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IM Brazil 2012 – Analyzing Results

Race Conditions

Course and conditions were pretty fast in Brazil, the adjustment was 20:38, about the same as last year, resulting in a new course rating of 14:05.

Male Results

Ezequil Morales used a fast run to pull into the lead in the final 10k of the run:

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Actual Time Expected Time
1 Ezequiel Morales ARG 00:50:11 04:34:30 02:57:59 08:22:40 08:39:16
2 Santiago Ascenco BRA 00:48:04 04:26:51 03:10:36 08:25:31 08:20:40
3 Igor Amorelli BRA 00:44:17 04:34:38 03:09:01 08:27:56 n/a
4 Guilherme Manocchio BRA 00:48:02 04:33:12 03:08:21 08:29:35 08:36:25
5 Lucas Cocha ARG 00:47:36 04:32:03 03:10:54 08:30:33 09:22:09
6 Raul Furtado BRA 00:49:57 04:27:29 03:15:01 08:32:27 08:53:10
7 Eduardo Sturla ARG 00:50:03 04:28:50 03:18:02 08:36:55 08:22:06
8 Mario De Elias ARG 00:48:47 04:43:16 03:08:59 08:41:02 08:57:15
9 Andrey Lyatskiy RUS 00:46:08 04:33:01 03:26:07 08:45:16 08:50:25
10 Luiz Francisco Ferreira BRA 00:44:04 04:43:10 03:18:44 08:45:58 09:02:02
11 Oscar Galindez ARG 00:49:50 04:29:18 03:27:03 08:46:11 08:43:34
12 Frank Silvestrin BRA 00:47:14 04:44:02 03:17:21 08:48:37 n/a
13 Thiago Vinhal BRA 00:46:02 04:50:22 03:12:41 08:49:05 n/a
14 Guto Antunes BRA 00:49:53 04:54:46 03:18:20 09:02:59 n/a
15 Hiroyuki Nishiuchi JPN 00:48:07 04:57:08 03:33:22 09:18:37 09:05:11
16 Geovani Muchinski BRA 00:52:39 04:37:11 03:49:04 09:18:54 n/a
17 Christian emiliano Carletto   00:52:33 04:59:45 03:40:12 09:32:30 09:29:22
18 Eneko Elosegui ESP 00:55:57 04:47:37 03:50:07 09:33:41 09:21:45
19 Santiago Amigo ARG 00:54:45 05:02:20 03:39:22 09:36:27 09:39:33
20 Antônio Marcos da souza da silva   00:46:46 04:59:09 04:07:46 09:53:41 n/a
21 Rodrigo Ferreira BRA 00:55:57 05:03:30 04:08:48 10:08:15 n/a
22 Marcio Roniak BRA 01:10:17 05:10:15 04:54:16 11:14:48 n/a

Female Results

On the female side, Sofie Goos won her second IM:

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Actual Time Expected Time
1 Sofie Goos BEL 00:52:42 04:59:24 03:25:36 09:17:42 09:22:08
2 Kim Loeffler USA 01:03:14 05:02:21 03:15:15 09:20:50 09:24:52
3 Vanessa Gianinni BRA 00:52:23 05:02:02 03:29:24 09:23:49 n/a
4 Sara Gross CAN 00:52:29 05:18:36 03:24:03 09:35:08 09:33:24
5 Ariane Monticeli BRA 00:58:51 05:16:04 03:24:40 09:39:35 10:00:02
6 Hillary Biscay USA 00:50:01 05:04:20 03:50:40 09:45:01 09:50:59
7 Maki Nishiuchi JPN 00:52:06 05:02:19 03:58:31 09:52:56 09:59:58
8 Mariana Andrade BRA 00:56:27 05:03:01 03:55:54 09:55:22 10:35:56
9 Ana Lidia Borba BRA 00:52:25 06:21:20 02:58:41 10:12:26 09:38:43
10 Alessandra Carvalho BRA 01:02:02 05:31:45 03:42:36 10:16:23 10:37:48

IM Cairns 2012 – Predictions (Main Post)

If you are looking for additional information on the participants, you can find a full list of their pro results in the detail post.

Previous Results

IM Cairns was held in 2011 as Challenge Cairns, and the race switched to the IM brand after WTC bought the race organizer USM Events. Last year’s race was won by Chris McCormack in 8:15:56 and Rebekah Keat in 9:26:31. The race was medium-quick with a course rating of 8:30, similar to IM France or IM Melbourne. As an Ironman, Cairns is a 2.000 points race with a large purse of 100.000 EUR (more than 130.000 US $).

Male Participants

Last year’s winner Chris McCormack is back to defend his title:

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Chris McCormack AUS 08:10:54 08:18:45 3
2 Cameron Brown NZL 08:20:45 08:28:45 10
3 David Dellow AUS 08:20:58 08:28:59 11
4 Todd Israel AUS 08:33:53 08:42:06 42
5 Aaron Farlow AUS 08:35:03 08:43:17 46
6 Luke Bell AUS 08:37:05 08:45:21 56
7 Luke McKenzie AUS 08:37:19 08:45:35 58
8 Mitchell Anderson AUS 08:38:47 08:47:05 67
9 Scott Neyedli GBR 08:42:32 08:50:53 91
10 Jimmy Johnsen DNK 08:45:10 08:53:34 101
11 Matty White AUS 08:47:12 08:55:38 111
12 Jason Shortis AUS 08:47:48 08:56:14 114
13 Petr Vabrousek CZE 08:49:22 08:57:50 121
14 Leon Griffin AUS 08:55:24 09:03:58 156
15 Bryan Rhodes NZL 09:05:19 09:14:02 226
16 Justin Granger AUS 09:08:16 09:17:02 247
17 Simon Cochrane NZL 09:09:40 09:18:27 268
18 Finnbar Crennan AUS 09:15:07 09:24:00 307
19 Jon Woods n/a unrated n/a
20 Michael Gee n/a unrated n/a

There’s a lot of speculation surrounding Macca, his attempt to qualify for the Olympics, the controversy about the Australian nominations, his potential “backup plan” of switching to IM racing later in the year and his potential lack of long distance fitness.

