October 2013

Ironman Hawaii 2013 – Time Predictions

February 26, 2017

As before every race, I’m posting my predictions for Ironman Hawaii. I’ll be posting a lot more content over the next days before the race. If you can’t get enough pre-Kona info, please check out my “2013 Kona Rating Report“.

Previous Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Pete Jacobs	AUS	00:51:28	04:35:15	02:48:05	08:18:37
2	Andreas Raelert	GER	00:55:17	04:36:34	02:47:23	08:23:40
3	Frederik Van Lierde	BEL	00:51:36	04:35:25	02:52:49	08:24:09

Female Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Leanda Cave	GBR	00:56:03	05:12:06	03:03:13	09:15:54
2	Caroline Steffen	SUI	00:57:37	05:06:49	03:08:08	09:16:58
3	Mirinda Carfrae	AUS	01:00:06	05:12:18	03:05:04	09:21:41

Course Records

Leg	Gender	Record	Athlete	Date
Total	overall	08:03:56	Craig Alexander	2011-10-15
Swim	overall	00:46:41	Lars Jorgensen	1998-10-01
Bike	overall	04:18:23	Normann Stadler	2006-10-21
Run	overall	02:40:04	Mark Allen	1999-10-01
Total	female	08:54:02	Chrissie Wellington	2009-10-10
Swim	female	00:48:43	Jodi Jackson	1999-10-01
Bike	female	04:44:19	Karin Thuerig	2011-10-15
Run	female	02:52:09	Mirinda Carfrae	2011-10-15

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Hawaii is – 04:48.

Race Adjustments for IM Hawaii

Year	Adjustment	Swim Adj.	Bike Adj.	Run Adj.	# of Athletes	Rating	Swim Rating	Bike Rating	Run Rating
1993	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	0	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a
1996	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	0	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a
1998	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	0	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a
1999	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	0	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a
2005	-02:56	-05:19	03:05	-02:38	104	-02:56	-05:19	03:05	-02:38
2006	-04:10	-06:12	02:58	-04:09	114	-03:33	-05:45	03:01	-03:24
2007	-01:56	-04:26	-00:56	01:42	106	-03:01	-05:19	01:42	-01:42
2008	-06:55	-04:16	-02:52	-00:38	104	-03:59	-05:03	00:34	-01:26
2009	-12:00	-04:17	-02:32	-05:48	107	-05:36	-04:54	-00:04	-02:18
2010	-00:08	-04:32	00:57	-00:47	93	-04:41	-04:50	00:06	-02:03
2011	-00:15	-05:12	04:43	00:27	61	-04:03	-04:53	00:46	-01:42
2012	-10:04	-05:26	-02:49	01:09	65	-04:48	-04:57	00:19	-01:20

KPR points and Price Money

IM Hawaii has 8000 KPR points for the winner. It has a total prize purse of 650k$.

Male Race Participants

For an up-to-date version of the start list (including all previous results), please have a look at my post “Ironman Hawaii 2013 – Startlists“.

