Challenge Roth 2015 (July 12th) – Predictions

Previous Winners
| Year | Male Winner | Time | Female Winner | Time |
| 2005 | Chris McCormack (AUS) | 07:58:45 | Belinda Granger (AUS) | 09:14:06 |
| 2006 | Chris McCormack (AUS) | 08:00:52 | Joanna Lawn (NZL) | 09:01:17 |
| 2007 | Chris McCormack (AUS) | 07:54:23 | Yvonne Van Vlerken (NED) | 08:51:55 |
| 2008 | Patrick Vernay (NCL) | 08:09:34 | Yvonne Van Vlerken (NED) | 08:45:48 |
| 2009 | Michael Goehner (GER) | 07:55:53 | Chrissie Wellington (GBR) | 08:31:59 |
| 2010 | Rasmus Henning (DEN) | 07:52:36 | Chrissie Wellington (GBR) | 08:19:13 |
| 2011 | Andreas Raelert (GER) | 07:41:33 | Chrissie Wellington (GBR) | 08:18:13 |
| 2012 | James Cunnama (ZAF) | 07:59:59 | Rachel Joyce (GBR) | 08:45:04 |
| 2013 | Dirk Bockel (LUX) | 07:52:01 | Caroline Steffen (SUI) | 08:40:35 |
| 2014 | Timo Bracht (GER) | 07:56:00 | Mirinda Carfrae (AUS) | 08:38:53 |
Last Year’s TOP 3
Male Race Results
| Rank | Name | Nation | Swim | Bike | Run | Time |
| 1 | Timo Bracht | GER | 00:48:58 | 04:19:59 | 02:44:32 | 07:56:00 |
| 2 | Nils Frommhold | GER | 00:48:39 | 04:15:16 | 02:54:03 | 08:00:39 |
| 3 | Eneko Llanos | ESP | 00:49:02 | 04:19:54 | 02:57:35 | 08:09:29 |
Female Race Results
| Rank | Name | Nation | Swim | Bike | Run | Time |
| 1 | Mirinda Carfrae | AUS | 00:55:24 | 04:46:48 | 02:53:27 | 08:38:53 |
| 2 | Rachel Joyce | GBR | 00:52:43 | 04:43:11 | 03:03:21 | 08:42:25 |
| 3 | Caroline Steffen | SUI | 00:52:08 | 04:48:14 | 03:05:05 | 08:48:42 |
Course Records
| Leg | Gender | Record | Athlete | Date |
| Total | overall | 07:41:33 | Andreas Raelert | 2011-07-10 |
| Swim | overall | 00:45:57 | Pete Jacobs | 2009-07-12 |
| Bike | overall | 04:11:43 | Andreas Raelert | 2011-07-10 |
| Run | overall | 02:39:43 | Rasmus Henning | 2010-07-18 |
| Total | female | 08:18:13 | Chrissie Wellington | 2011-07-10 |
| Swim | female | 00:47:27 | Ute Mueckel | 2005-06-24 |
| Bike | female | 04:36:33 | Chrissie Wellington | 2010-07-18 |
| Run | female | 02:44:35 | Chrissie Wellington | 2011-07-10 |
Course Rating
The Course Rating for Challenge Roth is 18:43.
