IM Arizona 2012 – Predictions (Main Post)
If you are looking for additional information on the participants, you can find a full list of their pro results in the detail post.
Previous Year’s TOP 3
Male Race Results
Rank | Name | Nation | Swim | Bike | Run | Time |
1 | Eneko Llanos | ESP | 00:48:47 | 04:20:54 | 02:46:09 | 07:59:38 |
2 | Paul Amey | GBR | 00:48:47 | 04:22:37 | 02:45:55 | 08:01:29 |
3 | Victor Zyemtsev | USA | 00:52:17 | 04:35:02 | 02:43:30 | 08:14:36 |
Female Race Results
Rank | Name | Nation | Swim | Bike | Run | Time |
1 | Leanda Cave | GBR | 00:52:08 | 04:51:06 | 02:58:51 | 08:49:00 |
2 | Linsey Corbin | USA | 00:57:00 | 04:50:11 | 03:02:27 | 08:54:33 |
3 | Meredith Kessler | USA | 00:51:46 | 04:53:36 | 03:10:18 | 09:00:14 |
Course Records
Leg | Gender | Record | Athlete | Date |
Total | overall | 07:59:38 | Eneko Llanos | 2011-11-19 |
Swim | overall | 00:46:02 | Kieran Doe | 2008-11-23 |
Bike | overall | 04:20:54 | Eneko Llanos | 2011-11-19 |
Run | overall | 02:43:30 | Victor Zyemtsev | 2011-11-19 |
Total | female | 08:36:13 | Chrissie Wellington | 2010-11-21 |
Swim | female | 00:48:13 | Leanda Cave | 2008-11-23 |
Bike | female | 04:47:06 | Chrissie Wellington | 2010-11-21 |
Run | female | 02:52:56 | Chrissie Wellington | 2010-11-21 |
Course Rating
Course Rating for IM Arizona is 08:10.
Race Adjustments for IM Arizona
Year | Adjustment | Swim Adj. | # of Athletes | Rating | Swim Rating |
2005 | n/a | n/a | 0 | n/a | n/a |
2006 | 04:19 | -00:55 | 29 | 04:19 | -00:55 |
2007 | 05:26 | -01:11 | 27 | 04:52 | -01:03 |
2008 | 05:01 | -01:04 | 38 | 04:55 | -01:03 |
2008 | 07:52 | 00:39 | 54 | 05:39 | -00:38 |
2009 | 10:38 | -01:32 | 37 | 06:39 | -00:49 |
2010 | 10:59 | -01:13 | 46 | 07:22 | -00:53 |
2011 | 12:58 | -01:07 | 58 | 08:10 | -00:55 |
Male Race Participants
I can almost copy what I’ve written about the field for IM Florida: A large field, but no real rockstars. We still have a few well known names that could easily contend for the top 10 in Kona 2013, such as Tom Lowe, James Cunnama or Mathias Hecht. Add in a couple of other strong, but maybe not quite as experienced athletes such as Richie Cunningham or Jan Van Berkel in their second IMs or TJ Tollakson, Matty Reed or Justin Daerr that may just take the next step forward. (Update: I thought James was considering Arizona, but he’s racing in Cozumel. My bad.)
Again, similar to Florida, there may be quite a few changes in the start list, with more athletes entering late and some others withdrawing.
Rank | Name | Nation | Expected Time | Rating | Rank |
1 | Richie Cunningham | USA | 08:25:26 | 08:33:12 | 24 |
2 | Tom Lowe | GBR | 08:26:14 | 08:34:01 | 27 |
3 | Jan Van Berkel | SUI | 08:30:30 | 08:38:21 | 39 |
5 | Mathias Hecht | SWI | 08:31:02 | 08:38:53 | 42 |
6 | Stephan Vuckovic | GER | 08:34:15 | 08:42:09 | 49 |
7 | TJ Tollakson | USA | 08:36:30 | 08:44:26 | 62 |
8 | Georg Potrebitsch | GER | 08:37:22 | 08:45:19 | 68 |
9 | Torsten Abel | GER | 08:37:54 | 08:45:52 | 73 |
10 | Matty Reed | USA | 08:38:53 | 08:46:51 | 79 |
11 | Justin Daerr | USA | 08:40:55 | 08:48:55 | 88 |
12 | Fraser Cartmell | GBR | 08:48:36 | 08:56:43 | 133 |
13 | Swen Sundberg | GER | 08:48:38 | 08:56:45 | 134 |
14 | Matthew Russell | USA | 08:52:18 | 09:00:29 | 153 |
15 | Kevin Taddonio | USA | 08:52:45 | 09:00:56 | 156 |
16 | Domenico Passuello | ITA | 08:54:10 | 09:02:23 | 166 |
17 | Luke Dragstra | NZL | 08:58:14 | 09:06:30 | 191 |
18 | Ian Mikelson | USA | 08:59:37 | 09:07:55 | 207 |
19 | Michael Wetzel | GER | 09:00:02 | 09:08:20 | 211 |
20 | Jarmo Hast | FIN | 09:02:05 | 09:10:25 | 231 |
21 | Markus Ressler | AUT | 09:03:55 | 09:12:17 | 237 |
22 | Dan Brown | PHI | 09:04:57 | 09:13:19 | 241 |
23 | Bryan Rhodes | NZL | 09:06:42 | 09:15:06 | 254 |
24 | Jared Milam | USA | 09:07:46 | 09:16:11 | 264 |
25 | Thomas Gerlach | USA | 09:16:11 | 09:24:44 | 328 |
26 | Kyle Marcotte | CAN | 09:18:07 | 09:26:42 | 346 |
