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IM South Africa 2012 – Analyzing Results

Race Conditions

This year’s IM South Africa was very slow. The adjustment was calculated at –5:49, so it was about 18 minutes slower than the 2011 race. I’m not sure what factors contributed to this, I have not heard horror stories of strong winds or too long swim courses, but the times were pretty slow even starting with the swim. (Please note that the adjustment is not influenced by the strength of the field, only by comparing expected and actual finishing times by each athlete.)

Male Results

Some of the pre race favorites didn’t start (Cunama) or made clear that they were just racing for fun (Tissink). The remaining favorite, Andi Böcherer, led after the bike, but dropped out at the 18k mark of the run, and Clemente Alonso won his first Ironman:

Rank Name Nation Actual Time Expected Time
1 Clemente Alonso-McKernan ESP 08:34:45 08:51:24
2 Cyril Viennot FRA 08:41:48 08:48:58
3 Mike Aigroz SWI 08:46:04 08:51:31
4 Markus Fachbach GER 08:57:21 08:51:43
5 Trevor Delsaut FRA 09:03:03 09:09:30
6 Petr Vabrousek CZE 09:09:57 09:02:56
7 Craig Twigg GBR 09:10:48 09:58:24
8 Sylvain Rota FRA 09:11:24 n/a
9 Kent Horner ZAF 09:14:39 09:24:02
10 Guilherme Manocchio BRA 09:20:56 08:49:15
11 Andrey Lyatskiy RUS 09:25:43 09:13:07
12 Michael Wetzel GER 09:26:33 09:21:59
13 Raynard Tissink ZAF 09:31:42 08:39:14
14 Ivan Albano BRA 09:40:30 09:26:11
15 Georg Swoboda AUT 09:42:51 08:56:35

As usual, a TOP 3 finish required to race faster than your predicted time and deliver a good performance – not much of a chance anymore to just show up, go through the motions and finish on the podium.

Female Results

On the women’s side, Natascha Badmann had a bad swim but a great bike and run and managed to overtake her countrywomen Simone Braendli for her fourth win in South Africa:

Rank Name Nation Actual Time Expected Time
1 Natascha Badmann SWI 09:47:10 09:39:30
2 Simone Braendli SWI 09:52:26 10:19:01
3 Diana Riesler GER 10:01:14 09:46:31
4 Dianne Mcewan ZAF 10:07:55 n/a
5 Susan Dietrich GER 10:08:02 09:47:28
6 Virginia Berasategui ESP 10:13:00 09:44:23
7 Emi Sakai JPN 10:28:03 n/a
8 Anne Basso FRA 10:33:12 10:32:12
9 Nina Pekerman ISR 10:34:24 n/a
10 Jacqui Gordon USA 10:41:13 10:17:28
11 Claire Horner ZAF 10:50:53 10:46:25
12 Kathrin Walther GER 11:30:13 n/a
13 Caroline Koll ZAF 11:56:21 10:52:04

Congratulations to Natscha – even with her having the best pre-race rating, I didn’t think she had another IM win in her. By winning, she became the oldest female winner of an Ironman at 45 years, 4 months and 16 days. Previously, Fernanda Keller had that record with her win in IM Brazil 2008 at the age of 44 years, 7 months and 21 days. I wish I was that fast!

IM South Africa 2012 – Predictions (Main Post)

As always, you can find additional information on the participants in the detail post.

Previous Results

With a course rating of 7:03, South Africa is one of the medium quick courses, comparable to IM France or IM Arizona. However, the adjustment has seen quite a lot of movement, so conditions on race day are going to have an influence on how quick the race is going to be. Last years winners were Raynard Tissink in 8:05:36 (in front of Andi Böcherer and James Cunnama) and Chrissie Wellington in a super-quick 8:33:56 (followed by Rachel Joyce and Diana Riesler).

Male Participants

The top three from last year are back:

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Raynard Tissink ZAF 08:27:00 08:33:42 20
2 Andi Boecherer GER 08:34:49 08:41:38 37
3 Cyril Viennot FRA 08:36:30 08:43:20 45
4 Guilherme Manocchio BRA 08:36:47 08:43:37 46
5 Clemente Alonso-McKernan ESP 08:38:53 08:45:45 58
6 Mike Aigroz SWI 08:39:00 08:45:52 59
7 Markus Fachbach GER 08:39:11 08:46:03 61
8 James Cunnama ZAF 08:40:30 08:47:23 71
9 Georg Swoboda AUT 08:43:56 08:50:52 91
10 Petr Vabrousek CZE 08:50:08 08:57:09 119
11 Alejandro Santamaria ESP 08:51:38 08:58:40 127
12 Jonathan Hotchkiss GBR 08:52:57 09:00:00 135
13 Trevor Delsaut FRA 08:56:33 09:03:39 156
14 Joseph Spindler GER 08:57:52 09:04:59 161
15 Andrey Lyatskiy RUS 09:00:05 09:07:14 178
16 Bruno Clerbout BEL 09:03:50 09:11:02 205
17 Michael Wetzel GER 09:08:45 09:16:00 234
18 Kent Horner ZAF 09:10:45 09:18:02 260
19 Ivan Albano BRA 09:12:50 09:20:09 282
20 Craig Twigg GBR 09:44:18 09:52:02 507
21 Freddy Lampret ZAF 10:17:50 10:26:00 708

These three athletes also top the odds:

  • Raynard Tissink: 39%
  • Andi Boecherer: 35%
  • James Cunnama: 11%
  • Mike Aigroz: 8%

Statistically, in addition to Tissink, Böcherer and Cunname only last year’s Hawaii TOP 10 athlete Mike Aigroz has a realistic chance of winning – all the other well rated athletes do not have enough results under their belt. However, any of these athlete may be able to surprise if they manage to race as well as they did last time – the ratings are close enough to promise an exciting race!