The winning odds show that Macca is the clear favorite, but that it won’t be an easy win for him and he faces quite a strong field:

  • Chris McCormack: 42%
  • Cameron Brown: 23%
  • Luke Bell: 14%
  • David Dellow: 11%
  • Luke McKenzie: 5%

The field is really strong and deep – notable athletes such as Bryan Rhodes and Justin Granger are only ranked #15 and #16. We know that Macca is under a “long term contract” to race Cairns (i.e. he is paid appearance money), and it seems that fro some others KPR points and price money is not the main reason they compete in Cairns.

Female Participants

As on the men’s side, last year’s winner Rebekah Keat is back to defend her title:

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Rebekah Keat AUS 09:18:59 09:27:55 11
2 Joanna Lawn NZL 09:25:09 09:34:11 20
3 Carrie Lester AUS 09:30:25 09:39:32 36
4 Michelle Mitchell AUS 09:34:04 09:43:15 42
5 Belinda Granger AUS 09:34:13 09:43:24 45
6 Candice Hammond NZL 09:43:37 09:52:57 69
7 Belinda Harper NZL 10:01:22 10:10:59 128
8 Emi Sakai JPN 10:11:32 10:21:19 163
9 Jodie Scott AUS 10:32:25 10:42:32 212
10 Amanda McKenzie USA 10:49:56 11:00:20 244
11 Rebecca Hoschke n/a unrated n/a
12 Melissa Rollison n/a unrated n/a
13 Ange Castle n/a unrated n/a

Bek is coming back from an injury break, so even if she is (Correction: Bek wasn’t injured, in fact she just raced IM Melbourne.)
Bek is the clear favorite, but she will have to deliver a good performance to win the race:

  • Rebekah Keat: 46%
  • Joanna Lawn: 28%
  • Carrie Lester: 9%
  • Belinda Granger: 7%
  • Belinda Harper: 6%
  • Michelle Mitchell: 5%

One other athlete of note is Melissa Rollison (now Hauschildt). The 70.3 world champion will race her first IM in Cairns. It will be interesting to see if she can race smart enough on the bike in order to be able to leverage her run strength. (Update: As noted on Triathlete magazine’s website, she’s got a leg injury and will walk the run in order to validate her Kona slot after winning the 70.3 championships.)

Ages of Kona winners

On the recent IM Talk podcast episode, Bevan and John started a discussion about how old athletes are when they win IM Hawaii. John gave me my next research project …

So, here is the data:

image

The female winners ages are the red squares, the male winners are blue dots.

I’ve highlighted some notable athletes:

  • Sylviane Puntous is the youngest winner (age 22 in 1983).
  • The youngest male winner was Scott Tinley in 1982 (age 25 in 1982).
  • Dave Scott’s first win came at the age of 26 (in 1980). Thomas Hellriegel was also 26 when he won in 1997.
  • Mark Allen’s six wins also stand out.
  • Paula Newby-Fraser’s 8 wins occurred over a span of 10 years (1986 to 1996).
  • Natascha Badmann took 6 wins over 7 years, her reign was broken twice by Lori Bowden.
  • The progression of the recent men’s winners looks like another dynasty, in fact it’s three different athletes (Stadler, McCormack and Alexander) that are almost the same age. Crowie is also the oldest male winner (38 in 2011) – so is it time for the younger generation?
  • The youngest recent winners were Faris Al-Sultan (27 in 2005) and Mirinda Carefrae (29 in 2010).

I couldn’t find the exact birth dates of some of the earlier winners, so if you can help me out, please let me know. Specifically I have no information on Robin Beck, Linda Sweeney and Kathleen McCartney, and only rough information on Gordon Haller, Tom Warren and Joanne Ernst.

IM Cairns 2012 – Predictions (Details Post)

Male Race Participants

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Chris McCormack AUS 08:10:54 08:18:45 3
2 Cameron Brown NZL 08:20:45 08:28:45 10
3 David Dellow AUS 08:20:58 08:28:59 11
4 Todd Israel AUS 08:33:53 08:42:06 42
5 Aaron Farlow AUS 08:35:03 08:43:17 46
6 Luke Bell AUS 08:37:05 08:45:21 56
7 Luke McKenzie AUS 08:37:19 08:45:35 58
8 Mitchell Anderson AUS 08:38:47 08:47:05 67
9 Scott Neyedli GBR 08:42:32 08:50:53 91
10 Jimmy Johnsen DNK 08:45:10 08:53:34 101
11 Matty White AUS 08:47:12 08:55:38 111
12 Jason Shortis AUS 08:47:48 08:56:14 114
13 Petr Vabrousek CZE 08:49:22 08:57:50 121
14 Leon Griffin AUS 08:55:24 09:03:58 156
15 Bryan Rhodes NZL 09:05:19 09:14:02 226
16 Justin Granger AUS 09:08:16 09:17:02 247
17 Simon Cochrane NZL 09:09:40 09:18:27 268
18 Finnbar Crennan AUS 09:15:07 09:24:00 307
19 Jon Woods n/a unrated n/a
20 Michael Gee n/a unrated n/a