Rank	Bib	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Swim Rating	Bike Rating	Run Rating	Rank
1	5	Craig Alexander	AUS	08:20:39	08:16:14	00:47:54	04:37:21	02:48:16	1
1	4	Andreas Raelert	GER	08:20:39	08:16:14	00:48:22	04:39:11	02:47:57	1
3	14	Bevan Docherty	NZL	08:22:46	08:18:20	00:46:24	04:38:46	02:50:35	3
4	3	Eneko Llanos	ESP	08:23:22	08:18:56	00:47:41	04:36:58	02:50:46	3
5	25	Timo Bracht	GER	08:26:09	08:21:41	00:49:42	04:36:36	02:52:00	4
6	9	Bart Aernouts	BEL	08:26:49	08:22:21	00:53:20	04:40:59	02:46:59	5
7	2	Sebastian Kienle	GER	08:27:31	08:23:03	00:51:43	04:32:17	02:57:02	6
8	15	Faris Al-Sultan	GER	08:28:33	08:24:04	00:47:34	04:33:49	02:57:50	8
9	52	Andrew Starykowicz	USA	08:29:06	08:24:37	00:47:06	04:27:20	03:10:54	9
10	6	Frederik Van Lierde	BEL	08:29:41	08:25:12	00:47:49	04:37:10	02:57:10	9
11	32	David Dellow	AUS	08:30:46	08:26:16	00:47:05	04:40:28	02:57:54	10
12	19	Ronnie Schildknecht	SUI	08:31:43	08:27:13	00:51:19	04:36:23	02:57:17	11
13	29	Jordan Rapp	USA	08:32:30	08:27:59	00:52:22	04:35:45	02:57:42	12
14	10	Bas Diederen	NED	08:33:41	08:29:09	00:47:28	04:45:20	02:54:11	13
15	8	Andy Potts	USA	08:34:26	08:29:54	00:45:39	04:41:50	02:58:47	14
16	44	Tyler Butterfield	BMU	08:35:24	08:30:52	00:50:19	04:47:04	02:55:54	15
17	16	Chris McCormack	AUS	08:36:07	08:31:34	00:48:33	04:44:32	02:54:45	16
18	7	Timothy O’Donnell	USA	08:38:13	08:33:39	00:47:06	04:42:00	03:03:29	20
19	33	Ivan Rana	ESP	08:38:39	08:34:05	00:47:33	04:48:43	02:56:20	21
20	40	Maxim Kriat	UKR	08:38:46	08:34:12	00:50:42	04:45:24	02:56:13	22
21	47	Dirk Bockel	LUX	08:38:47	08:34:13	00:47:02	04:34:10	02:56:14	23
22	22	Jan Raphael	GER	08:39:04	08:34:30	00:48:12	04:44:27	03:00:00	25
23	55	James Cunnama	ZAF	08:39:45	08:35:10	00:50:27	04:42:58	03:00:10	28
24	42	Ben Hoffman	USA	08:40:20	08:35:45	00:50:23	04:35:39	03:04:30	30
25	53	Clayton Fettell	AUS	08:40:31	08:35:56	00:45:23	04:39:39	03:09:04	31
26	41	Cyril Viennot	FRA	08:41:32	08:36:56	00:50:54	04:46:28	02:57:18	34
27	31	David Plese	SVN	08:43:01	08:38:25	00:54:16	04:43:09	02:59:12	36
28	43	TJ Tollakson	USA	08:43:44	08:39:07	00:48:44	04:39:03	03:07:22	37
29	36	Andi Boecherer	GER	08:43:56	08:39:19	00:47:41	04:37:33	03:11:38	38
30	46	Marko Albert	EST	08:44:06	08:39:29	00:46:41	04:50:03	03:01:50	40
31	26	Per Bittner	GER	08:44:29	08:39:52	00:49:14	04:49:11	02:59:51	41
32	37	Igor Amorelli	BRA	08:45:58	08:41:20	00:48:05	04:48:09	03:03:48	45
33	49	Luke McKenzie	AUS	08:46:18	08:41:40	00:47:19	04:39:11	03:11:10	48
34	12	Jimmy Johnsen	DEN	08:46:35	08:41:57	00:50:30	04:49:45	02:57:35	50
35	1	Pete Jacobs	AUS	08:47:40	08:43:01	00:47:21	04:43:00	02:58:13	54
36	39	Christian Ritter	GER	08:48:24	08:43:45	00:47:46	04:44:47	03:05:09	55
37	30	Paul Amey	GBR	08:48:54	08:44:14	00:50:25	04:49:41	03:03:10	58
38	11	Luke Bell	AUS	08:50:12	08:45:32	00:47:52	04:41:09	03:14:27	65
39	38	Pedro Gomes	POR	08:50:16	08:45:36	00:52:11	04:51:40	03:08:21	66
40	28	Stefan Schmid	GER	08:50:40	08:45:59	00:53:52	04:47:33	03:01:36	68
41	23	Axel Zeebroek	BEL	08:51:32	08:46:51	00:47:27	04:44:06	03:12:42	69
42	21	Bert Jammaer	BEL	08:51:42	08:47:01	00:49:21	04:46:32	03:06:03	70
43	35	Daniel Halksworth	GBR	08:51:48	08:47:07	00:47:34	04:47:42	03:08:21	71
44	18	Brandon Marsh	USA	08:56:42	08:51:58	00:47:28	04:48:47	03:10:30	84
45	34	Horst Reichel	GER	08:57:48	08:53:04	00:48:06	04:47:50	03:04:07	86
46	20	Matthew Russell	USA	08:59:27	08:54:42	01:01:58	04:48:40	02:59:49	94
47	45	Thomas Gerlach	USA	08:59:41	08:54:56	00:55:00	04:45:00	03:12:24	95
48	50	Ian Mikelson	USA	08:59:55	08:55:10	00:50:32	04:53:44	03:07:25	98
49	17	Petr Vabrousek	CZE	09:01:44	08:56:58	00:54:41	04:52:33	03:04:36	110
50	48	Balazs Csoke	HUN	09:04:27	08:59:39	00:48:14	04:51:00	03:18:09	119
51	27	Dominik Berger	AUT	09:05:13	09:00:25	00:48:27	04:51:17	03:19:43	123
52	24	Mike Schifferle	SUI	09:07:21	09:02:32	01:00:25	04:51:42	03:06:25	130
53	54	Ben Cotter	CAN	09:16:10	09:11:16	00:56:34	04:53:56	03:15:44	157
54	51	Chris Legh	AUS	09:24:05	09:19:07	00:53:09	04:52:16	03:27:36	179