Update: Apparently, Ray Tissink has entered the race, but is not really aiming for a top finish. (He tweeted “let’s make it 100% clear, I’m not racing [for a fast time]. Going to have fun and experience what everybody else in the event does.”) Apparently, he is taking some time off Ironman, but is “not retired yet. Taking some time to get my head straight after a disappointing year. Will be back at IMSA next year.”

Update: Not only is Raynard Tissink out of contention, but James Cunnama has withdrawn and will not start. With these two changes, the odds change to

  • Andi Böcherer 51%
  • Markus Fachbach 14%
  • Mike Aigroz 14% 
  • Guilherme Manocchio 10%

Female Participants

While the men’s race looks quite close, the field on the women’s side is not as deep:

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Natascha Badmann SWI 09:25:51 09:33:20 22
2 Virginia Berasategui ESP 09:30:37 09:38:10 35
3 Diana Riesler GER 09:32:42 09:40:16 40
4 Susan Dietrich GER 09:33:38 09:41:13 42
5 Jacqui Gordon USA 10:02:56 10:10:54 126
6 Anne Basso FRA 10:17:18 10:25:28 176
7 Claire Horner ZAF 10:31:11 10:39:32 206
8 Caroline Koll ZAF 10:36:43 10:45:08 216
9 Jodie Swallow GBR n/a unrated n/a

Natascha Badmann still has the best rating of the field, but if she won it would be quite a surprise. Here’s a look at the odds for the race:

  • Virginia Berasategui: 41%
  • Natascha Badmann: 27%
  • Diana Riesler: 22%
  • Susan Dietrich: 6.%
  • Jacqui Gordon: 4%

Jodie Swallow is still on the start list, but she’s got a stress fracture in her foot and will not be able to start. (On her blog, she said that she has “to postpone Ironman South Africa victory until next year”.) My best wishes for a quick recovery!

IM South Africa 2012 – Predictions (Detail Post)

Male Race Participants

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Raynard Tissink ZAF 08:27:00 08:33:42 20
2 Andi Boecherer GER 08:34:49 08:41:38 37
3 Cyril Viennot FRA 08:36:30 08:43:20 45
4 Guilherme Manocchio BRA 08:36:47 08:43:37 46
5 Clemente Alonso-McKernan ESP 08:38:53 08:45:45 58
6 Mike Aigroz SWI 08:39:00 08:45:52 59
7 Markus Fachbach GER 08:39:11 08:46:03 61
8 James Cunnama ZAF 08:40:30 08:47:23 71
9 Georg Swoboda AUT 08:43:56 08:50:52 91
10 Petr Vabrousek CZE 08:50:08 08:57:09 119
11 Alejandro Santamaria ESP 08:51:38 08:58:40 127
12 Jonathan Hotchkiss GBR 08:52:57 09:00:00 135
13 Trevor Delsaut FRA 08:56:33 09:03:39 156
14 Joseph Spindler GER 08:57:52 09:04:59 161
15 Andrey Lyatskiy RUS 09:00:05 09:07:14 178
16 Bruno Clerbout BEL 09:03:50 09:11:02 205
17 Michael Wetzel GER 09:08:45 09:16:00 234
18 Kent Horner ZAF 09:10:45 09:18:02 260
19 Ivan Albano BRA 09:12:50 09:20:09 282
20 Craig Twigg GBR 09:44:18 09:52:02 507
21 Freddy Lampret ZAF 10:17:50 10:26:00 708

Female Race Participants

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Natascha Badmann SWI 09:25:51 09:33:20 22
2 Virginia Berasategui ESP 09:30:37 09:38:10 35
3 Diana Riesler GER 09:32:42 09:40:16 40
4 Susan Dietrich GER 09:33:38 09:41:13 42
5 Jacqui Gordon USA 10:02:56 10:10:54 126
6 Anne Basso FRA 10:17:18 10:25:28 176
7 Claire Horner ZAF 10:31:11 10:39:32 206
8 Caroline Koll ZAF 10:36:43 10:45:08 216
9 Jodie Swallow n/a unrated n/a