27 | Brendan Halpin | USA | 09:20:36 | 09:29:13 | 364 |
28 | Anthony Toth | CAN | 09:21:44 | 09:30:22 | 370 |
29 | Adam O’Meara | CAN | 09:22:25 | 09:31:04 | 376 |
30 | Manuel Wyss | SWI | 09:22:59 | 09:31:38 | 385 |
31 | Lewis Elliot | USA | 09:25:25 | 09:34:06 | 399 |
32 | Daniel Mueller | GER | 09:26:12 | 09:34:54 | 407 |
33 | Tyler Butterfield | BMU | 09:26:38 | 09:35:20 | 410 |
34 | Jeff Paul | 09:29:51 | 09:38:36 | 423 | |
35 | Yeun Sik Ham | KOR | 09:32:31 | 09:41:19 | 439 |
36 | Blake Becker | USA | 09:34:49 | 09:43:39 | 458 |
37 | Matjaz Kovac | SVN | 09:43:30 | 09:52:28 | 522 |
38 | Jozef Vrabel | SVK | 09:45:47 | 09:54:47 | 538 |
39 | Heath Thurston | USA | 09:54:43 | 10:03:51 | 593 |
40 | Timothy Beardall | AUS | 10:00:15 | 10:09:28 | 627 |
41 | Nils Frommhold | n/a | unrated | n/a | |
42 | Richard Allen | GBR | n/a | unrated | n/a |
43 | Nicolas Hemet | n/a | unrated | n/a | |
44 | Jose Rosales-Yepez | USA | n/a | unrated | n/a |
45 | Adam Bohach | n/a | unrated | n/a | |
46 | Jason Watson | n/a | unrated | n/a | |
47 | Derek Garcia | n/a | unrated | n/a | |
48 | Christopher Ganter | n/a | unrated | n/a | |
49 | Alun Woodward | GBR | n/a | unrated | n/a |
50 | Marek Jaskolka | n/a | unrated | n/a | |
51 | Anu Vaidyanathan | IND | n/a | unrated | n/a |
Update: There are a few well know athletes that are not on the start list but have announced that they will start in Arizona:
Jordan Rapp (rated 8:27:33)(Update3: The Rappstar isn’t starting after all: He crashed on a bike ride, separated his shoulder and dislocated a finger. More on his blog.Andy Potts (rated 8:28:13)(Update2: Pottsy tweeted that he ended his season after the Austin 70.3.)
Female Race Participants
On the women’s side, Kona winner Leanda Cave looks to become the second person securing a Kona spot (after Rinnie validated in Florida). She did the same Kona – Arizona couple last year, and what success it was (both in 2011 and 2012)! But with some of the other athletes in the race (most notably Linsey, Meredith and Kelly), she has to be in top form to repeat her 2011 win.
Rank | Name | Nation | Expected Time | Rating | Rank |
1 | Leanda Cave | GBR | 09:15:26 | 09:23:58 | 11 |
2 | Linsey Corbin | USA | 09:16:34 | 09:25:07 | 13 |
3 | Meredith Kessler | USA | 09:22:23 | 09:31:02 | 21 |
4 | Kelly Williamson | USA | 09:22:51 | 09:31:30 | 23 |
5 | Corinne Abraham | GBR | 09:27:48 | 09:36:32 | 35 |
6 | Mirjam Weerd | NLD | 09:33:56 | 09:42:45 | 49 |
7 | Jessica Smith | USA | 09:39:40 | 09:48:34 | 67 |
8 | Tamara Kozulina | UKR | 09:39:42 | 09:48:37 | 67 |
9 | Sarah Piampiano | USA | 09:44:38 | 09:53:37 | 82 |
10 | Sara Gross | CAN | 09:45:45 | 09:54:45 | 85 |
11 | Uli Bromme | USA | 09:48:21 | 09:57:23 | 93 |
12 | Charisa Wernick | USA | 09:49:20 | 09:58:23 | 96 |
13 | Janelle Morrison | CAN | 09:49:27 | 09:58:31 | 97 |
14 | Kristin Lie | NOR | 09:55:49 | 10:04:58 | 121 |
15 | Jacqui Gordon | USA | 10:00:31 | 10:09:45 | 140 |
16 | Nina Pekerman | ISR | 10:01:55 | 10:11:10 | 145 |
17 | Malaika Homo | USA | 10:05:09 | 10:14:27 | 150 |
18 | Natasha Van der Merwe | USA | 10:08:48 | 10:18:09 | 163 |
19 | Beth Shutt | USA | 10:13:19 | 10:22:45 | 179 |
20 | Cindy Lewis | 10:16:33 | 10:26:02 | 185 | |
21 | Trish Deim | USA | 10:21:05 | 10:30:38 | 196 |
22 | Amber Ferreira | USA | 10:25:12 | 10:34:48 | 204 |
23 | Leslie Lamacchia | USA | 10:28:08 | 10:37:47 | 211 |
24 | Erin Young | 10:39:51 | 10:49:41 | 235 | |
25 | Kathrin Mannweiler | GER | 11:03:53 | 11:14:05 | 261 |
26 | Kim Schwabenbauer | n/a | unrated | n/a |
Winning Odds
Male Race Participants (updated)
The addition of Pottsy and Rappstar completely change the odds:
Jordan Rapp: 47% (1-1)
TJ Tollakson: 12% (7-1)
Tom Lowe: 11% (8-1)
Mathias Hecht: 11% (8-1)
Torsten Abel: 9% (10-1)
Georg Potrebitsch: 3% (38-1)
Female Race Participants
Leanda Cave: 44% (1-1)
Linsey Corbin: 29% (3-1)
Meredith Kessler: 15% (6-1)
Kelly Williamson: 7% (14-1)
Mirjam Weerd: 4% (26-1)