Female Race Participants

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Rebekah Keat AUS 09:18:59 09:27:55 11
2 Joanna Lawn NZL 09:25:09 09:34:11 20
3 Carrie Lester AUS 09:30:25 09:39:32 36
4 Michelle Mitchell AUS 09:34:04 09:43:15 42
5 Belinda Granger AUS 09:34:13 09:43:24 45
6 Candice Hammond NZL 09:43:37 09:52:57 69
7 Belinda Harper NZL 10:01:22 10:10:59 128
8 Emi Sakai JPN 10:11:32 10:21:19 163
9 Jodie Scott AUS 10:32:25 10:42:32 212
10 Amanda McKenzie USA 10:49:56 11:00:20 244
11 Rebecca Hoschke n/a unrated n/a
12 Melissa Rollison n/a unrated n/a
13 Ange Castle n/a unrated n/a

Results for Chris McCormack (AUS)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Cairns 2011-06-05 08:15:56 08:23:44 08:18:45 1
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 08:10:37 08:11:32 08:17:47 1
IM Germany 2010-07-04 08:14:43 08:25:46 08:18:58 3
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 08:25:20 08:21:10 08:17:31 4
IM Germany 2009-07-05 08:03:05 08:19:55 08:16:45 3
IM Germany 2008-07-06 07:59:55 08:18:30 08:16:00 1
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 08:15:34 08:15:27 08:15:26 1
Challenge Roth 2007-06-24 07:54:23 08:13:35 08:15:26 1
IM Hawaii 2006-10-21 08:13:07 08:09:23 08:15:54 2
Challenge Roth 2006-06-24 08:00:52 08:12:26 08:17:35 1
IM Australia 2006-05-11 08:20:41 08:18:47 08:19:10 1
IM Hawaii 2005-10-15 08:23:52 08:23:22 08:19:20 6
Challenge Roth 2005-06-24 07:58:45 08:08:54 08:17:04 1
IM Australia 2005-04-08 08:25:45 08:25:45 08:25:45 1

Results for Cameron Brown (NZL)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Melbourne 2012-03-24 08:00:12 08:08:13 08:28:45 2
IM Germany 2011-07-24 08:31:47 08:42:14 08:31:57 7
IM New Zealand 2011-03-05 08:31:07 08:32:26 08:30:26 1
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 08:34:10 08:35:08 08:30:08 17
IM Germany 2010-07-04 08:18:33 08:29:41 08:29:20 4
IM New Zealand 2010-03-06 08:21:52 08:27:47 08:29:17 1
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 08:53:41 08:49:17 08:29:33 22
IM New Zealand 2009-03-07 08:18:05 08:25:39 08:25:41 1
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 08:26:17 08:24:43 08:25:42 5
IM Germany 2008-07-06 08:08:29 08:27:24 08:25:54 4
IM New Zealand 2008-03-01 08:24:49 08:31:43 08:25:32 1
IM New Zealand 2007-03-03 08:26:33 08:30:32 08:23:45 1
IM Hawaii 2006-10-21 08:25:22 08:21:32 08:21:53 8
IM Germany 2006-07-23 08:13:40 08:23:10 08:22:00 1
IM Hawaii 2005-10-15 08:19:36 08:19:06 08:21:29 2
IM Germany 2005-07-11 08:28:00 08:25:12 08:22:48 2
IM New Zealand 2005-05-03 08:20:15 08:20:15 08:20:15 1

Results for David Dellow (AUS)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Melbourne 2012-03-24 08:04:19 08:12:24 08:28:59 5
IM Cairns 2011-06-05 08:41:39 08:49:52 08:49:52 6

Results for Todd Israel (AUS)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Melbourne 2012-03-24 08:33:31 08:42:06 08:42:06 15

Results for Aaron Farlow (AUS)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
Challenge Wanaka 2012-01-21 08:41:53 08:37:26 08:43:17 1
IM Western Australia 2011-12-04 08:34:09 08:42:39 08:45:00 5
IM Wales 2011-09-11 09:04:25 08:55:27 08:45:56 2
IM UK 2011-07-31 08:24:34 08:35:01 08:40:20 1
IM Regensburg 2010-08-01 08:39:41 08:47:24 08:47:24 6

Results for Luke Bell (AUS)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Melbourne 2012-03-24 08:10:38 08:18:50 08:45:21 7
IM Texas 2011-05-21 08:12:22 08:17:48 08:50:51 3
IM Western Australia 2010-12-05 08:21:33 08:33:07 08:57:16 4
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 09:24:34 09:25:37 09:02:13 51
IM Coeur d’Alene 2010-06-27 08:43:16 08:48:53 08:56:30 4
IM Canada 2009-08-30 09:26:26 09:30:59 08:58:43 19
IM Western Australia 2008-12-07 09:15:09 09:31:07 08:49:08 18
IM Australia 2008-04-06 08:56:17 08:59:13 08:35:49 6
IM New Zealand 2007-03-03 08:27:41 08:31:40 08:27:31 2
IM Hawaii 2006-10-21 08:24:26 08:20:37 08:26:04 7
IM Brasil 2006-01-01 08:15:48 08:22:00 08:28:34 2
IM Hawaii 2005-10-15 08:33:43 08:33:12 08:32:19 13
IM Australia 2005-04-08 08:31:17 08:31:17 08:31:17 2

