31
IM Lanzarote 2006-05-20 11:03:01 10:58:11 10:58:11 34

Results for Christian emiliano Carletto ()

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Florida 2011-11-05 09:29:48 09:54:11 09:52:01 22
IM Brasil 2011-05-29 09:28:54 09:50:58 09:50:56 14
IM Brasil 2009-05-31 09:19:27 09:33:09 09:50:55 14
IM Brasil 2008-05-25 09:38:09 09:47:38 10:04:31 21
IM Brasil 2007-05-27 10:14:29 10:27:00 10:27:00 30

Results for Santiago Amigo (ARG)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Brasil 2011-05-29 09:40:11 10:02:41 10:02:41 15

Results for Ciro Violin ()

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Geovani Muchinski ()

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Thiago Vinhal ()

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Frank Silvestrin ()

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Igor Amorelli ()

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Antônio Marcos da souza da silva ()

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Gabriel Raff ()

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Rodrigo Ferreira ()

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Felipe De Oliveira Manente ()

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Guto Antunes ()

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Greg Close (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Frederico Carvalho Zacharias ()

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Marcio Roniak ()

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Michelle Vesterby (DNK)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Lanzarote 2012-05-19 09:58:06 09:53:01 09:36:09 1
IM Melbourne 2012-03-24 09:19:05 09:28:25 09:26:55 9
IM Arizona 2011-11-19 09:11:23 09:25:15 09:25:15 5

Results for Sofie Goos (BEL)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Florida 2011-11-05 09:22:21 09:46:25 09:44:29 3
IM Texas 2011-05-21 09:12:53 09:18:59 09:43:49 3
IM Cozumel 2010-11-28 09:45:05 09:56:44 09:54:47 4
IM Florida 2009-11-07 09:08:38 09:25:32 09:53:34 1
IM Lanzarote 2008-05-24 10:30:44 10:27:56 10:17:40 7
IM Switzerland 2007-06-24 09:49:21 10:04:18 10:04:18 6

Results for Kim Loeffler (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Florida 2011-11-05 09:29:07 09:53:28 09:47:20 4
IM Canada 2011-08-28 09:34:54 09:39:25 09:46:34 2
IM France 2011-06-26 09:53:08 09:57:43 09:47:31 4
IM Texas 2011-05-21 09:20:04 09:26:15 09:46:02 6
IM Florida 2010-11-06 09:21:26 09:39:03 09:49:17 3
IM Louisville 2010-08-29 09:44:23 09:47:45 09:50:57 2
IM New Zealand 2010-03-06 09:30:57 09:37:41 09:51:33 3
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 10:32:00 10:26:48 09:54:11 35
IM Louisville 2009-08-28 09:38:23 09:41:56 09:47:32 3
IM Arizona 2008-11-23 09:33:54 09:41:18 09:48:54 4
IM Lake Placid 2008-07-20 09:54:55 09:53:08 09:50:46 2
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 10:00:15 10:00:06 09:50:06 21
IM New Zealand 2007-03-03 09:33:43 09:38:13 09:47:08 3
IM Hawaii 2006-10-21 09:48:40 09:44:12 09:50:05 15
IM Coeur d’Alene 2006-06-25 10:16:39 10:17:12 09:52:34 11
IM Hawaii 2005-10-15 09:30:18 09:29:44 09:37:03 8
IM Lake Placid 2005-07-24 09:49:44 09:44:51 09:44:51 2

Results for Sara Gross (CAN)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Cozumel 2011-11-27 09:56:29 10:11:29 09:56:12 6
IM Arizona 2011-11-19 09:18:03 09:32:05 09:53:36 8
IM Canada 2011-08-28 09:46:56 09:51:33 09:57:58 4
IM Canada 2009-08-30 10:42:08 10:47:18 09:59:28 13
IM Brasil 2009-05-31 09:44:46 09:59:05 09:52:11 4
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 10:06:10 10:04:18 09:51:03 20
IM Canada 2008-08-24 09:41:31 09:48:57 09:48:56 4
IM Coeur d’Alene 2008-06-22 10:03:45 10:08:03 09:48:55 4
IM Florida 2007-11-03 09:24:41 09:41:36 09:44:56 7
IM Canada 2007-08-26 09:43:34 09:45:27 09:45:38 2
IM Austria 2007-07-08 09:24:06 09:35:51 09:45:41 4
IM Brasil 2007-05-27 09:33:09 09:44:49 09:48:47 5
IM Western Australia 2006-12-03 09:15:33 09:23:17 09:50:31 2
IM Canada 2006-08-27 10:12:35 10:11:37 10:07:18 5
IM Canada 2005-08-29 10:03:55 10:01:34 10:01:34 6