Results for Raynard Tissink (ZAF)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Hawaii 2011-10-15 08:22:15 08:23:45 08:33:42 7
IM South Africa 2011-04-10 08:05:36 08:16:25 08:35:12 1
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 08:20:11 08:21:11 08:37:59 5
IM South Africa 2010-04-25 08:23:28 08:30:52 08:40:29 1
IM Florida 2009-11-07 08:40:21 08:56:15 08:41:55 8
IM Wisconsin 2009-09-13 08:45:19 08:43:29 08:39:46 1
IM Louisville 2009-08-28 08:39:09 08:42:08 08:39:08 3
Challenge Roth 2009-07-12 08:07:18 08:26:54 08:38:32 7
Challenge Roth 2008-07-13 08:55:59 09:17:25 08:41:18 19
IM South Africa 2008-04-13 08:23:09 08:32:26 08:33:28 2
IM Western Australia 2007-12-01 08:09:19 08:24:52 08:33:44 2
IM Korea 2007-08-26 09:08:10 08:53:34 08:36:20 1
IM South Africa 2007-03-18 08:36:07 08:35:12 08:29:53 2
IM South Africa 2006-03-18 08:37:37 08:39:16 08:27:15 2
IM Hawaii 2005-10-15 08:25:52 08:25:22 08:20:11 7
IM Austria 2005-07-03 08:14:34 08:14:34 08:14:34 1

Results for Andi Boecherer (GER)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Hawaii 2011-10-15 08:23:19 08:24:49 08:41:38 8
IM South Africa 2011-04-10 08:08:36 08:19:29 08:46:24 2
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 09:24:34 09:25:42 08:55:05 51
IM Regensburg 2010-08-01 08:18:28 08:25:47 08:43:12 2
IM Canada 2009-08-30 08:53:37 08:57:43 08:53:20 6
IM Germany 2008-07-06 08:13:33 08:32:34 08:49:48 7
IM Lanzarote 2007-05-20 09:15:54 09:13:39 09:13:39 5

Results for Cyril Viennot (FRA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Hawaii 2011-10-15 08:37:00 08:38:32 08:43:20 15
IM Switzerland 2011-07-10 08:36:02 08:49:41 08:46:01 4
IM South Africa 2011-04-10 08:30:42 08:42:04 08:42:04 5

Results for Guilherme Manocchio (BRA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Brasil 2011-05-29 08:15:30 08:34:39 08:43:37 2
IM Brasil 2010-05-30 08:39:11 08:55:33 08:55:33 7

Results for Clemente Alonso-McKernan (ESP)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Switzerland 2011-07-10 08:27:56 08:41:22 08:45:45 2
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 08:48:53 08:44:04 08:49:31 17
IM France 2009-06-28 08:48:59 08:55:26 08:55:26 4

Results for Mike Aigroz (SWI)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Hawaii 2011-10-15 08:21:07 08:22:36 08:45:52 6
IM Switzerland 2011-07-10 08:38:21 08:52:04 08:51:42 5
IM St. George 2011-05-07 08:42:06 08:42:17 08:51:35 5
IM Switzerland 2010-07-25 08:34:24 08:44:55 08:55:19 3
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 09:18:34 09:13:29 09:00:14 44
IM Canada 2009-08-30 08:40:17 08:44:17 08:52:13 2
IM France 2008-06-22 08:56:43 09:03:24 09:03:24 6

Results for Markus Fachbach (GER)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Regensburg 2011-08-07 08:29:16 08:40:47 08:46:03 1
IM Florida 2010-11-06 08:25:25 08:41:20 08:47:36 4
IM Austria 2010-07-04 08:20:43 08:36:50 08:49:33 4
IM Wisconsin 2008-09-07 09:01:56 09:02:08 08:54:33 5
IM Germany 2008-07-06 08:19:29 08:38:44 08:52:15 8
IM Florida 2007-11-03 09:16:24 09:32:52 08:57:45 33
IM Hawaii 2006-10-21 08:45:06 08:41:15 08:40:02 24
Challenge Roth 2006-06-24 08:23:46 08:35:47 08:39:18 5
IM Florida 2005-11-05 08:41:22 08:43:31 08:43:31 3

Results for James Cunnama (ZAF)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM South Africa 2011-04-10 08:13:18 08:24:17 08:47:23 3
IM Florida 2010-11-06 08:15:59 08:31:36 08:52:50 1
Challenge Roth 2010-07-18 08:18:47 08:36:04 08:58:26 6
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 09:25:05 09:19:57 09:05:34 51
IM Austria 2009-07-05 08:14:18 08:29:32 09:00:38 2
IM South Africa 2009-04-05 08:55:24 09:06:54 09:15:06 6
IM South Africa 2008-04-13 08:52:17 09:02:06 09:21:22 10
IM South Africa 2007-03-18 09:48:38 09:47:35 09:47:35 13

Results for Georg Swoboda (AUT)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Florida 2008-11-01 08:31:57 08:49:55 08:50:52 8
IM Austria 2006-07-16 08:41:32 08:52:39 08:51:56 14
IM Austria 2005-07-03 08:50:57 08:50:57 08:50:57 16