Results for Luke McKenzie (AUS)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Western Australia 2011-12-04 09:03:44 09:12:43 08:45:35 11
IM Hawaii 2011-10-15 08:25:42 08:26:55 08:41:48 9
IM Germany 2011-07-24 08:26:51 08:37:11 08:44:06 6
IM Texas 2011-05-21 08:52:07 08:58:00 08:45:16 13
IM Brasil 2010-05-30 08:07:38 08:23:04 08:42:50 1
IM Florida 2009-11-07 08:37:59 08:53:57 08:46:11 7
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 08:38:38 08:34:22 08:44:52 15
IM Louisville 2009-08-28 08:26:01 08:29:07 08:46:57 2
IM Western Australia 2008-12-07 08:12:45 08:26:55 08:51:10 3
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 09:02:17 09:00:36 08:56:56 29
IM Australia 2008-04-06 08:46:00 08:48:53 08:55:51 5
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 08:44:55 08:44:48 08:58:14 19
IM Coeur d’Alene 2007-06-23 08:53:43 08:55:52 09:03:53 6
IM Hawaii 2006-10-21 09:20:20 09:16:05 09:08:55 54
IM Lake Placid 2006-07-23 09:08:27 09:01:13 09:01:13 10

Results for Mitchell Anderson (AUS)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Melbourne 2012-03-24 08:46:39 08:55:27 08:47:05 18
IM Western Australia 2011-12-04 08:35:57 08:44:28 08:44:57 7
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 09:04:35 09:00:06 08:45:06 31
IM Australia 2009-04-05 08:56:21 08:59:13 08:42:08 10
IM Australia 2008-04-06 08:40:18 08:43:09 08:38:37 2
IM Western Australia 2007-12-01 08:12:19 08:28:12 08:37:47 3
IM Australia 2007-04-08 08:46:51 08:50:24 08:39:41 4
IM Western Australia 2006-12-03 08:18:00 08:24:56 08:37:35 2
IM Hawaii 2006-10-21 08:55:22 08:51:19 08:40:19 34
IM Austria 2006-07-16 08:30:16 08:41:18 08:37:24 9
IM Western Australia 2005-11-27 08:27:35 08:29:48 08:36:09 1
IM Hawaii 2005-10-15 08:37:29 08:36:58 08:38:30 14
IM Switzerland 2005-07-15 08:36:26 08:40:44 08:39:21 3
IM Australia 2005-04-08 08:37:51 08:37:51 08:37:51 3

Results for Scott Neyedli (GBR)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Arizona 2011-11-19 08:29:03 08:41:51 08:50:53 11
IM Australia 2011-05-01 08:47:16 08:55:25 08:52:26 4
IM Western Australia 2010-12-05 08:34:45 08:46:37 08:51:55 7
IM Canada 2010-08-29 08:41:36 08:49:43 08:52:53 6
IM Australia 2010-03-28 08:27:58 08:35:46 08:53:31 2
IM Western Australia 2009-12-05 08:17:47 08:32:35 08:57:22 2
IM Lanzarote 2009-05-23 09:04:29 09:01:45 09:03:30 6
IM UK 2008-09-07 09:04:30 09:03:06 09:03:58 2
IM New Zealand 2008-03-01 09:00:17 09:07:40 09:04:12 10
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 09:04:48 09:04:40 09:03:06 31
IM UK 2007-08-19 08:35:57 08:41:39 09:02:28 1
IM South Africa 2007-03-18 09:20:43 09:19:52 09:15:25 7
IM Switzerland 2006-07-02 08:57:29 09:09:58 09:09:58 10

Results for Jimmy Johnsen (DNK)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
Challenge Wanaka 2012-01-21 09:09:05 09:04:24 08:53:34 5
Challenge Wanaka 2011-01-15 09:16:45 09:18:52 08:49:53 4
IM Western Australia 2009-12-05 08:21:11 08:36:05 08:40:02 3
IM Australia 2009-04-05 08:33:43 08:36:27 08:41:20 4
IM Western Australia 2008-12-07 08:18:43 08:33:03 08:43:09 4
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 08:55:11 08:55:03 08:48:17 25
IM UK 2007-08-19 08:40:51 08:46:36 08:44:23 3
IM Western Australia 2006-12-03 08:34:31 08:41:41 08:41:41 3

Results for Matty White (AUS)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Melbourne 2012-03-24 08:58:10 09:07:09 08:55:38 22
IM Cairns 2011-06-05 08:28:36 08:36:36 08:53:21 2
IM Western Australia 2010-12-05 08:18:06 08:29:35 08:56:30 2
Challenge Roth 2010-07-18 09:17:36 09:37:19 09:01:43 17
IM Coeur d’Alene 2010-06-27 08:49:04 08:54:44 08:54:13 6
IM Australia 2010-03-28 08:36:39 08:44:35 08:54:05 4
IM Western Australia 2009-12-05 08:35:03 08:50:22 08:57:09 5
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 09:07:59 09:03:28 08:59:58 33
IM Australia 2009-04-05 08:50:59 08:53:49 08:57:39 8
IM Australia 2008-04-06 08:59:49 09:02:46 09:02:46 7