Race Adjustments for Challenge Roth
| Year | Adjustment | Swim Adj. | Bike Adj. | Run Adj. | # of Athletes | Rating | Swim Rating | Bike Rating | Run Rating |
| 2005 | 18:02 | 01:08 | 13:32 | 05:29 | 9 | 18:02 | 01:08 | 13:32 | 05:29 |
| 2006 | 12:37 | 01:17 | 06:34 | 03:26 | 37 | 15:19 | 01:13 | 10:03 | 04:28 |
| 2007 | 22:56 | 00:52 | 10:30 | 06:52 | 28 | 17:52 | 01:06 | 10:12 | 05:16 |
| 2008 | 20:40 | 01:58 | 06:45 | 08:00 | 38 | 18:34 | 01:19 | 09:20 | 05:57 |
| 2009 | 25:59 | 02:04 | 15:06 | 05:07 | 41 | 20:03 | 01:28 | 10:29 | 05:47 |
| 2010 | 18:59 | 00:27 | 07:25 | 05:17 | 42 | 19:52 | 01:18 | 09:59 | 05:42 |
| 2011 | 20:43 | 01:49 | 15:24 | 05:19 | 34 | 19:59 | 01:22 | 10:45 | 05:39 |
| 2012 | 14:53 | 02:22 | 05:43 | 04:52 | 50 | 19:21 | 01:30 | 10:08 | 05:33 |
| 2013 | 21:13 | 00:27 | 13:24 | 04:46 | 37 | 19:34 | 01:23 | 10:29 | 05:28 |
| 2014 | 11:04 | -00:10 | 13:08 | -01:10 | 33 | 18:43 | 01:13 | 10:45 | 04:48 |
Male Race Participants
| Rank | Bib | Name | Nation | Expected Time | Rating | Exp. Swim | Exp. Bike | Exp. Run | Overall |
| 1 | 1 | Timo Bracht | GER | 07:59:01 | 08:23:54 | 00:47:33 | 04:23:14 | 02:43:15 | 8 |
| 2 | 2 | Nils Frommhold | GER | 07:59:48 | 08:17:04 | 00:46:17 | 04:18:22 | 02:50:08 | 3 |
| 3 | 27 | Clemente Alonso McKernan | ESP | 08:08:08 | 08:25:34 | 00:46:15 | 04:28:51 | 02:48:02 | 12 |
| 4 | 4 | Andrew Starykowicz | USA | 08:16:13 | 08:36:07 | 00:46:50 | 04:16:44 | 03:07:39 | (37) |
| 5 | 6 | Markus Fachbach | GER | 08:17:27 | 08:46:38 | 00:48:01 | 04:29:43 | 02:54:44 | 66 |
| 6 | 8 | Andrej Vistica | CRO | 08:22:12 | 08:46:44 | 00:51:05 | 04:31:54 | 02:54:13 | 67 |
| 7 | 5 | Horst Reichel | GER | 08:22:52 | 08:55:19 | 00:47:40 | 04:32:57 | 02:57:15 | 111 |
| 8 | 20 | Per Bittner | GER | 08:24:21 | 08:49:48 | 00:48:10 | 04:32:26 | 02:58:45 | 86 |
| 9 | 14 | Fredrik Croneborg | SWE | 08:26:37 | 08:47:53 | 00:50:43 | 04:40:19 | 02:50:34 | 77 |
| 10 | 9 | Roeland Smits | NED | 08:28:11 | 08:56:46 | 00:51:21 | 04:38:06 | 02:53:44 | 115 |
| 11 | 80 | Johann Ackermann | GER | 08:30:08 | 09:09:54 | 00:47:16 | 04:36:52 | 03:01:00 | (173) |
| 12 | 7 | Thomas Hellriegel | GER | 08:31:22 | 09:08:52 | 00:49:55 | 04:23:53 | 03:12:34 | (166) |
| 13 | 24 | Stefan Schmid | GER | 08:31:35 | 08:46:59 | 00:52:07 | 04:36:46 | 02:57:42 | 71 |
| 14 | 79 | Casey Munro | AUS | 08:33:22 | 08:56:56 | 00:45:49 | 04:30:56 | 03:11:38 | (116) |
| 15 | 16 | Sergio Marques | POR | 08:33:26 | 08:56:09 | 00:53:09 | 04:43:23 | 02:51:54 | 114 |
| 16 | 10 | Christian Brader | GER | 08:34:37 | 08:55:48 | 00:55:18 | 04:40:54 | 02:53:24 | 113 |
| 17 | 18 | Gerrit Schellens | BEL | 08:37:03 | 08:48:25 | 00:52:00 | 04:54:41 | 02:45:22 | 79 |