Results for Dede Griesbauer (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Texas 2011-05-21 10:28:23 10:35:19 09:59:21 15
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 10:40:14 10:41:26 09:52:33 37
IM Brasil 2010-05-30 09:26:08 09:44:03 09:43:20 2
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 09:40:59 09:36:12 09:43:11 9
IM Brasil 2009-05-31 09:10:15 09:23:44 09:44:37 1
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 09:39:53 09:38:05 09:49:22 10
IM Austria 2008-07-13 09:49:16 10:08:18 09:52:00 12
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 09:33:34 09:33:26 09:47:28 7
IM Brasil 2007-05-27 09:18:18 09:29:40 09:51:32 2
IM Hawaii 2006-10-21 10:14:22 10:09:43 09:59:10 32
IM UK 2006-08-16 09:37:41 09:40:03 09:54:46 1
IM Hawaii 2005-10-15 09:54:34 09:53:58 10:04:26 17
IM Lake Placid 2005-07-24 10:20:44 10:15:36 10:15:36 8

Results for Ana Lidia Borba (BRA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Brasil 2011-05-29 12:03:10 12:31:13 10:01:44 13
IM Brasil 2009-05-31 09:52:29 10:07:00 10:01:44 5
IM Arizona 2008-11-23 09:48:03 09:55:38 09:55:38 7

Results for Hillary Biscay (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Australia 2012-04-29 09:58:19 10:08:58 10:14:29 3
IM Western Australia 2011-12-04 09:39:41 09:49:16 10:14:51 5
IM Louisville 2011-08-28 10:09:32 10:21:07 10:16:30 8
IM Korea 2011-07-03 10:12:20 10:20:18 10:16:12 3
IM Brasil 2011-05-29 09:33:14 09:55:28 10:15:57 4
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 10:47:51 10:49:04 10:17:18 39
IM Wisconsin 2010-09-12 10:29:06 10:31:47 10:15:26 7
IM Louisville 2010-08-29 10:52:37 10:56:23 10:14:27 9
IM Coeur d’Alene 2010-06-27 10:39:44 10:46:35 10:11:45 11
IM Brasil 2010-05-30 09:44:38 10:03:08 10:09:29 4
IM Lanzarote 2010-05-22 10:41:44 10:39:34 10:09:55 9
IM Wisconsin 2009-09-13 10:02:58 10:01:02 10:05:02 3
IM Lake Placid 2009-07-26 10:47:50 10:48:19 10:05:17 12
IM Lanzarote 2009-05-23 10:28:45 10:25:36 10:02:24 5
Challenge Wanaka 2009-01-01 10:16:39 10:23:26 10:00:50 2
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 10:35:10 10:33:12 09:59:22 35
IM Wisconsin 2008-09-07 09:47:25 09:48:02 09:57:10 1
IM Louisville 2008-08-27 09:59:33 09:55:37 09:57:47 4
IM Lake Placid 2008-07-20 09:58:45 09:56:57 09:57:57 3
Challenge Roth 2008-07-13 09:24:19 09:46:59 09:58:01 6
IM Brasil 2008-05-25 09:56:10 10:05:57 09:58:54 2
IM Arizona 2008-04-13 09:53:21 09:57:43 09:58:19 8
Challenge Wanaka 2008-01-19 10:11:17 10:15:19 09:58:22 2
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 09:56:46 09:56:38 09:56:51 20
IM Wisconsin 2007-09-09 10:01:30 10:00:27 09:56:52 2
IM UK 2007-08-19 09:49:50 09:56:21 09:56:31 2
IM Austria 2007-07-08 09:39:23 09:51:27 09:56:33 6
IM Brasil 2007-05-27 09:44:14 09:56:08 09:57:07 6
IM Arizona 2007-04-15 11:33:07 11:37:11 10:07:48 10
IM New Zealand 2007-03-03 09:34:53 09:39:24 09:57:14 4
Challenge Wanaka 2007-01-20 09:58:35 10:01:09 09:59:32 3
IM Florida 2006-11-04 09:40:39 09:51:27 09:59:18 3
IM Wisconsin 2006-09-10 10:07:01 09:53:10 10:00:32 2
IM Austria 2006-07-16 09:30:37 09:42:58 10:01:49 4
IM Coeur d’Alene 2006-06-25 09:59:46 10:00:18 10:05:35 5
IM Arizona 2006-04-09 09:43:36 09:44:48 10:06:53 3
IM Brasil 2006-01-01 09:34:19 09:41:30 10:13:31 3
IM Canada 2005-08-29 10:36:56 10:34:27 10:25:50 11
IM Lake Placid 2005-07-24 10:31:33 10:26:19 10:21:13 10
IM Arizona 2005-04-09 10:15:40 10:15:40 10:15:40 7