Results for Jason Shortis (AUS)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Australia 2012-04-29 08:40:02 08:49:17 08:56:14 3
IM Melbourne 2012-03-24 08:57:33 09:06:32 08:57:00 21
IM Western Australia 2011-12-04 08:27:31 08:35:54 08:55:52 3
IM Canada 2011-08-28 09:12:55 09:17:16 08:58:19 10
IM Lake Placid 2011-07-24 08:47:18 08:49:21 08:55:53 3
IM Australia 2011-05-01 08:46:07 08:54:15 08:56:49 3
IM Louisville 2010-08-29 10:12:54 10:16:26 08:57:13 13
IM South Africa 2010-04-25 08:34:52 08:42:38 08:45:38 4
IM Western Australia 2009-12-05 08:37:20 08:52:43 08:46:06 6
IM Lake Placid 2009-07-26 08:58:09 08:58:33 08:45:03 3
IM Australia 2009-04-05 09:02:22 09:05:16 08:42:49 11
IM Western Australia 2008-12-07 08:10:57 08:25:04 08:38:47 2
IM Wisconsin 2008-09-07 08:59:14 08:59:48 08:41:27 3
IM Western Australia 2007-12-01 08:35:43 08:52:22 08:37:23 12
IM Australia 2007-04-08 08:25:33 08:28:57 08:34:08 2
IM Western Australia 2006-12-03 08:03:55 08:10:39 08:35:16 1
IM Korea 2006-08-27 08:34:09 08:36:40 08:41:22 5
Challenge Roth 2006-06-24 08:30:55 08:43:12 08:42:46 8
IM Australia 2006-05-11 08:36:08 08:34:10 08:42:36 3
IM Hawaii 2005-10-15 08:57:06 08:56:34 08:47:47 36
Challenge Roth 2005-06-24 08:27:25 08:38:10 08:38:10 8

Results for Petr Vabrousek (CZE)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Lanzarote 2012-05-19 09:07:30 09:02:50 08:57:50 6
IM South Africa 2012-04-22 09:09:57 09:04:03 08:57:37 6
IM Melbourne 2012-03-24 08:29:25 08:37:56 08:57:20 13
Challenge Wanaka 2012-01-21 09:15:21 09:10:37 08:58:13 6
IM Western Australia 2011-12-04 08:35:08 08:43:39 08:57:39 6
IM Hawaii 2011-10-15 09:13:42 09:15:02 08:58:18 30
IM Texas 2011-05-21 08:37:59 08:43:42 08:57:31 9
IM St. George 2011-05-07 09:11:11 09:11:37 08:58:07 9
IM South Africa 2011-04-10 08:40:36 08:52:17 08:57:31 8
IM New Zealand 2011-03-05 08:58:30 08:59:53 08:57:46 6
Challenge Wanaka 2011-01-15 09:27:44 09:29:53 08:57:40 5
IM Cozumel 2010-11-28 08:39:52 08:50:13 08:56:09 8
IM Florida 2010-11-06 08:29:59 08:45:59 08:56:26 7
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 08:56:26 08:57:26 08:56:56 41
IM Canada 2010-08-29 08:39:16 08:47:21 08:56:55 4
IM Lake Placid 2010-07-25 08:46:33 08:50:29 08:57:24 2
IM Brasil 2010-05-30 08:36:15 08:52:35 08:57:46 6
IM St. George 2010-05-01 09:09:43 09:05:34 08:58:02 6
Challenge Wanaka 2010-01-16 09:00:08 09:00:56 08:57:38 4
IM Western Australia 2009-12-05 08:57:08 09:13:06 08:57:27 10
IM Arizona 2009-11-22 08:37:45 08:47:11 08:56:37 10
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 09:23:03 09:18:25 08:57:09 48
IM Wisconsin 2009-09-13 09:08:26 09:06:41 08:55:56 7
IM Lake Placid 2009-07-26 09:10:24 09:10:49 08:55:17 6
Challenge Roth 2009-07-12 08:15:03 08:35:38 08:54:21 10
IM Brasil 2009-05-31 08:37:18 08:49:58 08:55:32 3
IM South Africa 2009-04-05 08:36:07 08:47:29 08:55:54 3
Challenge Wanaka 2009-01-01 08:44:38 08:50:24 08:56:28 2
IM Arizona 2008-11-23 08:28:09 08:34:42 08:56:52 8
IM Florida 2008-11-01 08:23:00 08:42:12 08:58:24 3
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 09:04:42 09:03:01 08:59:34 31
IM Lake Placid 2008-07-20 08:55:20 08:53:44 08:59:18 2
IM Switzerland 2008-07-13 08:53:05 09:05:45 08:59:44 6
IM Brasil 2008-05-25 08:53:58 09:02:44 08:59:14 4
IM Australia 2008-04-06 09:11:11 09:14:12 08:58:56 11
Challenge Wanaka 2008-01-19 09:09:36 09:13:13 08:57:32 6
IM Western Australia 2007-12-01 08:27:15 08:43:37 08:56:03 10
IM Florida 2007-11-03 08:53:05 09:09:03 08:57:17 21
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 09:42:26 09:42:18 08:56:01 56
IM Louisville 2007-08-26 10:58:00 11:00:05 08:50:31 22
IM Germany 2007-07-01 08:22:31 08:36:38 08:50:31 5
IM Brasil 2007-05-27 08:40:42 08:51:18 08:52:14 6
IM Arizona 2007-04-15 08:41:59 08:45:03 08:52:21 4
IM South Africa 2007-03-18 08:48:19 08:47:31 08:53:28 4
IM Hawaii 2006-10-21 09:10:45 09:06:35 08:54:30 47
IM Lake Placid 2006-07-23 09:03:12 08:56:02 08:52:17 7
IM Arizona 2006-04-09 08:44:54 08:45:59 08:51:30 8
IM South Africa 2006-03-18 08:38:52 08:40:31 08:52:48 3
IM Western Australia 2005-11-27 08:36:05 08:38:20 08:56:27 5
IM Hawaii 2005-10-15 09:12:17 09:11:44 09:33:57 50
IM Wisconsin 2005-09-11 11:19:03 11:00:54 09:42:05 23
IM Brasil 2005-05-28 09:06:45 09:06:45 08:58:25 6
IM Arizona 2005-04-09 08:49:46 08:49:46 08:49:46 4