Results for Petr Vabrousek (CZE)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Melbourne 2012-03-24 08:29:25 08:37:52 08:57:09 13
Challenge Wanaka 2012-01-21 09:15:21 09:10:21 08:58:02 6
IM Western Australia 2011-12-04 08:35:08 08:43:32 08:57:28 6
IM Hawaii 2011-10-15 09:13:42 09:15:21 08:58:07 30
IM Texas 2011-05-21 08:37:59 08:43:31 08:57:19 9
IM St. George 2011-05-07 09:11:11 09:11:23 08:57:55 9
IM South Africa 2011-04-10 08:40:36 08:52:11 08:57:18 8
IM New Zealand 2011-03-05 08:58:30 08:59:42 08:57:32 6
Challenge Wanaka 2011-01-15 09:27:44 09:29:33 08:57:26 5
IM Cozumel 2010-11-28 08:39:52 08:50:03 08:55:56 8
IM Florida 2010-11-06 08:29:59 08:46:03 08:56:13 7
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 08:56:26 08:57:30 08:56:42 41
IM Canada 2010-08-29 08:39:16 08:46:52 08:56:40 4
IM Lake Placid 2010-07-25 08:46:33 08:50:57 08:57:10 2
IM Brasil 2010-05-30 08:36:15 08:52:31 08:57:29 6
IM St. George 2010-05-01 09:09:43 09:04:20 08:57:45 6
Challenge Wanaka 2010-01-16 09:00:08 09:00:39 08:57:24 4
IM Western Australia 2009-12-05 08:57:08 09:12:54 08:57:14 10
IM Arizona 2009-11-22 08:37:45 08:47:03 08:56:23 10
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 09:23:03 09:17:56 08:56:55 48
IM Wisconsin 2009-09-13 09:08:26 09:06:31 08:55:43 7
IM Lake Placid 2009-07-26 09:10:24 09:09:46 08:55:04 6
Challenge Roth 2009-07-12 08:15:03 08:34:58 08:54:11 10
IM Brasil 2009-05-31 08:37:18 08:50:06 08:55:24 3
IM South Africa 2009-04-05 08:36:07 08:47:12 08:55:45 3
Challenge Wanaka 2009-01-01 08:44:38 08:50:16 08:56:19 2
IM Arizona 2008-11-23 08:28:09 08:34:47 08:56:43 8
IM Florida 2008-11-01 08:23:00 08:40:39 08:58:14 3
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 09:04:42 09:02:27 08:59:30 31
IM Lake Placid 2008-07-20 08:55:20 08:54:10 08:59:16 2
IM Switzerland 2008-07-13 08:53:05 09:05:30 08:59:40 6
IM Brasil 2008-05-25 08:53:58 09:03:18 08:59:11 4
IM Australia 2008-04-06 09:11:11 09:14:01 08:58:50 11
Challenge Wanaka 2008-01-19 09:09:36 09:13:00 08:57:26 6
IM Western Australia 2007-12-01 08:27:15 08:43:22 08:55:58 10
IM Florida 2007-11-03 08:53:05 09:08:51 08:57:13 21
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 09:42:26 09:42:03 08:55:58 56
IM Louisville 2007-08-26 10:58:00 10:59:48 08:50:29 22
IM Germany 2007-07-01 08:22:31 08:36:25 08:50:29 5
IM Brasil 2007-05-27 08:40:42 08:51:41 08:52:13 6
IM Arizona 2007-04-15 08:41:59 08:44:53 08:52:18 4
IM South Africa 2007-03-18 08:48:19 08:47:23 08:53:25 4
IM Hawaii 2006-10-21 09:10:45 09:06:42 08:54:28 47
IM Lake Placid 2006-07-23 09:03:12 08:55:50 08:52:14 7
IM Arizona 2006-04-09 08:44:54 08:45:52 08:51:29 8
IM South Africa 2006-03-18 08:38:52 08:40:31 08:52:48 3
IM Western Australia 2005-11-27 08:36:05 08:38:20 08:56:27 5
IM Hawaii 2005-10-15 09:12:17 09:11:44 09:33:57 50
IM Wisconsin 2005-09-11 11:19:03 11:00:54 09:42:05 23
IM Brasil 2005-05-28 09:06:45 09:06:45 08:58:25 6
IM Arizona 2005-04-09 08:49:46 08:49:46 08:49:46 4

Results for Alejandro Santamaria (ESP)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Melbourne 2012-03-24 08:41:15 08:49:54 08:58:40 17
IM Cozumel 2011-11-27 08:32:50 08:45:41 09:00:57 3
IM France 2011-06-26 09:07:39 09:11:39 09:05:42 8
IM St. George 2011-05-07 09:04:38 09:04:50 09:03:26 7
IM Cozumel 2009-11-29 08:57:04 09:02:40 09:02:37 3
IM Korea 2007-08-26 09:50:52 09:35:08 09:02:35 6
IM Western Australia 2006-12-03 08:41:50 08:49:02 08:47:02 6
IM UK 2006-08-16 08:54:42 08:56:49 08:45:47 4
IM Austria 2005-07-03 08:30:33 08:30:33 08:30:33 6

Results for Jonathan Hotchkiss (GBR)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
Challenge Cairns 2011-06-05 08:42:49 08:50:50 09:00:00 7
IM Western Australia 2010-12-05 08:31:02 08:42:38 09:06:20 6
IM Switzerland 2009-07-12 09:28:09 09:41:47 09:41:47 18