Female Race Participants

For an up-to-date version of the start list (including all previous results), please have a look at my post “Ironman Hawaii 2013 – Startlists“.

Rank	Bib	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Swim Rating	Bike Rating	Run Rating	Rank
1	111	Mirinda Carfrae	AUS	09:16:11	09:11:17	00:53:37	05:15:37	03:00:15	1
2	103	Caroline Steffen	SUI	09:17:30	09:12:35	00:51:51	04:58:55	03:15:42	2
3	118	Yvonne Van Vlerken	AUT	09:18:39	09:13:44	00:57:19	05:01:26	03:09:50	3
4	105	Jodie Swallow	GBR	09:19:05	09:14:09	00:48:11	04:59:53	03:25:34	4
5	102	Mary Beth Ellis	USA	09:20:17	09:15:21	00:51:15	05:08:02	03:13:54	5
6	131	Rachel Joyce	GBR	09:20:54	09:15:58	00:51:09	05:07:42	03:14:38	6
7	117	Camilla Pedersen	DEN	09:22:33	09:17:36	00:50:24	05:05:24	03:20:27	7
8	123	Anja Beranek	GER	09:25:51	09:20:52	00:52:23	05:05:05	03:22:07	7
9	112	Liz Blatchford	GBR	09:26:26	09:21:27	00:50:39	05:16:48	03:11:01	8
10	110	Sonja Tajsich	GER	09:28:00	09:23:00	01:02:34	05:09:59	03:06:23	9
11	114	Linsey Corbin	USA	09:28:40	09:23:39	00:57:52	05:12:25	03:10:09	10
12	107	Rebekah Keat	AUS	09:29:34	09:24:33	00:52:57	05:12:33	03:16:05	11
13	104	Gina Crawford	NZL	09:31:03	09:26:01	00:52:00	05:14:56	03:13:22	12
14	101	Leanda Cave	GBR	09:31:05	09:26:03	00:50:57	05:12:58	03:19:26	13
15	113	Natascha Badmann	SUI	09:31:49	09:26:47	01:00:36	05:04:26	03:14:46	14
16	108	Meredith Kessler	USA	09:33:48	09:28:45	00:50:36	05:12:53	03:21:47	16
17	106	Erika Csomor	HUN	09:34:57	09:29:53	00:57:35	05:16:05	03:12:40	17
18	109	Heather Wurtele	CAN	09:35:14	09:30:10	00:54:13	05:10:58	03:19:05	20
19	119	Michelle Vesterby	DEN	09:35:52	09:30:48	00:52:15	05:14:00	03:22:51	21
20	132	Amy Marsh	USA	09:38:09	09:33:03	00:52:05	05:06:14	03:31:34	24
21	124	Caitlin Snow	USA	09:39:06	09:34:00	00:54:52	05:29:16	03:03:38	27
22	125	Jessie Donavan	USA	09:39:21	09:34:15	01:07:13	05:08:29	03:16:49	28
23	127	Eva Nystroem	SWE	09:40:06	09:34:59	01:01:55	05:10:05	03:21:59	29
24	136	Kim Schwabenbauer	USA	09:40:26	09:35:19	01:02:46	05:17:07	03:16:54	30
25	121	Jennie Hansen	USA	09:40:29	09:35:22	01:04:58	05:16:43	03:11:08	31
26	126	Kristin Moeller	GER	09:40:41	09:35:34	01:03:05	05:21:58	03:07:15	32
27	128	Elizabeth Lyles	USA	09:41:26	09:36:19	00:58:39	05:24:14	03:08:40	34
28	122	Mirjam Weerd	NED	09:42:29	09:37:21	00:53:45	05:09:46	03:29:47	36
29	116	Britta Martin	NZL	09:42:32	09:37:24	01:00:14	05:11:55	03:19:30	37
30	137	Haley Chura	USA	09:43:29	09:38:21	00:48:42	05:20:07	03:30:18	38
31	129	Mareen Hufe	GER	09:43:35	09:38:27	01:01:09	05:08:38	03:25:56	39
32	120	Sofie Goos	BEL	09:44:18	09:39:09	00:55:26	05:20:52	03:20:13	41
33	133	Ashley Clifford	USA	09:44:57	09:39:48	00:53:35	05:35:40	03:09:56	44
34	115	Amanda Stevens	USA	09:46:09	09:40:59	00:48:58	05:19:59	03:29:20	46
35	135	Rebecca Hoschke	AUS	09:49:36	09:44:24	01:00:20	05:17:14	03:22:28	52
36	130	Anna Ross	NZL	09:50:18	09:45:06	00:59:37	05:20:01	03:21:07	53
37	134	Sara Gross	CAN	09:53:39	09:48:25	00:55:41	05:33:24	03:18:23	57