Results for Leon Griffin (AUS)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Australia 2012-04-29 08:55:54 09:05:26 09:03:58 4
IM Western Australia 2011-12-04 09:03:49 09:12:48 09:02:48 12
IM Cozumel 2009-11-29 13:30:58 13:39:48 08:39:11 16
IM Western Australia 2008-12-07 08:24:41 08:39:11 08:39:11 6

Results for Bryan Rhodes (NZL)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Canada 2011-08-28 09:23:24 09:27:50 09:14:02 15
IM Lake Placid 2010-07-25 10:18:40 10:23:17 09:10:08 25
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 08:53:35 08:51:56 08:51:10 22
IM Canada 2008-08-24 08:30:12 08:36:43 08:51:01 1
IM Florida 2007-11-03 08:26:52 08:42:03 08:54:06 3
IM UK 2007-08-19 09:36:07 09:42:29 08:56:34 21
IM Coeur d’Alene 2007-06-23 08:46:38 08:48:45 08:45:33 5
IM Hawaii 2006-10-21 08:59:13 08:55:08 08:44:36 36
IM Lake Placid 2006-07-23 09:00:18 08:53:10 08:41:11 6
IM Western Australia 2005-11-27 08:34:25 08:36:39 08:35:58 4
IM UK 2005-08-21 08:42:11 08:29:41 08:35:35 1
IM New Zealand 2005-05-03 08:42:01 08:42:01 08:42:01 3

Results for Justin Granger (AUS)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Melbourne 2012-03-24 09:05:13 09:14:19 09:17:02 28
IM Korea 2011-07-03 09:30:44 09:38:09 09:17:32 5
IM Louisville 2009-08-28 09:16:33 09:19:58 09:13:55 12
Challenge Roth 2009-07-12 08:55:02 09:17:17 09:13:13 27
Challenge Wanaka 2009-01-01 09:19:16 09:25:25 09:12:43 7
IM Western Australia 2008-12-07 09:03:05 09:18:42 09:11:11 15
IM Wisconsin 2008-09-07 09:06:59 09:07:33 09:10:11 9
Challenge Roth 2008-07-13 08:43:39 09:04:41 09:10:34 13
Challenge Wanaka 2008-01-19 08:54:08 08:57:39 09:11:29 3
IM Florida 2007-11-03 08:38:23 08:53:54 09:13:40 8
IM Korea 2007-08-26 10:01:01 09:45:01 09:17:07 8
Challenge Roth 2007-06-24 09:51:07 10:15:03 09:11:36 25
Challenge Wanaka 2007-01-20 08:55:35 08:57:53 08:56:51 2
IM Western Australia 2006-12-03 08:50:20 08:57:43 08:56:35 9
Challenge Roth 2006-06-24 08:47:16 08:59:57 08:56:13 18
IM Australia 2006-05-11 08:55:12 08:53:10 08:54:40 7
Challenge Roth 2005-06-24 08:28:19 08:39:06 08:55:40 10
IM Australia 2005-04-08 09:13:16 09:13:16 09:13:16 15

Results for Simon Cochrane (NZL)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
Challenge Wanaka 2012-01-21 09:23:15 09:18:27 09:18:27 9

Results for Finnbar Crennan (AUS)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Melbourne 2012-03-24 09:14:44 09:24:00 09:24:00 29

Results for Jon Woods ()

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Michael Gee ()

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Rebekah Keat (AUS)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Melbourne 2012-03-24 09:13:43 09:22:58 09:27:55 6
Challenge Roth 2011-07-10 08:59:22 09:24:13 09:28:39 3
IM Cairns 2011-06-05 09:26:31 09:35:26 09:29:15 1
IM Western Australia 2010-12-05 09:22:37 09:35:36 09:28:18 2
IM Louisville 2010-08-29 09:33:15 09:36:34 09:27:11 1
Challenge Roth 2010-07-18 08:52:10 09:10:59 09:25:38 2
IM Australia 2010-03-28 09:33:10 09:41:59 09:28:26 2
Challenge Wanaka 2010-01-16 09:30:41 09:31:32 09:25:33 2
Challenge Roth 2009-07-12 08:39:24 09:01:00 09:24:03 2
IM Australia 2009-04-05 09:21:33 09:24:33 09:30:26 2
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 09:56:01 09:54:10 09:32:27 17
Challenge Roth 2008-07-13 09:02:34 09:24:21 09:23:08 5
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 09:27:19 09:27:11 09:22:20 6
IM Australia 2007-04-08 09:12:58 09:16:42 09:16:42 1

Results for Joanna Lawn (NZL)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Melbourne 2012-03-24 09:06:53 09:16:01 09:34:11 4
IM Hawaii 2011-10-15 10:02:33 10:04:00 09:36:38 19
IM Texas 2011-05-21 09:32:19 09:38:38 09:32:56 9
IM New Zealand 2011-03-05 09:31:53 09:33:21 09:32:10 3
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 09:43:08 09:44:13 09:31:59 20
IM Germany 2010-07-04 09:36:12 09:49:05 09:30:08 6
IM New Zealand 2010-03-06 09:14:35 09:21:08 09:27:03 1
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 09:34:45 09:30:01 09:28:05 7
IM New Zealand 2009-03-07 09:23:08 09:31:42 09:27:44 2
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 09:45:33 09:43:44 09:27:00 14
IM New Zealand 2008-03-01 09:16:00 09:23:36 09:23:45 1
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 09:26:47 09:26:39 09:23:47 4
Challenge Roth 2007-06-24 08:58:25 09:20:13 09:23:11 2
IM New Zealand 2007-03-03 09:20:02 09:24:26 09:23:54 1
IM Hawaii 2006-10-21 09:32:48 09:28:28 09:23:44 7
Challenge Roth 2006-06-24 09:01:17 09:14:18 09:22:09 1
IM Hawaii 2005-10-15 09:14:53 09:14:20 09:25:38 4
IM New Zealand 2005-05-03 09:30:14 09:30:14 09:32:08 1
IM Australia 2005-04-08 09:34:04 09:34:04 09:34:04 4