Results for Trevor Delsaut (FRA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Cozumel 2011-11-27 08:44:03 08:57:11 09:03:39 6
IM France 2011-06-26 08:54:59 08:58:54 09:05:19 6
IM South Africa 2011-04-10 08:41:57 08:53:34 09:07:12 9
IM Cozumel 2010-11-28 08:32:24 08:42:26 09:12:27 5
IM Austria 2010-07-04 08:33:27 08:49:59 09:28:18 7
IM Switzerland 2008-07-13 09:27:44 09:40:57 10:02:24 19
IM France 2008-06-22 10:16:31 10:24:12 10:24:12 20

Results for Joseph Spindler (GER)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Lanzarote 2009-05-23 09:13:17 09:10:17 09:04:59 9
IM Switzerland 2008-07-13 08:54:44 09:07:11 09:03:18 8
Challenge Wanaka 2008-01-19 08:47:49 08:51:05 09:02:01 1
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 09:12:19 09:11:57 09:06:25 36
IM Switzerland 2007-06-24 08:51:59 09:04:45 09:03:07 6
IM Florida 2006-11-04 08:53:42 09:01:10 09:01:10 9

Results for Andrey Lyatskiy (RUS)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Cozumel 2011-11-27 08:43:05 08:56:11 09:07:14 5
IM Germany 2011-07-24 09:07:09 09:19:26 09:19:26 20

Results for Bruno Clerbout (BEL)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Cozumel 2011-11-27 08:47:07 09:00:19 09:11:02 8
IM Wales 2011-09-11 09:07:59 08:59:01 09:13:08 3
IM St. George 2011-05-07 09:37:12 09:37:24 09:16:20 14
IM Arizona 2010-11-21 09:13:33 09:25:52 09:10:55 22
IM France 2010-06-27 08:53:15 09:06:32 09:06:34 4
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 08:55:11 08:50:19 09:06:35 24
IM France 2009-06-28 08:58:02 09:04:35 09:13:04 6
IM France 2008-06-22 09:22:52 09:29:53 09:17:58 11
IM France 2007-06-24 08:46:30 08:53:44 09:08:54 4
IM France 2006-06-24 09:20:48 09:29:08 09:29:08 9

Results for Michael Wetzel (GER)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Cozumel 2011-11-27 09:07:02 09:20:44 09:16:00 15
IM Germany 2011-07-24 08:58:40 09:10:46 09:10:46 17

Results for Kent Horner (ZAF)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM South Africa 2011-04-10 08:58:39 09:10:38 09:18:02 12
IM South Africa 2010-04-25 09:19:32 09:27:46 09:27:46 11

Results for Ivan Albano (BRA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Arizona 2011-11-19 09:01:14 09:14:46 09:20:09 30
IM Louisville 2011-08-28 09:21:39 09:32:06 09:21:06 5
IM Brasil 2011-05-29 08:48:57 09:09:24 09:18:54 7
IM Brasil 2010-05-30 08:54:05 09:10:55 09:21:04 9
IM Cozumel 2009-11-29 09:23:59 09:29:51 09:23:10 9
IM Brasil 2009-05-31 09:04:38 09:18:06 09:21:43 10
IM Louisville 2008-08-27 10:31:50 10:28:02 09:22:33 17
IM Brasil 2008-05-25 08:58:55 09:08:21 09:07:28 7
IM Florida 2007-11-03 08:50:46 09:06:28 09:07:14 18
IM Louisville 2007-08-26 09:11:09 09:12:40 09:07:28 9
IM Hawaii 2006-10-21 09:15:57 09:11:52 09:05:23 52
IM Brasil 2006-01-01 08:45:00 08:51:16 09:02:25 8
IM Wisconsin 2005-09-11 09:27:56 09:12:46 09:08:46 7
IM Brasil 2005-05-28 09:04:25 09:04:25 09:04:25 5

Results for Craig Twigg (GBR)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM South Africa 2011-04-10 09:10:01 09:22:16 09:52:02 16
IM UK 2010-08-01 10:21:02 10:28:21 10:28:21 9

Results for Freddy Lampret (ZAF)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM South Africa 2011-04-10 10:46:11 11:00:34 10:26:00 23
IM South Africa 2008-04-13 14:05:39 14:21:15 09:46:04 23
IM France 2007-06-24 09:37:48 09:45:44 09:46:04 18
IM South Africa 2007-03-18 09:56:29 09:55:25 09:46:17 16
IM Brasil 2006-01-01 09:26:35 09:33:21 09:33:21 17

Results for Natascha Badmann (SWI)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Hawaii 2011-10-15 09:31:21 09:33:03 09:33:20 14
IM Lanzarote 2011-05-21 09:43:39 09:38:29 09:33:30 2
IM South Africa 2007-03-18 09:22:01 09:21:01 09:28:30 1
IM Hawaii 2006-10-21 09:38:52 09:34:37 09:31:44 10
IM South Africa 2006-03-18 09:46:38 09:48:30 09:29:55 1
IM Hawaii 2005-10-15 09:09:30 09:08:57 09:08:57 1