| 18 | 47 | Gyula Kis | HUN | 08:37:51 | 09:07:13 | 00:50:15 | 04:47:05 | 02:55:31 | (154) |
| 19 | 29 | Harry Wiltshire | GBR | 08:38:26 | 08:57:09 | 00:46:39 | 04:41:16 | 03:05:31 | 117 |
| 20 | 19 | Petr Vabrousek | CZE | 08:38:27 | 09:00:00 | 00:53:59 | 04:40:36 | 02:58:53 | 126 |
| 21 | 12 | Scott Defilippis | USA | 08:39:12 | 09:14:42 | 00:54:15 | 04:46:54 | 02:53:03 | 196 |
| 22 | 11 | Michael Wetzel | GER | 08:41:42 | 09:13:38 | 00:55:00 | 04:42:37 | 02:59:05 | 188 |
| 23 | 44 | Dave Rost | NED | 08:42:51 | 09:17:27 | 00:48:45 | 04:40:53 | 03:08:13 | (204) |
| 24 | 36 | Gergö Molnar | HUN | 08:44:08 | 09:04:15 | 00:48:39 | 04:43:20 | 03:07:09 | 143 |
| 25 | 15 | Sebastian Bleisteiner | GER | 08:45:03 | 09:14:30 | 00:51:00 | 04:45:19 | 03:03:44 | (196) |
| 26 | 17 | Jens Kaiser | GER | 08:46:23 | 09:17:45 | 00:56:06 | 04:37:54 | 03:07:23 | (204) |
| 27 | 69 | Marcel Bischof | GER | 08:49:08 | 09:19:43 | 00:55:03 | 04:43:56 | 03:05:09 | 216 |
| 28 | 25 | Christopher Bagg | USA | 08:49:28 | 09:28:28 | 00:53:13 | 04:42:08 | 03:09:06 | 251 |
| 29 | 42 | Niels Brandt-Joergensen | DEN | 08:50:37 | 09:20:42 | 00:55:59 | 04:50:43 | 02:58:55 | (223) |
| 30 | 22 | Blake Becker | USA | 08:52:12 | 09:31:47 | 00:51:32 | 04:47:24 | 03:08:16 | 268 |
| 31 | 26 | Andreas Niedrig | GER | 08:53:48 | 09:15:38 | 00:46:14 | 04:34:34 | 03:28:01 | 198 |
| 32 | 23 | Raul Furtado | BRA | 08:55:40 | 09:21:59 | 00:51:49 | 04:40:12 | 03:18:39 | 230 |
| 33 | 33 | Thomas Naasz | NED | 09:05:20 | 09:27:03 | 00:54:45 | 04:52:32 | 03:13:03 | 248 |
| 34 | 40 | Urs Mueller | SWI | 09:09:15 | 09:40:24 | 00:55:32 | 04:53:03 | 03:15:40 | (305) |
| 35 | 74 | Dan McGuigan | AUS | 09:12:40 | 09:55:00 | 01:00:22 | 04:42:07 | 03:25:11 | (362) |
| 36 | 48 | Kasper Ougaard | DEN | 09:16:59 | 09:58:52 | 01:01:30 | 04:50:31 | 03:19:58 | (372) |
| 37 | 35 | Michael Louys | BEL | 09:19:55 | 09:46:04 | 00:59:54 | 04:52:20 | 03:22:41 | (322) |
| 38 | 45 | Josef Krivanek | CZE | 09:33:59 | 09:59:15 | 00:57:24 | 05:00:15 | 03:31:19 | (374) |
| 39 | 75 | Kaon Cho | KOR | 12:29:03 | 13:11:32 | 01:00:07 | 05:02:32 | 06:21:25 | (486) |
| 30 | Olivier Godart | LUX | n/a | unrated | unrated | unrated | unrated | (n/a) | |
| 34 | Marton Flander | n/a | unrated | unrated | unrated | unrated | (n/a) | ||
| 43 | Robert Karas | n/a | unrated | unrated | unrated | unrated | (n/a) | ||
| 70 | Christopher Haas | n/a | unrated | unrated | unrated | unrated | (n/a) | ||
| 71 | Julian Mutterer | GER | n/a | unrated | unrated | unrated | unrated | (n/a) | |
| 73 | Henry Beck | n/a | unrated | unrated | unrated | unrated | (n/a) | ||