Results for Carrie Lester (AUS)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Melbourne 2012-03-24 09:18:25 09:27:45 09:39:32 8
IM Western Australia 2011-12-04 09:32:44 09:42:12 09:43:34 3
IM Cairns 2011-06-05 09:34:56 09:43:59 09:44:11 3
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 09:53:23 09:54:30 09:44:19 23
IM Australia 2010-03-28 09:23:46 09:32:26 09:32:26 1

Results for Michelle Mitchell (AUS)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Australia 2012-04-29 09:34:57 09:45:11 09:43:15 1
IM Western Australia 2011-12-04 09:28:07 09:37:30 09:42:27 2
IM Cairns 2011-06-05 09:30:41 09:39:40 09:45:25 2
IM New Zealand 2011-03-05 09:50:04 09:51:35 09:51:35 7
IM Wisconsin 2005-09-11 15:16:08 14:51:39 14:51:39 16

Results for Belinda Granger (AUS)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Melbourne 2012-03-24 09:26:21 09:35:49 09:43:24 10
Challenge Roth 2011-07-10 09:12:56 09:38:24 09:44:16 5
IM Cairns 2011-06-05 09:44:41 09:53:53 09:44:51 5
IM South Africa 2011-04-10 09:28:59 09:41:45 09:43:52 6
Challenge Wanaka 2011-01-15 10:26:17 10:28:40 09:44:07 1
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 10:18:29 10:19:38 09:38:38 30
Challenge Roth 2010-07-18 09:15:25 09:35:03 09:33:21 4
IM Canada 2009-08-30 09:40:48 09:45:28 09:33:07 2
Challenge Roth 2009-07-12 09:12:12 09:35:10 09:31:39 5
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 09:56:01 09:54:10 09:31:11 17
IM Canada 2008-08-24 09:17:58 09:25:06 09:28:31 1
Challenge Roth 2008-07-13 08:58:08 09:19:45 09:28:57 4
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 09:37:54 09:37:46 09:30:14 9
IM Lake Placid 2007-07-22 09:40:20 09:33:45 09:29:17 1
Challenge Roth 2007-06-24 09:07:56 09:30:07 09:28:40 3
IM Australia 2007-04-08 09:20:25 09:24:12 09:28:27 2
Challenge Wanaka 2007-01-20 09:38:26 09:40:55 09:29:10 1
IM Hawaii 2006-10-21 09:35:48 09:31:26 09:27:00 8
IM Canada 2006-08-27 09:25:13 09:24:20 09:26:04 1
Challenge Roth 2006-06-24 09:10:27 09:23:41 09:26:30 2
IM Australia 2006-05-11 09:30:29 09:28:19 09:27:22 2
IM Hawaii 2005-10-15 09:28:16 09:27:42 09:26:58 7
Challenge Roth 2005-06-24 09:14:06 09:25:51 09:26:34 1
IM Australia 2005-04-08 09:27:19 09:27:19 09:27:19 3

Results for Candice Hammond (NZL)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
Challenge Wanaka 2012-01-21 09:58:39 09:53:32 09:52:57 4
IM Cairns 2011-06-05 09:43:03 09:52:14 09:52:14 4

Results for Belinda Harper (NZL)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
Challenge Roth 2011-07-10 09:06:47 09:31:58 10:10:59 4
IM New Zealand 2011-03-05 09:40:33 09:42:03 10:32:57 5
Challenge Wanaka 2011-01-15 11:23:15 11:25:51 11:25:51 4

Results for Emi Sakai (JPN)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM South Africa 2012-04-22 10:28:03 10:21:19 10:21:19 7

Results for Jodie Scott (AUS)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
Challenge Wanaka 2012-01-21 10:53:43 10:48:08 10:42:32 8
IM Wisconsin 2010-09-12 10:41:15 10:43:59 10:40:49 10
IM New Zealand 2010-03-06 10:24:51 10:32:14 10:39:59 9
Challenge Wanaka 2010-01-16 10:15:26 10:16:21 10:42:14 4
IM Australia 2009-04-05 10:13:05 10:16:21 10:52:17 9
IM Western Australia 2008-12-07 10:22:43 10:40:37 11:08:26 10
IM Australia 2007-04-08 11:00:23 11:04:50 11:27:41 16
IM Australia 2006-05-11 11:50:29 11:47:47 11:44:50 15
IM Australia 2005-04-08 11:40:49 11:40:49 11:40:49 8

Results for Amanda McKenzie (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Brasil 2011-05-29 10:37:24 11:02:07 11:00:20 11
IM Brasil 2010-05-30 10:33:12 10:53:14 10:59:47 11
IM Louisville 2009-08-28 10:41:45 10:45:41 11:01:47 10
IM Florida 2008-11-01 10:09:38 10:32:54 11:07:02 9
IM Canada 2008-08-24 11:13:05 11:21:41 11:18:53 16
IM New Zealand 2008-03-01 10:53:05 11:02:01 11:17:31 13
IM Canada 2007-08-26 10:56:14 10:58:22 11:29:01 19
IM UK 2005-08-21 12:41:57 12:23:43 12:23:43 8

Results for Rebecca Hoschke ()

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Melissa Rollison ()

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Ange Castle ()

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

IM Brazil 2012 – Predictions (Main Post)

If you are looking for additional information on the participants, you can find a full list of their pro results in the detail post.