Results for Virginia Berasategui (ESP)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Hawaii 2011-10-15 09:19:52 09:21:32 09:38:10 10
IM Germany 2011-07-24 09:37:00 09:49:57 09:42:42 10
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 09:16:47 09:17:54 09:40:12 4
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 09:15:28 09:10:25 09:48:36 3
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 09:29:15 09:26:54 10:03:36 6
IM Lanzarote 2008-05-24 10:22:36 10:19:35 10:18:59 5
IM France 2007-06-24 10:07:24 10:15:44 10:18:37 4
IM Hawaii 2005-10-15 10:31:59 10:31:21 10:21:05 37
IM Lanzarote 2005-06-04 10:09:40 10:09:40 10:09:40 1

Results for Diana Riesler (GER)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM UK 2011-07-31 09:25:41 09:37:13 09:40:16 2
IM Austria 2011-07-03 08:53:34 09:20:52 09:41:03 3
IM South Africa 2011-04-10 09:20:37 09:33:06 09:47:54 3
IM Germany 2010-07-04 09:27:37 09:40:52 09:54:48 4
IM Australia 2010-03-28 09:57:04 10:06:03 10:03:06 4
IM Austria 2009-07-05 09:41:33 09:59:28 09:59:28 7

Results for Susan Dietrich (GER)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Arizona 2011-11-19 09:19:47 09:33:47 09:41:13 9
IM Germany 2011-07-24 09:28:08 09:40:53 09:45:55 8
IM Germany 2010-07-04 09:39:12 09:52:43 09:52:43 7

Results for Jacqui Gordon (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Lake Placid 2011-07-24 10:07:22 10:09:38 10:10:54 5
IM Texas 2011-05-21 09:27:20 09:33:24 10:11:08 8
IM Florida 2010-11-06 10:09:42 10:28:54 10:19:06 9
IM Lake Placid 2009-07-26 10:08:19 10:07:37 10:16:56 6
IM South Africa 2009-04-05 09:46:26 09:59:02 10:18:37 4
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 10:20:49 10:18:15 10:22:29 26
IM Louisville 2008-08-27 10:26:03 10:22:17 10:23:21 7
IM Lake Placid 2008-07-20 10:31:53 10:30:30 10:23:37 6
IM Arizona 2008-04-13 10:32:32 10:36:27 10:21:25 14
IM Florida 2007-11-03 09:51:46 10:09:16 10:15:04 15
IM Canada 2007-08-26 10:29:13 10:29:41 10:18:30 14
IM Hawaii 2006-10-21 10:08:41 10:04:13 10:04:13 26

Results for Anne Basso (FRA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Cozumel 2011-11-27 10:18:53 10:34:23 10:25:28 10
IM Florida 2010-11-06 09:37:37 09:55:49 10:19:07 7
IM France 2010-06-27 10:29:18 10:44:58 10:44:58 9

Results for Claire Horner (ZAF)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM South Africa 2011-04-10 10:11:55 10:25:32 10:39:32 11
IM South Africa 2010-04-25 10:48:27 10:57:59 10:57:59 13

Results for Caroline Koll (ZAF)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM South Africa 2011-04-10 10:37:39 10:51:51 10:45:08 13
IM South Africa 2010-04-25 10:24:25 10:33:36 10:43:05 11
IM Cozumel 2009-11-29 12:35:24 12:43:16 10:45:57 12
IM France 2009-06-28 10:44:45 10:52:36 10:45:57 13
IM South Africa 2009-04-05 10:08:35 10:21:39 10:43:52 5
IM South Africa 2008-04-13 10:05:58 10:17:09 10:53:05 6
IM Korea 2007-08-26 12:31:09 12:11:09 11:09:28 6
IM South Africa 2007-03-18 10:49:22 10:48:13 10:31:39 10
IM Korea 2006-08-27 10:09:15 10:12:13 10:12:13 3

Results for Jodie Swallow ( )

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

IM Melbourne 2012 – Analyzing Results

Race Conditions

This was the first time that IM Melbourne was held. It was a really exciting race with very strong fields and fast times. The course itself was pretty quick (course rating of 8:58 – similar to Arizona and Cozumel), but not crazy quick such as Austria or Roth (almost 17 and 19 minutes). This makes the really fast times by Crowie and Caroline Steffen that much more impressive! It also goes to show that good, deep fields keep the athletes “honest” and help in pushing everyone to their limits.

Male Results

On the men’s side, Crowie battled Cam on the run and managed to pull off his first sub 8:

Rank Name Nation Actual Time Expected Time
1 Craig Alexander AUS 07:57:44 08:09:14
2 Cameron Brown NZL 08:00:12 08:23:31
3 Frederik Van Lierde BEL 08:01:26 08:32:31
4 Eneko Llanos ESP 08:02:23 08:14:11
5 David Dellow AUS 08:04:19 08:40:51
6 Paul Matthews USA 08:05:58 n/a
7 Luke Bell AUS 08:10:38 08:41:54
8 Joe Gambles AUS 08:12:46 08:32:53
9 Marko Albert EST 08:18:04 08:26:34
10 Bart Aernouts BEL 08:18:17 n/a
11 Joshua Rix AUS 08:22:17 08:59:47
12 Romain Guillaume FRA 08:25:51 09:16:06
13 Petr Vabrousek CZE 08:29:25 08:49:06
14 Jens Petersen-Bach DNK 08:30:10 n/a
15 Todd Israel AUS 08:33:31 n/a
16 Esben Hovgaard DNK 08:38:51 08:40:03
17 Alejandro Santamaria ESP 08:41:15 08:51:58
18 Mitchell Anderson AUS 08:46:39 08:36:05
19 Lothar Leder GER 08:51:34 08:54:10
20 Sergio Marques PRT 08:54:14 08:57:03
21 Jason Shortis AUS 08:57:33 08:46:45
22 Matt White AUS 08:58:10 08:44:16
23 Joel Jameson GBR 08:59:28 08:55:27
24 Jens Grønbek DEN 09:00:36 n/a
25 Shinya Suganuma JPN 09:02:50 09:14:19
26 Greg Bennett USA 09:04:01 n/a
27 Fredrik Croneborg SWE 09:04:44 n/a
28 Justin Granger AUS 09:05:13 09:08:04
29 Finnbar Crennan AUS 09:14:44 n/a
30 Hiroyuki Nishiuchi JPN 09:18:01 09:17:18
31 Gudmund Snilstveit NOR 09:19:39 08:53:13
32 Johan Borg AUS 09:21:53 n/a
33 Simon Billeau FRA 09:25:22 08:44:33
34 Courtney Ogden AUS 10:23:45 08:39:08

Crowie’s performance in Melbourne was on the same level as his course-record win in Hawaii 2011. Cam Brown’s second place was his best performance by a long shot, both in absolute and adjusted times (his 8:00 is an adjusted 8:08, his best adjusted performances from the past were in the low 8:20s). It’s hard to pick out just a few performances .. there are just too many great results!

Female Results

On the women’s side, we saw another fantastic winning time by Caroline Steffen:

Rank Name Nation Actual Time Expected Time
1 Caroline Steffen SWI 08:34:51 09:19:50
2 Rachel Joyce GBR 08:46:09 09:20:07
3 Mirinda Carfrae AUS 09:04:00 09:00:59
4 Joanna Lawn NZL 09:06:53 09:27:01
5 Gina Crawford NZL 09:11:16 09:28:13
6 Rebekah Keat AUS 09:13:43 09:18:55
7 Jessica Jacobs USA 09:13:57 09:35:54
8 Carrie Lester AUS 09:18:25 09:33:45
9 Michelle Vesterby DNK 09:19:05 09:15:47
10 Belinda Granger AUS 09:26:21 09:34:21
11 Mareen Hufe GER 09:42:47 n/a
12 Katja Rabe GER 09:44:02 09:51:20
13 Suzanne Blackborrow AUS 09:50:40 10:31:29
14 Kate Murphy AUS 09:59:11 n/a
15 Dana Wagner GER 10:03:52 n/a
16 Fernanda Keller BRA 10:26:28 10:27:31
17 Conny Dauben GER 10:54:21 10:39:56
18 Marthe Eikre-Telle NOR 11:43:01 n/a

She had the fastest bike split ever by a female (4:35:29) and even if her run is not quite in Rinnie territory, she pulled off a finishing time that seemed to be reserved for Chrissie. Rachel Joyce had a great race as well and continues to improve. Rinnie’s third place might have been a disappointment for her Australian compatriots, but was actually quite a lot better than last year in New Zealand (even accounting for time lost with a flat) – I expect her to be on fire for Kona. Similar to Cam Brown on the men’s side, Jo Lawn delivered one of her career best performances in Melbourne. What a shame for these two that their home race had to be shortened!

I’d like to highlight one more athlete: Michelle Vesterby. She came into Melbourne virtually unknown and with just one IM result to her credit. Her performance in Melbourne is on the same level as her time from Arizona, and she seems to be a solid TOP 10 contender now. A ninth place in such a stellar field is nothing to sneeze at!

IM Melbourne 2012 – Predictions (Main Post)

As always, you can find additional information on the participants in the detail post.

As this is the first time that IM Melbourne is held, there are no previous results and also no expected finishing times. WTC has done a great job of building excitement for this race – touting it as the “Pacific Asian Championship” and designating it as 4000-points race has certainly helped. This results in large and strong fields for the PROs, even if the field is still a bit in motion with a couple of people entering the race after IM New Zealand became a 70.3.