Results for Maki Nishiuchi (JPN)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Hawaii 2011-10-15 10:36:33 10:38:04 10:23:50 25
IM Canada 2011-08-28 10:44:42 10:49:46 10:20:49 7
IM Korea 2011-07-03 09:56:28 10:04:13 10:13:23 2
IM Texas 2011-05-21 10:06:29 10:13:11 10:16:22 12
IM New Zealand 2011-03-05 10:16:48 10:18:23 10:17:50 9
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 10:31:57 10:26:45 10:17:25 34
IM Louisville 2009-08-28 10:04:03 10:07:46 10:07:46 6

Results for Ariane Monticeli (BRA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Regensburg 2011-08-07 11:03:14 11:18:09 10:23:55 7
IM Brasil 2011-05-29 09:17:25 09:39:02 10:00:01 3
IM Switzerland 2010-07-25 10:10:58 10:23:54 10:15:02 8
IM Wisconsin 2009-09-13 10:05:37 10:03:41 10:03:41 4

Results for Fernanda Keller (BRA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Melbourne 2012-03-24 10:26:28 10:36:56 10:37:57 16
IM Canada 2011-08-28 11:26:40 11:32:04 10:38:07 9
IM Germany 2011-07-24 11:07:02 11:20:39 10:29:57 12
IM Austria 2011-07-03 10:39:08 11:12:08 10:21:13 12
IM Brasil 2011-05-29 09:48:03 10:10:51 10:10:48 5
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 10:37:44 10:32:29 10:10:48 36
IM Louisville 2009-08-28 10:00:22 10:04:03 10:06:49 5
IM Brasil 2009-05-31 09:54:11 10:08:44 10:07:25 6
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 10:43:16 10:41:17 10:07:05 36
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 10:25:03 10:24:54 09:58:00 34
IM Brasil 2007-05-27 09:29:29 09:41:05 09:51:18 4
IM Hawaii 2006-10-21 09:50:35 09:46:07 09:54:15 17
IM Austria 2006-07-16 09:44:06 09:56:44 09:56:50 7
IM Brasil 2006-01-01 09:51:39 09:59:03 09:56:52 5
IM Hawaii 2005-10-15 10:10:30 10:09:53 09:55:39 29
IM Brasil 2005-05-28 09:39:46 09:39:46 09:39:46 2

Results for Silvia Fusco (BRA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Brasil 2011-05-29 10:18:38 10:42:38 10:38:33 9
IM Brasil 2010-05-30 10:15:56 10:35:25 10:35:53 7
IM Brasil 2009-05-31 10:21:54 10:37:08 10:36:21 11
IM Brasil 2006-01-01 10:26:24 10:34:14 10:34:14 11

Results for Mariana Andrade (BRA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Cozumel 2011-11-27 11:36:34 11:54:04 11:01:14 15
IM Brasil 2011-05-29 09:49:41 10:12:33 10:38:03 6
IM Brasil 2010-05-30 10:19:51 10:39:28 10:53:41 8
IM Brasil 2009-05-31 10:32:27 10:47:56 11:05:49 13
IM Brasil 2007-05-27 11:23:48 11:37:43 11:37:43 15

Results for Alessandra Carvalho (BRA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Brasil 2011-05-29 10:19:49 10:43:51 11:03:13 10
IM Brasil 2007-05-27 11:50:05 12:04:33 12:04:33 20

Results for Vanessa Gianinni (BRA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

IM Texas 2012 – Analyzing Results

Race Conditions

The conditions in Texas were a lot better than in Lanzarote: It might have been hot, but the adjustment of 14:12 still allowed for some fast times. The male course record (8:08 by Eneko Llanos) was in danger, but held when Mathias Hecht faded on the run, and the old women’s record ( 8:57 by Cat Morrison) was beaten.