Previous Results

Brazil is one of the quicker courses on the IM calendar. With a course rating of 12:59 it is similar to IM Germany or IM Switzerland, but still a bit slower than the really fast courses such as Austria or Roth. Last year’s race was won by Eduardo Sturla (8:13:12 – a bit short of Luke McKenzie’s course record of 8:07:38 from 2010) and Amy Marsh (9:07:49 – course record). Don’t expect any sub-8 or sub-9 finishing times!

Male Participants

The top four finishers from last year are back on the start list for 2012:

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Santiago Ascenco BRA 08:28:06 08:40:37 35
2 Eduardo Sturla ARG 08:29:30 08:42:03 41
3 Guilherme Manocchio BRA 08:44:04 08:56:58 116
4 Ezequiel Morales ARG 08:46:56 08:59:55 132
5 Oscar Galindez ARG 08:51:18 09:04:23 160
6 Andrey Lyatskiy RUS 08:58:16 09:11:31 207
7 Raul Furtado BRA 09:01:01 09:14:20 229
8 Lucas da silveira Pretto 09:02:32 09:15:54 236
9 Rafael Wyss SWI 09:03:07 09:16:29 242
10 Antonio Filho BRA 09:04:57 09:18:22 265
11 Mario De Elias ARG 09:05:12 09:18:37 269
12 Ivan Albano BRA 09:08:43 09:22:14 299
13 Luiz Francisco Ferreira BRA 09:10:04 09:23:37 305
14 Frederico Monteiro 09:13:05 09:26:42 329
15 Hiroyuki Nishiuchi JPN 09:13:16 09:26:53 332
16 Eneko Elosegui ESP 09:30:04 09:44:06 450
17 Lucas Cocha ARG 09:30:29 09:44:32 454
18 Sandi Ivancic SLO 09:34:14 09:48:22 478
19 Matjaz Kovac SVN 09:36:10 09:50:21 498
20 Christian emiliano Carletto 09:37:47 09:52:01 511
21 Santiago Amigo ARG 09:48:12 10:02:41 573
22 Ciro Violin n/a unrated n/a
23 Geovani Muchinski n/a unrated n/a
24 Thiago Vinhal n/a unrated n/a
25 Frank Silvestrin n/a unrated n/a
26 Igor Amorelli n/a unrated n/a
27 Antônio Marcos da souza da silva n/a unrated n/a
28 Gabriel Raff n/a unrated n/a
29 Rodrigo Ferreira n/a unrated n/a
30 Felipe De Oliveira Manente n/a unrated n/a
31 Guto Antunes n/a unrated n/a
32 Greg Close USA n/a unrated n/a
33 Frederico Carvalho Zacharias n/a unrated n/a
34 Marcio Roniak n/a unrated n/a

The winning odds show a bit different picture:

  • Eduardo Sturla: 35%
  • Ezequiel Morales: 24%
  • Guilherme Manocchio: 17%
  • Santiago Ascenco: 16%
  • Oscar Galindez: 8%

The odds put more weight on recent results, experience and performance on the course, so they are better at predicting who wins than the ratings (which predict a finishing time based on an athletes capabilities). This is why I’m giving the top-rated athlete (Santiago Ascenso) only a 16% chance to win (he only has three IM results) while the “slower” (even if only by two minutes) Eduardo Sturla (with a large number of fast results which include a couple of wins and great results in Brazil) is the overall favorite at 35%.

Female Participants

On the female side, the top rated athlete on the start list is Michelle Vesterby:

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Michelle Vesterby DNK 09:22:18 09:36:09 26
2 Sofie Goos BEL 09:30:26 09:44:29 47
3 Kim Loeffler USA 09:33:13 09:47:20 53
4 Sara Gross CAN 09:41:52 09:56:12 75
5 Dede Griesbauer USA 09:44:57 09:59:21 85
6 Ana Lidia Borba BRA 09:47:16 10:01:44 89
7 Hillary Biscay USA 09:59:43 10:14:29 139
8 Maki Nishiuchi JPN 10:08:50 10:23:50 170
9 Ariane Monticeli BRA 10:08:55 10:23:55 171
10 Fernanda Keller BRA 10:22:37 10:37:57 200
11 Silvia Fusco BRA 10:23:12 10:38:33 202
12 Mariana Andrade BRA 10:45:21 11:01:14 247
13 Alessandra Carvalho BRA 10:47:17 11:03:13 249
14 Vanessa Gianinni BRA n/a unrated n/a

As she is probably still celebrating her win at IM Lanzarote from last week, I don’t expect her to start. This is why I have two sets of winning odds (the odds in brackets are when Michelle is actually going to start):

  • Sofie Goos: 34% (30%)
  • Dede Griesbauer: 25% (22%)
  • Kim Loeffler: 28% (18%)
  • Sara Gross: 17% (10%)
  • Ariane Monticeli: 16% (9%)
  • (Michelle Vesterby: 29%)

Even without Michelle or any “rock stars”, the race looks to be quite interesting: With Sofie Goos there is a solid athlete that has already won an IM (Florida 2009). Dede Griesbauer has a Brazil finishing record of 2-1-2 (2010, 2009 and 2007), but is coming back from an injury. Kim Loeffler and Sara Gross have a long list of races, but to the best of my knowledge haven’t won an IM yet. Hillary Biscay is another well-known racer – she will probably be happy if she manages to get another podium spot after a long (at least for her) four week break following her third place in Australia. I give her a 32% chance for that.

Update: Dede Griesbauer is not racing in Brazil this year, but hopes to win in 2013. Updated the odds.

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