Male Participants

The start list already shows a very large number of strong athletes, probably the strongest and deepest field we’ll see this year outside of Kona. In addition there is the issue of Craig Alexander: There were a lot of press releases announcing he would race, but as of March 11th he is not on the start list. Nonetheless, I have included him in my predictions:

Rank Name Nation Rating Rank
1 Craig Alexander AUS 08:17:41 2
2 Eneko Llanos ESP 08:22:36 5
3 Cameron Brown NZL 08:31:54 14
4 Clayton Fettell AUS 08:34:29 21
5 Marko Albert EST 08:35:26 23
6 Pete Jacobs AUS 08:37:47 27
7 Frederik Van Lierde BEL 08:41:10 33
8 Joe Gambles AUS 08:41:54 37
9 Mitchell Anderson AUS 08:44:34 49
10 Luke McKenzie AUS 08:45:23 54
11 Courtney Ogden AUS 08:48:05 72
12 Esben Hovgaard DNK 08:48:57 80
13 David Dellow AUS 08:49:45 85
14 Luke Bell AUS 08:50:49 88
15 Simon Billeau FRA 08:52:59 98
16 Matt White AUS 08:53:13 100
17 Jason Shortis AUS 08:55:42 112
18 Bert Jammaer BEL 08:57:19 118
19 Dan Brown PHI 08:58:05 123
20 Petr Vabrousek CZE 08:58:07 123
21 Alejandro Santamaria ESP 09:01:00 140
22 Gudmund Snilstveit NOR 09:02:16 147
23 Lothar Leder GER 09:03:12 152
24 Joel Jameson GBR 09:04:34 157
25 Sergio Marques PRT 09:06:15 169
26 Joshua Rix AUS 09:08:36 187
27 Paul Wisniewski POL 09:15:22 227
28 Justin Granger AUS 09:17:24 248
29 Shinya Suganuma JPN 09:22:59 292
30 Romain Guillaume FRA 09:25:35 313
31 Hiroyuki Nishiuchi JPN 09:26:57 326
32 Oyvind Johannessen Nor 09:57:51 535
33 Bart Aernouts BEL unrated n/a
34 Jens Grønbek DEN unrated n/a
35 Johan Borg AUS unrated n/a
36 Paul Matthews USA unrated n/a
37 Fredrik Croneborg SWE unrated n/a
38 Greg Bennett USA unrated n/a
39 Todd Israel AUS unrated n/a
40 Sylvain Sudrie FRA unrated n/a
41 Finnbar Crennan AUS unrated n/a
42 Jens Petersen-Bach DNK unrated n/a

Here are the winning odds:

  1. Craig Alexander: 40%
  2. Eneko Llanos: 33%
  3. Pete Jacobs: 11%
  4. Luke Bell: 7%
  5. Cam Brown: 3%

Crowie is  the clear favorite for the race, relatively closely followed by Llanos. Pete Jacobs chances are “only” at 11% – he has had some up-and-don performances in the last years (which hurt his rating and his chances), but he has been very solid in the last two years. We also have Greg Bennett’s first start in an Ironman – which will be closely followed but impossible to predict.

I think the main deciding factor for this race will be how sharp the athletes are going to be in March. Crowie and Pete haven’t raced since Kona, Eneko has raced Arizona in November. Then you have Cam Brown who is always very sharp for IM New Zealand – so he may have a better chance than his odds indicate.

Update March 13th: Pete Jacobs had to pull out of the race with a back injury. I wish him a speedy recovery and look forward to see him race in one of the summer IMs!

Female Participants

The female field is as strong as the men’s field, we have the second to fifth of Kona 2011 – and with Chrissie not racing this year we have the main Kona contenders:

Rank Name Nation Rating Rank
1 Mirinda Carfrae AUS 09:10:23 2
2 Michelle Vesterby DNK 09:25:14 8
3 Rebekah Keat AUS 09:28:33 9
4 Caroline Steffen SWI 09:29:10 10
5 Leanda Cave GBR 09:29:37 12
6 Rachel Joyce GBR 09:29:47 15
7 Joanna Lawn NZL 09:36:41 25
8 Tine Deckers BEL 09:37:02 28
9 Amanda Stevens USA 09:37:58 32
10 Gina Crawford NZL 09:37:58 32
11 Michelle Mitchell AUS 09:41:52 42
12 Carrie Lester AUS 09:43:06 44
13 Belinda Granger AUS 09:44:11 46
14 Jessica Jacobs USA 09:45:49 48
15 Silvia Felt GER 09:52:56 67
16 Sara Gross CAN 09:56:12 74
17 Dede Griesbauer USA 09:59:18 83
18 Katja Rabe GER 10:01:26 86
19 Elly Franks AUS 10:09:20 116
20 Maki Nishiuchi JPN 10:23:57 170
21 Fernanda Keller BRA 10:38:01 199
22 Suzanne Blackborrow AUS 10:40:43 208
23 Conny Dauben GER 10:50:49 228
24 Marthe Eikre-Telle NOR unrated n/a
25 Kate Murphy AUS unrated n/a
26 Anja Beranek GER unrated n/a
27 Inka Wachter GER unrated n/a
28 Mareen Hufe GER unrated n/a
29 Dana Wagner GER unrated n/a

One highly ranked, but pretty unknown athlete is Michelle Vesterby: Her only result is a 9:11 in Arizona 2011 and it’ll be interesting to see if she can post a similar result in Melbourne.

The winning odds:

  1. Mirinda Carfrae: 50%
  2. Leanda Cave: 22%
  3. Caroline Steffen: 10%
  4. Rachel Joyce: 7%
  5. Rebekah Keat: 4%

This field almost has “Kona strength”, with the three top contenders also being the top contenders for Kona. Similar to the men, it’ll be very interesting to see how sharp the athletes will be for a March race coming off their season break.

Update March 21:  Leanda Cave also had to pull out of the race.

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