Spaniards in Kona 2013

February 26, 2017

My Spanish friends at BCNTriathlon.com have given me the honor to be part of their team of experts, with the fancy title of “Analista Larga Distancia”. As a little thank you note, I’m having a look at what to expect of the two Spanish Pros in Kona, Eneko Llanos and Ivan Rana.

Here is a graph of how the 2013 Kona men’s race may unfold:

Spaniards in Kona 2013

The graph shows how far back each of the athletes is possibly going to be from the front at various points of the race. I’ve also added dotted lines for the Top10, Top20 and Top30. The graph is based on previous results of all the Pro athletes, with a strong favor to recent results and results in Kona.

My main points for Kona 2013:

Early on, “fish” Clayton Fettel and “uber-biker” Andy Starykowicz will probably lead the race, but I don’t see them in the top 10 at the finish line. (In order not to clatter up the graph, I’m not showing them in the graph.)
Andreas, Crowie, Pete and Eneko should finish the bike pretty close together. My prediction system is “a bit dumb” by assuming the same speed over the whole leg and doesn’t include race tactics which may have a big influence in Kona.
This group should overtake the stronger bike riders around the half marathon mark. Freddie is another “wild card” here, he is nominally a bit slower runner but I’m sure that he won’t let the other just run by him.
I have Andreas as the strongest runner of the field – but anything can happen on race day especially when athletes are this close together and race dynamics and tactics come into play.

Llanos and Rana 2009

Let me add a few words on the two Spaniards in this race, Eneko Llanos and Ivan Rana. (The photo on the right was taken from Ivan’s website, showing Eneko and Ivan racing in the Spanish Championships 2009.)

Eneko has been in excellent shape this year, winning the regional championships in Melbourne and Frankfurt. However, he’s not had too many great races in Kona (though he did finish second in 2008), and three big wins in a year would be a very stellar season. I’m sure he’ll try his best to be in the mix – my predictions for him is that he’ll be either in the Top5 or DNF trying.

Based on his previous results, Ivan should finish somewhere around #20 (a few athletes nominally finishing in front of him will be DNFs), gaining a few spots on the run. But not all of his three Ironman results may be a good indicator of his real strength: After a disappointing race in Germany, he had to race IM Switzerland three weeks after Germany in order to qualify and probably wasn’t all that rested. If his true potential is similar to his first IM in Cozumel (and he manages to show that in Kona), he may finish as high as in the Top10. Depending on what his goals for 2014 are, he’ll probably be happy with that for his first Kona race and have a focused Kona build in the next year.