| 78 | Toumy Degham | FRA | n/a | unrated | unrated | unrated | unrated | (n/a) | |
| 616 | Christian Jais | GER | n/a | unrated | unrated | unrated | unrated | (n/a) | |
| 1164 | Carlos Silva | n/a | unrated | unrated | unrated | unrated | (n/a) |
Female Race Participants
| Rank | Bib | Name | Nation | Expected Time | Rating | Exp. Swim | Exp. Bike | Exp. Run | Overall |
| 1 | 51 | Yvonne Van Vlerken | NED | 08:52:15 | 09:13:35 | 00:56:35 | 04:44:53 | 03:05:47 | 5 |
| 2 | 52 | Gina Crawford | NZL | 09:00:47 | 09:23:47 | 00:50:36 | 04:59:54 | 03:05:18 | 16 |
| 3 | 53 | Anja Beranek | GER | 09:03:26 | 09:32:43 | 00:51:27 | 04:51:40 | 03:15:19 | (32) |
| 5 | 59 | Carrie Lester | AUS | 09:23:00 | 09:37:59 | 00:53:46 | 05:06:06 | 03:18:08 | 45 |
| 6 | 54 | Daniela Saemmler | GER | 09:24:01 | 09:49:19 | 00:53:36 | 05:02:11 | 03:23:14 | 61 |
| 7 | 58 | Natascha Schmitt | GER | 09:25:17 | 10:16:41 | 00:52:27 | 05:18:15 | 03:09:34 | (125) |
| 8 | Laura Bennett | USA | 09:27:43 | 10:05:55 | 00:51:23 | 05:02:17 | 03:29:03 | (105) | |
| 9 | 68 | Stefanie Adam | BEL | 09:35:41 | 10:20:33 | 00:54:41 | 04:57:05 | 03:38:55 | (136) |
| 10 | 60 | Ana Casares | ESP | 09:35:45 | 10:09:56 | 01:09:09 | 05:06:45 | 03:14:52 | (112) |
| 11 | 61 | Verena Walter | GER | 09:37:21 | 10:07:36 | 00:57:47 | 05:08:39 | 03:25:55 | (110) |
| 12 | 64 | Vanessa Pereira | POR | 10:14:41 | 10:44:57 | 01:01:19 | 05:30:05 | 03:38:17 | 168 |
| 13 | 65 | Cathleen Knutson | USA | 10:20:59 | 10:49:42 | 01:05:18 | 05:33:24 | 03:37:17 | (169) |
| 63 | Simona Krivankova | n/a | unrated | unrated | unrated | unrated | (n/a) | ||
| 67 | Katja Kern | n/a | unrated | unrated | unrated | unrated | (n/a) |
Winning Odds
Male Race Participants
This year we’ll see a re-match from last year: Timo Bracht ran down Nils Frommhold to finally win in Roth. As long as Andy Starykowicz is fit again after last year’s injury, he will make the race very interesting: He will be trying to build a big lead on the swim and bike (anyone betting on him going sub-4 for the bike?) and then hold on to his lead on the run. There are a few others that can contend for a podium spot.
- Timo Bracht: 36% (2-1)
- Nils Frommhold: 32% (2-1)
- Clemente Alonso McKernan: 19% (4-1)
- Andrew Starykowicz: 5% (19-1)
- Horst Reichel: 3% (31-1)
- Markus Fachbach: 2% (43-1)
Female Race Participants
Yvonne is the clear favorite, she has won here in 2007 and 2008. Gina Crawford another top athlete that is always good for a solid race. Anja Beranek will look for a good long distance race after deciding not to chase a Kona slot this year.
- Yvonne Van Vlerken: 54% (1-1)
- Gina Crawford: 18% (4-1)
Diana Riesler: 18% (5-1)- Anja Beranek: 8% (11-1)