Male Results

Jordan Rapp raced a smart race and managed to win with a fantastic marathon time:

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Actual Time Expected Time
1 Jordan Rapp USA 00:53:36 04:25:43 02:46:55 08:10:44 08:17:27
2 Justin Daerr USA 00:55:27 04:33:51 02:48:33 08:22:15 08:37:38
3 Mathias Hecht SWI 00:48:54 04:18:17 03:11:29 08:22:58 08:28:07
4 Jozsef Major HUN 00:59:16 04:24:54 02:57:30 08:27:19 08:34:26
5 Brandon Marsh USA 00:48:48 04:35:39 03:01:02 08:30:18 08:53:49
6 Joe Umphenour 00:48:48 04:40:21 03:01:46 08:36:19 08:35:11
7 Rasmus Henning DNK 00:48:55 04:30:55 03:13:36 08:37:23 08:14:29
8 Christian Brader GER 00:59:19 04:33:32 03:01:53 08:39:07 08:47:04
9 Matthew Russell USA 01:04:47 04:39:52 02:53:25 08:42:50 08:52:51
10 Pedro Gomez POR 00:53:31 04:38:48 03:07:54 08:44:53 08:35:15
11 Jonathan Shearon 00:56:55 04:34:20 03:10:12 08:46:37 n/a
12 Mike Schifferle SWI 01:02:52 04:41:43 03:00:06 08:51:57 09:00:04
13 Jim Lamastra 00:53:31 04:45:43 03:11:34 08:55:20 n/a
14 Balazs Csoke HUN 00:48:50 04:36:27 03:38:48 09:09:02 08:53:49
15 Sergio Quezada MEX 00:53:29 05:02:54 03:33:29 09:36:26 09:57:54
16 Anthony Toth CAN 00:59:31 04:47:19 03:53:55 09:46:40 09:15:41

Jordan has recovered really well from his horrific bike accident, and seems to be on his way to become a serious Kona contender (once he decides to focus on Kona). Bike leader Mathias Hecht struggled on the run, and was also overtaken by Justin Daerr who snatched his third IM podium in a row (after Louisville and Florida 2011). Pre-race favorite Rasmus Henning also had problems on the run (although I didn’t hear any reports about the cause of his problems) and faded to a 7th place. However, he should already have enough Kona points to be able to qualify, so it’ll be interesting to see if he can perform better on the big island.

Female Results

On the women’s side, Mary Beth Ellis added another IM win to her resume:

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Actual Time Expected Time
1 Mary Beth Ellis USA 00:53:32 04:45:52 03:11:09 08:54:58 09:06:37
2 Caitlin Snow USA 00:55:32 05:08:54 02:51:46 09:01:32 09:27:47
3 Amy Marsh USA 00:53:33 04:45:51 03:20:13 09:04:00 09:15:54
4 Corinne Abraham 01:04:06 05:08:21 03:01:50 09:18:39 09:33:27
5 Charisa Wernick USA 00:59:11 05:07:33 03:16:28 09:27:43 09:56:18
6 Sarah Piampiano 01:03:13 05:09:00 03:30:18 09:47:38 09:56:52
7 Christie Sym AUS 00:59:09 04:58:48 03:53:01 09:55:56 09:47:15
8 Caroline Gregory USA 01:02:55 05:29:01 03:31:32 10:07:47 09:52:34
9 Jackie Pearce 01:11:33 05:15:30 03:36:28 10:09:39 n/a
10 Tami Ritchie 00:53:33 05:48:25 03:42:19 10:30:05 10:24:56
11 Sandra Soldan 00:53:37 05:37:23 04:04:15 10:42:06 n/a

Apparently, Mary Beth has planned her season so she can perform better in Kona – last year she had to win three summer IMs in order to qualify, this year she should already have enough points. Amy Marsh was leading the race with Mary Beth until after the bike and held on for third place. (The Marsh couple scored a 5th and a 3rd – not quite as good as the Bayliss’s 2nd and 2nd in Lanzarote.) Amy was overtaken by Caitlin Snow who posted a fantastic 2:51 marathon (good for third best overall run split). There seems to be some weird race for the slowest bike split within a sub-9h total race: Rinnie went 5:07:38 on the bike in Melbourne (but finished 9:04), now Caitlin went 5:08:54 (for a total 9:01). They both missed going sub-9h, so that “honor” still belongs to Chrissie Wellington who went 5:05:02 en route to a 8:57 in Australia 2009. (For the men, I have a 5:17:57 by Gerrit Schellens in Lanzarote 2005 – he finished 8:59:26.)

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